Wheat prices jumped the most in seven weeks as excessive rainfall threatened to reduce grain quality and delay the harvest in Australia, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. Rice futures rose the most since August.
Areas of New South Wales, the biggest wheat-producing state, got more than 5 centimeters (2 inches) of rain in the past 24 hours, according to data from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. The three months ended Nov. 30 were the country’s wettest on record, the agency said. The harvest may be four weeks behind normal, said GrainCorp Ltd., the top bulk-wheat handler in the eastern region.
“There is continued wet weather in eastern Australia during the harvest, and forecasts are adding additional precipitation out for the next two weeks,” said Jim Hemminger, a risk-management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing in Chicago. “Because of the adverse weather, the quality is going to be poor, so it may become feed” for livestock, he said.
bottom thread, yeah, I think the Jackass movies are hilarious and also disgusting too
There are a few skits that made me really sick, the toy car I think on the second one was nasty, most of them are hilarious though, imo.
My wife went to high school with several of those guys, some of her friends are pretty close to Bam and Rab Himself. I've seen him at a bunch of parties we've gone to here, seems like a good dude, very quiet never sticks around very long, and he's really small.
it would appear that DT's video was not only loved by Bruce
lots of people have adopted that mentality, it was linked twice here yesterday, John E. is flying back into the market now.....you'd have to be an idiot not to ....right?
don't believe the Toll headlines: HORSHAM, Pa. (AP) -- Toll Brothers Inc. posted a surprise fiscal fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, helped by a large tax benefit. But revenue slipped and signed contracts declined 27 percent amid a weak housing market.
WASHINGTON ― NASA will hold a news conference Thursday to discuss an astrobiology finding that will impact the search for evidence of extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life in the universe.
- World Cup 2018/2022 hosts announced today at 10:30... (hear that mcf? - that's like, the next best thing to "the Olympics"... Get ready to BUY THE FUCKING DIP on EM ETF's...
- Texans - Eagles (tonight)
- Le Bron faces the music in Cleveland tonight
See? There's NO POSSIBLE WAY the world ends until all these things have been achieved...
I'm sure you caught it if you watched the video yesterday...
But somewhere in there... Nenner had it that TNX would hit 4.00% again (probably within the next few months) before dropping back again to it's most recent lows...
"At the time we where discussing bond yields as the Greek crisis went into overdrive but Studzinski said our discussion missed the point.
"People are not talking about young people failing to find work and the impact unemployment will have on the individual's dignity, prospects for the future and society," said Studzinski who has spent the last few years trying to get to grips with the AIG disaster and advising on major M&A deals across the world.
The conversation moved on over the coming months and resulted in CNBC and Blackstone creating the Global Youth Employment Agenda."
...I think this is a great idea! No one over the age of 14 will be allowed to make catfood for us elderly who, do to ZIRP, have no money to spend at Taco Bell.....Youth of the world, unite!
sorry to maintain my bearish stance in the face of overwhelming "evidence" to buy every dip.. but did you take a look at the monthly SPY candle for November.. hasn't been one like that in that place in over ten years.
"Er, someone gave him a fruitcake for Xmas in the past, me thinks..."
Bruce,
I've seen several charts with ss activity overlapped on to stocks
they are funny, you are right, if you traded them you'd likely be laughing all the way to the bank! it's been a very accurate predictor at certain degrees of trend.
I'd be very careful about dismissing such things. at the very least I'd suggest looking into it for yourself, if you still the draw the conclusion it's silly then that's that, but to dismiss it out of hand would be a major mistake, imo, of course.
I'll see if I can find the 100 year chart EWI published of this with the dow for free somewhere, it might spark some interest.
If I was a bond trader and the world wasn't ending, I would probably want to layer into some yield, not just buy Ts at 3.00% but put on some HY credit as well. TNX may stabilize around 3.00% as traders take off short term bets in equities, but you can't shake the feeling that it is headed higher from here....
LB likes the HY and the NKY, but the commodity trade doesn't make much sense, even if we have a robust US recovery. A more measured growth rate doesn't translate to a screaming commodity inflation, but a steadily improving dollar will lead to some disinflation in raw materials.
30y auction next Thursday, 10y auction Wednesday. Long bonds may be weak all the way out to the middle of next week.
EWI thoughts: It's common knowledge that if you look directly at the sun, you go blind; or at the very least, become visually impaired. In matters of finance, however, "looking" directly at the solar surface actually heightens one's predictive vision. In over 100 years of data, the most "illuminating" indicators of major stock market turns include more than the usual contenders: Cycles, sentiment, and wave structure. They're also Sun "Burps." Our personal records of this phenomenon go back to a 1956 study by Wave Principle pioneer Charles Collins. Then, in the September 2000 Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter updated the original thesis in his own piece titled "Sunspots and the Wave Principle." Here's the main premise: An increase in the frequency and intensity of solar flares coincide with a rising stock market, into an overlapping peak in both sunspot activity and soaring averages. As sun flares fall off, so do stock prices, ending in a synchronized period of solar and economic cooling. At the time of the September 2000 Theorist, our analysts applied the loss of upside momentum in sunspot production to their overall bearish call for stocks and wrote: "On the basis of a pending peak in the sunspot cycle... investors could avoid the most serious stock market declines" to come. The deepest bear market since the Great Depression followed, before rebounding in 2002. ("Quiet" Sun Sends Explosive Message: The May 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast makes a compelling case as to why the current solar flameout is a dark sign for stocks. Get the full story today) Flash ahead to today: From their respective 2000 highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains 40% down and the NASDAQ, 70% in the red. AND -- as 2008 saw equities endure their worst annual close since the Depression, the year also saw sunspot activity sink into its own dark state. To wit: 2008 was the quietest year for solar activity since 1913 to postpone a long-anticipated uptick even further. "'Quiet' Sun Baffling Astronomers," reads a recent BBC News. "Sunspots, Where Have They Gone?" asks another popular news site. (Examiner.com) Well, while the lull in solar flares has "worried" heliologists glued to their telescopes -- our analysts see the solar flameout as fitting perfectly with the previous dimming of stocks. On this, the May 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presents a powerful close-up of sunspot activity and the stock market since 1900.
Sorry that's a little long:
I normally wouldn't link wiki, but there are charts here:
The consensus jobs number tomorrow is now +165K. So there is a chance that the actual number might disappoint (think local government and state layoffs). That would provide an excuse for some profit taking. OTOH, if that number EXCEEDS 200k, there will be a bond slaughter, an equity squeeze and then a sell-off after that.
Of course you should BUY THE EFFING DIPS.... until the liquidity pump is reversed, there is only one way for this market to go.
LB doesn't think we can get bearish until we see a 4.00% TNX, although we will already be much more cautious a little before we get there. After QE2, TNX 3.50% may be the new 4%....
You don't have to LOVE this market to be long it. Of course, LB isn't always long, except when Karen is sunbathing (which is pretty often, apparently).
CV, my trip was uneventful. No black helicopters over LB's place yet.
Here... I'm going to put the last nail in my coffin and publish my own "secret" WIKILEAKS document...
THE BANKS ARE ALL INSOLVENT!
There! That ought to get me life in Leavenworth or accidentally "killed" by an unidentified passing motorist (in a GM car) the next time I enter a crosswalk! :-)
GM giving up yesterday's gains.. VRA (rolling my eyes) probably peaked yesterday and will get a confirming candle today.. nflx finally rewarding the shorts..
lol, the numbers have been bad on NFP, why would anyone think that's a conspiracy, it's more like reality.
none of these data series actually can quantify everything properly, not claims, not GDP, nothing, even after the revisions, but I don't recall seeing a divergence like that between those two before say the last 18 months, do you?
That's odd. I've always felt ADP was a good barometer for small businesses. Since they process the paychecks it would seem to be more accurate. NFP (like most government indicators) gets massaged. IMHO
AR.. "ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States every pay period across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies, it has a unique and significant perspective on the U.S. labor market. "
"..the ADP National Employment Report is based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that utilizes approximately 340,000 of ADP's more than 500,000 U.S. business clients, representing roughly 21 million employees working in all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) private industrial sectors. "
"The methodology used to develop the ADP National Employment Report not only uses a subset of ADP's total payroll database, IT ALSO RELIES ON A NUMBER OF ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES that FILTER out anomalous data and volatility, ADJUST for seasonality, and ALIGN disparate payroll period dates. In doing so, ADP's aggregate and anonymous payroll data is developed into a unique sample of monthly employment level, and change in employment, that is not reflective of ADP's entire client base. "
CV, just to confirm, the line is -5000 he does that chalk, so not 50:1, but 51:50. They are saying its a lock. That sounds like a short to me, maybe the guy will show some class for once in his life?
Seriously, most peep don't understand that bonds go up and down in value inversely with rates, they barely understand the principal and interest thing....
I still believe it's all the same markets, just not a 1/1 correlation.
I have not yet abandon this theme.
So, yeah, what you say makes perfect sense.
That said, GN is getting very bearish the pm's, but he does not provide charts on silver, to my knowledge.
AT reminded me earlier this year when i made some bonehead trades in silver that it's a small market, and easily cornered, probably best to own the physical if you want or just stay away from the short side with this kind of momentum.
I rather think that QE and those performing it and trying to tell you it's based on "analysis" THAT it is the dark side, a grand expirement, nt just someone trying to interpret data from charts, but to each his own.....
I tend to get my interest peaked in things that the herd rejects without any thought at all, I usually want to then run in that direction
If GN is getting beraish on "pm"'s... then that, most likely, ties straight into his counts on SPY...
I personally think that the huge move in silver since the summer was a little "catch-up"...
IOW... The pricing (denominated in silver) towards broader equity prices... It was out of whack... Now it's closer to being IN WHACK...
I think they'll move closer in tandem from here on forward (with silver being the higher beta)...
But here's the catch...
The next MAJOR bottom in, say, the DOW... (just for shits & grins - let's say it's a "Nenner-ish" retest of something resembling the 2009 lows)... or maybe higher... who knows... I've tossed out 840 SPX many times before...
But think that silver hit an "8" handle on the 2008 shakeout... My guess is that you're not going to see "8"... Instead, you'll see something like $16-$18...
THAT's your silver DEFLATION... Then, on the next round of monetization... I mean well HELL... If it simply "mirrors" the '08 - '10 move (about 350%)...
You might be talking $60-$65 silver in a few years...
YOU JUST NEED TO BUY THE FUCKING DIP - lol
Oh, and yeah... The S&P correlation, means while silver is going from 840 to 1,100... Silver is going from $18 to $63...
ben - have you had any clients like those referenced in this comment at zerohedge on Max Keiser's Plan To Destroy JP Morgan Goes Mainstream, After The Guardian Posts His "Silver Squeeze" Thoughts ? by Cognitive Dissonance on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 10:27 I've been pounding away at all my clients to please, please, pretty please purchase some physical Gold and Silver for at least the last 5 years. Over the past 3 weeks, 5 clients have come in requesting distributions to do precisely that. And we're talking 5 to 10% of assets, not a few thousand dollars.
Well that's what I'm trying to say... (what is money)...
I've been joking with ahab recently that they ought to come out with an iPhone app that has an algo that displays the DOW & S&P (in "gold", or in "silver")...
Now that JCT & the Bernank have decided to race to the bottom on FIAT... Maybe the next coupkle of years, behind the scenes (and in plain sight), will be the market trying to figure out the price of everything in metals...
This is hilarious. As if most JOHN E's are going to have a million when they retire... LB LOVED the bit about 7% annual returns, b/c that is exactly what BRIAN has delivered for JOHN E over the last dec.... oh, I guess not... :-(
Look! CV's "catfood" meme is going viral on other blogs!...
---
by patience... on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:17 #772138
I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food because her unemployment had run out. The reds won't extend benefits and the blues won'tgive the deserving rich a tax break.
Doubtful, time for a compromise.
Login or register to post comments by Ragnarok on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:27 #772150
I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food because her unemployment had run out.
What's a grandma doing on unemployment? What about her lifelong savings? What about her SS? What about her family? Sounds like Grandma liked to party and made a lot of enemies.
You consider an S corporation holder who makes $250,000 for a family of 4 rich? I say make $2MM and less permanent and everything else expire.
Login or register to post comments by SilverRhino on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:24 #772163
>> I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food
Grandma is an idiot then. Pinto beans, onions and flour are both CHEAPER than cat food.
Login or register to post comments by Dr. No on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:32 #772198
But if Grandma is like other crazy pet owners, she doesnt want her cat eating beans. She must choose between grandma food and cat food, so she keeps the cat happy.
the dollar has no simultaneous actuality and definition, it's nothing more than an obligation of the United States to do exactly nothing, dollars are labeled "notes" b/c they are debt contracts, but it is not a note FOR anything.
The plan is to have equities BOX THE EARS of bonds for a few months, that's British for KICK ASS, dudes. Then when JOHN E has been sitting in bonds [b/c THE MISSUS told him to QUIT LOSING THE MONEY SHE INHERITED FROM HER SAINTLY AND FRUGAL AUNT EDITH], and then JOHN E sees he has made JACK, while HIS BUDDY has made a cool 10% in THE MARKET, he will be calling BRIAN and BEN, saying GET ME INTO THIS MARKET, and then pretty soon after that we hit 4% on TNX and then the SPX peaks... then one day JOHN E wakes up and it's all...
Putin promised some piping hot Polonium tea as a treat for anyone who voted against the Russian bid for the 2018 World Cup. Nice chap, that Vladimir...
Thursday, December 2, 2010 Fed Trying to Make It Harder for Homeowners to Fight Mortgage Fraud by Gutting Truth In Lending Laws
As reported by the Washington Post, the Fed turned a blind eye for years and allowed massive fraud in the mortgage market.
After Alan Greenspan changed his mind and admitted that financial players commit fraud unless laws are enforced (see this and this), many hoped that the Fed would start cracking down on fraud a little bit.
Unfortunately, the Bernanke Fed is continuing to try to sweep fraud under the rug. As just one example, the Fed has been consistently trying to downplay the significance of mortgage fraud, claiming it's not widespread and that nothing much really has to be done about it.
Now, the Fed is proposing a change to the Truth in Lending laws which would make it harder for homeowners to fight mortgage fraud. The Fed's proposal can be read here, starting on page 58541.... http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/12/fed-trying-making-it-harder-for.html
"In order to prevent the banks from collapsing when they were forced to buy back the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities from Europe, the deliberate decision was made by the US Government to allow the banks to seize private American homes to preserve their capital structure. But the US Government could not just grab homes the way Roosevelt had grabbed gold. Even the TV-numbed American people would have awakened at that and hanged the politicians from the streetlights. So the US Government and the bankers needed to find a way to allow the banks to grab the property, but make it look like it was the homeowners' own fault.
But homeowners are daring to fight back, and that just cannot be allowed, in the view of Wall Street!
Yes Virginia, there really are monsters, and they wear Armani jackets and Rolex watches and they gaze into their mirrors and admire the reflections of incarnate gods, to whom we mere mortals are but tokens in the great game of global greed.
We shall have no more debate about a civil war. It is already upon us! Millions of Americans have been driven from their homes by the invaders; not with guns and bayonets but with pens and papers and corrupted law. The American victims of this war already wander the desolate byways of this land, outcast from their own friends and families, made as destitute and hopeless as any refugee fleeing any tyrant in history. The war for America is already at your front door. What will you do?" http://whatreallyhappened.com/
I'm careful to state that John E. has been hiding out in "bonds"
John E did buy bonds, but mostly muni's and high yields according to the data flow, it's not as if they flocked into govvies in the same way, that wasn't a safety trade for John, in other words, they were looking for yield.
"...The Hackett Group's latest research found that close to 1.1 million jobs in corporate finance, IT, and other business functions were lost at large U.S. and European companies in 2008 and 2009 due to a combination of offshoring, productivity improvements, and lack of economic growth. Over 1.3 million additional jobs will disappear by 2014, The Hackett Group found, with offshoring becoming a larger and larger factor each year. These figures represent annual job loss rates of close to twice those seen from 2000 to 2007.
Corporate finance in particular is now seeing an acceleration of this offshoring trend. While IT dominated the mix of business function jobs lost to offshoring since 2000, growth in IT offshoring is now leveling off. By contrast, the total number of jobs lost to offshoring in corporate finance is expected to grow by a compound annual rate of about 20 percent between 2010 and 2014. In 2014, the annual number of finance jobs lost to offshore will be higher than the IT figure for the first time.
The Hackett Group's latest Book of Numbers research, “Global Business Services (GBS): Redefining the Enterprise Engine,” finds that companies are looking at their overall Service Delivery Models and recognizing that the challenging economic times have presented them with a compelling environment to make change that will enable their business to compete globally for the long term. According to The Hackett Group's analysis, one of the most important of these changes is the offshoring trend, which is being accelerated by the fact that many companies are now creating their own GBS organizations in India and other low-cost labor markets.
GBS organizations embrace both outsourcing and their own internal offshore operations, which remain owned and operated by the companies, to enable a broad array of functions to be moved to low-cost labor markets and managed in an integrated fashion. Over the past few years, many companies have become more mature in their use of GBS organizations, expanding them beyond a basic shared services approach to manage operations in multiple functional areas such as IT, finance, procurement, and human resources. By offering economies of scale, scope, and skill, this approach enables companies to drive cost reductions and lower headcounts. Companies are also looking to enable global enterprise operating standards that will streamline their businesses and drive better overall results...." http://www.benzinga.com/press-releases/10/12/b661910/the-hackett-group-acceleration-of-offshoring-trend-driving-loss-of-mill#ixzz16ysTkqCU
AAIP
note: this trend is impacting Fields beyond, merely, IT and Finance..
any dumb monkey that knows split strike conversion knows you could never go that long without a down year using that type of trading strategy, I believe it would be statistically impossible.
you can count five up as the top of 1 of C from the early July lows, pretty clear from there where wave 2 and 3 are and to see four ending and now in 5, Neely's doesn't have it like that though, his x1 starts at the end of August instead.....
the more I look that first view looks "cleaner", thats where andy started his count.... we are only a couple points from 11/5 now, looks like it's getting broken but who knows....
stay in cash for some clarity, I'll let someone else try to pick the top.
"So much for a quiet session; the market is grinding along higher hour by hour. The S&P 500 has surpassed 1220 (it was near 1173 two days ago) and has its eyes on the yearly high . When you see this sort of buying ahead of a supposedly important economic report, you know market participants are feeling bulletproof. In a normal market I'd say having this sort of run ahead of much anticipated news, would lead for a potential for a sell the news reaction tomorrow no matter how good the report is (after the initial spike). But this has not been a normal market in a long time."
(AP:WEST CHESTER, Ohio) AK Steel Holding Corp. is raising a surcharge on steel used to make motors and electrical transformers by 2 percent, the company said Thursday.
AK Steel, based in West Chester, Ohio, will charge an extra $290 per ton for electrical steel shipped in January. That's an increase of $5 over this month's surcharge of $285.
The company also released January surcharges for dozens of stainless steel products it sells. That list is available on AK Steel's website.
The surcharges are adjusted each month to reflect the changing prices of raw materials and energy used in manufacturing, the company said. It said January's surcharge is based on the costs of producing steel in November.
AK Steel shares rose by 31 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $13.86 in Thursday afternoon trading. http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897482867101
Iceland's Bankruptcy-to-Recovery a Model Ireland Won't Follow
"Iceland is betting its decision two years ago to force bondholders to pay for the banking system’s collapse may help it rebound faster than Ireland.
Iceland’s taxpayers face a smaller debt burden than their Irish counterparts, where the government’s guarantee of the financial system in 2008 backfired this year when the banks came close to insolvency. Iceland’s budget deficit will be 6.3 percent of gross domestic product this year and will vanish by 2012, compared with the 32 percent shortfall in Ireland, the European Commission estimates.
While analysts expect Iceland’s recession to extend into next year, the nation’s exporters are benefiting from a 28 percent drop in the krona against the dollar since September 2008. The decline may help the nation of 320,000 people rebalance its economy faster than Ireland, whose euro membership rules out a currency devaluation. With Iceland’s OMX share index up 17 percent this year, the third-biggest gain in Europe after Denmark and Sweden, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says Iceland may be an example of “bankrupting yourself to recovery.”
...The reason? Everyone knows giant squids don't live in Iceland...sheesh.
"... aren't great bull markets defined by charts that offer no one a chance to get in? ..."
McB,
ayup, that'd be the 'Classic' definition.. ~~ also, that 'definition of a 'Dollar'-"deal" is, to me, an important one--one Reason, I think, that the 'Normal' Deflationary outcome of a 'Crack-up Boom' ain't going to be happening--Writ Large..
differently, 'Prices' will become, even, more 'Political' than before..
how the 'ball' rolls in our Poli-Sci-Fi Pachinko Parlor that does its best imitation of an 'Economy'..
Iceland, which started EU accession talks this year, is experiencing a “durable recovery” that is “forecast to pick up steam” next year, the IMF said in an October report. Iceland’s government says it had no choice but to let the lenders fail. Before their collapse, the banks had debts equal to 10 times Iceland’s $12 billion GDP.
“Trying to rescue a banking system that is too big is a tremendous burden,” Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson said in an interview in Oslo. “There was not a question that we would rescue the banks; they were far too big.”
..Don't hate the messenger...my Uncle Ben said banks were the closest thing to heaven he'd ever see...
The only thing that is steaming in Iceland are the gesyers, the fish rendering businesses... and the places where banker Siggur Siggurson and his friends used to have their houses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-01/wheat-surges-as-rain-delays-australia-harvest-rice-futures-gain.html
ReplyDeleteWheat prices jumped the most in seven weeks as excessive rainfall threatened to reduce grain quality and delay the harvest in Australia, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. Rice futures rose the most since August.
Areas of New South Wales, the biggest wheat-producing state, got more than 5 centimeters (2 inches) of rain in the past 24 hours, according to data from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. The three months ended Nov. 30 were the country’s wettest on record, the agency said. The harvest may be four weeks behind normal, said GrainCorp Ltd., the top bulk-wheat handler in the eastern region.
“There is continued wet weather in eastern Australia during the harvest, and forecasts are adding additional precipitation out for the next two weeks,” said Jim Hemminger, a risk-management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing in Chicago. “Because of the adverse weather, the quality is going to be poor, so it may become feed” for livestock, he said.
...this is going to be an interesting winter
very, very disturbing stuff right here:
ReplyDeletehttp://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2010/12/is-govt-trying-to-find-out-who-has-what.html
Wunsacon,
ReplyDeletebottom thread, yeah, I think the Jackass movies are hilarious and also disgusting too
There are a few skits that made me really sick, the toy car I think on the second one was nasty, most of them are hilarious though, imo.
My wife went to high school with several of those guys, some of her friends are pretty close to Bam and Rab Himself. I've seen him at a bunch of parties we've gone to here, seems like a good dude, very quiet never sticks around very long, and he's really small.
good morning! saw claims.. saw that wildly disturbing post, Ben..
ReplyDeletelistening to the buy the dip video.. love it.
super-broccoli-man seems to have it all down cold-
ReplyDeletebuy the fucking dip you idiot- LMAO
Bernank' has your back
re: broccoli video
ReplyDeleteit would appear that DT's video was not only loved by Bruce
lots of people have adopted that mentality, it was linked twice here yesterday, John E. is flying back into the market now.....you'd have to be an idiot not to ....right?
@McF (8:24)
ReplyDeleteHmmmm... Andy T... all those camping trips... It's all becoming clear now!
Expect black helicopters in Houston to arrive at any minute
don't believe the Toll headlines: HORSHAM, Pa. (AP) -- Toll Brothers Inc. posted a surprise fiscal fourth-quarter profit on Thursday, helped by a large tax benefit. But revenue slipped and signed contracts declined 27 percent amid a weak housing market.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toll-Brothers-posts-profit-apf-3515775581.html?x=0
@karen
ReplyDeletemaybe Toll uses the same accountant as coinstar
will you pls look at the xrt candle from yesterday!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20101201000909
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON ― NASA will hold a news conference Thursday to discuss an astrobiology finding that will impact the search for evidence of extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life in the universe.
...they have found Obama's birth certificate..
@karen
ReplyDeleteBut as TWSWB sees it...
Virtuous Cycle: Will NFP Lead to More Capex, Hiring?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/virtuous-cycle-jobs-data/
If the thread title didn't lose you right there, maybe this will...
"Like Housing, Unemployment has been a headwind facing the economy. The script following a major credit crisis typically involves...
There it is again... The WORD that shall not be named...
I'm pretty sure if you look up the word "TYPICAL" in the dictionary these days, you'll find a foto of TWSWB...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteWell... people always say that "aliens" are "smarter" than the rest of us...
If Owebama is an ET, I guess that explains why liberals like to say "But he's so SMART!"...
i am being bombarded with discount shopping emails.. 30% off and free shipping @ jcrew.. free shipping on furniture at horchow.com..
ReplyDeleteOh... By the way... FULL DOCKET TODAY...
ReplyDelete- World Cup 2018/2022 hosts announced today at 10:30... (hear that mcf? - that's like, the next best thing to "the Olympics"... Get ready to BUY THE FUCKING DIP on EM ETF's...
- Texans - Eagles (tonight)
- Le Bron faces the music in Cleveland tonight
See? There's NO POSSIBLE WAY the world ends until all these things have been achieved...
BUY THE FUCKING DIP!
@karen
ReplyDeletecan't use the word "bombarded" anymore on this blog... SOMEONE MAY BE WATCHING...
Better think of a code, like "boXXardXd"... :-)
I heard a rumor that BB has been working out at Golds in DC, he keeps telling them to put this song on while he's there:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArkBbkaWESQ
*not safe for work
apparently toward the end he "goes off" on the heavy bag, muttering something about how he could take us all down....
and ALL tags, from here on, must include the phrase...
ReplyDelete"Buy the fucking dip"...
CV is doing his part to save America! I'm changing the name of this blog to
JamesAltucherCramerica.blogspot.com
El Presidente! 24/7
gold is getting jumpy..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletemy observation
3 weeks ago J Crew had better deals and free shipping, at least on the mens side.
@McF (9:05)
ReplyDeleteHmmm... Think about the socioeconomic ramifications of what you just said...
The BERNANK, punching & wailing on a heavy bag at GOLD's...
Go ahead, I'll give you a second...
did you guys note the $tnx candle yesterday?
ReplyDeletehahaha.. eFinancialNews
ReplyDeleteGoldman Sachs spins off a private equity division: The new firm, which will be known as New MainStream Capital, ... http://bit.ly/fwUOA2
they shoulda named it MAINSTREET Capital.
Missed in all this glamour and excitement was the fact that (reported yesterday) we've now reached 30 straight weeks of MF outflows...
ReplyDeleteI can get 30% off any order (including sale items) and free shipping with my jcrew card, ben.. it doesn't get better than that!!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you caught it if you watched the video yesterday...
But somewhere in there... Nenner had it that TNX would hit 4.00% again (probably within the next few months) before dropping back again to it's most recent lows...
Beware inverse head and shoulders on the EURUSD.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteI pictured the whole thing in my mind in the shower this morning.
also, the mf flows might be one thing, small lots of upside call buying and ETF's are something different.
@karen
ReplyDeleteYeah but you better not buy anything...
Some government watchdog agency will interpret that as you "stocking up" on supplies!
@Mcf
ReplyDeleteI sent you an e-mail...
kevindepew
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 yesterday recorded TD Sequential 13 sell signal with overlapping 9 sell setup. This should lead the market on the way down.
retail sales drop in OZ:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/australian-retail-sales-drop-in-october-2010-12-01?siteid=rss&rss=1
CV.. i imagine 4% is the underestimate if this gets going..
ReplyDeletefutures all over.. this day is gonna be a b*tch ..
ReplyDeleteanon, that inverse eur/usd got broken to the downside..
ReplyDeleteI think Andy was tossing out some numbers last night...
ReplyDeleteFWIW... CV likes the 1215
i went to bed early.. did i miss much?? lol
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteYeah very disturbing.
------------
CV
CPS would be visiting you if you had children. They are probably looking for another way in.
Preliminary Bullish Objective on $TNX P&F is.... 43..
ReplyDelete$TYX is 63..
@Amen
ReplyDeleteI wonder if they'd be interested in my shot glass collection?
@Amen
ReplyDelete"Look!" Hoarding solar paneled shot glasses!
Lock him up boys! Slap the cuffs on!
@Amen
ReplyDeleteI don't know why... But writing that reminded me of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFFTCIbhF70
CV
ReplyDeleteThey are probably in one of your fitness classes. You might have to turn your classes into boot camp training to shake out the weak ones :-)
CV, i like 1210 for some reason..
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteI watched the Nenner video...he makes some predictions based on sunspots...
....Er, someone gave him a fruitcake for Xmas in the past, me thinks...
bruce, pls don't send me a fruitcake, but i am very much a believer in sunspots!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/40433131
ReplyDeleteHow Can We Prevent a ‘Lost Generation’?
"At the time we where discussing bond yields as the Greek crisis went into overdrive but Studzinski said our discussion missed the point.
"People are not talking about young people failing to find work and the impact unemployment will have on the individual's dignity, prospects for the future and society," said Studzinski who has spent the last few years trying to get to grips with the AIG disaster and advising on major M&A deals across the world.
The conversation moved on over the coming months and resulted in CNBC and Blackstone creating the Global Youth Employment Agenda."
...I think this is a great idea! No one over the age of 14 will be allowed to make catfood for us elderly who, do to ZIRP, have no money to spend at Taco Bell.....Youth of the world, unite!
do can also be spelled "due"
ReplyDelete@Bruce
ReplyDeleteYou know what's funny?
Sunspot activity (throughout time), has been a fairly reliable "cycle phenomenon" guage with regards to weather patterns and other things...
But as soon as someone says "sunspots" and "stock market" in the same sentence, he's labeled a nut...
As for me? Sure... basing market movements on sunspots sounds kind of nutty (even to me)...
But I doubt that's his only mechanism... it's just what Sue Herrera (and THOSE nuts) on CNBC kept drawing the conversation back to...
They like to get these guys like Nenner & Prechter on TV and try and marginalize them into the "lunatic fringe"...
Meanwhile... BUY THE FUCKING DIP (right Sue?, right Maria?, right MCC?, right Quickster?, right B-cups?)... Nothing lunatic about that! :-)
Karen,
ReplyDeleteLefty says you should be concerned about sunspots while sunbathing in your "altogethers"...
..southern term for not much on...
@Bruce
ReplyDelete"catfood tacos"... Most Excellent idea!
which reminds me...
ReplyDeleteWhy is there no MOUSE FLAVORED catfood?
I mean... think about it... With all the "rats" hanging around New York restaurants, and food processing joints...
ReplyDeleteYou'd think they could just crush 'em all up and make catfood out of 'em...
Very low input costs... High margin... Granny will LOVE sharing it on her dinner table with Whiskers the cat!
TNX over 3% may have traders running away from equities until the dust settles.
ReplyDelete1214.99 - lol
ReplyDeleteYay me! :-)
@karen
ReplyDeleteI guess 1214.99 doesn't count!
A girl like you wants PRECISION! :-)
today we will see if xlf and hyg can turn their trend charts back up..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeletexlf
The squid just put bkx on it's top 5 trades for 2011...
1. Short $/CNY via 2yr NDFs, currently at about 6.4060, target of 5.9, expected potential return 6%
2. Long US large-cap Commercial Banks (BKX), at 44.76, target of 57, expected potential return +25%
3. Long US High Yield (Selling protection on the CDX HY index), at a current spread of 528, target of 450, expected potential return of 8%-9%
4. Long Nikkei 225 (NKY), at 9,988, target 12,000, expected potential return +20%
5. Long a Basket of Crude, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum (‘CCCP’), indexed at 100, expected potential return 28%
CV.. yeah, i got that.. hope some of their bets go as well as 2010's currency trades..
ReplyDeletesorry to maintain my bearish stance in the face of overwhelming "evidence" to buy every dip.. but did you take a look at the monthly SPY candle for November.. hasn't been one like that in that place in over ten years.
ReplyDelete"Er, someone gave him a fruitcake for Xmas in the past, me thinks..."
ReplyDeleteBruce,
I've seen several charts with ss activity overlapped on to stocks
they are funny, you are right, if you traded them you'd likely be laughing all the way to the bank! it's been a very accurate predictor at certain degrees of trend.
I'd be very careful about dismissing such things. at the very least I'd suggest looking into it for yourself, if you still the draw the conclusion it's silly then that's that, but to dismiss it out of hand would be a major mistake, imo, of course.
I'll see if I can find the 100 year chart EWI published of this with the dow for free somewhere, it might spark some interest.
If I was a bond trader and the world wasn't ending, I would probably want to layer into some yield, not just buy Ts at 3.00% but put on some HY credit as well. TNX may stabilize around 3.00% as traders take off short term bets in equities, but you can't shake the feeling that it is headed higher from here....
ReplyDeleteguys, two days ago Andy said he was worried about a 20-30 point ramp in the S&P, then there was yesterday.
ReplyDeletenow, I'm almost positive he also said he saw some stiff resistance up aroung 1215 LAST NIGHT
that's today
watch his count.....it's "on"....
going out even further.. 135 on the spy puts in a multi decade right shoulder..
ReplyDelete@karen (10:31)
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with the bearishness...
I've been staying OUT of this market lately, but 1215 lured me in to taking a punt on the short side here...
@LB
ReplyDeleteHope you had a nice trip back...
LB likes the HY and the NKY, but the commodity trade doesn't make much sense, even if we have a robust US recovery. A more measured growth rate doesn't translate to a screaming commodity inflation, but a steadily improving dollar will lead to some disinflation in raw materials.
ReplyDelete30y auction next Thursday, 10y auction Wednesday. Long bonds may be weak all the way out to the middle of next week.
EWI thoughts:
ReplyDeleteIt's common knowledge that if you look directly at the sun, you go blind; or at the very least, become visually impaired. In matters of finance, however, "looking" directly at the solar surface actually heightens one's predictive vision.
In over 100 years of data, the most "illuminating" indicators of major stock market turns include more than the usual contenders: Cycles, sentiment, and wave structure. They're also Sun "Burps."
Our personal records of this phenomenon go back to a 1956 study by Wave Principle pioneer Charles Collins. Then, in the September 2000 Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter updated the original thesis in his own piece titled "Sunspots and the Wave Principle." Here's the main premise:
An increase in the frequency and intensity of solar flares coincide with a rising stock market, into an overlapping peak in both sunspot activity and soaring averages. As sun flares fall off, so do stock prices, ending in a synchronized period of solar and economic cooling.
At the time of the September 2000 Theorist, our analysts applied the loss of upside momentum in sunspot production to their overall bearish call for stocks and wrote: "On the basis of a pending peak in the sunspot cycle... investors could avoid the most serious stock market declines" to come.
The deepest bear market since the Great Depression followed, before rebounding in 2002.
("Quiet" Sun Sends Explosive Message: The May 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast makes a compelling case as to why the current solar flameout is a dark sign for stocks. Get the full story today)
Flash ahead to today: From their respective 2000 highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains 40% down and the NASDAQ, 70% in the red. AND -- as 2008 saw equities endure their worst annual close since the Depression, the year also saw sunspot activity sink into its own dark state. To wit: 2008 was the quietest year for solar activity since 1913 to postpone a long-anticipated uptick even further.
"'Quiet' Sun Baffling Astronomers," reads a recent BBC News. "Sunspots, Where Have They Gone?" asks another popular news site. (Examiner.com)
Well, while the lull in solar flares has "worried" heliologists glued to their telescopes -- our analysts see the solar flameout as fitting perfectly with the previous dimming of stocks. On this, the May 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presents a powerful close-up of sunspot activity and the stock market since 1900.
Sorry that's a little long:
I normally wouldn't link wiki, but there are charts here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot#Sunspot_variation
sunspots aren't THE tool, they are just A tool.
The consensus jobs number tomorrow is now +165K. So there is a chance that the actual number might disappoint (think local government and state layoffs). That would provide an excuse for some profit taking. OTOH, if that number EXCEEDS 200k, there will be a bond slaughter, an equity squeeze and then a sell-off after that.
ReplyDeleteOf course you should BUY THE EFFING DIPS.... until the liquidity pump is reversed, there is only one way for this market to go.
LB doesn't think we can get bearish until we see a 4.00% TNX, although we will already be much more cautious a little before we get there. After QE2, TNX 3.50% may be the new 4%....
You don't have to LOVE this market to be long it. Of course, LB isn't always long, except when Karen is sunbathing (which is pretty often, apparently).
ReplyDeleteCV, my trip was uneventful. No black helicopters over LB's place yet.
LB,
ReplyDeletethere seems to have been a problem with NFP confirming ADP all year I believe.
is that correct?
what's the disconnect?
4.00... Themz were the days!
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteCV is probably toast... They're probably already readying my bunk at Leavenworth...
Maybe I'll get Michael Vicks old digs...
C,
ReplyDeletejust responded back to you.
Here... I'm going to put the last nail in my coffin and publish my own "secret" WIKILEAKS document...
ReplyDeleteTHE BANKS ARE ALL INSOLVENT!
There! That ought to get me life in Leavenworth or accidentally "killed" by an unidentified passing motorist (in a GM car) the next time I enter a crosswalk! :-)
CV,
ReplyDeletebut where's the line after you reveal that which advises to buy them as investments anyway?
GM giving up yesterday's gains.. VRA (rolling my eyes) probably peaked yesterday and will get a confirming candle today.. nflx finally rewarding the shorts..
ReplyDeleteI'm going to publicly say I'm an idiot for not opening a short in NFLX, was a huge probability it would be down 2% or more today
ReplyDeletedumb ass.....I had the chart up almost all day as mentioned yesterday
ben, it's still good for another 20 points on the downside : )
ReplyDeleteLB just sold a few blocks of stock that we nibbled on during the previous week, where LB was trading around a core position in dividend stocks.
ReplyDeletemore than that karen but now the entry isn't as good today...
ReplyDeleteotoh, I think upside calls might be the ticket on AAPL into Jan.
"there seems to have been a problem with NFP confirming ADP all year I believe."
ReplyDeleteNoisy series. No conspiracy necessary, just statistical sampling and a bit of incompetence thrown in.
Hi Karen... LB <3s those ankles.... :-)
LB,
ReplyDeletelol, the numbers have been bad on NFP, why would anyone think that's a conspiracy, it's more like reality.
none of these data series actually can quantify everything properly, not claims, not GDP, nothing, even after the revisions, but I don't recall seeing a divergence like that between those two before say the last 18 months, do you?
are we ready for today's POMO?
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDelete"but where's the line after you reveal that which advises to buy them as investments anyway?
"
That doesn't happen until all my iron condors, CDS's, and strangles have been booked...
McF
ReplyDeleteDon't have much faith in ADP. But it's a "Market Mover", LOL.
Karen,
What is the target of Ye POMO?
ben, tradeticket tweets,
ReplyDeleteBuyers see $NFLX attractive at $191. If it breaks $191, next stop is $187
@ben/karen
ReplyDeleteScrew NFLX... probably get a "re-do" with C here pretty soon...
fed expected to buy $7-9B in june 2016- nov 2017 maturities
ReplyDeleteThat's odd. I've always felt ADP was a good barometer for small businesses. Since they process the paychecks it would seem to be more accurate. NFP (like most government indicators) gets massaged. IMHO
ReplyDeleteThanks, Karen.
ReplyDeleteLB lost his handy-dandy POMO cheat sheet....
AR.. "ADP pays 1-in-6 private sector employees in the United States every pay period across a broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies, it has a unique and significant perspective on the U.S. labor market. "
ReplyDelete"..the ADP National Employment Report is based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that utilizes approximately 340,000 of ADP's more than 500,000 U.S. business clients, representing roughly 21 million employees working in all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) private industrial sectors. "
"The methodology used to develop the ADP National Employment Report not only uses a subset of ADP's total payroll database, IT ALSO RELIES ON A NUMBER OF ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES that FILTER out anomalous data and volatility, ADJUST for seasonality, and ALIGN disparate payroll period dates. In doing so, ADP's aggregate and anonymous payroll data is developed into a unique sample of monthly employment level, and change in employment, that is not reflective of ADP's entire client base. "
CV, just to confirm, the line is -5000 he does that chalk, so not 50:1, but 51:50. They are saying its a lock. That sounds like a short to me, maybe the guy will show some class for once in his life?
ReplyDeleteAgree ADP should be useful, but it has had a history of some wild MISUNDERESTIMATES.
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDelete"LB lost his handy-dandy POMO cheat sheet..."
Here... I have a copy of that cheat sheet handy...
(1:38 - 1:50) of video above...
CV.. My number has been revised to 1220.. or spy 122-123.. this is obscene and absurd.. off for a bit.. : )
ReplyDeletelook at gold!
ReplyDeletemy little miner, NXG, has formed a sweet little cup and handle..
ReplyDeletesilver up even more, of course..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/83-billion-pomo-closes-brian-sack-forbids-instantaneous-monetization-just-auctioned-10-year
ReplyDelete"are we ready for today's POMO?"
ReplyDeleteoh yes, have my grey poupon right here while I watch it
popcorn is for serfs.
silver bitchez!
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeleteI agree it always moves the market, for a short time (ADP)
as for POMO, it's just every day now, lol. of course, you'd be one of the few that have interest in what they target on any given day.
This is funny, I think they are trying to talk JOHN E out of doing any bond investing "because it's all UPSIDE DOWN.."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.vanguardblog.com/2009.10.16/bond-gene.html
Seriously, most peep don't understand that bonds go up and down in value inversely with rates, they barely understand the principal and interest thing....
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteGold Surges On False Rumor Of ECB Fat Finger: Instead Of Buying PGB, A Confused Trichet Hits GCG http://is.gd/i6g1P
LB should stick to bonds and avoid silver, which LB has renamed "The Widowmaker", after a series of ill-fated sorties...
ReplyDeleteTHE COMPRESSOR is doing OK, at least the Treasury end of it has paid me the last few days, now I need the HY end of it to get moving....
Ra,
ReplyDeleteI used to think the same about ADP, then I realized how much they massage the hell out of it
but there is no happy ending when you do it that way.
oh yes, I punted on my attempts at silver a while back
ReplyDeleteit def. widowmakered me.
EURUSD 50% retrace of the last wave would be 1.33 or so. Seems like this pair would continue to be a good short on:
ReplyDeletea) Renewed sovereign debt concerns, or
b) Renewed chatter of ECB bond purchases.
This is the trade LB should have stuck to for most of November, missed opportunity #6756..... LOL.
surprised no one has linked (or did i miss it?)williambanzai7's
ReplyDeleteBeNRoN: ReTuRN oF THE KRaKeN
great stuff
@72
ReplyDeleteI saw that... Was too busy to link...
@McF
ReplyDeleteActually... kidding aside... I'm with you on SILVER...
I'm still a big bull... Just NOT here... I get the feeling that we see a sort of double top off the recent high (maybe a little beyond)...
You know what?
I'm actually sort of playing SLV as a beta to the SPX...
So with SPX up here around 1220, I'm not bullish silver... If SPX pulls back to its next major wave point... I'll...
BUY THE FUCKING DIP (in silver)
If GN's ideas are correct, then you'll kind of get the idea of where I'm going with this...
@McF
ReplyDeleteWhen I say "If GN's ideas are correct"... I mean his ideas on SPY (not silver)...
But I think the two are going to track together over the next period (both ways)...
Silver being the higher beta...
Basically what I'm saying is...
I think one has to start "pricing" indices (DOW - S&P) as if gold and silver were buying it (not dollars)...
That's the new model - IMO
Ben,
ReplyDeleteYou are scaring me with the sunspot thingy.....Ben, Ben, we hardly knew ye!
You didn't direct Wall Street did you?
Seriously. The force in me is strong. That is the dark side..I cannot cross over..
CV,
ReplyDeleteI still believe it's all the same markets, just not a 1/1 correlation.
I have not yet abandon this theme.
So, yeah, what you say makes perfect sense.
That said, GN is getting very bearish the pm's, but he does not provide charts on silver, to my knowledge.
AT reminded me earlier this year when i made some bonehead trades in silver that it's a small market, and easily cornered, probably best to own the physical if you want or just stay away from the short side with this kind of momentum.
Bruce,
ReplyDeletethis is the same Ben I've always been. :-)
I rather think that QE and those performing it and trying to tell you it's based on "analysis" THAT it is the dark side, a grand expirement, nt just someone trying to interpret data from charts, but to each his own.....
I tend to get my interest peaked in things that the herd rejects without any thought at all, I usually want to then run in that direction
but that's just me
LB likes this stock, and is trading around a core position:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/239448-dean-foods-holy-cow-this-stock-is-undervalued?source=yahoo
Surely people will buy milk, until TSHTF and then we have to go to CV's farm and BARTER. "I ain't gonna work on CV's farm no more.."
@McF
ReplyDeleteIf GN is getting beraish on "pm"'s... then that, most likely, ties straight into his counts on SPY...
I personally think that the huge move in silver since the summer was a little "catch-up"...
IOW... The pricing (denominated in silver) towards broader equity prices... It was out of whack... Now it's closer to being IN WHACK...
I think they'll move closer in tandem from here on forward (with silver being the higher beta)...
But here's the catch...
The next MAJOR bottom in, say, the DOW... (just for shits & grins - let's say it's a "Nenner-ish" retest of something resembling the 2009 lows)... or maybe higher... who knows... I've tossed out 840 SPX many times before...
But think that silver hit an "8" handle on the 2008 shakeout... My guess is that you're not going to see "8"... Instead, you'll see something like $16-$18...
THAT's your silver DEFLATION... Then, on the next round of monetization... I mean well HELL... If it simply "mirrors" the '08 - '10 move (about 350%)...
You might be talking $60-$65 silver in a few years...
YOU JUST NEED TO BUY THE FUCKING DIP - lol
Oh, and yeah... The S&P correlation, means while silver is going from 840 to 1,100... Silver is going from $18 to $63...
Something like that...
@LB
ReplyDeleteDean Foods Schmeen Foods...
I get my milk from Elsie grazing on my neighbors meadow...
ben -
ReplyDeletehave you had any clients like those referenced in this comment at zerohedge on Max Keiser's Plan To Destroy JP Morgan Goes Mainstream, After The Guardian Posts His "Silver Squeeze" Thoughts
?
by Cognitive Dissonance
on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 10:27
I've been pounding away at all my clients to please, please, pretty please purchase some physical Gold and Silver for at least the last 5 years. Over the past 3 weeks, 5 clients have come in requesting distributions to do precisely that. And we're talking 5 to 10% of assets, not a few thousand dollars.
@72
ReplyDeleteThat right there... sounds like a reason to be SHORT! :-)
sell silver bitchez! :-)
ReplyDeleteyes indeed I have 72, and they have all been my wealthiest clients that have done so
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteor it could be that attitudes are changing about what is "money"
I've asked this question before
anyone here that can define the dollar for me?
ben -
ReplyDeletea dollar?
what i get paid every day?
@McF
ReplyDeleteWell that's what I'm trying to say... (what is money)...
I've been joking with ahab recently that they ought to come out with an iPhone app that has an algo that displays the DOW & S&P (in "gold", or in "silver")...
Now that JCT & the Bernank have decided to race to the bottom on FIAT... Maybe the next coupkle of years, behind the scenes (and in plain sight), will be the market trying to figure out the price of everything in metals...
Novel idea...
Where is the lovely KAREN...?
ReplyDeleteLB had a good chuckle at Macro Man's epic snow tale today....
I am back, a bit wet, but smelling good! sun shower.. and the market is right where I left it..
ReplyDeleteThis is hilarious. As if most JOHN E's are going to have a million when they retire... LB LOVED the bit about 7% annual returns, b/c that is exactly what BRIAN has delivered for JOHN E over the last dec.... oh, I guess not... :-(
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/111446/million-dollar-retirement-plan;_ylt=AgR_EjemJGUYl9OMVTM3fHO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NzFoNDE4BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNmaWRlbGl0eUZQBHNsawN0aGVtaWxsaW9uLWQ-?mod=fidelity-buildingwealth&cat=fidelity_2010_building_wealth
OTOH, an annual income of $40K will buy a lot of cat food.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/netflix-cfo-dumps-100000-shares-over-200-has-just-51563-shares-left
ReplyDeleteI am back, a bit wet, but smelling good!
ReplyDelete.. and the market is right where I left it..
LB is UP quite a bit now though, Karen....
@LB
ReplyDelete"OTOH, an annual income of $40K will buy a lot of cat food"
Caveat: If you LOCK IN your stash today! :-)
but don't let CPS know about it...
ReplyDeleteLook! CV's "catfood" meme is going viral on other blogs!...
ReplyDelete---
by patience...
on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:17
#772138
I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food because her unemployment had run out. The reds won't extend benefits and the blues won'tgive the deserving rich a tax break.
Doubtful, time for a compromise.
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by Ragnarok
on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:27
#772150
I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food because her unemployment had run out.
What's a grandma doing on unemployment? What about her lifelong savings? What about her SS? What about her family? Sounds like Grandma liked to party and made a lot of enemies.
You consider an S corporation holder who makes $250,000 for a family of 4 rich? I say make $2MM and less permanent and everything else expire.
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by SilverRhino
on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:24
#772163
>> I saw grandma on the news last night saying she had to eat cat food
Grandma is an idiot then. Pinto beans, onions and flour are both CHEAPER than cat food.
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by Dr. No
on Thu, 12/02/2010 - 12:32
#772198
But if Grandma is like other crazy pet owners, she doesnt want her cat eating beans. She must choose between grandma food and cat food, so she keeps the cat happy.
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re: Silver and 'Money'
ReplyDeleteif you want to find out, carry a Silver Round, or two, with you...
waay more peep, now, than just a couple of years ago, have some semblance of understanding 'what it is'..
NY Gold 1398.6 +10.3 +0.74
NY Silver 29.010 +0.597 +2.10
http://www.ino.com/
also, the Gold/Silver Ratio has been dropping 'like a knife'...
AAIP
@AAIP
ReplyDelete16-1... since when they recorded these things on stone tablets...
CV,
ReplyDeletetho, currently, it is, still, in the ~40-to-1 ballpark..
was over 60, not too long ago..
AAIP
High in AAPL today will be the high for the next few weeks... top of the right shoulder.
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletesaw that article, funny and sad wraped in one.
re: dollar
the dollar has no simultaneous actuality and definition, it's nothing more than an obligation of the United States to do exactly nothing, dollars are labeled "notes" b/c they are debt contracts, but it is not a note FOR anything.
and this is why nobody can ever define a dollar
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteYou're right...
This kind of goes back to your question from the other day...
"What timeframe"?
My best guess is... within a decade (it gets back to the 16-1)...
At what "prices" the harmonic convergence occurs... I have no idea...
speaking of 16-1
ReplyDeleteAAPL
left shoulder -----> 16 days to head ------> 16 days from head to todays high (which matches left shoulders high)
couldn't be that simple tho! ... could it?
@McF
ReplyDelete"this is why nobody can ever define a dollar"
Coke addicts could give you an EXACT definition of what it's for...
Although I think WALL ST. Coke addicts, use "c" notes... being masters of the universe and all
"AAPL
ReplyDeleteleft shoulder -----> 16 days to head ------> 16 days from head to todays high (which matches left shoulders high)
couldn't be that simple tho! ... could it?"
---
Might want to consult with Harry Wanger on that one... :-)
... only "16" on CV's mind right now are the 16 oz. beers I'll be drinking while the Dog Killers cover the spread against the "bum steers" 2 nite...
ReplyDeleteMcF
ReplyDeleteThe plan is to have equities BOX THE EARS of bonds for a few months, that's British for KICK ASS, dudes. Then when JOHN E has been sitting in bonds [b/c THE MISSUS told him to QUIT LOSING THE MONEY SHE INHERITED FROM HER SAINTLY AND FRUGAL AUNT EDITH], and then JOHN E sees he has made JACK, while HIS BUDDY has made a cool 10% in THE MARKET, he will be calling BRIAN and BEN, saying GET ME INTO THIS MARKET, and then pretty soon after that we hit 4% on TNX and then the SPX peaks... then one day JOHN E wakes up and it's all...
PEAR-SHAPED.
oh... and on that subject...
ReplyDeleteWould some lazy ass bastard in Las Vegas please wake up and put a line of the Tennessee - Jacksonville game this weekend?
Thank you!
@LB (1:07)
ReplyDeleteLittle music to go with that (pear shaped)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEbEMjKitA4
Nothing pear-shaped about KAREN, LB is guessing....
ReplyDeleteLB just ate a Cornish pasty that he accidentally imported.
ReplyDeletePutin promised some piping hot Polonium tea as a treat for anyone who voted against the Russian bid for the 2018 World Cup. Nice chap, that Vladimir...
ReplyDeleteCold here in East Tennessee today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/30/ap/strange/main7103486.shtml?tag=channelMore;latestRight
Drinking to Keep Warm Defense Works in DUI Case
Jury Acquits Missouri Man After He Claims He Got Drunk To Keep Warm After He Crashed His Car on an Icy Road
...Where is Lefty today?
Arsenio Hall explained. DNA incorporating As instead of P.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11886943
This is one of LB's more intellectual posts...
Thursday, December 2, 2010
ReplyDeleteFed Trying to Make It Harder for Homeowners to Fight Mortgage Fraud by Gutting Truth In Lending Laws
As reported by the Washington Post, the Fed turned a blind eye for years and allowed massive fraud in the mortgage market.
After Alan Greenspan changed his mind and admitted that financial players commit fraud unless laws are enforced (see this and this), many hoped that the Fed would start cracking down on fraud a little bit.
Unfortunately, the Bernanke Fed is continuing to try to sweep fraud under the rug. As just one example, the Fed has been consistently trying to downplay the significance of mortgage fraud, claiming it's not widespread and that nothing much really has to be done about it.
Now, the Fed is proposing a change to the Truth in Lending laws which would make it harder for homeowners to fight mortgage fraud. The Fed's proposal can be read here, starting on page 58541....
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/12/fed-trying-making-it-harder-for.html
"In order to prevent the banks from collapsing when they were forced to buy back the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities from Europe, the deliberate decision was made by the US Government to allow the banks to seize private American homes to preserve their capital structure. But the US Government could not just grab homes the way Roosevelt had grabbed gold. Even the TV-numbed American people would have awakened at that and hanged the politicians from the streetlights. So the US Government and the bankers needed to find a way to allow the banks to grab the property, but make it look like it was the homeowners' own fault.
But homeowners are daring to fight back, and that just cannot be allowed, in the view of Wall Street!
Yes Virginia, there really are monsters, and they wear Armani jackets and Rolex watches and they gaze into their mirrors and admire the reflections of incarnate gods, to whom we mere mortals are but tokens in the great game of global greed.
We shall have no more debate about a civil war. It is already upon us! Millions of Americans have been driven from their homes by the invaders; not with guns and bayonets but with pens and papers and corrupted law. The American victims of this war already wander the desolate byways of this land, outcast from their own friends and families, made as destitute and hopeless as any refugee fleeing any tyrant in history. The war for America is already at your front door. What will you do?"
http://whatreallyhappened.com/
AAIP
SOX bettered its spring 2010 high, fyi...
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeleteI'm careful to state that John E. has been hiding out in "bonds"
John E did buy bonds, but mostly muni's and high yields according to the data flow, it's not as if they flocked into govvies in the same way, that wasn't a safety trade for John, in other words, they were looking for yield.
http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/12/madoff-trustee-seeks-1b-fees-56b.html
ReplyDeletei'm sure all of wall street knew madoff was a fraud.. you think GS didn't know?!
http://www.nysun.com/editorials/hi-yo-silver/87158/
ReplyDeleteI'm crying that we didnt' get the World Cup
ReplyDeletewaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
so sad, somebody call Oprah, or Dr. Phil.
"...The Hackett Group's latest research found that close to 1.1 million jobs in corporate finance, IT, and other business functions were lost at large U.S. and European companies in 2008 and 2009 due to a combination of offshoring, productivity improvements, and lack of economic growth. Over 1.3 million additional jobs will disappear by 2014, The Hackett Group found, with offshoring becoming a larger and larger factor each year. These figures represent annual job loss rates of close to twice those seen from 2000 to 2007.
ReplyDeleteCorporate finance in particular is now seeing an acceleration of this offshoring trend. While IT dominated the mix of business function jobs lost to offshoring since 2000, growth in IT offshoring is now leveling off. By contrast, the total number of jobs lost to offshoring in corporate finance is expected to grow by a compound annual rate of about 20 percent between 2010 and 2014. In 2014, the annual number of finance jobs lost to offshore will be higher than the IT figure for the first time.
The Hackett Group's latest Book of Numbers research, “Global Business Services (GBS): Redefining the Enterprise Engine,” finds that companies are looking at their overall Service Delivery Models and recognizing that the challenging economic times have presented them with a compelling environment to make change that will enable their business to compete globally for the long term. According to The Hackett Group's analysis, one of the most important of these changes is the offshoring trend, which is being accelerated by the fact that many companies are now creating their own GBS organizations in India and other low-cost labor markets.
GBS organizations embrace both outsourcing and their own internal offshore operations, which remain owned and operated by the companies, to enable a broad array of functions to be moved to low-cost labor markets and managed in an integrated fashion. Over the past few years, many companies have become more mature in their use of GBS organizations, expanding them beyond a basic shared services approach to manage operations in multiple functional areas such as IT, finance, procurement, and human resources. By offering economies of scale, scope, and skill, this approach enables companies to drive cost reductions and lower headcounts. Companies are also looking to enable global enterprise operating standards that will streamline their businesses and drive better overall results...."
http://www.benzinga.com/press-releases/10/12/b661910/the-hackett-group-acceleration-of-offshoring-trend-driving-loss-of-mill#ixzz16ysTkqCU
AAIP
note: this trend is impacting Fields beyond, merely, IT and Finance..
lots of tweets on this now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trustee-for-liquidation-of-bernard-l-madoff-investment-securities-charges-jpmorgan-chase-madoffs-primary-banker-with-enabling-massive-fraud-111203234.html
Karen,
ReplyDeleteany dumb monkey that knows split strike conversion knows you could never go that long without a down year using that type of trading strategy, I believe it would be statistically impossible.
so yeah, of course GS knew about Bernie....
JPM, an untouchable, is just moving up on the release..
ReplyDeleteI continue to be very suspect of this Ass guy from Wikileaks, this whole thing stinks:
ReplyDeletehttp://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com/2010/12/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-has.html
Here's how to trade off that news...
ReplyDeleteJUST BUY THE FUCKING DIP!
Fed’s Plosser Says QE Will Complicate Withdrawal of Stimulus
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aexUXnEjOfu0
(whatever!)
AT,
ReplyDeleteif you are out there
do you still think this could be a terminal C or do think it's more likely wave 5 of C will make a new high above 11/5?
I suppose one could start to argue that i of 5 of C wil be extended leg?
GN still shows us truncating and very soon, half the time of 1 and 3 of C.
amazing spy volume today, not.
ReplyDeletemy 2:05
ReplyDeletewe may get the answer before the day is over....
Marky,
ReplyDeleteKeep em light and tight, during Ye Tradynge...?
Thanks, old chap.
123 coming up..
ReplyDeleteselling volume is still in there Karen
ReplyDeleteyou know that distribution thing
look at COT!
John E is now trading against the banks
good luck with that
1221...
ReplyDeletea PALINdrome...
you betcha
ReplyDeleteHey, Obama! I am a boy, eh?
ReplyDeletewait! I got that backwards!
guess it all depends on where you start
ReplyDeleteyou can count five up as the top of 1 of C from the early July lows, pretty clear from there where wave 2 and 3 are and to see four ending and now in 5, Neely's doesn't have it like that though, his x1 starts at the end of August instead.....
the more I look that first view looks "cleaner", thats where andy started his count.... we are only a couple points from 11/5 now, looks like it's getting broken but who knows....
stay in cash for some clarity, I'll let someone else try to pick the top.
would love to see that buy climax chart this week from II.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/bailout-recipients/
ReplyDeleteinsane.. why isn't gold over 6k?
"So much for a quiet session; the market is grinding along higher hour by hour. The S&P 500 has surpassed 1220 (it was near 1173 two days ago) and has its eyes on the yearly high . When you see this sort of buying ahead of a supposedly important economic report, you know market participants are feeling bulletproof. In a normal market I'd say having this sort of run ahead of much anticipated news, would lead for a potential for a sell the news reaction tomorrow no matter how good the report is (after the initial spike). But this has not been a normal market in a long time."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/12/might-not-wait-for-friday-to-make-run.html
(AP:WEST CHESTER, Ohio) AK Steel Holding Corp. is raising a surcharge on steel used to make motors and electrical transformers by 2 percent, the company said Thursday.
ReplyDeleteAK Steel, based in West Chester, Ohio, will charge an extra $290 per ton for electrical steel shipped in January. That's an increase of $5 over this month's surcharge of $285.
The company also released January surcharges for dozens of stainless steel products it sells. That list is available on AK Steel's website.
The surcharges are adjusted each month to reflect the changing prices of raw materials and energy used in manufacturing, the company said. It said January's surcharge is based on the costs of producing steel in November.
AK Steel shares rose by 31 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $13.86 in Thursday afternoon trading.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897482867101
AAIP
karen,
ReplyDeletethe last 24 months have been a gold bugs dream come true, so yeah, I ask myself that question a lot
why isn't it so much higher
effing gnomes
that said, there hasn't been a real dip to buy in gold since 2008, aren't great bull markets defined by charts that offer no one a chance to get in?
http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-koo-quantitative-easing-2-2010-12
ReplyDeletealright, forget telling me what a dollar is
ReplyDeletedefine: normal market
I keep hearing this crap....it's not "normal", when was it last normal then?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/12/02/picture-of-the-day-will-this-be-a-december-to-reme.aspx
ReplyDeleteuup has not violated its power uptrend line from the nov low (yet.)
ReplyDeletegld:uup.. check out that h&s.. perfect symmetry..
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_ZB.H11.E
ReplyDelete124.65625 -0.18750 (-0.15%)
down from ~128 on Tuesday..~! younds.
AAIP
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/iceland-bankrupting-self-to-recovery-reveals-policy-ireland-dared-not-take.html
ReplyDeleteIceland's Bankruptcy-to-Recovery a Model Ireland Won't Follow
"Iceland is betting its decision two years ago to force bondholders to pay for the banking system’s collapse may help it rebound faster than Ireland.
Iceland’s taxpayers face a smaller debt burden than their Irish counterparts, where the government’s guarantee of the financial system in 2008 backfired this year when the banks came close to insolvency. Iceland’s budget deficit will be 6.3 percent of gross domestic product this year and will vanish by 2012, compared with the 32 percent shortfall in Ireland, the European Commission estimates.
While analysts expect Iceland’s recession to extend into next year, the nation’s exporters are benefiting from a 28 percent drop in the krona against the dollar since September 2008. The decline may help the nation of 320,000 people rebalance its economy faster than Ireland, whose euro membership rules out a currency devaluation. With Iceland’s OMX share index up 17 percent this year, the third-biggest gain in Europe after Denmark and Sweden, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says Iceland may be an example of “bankrupting yourself to recovery.”
...The reason? Everyone knows giant squids don't live in Iceland...sheesh.
it's not "normal", when was it last normal then?
ReplyDeleteMarch 6, 2009.
P/E ratios were quite good at my Bottom™.
I'm changing the URL of this blog to...
ReplyDeletejbtfd.blogspot.com
"... aren't great bull markets defined by charts that offer no one a chance to get in?
ReplyDelete..."
McB,
ayup, that'd be the 'Classic' definition..
~~
also, that 'definition of a 'Dollar'-"deal" is, to me, an important one--one Reason, I think, that the 'Normal' Deflationary outcome of a 'Crack-up Boom' ain't going to be happening--Writ Large..
differently, 'Prices' will become, even, more 'Political' than before..
how the 'ball' rolls in our Poli-Sci-Fi Pachinko Parlor that does its best imitation of an 'Economy'..
AAIP
With my currency down 28% and my stock market up 17%, prosperity knows no bounds.
ReplyDeleteIceland, which started EU accession talks this year, is experiencing a “durable recovery” that is “forecast to pick up steam” next year, the IMF said in an October report. Iceland’s government says it had no choice but to let the lenders fail. Before their collapse, the banks had debts equal to 10 times Iceland’s $12 billion GDP.
ReplyDelete“Trying to rescue a banking system that is too big is a tremendous burden,” Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson said in an interview in Oslo. “There was not a question that we would rescue the banks; they were far too big.”
..Don't hate the messenger...my Uncle Ben said banks were the closest thing to heaven he'd ever see...
our economy is booming!! look at the $tran.. it says so..
ReplyDeleteLB would buy a lot of TIP at 107.
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeletegood point, re: Iceland..
they knew, whether they 'knew' or not, "Defund to Defend".
'Caines are, still, too (doped/hoped)-up on 401(k) illusions to grow that kind of Spine..
AAIP
The only thing that is steaming in Iceland are the gesyers, the fish rendering businesses... and the places where banker Siggur Siggurson and his friends used to have their houses.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if any of the Irish are headed to Iceland? Banks failed, taxpayers didn't.....
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be funny (you know Lefty..ironic funny) if Iceland were in a position in 3 years to "lend" money to the Irish?
ReplyDeleteon the edge of my seat here people, last hour is huge!, so is early tomorrow
ReplyDeleteMackieFear,
ReplyDeletere: short Ag..
see:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PB
I'd like to see who was Short 'Bellies' in August..(?)
think those 'wounds' have healed yet?
AAIP