Looky there, you even have a packet of smokes (that you can lose in a poker game against Obama, or Jamie Dimon & some matches to set yourself on fire with once you realize that "hope & change" really meant hope FOR change [as in "pocket" change] unless you happen to have one of those FAT government or banking jobs)...
But I'm here to help... Here's what's on (& what's NOT on the breakfast menu for today)...
1. ORANGE JUICE - Forgeddaboutit!... The "music died" the day Anita Bryant sang her last concert...
COFFEE - If you're into Starbucks (SBUX) Caramel Macchiatos, (which also require SUGAR - unless you like to Juan Valdez it)...It's going to be tough sledding (or, you better hope you have a sled to get to (SBUX) because... #3 CRUDE OIL - is up too...We'll get there in a minute... But first, (speaking of
2. OATMEAL cookies are going to off limits for Santa's visit this year... If you were an obedient little liberal airhead, you may have long since made the switch to CORN based bio diesel... But that's up even more than crude... Worse, it requires a lot of WATER to grow corn, or otherwise perform geo-fraccing procedures to extract natural gas... But you don't have to worry about that, because some of TWSWB's self described "smartest people on the planet" will tell you no problemo...
I mean... the "logic" is... "Hey, water only goes up from a penny a gallon to 3 cents"... Right? What harm could that possibly do? Let's not bother with, whether or not the Ogallala Acquifer has been depleted 50% in the last few decades... We can just go back to "Dust Bowl" methods... They worked fine... Or, even if Obama has another unicorn that besides crapping skittles, also pissed water, that a rise in price from 1 penny to 3 pennies is STILL a 300% increase... I'm sure Barry's geniuses wouldn't mind applying that same logic to gasoline prices today... It's THAT easy, right?
Back to our breakfast menu... I'm thinking that because...
3. CRUDE OIL prices (and other fuels) are up... I gotta learn how to make an Egg McMuffin at home... Because as it turns out...
4a. LEAN HOGS (my Canadian Bacon)
4b. PORK BELLIES (I knew it)
4c. WHEAT (for the English Muffin)
are all flat to down... Hooray...
Let's let Betty from Kentucky show us how it's done...
Betty's sons best friend works at McDonald's and taught her the secret (I'm more fond of watching betty do it though)... Oh, and you have your handy "catfood" cans to serve as the egg poaching rings)
No "English Muffin" you say? No problem... As illustrated, "4c WHEAT" happens to be down, and these dudes can tell you how to solve the nook & cranny mystery...
The great thing about that is what CV always likes to describe as "scalability"... You could go all the way up the chain to Eggs Benedict... Or you could just go down home and go the "grits" route (hardly even need a stove for that)...
5. LUMBER & COTTON are the cheapest things out there, so a basic wood fire, or, better yet, burning all those worthless FRN's could be your answer there...
Glad you enjoyed our little "breakfast sermon" this morning... Now, when the markets open, go out there and JBTFD, and maybe you'll make enough money by the weekend to take in some more "grits" at the picture show this weekend...
bonus link - John Wayne - Best Actor - True Grit (1969)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qQhODwivLU&feature=related
CV:
ReplyDeleteI too enjoyed Betty's muffins...
now for a little more gloom:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/medicaid-demands-push-states-toward-cliff-even-as-governors-cut-benefits.html
Medicaid Demands Push States Toward `Cliff' Even as Governors Cut Benefits
"
Governors nationwide are taking a scalpel to Medicaid, the jointly run state and federal health-care program for 48 million poor Americans, half of whom are children. The single biggest expense for states, Medicaid consumes about 22 percent of their total $1.6 trillion in expenditures, more than what is allocated to elementary and secondary education, according to a National Governors Association report.
With federal stimulus funds to help states pay higher Medicaid costs running out June 30, “we’re heading for a cliff in July,” said Brian Sigritz, director of state fiscal studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers in Washington.
Medicaid enrollment has jumped 13.6 percent since the recession began in 2007, according to the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation based in Menlo Park, California. The 2009 federal stimulus bill and a supplemental appropriation this year allocated a total of $103 billion for Medicaid. With that funding ending, state health-care expenditures may climb as much as 25 percent in fiscal 2012, according to a Kaiser report."
...I also enjoyed Betty's explanation of how she got her can......
ReplyDelete(Lefty, you'll just have to watch the video.)
http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2298
ReplyDeleteWith 20 percent of the world’s population but just 7 percent of its available freshwater, China faces serious water shortages as its economy booms and urbanization increases. The government is planning massive water diversion projects, but environmentalists say conservation — especially in the wasteful agricultural sector — is the key.
by christina larson
On a recent visit to the Gobi desert, which stretches across China’s western Gansu province, I came upon an unusual sign. In the midst of a dry, sandy expanse stood a large billboard depicting a settlement the government intended to build nearby — white buildings surrounded by lush, green, landscaped lawns, and in the center a vast, gleaming blue reservoir. The illustration’s bright colors were quite unlike the actual surroundings, which consisted of dull sky that faded into a horizon of undulating, parched-brown hillsides...."
that Comment, by 'cognos', on TBP, was one of the most Ignorant things I've read in a while..
AAIP
More "bubbles" in Washington...
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AlbIwSjaJWRTiS.iu_Chk_IdsLYF?slug=ap-redskins-nobubble
if you've been wondering why you've been hearing about "USPS Deficits"...
ReplyDelete"...“The service’s thousands of delivery vehicles have only one purpose now: to transport mail,” Michael Ravnitzky, chief counsel to the chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission, wrote for the New York Times last week. “But what if they were fitted with sensors to collect and transmit information about weather or air pollutants? The trucks would go from being bulky tools of industrial-age communication to being on the cutting edge of 21st-century information-gathering and forecasting.”
“Data collection wouldn’t require much additional staff or resources; all it would take would be a small, cheap and unobtrusive sensor package mounted on each truck,” writes Ravnitzky.
He said outfitting the trucks would make “it significantly easier to spot a problem or anomaly” and the system “could assess road quality, catalog potholes and provide early warning of unsafe road conditions like black ice.”..."
riight..
http://www.prisonplanet.com/plan-to-turn-post-office-trucks-into-stasi-data-collection-nodes.html
ibid.
"outfitting the trucks would make “it significantly easier to spot a problem or anomaly” and the system “could assess road quality, catalog potholes and provide early warning of unsafe road conditions like black ice.”...
ReplyDeletePerfect! So after Obama spends the money to outfit the mail trucks, and they tell him where all the potholes are, then he can go spend another $300 per sign for one of these...
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=american+recovery+%26+re-investment+act+sign&view=detail&id=C016D81767AC069636B562C95F246B612C672F00&first=31&FORM=IDFRIR&qpvt=
So 6 federal workers can stand around in a circle and supervise one worker filling the hole...
Then Obama can allocate another couple of billion to put up electronic signs that flash "SEATBELT WEARERS MAKE BETTER LOVERS"...
More effing liberal groupthink bull****
More likely they plan to outfit the mail trucks with camers for the Dept. of Homeland Security "spy on thy neighbor" campaign...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/obama-prepares-executive-order-indefinite-detention
They'll be able to spot which cars in which driveways have Obama/Biden "yes we did" bumper stickers on them and leave those good citizens alone...
The rest can be tossed into Gitmo... forever...
Oh no wait... we CLOSED Gitmo, right? That was promise #1...
@AAIP,
ReplyDeleteI completely agree, this idea that water is nothing to worry about, please, we've had people from India come on this very site and tell us that it is something that is on people's minds there and could certainly eventually lead to conflict.
@ben22
ReplyDeleteThe thing is... Water itself isn't quite so much a problem as "water management" is...
Of course, I know that all sounds like the same thing, but it ISN'T... quite...
Mass engineering projects are NOT the solution... Individual and micro situations are...
Go ask the Bolivians...
@ben22
ReplyDeleteCV has a "secret weapon" in at the WR position for this weekends game...
Surprised nobody else caught on to that possibility...
ReplyDeleteGotta think "out of the box" my friend :-)
BTW...
ReplyDeleteCongrats to the UCONN women's hoops team for getting to 89 straight wins (bettering the UCLA Men's streak of 88)...
89 though... FIBO NUMBER...
We are anxiously waiting the Existing Dome Sales number
ReplyDeleteWall Street is bullish on the Domebuilders ETF (DMB)
ReplyDeleteUsually this time of year there is a lot of money going into DMB.
Blackrock has been reassuring anxious investors that munis are safe.
ReplyDeleteUsually this time of year there is a lot of money going into MUB.
All assets are safe on Christmas Eve. Even Greek govies.
The above posts are for Ben, mainly.
ReplyDeleteEvery year, JOHN E and JANE come in off the street and give money to someone they don't know. It goes into MUB and DMB and a lot of other things that it's best not to think about, like "the commission"...
LB
ReplyDeleteAll you'll need is ONE muni to miss an interest payment (or ask for an extension) and that market will implode.
re: Betty's Homemade
ReplyDeleteK.I.S.S. Cook an egg however you like, put it on toast with salt, pepper and hot sauce. Done.
No, no, they are all quite safe. All asset classes are safe, look at this market. Nothing is falling at all, anywhere in the world.
ReplyDeleteNothing except a snowflake.
Some of the snow keeps going up my nose...
ReplyDeleteI kno, right?
ReplyDeleteBanks accused of illegally looting homes
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40777392/ns/business-the_new_york_times
"'When a burglar goes in, they don't take your photos and your husband's ashes,' says alleged victim of wrongful foreclosure...
"Or, even if Obama has another unicorn that besides crapping skittles, also pissed water"
ReplyDeletedid anyone else cough up some cereal reading that?
@fixed income analyst, this is on our company home page first thing this morning, and no I did not make this up:
ReplyDeleteTax-free funds can benefit clients and communities
Watch this Marketing Minute to learn how advisor XXXXX Johnson finds the appropriate mix of tax-free municipal bond funds to suit her clients' needs while supporting communities across the country. Then, be sure to click on the Read more about Tax-free Municipal Bonds link for more details and information you can use to implement this Marketing Minute idea in your own practice.
your observations are spot on.
wonder how Karen is holding up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weather.com/weather/today/San+Clemente+CA+USCA0981?from=tenDay_topnav_wedding
Einhorn is Finkle, Finkle is Einhorn:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/greenlight-capitals-david-einhorn-on-bloomberg-television/
Sort of looking forward to True Grit on Christmas Day.
ReplyDeleteMiserable night for me, Ben.. up every few hours to run pump and then shut if off.. I practically slept in my raincoat and boots. Kept the water out of my garage tho! Now I am having a miserable morning, too.
ReplyDeletesorry to hear that karen, looks like you've got a day or so left of it, good luck.
ReplyDeletehttp://mysimplequant.blogspot.com/2010/12/vix-and-s-500-close-two-up-straight.html
ReplyDeleteben, you mentioned this yesterday, i believe.
last question in that DE video is priceless,
ReplyDelete"lots of people are looking at the trend in claims and using that as a reason to buy stocks, do you look at jobs when you determine what stocks to buy"
DE: Not really, no.
the end.
bwahahahahahaha
I did Karen, I'm not sure that has tremendous predictive power but probability says we close in the red today.
ReplyDeletePOMO! are you ready for it, LOL
ReplyDeleteI started to prepare around 1:30 this morning
ReplyDeleteI got a POMO t-shirt
its the color of green shoots.
It Never Rains In Southern California
ReplyDeleteeven he was out of work and underfed... in the 70's!
year to date (yesterday) Oceanside received 21+ inches of rain.. last year, 5.
ReplyDeleteI think we had about 3 additional inches overnight; later i will measure my bucket!
The action in the DXY is NOT inspiring to me here. I'm tightening the stop loss now to 80.24. Just don't like the look of it in terms of very short term trading.
ReplyDeletenice video anon, I like The Strokes a lot, and Albert Hammond Jr's solo disc from a year or two ago is pretty good as well.
ReplyDeleteForgot about that song! maybe it can replace the KO jingle CV has me on : )
ReplyDeleteJJC candles doing what they did last week.
ReplyDeleteBreaking News, SoCal storms: High water has forced Amtrak to cancel passenger rail service between Los Angeles and San Diego
ReplyDeleteI have a PhD in economics, you know...
ReplyDeleteDiana Olick
ReplyDelete31% of home buyers in Nov. all cash...19% investors (NAR) 2010 still expected to end with 4.8M homes sold.
CV,
ReplyDeleteJoe Webb?
that td run he has was pretty nice the other night.
What's Aaron Rodgers going to do this week?
I have a degree in... enforcement...
ReplyDeleteExisting Dome Sales - Yr/Yr Change -27.9 %
ReplyDeletedid any of you ever look at those slides BR put together for that Agoria Symposium, there were tons of great slides on RRE, and after reviewing that data you'd really have to get crazy subjective to start saying housing has hit bottom.
ReplyDelete@Copper
ReplyDeleteNickles birchez!
you must skim this!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thesmokingjacket.com/humor/seven-insane-black-markets-you-wont-believe-actually-exist
@McF (10:33)
ReplyDeleteYou're missing the point...
I'm starting Joe Webb at the WR position...
FXA at hod.. someone make it stop going up!
ReplyDeleteKaren ,
ReplyDeleteyesterday you wondered if 1254 became support, it's hugging it pretty well.
maybe though we shouldn't be searching for so many "answers" this time of year.
yeah I saw where you were starting him, who's going to throw the ball to him?
ReplyDeleteI'm just wondering what you are gonig to do if AR doesn't play, or if he comes out early, it would seem he's still a little out of sorts, not that I mind that of course.
where is 18? 1260, coming up..
ReplyDeleteben, forget the pomo shirt.. don your NO FEAR shirt, please, cuz there is NO DOUBT about 1260.
ReplyDeleteI have a question for anybody who knows anything about this type of thing...
ReplyDeleteDo stocks ever GO DOWN????
http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/12/deep-thoughts-in-internet-business-age.html
ReplyDeleteDo stocks ever GO DOWN????
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely not. Next question...
Do stocks ever GO DOWN????
ReplyDeleteI went down a few times....
I had a deep dive with Jamie
ReplyDeletecan't remember if this was posted already.. i noted it yesterday but never read it till today: 10 Truly Outrageous Market Predictions for 2011
ReplyDeleteBy Steen Jakobsen
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/investing-investment-stock-stocks-stock-market/12/22/2010/id/31828
CV,
ReplyDeletewhy don't you join the party and just make a predictions list for 2011 of totally assinine things that couldn't all possibly come to pass, join the marketing PR scheme that's so popular it seems.
We often throw wet noodles at the wall in the office here
I have a question for anybody who knows anything about this type of thing...
ReplyDeleteDoes it ever stop raining?
Karen I would be happy to help you measure your bucket.
ReplyDeleteNo.
ReplyDeleteNot yet anyway.
http://pragcap.com/bullishness-hits-a-fresh-high
ReplyDeleteSteve Sears - off all week for Xmas, but hard to ignore Mr. Market. XLF continues to attract size buyers 100k+ March 17 calls.
ReplyDelete@AJC
ReplyDeleteOh I get it now... I wasn't supposed to JBTFD...
I'm supposed to JBTF Rip...
I am pretty bearish on Q1 (Euro sovereign and muni disaster) but not that bearish on equities for the rest of 2011, b/c of the likelihood of a QE3 to bail out the muni disaster.
ReplyDeleteThat probably wasn't the real leftback. Too subtle.
oh come on now, who's bullish QE4
ReplyDeleteany takers on QE10?
zerohedge-In past 10 days, the S&P 500 has closed at 52-week highs with less than 2-to-1 positive breadth 8 times. Last this happened was March 1998
ReplyDeletePersonally...
ReplyDeleteI think QE10^10 is already priced in...
Obviously we will play what we see, but the lesson of Japan is exactly that: renewed bouts of deflation, continued ZIRP and QE to infinity.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, with $wtic taking aim at $100, is a China tightening over the xmas or new year holiday completely off the table? We are already contemplating another shot at the trade known to those in the trade only as The Widowmaker....
@karen
ReplyDelete1998... LTCM
That's just what I think is waiting to happen...
They need a convenient LTCM or Waddell & Reed to make it all seem like a "fat finger"...
oops... my bad...
QE∞
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about me...
ReplyDeleteYou just need to think about buying the fucking dip...
QE∞^∞
ReplyDeleteThere... fixed it...
TIPS spread out to 2.33% for 10y10y expectations.
ReplyDeleteLook for this to push higher for a few months.
The commodity bubble will take a while to pop.
Once that begins, it will be time to switch to vanilla Treasuries.
For now we think TIPS will outperform.
I would think if you go over and help Karen measure her bucket, and she doesn't want her bucket measured...that might be the Widowmaker...
ReplyDelete1998... LTCM
ReplyDeleteThere are any numbers of LTCMs out there, but it's doubtful any HF would be bailed out this time unless the entire banking system was tied in.
We will see some spectacular blow-ups in HFs. So many macro HFs out there with high leverage and widely disparate strategies... no way they are all going to be correct.
GDX is soft this week.
ReplyDeleteWarm up the Widowmaker....
New Video: Danny Riley with Pre-Christmas Trade and Holiday Wishes http://mrtopstep.com/?p=1768
ReplyDeletenew aapl high
ReplyDeleteIt’s Gonna Be A Loooong Afternoon…
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 22, 2010 at 16:47 GMT
Looks like we’re finally getting into the holiday spirit with markets settling into fairly tight ranges.
Money continues to exit the euro zone through the door into Switzerland making EUR/CHF the subject of most of the market’s limited attention.
So far, not a peep from the SNB, other than to deny that President Hildebrand said that EUR/CHF could plummet to 0.50…
Mo matter, the market has taken it upon itself to make a run for the “non-target”…
Fresh record lows for the cross just above 1.2450 as we write…
"The U.S. government is going worldwide to repatriate as much money as possible and they will aggressively go after all money in all corners of the world to do so."
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Deutsche-Bank-US-tax-fraud-rb-976582786.html
"There are any numbers of LTCMs out there, but it's doubtful any HF would be bailed out this time unless the entire banking system was tied in."
ReplyDeleteWas this lesson lost in 2008? Isn't this exactly what David Einhorn has been saying in every single interview he's done in the last several weeks which is that we never solved the underlying interconnectedness issues within the system, of course it's all still connected/tied in, when credit supports credit and that credit is dependant on other credit and on and on that's the only way it can be. I certainly see no evidence of any financial institutions that are currently standing on their own.
http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-jp-morgan-does-not-own-all-that-copper-lme-single-trader-2010-12
ReplyDeleteThe Swissy making a run for the roses as a haven trade for Europe.
ReplyDeletePlaying like the old DM it replaced.
In Asia we are seeing a similar story, JGBs rallied astonishingly these last few days, don't think we have seen the last of the strong JPY. If China sneezes, the baht and ringgit catch a cold, and there will be a run to JPY.
Remember the big smart money isn't sleeping, but it is stealthy.
I can go to work while JOHN E is sleeping...
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteThat's why the really big massive HFs are scary, but their risk management is usually much better than at the banks, due to lower leverage.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/10-reasons-i-am-thinking-about-japan/
ReplyDeleteisnt HH short the yen big time?
ReplyDeleteThis is more or less our Q1 outlook, although we have been a bit more articulate in outlining it, possibly b/c we have less whisky to drink than these chaps. But basically we agree.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/scottish-investors-seeking-secure-yields-say-politics-top-economy-in-2011.html
currently, both $xjy and fxy are about to hit resistance.. both still in downtrend and technicals are weak.
ReplyDeleteWe think that Barry is about 9% late on Japan. But we agree with a lot of the story, this will be the next JBTFD trade.
ReplyDeleteOnce we get past the China tightening. That will knock 5-7% off the Asian and Aussie markets, JPY may make a double top or a right shoulder.
After that happens, long EWJ and short JPY is one of our faves.
We are hearing a lot of chatter about Brazil not exactly being the most honest place in the world in terms of accounting/banking. A little commodity bust might expose a few skeletons, we hear...
lol, NOW we have a dbl top in aapl.. at just over 325 each..
ReplyDeletehey, CV, the 3 peaks and dome are still in play.. really apparent on a 3 mo daily chart.
I posted this yesterday: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3SlTISInpzc
ReplyDeleteDec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The first investigation into Brazil’s asset-backed securities industry, rising consumer delinquencies and the biggest rout of a bank stock in more than a decade are opening cracks in the country’s financial system...
Dollar carry trade can't continue here with $wtic looking at $100.
ReplyDeleteSo the obvious solution is we have a little sell-off and then they ramp up the yen carry trade as the US recovery continues to grind along.
FX people call this "regime change".
http://www.businessinsider.com/googles-christmas-gift-to-nyc-real-estate-19-billion-in-cash-2010-12
ReplyDeleteA commodity bust would expose severe structural problems in Brazil, Canada and Australia. India and China are the big consumers, and they are choking on the commodity inflation imposed by Bennie.
ReplyDeleteSmart Aussies are bailing out of their stock market, dominated as it is by miners. The widowmaker would be a tough one for the ASX and the FTSE for that matter. Smart Canadians are extremely worried about their housing bubble at this point.
U.S. fund managers rebuilt their equity holdings in December to one of the highest points this year on signs of a swifter economic recovery, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/40778870
11600 here we come.
ReplyDeleteIt pays to be a Bear.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/nouriel-roubinis-5m-east-village-triplex-penthouse-2010-12
that is such OLD news!!
ReplyDeleteGold is doing nothing. The widowmaker is coming....
ReplyDeleteEven copper is having second thoughts today.
That's true. I have a PhD in economics, you know.
ReplyDeleteI peeked at the Baltic Dry and it's awfully quiet on the seas.
If I am not being shipped in large amounts, demand may be falling.
No need to worry about a thing. All US asset classes are safe.
ReplyDeleteStocks, munis. We got em all.
Want to diversify? NO problem. China, Brazil.
Get 'em while they are hot.
Even Spanish and Greek bond yields are going up.
That's good, right?
bot synchronicity again if you ask me..
ReplyDeleteand new FAZ low..
This is extremely good and we are in agreement with almost all of it, including the fact that US divvys and high yield corporates will probably sail through this unscathed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/scott-minerds-detailed-pre-mortem-what-europes-bank-run-will-look-and-other-observations
There is clearly a run on the banks in Ireland. We are hearing chatter of physical dollar shortages in a variety of countries (not just Zimbabwe). The prospects for another dollar squeeze seem quite strong, another reason why the Fed is readying its swap mechanisms again. This will not be pretty.
We think there is room for one more catalyst before the next leg of the Euro crisis plays out. Cue China.
You can please send us your dollars if you don't want it.
ReplyDeleteWe can offer finest Mugabe bonds.
karen said...
ReplyDeletewhere is 18? 1260, coming up..
I kno!, huh, but, it smacks into 1260 then down we go, IMO (but I've been wrong before)
Not watching the market, been busy. Been thinking about going back to Reno or back to Half Moon Bay area (both crappy weather), kinda stuck in the middle. Wireless card/internet problems also... grrr :/
we haven't tapped the spx 10ema on the ten min chart once today.. on the 5 now.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/fed-extends-currency-swap-lines-over-eurobank-dollar-funding-concerns.html
ReplyDeleteGood thing ron is in charge.
Half Moon Bay area
ReplyDeleteFantastic golf course, almost like Pebble Beach.
Pretty good taco places too. Like fog?
http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-facts-about-china-2010-12
ReplyDeleteDon't miss the artichoke soup at Duarte's in Pescadero.
ReplyDeleteGotta go out for about an hour or so...
ReplyDeleteI'll just set my "autoshort" to S&P 1800 if we happen to tag it while I'm gone...
China market is a massive Ponzi scheme run by communists, featuring peasants and taxi drivers who invested in Shanghai stocks on margin while pretending to be investment bankers living in penthouses.
ReplyDeleteIt's only a matter of when the RoW wakes up.... and the China market retreats to the level of the Bosnia-Herzegovina market - the "Plenty Twenty".
We are pretty sure that hookers and blow are involved in Shanghai. Pretty sure. Trust, but verify, as Reagan said.
ReplyDeleteNot exactly sure what might be driving commodity inflation? What if due to the fact that you underbid the world in labor costs, and built up a war chest of unbelievable size. And you've bought up Australia. Then what?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-State-Grid-buys-Brazil-apf-1756827154.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
"SHANGHAI (AP) -- China's biggest electricity company, State Grid, says it is paying $989 million for seven Brazilian power companies and their transmission lines as it seeks to expand overseas.
The investment includes a 30-year concession to operate the Brazilian power grids that can be renewed for 20 years once it expires, according to a notice seen Wednesday on the website of the Chinese government agency that manages state assets.
The deal marks a further expansion of State Grid into overseas markets following a $3.9 billion, 25-year contract with the Philippines to run that country's power grid.
Though not well known abroad, State Grid says it is ranked eighth among the Fortune 500 and operates power lines across 26 of China's 32 provinces and regions. It is among many state-owned businesses that are heeding the government's call to "go out" by investing overseas."
...or you could go back to building cities that nobody lives in...so many choices, so little time.
5y UST yield is above the yield for SPY again.
ReplyDeleteThe no-brainer for Q1 2011 is probably just short EURUSD. I mean, Europe blows up, EURUSD falls. Europe bails everything in sight, EURUSD falls. You have to like these kind of trades.
We don't recommend shorting JPY here. EURJPY unwind is one reason, the other is China tightening leads to AUDJPY unwind and all the little Asian currencies will be sold, even SGD.
As with USD, any JPY strength for any reason triggers more unwinds and we can be back at USDJPY 80 in absolutely no time at all.
"Not exactly sure what might be driving commodity inflation? What if due to the fact that you underbid the world in labor costs, and built up a war chest of unbelievable size. And you've bought up Australia."
ReplyDeleteCorrect. Many many markets are now leveraged to Chinese demand. So between European sovereigns and China, we have a few swans on the pond. None visible to JOHN E, or BRIAN, however. Bring in those sacks of cash JOHN, bring those 401k contributions and we'll put them to work.
How hard can it be to learn Mandarin?
ReplyDeleteI know the phrase "No tickee, no washee" already.....
And Chinese demand usually flatlines for the holidays.
ReplyDeleteChinese New Year 2011, February 3.
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/12/qe-and-stocks-the-japanese-experience.html
ReplyDeletethis is for CV because he loves it when they say "... on the economy."
ReplyDeleteStocks, Oil Climb to Two-Year Highs on Economy; Treasuries Fall
http://bit.ly/gRurMr
That post on qe/japan includes this:
ReplyDelete[I] do see at least one compelling reason to stay net long in equities right now: The wheels are coming off the bond market.
This is completely wrong as far as the US is concerned. Remember that US Treasury bond investors are primarily institutional (banks, pension funds) and sovereign (China, Japan, UK). It's not a panic market. We refer you all to the well known history of JGBs.... yawn...
The solution to high yields is high yields, people will buy them !
The BDIY is looking a tad anemic, Copper. (I still have fond memories of all those old movies you were in years ago. Everyone knew you. As in,"Don't shoot, Copper, I'm coming out.")
ReplyDeleteBut DRYS must not be paying attention.
Old CR says inventory increased >5% Y/Y.
ReplyDelete"Inventory is very high, and the year-over-year increase in inventory is very concerning. The high level of inventory will continue to put downward pressure on house prices."
...JBTFD?
http://www.clevescene.com/64-and-counting/archives/2010/12/22/absolutely-epic-1974-letter-from-cleveland-browns-to-a-fan
ReplyDeleteWhat would TWSWB do?
ReplyDeleteMaybe we should have a DRYS/BDIY ratio plot? I bet that is pretty high right now... another divergence from the mean.
ReplyDeleteThe phrase you are looking for is:
"Don't shoot, guv'nor. It's a fair cop"
Karen:
ReplyDeleteI liked the letters very much. I did see last night on Knoxville TV a legal eagle advertisement for ANY accident victim to call for an evaluation. ANY injury. I guess the ambulances must be driving faster and chasing must be harder than it used to be.
Apparently they will evaluate your injury over the phone, and if they think there might be money in it, you are invited THEN to come by the office...
...an interesting way to make a living.
Most of the governors went to jail without a fight. Perp walk sort of thingy..
ReplyDelete:)
ReplyDeleteMust...
ReplyDeleteResist...
The Widowmaker....
Highs for the year seen today (just thinking outloud)
ReplyDeleteSPX, AAPL, even stocks like KFT, JNJ, XOM starting to see some obscure bear stuff.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/refuting-housing-recovery-falacy-courtesy-fed
ReplyDeleteA sensible proposal to simply cease interfering in the housing market and let the market clear - from the Dallas Fed !!
Perhaps now that the banks have accumulated a shedload of Tier 1 capital (Treasuries) they can survive the resulting write-downs as we undergo a wave of deleveraging? Holding Ts would offset loan book losses if we take another trip to 2.00% TNX.
Commodity stocks? Emerging markets?
Sorry, JOHN E. Sold to you...
good if true: Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. credit-card delinquencies fell in November to the lowest in almost three years as the six biggest issuers posted improved numbers, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPn3GmYTVojI
Bloomberg Sues ECB
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 22, 2010 at 19:02 GMT
First they sued the Fed to get the names of banks that borrowed at the discount window during the financial crisis. Now Bloomberg is suing the ECB for details of the swaps that Greece used to fudge their way into the euro.
Be very alert for subtle changes in media tone, starting as early as next week. A post Santa pull-back is possible, then they will buy in again ahead of the momo from mutual fund flows.
ReplyDeleteLately they have played the bear music whenever they want to trigger a decent sell-off, very noticeable in the July-August period.
Jan 7 employment number. FOMC minutes Jan 4. They can play these any way they want to, weak/strong outlook, even good news can be bad in a ZIRP/QE environment !
U.S. credit-card delinquencies fell in November...
ReplyDelete... as consumer credit continues to decline, no?
@AFIA2BNL...
ReplyDelete"Be very alert for subtle changes in media tone, starting as early as next week. A post Santa pull-back is possible, then they will buy in again ahead of the momo from mutual fund flows."
CV has said about a half dozen times in the past 3 weeks that...
- the July '09 to April '10 rally was 201 trading days
- 61.8% of 201 = 124 days
- 124 days... since the July '10 lows... will occur on 12/27/10
12/27/10 happens to be... "starting as early as next week"... (and "after" Christmas - and "before" New Years)...
gee, how did that work out?
"U.S. credit-card delinquencies fell in November..."
ReplyDeleteAnswer: As AMEX, JPM, & BAC "write-off" and sell these accounts to Zwicker & Associates...
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/jim-oneill-goldmans-vocal-bull/
ReplyDelete2011 target 20% higher.. 1500
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/ten-economic-and-investment-themes-for.html
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely superb post from Mish, and I concur with every word. I could have written this, if I could actually write that is...
I agree that all of this stuff will happen in 2011, and THE ORDER they happen will be CRITICAL to the trading strategy.
e.g.
China slowdown - activate the widowmaker, sell gold and AUD
Euro debt crisis - short the Euro, buy gold and dollars
Muni crisis - buy USTs
US employment growth - sell USTs, buy dollars
O'Neill will be "BRIC"ing it once China slows/tightens.
ReplyDeletere:
ReplyDeleteJapan and US QE comparisons
I wonder a lot to what extent we enabled Japan's ability to QE since just as their credit deflation began ours was only in the early stages of the most parabolic debt rise in modern history.
If we are going to QE to infinity another country is going to need to fill the void. We know that Japan and the EU are out. Canada, Brazil and Australia even combined are not large enough. Russia is a no go as is the Middle East and Africa.
Can China do it? Can India? It's hard for me to wrap my head around that from a consumer level in China as I'm to understand it there are penalties for running up too much CC debt there, for example.
China will enable our QE b/c otherwise it is mutually assured destruction. BTW, anyone who thought we were already living in a f*sc*st police state?
ReplyDeleteYou're right. Independent of Dems and Reps, the banksters now run the country, supported by what appear to be private "militias" of repo men, "security" firms and "contractors". The courts look the other way.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/business/22lockout.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=business
ponzi, anyone?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/22/dividends-were-the-years-big-leveraged-loan-story/
well isn't that the problem though, it's a catch 22 for china, if they enable our QE they harm their own populace in the process via far higher commodity prices. they don't "win" by enabling it.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDelete2:42, fascinating article here.
What's striking about the 2010 figures, however, is that 16% of the new notes were sold to pay for dividends. That not only dwarfs last year, but also the prior high in 2005 (12%).
The div yield on the S&P and the DOW are extremely low anyway!
If Mr Market isn't going to go anywhere (quite likely) then offering dividends is going to be the only way to get investors in through the door, and the only way to delineate good companies from Pets.com
ReplyDeleteOil closes above $90 a barrel for first time since October 2008
ReplyDelete12/22/2010 02:46:14 PM
Ben, I'm quite sure this is how some of the REITS have continued to pay..
ReplyDeleteThe banks are the real Ponzis. Meager dividends will be erased by future write-downs and the need to issue more equity. See history of the large Japanese banks for details.
ReplyDeleteI have heard the arguments and I don't think that the dividends of the big pharma companies, the telecoms and some REITs are a bad deal. Sideways market, low inflation, no crisis, leaves divis and high yield as the winner.
There are shopping mall REITs that I would not touch b/c CRE is still quite problematic in some areas.
ReplyDeleteResidential rental and mortgage REITs will be fine unless there is a complete meltdown, but we already had that happen...
Of course, many still have vacancy issues.
ReplyDeletethe story all year was something like
earnings up, revenues down
"Residential rental and mortgage REITs will be fine unless there is a complete meltdown, but we already had that happen"
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go ahead and disagree with this. Let me point you in the direction of the Inland American private REIT, the most diversified private REIT in the country. They had a nice 20% revaluation of shares this year. These guys can't perform accounting fraud quite as easily as open ended REITS.
"it will be interesting to watch the performance of all these companies whose post-recessionary revenue increases were met by weightier debt burdens."
ReplyDelete..Uncle Ben says, he ain't heavy, he's my brother...
Ben B, not Ben 22...of course
ReplyDeletedon't tase me bro
ReplyDeleteThe point with dividend stocks is, you have to load up when you can. Don't be buying them right now, for example, wait for Mr Market to deliver them to you at a fire sale. Buying MRK in March 2009 has worked out OK.
ReplyDeleteWe also own a panel of them that we acquired in August and they are all up between 7-10%, independent of the dividend. That is a lot less than pets.com, NFLX and the commodity stocks, but this is a low beta universe and they are often UP on days when the market is down and vice versa on the screamers (beta to divis rotation).
BTW if JNK and HYG scream out of the blocks in the first week of January we will be lightening up in that area and starting to look at Treasuries.
ReplyDeleteHYG 90.08
ReplyDeleteI think the details of the wager were:
below 88.50 - panties on, above 90.00 - panties off.
Anyway the lady is a bit busy with the pumping right now.
"(beta to divis rotation)"
ReplyDeleteoh wait... don't forget about all that CASH ON THE SIDELINES...
Contrarian indicator #375:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/bond-investors-take-8-62-billion-out-of-funds-in-week-most-in-two-years.html
GARY of the Big Ass Pension Fund never ever gets it right in bonds...
So I guess now when Obama does his Presidential Library, they'll be 3 books on the shelf...
ReplyDeleteThe 2 he wrote before he got elected...
and all his "landmark" accomplishments (like the repeal of "Don't ask... Don't tell"...
Somebody tell me?
Does this mean that there now will be gay and lesbian PRIDE parades on the parade grounds of all the military bases?
That's about as "landmark" as it gets I suppose...
lol 3:14
ReplyDeleteNo, I bet nothing.. only that the price would drop.
ReplyDeleteO is a reit that issued new shares in december for proceeds of about 205 million.. i think that is how they were able to raise their monthly cash dividend to $0.14425 per share from $0.1439375 per share. LOL! The new monthly dividend amount represents an annualized dividend amount of $1.731 per share as compared to the previous annualized dividend amount of $1.72725 per share.
"The net proceeds from the offering will be used to pay off borrowings under the Company's acquisition credit facility, which were used to fund recent property acquisitions. The remaining net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes and working capital, which may include additional acquisitions."
"No, I bet nothing.. only that the price would drop."
ReplyDeleteWe know that... but we are in the entertainment business as well as asset management.
Are you sure it was only the price that would drop...?
We like this idea of the market reaching its high in the first week of January. Lots of toppiness here, the Street will blow smoke up everyone's arse through the end of the year, suck in the MuFu money and then bring the hammer down. Use China/Europe as an excuse.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/details-citifx-contrary-call-watershed-bear-market-2011
I never knew that markets had topped on Jan 3rd so many times !!
ReplyDeleteand, actually, the set up changed on HYG.. just as it did for the SPX.. but the set up may change again..
ReplyDeleteJNK and HYG usually move together.. JNK is putting in a confirming bearish candle today.. something to keep an eye on, anyway..
to couple with that dividend article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-19/stock-buybacks-surge-as-companies-borrow-cheaper-debt-for-share-purchases.html
key quotes:
“The markets are almost calling for them to do it.”
"The level of debt outstanding among American companies outside the financial industry increased 1 percent between April and the end of June to an all-time high of $7.26 trillion, a second quarterly advance, according to Federal Reserve data released on Sept. 17."
spy should have its second close over 125.. 3 is gonna bring the money in off the side lines, lol.
ReplyDeletewell, rates are not as low as they were in Sept/October now! $tnx went from sub 24 to 35+.. currently 33.46
ReplyDeletewe will see what the new year brings.. 2s or 4s
I am so bearish equities for Q1, but that's not our immediate focus.
ReplyDeleteWe are going to deploy the widowmaker for now, in case China pulls a fast one and announces a sneaky hike, or Paulson bails and his investors get a lump of coal, or in case Einhorn decides to liquidate, so he can buy a massive rock for one of his fans....
Because of our size, we will only deploy half of the widowmaker today.... we don't want to scare the horses.
ReplyDeleteWe expect to see higher rates early in the New Year, mu fu money will go into spread product and not into Ts.
I'm telling you guys right now there aren't many (any?) retailers buying t's, I talked to some other reps this week
ReplyDeletemunis sure, but treasuries were mentioned along with bubonic plague and Rick James.
there is nothing bullish about the TLT chart..
ReplyDeleteI put some of my investors in bubonic plague....
ReplyDeleteBut then I am exceptional, as you know.
spy volume for the week might set an all-time low for 5 full days of trading.
ReplyDeleteThe only bullish thing about TLT is Greece, Ireland, and munis.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, housing and deflation.
It's like JPY and JGBs. People go there when TSHTF.
gld dropped below 135 if anyone cares. could even maybe possibly by chance close below that level.
ReplyDeletethe citi call thing up there is interesting but it's tendency stuff and not rules to follow like the Stock Traders Almanac stuff such as sell in may and go away or as January goes so goes the market, both of those got you pantsed in 2009, and so sometimes that works really well, sometimes you leave a lot on the table as a result of following it.
ReplyDeleteSomeone please explain BKX...
ReplyDeleteWe quietly engaged half of the widowmaker trade. If there is another quiet morning tomorrow we will deploy the other half then.
ReplyDeleteGoldfinger is either asleep or he has quietly slipped out of the building - Einhorn and Paulson were waiting in the getaway car - leaving Zero Hedgers holding small slips of paper marked "GLD", which can apparently be redeemed for gold cubes of bouillon. There was a small misunderstanding and it isn't actually backed by bullion after all...
I think I saw a guy ride the Widowmaker for 8 seconds once. Then it threw him off and stomped his little sump pump....
ReplyDelete...Better be extra careful...
call buying in xlf?
ReplyDeletethe banks in cahoots with the fed?
interest rate spreads?
mark to make believe forever?
Gotta go...
ReplyDeleteRemember... CV's College Bowl picks posted HERE
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010_12_12_archive.html
Tonight I'm taking the BOISE STATE BRONCOS for 1 unit... (I think that line has moved to 16.5 - I'll have to check)...
Karen
ReplyDeleteBonuses. Probably the last one in a LONG time.
mark to make believe forever?
ReplyDeleteExtend and Pretend, Baby !!
B in T: 8 seconds is about the average lifetime for our rides on the Widowmaker this year, although the last one ran for about three days last week before we covered. Remember, we are always right, but we are always early....
Tough to award bonuses next year if equities, commodities and fixed income suck, which is possible.... the FX boys and girls will rule !!
ReplyDeleteOur Special Situations Fund will have to be expanded next year. We would have been better off without it in 2010, especially the first half.
There has been a pervasive feeling in NYC in 2009 and 2010 that you had better get yours quickly before they close down parts of the casino.
Shocked, shocked, to find out there has been gambling going on !
Please be sending MY bonus also !! In dollars.
ReplyDeleteLuke Perry
ReplyDeletethat's a sad movie....8 seconds.
The market was like watching paint dry today, or watching someone watch paint dry....
ReplyDeleteYou lot were pretty entertaining though.
sideburns
ReplyDeletebrian austin greene, total pimp
alright, I'm losing it over here
I took a drive by the mall close to our office today, absolute madhouse, it was bumper to bumper and the entire parking lot looked full.
ReplyDeletelater all! i have people to see and places to go.. i'm sure you too wish you could attend my HOA meeting this afternoon.. conveniently located across the street.
ReplyDelete