Well (back to the economic malaise)... One could always "start" by hiring union workers to dig us out... (you know, those "high paying jobs" who receive 130K a year and retire at full pensions at the age of 50)...
Here's what you get for your money...
NEW YORK's FINEST, BRAVEST, DUMBEST
You know... CV has a French surname... I thus like to turn back to my own rich heritage to see how my ancestors dealt with similar civic problems... Aptly, this was from (1959), about the time Hawaii was being admitted to the union, and the "Teleprompter in Chief" was being conceived at some unbeknownst location... (Note: CV has softened is original posture on Obama's birthplace... You see, now I believe that he was, in fact, born in Hawaii... That is... After I discovered that there is a far away galaxy that goes by that same name)...
The libertarian approach to that problem would NOT have been to go thru umpteen layers of government to fix the hole... A spade, a little gravel, and some asphalt would have done just fine... That is... Assuming the "little guy" didn't have to go into hock to pay for the "fixing" materials (in a world where the
For those of you considering doing a Barbara Streisand and "leaving the country" if their little wussy candidate isn't elected... Here's the types of things credit do to people in the ROW (remember - these are the countries that are the "ENGINES OF GROWTH" as Ritholtz and the others like to remind you until you finally sign on the dotted line and hand them your cash for their worthless stock positions)... Yup - these are the countries that are going to set off the next economic boom (Probably true - as you consider what happens when you put a match to gasoline)...
Suicides in India Revealing How Men Made a Mess of Microcredit
EXCERPT:
"Shobha, head of several groups of women borrowers, was being pressured to pay interest on her 12,000 rupee ($265) loan. Lenders also were demanding that she cover for the other women, even though the state had restricted microfinance activities two weeks earlier, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its February issue...
When Srinivas, 35, tried to snuff out the flames with a blanket, his polyester clothes caught fire. Within three days, both parents were dead, leaving their sons orphans...
Now, on this November morning, the boys’ ailing 70-year-old grandfather and blind grandmother say they are caring for Aravind, 10, and Upender, 13, in the farming village where many men earn a living gathering palm extract to make alcoholic beverages..."
For those of you who aren't sensitive to CV's "dark" sense of humor... That story (nor the attached animation) IS NOT FUNNY AT ALL to me... I believe that we live in a world that we have become drugged and de-sensitized to many things (witness Obama not even thinking twice about praising Michael Vick, AFTER THE FACT, and essentially giving him a "de-facto" Presidential pardon)...
You all are free to do and think what you want... Or, I should say, FOR NOW you are supposedly granted Constitutional freedoms expressing such... There seem to be those in power who would like nothing more than to take those freedoms away from you... To tell you "We can't just leave it up to the parents", to force you to take part in socialized medicine, to control the internet, to rig the banking system, to take care of their own, at the expense of you...
All I can say is... To use a horrible contextual expression... "You better get your dog in the fight"... Because THEY certainly don't seem to have any problem putting theirs in... As the Beastie Boys said...
"You Gotta Fight for Your Right (to Party)"
You could start your own blog, and have soda & pie... & hope no "bad people" show up...
And what's more... You could just lay down and let your government take care of things for you (they're "here to help", is what I've been led to understand)... Obama even has that base covered for you with his "death panels"... He's here to remind you that...
Suicide is Painless
Through early morning fog I see
visions of the things to be
the pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see...
[REFRAIN]:
that suicide is painless
it brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.
I try to find a way to make
all our little joys relate
without that ever-present hate
but now I know that it's too late, and...
[REFRAIN]
The game of life is hard to play
I'm gonna lose it anyway
The losing card I'll someday lay
so this is all I have to say.
[REFRAIN]
The only way to win is cheat
And lay it down before I'm beat
and to another give my seat
for that's the only painless feat.
[REFRAIN]
The sword of time will pierce our skins
It doesn't hurt when it begins
But as it works its way on in
The pain grows stronger...watch it grin, but...
[REFRAIN]
A brave man once requested me
to answer questions that are key
is it to be or not to be
and I replied 'oh why ask me?'
[REFRAIN]
'Cause suicide is painless
it brings on many changes
and I can take or leave it if I please.
...and you can do the same thing if you please.
Morning! Unfortunately, I have visited His Mishness prior to coming home this morning, and there is still madness in the economy. Got an awfully busy day, but may be able to comment some this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know roughly how much of each tax dollar at current rates will go to interest on the national debt in 2011? If there is a site that tracks this I'd be interested in following it this year.
By the way, CV, I enjoy your rants. Keep 'em coming.
ReplyDelete@BinT
ReplyDelete"Anyone know roughly how much of each tax dollar at current rates will go to interest on the national debt in 2011?"
---
I dunno otomh...
But I'm pretty sure the Administration is thinking... "Now, all we need to do is hire a million more government & union workers, and pay them $100K a month and out tax revenues will SOAR!
The Bernank will "monetize" our initiative...
It's that easy!
JIB JAB
ReplyDeleteSo long 2010...
http://comedy.video.yahoo.com/?l=3774749&v=7231546
"bond bubble"........this phrase is not accurate. "credit" is a bubble, the bond market, it's real big, and the phrase does not at all apply to the whole.
ReplyDeleteA simple question:
How many people do you know that are using credit to purchase bonds?
A dumb question:
How many people do you know that have quit their jobs to day trade fixed income?
In the tech bubble we know margin was a staple, when it comes to housing, people were getting loans for up to 105% of the purchase price of a home, or several homes. Even auto loans allow the borrower to get roughly 85% of the purchase price on credit.
When it came to bond purchases by the masses people just used savings to buy them, what little they had. People have used this blanket statement all year that retail investors were "buying bonds"
Well.....which bonds? I've listed all kinds of data here that very clearly shows they were not buying treasuries, they were jumping for yield just like a pension manager would, it has been a monster year for high yield and look at subprime!
I think that AFIATBNL has properly pointed out that leveraged players just made money off the Bernanke again in fixed income so all the moves are being amplified, when it comes to the long bond, maybe some bigger perspective than "since this fall" is needed:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_r47sOI__h_M/TRaWKrDHoVI/AAAAAAAACNs/cyF2keBQCO8/s1600/sc%255B2%255D.png
Chart from David Singer
it would seem with so many claiming the "bond bubble has burst" that Wall Street has done it's job again fooling Main St as they are now fully entrenched in the holiday daze after all the other shoppers they saw out this year coupled with all the happy talk and trend extrapolation/2011 predictions of the past.
ReplyDeleteThere's this question a man asks in The Big Short when it came to Wall Street convincing him about a trade, he asked:
"how are you going to %*C! me?"
for retailers jumping into equities now, I might caution to ask the same question. It is the goal, after all.
Imagine..... the market jumps quickly to 1,300 only to have the floor pulled out afterward.....it's "easy", if you try.
but hey, why listen to me, Ken Fischer is going to come on CNBC in a few minutes, he manages billions.
ReplyDeleteKen Fischer
ReplyDelete"I think this is a year that will frustrate both bears and bulls"
lol, this is the mantra of everyone right now, I've seen the same call phrased 35 different ways since Monday, it's total nonsense of course, the market always frustrates most people. that's how it "works".....alright, now it's the"money on the sidelines" discussion starting. time to hit the off button.
thanks for the magic.
"How many people do you know that have quit their jobs to day trade fixed income?"
ReplyDelete---
My automated backtesting and "alerts" simply "fire off the trade" for me...
It's 100% foolproof...
@McF (8:07)
ReplyDeleteHa!... Little did anyone know that Ken Fischer & Mannwich were one in the same!
Stock market prognosticators extraordinnaire!
http://anonymoustraders.blogspot.com/2010/12/manny-mondays-2011-market-prediction.html
"My belief is that we're in a bit of a range-bound market for 2011 that will frustrate both bulls and bears alike (probable the latter more so)"...
---
as for me??? I predict that a lot of useless stock market predictions will be made, and in the end, when it all goes haywire, we can blame it on Bush!
So let it be written! So let it be done!
well, to be fair, I'm not going to bag on Manny so much for saying that, Ken Fischer gets paid a lot of money to manage money, I was more referring to guys like him, or the Mauldin interview I saw at Barry's, or several other money managers that basically said the same exact thing. It's called talking out of both sides of your mouth so that no matter what outcome you can claim you were right, which all these pundits will do.
ReplyDeleteSilver is back to giving Blythe nightmares. At this rate it should test 32.20 which is the 2.618 fibo (from low of 8.90). This is the 103rd week since that low and there are 41 weeks left before the next fibo interval.
ReplyDeleteFrankly -
ReplyDeleteI AM going to bag on "anybody" who attempts to make "any" stock market predictions on "anything" beyond simple technical analysis.
- We have daily POMO activity
- We have algos programmed to trade as much as 80+% of any trades on any given day
- We have a government who does not know how to stop spending money
- We have central bankers who have chosen to monetize all soverign debt
- We have fraudulent accounting standards on the government level
- We have fraudulent accounting standards on the private level
So you mean to tell me that some smart person can get in there and crunch all those factors together and come up with a high and low?
Might as well sit around and make bets on which crow will fly off the fence next. Yeah baby! My crow won. Pay up (and call me a genius). I'll start a subscription blog service featuring my 'crow prediction' skills forthwith so you all can get in on the profits.
That is an exercise done by fools, using fools tools.
Frankly 2 - It's not that 'technical' analysis will fare much better with respect to finding an answer. Perhaps it will help 'frame' the unframeable in a way that's easier to understand.
But really. All that "going to 1300" would temm me is that we really have - in fact - gone off the rails. Not that I don't think we're off the rails already.
@Nostradamus 2011
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the day, that's why I don't mind limiting 'predictions' to NFL and college football games...
Hell, at least within an hour, you know whether you were right or wrong, and when you were wrong, a quick game study can tell you either about the things that you 'missed', or that were beyond anyone's control...
The INTERESTING thing about the games is this...
It isn't about which picks were right and which picks were wrong... Instead, what's important is the AGGREGATE results (after also paying the "vig" for losses)...
To be successful at that, you must also be good at ACTUAL $$ MANAGEMENT...
Any clodhopper that's playing with play money could give you their opinion on some bogus indices...
Show me your ledge and your bank balance at the end of the year... That would impress me... OR NOT!
How has Ken Fisher done since 1998 (in aggregate)?... I'm sure ALL the books & ledgers aren't open for viewing...
LOL -
ReplyDelete"show me your ledge" (Freudian slip)
OK... Show me that too... then do this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8
HFTs hunting for Ben's stop at the open.
ReplyDeleteyeah, I think I'm getting taken out today
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDelete1260.99 that's as close as the HFT could get LMAO.
Just a tidbit of information...
ReplyDeleteThe high "YEARLY" close for SPX (before the 2001-2002 recession) was 1469.25 (which was a higher yearly close than that of 2000)...
The high "YEARLY" close for SPX in 2007 (after the October peak) was 1468.36...
Kind of interesting...
lol Ra, I keep looking thinking, did that just happen, surely they are playing with me.
ReplyDeleteGrantham said 1550 or so before it would crash.. remember that video? P&F is 1590.. oh, good morning.. and thanks for lecture, CV..
ReplyDeletemaybe focus on $ndx and see if it takes out the 2007 high today.. 2239+
also watch for IBM breakout..
Also...
ReplyDeleteIf you draw a straight line from:
TOP
1469.25 (on Dec 31, 1999), thru the top of the Lehman month candle [9/08]
BOTTOM
Yearly CLOSE, 1987... After "crash"... thru the closing Lehman month candle [9/08]...
You get a "big assed triangle".... The termination point is 1260-1265 range, and the termination "time" is this month (into next)...
the equity market is splintered, one day transports up dow down, the next day dow up transports down, RUT seems to be lagging, FXP looks like it's in an uptrend as China has broken down out of consolidation
ReplyDeletedavid singer has a nice IYR chart at his blog as well.
@karen
ReplyDeleteLecture?
I'm happy to oblige telling people how I stand on matters...
And they are free to tell me how FOS I am...
Even on the blog I host... :-)
um, ok, 1550
ReplyDeletenot in a straight line, of course
i'm also reminded that Grantham/GMO got killed in 2008 all the same. I think this is the case of potent directors fallacy forecast but JG is way smarter than I am, so I'll just keep quiet now.
@McF
ReplyDelete- If 1260 is such an important number...
- and we have low volume trading...
- and POMO is in effect...
Why the hell aren't we 'busting up'?... I mean, there should be shorts left and right scrambling to cover, running for the hills...
We should be up 300 points on the DOW right?
I'm not bearish in general, but I don't like this market one bit.
ReplyDeleteseriously, how much higher can the dow 30 get? that is the question.. i posted that shorty on stock prices being ambiguous yesterday.
ReplyDeletethis fantastic comment was left, myopia Says:
December 28th, 2010 at 10:42 am
So I used to think we were living in a sea of debt. Silly me, it’s actually a sea of relativism.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/the-ambiguity-of-stock-value/
somebody smart had 1262 as the point to go all in short, LOL.. cannot remember whom.
ReplyDeleteI mean... why wait?
ReplyDeleteBAC should be up at $16 by the summer...
Might as well make your money quick getting into that hot stock...
Ben, i posted yesterday that short interest was as low as it was in dec 2007.. it went a bit lower before the crash on the chart i saw. Only thing is, i have no idea how short ETFs are accounted for in that.. probably not at all.
ReplyDeletei'm just bitter that my last remaining long position isn't anywhere near its 2005-2006-2007-2008-or even its 2009 highs..
ReplyDeletea green shoot! High Crude Prices Spur Spending on Exploration & Production (XOM, CVX, RDS-A, BP, PBR)
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/f2mWWu
Agreed with ben on "bond bubbles". There was some leverage in Treasuries in October (HFs) but that has long since blown out. I really don't think there is much active retail trading in the MBS, HY area at this point.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to see where the "margin" trading is, don't look at JNJ 2015 paper, look at Cu, Au, Ag and the soft commodities, not to mention the NAZZ and all those little commodity stocks and miners.
Remember that nobody who matters is trading this week. Hedge funds are going to sit on the fence for a few days before they get involved. The IBs are going to front run the Jan '11 401k money, so they will get long into the weekend. It's what happens afterwards that will be interesting. Which of 2010's Money Trades will see profit taking first?
Gold? Copper? AAPL? GDX? EEM?
just put my sump on.. got lucky as the rain ran late : )
ReplyDeleteHooray.. finally got an answer to this question I posed months ago frm ZH:
ReplyDeleteNovember Margin Debt jumps another $5 billion higher to $274 billion as prop desks have no net cash left
i want a chart on margin..
ReplyDeletefantastic.. just found these tables:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=278&category=8
2010 to present is on the sidebar
CV,
ReplyDelete10:07
IF 1260 is at all important, and it appears it isn't going to be, then it will overwhelm POMO
people really overhype it, but I'm a broken record on this topic.
I'd have thought after people saw enough POMO days in the red they'd stop with this blah blah but I guess not, emotions are a powerful thing.
margin interest is at very high levels, I just saw a chart the other day, I'll find it
ReplyDeletehere's the margin chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/TRV_HFTf4SI/AAAAAAAAKB0/c3Aiz5HAiZA/s1600/Margin+Debt+vs.+S%2526P500.png
talk about coming up with a reason for a market behaviour:
ReplyDeleteThe dollar fell against all of its major counterparts as signs of U.S. economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding assets, including stocks.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2xTRZbxSmiU
"a green shoot! High Crude Prices Spur Spending on Exploration & Production (XOM, CVX, RDS-A, BP, PBR)"
ReplyDelete----
I thought we were all supposed to be buying those government subsidized "coal fired" Chevy Volts that go a whopping 33 miles on a full charge and seat two passengers plus one extra large battery that uses exotic metals and 70% more copper than the average car...
Somebody call Obama to "kick some ass" and stop the drilling...
thank the bots for today's % ups..
ReplyDeletenas .27
dow .36
spx .27
ok, think how prettay the chart is going to look in terms of symetry if we go to 1,300, just before the real waterfall in 2008.....
ReplyDeletenature, bitchez.
signs of U.S. economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding assets, including stocks.
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA average dividend at the crash of 1929 was 3.2%...
Right now it's 2.7%...
ben, i <3 you for that chart.. grazie mille, un million de gracias and merci!!!
ReplyDeleteon our company website today there is this study that shows American ownership of life insurance is at 30 year lows. Scary and Sad.
ReplyDeleteAs someone that has seen several people pass prematurely doing this job including my Dad when he was in his early 40's I can't stress enough how much of a disaster it can be if you aren't properly insured and you leave behind survivors, especially young children or a spouse that is not employed.
of course, this is pretty easy to understand, because most people have little to no savings and lots of debt, their life insurance needs are pretty high, and even if you do term there's a bill to pay, one that most people just can't afford since part of our "recovery" includes higher food/gas etc prices.
if you need insurance, figure out a way to pay for it thats my tip for today, if that means you give up some vacation or something else you'd otherwise spend the money on, it's probably for the best.
Ben, we had term life insurance until we had enuf money to quit it. other than term, i think it is a racket!
ReplyDelete"if you need insurance, figure out a way to pay for it thats my tip for today, if that means you give up some vacation or something else you'd otherwise spend the money on, it's probably for the best."
ReplyDelete---
No way you're going to cut into my catfood budget...
Why doesn't the government SPONSOR life insurance premiums? [snark off]
I suppose people will have to resort to "clever" tactics... Like SUEING the government (motors) when their little "coal fired" Volt gets crumpled on the interstate by a big diesel truck...
depends Karen, perm insurance has it's place for those with large(r) estates, using them in an ILIT (irrevocable life insurance trust) for example.
ReplyDeletebut yeah, generally I'm a big fan of term insurance, especially the policies that have a conversion provision in case later on you do decide you want to have a perm policy.
grazie mille, un million de gracias and merci!!!
ReplyDeletewe didn't know you were so linguistically talented...
fxa made a new 52 week high today.. there you have it.. that is my reason for spx high today.
ReplyDeleteI did a financial plan for my parents when I first started, they were way uninsured so I fought with them for a year to buy insurance (they didn't think they needed it like most people), they finally caved, less than two years later my dad passed with 0 warning, probably the best thing I've done in this job since I started.
ReplyDeletemeant to say underinsured up there....
ReplyDeleteInsurance.
ReplyDeleteThe rich don't need it, the poor can't afford it.
Term has its uses, if you can get enough to cover mortgage.
Then it is basically insurance against losing the house.
I have none but then I have no little FI tradelets.
...fxa made a new 52 week high today
ReplyDeleteMrs Watanabe is busy.
ben, what about disability insurance? aren't odds greater for needing that?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBTW...
ReplyDeleteRemember CV was saying that the VIX.X "weekly" candle pierced the (2,20) BB's (which has been a pretty relaible "correction" indicator)?
Well - the December MONTHLY candle also pierces the lower (2,20) BB's...
Also... The entire (2,20) BB is below the 200MA (weekly), for the same... To my knowledge, that has never happened before...
Although I will say that perhaps the 2008 crisis sent the VIX into a way that makes this type of analysis irrelevant....
Still interesting though... In summary - It's one more set of TA that seems to be "useless" in a world of central bankers gone berzerk...
"I have none but then I have no little FI tradelets."
ReplyDeleteYou can thank me
@karen
ReplyDelete"fxa made a new 52 week high today.. there you have it.. that is my reason for spx high today."
What about... "THE ECONOMY"?
absolutely, DI is very important, that's always a fun convo, most people hate or refuse to buy it though. I've got a giant DI policy and one to cover overhead for the business as well. My wife owns some DI as well. People get this idea you need to injured badly for this to apply but I'm fairly certain the number 1 DI claim is stress related. I've paid out on several DI policies since I started here, one of my clients fell out of a tree stand a few years ago and got hurt really bad, he's been collecting from his policy I got for him ever since.
ReplyDeleteI think some of you might be shocked out how much life insurance wealthy people often hold....
some don't hold any of course, but more often than not they understand the other ways to use it, life insurance has a lot of uses in the estate planning arena.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteI don't know if you look at 3LB's on the VIX...
But... Mondays VIX candle was a DAILY 3lb reversal for the VIX (which has since been 'confirmed')...
Also - the WEEKLY 3lb on the VIX would be around 17.9 (for a reversal)... The Monday candle opened high enough to take that out, but it has since drifted under...
Week is not over yet tho...
More Aussie M&A
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 29, 2010 at 15:49 GMT
Blackrock is looking to buy Aussie-owned real estate firm Centro…More fuel for the Aussie M&A boom….
Commodities, reserve diversification, M&A inflows…It’s all going the Aussie’s way these days, it seems.
i havent been following this but it seems to be getting more and more attention:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/12/27/wired/index.html
The worsening journalistic disgrace at Wired
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/guest-post-underneath-the-happy-talk-is-this-as-bad-as-the-great-depression.html
ReplyDeleteworth a skim.. Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- For better and for worse, Julian Assange pushes limits. In his work life and his sex life, he stands at the border dividing legal conduct from criminality, though it’s not clear which side of that border he occupies.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0uh0bKVVgtY
it ties in with the wired article, too, on Private Manning.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteThe daily 3LB reversal price is 17.74 and was tested on Monday. Failed aka no reversal.
The weekly 3LB reversed down the week ending 12/17/10. Not confirmed yet.
The monthly 3LB reversal price is 17.59 so currently there is a monthly reversal down (2 more days).
I still do this every week: Amen Ra's 3LB Weekly Updates
New blog post: Algos: They work great until they don't
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/156122/all/algos-they-work-great-until-they-dont
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204467204576048003509269910.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
ReplyDeleteReal-estate stocks are poised to end the year with gains that are twice as large as the broader stock market, the second year in a row that REITs outperformed the major stock indexes.
REITs, as measured by the Dow Jones All REIT index, were up 27% as of Tuesday's close. While that is a smaller gain than last year, when REITs posted gains of 28.5%, the 2010 results handily beat the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, up 11% as of Monday's closing and Standard & Poor's 500 index, up 12.86%.
The REIT rally was triggered by investors hunting for higher dividend yields. REIT dividend yields, while low compared to historical standards, are currently around 4% compared to 3.35% on Treasury bonds.
BinT (7:22) - You asked about how much dollar is going towards interest.
ReplyDeleteThis really really stinks, so you may want to hold your nose while viewing it, but I hope it helps.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Mangy Mutt
@karen (11:29)
ReplyDeleteWell that makes 'perfect' sense...
Time to "get in" while these are still cheap...
Read:
ReplyDeletehttp://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/12/e-minis_29.html#comment-120727780
Sugarman appearance at Dan's
Don't bother if you aren't into phi/fibo/or anything involving astro as you'll be wasting your time, anyone else feel free.
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteWhile entertaining... That debt clock gadget doesn't really say much because it calculates everything to a fixed parameter...
it's not too far from making a calculation such as:
"The median home value in 2000 was $150,000" (I'm making these numbers up)...
"The median home value in 2005 was $200,000"
So that means it should be $250,000 in 2010, right? $300,000 in 2015...
or, if you wanted to extrapolate ratios, you could say $199,500 (2010), and $265,335 in (2015), and so on...
That "debt clock" thing assumes that the trillions being piled on right now... that all that debt will be "rolled over" at the same intrest rate upon maturity...
My take is that if the Fed has to "monetize" that much of a schedule of rollovers, then gas prices ought to be about $10 a gallon by the time the belly of the curve comes due...
So if you extrapolate THAT as a thesis, then you realize that this "monetization" ought not continue unabated...
Which means the DEBT SERVICE figures are irrelevant...
It's like you with your Capital One card that the bank let you run up with a 1.99% teaser rate... They're only charging you $50 bucks a month for it...
Then one day you get hit with 27% interest...
Game over... Welcome to bankruptcy & food stamps... Enjoy your Fancy Feast catfood...
have i pointed out the rev h&s in GS before.. just pull up a daily chart spanning two months..
ReplyDeletecrazy neg divergence on that GS chart as well as declining volume.. no matter! In Jan 2011, all that money on the sidelines and another $100B margin debt will come in and surge the spx well over 1300..
ReplyDeleteLOL! this will be good: Bespoke
ReplyDeleteBuy stocks with the highest short interest? http://bit.ly/ijBXi1
"Buy stocks with the highest short interest?"
ReplyDeleteNot until AFTER you've levered up on 100x margin...
Man: Wife's Death Was Sex Fantasy Accident
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40834524
Aww Jeez! Back to the 'missionary position' everybody... :-(
Looks like Obama and Justin Timberlake are now qualified to be 'pen pals'...
ReplyDeleteJustin Timberlake 'Always Wanted to go to College' (gets Harvard degree)
http://www.popeater.com/2010/12/28/justin-timberlake-always-wanted-to-go-to-college
Just like Barry... 'Always wanted to be teleprompter in chief'...
This Is Comforting…
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 29, 2010 at 17:01 GMT
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will now add a category to it employment survey.
At present, they stop measuring long-term unemployment at 99 weeks or over. Now, there will be a 260 weeks or longer choice.
I’ll save you the math: that’s five years…
For those that missed it: http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/12/17/the-paul-tudor-jones-christmas-spectacular/
ReplyDeleteWho is buying 10yr & 30yr? Yields falling fast. I guess BB & TG don't want to see 3.5% (10yr) and 4.5% (30yr) heading into 2011.
ReplyDeleteGold will probably take out recent highs before the new year. Silver already has (why is Blythe in the corner crying?).
-------------
Karen
Your link seems to indicate that Wired located a patsy to cover up a known problem. What private has that kind of access?
@McF (11:41 link)...
ReplyDeleteHmmm "Jupiter conjuncting Uranus"...
Doesn't sound like something I want to be a part of...
by "return to normal" does merriman mean this will come to an end?
ReplyDeleteBloombergNow
U.S. Stocks Rise, Extending Biggest December Rally Since 1991 http://bit.ly/gkAGqW
This is kind of cool...
ReplyDeletehttp://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/YearInPhotos10/year-in-photos-2010.html
Cvienne (11:43) - Although Fancy Feast might be some yummy cat food, it lacks a certain crunch, so unless it is being spread on toast or crackers, I will stick with Puppy Chow.
ReplyDeleteI understand your point about the debt clock and yes there are a lot of values that are unknown and being given fixed input, which at best gives flawed out put.
I just thought it was interesting to see how things were broken down and showed the actual numbers and how much debt each citizen "owes" then they break it out to how much each tax payer “owes”.
So flawed data or not it basically says we are screwed, but hey at least we have cheap kat (Dawg) food we can stock up on.
Mutt
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteHere... I have a website that anyone can go to (that's much easier on the eyes)...
www.justfaceitwerebasicallyfucked.com
It's under construction...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteBJs are up.
CV, some great fotos and some scary ones.. couldn't figure out how to see them all within each month, however.. i moved over to Category and Region, too.
ReplyDeleteCvienne - I will check that site out when I get home tonight.
ReplyDeleteI would go now, but there is a naughty word in the link, you know one of those words that would probably send up a red flag.
But I will send an email to the website admin suggesting he/she change the site to www.justfaceitwearebasicallyfornicated.com
Much more family friendly :)
Mutt
BJs on speculation of buyout.. saw that earlier.. can't link you all to EVERYTHING.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/12/29/bjs-wholesale-up-on-takeover-talk/?mod=rss_BOLBlog
$NDX still the laggard here.
ReplyDeleteAnonyomous (12:48) - Please refrain from sexting, that is my job.
ReplyDeleteNow who wants to see some naked pictures of a future football hall of famer?
Brett Favre...
ReplyDelete#4-nicator (in your game program)
bondscoop Mike Jackson
ReplyDeleteHUGE 64.2% indirect bid in 7 yr. That left dealers to fight over the 31.2% they bought.
New blog post: Good 7-year auction http://www.forexlive.com/156140/all/good-7-year-auction
Potash has totally busted out of a wedge (which had been pinning it at the 50% fibo re-trace from '08 low back to all time high...
ReplyDelete@karen (1:11)
ReplyDeletesounds like the "Carribbean Nations" and Chinese want to get into the FRONTRUNNING the Fed business...
USD-JPY 81.7450 -0.6380 -0.77%
ReplyDeleteNow who ever thought we would see that below 82 again?
Exit rally, anyone?
That was a strong auction, but they have been selling the crap out of Ts for days to ensure an attractive yield. We will see the same dynamic at the long end as we head into the Jan 12-13 auctions, unless Europe is already running around like a chicken with its head off by then.
HYG having a decent day, JNK recovering strongly from ex-div.
MBB solid today, MUB.... not so much.
ReplyDeleteTIPS spread is a bit tighter. Less FLATION today...
ReplyDeleteSLV...
ReplyDelete.02 from touching a 'double top'...
Blythe? Catherine?
More small fish caught in the net, but Hank Paulson walks free...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-29/u-s-prosecutors-in-new-york-charge-winifred-jiau-with-insider-trading.html
"unless Europe is already running around like a chicken with its head off by then..."
ReplyDeleteIf you bet against Greece you will lose your shirt...
Editors note: "If you bet WITH Greece - you lose both your shirt AND your wife's blouse"
Moral? read the fine print!
"More small fish caught in the net"
ReplyDeleteDamn! & I had my $$ on Col. Mustard in the Library with the Candlestick...
SLV
ReplyDeleteLet's just not mention the GREY METAL today.
There is no mustard on my candlestick.
ReplyDeletesome candlesticks are so small that they are only used at birthday parties...
ReplyDeleteAustralian floods send coal prices soaring
ReplyDeletehttp://tgr.ph/f4A37W
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/12/net-asset-value-of-certain-precious_29.html
ReplyDeleteI like those "ever flame" candlesticks.
ReplyDeleteThat you continue to blow on and blow on and they never go out.
"Australian floods send coal prices soaring"
ReplyDeleteGee - I'd thot it was the anxious anticipation of the new "caol fired" Chevy Volts...
Tesla Does Cars the Silicon Valley Way
ReplyDeleteTesla has bounced back after Monday's lockup drop. Nonetheless, many comments I received on my Tesla posts show skepticism, and ask what is so special about Tesla. This week's Economist tackles that question. Simply put, Tesla went about designing its battery packs the Silicon Valley way, while Chevy with its Volt and Nissan with its Leaf went about it the car company way.
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/12/tesla-does-cars-the-silocn-valley-way.html
Merry Christmas Chet, this one's fi you, from the I...
ReplyDeletehttp://bushcraftusa.com/forum/index.php
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Portugal-Bond-Sales-in-2011-bloomberg-686674926.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDelete"Portugal, struggling to cut the euro region’s fourth-largest budget deficit, plans to sell as much as 20 billion euros ($26 billion) in bonds next year to help finance the gap.
The country’s total borrowing needs are expected to be about 20 billion euros, the debt agency, known as the IGCP, said today in an e-mailed statement. The government plans to sell a new bond through banks in the first quarter, it said."
....Me wonders, what is the differnce in selling bonds you can't pay back in Portugal and QE here?
The Ivory Tower is beginning to stir. One of the huge problems that we have faced is how extensively the media and the intelligentsia were bribed and bought off by bankster interests during The Quiet Coup.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sachs173/English
Watch out Jeff, I can see that Black Helicopter outside your window.
Anyway it's good that Stiglitz and Simon Johnson have a little bit more company in calling it like it is.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Krugmeister, he is either on the take, or is just plain too dumb to realize what is going on. Having read some of his thoughts on commodity markets I have a feeling it may be the latter, or is he simply afraid of pointing out criminal activity?
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteThanks... Now if "Mad Max" never actually happens, we can STILL blame it on Bush(craft)...
"We make money the old-fashioned way,
ReplyDeleteWe earn it."
...Ah, now that was a commercial for the ages...
"We make money the old-fashioned way,
ReplyDeleteWe arbitrage it."
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/29/justice-warns-on-wall-street-trading-cartel/
ReplyDeletea third party in the US? that'll be the day..
Krugman=Deaf, Dumb & Blind with emphasis on the Dumb.
and if that doesn't work, we get our alumni in DC to change the LAWS of the land for our benefit, or just IGNORE the ones on the books.
ReplyDeleteSquid have to eat too. Or rather, assimilate financial matter.
CHS - Perpetual motion is impossible, but Japan has managed the illusion of perpetual debt for 20 years.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/japans-perpetual-debt-machine-2010-12
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/29/news/economy/Christmas_week_sales_drop/index.htm
ReplyDelete$1 billion: Blizzard's cost to retailers
Monday was particularly brutal. Many potential shoppers were snowbound or digging out from the storm.
ShopperTrak estimates that stores nationwide saw 13.9% lower traffic than the average level expected had the blizzard not hit.
....and
"And at this point the prospect of momentarily pausing a potential $1 billion in sales has the collective industry holding its breath," Martin said.
"While we do think there will be some retail strength later this week as folks begin to dig out, it will be interesting to see if levels recover in time to boost December sales and the overall holiday shopping season," Martin said.
We make money the old fashioned way...
ReplyDeleteWe pimp for it & steal it...
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?title=wu-tang-financial&videoId=11887
ReplyDelete"$1 billion: Blizzard's cost to retailers"
ReplyDeleteThat the biggest load of bulls*** line I hear every year...
Johnny: "Mom I want the new 'World of Warcraft X-box game' for Christmas"...
Mom "OK son, but let's wait until after Christmas and we'll get it ON SALE... While I'm at it, I'm going to buy that coat & snuggie at 50% off"
Abigail "And a new iPhone for me, remember?"
SNOWSTORM DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS LATER
Johnny "Mom - It's after Christmas, can we go to Game Stop now?"
Mom "No Johnny, there's a foot of snow on the ground and the roads are dangerous"...
Abigail "But Mom, I looked at the weather report and it looks like it's going to be 45 degrees tomorrow - all the roads will have been cleared and the sun will be out"
Mom "No kids - no presents this year after all... That snowstorm means we're cancelling all gift giving" Sorry! & I'm just going to have to tough it out this winter without a coat...
---
WTF happened to all that "internet retail" buying that they tell you about when they want to impress you with THE RECOVERY?
I'm guessing the 12 inches of snow in New jersey took down the World Wide Web...
Nobody dispenses gloom more cheerfully than Gary:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-and-now-house-prices-will-now-drop-another-20-2010-12?sailthru_m=h2c#depressed-yet-we-are-too-but-at-least-as-a-business-insider-reader-youll-get-a-discount-on-gary-shillings-research-27
I thought since AUDJPY & EURJPY have been down most of the day the market would be selling off. Also since someone is buying 10 and 30 year bonds money was flowing from equities to bonds. Yet here we are continually inching higher.
ReplyDeleteYen is up big so a carry trade is getting blown up somewhere.
Gary Shilling got coal in his stocking...
ReplyDeleteAnother readable set of scenarios. We agree with the 2% 10y call made here. As he states, and G Shilling would agree, they MUST keep long end rates low or housing market does a DEEP DIVE. You wouldn't want that, right Timmeh? Might never get rid of that pile of sticks in Mamaroneck.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/seven-for-eleven-a-set-of-macro-thoughts-for-the-year-2011-2010-12
Our view is that the commodity boom is already unsustainable for the US and that China/India are showing acute signs of inflation stress and asset over-heating. There will be a cooling off sooner rather than later, and yes, the summer is likely to be very strong for US fixed income.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-hugh-hendry-ashton-kutcher-recommends-you-panic-and-prepare-apocalpyse
ReplyDeleteCV, your new business? personal "survival" trainer
"I thought since AUDJPY & EURJPY have been down most of the day the market would be selling off."
ReplyDeleteRemember that dollar, and especially yen, carry trades are the staple of hedge funds and prop desks. Right now the only active traders are Brian Sack and JOHN E, neither of whom utilizes the carry trade. Brian because he has a SACK of liquidity, and JOHN E, he trades with Special Tools.
and speaking of losing power, on cue: Breaking News
ReplyDeleteSevere winter storm knocks out power to some 10,000 in Lake Tahoe area http://bit.ly/hukT2J
WIld Boar...
ReplyDeleteCinghale, with a glass of Primitivo. Or perhaps two.
Hmmm, I wonder if BR will grace us with an
ReplyDeleteAston Kutcher is not a "wall streeter" so you shouldn't listen to him post, and then follow it up with some of his own "expertise" on global warming.
funny guy that Barry
@karen
ReplyDeleteCV & AK... Whoda thunk it?
See? If I keep the message going, it reaches clear to Hollywood...
Anyway... The 'real' secret plan is this... I was hoping my message would get to him...
By now, he's driving Demi absolutely crazy with this "BS" about Krav Maga... (She's surely about to leave him)... So I'm about to switch gears and go in and swoop her up...
Remember you and I complimented her as "best dressed" at the Ocsars last year? Planting seeds... Planting seeds... CV is always thinking ahead!
Demi is not even HALF as hot as Karen...
ReplyDeletesome nice action on TLT calls today, hoping AAIP got some.
ReplyDeletenice trade if so
retail seems set for a nice 40-60 point rise from here before they hold to long and watch it all go up in smoke, only fitting since they missed the first 600 points.
Ashton is preparing for a life in the DEMI-MONDE..?
ReplyDelete...one of Aston Kucher's listed fears...
ReplyDeleteeffing GARBAGE DISPOSALS...
Yeah... with no electricity, the garbage disposal won't work!
That was sure high on MY list!
Instead of running around in the canyons and playing Hong Kong Phooey (Tel Aviv style)... Maybe you could spend your time turning coffee grinds and eggshells into compost... or something useful like that...
I'll be back...
ReplyDeleteI can't wait to get to the comment section on that one...
The ZH'ers out to rip him a new "you know what"...
I'll call that my entertainment for the week :-)
"retail seems set for a nice 40-60 point rise from here before they hold to long and watch it all go up in smoke"
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. On or before Jan 13th. The confiscation of the new 401k money. It's traditional, and Wall Street worships its hallowed traditions.
You will see the high yield stuff zoom in the first week and then watch all the old hands at the FI shops move into Treasuries.
TZA and TLT is probably the right combo when we get there.
AFIATBNL:
ReplyDeleteYou haven't been losing power lately, have you pal? Just wondering...
Favre fined 50K. He buys more jeans than that a year...
ReplyDeleteThe canyons wouldn't be a great place to survive, no water.
ReplyDeleteGood old fashioned agricultural land, but preferably a bit out of the way, in between some mountains, or with some natural barrier like a river, and a long way away from city dwellers and exurban zombies. The best protection would be nobody knowing that you exist. Zombies will raid the nearest farms first, after their neighborhoods have been sacked.
It will happen if the elite miscalculates. This will make the 60s and 70s seem like a picnic.
amazing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory
ReplyDeleteSome kind of funny comments...
ReplyDeleteBest one thus far...
"Whenever you see a guy crossing his arms to show off his biceps you know he's a wanna-be..."
I'm surprised nobody has yet made the correlation to Mel Gibson & Mad Max...
I'm sure it's coming...
"You haven't been losing power lately, have you pal?
ReplyDeleteJust wondering..."
Full power.
In case K has liquidity issues and emergency pumping is needed.
@anon (3:01)
ReplyDeleteAgreed...
The "canyons" around that area are Benedict, Topanga, and further out, Las Virgenes...
They were nice "hippy" retreats in the 60's... But I doubt they'd be the ticket for TEOTWAWKI
Looks like another night on the pumps:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-29/southern-california-prepares-for-more-rain-after-record-storms-last-week.html
Southern California Hit With New Storm Amid Record December Rain
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akRxDSYEl8CE
I think Karen would dump
ReplyDeleteyour
sump
pump.
@anon
ReplyDelete"Good old fashioned agricultural land, but preferably a bit out of the way, in between some mountains, or with some natural barrier like a river, and a long way away from city dwellers and exurban zombies
agreed with this too...
CV is hoping if anything bad ever happens, some THINKING person will "dynamite" the 340 crossing over the Potomac & Shenandoah...
Of course I'd never do something like that...
Everyone who lives in "pretend country" within 50 miles of major cities, like banksters who have "horse farms" in CT and actors in LA's "rugged canyons" would get taken out in less than a week of TEOTWAWKI.
ReplyDeleteOnly the real farmers, cowboys and lumberjacks would make it through an urban insurrection b/c they would be far enough away to ride it out.
@karen
ReplyDeleteThe Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'. It is clear that this is connected to fossil fuel production, as electricity generation is mainly fuelled by oil, natural gas, coal and other non-renewable energy sources.
Are CV's 'thoughts' on the lunacy of "coal fired" Chevy Volts becoming more clear?
"I think K would dump your sump pump."
ReplyDeleteNonsense. We think that the lure of our throbbing piston would be well-nigh irresistible in the event of a sudden liquidity surge.
That's probably a yellow, I'd have to say....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/28/AR2010122803714.html
ReplyDeleteChina to raise sales tax on small cars Jan. 1
"Last year, China cut in half the sales tax rate on vehicles with engines of 1.6 liters or less. The measure was viewed as a means of stimulating the economy and encouraging smaller, more fuel-efficient engines.
But China will restore the sales tax on small cars to the full 10 percent beginning with the new year, the Ministry of Finance said Tuesday."
...Now how is it you plan for the China market? Sounds like their basement may be flooded...the good news just keeps on coming.
@anon (3:11)
ReplyDeleteAgree with that, in principle, again...
But there's ANOTHER angle as well...
Whether we live in a 'connected' world or not... KNOWLEDGE & TEAMWORK are tantamount...
The problem with bankers isn't so much that they bought a horse farm 50 miles from manhattan with their Bernanke Bucks...
Their problem is, that they order $100 steaks in Manhattan that are prepared by a whole array of people with special knowledge...
Not one of these bankers knows how to make...
- a biltong
- or even tie a square knot for crying out loud
- They couldn't tell you the difference between a BK-2 knife and a butter knife
The only "fires" they know how to start are financial ones...
Nenner pegged Dec 2012 as the start of it..
ReplyDeleteOne man's throbbing piston would be another man's tiny bubble.
ReplyDeleteConfusedus.
@Bruce (3:20)
ReplyDeleteSee... That must be why GM is up 2,6% today...
Higher taxes = more government revenues to give subsidies to the union auto workers...
Isn't that how it works?
@karen (3:23)
ReplyDeleteThat's funny... The MAYANS pegged 2012 as the "end" of it...
Nenner must not be Mayan...
"first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire"
ReplyDeleteWell it's a good thing NBC is doing their part to help, because once a year, they put a little green peacock logo on the screen... Then, on Sunday evening, they dim 'some' of the studio lights and light a few candles on the set to show us all how aware they are of the problem...
we were all talking like this before the last crash.. tho, no worries, because we cannot have another so soon. besides, the SEC has those failsafe algos in place.
ReplyDeleteBloombergNow
ReplyDeleteAIG Didn't Report $18.7 Billion of Company Guarantees http://bit.ly/hVazeF
And Michele Obama...
ReplyDeleteMO has perfected a method of growing okra using "psychic powers"...
She can grow okra as far away as Washington DC from all the way in Spain!
I bet Ashton Kucher hasn't learned THAT trick yet!
But I'm sure Michele Obama & huppy will be 'teaching' their disciples this method very soon...
ReplyDeleteAfter all... AK & DM are their 'humble servants'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTQawLBC59g
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of General Motors and Blackstone group are in focus for Wednesday after-hours session.
ReplyDeleteGM (GM 36.15, +0.83, +2.35%) won a buy rating and a $43 price target from ConvergEx Group. Analysts cited December vehicle sales and the Detroit auto show as potential catalysts for the stock.
Blackstone Group (BX 14.41, +0.28, +1.98%) has moved to acquire Centro Properties Group , an Australian shopping-center owner, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. The size of the deal couldn’t be determined, according to the report, which cited people close to the matter.
That BX purchase has nothing to do with this however:
HousingWire Housing Wire
New bill set to cut taxes on foreign REIT investments http://goo.gl/fb/VmfjB #hw
nobody at the SEC is smart enough to program an algo that can keep up with traders at places like GS or JPM.
ReplyDeletethe people that can't get into those shops work at Moody's and the SEC.
re: 2012, thought I read somewhere recently the long count calendar had been reinterpreted and the 2012 date was incorrect?
OK, we have toiled valiantly at the coal face of Double Entendre today but our work is surely done for the day...
ReplyDeleteWe shall reconvene tomorrow.
HYG 90.03, poking above the safety zone...
"poking"? "safety zone"?
ReplyDeleteparting gifts...
all,
ReplyDeleteI expect markets to be up and down in 2011, just letting you all know. up and down. there is a good probability of some sideways action.....at some point, as well.
just look for a catalyst, without them trends extend forever.
Wise words, Señor Cliché.
ReplyDeleteThe trend is your friend. Volatility rocks.
JBTFD
ReplyDeleteThere it was...
ReplyDeleteThat was your dip...
Did you buy it?
Off to go run in the canyons and do some Krav Maga peeps...
ReplyDeleteCatch you all later... Higher Ground karen... Higher Ground...
MD 13 - ECU 3 at halftime (Maryland was my 'pick' from last Saturdays BOWL PICKS thread)...
Two other NCAA games tonight - my picks are there [Saturday] if you're curious...
i need to go out and sing in the rain now.. stock up on wine, too. check back later..
ReplyDelete% ups, .15 for the NAZ, .09 for the Dow, and .10 for the S&P.. just sayn'
Bye... stay warm and dry.
ReplyDeleteAt least until you open the wine....
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MCP
ReplyDeleteMolycorp (Rare Earths)on the Warpath~
AAIP
don't forget that tomorrow is claims day, among other newsy items.. but it will all be decided in the overnight anyway..
ReplyDelete8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claim
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Pending Home Sale
1:00 PM Crude Inventories
this 'little one' has been doing well..
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=qrm.v
3:53PM EST: 5.59 0.79 (16.46%)
ibid.
keep an eye on this stock NDM
ReplyDeletethat might be a nice M&A target right there if someone had some "hot" money they want to play with.
Hot money nick ugh...
ReplyDeleteGetchu sum.
5-Year Treasury 2.029 -0.121 -5.63%
ReplyDelete10-Year Treasury 3.341 -0.14 -4.02%
30-Year Treasury 4.409 -0.14 -3.08%
http://finviz.com/
wow, wasn't expecting this kind of 'turnaround', yesterday..
"T-Bonds.com"
the vol. in the USTreas-complex, over this last interim has been amazing..
AAIP