AHOY!... CV!
(says "Sailor Moon")
& friends (I guess)...
AHO(Y)?... Let CV put his deductive skills to the test here...
(I'll enlist the help of my old friend Vanna)...
Vanna says...
Alright... Thanks a lot VW (Mrs. "Peoples Car")... I'll just go back to my sweetie Britney... "What's on your mind dear?"... Britney says... (A)HOY = "Another HIGH OF YEAR", on the S&P (2010)... And begs...
Do you want a piece of me?
I'm Mrs. Lifestyles of the famous
(You want a piece of me)
I'm Mrs. OMG that Britney's Shameless
(You want a piece of me)
I'm Mrs. Extra! Extra! This just in!
(You want a piece of me)
I'm Mrs. "she's to big - now she's too thin"
(You want a piece of me)
I'm Mrs. 'You want a piece of me?'
It's kinda pissin me off
Well get in line with the pa-pa-razzi
Who's flippin me off
Hopin' I'll resort to some havoc
& End up settlin' in court
Now are sure you want a piece of me?
(You want a piece of me)
I'm Mrs. 'Most likely to get on the TV for strippin' on the streets'
When gettin groceries, now, FOR REAL...
Are you kidding me?
No wonder there's panic in the industry
I mean... PLEASE...
Do you want a piece of me?
I'm Mrs. AMERICAN DREAM since I was 17
Me ME ME ME...
You want a piece of me?...
Britney... Baby... Thank You for the offer... I'll be the first one to admit... You're cute and sexy as hell (and hard to turn down)... But despite your "thrill"... I just want to "work hard"... I can't pay your price to roll the dice... I WON'T STOP BELIEVIN' that I'm right about this (even IF my hairstyle was once an old 80's style... my VOICE & MY ANTHEM STILL ROCKS - & it SHALL... THROUGHOUT THE AGES)!...
Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Paying anything to roll the dice
Just one more time...
Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues...
Oh the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on and on...
what kind of chart is this?
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DDMX
AAIP
Andy;
ReplyDeleteThe Epstein video on last night's thread was excellent.
Andy;
ReplyDeleteThe Epstein video on last night's thread was excellent.
x2
~~
Epstein is a lucid cat. He's correct, it need not be complicated, and ~" it ain't the Rates, it's the Rules."
AAIP
@AAIP (7:27)
ReplyDeleteLooks M&A related...
http://www.stockhouse.com/News/USReleasesDetail.aspx?n=7979493
as opposed to CV's thread (which is T&A related)...
ReplyDeleteCV decided to chop TA (technical analysis) into 2 pieces "T" & "A" this morning...
ReplyDeleteSort of a "spinoff"... :-)
CV:
ReplyDeleteWe all hereby agree you are the master of T and A. Now, about those catfood futures:
http://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/21608.aspx
Nearly half of all elderly Americans will experience poverty
"Rank found that although 32.7 percent of white older Americans will experience at least one year below the official poverty line, the corresponding percentage for black older Americans was double that at 64.6 percent.
In addition, for unmarried older Americans, the percentage experiencing poverty was 51.2 percent compared with 24.9 percent for married older Americans. Likewise, for those with fewer than 12 years of education, the percentage experiencing poverty was 48.4 percent compared with 20.5 percent for those with 12 or more years of education."
...My only hope is that Bernanke is one of these. Yessir. ZIRP is an attack on the elderly, as it exacerbates the very thing this bubba is researching...
morning!! gld:uup still in play.. fxe still trend down.. and fxa not looking so strong after all..
ReplyDeleteWhat's up squad, running a little late today, got stuck at home reading something, but funny enough I just got in and here's the first e-mail I read:
ReplyDeleteBen,
I know how you feel about this but I have to ask, I caught a bit of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money while on the tread mill last night and he was advising on getting out of the stumbling bond market and investing in high quality dividend stocks. Since we are own some bonds is there any reason to change?
This guy is one of my favorite clients, I'm going to enjoy responding to this one.
anyway, bonds are in freefall guys...run for the hills.....lol
Ben! You are smarter than you look!!!
ReplyDelete...you mentioned several days ago about your concerns regarding PTTAX..down 5.25% yesterday...
...Keep posting and educating me. thanks.
...these interest rate fluctuations are still fascinating to watch.
bac gap up..
ReplyDeleteCV, get this: zerohedge
ReplyDeleteRumor Fitch received memo from Treasury to upgrade Italy to AAAA. Fitch last seen buying vowels
'Jim Cramer'--more proof of the Power of Television..
ReplyDeletewhata Tool..
AAIP
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteif you recall, I sold nearly 10 million out of PTTAX over a month ago
am I buying back now
um, yes.....
@AAIP (9:57)
ReplyDeleteHe's only a T _ _ L (because he didn't buy any vowels)...
You, on the other hand, are a _ _ _ P (until you pony up)...
Maybe you can make some scratch on Indy tonight...
Bruce,
ReplyDeletenot sure if you caught it but karen posted some of leftbacks' fixed income thoughts, this isn't the end of the world for bonds was one of his points.
I don't know that this is THE low yet for bonds, I don't think that it is, remember we got worried here because about a month/month and half ago sentiment on bonds reached a fever pitch, DSI was showing over 96% bulls on the long bond, so we like bonds, but that's like a big air horn in your face screaming to take something off, when sentiment gets that trumped up it can take a while for the correction to run but I can't just swing 40-50 million in and out in a day, I have to pick my spots and build the position, I've done this over and over with PTTAX for a while now, same with BND, only difference for me is this time around I will not be buying TLT, that is off my list at this stage.
I hate contract rolls...
ReplyDeleteProbably be sitting around just waiting for the vol to come over to the Mar contract most of the day.
Technical Question for AT:
AT, do you start new charts on a contract roll, or do you leave your work saved on your old charts?
personally.. i look at that PTTAX chart and see 9s in the future.
ReplyDeleteCurrent low TICK reading -666
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'...
fiatcurrency
ReplyDeleteIRISH OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY WILL VOTE AGAINST IMF/EU BAILOUT PACKAGE IN PARLIAMENT-SPOKESWOMAN EUR gets hammerd on this
now we just need China to tighten..
ReplyDeletetbt.. moving up..
ReplyDeletegld moving down
uup moving up..
equates to market weakness..
oh yes, these are normal times:
ReplyDeletecashin says the two-day selloff in treasuries (Tues,Wed) was second largest in 50 years
JBTFD
C chart is absurd..
ReplyDeletefiatcurrency
ReplyDelete*PORTUGUESE STATE-OWNED COMPANIES MUST CUT OVERALL PAY BY 5%
Bruce,
ReplyDeletealso, I wanted to mention to you on PTTAX, don't look at that like it "lost" that much yesterday, it has been down recently a pretty fair amount but it was down 5% yesterday really....
remember what this time of year is with mutual funds that have made gains
it's distribution time baby, we only have estimates from our contacts at PIMCO but they sent out an e-mail yesterday and we are looking at .53 of that move yesterday was long and short term cap gains.
I'll get calls all day about this, it happens every year whenever a fund we own pays out cap gains, remember when a MF pays out gains like this it drops the funds NAV:
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/032604.asp
sorry to even mention this but UUP has a nice cup and handle on the 3 month daily chart..
ReplyDeletehere's another sheet:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pimco-funds.com/cap_gains_reports/PIMCO%20Funds%20Cap%20Gain%20Estimates%202010.pdf
CV,
ReplyDeletew:You, on the other hand, are a _ _ _ P (until you pony up)...
pony up? for? ??
AAIP
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI never chart PTTAX or any mutual fund for that matter, I've seen Bill Gross turn over his entire portfolio many times, it's pretty heavy in that fund, and whats more he will leverage the fund like he is right now with all kinds of treasury futures, sometimes he's just got a mountain of cash, he's one of the most active mutual fund managers out there.
you just can't look at the past chart and know anything about the future of that fund as a result of what he's doing in there.
@AAIP
ReplyDeletefor the "vowels" :-)
I can't believe Vanna did playboy
ReplyDeleteCV, you only read the articles right?
ben.. fascinating correlation with PTTAX and gold.. i'll e you the chart real quick..
ReplyDeleteMackieFear,
ReplyDeleteIIRC, "Playboy" bought those snaps, of White, that she did while she was 'slingin' Hash', b4 'she Made it'...
def. pre-Wheel.
~~
cv,
thanks for the clarify, totally, did not see that one..
AAIP
Day Trading Still Alive.. Outsourced to China
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/business/global/10daytrade.html?_r=2&ref=business
I'd buy hash from Vanna...
ReplyDeleteIts getting to be about everyone's favorite fun time...
BTD.
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteOf course... If you wanted a "discount" (on buying those vowels), you could always switch to
M _ H
That would represent a cost savings... Or just go the "cheapskate" route (like CV & MCF) and ger the whole thing done without having to spend a dime!
or... 2 nicklels (in CV's world)...
@I-Man (10:54)
ReplyDeleteBT(F)D...
There... fixed it!
how about this from KD.. TBTF - Trust Ben To Fund..
ReplyDeleteis that perfect, or what?!
Janet Tavakoli talked about the federal government’s role in regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. She also responded to telephone calls and electronic communications.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/FannieMaean
karen,
ReplyDeleteisn't that something.....I would have never even thought to overlap them, I'm not even sure what to think about that
on another note, I mentioned to the I last night some of the new moon full moon dates have been worth keeping an eye on lately as solid secondary indicators, the lunar would have led some prettay profitable trading From Jan-april and from the august new moon until now, most recent new moon tops were 11/6 and again on 12/5
your tax dollars hard at work
ReplyDeleteso folks, not to get into all the ins and outs of this situation but I have this new client that has been trying to refi his mortgage for about 2 something months at this point. i wish I could share all the hilarious and insane details but here's the deal, client is looking to refit roughly 200k on a property that was just appraised at 565k.
The most recent thing that happened was they told him that in order to finalize the loan they needed to pay off the balance on their Discover card which at the time was about 1,200 as they use this card for monthly expenses, this was early november, so my client paid it all and sent to them the 0 balance. But no, that couldn't work you see because what he sent them didn't have the full discover card number on it (why, well because in that new credit card law nobody gets a CC statement anymore with the entire account number on it) so they said nope, we see 0 but we need the full account number....phone calls to discover blah blah blah, then we are told we are good.....the client proceeds to use the Discover card again, perhaps they shouldn't have but the balance on the card.....$129.62.
Now this e-mail
Hi Ben, still playing games with this loan. They call me today and said they had to have a bank statement that shows the discover payments, that this was another Gov requirement for Fannie Mae. I had to show that I didn't get a loan to pay off Discover, this is like a script from Saturday Night Live.
So yeah, you read that right, what happened was they told him again, you need to bring that to 0, the $129 balance, which he did, now they tell him they need to make sure he didn't need a $129 dollar loan to pay it, that he paid cash
Like I said at the start, they are about to extend him 200k for the mortgage note
Ahab, thoughts?
http://www.businessinsider.com/house-democrats-just-voted-to-reject-the-tax-deal-2010-12
ReplyDeleteoh, let the chorus of headlines attributing every market tick to that begin Karen.
ReplyDeletethere is a 60 min h&s on gld.. i'm watching for yesterday's low to be taken out..
ReplyDeleteben -
ReplyDeletefrom k's link
"Markets are mixed and haven't moved much on the news."
@karen (11:18)
ReplyDeleteSo I suppose that's the beginning of it... The first volley...
Buckle up for two years of non-stop fighting across the aisle...
By 2012... Everyone will wish for the "good ol days" of 2008-2010 when the politburo & central committee were running the show...
@Andy T
ReplyDeleteHey Andy... I bet the Christmas tree your wife brought home doesn't do this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCjHV63MQ4w
xrt having trouble getting over 48..
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteso, you didn't buy all the gridlock will be good for markets nonsense
saw lots of fancy charts that "proved it"
http://specials.msn.com/A-List/TV/Oprah-addresses-lesbian-rumors.aspx?cp-documentid=26671057
ReplyDelete"Talk-show host Oprah Winfrey (photos) addressed lesbian rumors during a Barbara Walters special airing Thursday. While choking up as she talked about her friend Gayle King (photos), she said, "I'm not a lesbian ... I'm not even kind of a lesbian."
---
Yeah... She's just a hippo... Whew! I'm glad we straightened all that out!
Babs & Oprah... Just the type of HARD HITTING journalists that Obama must face in order to live up to his "transparent government" agenda...
TRIN
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/arms-index-extremely-overbought/
zerohedge had an article on TRIN today too...maybe the same one. How do you think BR feels knowing he's copying ZH?
ReplyDeleteOprah's persona could likely be torn apart in the next wave of negative social mood, she escaped it in 2008....
ReplyDeleteoddly enough her final season kicked off this year, you can see when her show started and we all know the story from there, Oprah is a bull market persona, I'm sure you've all seen the absolute insanity in that studio on those shows where she does the gifts to the audience, the people just go crazy
I didn't BTD...and I'm sitting pretty.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I changed my mind. That dip is calling my name.
ReplyDeleteI did earlier and got burned a little.
ReplyDeleteIts coming tho...
Does voting against the tax cut include the provision for extending UI?
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDelete"Oprah is a bull market persona"
CV is going to stop referring to any rallies as a "bull market", and start calling it a "hippo market"
"Does voting against the tax cut include the provision for extending UI?"
ReplyDelete---
Their idea is probably to take all the extra revenues from going against the tax cut and use them to extend UI... forever...
Oh... & they'll leave a little aside to:
- vote themselves pay raises
- fund a new government program to determine where we might need some more czars
- Appoint a czar for that post
- and buy a studio full of presents for Oprah's next audience (when Obama comes on)...
@karen
ReplyDeleteLULU... UFB!
LULU is the new NFLX
This is funny:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-09/dean-foods-chief-engels-loses-59-as-s-p-s-worst-after-milk-takeovers-sour.html
About 10 nanoseconds after Bloomy put this piece up, DF stock jumped 8% as a debt rollover triggered a monster short squeeze in the name.
Which we have been long since it did the "Falling Knife" thing a few weeks ago..... sometimes this market is fun.
I will be back to comment on the auction, but I like the China tightening play - I think Voldemort might fancy selling some gold and buying some Treasuries here and market players should be aware of that possibility.
ReplyDeleteCV.. yeah.. lulu.. been watching it : )
ReplyDeleteLB, saw the DF thing first thing this morning.. hope you are break even now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-09/morgan-stanley-said-to-expect-investment-bank-bonuses-to-decline-up-to-30-.html
ReplyDeleteI guess that 5.5% TNX call (an entry for All-Star Fixed Income Tool Time) did cost them a few pennies after all. Now if they had only listened to LB, we could all be buying penthouses in Trump SoHo...
"Lefty, Gorman on line 2. John Mack on line 3..."
Well ahead of break-even, thanks to bottom nibbling....
ReplyDeletenot sure if this site is familiar to any of you... i think it is new to me:
ReplyDeletehttp://sevensentinels.com/issue/4th-quarter-2010/article/december-8-analysis1
Ben, thanks for your thoughts...I've been tied up in the mine this morning...
ReplyDeleteDF 4001 shares - P/L is at +8.39%
ReplyDeleteLB only buys 1 share when the knife starts falling, then we watch it for a bit until people have lost some fingertips before we pile in on down days.
CIEN said today that $NFLX is consuming 20% of all internet bandwidth at peak times with its streaming.
ReplyDeletecien is the new lulu !!
yoku.. we shoulda bot the dip.. up over 10 pts from yesterday..
ReplyDeletetheory in progress: if gld doesn't rise every day, speculators will get bored with it..
ReplyDeleteLB wonders whether Voldemort would like to cause intestinal discomfort among the specs here by upending the apple cart for metals/miners..?
ReplyDeleteAnyone know why NZT is down?
Nancy’s Last Stand
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 9, 2010 at 17:32 GMT
Very interesting politicking going on up on Capitol Hill today as outgoing speaker Nancy Pelosi defies here president by refusing to bring the tax cut deal to a vote unless changes are made.
Democrats are livid that Obama approved a deal to extend the tax cuts on high earners and are unhappy that the estate tax rate was lowered to 35% from the scheduled rise to 55%.
Republicans acquiesced to a 55 week extension to unemployment benefits (to a total of 154 weeks). Benefits typically run for 26 weeks under normal economic circumstances, to put things in perspective. As well, the deal includes a temporary cut to the payroll tax.
The clock is ticking…Will the outgoing speaker single-handedly force a huge tax hike on all Americans in a fit of pique? In the end, I doubt it. But the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is sweating a bit this afternoon, no doubt.
All Eyes On 30-Year Auction
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || December 9, 2010 at 17:56 GMT
The results are due just after 1 pm New York time. The 10-auction average of the bid-to-cover ratio is 2.66 times ($2.66 i bids for every bond auctioned).
With yields racing higher we could see one of two results. Traders may be spooked and avoid the auction or traders may look to take advantage of the big rise in yileds in recent day and dive in head first…
A weak 3-year auction led to dollar strength earlier this week, so I guess a weak auction would lead to USD strength today…but don’t quote me…
There has been buying of 1-month T bills this week, but not 3-month bills. That suggests some people are expecting a New Year correction that will be short-lived b/c of JBTFD.
ReplyDeleteThe big question is whether Voldemort is going to buy any of the cattle at this auction or whether he will stay home this time.
ReplyDeleteJobless rate among college grads up to 5.1 percent, highest since at least 1992. They had been doing far better than less educated workers.
ReplyDeleteA few oddities in the jobs report -- why did retailers cut 28,100 jobs if holiday sales started strong? Will they hire in December?
All you birth-death model fans (OK, may be that's just me) Labor Dept says they'll review it quarterly, not annually http://reut.rs/hsGk53
http://blogs.reuters.com/emily-kaiser/
Bid/Cover 2.74
ReplyDeleteTotal Amount $13 B
Yield Awarded 4.410%
BTC was low, but somebody was anxious to grab that 4.4% yield...
Wonder who?
Back with more analysis later. Have to run!
ben, for you:
ReplyDelete$$ Fed Z1 Report
Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD) = $52.281T. This is deflationary since Q4 2008 at $52.435T.
The two largest segments of TCMD are Household and Financial. They have both contracted for 7 straight quarters, shedding/defaulting/writing off a combined $3.1T in debt in the process.
The Federal Government is now the 3rd largest debtor, having increased its debt by $2.7T in the last 7 quarters in an effort to offset the deflationary forces from the contracting Household and Financial sectors.
Since Q4 2005, Federal Government debt has nearly doubled ($4.7T to S9.0T).
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/12/fed-z1-report.html
aig had a 15% short position.. i don't know if that explains today or not..
ReplyDeletethe megaphone in $vix over last two months is something to see.
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeleteyeah, deflation, zombie bears, pomo, etc......
thanks for sharing that though, for real :-)
great ebay story.. and i have an accutron to auction!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/navy-man-auctions-his-watch/
In fact, the 30y auction was much stronger than the prior two offerings, with BTC higher and a yield awarded that was below the yield at which 30y were trading immediately before 1pm. You can see how strong the long end is after the successful auction.
ReplyDeleteSo now the focus shifts to China's inflation data, with PPI currently running at 565%, and whether a little bit of tightening might be in order.
Charts and China both suggest caution in the commodity complex, and there might just be a tasty shorting opportunity developing here?
mrtopstep
ReplyDeleteNew Video: DEC to MAR S&P Futures Contract Roll - How It's Being Done http://mrtopstep.com/?p=1574
AGG, LQD and MUB have all bounced a bit today. HYG and TIP are flat. TLT obviously the leader in bond ETFs today. The upcoming US PPI on Tuesday presents the next speed bump for fixed income, so some caution is still warranted for the time being.
ReplyDeletei guess my accutron isn't worth much : (
ReplyDeleteshouldn't there be a law about this?
ReplyDeleteNYTimesDealBook, Ex-White House Budget Director Joins Citigroup
http://nyti.ms/fFEQaI
oh man, I just got into it big time with a DelDot worker on my way to subway
ReplyDeleteclassic
The squeeze in DF today has brought a smile to LB's portfolio.
ReplyDeleteWho knew single stocks could actually be profitable.... :-)
We should probably get back to macro now...
k -
ReplyDeleteno little truth to the tag at the end of the e-bay auction story
"In the end, this story contains a very important moral: Always -- without exception -- prevent your parents, grandparents, or great aunts from operating an eBay account without your supervision."
one winter day when my gran was in her dotage, she hired a guy to clean all the junk out of her basement. we discoverd months later that the guy had only charged her a couple of hundred to haul away all my grandfather's lifetime collection of antique carpentry tools and muzzle loaders. by then she couldn't remember who it was she had hired.
sad/bad story, bat!!
ReplyDeleteThe struggle to keep the market from imploding is fascinating.
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteDelDot?
Delware Department of Transportation worker
ReplyDeletefat ass was blabbing away while I waited for her to rotate on her fat ass(xis) around to me, then she started yelling for me to keep going to the point I could hear her through the windows so I parked my car in the middle of the road and had some, uh, words for her
there were various four letter words and as I was getting back into my car I think she was picking her jaw up off the ground
sometimes I just get tired of the GIB
This was launched yesterday... interesting timing...??? A 2 x inverse gold miner ETF... hmm....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DUST:US
I didn't know Tim was in the hospital!
ReplyDeletemrtopstep - TOP NOTCH is doing much better. Tim feels as though he could be out of the hospital now, but he must wait until tomorrow & returns Monday.
Nothing grows straight to the sky....
ReplyDeletenothing goes up every day....
not even gold...
oh, this is why XRT has been so stellar:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingwire.com/2010/12/09/consumer-spending-to-spur-us-economy-in-2011-wells-fargo
what's wrong with him?
ReplyDeleteSo...which way is this triangle going to break?
ReplyDeleteI gotta go out for awhile...
ReplyDelete(been missing most of the day anyway)...
I like INDY tonight (but so does 88% of the public - so I guess it's only a 1 unit play for me)...
GIB - Take Indy because they have Peyton Manning, and the Flaming Thumbtacks can't play football anymore...
EASY $$ right?
I just hope the Flaming Thumbtacks don't break out those god awful "robin egg blue" uniforms... If I were Vince Young and had to wear that outfit, I'd throw it into the stands too!
ben! i don't know!
ReplyDeletezerohedge - Strength in BofA being attributed to WSJ "break up value" article http://is.gd/isp7x which is just rehash of Dick Bove's wrong opinion
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
And, I'd like to thank everyone who did their part to keep the BTD trade green for me while I was out lunching with the neighbor ladies. Very nice.
ReplyDeleteInteresting.. BloombergNow
ReplyDeleteMore Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished http://ow.ly/3mBMO
I'm in that "more than half..." and I'm never in the majority of anything...
ReplyDeletegld:uup H&S still in play.. this weekend's china news will definitely tip the cards or cart as the case may be..
ReplyDeletealaidi - Chinese tightening practically a done deal fri or wkend. 70% likely to be rate hile 30% likly reserv rqrmt hike
i gotta run at the close as well..
ReplyDeleteI'm in the more than half though and come firmly down on the side of Abolished!
ReplyDeleteas for BAC
lol, I'm not commenting on that garbage dump...
china tightening might even happen overnight....
ReplyDeleteinteresting that JOHN E thinks metals can't go down now
aapl still working on its domed house.. rolling my eyes.. everyone and their cousin will be buying that dip!
ReplyDeleteleftback,
ReplyDeleteI really do wish you could have spent the last three days in the office with me, you'd have gotten one hell of an ab workout laughing about the comments coming through here on fixed income
lulu squeeze was something else.. short interest had been near 20% before earnings.. volume over 8 times normal..
ReplyDeleteEURJPY is down. SPX is up.
ReplyDeleteThose divergences usually correct. You could be forgiven for putting a hedge or two on here. We haven't had a decent dump in a long time.
McF: I guess your colleagues don't have the "bond gene"...
looks like yet another new closing high for the spx..
ReplyDeleteeh, it's only the beedoo guy ini the office that is lacking the fixed income gene, he's lacking lots of genes though
ReplyDeleteit's more just clients or some of the new referrals I've gotten
these are the times when I feel bad for the regular Joe, I think Joe is about to get smoked at every angle but all they know is they've been told now for a few months that bonds are a bubble and "the bond market" is
baaaaaad
even real basic things like seeing the amazement when you explain the bond market is larger than the stock market...the looks on the faces it's as if you just told them the world is not flat,
one guy literally says to me Tuesday afternoon:
"no-way"
in my head I'm thinking
Equities in Dallas!!!!!
mrtopstep
ReplyDeletechatter = imbal $300M to buy Use stops!!!
Karen
ReplyDeleteHas the SPY traded 100MM yet? New highs on lower volume. Go figure.
Just dropped a very big block of SPY.
ReplyDeleteWe were up 4%, whaddya gonna do?
ReplyDeleteBen -- as I was readyi8ng your 3:49 I was thinking "Equities in Dallas!!!" and then I got to the bottom of your post. Ha!
ReplyDeletewasn't there a 250 to buy impal yesterday or day before
ReplyDeletewho's the big buyers coming in at the close so desparate to hold over night?
wait....don't answer that
hmmm...that was supposed to be "reading" ...darn wireless keyboard.
ReplyDeleteAlgo test...
ReplyDeleteCHINA WILL HIKE OVERNIGHT. AMOUNT OF MOVE UNKNOWN. ALSO CHINA LOOKING TO REDUCE TREASURY EXPOSURE.
Jennifer,
ReplyDeletewhat's that thing they say about great minds?
:-)
AGG has finally stopped falling.....
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletebtw, sweet trade on the DF man
wonder if you get a store coupon as a shareholder
I used to own some clorox a while back, thought it was funny they give you coupons for bleach with the annual shareholder report.
At this point in life, I'd be thrilled with equities in Dallas. I'm pretty happy with equities in my home office in my pjs too.
ReplyDeleteJust for once, I'd like the wedge to break DOWN. Hasn't really happened for me since May. But, I remain optimistic.
ReplyDeletewell, Fusion has a big office in Dallas....
ReplyDeleteand they have that cool stadium
though, from what I understand, the place to be in Texas if you aren't at Bush's ranch is Austin.
And the person with the real job in the family earns his $ in IL.
ReplyDelete"a very big block" you want to quantify that?
ReplyDeleteI think I learned today that I dont trade roll days.
ReplyDeleteWhat an ugly mess of a tape.
Spent my whole day dicking around waiting for that stupid rip, and catching it wasnt worth the trouble really, but still, nice to catch.
ok, i admit.. i don't get the 'equities in dallas' joke..
ReplyDeleteColin mentioned that move in REITS yesterday
ReplyDeleteI just saw on our company home page that several of those private REITS put out proxies
I've got some reading to do, might be some gems in there.
Shoulda gone fishing...
ReplyDeleteLiar's Poker. -- its the worst job that no one in the entering class wants.
ReplyDeletere: equities in dallas
ReplyDeleteLiar's Poker
Michael Lewis
it's a fun book if you've never read it could probably find it on AMZN for a couple bucks...or however many nickels
i have that book.. guess i never read it.. thanks for cluing me in..
ReplyDeleteeh....sit down with that if you have some down time next few weeks, you could read it in a day or two, I plan on reading The Big Short during the holiday and I just got that David Einhorn book as well so I'm looking forward to that.
ReplyDeleteLP is a fun book, he's a good writer
you get of great mental visuals while reading it, especially the descriptions of the eating that was going on with the mortgage guys on the trading floor, or at least I did anyway
"a very big block" you want to quantify that?
ReplyDelete5% of my portfolio, so now I am only 5% SPY and 15% divvys.
LB also added some hedges for the first time in a long time.
As of tonight we are 20% long and about 10% short equities/metals.
10% TIP now, and 22% HYG.
Had shares in a private CNL healthcare REIT once. Got bought by HCP at a 100% premium less than 2 years after we bought the shares. Guy who recommended it originally wanted to rollover the $ into a CRE reit. I said NO...and that was before my great awakening. Happy not to be tied up in anything like that.
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletedid you read the hendry letter?
would be interested on your thoughts about his Japanese investment thesis, which I found very interesting.
We are in "market can never go down" mode today, and I just love to sell those days.... sold a modest amount of my DF into the close as well.
ReplyDeleteYours, JOHN E....
CNL.....I had a run-in with a guy there in late 2007, he's been trying to call me back ever, Vern something.
ReplyDeletehe came in spouting about the great position of the re markets blah blah in 2007, i told him that I thought re would blow up and I wasn't much interested in an illiquid private reit which made him very angry and he responded by telling me that perhaps I shouldn't be running money then
I kindly told him to get the hell out of my office then
he started calling back in mid 2009, the first message he left started
Hi ben this is blah blah, I think we may have spoken before
as if he doesn't remember....
LB.. you are so full of it.. if you really bot one share of DF you paid more in commission than the stock was worth.. you know how literal I am..
ReplyDeleteanyway, i'm leaving.
Japan:
ReplyDeleteOne school of thought here says get long the Nikkei, b/c the yen will dive and stocks will experience an (hyper)inflationary expansion, and then hedge by shorting the JPY.
Another school of thought says that a rapid rise in JGB yields would destroy all Japanese life forms and leave Tokyo as a smoldering crater.
LB thought Japan was a good buy a month ago, didn't pull the trigger and missed the move, and is now expecting a pullback on a China tightening.
I do like Japanese equities and would buy in the New Year on a big dump. Lots of companies trade at near book. I have a good history with Japan, since getting long in 2002-2003, into the recent crisis.
LB is up about 12.5% on DF to date after today's action.
ReplyDeleteI did buy one share, I do that sometimes and just watch.
Your observation is of course correct.
honestly I'm still trying to wrap my head around some of hendry's comments in that letter regarding Japan, need to read it again
ReplyDeleteInteresting story, how often does the ECB access the swap lines?
ReplyDelete"Forex swaps with ECB total $60 million: New York Fed"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B864Z20101209
Central bank liquidity swaps
ReplyDeleteBecause of the global nature of bank funding markets, the Federal Reserve has at times coordinated with other central banks to provide liquidity. During the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve entered into agreements to establish temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (central bank liquidity swap lines) with a number of foreign central banks. Two types of temporary swap lines were established: dollar liquidity lines and foreign-currency liquidity lines. These temporary arrangements expired on February 1, 2010. In May 2010, temporary dollar liquidity swap lines were re-established with some central banks, in response to the re-emergence of strains in short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.
The Federal Reserve operates these swap lines under the authority of section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act and in compliance with authorizations, policies, and procedures established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm
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