Morning Audibles

While visions of catfood sugar plums danced in your head overnight, here's why your computer screen looks green this morning... (Santa and his elves have been having high level talks to plan your future prosperity)...


Tuesday Look Ahead: Tax Compromise is Gift to Markets as Traders Await Santa Rally


EXCERPT:
"The proposed extension of Bush era tax cuts is another gift to markets and makes a year-end Santa rally even more likely.


President Obama Monday said he would support a tentative compromise to keep in place all Bush tax cuts for two years, as well as extend unemployment benefits for 13 months. The White House also added a reduction in the Social Security tax for workers to 4.2 percent from 6.2 percent for a one-year period.


Traders and analysts, for weeks, have been predicting an extension of all of the tax cuts, including those that keep capital gains and dividend taxes at a maximum 15 percent.

Translation: Traders & Analysts have been "predicting" this? Get right out of town! They sure work behind the scenes now don't they?


All this free bounty... Kind of makes you want to go right out and shop doesn't it?

TBP Gift Guide


EXCERPT (from the "The Wall Streeter who SHOPS when he's not BLOGGING about typical recoveries")

"Okay, I’ll admit it: I am a bit of a shopper.


I enjoy finding items, gadgets, books, etc. Not just high end items, but products that are fun, well designed, interesting or unusual.

If you have people on your list who are tough to shop for, here are some suggestions from me to you. (We did a few of these last year and they were well received. I can continue to post my favorite eclectic oddities if the crowd likes.)"

That's so sweet and nice... Anybody curious as to what's on CV's "wish list" oddities (besides the perfunctory Frobisher & Gleason Raspberry flavoured ice lolly, & "whirled peas" - which I'm still trying to visualize)



Umm... How about...?

- some more nickles (bitchez)
- a lap dance from Blythe Masters (for my silver bars & rounds)
- a years supply of catfood
- & a couple of 100 pound propane cylinders (to keep the electricity on in case of emergency)
- How about some Justin Beiber "snuggies"
- and a pile of wood to burn to stay warm

Of course, I don't want to cut down any trees to do that, so a stack of crappy books ought to do fine...


Fahrenheit 451 bitchez! (The "HYPE" of Audacity)...

Oh wait... Sorry to insult your sensibilities... You're right... We all should agree to be AGAINST any destruction of dissemination of thoughts & ideas (even if my only purpose was to stay warm & stay alive)...

 Obama administration to WikiLeaks: Documents' release would have 'grave consequences'

Assange making arrangements to meet police, lawyer says

Goback to shopping and having a Merry Christmas folks... The "teleprompter in chief " has assigned Action Jackson to the case so as to protect you from anything harmful reaching your ears...



CV needs a little Christmas jingle himself... So today's thread was sponsored by... OMG Bank (who reminds you to)...
"Just give them your money"



210 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 210   Newer›   Newest»
BinT said...

Well, last night is over. I warned you to pray to the Tepper God, but NOOOOOO. You continue to fall back on fiscal sanity and foolish hopes of a balanced budget. Ha ha ha ha, foolish human. The Tepper God looks on you and laughs. He is the god of Hope and Change.

Silly rational fiscal conservatives! Your money goes to die!

(Got gold?)................

BinT said...

100 dollar a barrel oil. That wasn't hard to say, was it? About like "tax compromise"....

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 90.21 +0.83 +0.93
Natural Gas 4.531 +0.043 +0.95
Corn 568.00 -5.50 -0.97
Soybeans 1288.50 -11.75 -0.91
30yr Bond 124.37500 -0.87500 -0.70
10yr Note 123.328125 +0.703125 +0.57
NY Gold 1427.1 +11.0 +0.77
NY Silver 30.445 +0.710 +2.36
Emini S&P 1233.00 +11.00 +0.90
Emini Nasdaq 2209.25 +18.75 +0.86
Emini Dow 11434 +81 +0.71
http://www.ino.com/

seems the SPX is having a hard time with the ~1225 level..

anyone else seeing that?

AAIP

ben22/triangle lover said...

our favorite shape, via Dan:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TP4L_8IbxhI/AAAAAAAAILU/AhScfGTdzVo/s1600/2010-12-07-TOS_CHARTS.png

t that's a pretty clean look, sort of hard for anyone to deny that wave structure it's just a matter of where that first wave is started , so it's just as clear what's coming next and the timing window is getting smaller.

we'll see if the market drops a present before this month is over or if it prefers to wait until the new year to get this party started.

CV said...

More "headlines" that I couldn't fit in the headlines...

U.S. announces $12 billion profit on Citigroup

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40542359/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy

ROR - What great inWestors... So I suppose that money is going to be returned to the taxpayer?

What about THIS money?

New worry for the US money supply as new $100 bills printed with flaws

http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/new-worry-for-the-us-money-supply-as-new-100-bills-printed-with-flaws

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2010/04/21/2010-04-21_treasury_unveils_new_hightech_100_bills_with_3d_security_ribbon.html

So let's see... "Counterfeit money is at risk of being counterfeitted"?

Government Motors ought to be able to come up with a way to keep those voting union workers employed with a new initiative...

GM Developing Car that Will Run Entirely on Burning $100 Bills

http://www.larelybeagle.com/2008/11/26/gm-developing-car-that-will-run-entirely-o-burning-100-bills/

Welcome to the USSA!


New worry for the US money supply as new $100 bills printed with flaws
http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/new-worry-for-the-us-money-supply-as-new-100-bills-printed-with-flaws
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2010/04/21/2010-04-21_treasury_unveils_new_hightech_100_bills_with_3d_security_ribbon.html

ben22/triangle lover said...

I doubt Europeans really want to find out how little money there really is.

AmenRa said...

Silver still pushing higher. JPM is curled up in a fetal position.

ben22/triangle lover said...

This might be interesting to some people:

http://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/12/Pershing-Sq.-pres-on-housing-11-3-10.pdf

I've looked at some depressed prop here in DE, problem of course is there would seem around here to be a huge amount of shadow inventory and I don't believe any of it is reflected in prices.

CV said...

@Amen

"Silver still pushing higher. JPM is curled up in a fetal position."

---

I added "a lap dance from Blythe Masters (for my silver bars & rounds)" to my holiday wish list up above... :-)

CV said...

@ben22 (8:21)

Pretty soon you'll just be able to flip 'em a few pre-1964 Rosies and get any house you want...

CV said...

WTI just jumped over $90...

Grandmas "catfood" just went to...

Cold catfood gazpatcho in the dark...

ben22/triangle lover said...

man, the silver chart, that's a sight to see

wow

cv said...

Nickles bitchez!

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1946-2007-Jefferson-Nickel-Value.html

AmenRa said...

MUST...DESTROY...ALL...BEARS...TO...CONVINCE...SHEEPLE

wunsacon said...

>> U.S. announces $12 billion profit on Citigroup

With profits like this, you don't need losses.

AmenRa said...

I wonder if China is saying "No mas". You're on your own and PD's end up buying 80% of the auctions.

Jennifer said...

Good morning! Funny -- last year's TBP post on holiday shopping was one of the few I commented on...haven't been over there in ages. Cold catfood gazpatcho -- think Martha Steward has a recipe for that? Thanks for helping plan my holiday menu! I briefly considered buying the effing dip in NFLX on Friday, restrained myself though, and am kicking myself now as it was up something like 5% yesterday. Ben -- I find Neely's time component to be the most interesting part of his analysisl. I remember the week or so correction in May of '09. It was the first significant pullback since the March low. Mish had a post where he said that the rally was over. Since he had said on the 9th or 10th of March that he could see a clear 5 wave down pattern which looked to be completed it was time to close shorts, I was paying attention. In retrospect, I wonder why he wasn't looking for an A-B-C at a minimum, since he was referencing EW a lot then. Anyway, that "correction" only lasted a week. Never seemed right to me that he could think the rally could only last 2 months when the fall lasted more than a year. It just didn't seem proportional. Okay, domesticity calls. Blech.

cv said...

@Amen

Is that 80% just a "symbolic" number (to reflect that number of things Obama has said he's accomplished since he took office)?

Anonymous said...

Let's get ready to ruuummmmbbbblllleeee.

Happy holidays all.

Excellent work CV.

Foghorn Longhorn
aka
The Stig

AmenRa said...

CV

OK 85.4% :-) (removing all references to Obama)

McFearless said...

CV,

80%...come on dude, Obama is about to take credit for helping the economy by extending the tax cuts for a cool, eh, we'll call it a trillion.

So we are now at least at 81%, and if you think he can't take credit for this because he didn't put it in place well.....better than Bush asshole, and no doubt in my mind that when the newest Rolling Stone comes out this will be part of the "With Us" events of the last couple weeks, oddly enough I belive when Bush originally put the tax laws in place it was "Against Us"

but hey, all the news that fits

and speaking of news, remember the economic news was supposed to get better for a few months to help put everyone at ease

well, I'd say that's been a 100% correct observation

AmenRa said...

I'm also thinking those insiders who couldn't sell are taking advantage of this push higher.

McFearless said...

well, so much for truncation on wave 5, no matter, count is still in place.

cv said...

@McF

Yeah you're right... 81%...

Because he crossed off "getting Oprah as a Kennedy honoree" last evening...

McFearless said...

in fact CV, the View probably puts him at 82%

next up

Are you Smarter than a 5th Grader or Big Brother moderator....suppose the latter would be more fitting.

AmenRa said...

All I know is that it's getting more expensive for the Treasury to issue 10yr and 30yr UST's.

karen said...

After posting last night, I knew better than to get up today.. that's why i couldn't open my eyes..

CV, your mind is limitless, I guess : ) like this market..

karen said...

Yup.. there goes TBT..

karen said...

hey, I'm in shock, tho! that GLD:UUP chart is still in play..

karen said...

well, just thru today as I said yesterday.. so my little miner that I sold off the other day has the cutest Cup & Handle on the daily: NXG

it is possibly a no brainer buy right now.. if that plays out of course.. but only one scenario can work GLD:UUP H&S or NXG Cup..

cv said...

@McF

I'm holding out for NBA commish...

When he gets that, he ought to be carved onto Mt. Rushmore...

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r87/kvartuc/ObamaOnMountRushmore.jpg

McFearless said...

Helmet 2 Helmet Czar

McFearless said...

and CV,

see you in the playoffs

karen said...

XRT on the 30 min is something else.. XRT on the daily is, too! LOL

You cannot look at that and not shake your head..

karen said...

XHB! another hilarious one.. even Tepper isn't buying those I bet..

McFearless said...

premium gas is about .32 short of $4 here in DE, regular unleaded is about 3.15 or so.

guess you could go to jersey, but it's getting up there in price

just sayin

karen said...

$gaso fell in price yesterday, ben..

McFearless said...

buying?

karen, rumor has it some of those boys are selling now....

think that's probably what bothered me most about that video of his, he bought LAST YEAR....it's way late in the game

gold otoh, maybe that's not even half way

should have figured when RP said he'd get a gold short position that he "intended to hold for six years" that we'd at least get another $100 an oz. before any pullback....looks like he'll get stopped out for 6% loss before the week is out.

AmenRa said...

Ouch: Hackers take down website of bank that froze Wikileaks funds.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/12/hackers-website-bank-froze-wikileaks-funds/

karen said...

stockcharts is down for me : (

McFearless said...

Karen,

no problem, you can probably get the info you need at Tim Geithner's blog.

karen said...

i think i'll just use e*trade's tools and not renew my stockcharts next year..

I-Man said...

Our price server has been down all day...

McFearless said...

I hate when that happens, at least twice a quarter, and then the phone wait is forever....and then you always get a new rep on those days when you call in

cv said...

Don't worry... CV has a beautiful new chart to show you all in a minute...

McFearless said...

xlf is interesting today

CV said...

@Mcf

new chart in thread

detect any "waves" in between those boxes, fibs, & ganns? :-)

karen said...

xlf was interesting yesterday! today it s*cks! LOL

McFearless said...

CV,

that's a nice chart man, that's the biggest question in my mind right now, should you count the start of this move from the July lows or not....I just don't know for sure but your chart would support the answer being yes

karen said...

just got into stockcharts.. now I see what you mean on XLF, BLACK!! now if it'll just close sub 15.07.. that will be pretty.

CV said...

SLV printed 30.00 on the nose...

karen said...

thanks for that chart, CV.. neat!

CV said...

@McF

The move off the July '09 lows, and the move off the July '10 lows appear to follow the same GANN trajectory (ultimate wave peaks)...

The difference is... It seems 'compressed' into .618 of a time ratio...

What's also interesting to me is that 1097 level...

I used it because that's the point (in '09) where the 'correction' started to come in off the top gann line...

Then - if you measure 1097 back to the July low, you come up with 161.8% of that number being near the April '10 highs...

Could it be that easy?

McFearless said...

@jennifer,

just read your post, no doubt Neely's time aspect is a big deal.

I think the thing that's been tough for all wavers was the initial move off the march lows into January this year.

that move up is hideous, there is no alteration between waves 2 and four, no real extended wave, wave 3 is a hot mess with all kinds of overlap....that was just awful to try and count that thing, time aspects would have been a big help for me trading certain things since I got out of all longs at 1k, luckily I rode a big portion of it up, but as of now I've left 230 S&P points on the table while the larger trend was up, which sucks.

I've sort of felt as though I've been flailing my arms all souped up on frou frou's since mid February this year but waves are pointing to me getting my groove back, somebody call Stella.

karen said...

zerohedge

build america bonds news spooking market

McFearless said...

CV,

I don't know if it's that easy, call Tepper about that.

Real interesting perspective though. My Gann work is basically non-existent, I know the I-man does a lot of work with Gann, it's just not a skill I've properly developed yet.

McFearless said...

Karen,

did you ever jump on that BlackRock bond call I gave you info on?

Lots of talkie on there about the build america bonds, and man it seemed everyone wanted them on that call.

karen said...

I tried but got put on hold too long.. figured you'd give the review : )

CV said...

@McF

Actually, I have to make a correction...

The FIB measurements were only with regards to the width of the PRICE CHANNEL between 1097 and the lower price channel...

Interesting how, on that gann slope, the July '10 lows were 50% of the price channel...

Now - If you do a fib of 1097 ALL THE WAY BACK to the July '09 lows, you'll come up with a price not too far overhead of where we are now... (around 1237.90...

karen said...

WASHINGTON—Extension of the Build America Bonds program isn't included in a wide-ranging tax agreement between President Barack Obama and Republican congressional leaders, Senate aides said.

The Build America Bonds program provides federal subsidies for taxable bonds issued by state and local governments. It is set to expire Dec. 31, but won't be part of a broad outline agreement to extend expiring income tax breaks that Mr. Obama announced Monday evening, according to senior Democrat and Republican aides.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703296604576005240613153726.html

karen said...

http://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/0/y35xrSJ11R0

Dec. 7 -- President Barack Obama said he would agree to sustain Bush-era tax cuts for high-income taxpayers in exchange for extending federal unemployment insurance and cutting the payroll tax by $120 billion for one year. Bloomberg's Peter Cook and Juliana Goldman report.

karen said...

jjc went bonkers today..

McFearless said...

that call centered around munis mainly as they had just been pounded the 2.5 weeks prior. all the guys at black rock were basically bullish America, I'll just leave it at that.

AmenRa said...

Wow TNX had a high of 30.90. Treasury has to be getting nervous about tomorrows auction. Will it break to 3.1% or higher?

AmenRa said...

No BAB means no more state and local help?

McFearless said...

went there again on sunday (jjc), got some gifts for all the ladies in my life

karen said...

if you watch that bloomberg video.. i am appalled at Obama's words.. what a load of cr*p.. and as partisan as you can get..

karen said...

ben, did you mean jcg?? i was referring to copper.

CV said...

Just think...

If we keep bailing out the likes of Citigroup... The "taxpayers" (yes the "taxpayers" - rolls eyes), seem to be making a profit of $12 billion a pop!

Just a hundred or so more of those and we'll have taken a lions share chunk out of the deficit?

Whaddya say? Let's pony up for some more bailouts if that's how it works!

McFearless said...

lol, I did, none of my wife sisters, mom, etc were interesting in copper this year, at least I don't think they were.

I-Man said...

He meant Copper Jewelry... its the new fashion rage.

McFearless said...

I'm so into this consumer recovery and the ben bernank finally making trickle down economics work all I can think about is shopping til I'm dropping

I-Man said...

You know you want some copper earrings, gurl.

karen said...

two must watch videos..

Pattycake Cats with Dialogue

Alcoholic Monkeys of St. Kitts

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well tax cuts and more spending...

I think I will just start my grandchildren working now, before the second grade so they can get a start on our new budget.

....So predictable..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

It is snowing like whodathoughtit this morning...

karen said...

It is 55-56 in my room.. I'm boycotting my heater this year.. Actually, my plan is to kill my silverfish.. my son is into it too.. and we have dinner by the fire at night.

karen said...

Bruce, can't wait for you fotos!

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/12/7/what-a-long-strange-trip-it-has-been.html

karen said...

Quote of the Day: They should decide to keep the tax cuts every week.

AmenRa said...

Ruh roh. TNX tagged 31.01.

CV said...

"the ben bernank finally making trickle down economics work all I can think about is shopping til I'm dropping"

The "hypocrisy" is that TWSWSWHNB (the wall streeter who shops when he's not blogging), is "in love" with the F411's of the world who post commments night and day about that bad old David Stockton and Reaganomics "trickle down"...

How that was the "root" of all these problems...

But THIS VERSION of "trickle down" is OK...

Look - I'm not exhonorating Reagan here... I'm just pointing to the fact that as long as the "clowns" of these people are in charge, then something that was silly and ill advised, is now the "way out" of the problem...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Put it in your book.

In two years Iceland will be wagging their finger at us as in "I told you so"....

There will be "I wanta be like CV" t-shirts sold in every kiosk in the country. Tilapia gardens will be in every schoolhouse!

The Judds will be singing country songs about the Good Old Days (in 2006!)

Great day though, cold as HE double hockey sticks...I'll try to take some pictures of the Ponderosa today Karen...

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/2003-versus-2009-rallies/

McFearless said...

CV,

indeed, that was the entire point of me stating that

McFearless said...

but hey, the Fed has to do something....right, we could have had another depression!

I guess that is then ok for the argument for why Reagan did it my guess is though that the Feds hands are being forced because of Reagan in some peoples worlds....

karen said...

Rosenberg: Don’t fight the Fed, indeed.

Since the first cut in the Fed funds rate on September 18, 2007 ...

• TheS&P500hasgonefrom1,520to1,223.
• Theunemploymentratehasgonefrom4.7%to9.8%.
• Industrycapacityutilizationrateshavegonefrom81.5%tobelow75%.
• The10-yearnoteyieldhasgonefrom4.5%tobelow3%.
• Housingstartshavegonefrom1.183millionunitsto0.519million.
• Medianrealestatevalueshavegonefrom$210,500to$170,500.
• Core inflation has gone from 2.1% to 0.6%.

Well done!

wunsacon said...

"We're all Detroit now!"
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/the-growing-foreclosure-crisis/#comment-140047

And now:
http://www.businessinsider.com/america-becoming-wasteland-2010-12#the-second-most-dangerous-city-in-the-united-states-camden-nj-is-about-to-lay-off-about-half-its-police-1

Hoocoodanode??

AmenRa said...

In case you're curious here's the link to the Irish Parliament broadcast: http://asx.heanet.ie/oireachtas/dail_broadband.asx

karen said...

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/12/07/the-100-hamster-wheel/

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/ted-turner-urges-world-leaders-to-adopt-chinas-one-child-policy-on-global-scale-2010-12

Anonymous said...

karen,

re: Turner..

it's like this:
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Agenda+21+population+control

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Agenda+21+population+control+Ted+Turner

AAIP

karen said...

Convertbond

Driven by fears of haircuts on debt, Eurozone senior-sub spreads are at record wides. iTraxx Senior / Sub Financials (bp) spreads now at 150

Anonymous said...

CV,

speaking of 'conditioning', are you a believer in the 'Shake Weight', as seen on TV?

www.sw4men.com

AAIP

karen said...

is this THE DIP yet?! JBTFD isn't as easy as it sounds if you can't pinpoint the dip.

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

72bat,

if you like that, esp. "...An economy/society dominated by marketing, instant gratification and a desperate (and highly manufactured) yearning for self-glorification is not a healthy society,..."

see:

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=silent+sound+spread+spectrum+

AAIP

karen said...

the 5 day, 30 min chart says the dip is at the 10ema.. 1227ish.. darn.. i guess i missed it again.

Jennifer said...

Karen -- there's a double bottom on the 1 min spy at 123.20 just a couple of bars ago -- I must confess, I bought this dip. Might only last for a few minutes though.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"the repayment schedule imposed on the Irish people smacks more of reparations than repayment"

..From the live broadcast of the Irish parliament as they debate the bailout this am...

I-Man said...

K,

About 80 pts away from my YM dip... not sure about ES/spx.

karen said...

sorry all.. I was being sarcastic about the dip..

Anonymous said...

Government, 3 pharmaceutical firms settle
1 minute ago

(AP:WASHINGTON) Three pharmaceutical manufacturers have agreed to pay $421 million to settle allegations that the companies reported inflated prices for numerous products, the Justice Department announced Tuesday.

The government says the companies knew that federal health care programs relied on the inflated prices to set payment rates.

The three companies involved in the settlement are Abbott Laboratories Inc., B. Braun Medical Inc. and Roxane Laboratories Inc.

The Justice Department has recovered more than $1.8 billion from pharmaceutical companies arising from similar unlawful drug pricing schemes, Assistant Attorney General Tony West told a news conference.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68974866786800

I love how these 'reports' always seem to miss the Amount of the 'Overcharges' that are involved...

anyone want to guess (?) whether it's, in this case, higher, or lower than U$D 421 MM ?

AAIP

I-Man said...

Dont hate the dip.

karen said...

the only dip i'm interested in MAYBE is gold $1350..

Anonymous said...

karen,

~1350/Au would be breaking the uptrend, no?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

AAIP

karen said...

heck no, mark.. uptrend intact at 950.. i was just looking at 1350 as a pullback on a revs h&s (that would be about 133 gld.. in about 2 weeks time.)

Anonymous said...

k-

~1350/Au looks better, here
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

AAIP

Anonymous said...

speaking of PMs..
here:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1

re: Ag, is that a Bell, We should be hearing?('''ringing''')

AAIP

CV said...

@AAIP (12:07)

While CV is not much into "gadgetry"...

The truth is... There is some "science" behind the theory...

I don't want to get into details about it, but I'll basically tell you it's not a NEW topic...

- it has been a technique used in yoga for centuries...
- and in recent "half centuries", even NASA explored with facets of the concept as a method to prevent muscle catabolism and/or atrophy for astronauts exposed to zero gravity environments for long periods...

I think the REAL distinction has to come when thinking of the apparatus in a muscle hypertrophy role (building mass)...

For that, you need two mechanisms:

- high fiber recruitment
- stress of the Type IIa, IIb, & IIc bundles

The "jiggly" part, nails the first of those, but it's hard to really define to what LOAD you need to meet the 2nd requirement...

Therefore, my "paper napkin" analysis would be that it would be a decent product to offset muscle catabolism, but you would quickly "run into a wall" as far as muscle hypertrophy is concerned...

I-Man said...

Funny ass commercial, if nothing else...

Cant get past the "jacking off" symbolism there.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

From the above:

"The central bank had forecast the recovery to begin in the second half of the year. The bank projects 2.1% expansion in 2011, after a 2.6% contraction this year. Growth is expected to gradually accelerate to 3% in 2013."


...This will probably be faster than we are growing in 2013...

I-Man said...

Dip Psychology 101

Only buy the dip that makes you think its safe to get short.


When shorting the rips before the dips, remember that they are only corrective, and cover where you'd normally want to add.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Shake weight SNL skit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1f48d2ROwbo

AmenRa said...

TYX may sniff out 4.4% before Thursdays auction...

CV said...

@AAIP (12:41)

A little "holiday" symbolism... (ringing)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDtB8AiVa8U

I-Man said...

LMFAO, Ra.

Thanks!

McFearless said...

I didn't see anyone link this,

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20Eclectica%20Fund%20-%20Manager%20Commentary%20-%20December%202010.pdf

also, if you draw a large channel with gold in big view it's going to take a huge drop to fall out of it, huge drop, possible it happens though I doubt very probable now, gold is still in a bull market.

Anonymous said...

this little one has been a good one..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOE.V&ql=1

should be good over the longer-run, as well..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

CV,

thanks, I hear that.

AR,

that SNL skit was too funny -- now, seeing it, little wonder that they picked up on it :)

AAIP

McFearless said...

a little gem from the HH letter that may resonate with this group and our little scuffle recently:

"have you learned the lessons only of those who admire you, and were tender with you and stood aside for you? Have you not learned the great lessons from those who braced themselves against you, and disputed passage with you?"

and later

"Sometimes it seems that next to being unequivocally correct in this world, the Fed has concluded that the next best of all things is to be clearly and definitely wrong."

and later still

"What I'm learning is the world laughs through its ass every day, Then just lies double time when the sh*t goes down....."

boy am I a HH fanboy if there ever was one.

McFearless said...

and also, I imagine under the section

The Rule of Society by the Wealthy

that he is talking about the one and only David Tepper.

CV said...

TBT... up 4%...

karen... are u on that bronco?

CV said...

@McF

When all is said and done... I got a job for Tepper making tilapia fillets and grinding the rest into fishmeal...

karen said...

CV.. no and i shoulda been since i pointed it out : (

Ben, thanks for the HH.. was gonna google him to see what he had to say : )

McFearless said...

NAV on BND yesterday was 81.45, it's trading at 80.96 today

dips and such....

McFearless said...

money flow has flipped bearish on bnd as it dropped below the 20 and 50 day and certainly the stock rally in the backdrop helped that

I'm starting to scale more money into there for some clients now....

still don't have much interesting in buying the long bond

AmenRa said...

...y'all seeing those 10yr and 30yr yields?

Anonymous said...

5-Year Treasury 1.709 +0.187 +12.29%
10-Year Treasury 3.118 +0.177 +6.02%
30-Year Treasury 4.37 +0.12 +2.82%
http://finviz.com/

AAIP

McFearless said...

yeah, BB is getting foiled by the market.....again.

CV said...

Looks like...

- Ireland is the next Greece
- Portugal is the next Ireland
- Spain is the next Portugal
- France is the next Spain
- and USA is the next France

McFearless said...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TP5d9uklmOI/AAAAAAAAIeM/XqVlvfOr18Q/s1600/Minis.png

RUT is also looking interesting here

from where I'm sitting in looking back this morning it looks like pretty much all the volume we got was selling volume

karen said...

TBT is making my day..

McFearless said...

"Republicans signed off on a payroll tax holiday, reducing the Social Security tax from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent for 2011. Because the tax is regressive — it falls on the first $100,000 or so of all payroll income — this is a progressive tax cut. It puts money into the hands of all workers instantly, and could provide $120 billion in stimulus in 2011."

So say you run a business and I'm some young idiot and I come to your shop and tell you

hey, I have a good deal, you spend 900 billion to get....wait for it.....120 billion, well maybe you get that much, it's around there, I think.

deal?

you know you are taking that right?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Exactly, Ben. Social security is bankrupt, so we pass something to bring in less SS dollars.

Monopoly money.

AmenRa said...

TYX over 4.4% (before Thursday of all things)

karen said...

the wealth effect: BreakingNews

Rare Audubon 'Birds of America' book auctioned at Sotheby's in London for record $11.5 million - NBC

karen said...

Bruce, on top of there being less flowing into SS because 10-20% of the employable population aren't employed.

McFearless said...

yeah, it really bodes well for these poor people that are wholly dependant on the monthly SS check

someone around here been talking about Cat Food

hell, even there you have to be careful, some cat food is expensive, our cat, oddly enough, won't eat the cheap stuff.

karen said...

but, in this land of milk, honey and lifetime unemployment benefits..

hey, when did the US go from socialist to communist?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I hope I haven't given you guys the wrong idea. I am almost always for smaller government and lower taxes. BUT, I am not for essentially doing things that bring in less revenue if you are not cutting spending AND you have massive and growing deficits. I am very disappointed at what was agreed to last night as it continues to ignore the massive deficits we are accumulating.

I don't like high taxes, I like even less excessive government spending...but least of all I like what we are doing to our collective future.

karen said...

ben, try black forest ham at $10/lb, cut up in little pieces.. my Baby loved that, god rest his soul.. he'd sit by the refrigerator and wail for it : )

McFearless said...

this stockman is a real negative nancy

I'm thinking somewhere someone has already commented that he's just a pissed off republican, as is anyone that used to work under Reagan that will state that we have issues today, seems the most common response to stuff like this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/obama-gop-agree-to-tax-breaks-but-%22we-need-major-tax-increases%22-david-stockman-says-535688.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,GLD,DIA,TBT,TLT,UUP&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

some Chris Christie Action:

http://blogs.app.com/capitolquickies/2010/12/06/video-of-christies-parsippany-slugfest/

these guys here, they must have bought all the dips since September

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KObzgw5ER6A&feature=related

I-Man said...

The government has a problem... they are addicted to money.

The last thing we want to do is give them more.

Unfortunately, despite this little gesture by Obama, the government will continue to raise taxes, because they wont do the alternative, which is kick the habit.

These fuckers are career politicians- they wont do a thing in the interest of the people UNLESS it is in their own self interest.

Period.

karen said...

consumer credit in 30 min

McFearless said...

karen,

our cat has feline luekemia so we have to buy some special dry food which is pretty pricey but it's all she'll eat, other than her diet also somehow usually includes a taste of whatever I'm eating, she loves ranch dressing, butter, cheesesteaks and yes, she loves ham.

McFearless said...

I-man,

I'd argue the whole world is really addicted to credit

it's the biggest crack pipe ever, can probably see the fumes from Mars.

I-Man said...

I'm not all bitter tho...

It aint going to stop me from making as money as possible...

I'll just give 80% of my money away before they can get their greedy federal hands on it.

I-Man said...

That was a nice little dip there, I'm out now though.

I'm actually entertaining a short entry here in a few, but it could get blown topside real easy in this kind of uptrend.

I dont like shorting this near the rhythm of the uptrend, but this could be a good B wave down off this mornings high.

Jennifer said...

I'm out -- felt weird to BTD. Worth it though...I think that dip just paid for Christmas.

I-Man said...

(I think thats what you call a "B Wave"... the second wave lower of a correction in an uptrend?)

I-Man said...

Atta girl, Jenn!

Make em pay!

Jennifer said...

Maybe all this tape watching is paying off, I think I caught the absolute low of the day.

I-Man said...

Its counterintuitive shit alot of the time.

There's a good chance this run wont extend higher here, so you sold at the right time.

karen said...

nice move in the 30!! as you said, I-Man, make 'em pay : )

Jennifer said...

Thanks, I-Man! Now I need to eat lunch before the kids come home...

Anonymous said...

"hey, when did the US go from socialist to communist?"

11/4/08

I-Man said...

If I was up more on the day I would short here.

I-Man said...

How ya like dem apples?

karen said...

guess what hasn't broken yet.. yup, that gld:uup H&S.. right shoulder in progress.. dying to know if it will get to the neckline ; )

Jennifer said...

Nicely called. Didn't take it, but not complaining. Think we'll close in the green?

AmenRa said...

Whoa who took the chains off the exit door?

karen said...

uso:uup and $spx:uup aren't so perfect.

CV said...

@karen

Karen! TBT 5.6%! :-)

Jennifer said...

That was quite a candle!

AmenRa said...

Consumer credit up 1.7%. So that's why they figured there would be a Santa rally for the retailers.

McFearless said...

big client of mine just called

let go from JNJ this afternoon

this sucks

I-Man said...

Not sure about the close. My gut says no green at the close, but it could close flat.

McFearless said...

the consumer credit reports are nonsense anymore, not even worth looking at at all considering the government has masked the trend there

see Rosenberg's coverage of the September data for starters on this front

karen said...

U.S. Oct. consumer credit up $3.4 bln
3:00 PM ET 12/7/10 | Marketwatch - U.S. consumers increased their debt in October by the largest amount since July 2008, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt increased $3.4 billion, or a 1.7% annualized rate, in October to $2.4 trillion. Economists had expected a decrease. September consumer credit was revised down to a 0.6% increase compared with the initial estimate of a 1.1% rise. The increase in October was led by non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans, which rose $9.0 billion or 6.8%. Revolving debt decreased $5.64 billion or 8.4%. This is the twenty-sixth straight monthly drop in credit card debt.

McFearless said...

I-man

boom!

nice call, tell me you got a little bit

that was sweet

McFearless said...

Neely count still looking perfecto as we head toward the close, it's just like he drew it out.

I-Man said...

Nah... hopefully nab a retrace.

Shit happens.

If I had made a few better decisions earlier today, I could have been able to take that, but I was down earlier, and caught a nice trade back to even on that dip, so passed it up.

It could have just as easily blown up in my face.

McFearless said...

"It could have just as easily blown up in my face."

alright, I gotta go, so for my last comment today I'm going to respond to this one with


That's what she said

AmenRa said...

Ben

Shake weight

Jennifer said...

Dow was at +6.66 there for a minute.

Matthew said...

I hope leftback had his compression trade on today.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

By the way, I-Man, You statement about the government being addicted to money is spot on. I don't think we'll do any real cutting in the next two years.

SOS

McFearless said...

ahab,

if you are out there, man have I got some stories about some people trying to do refi's lately

it's insane out there right now it would seem, totally insane.

McFearless said...

I think it's important to keep in mind that while it may appear that the amount the government spends is up to them, this is not entirely so

lets not forget we are a debtor nation, not a creditor.

now I really gotta go.

AmenRa said...

Bruce

Why do you think they extended UI for 13 months? Conveniently ends in Jan 2012 aka election year.

Eating Cat Food said...

Cvienne - If eating cat food means $10 a lb black forest ham and other expensive foods like Karen and Ben are doing/did for their cats.

SIGN ME UP!!!

Mangy Mutt

Jennifer said...

That was a fast gap fill.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Amen:

The republicans (which I admit I usually vote for when I vote) are hugely to blame for this, IMO. For the last two weeks, they've said they'd extend unemployment ONLY if spending cuts offset the money...yet, when it comes down to the finish line...SOS. No spending cuts. More magic money...

Humbug...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think some big Asian country must be selling treasuries today...maybe the biggest Asian country...

I-Man said...

It was fun shorting again this afternoon... cant even remember the last time I threw resistance fib's on a 5min chart.

Was able to catch two 10 tick-ers during the last swing, but not the beef. There was a 50 tick swing down from the lower high, would've made my week.

I'll learn to trust the instincts in time...

Andy T said...

Anyone catch Obama's press conference where he outlines what his "job" is?

Let's just say this....I don' think he knows what his "job" is supposed to be.

Andy T said...

The President's real job is pretty straightforward...

"preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

AmenRa said...

Is BB shaving his beard and cutting off all of his hair so he can disappear into the night?

Jennifer said...

Whoa...check out the AH action in NFLX! Whoo hoo -- tomorrow might be fun!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Amazing little drop in commodities today with the increase in interest rates. If rates continue to go up...I would be Leftback's pacifier that equities are going down...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

bet

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

NFLX CFO is leaving. He had been selling his shares like mad. Getting out while he can.

I-Man said...

Where is LB?

ben22 said...

Bruce,

not a very good bet, odds don't work in your favor on it anyway since those are just tendencies, when rates went up in 2009 stocks went up too, same thing from 03-07. You could see even the contrast doesn't work, we'd assume lower rates means stocks up, but of course we just had 2008, and stocks crashed too. Of course, this didnt' stop David Kostin in that video at BR's from citing this as a "reason to be bullish in 2011" right after his number 1 reason, which is The Economy.

I guess they don't have a research team at GS, which is odd because he mentioned in the interview that they "look at history"

I look at history sometimes too:


1929-1932: rates down, DOW stocks down 89%
1989-03/2003 Nikkei, rates down, stocks down 80%
03/00 - 10/02 Nasdaq, rates down, naz down 78%

ben22 said...

AT,
4:16

I saw parts of it, what I caught was

Blame Bush
Blame Republicans in there now, especially Mitch McConell and Tan John
A flat out lie that he followed through on all his campaign promises
a lot of finger wagging
some hilarious innumeracy in relation to what the "average family" saves from the tax cuts
most important, it's the confidence that by 2012 things will be better

as for defending the constitution, this asshole extended some of the worst parts of the Patriot Act, it would seem he'd much prefer to destroy it than defend it, remember that the debate stopped when "the people" elected him.

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