I'll bet you all didn't know that "Ben" was THE THING... In any case, if you get that issue, you can meet ALL HIS BABES!... I'm guessing Meredith Whitney isn't on that list tho...
Mysterious & Spooky... Altogether Ooky THINGS
By the way... Little do you all know that CV was actually the "actor" who played THING in the Addams Family (got my SAG card to prove it)... I'm always the "guy behind the guy behind the guy" (and that's why I'm the opposite of Obama, who is always the guy "in front of the guy in front of the guy")... See how it works? I can explain a lot of cshet in a few simple sentences...
Anyway, past that, & in a whole class by itself, there are "SURE THINGS"... We like those! Especially when Nicolette Sheridan is involved...
We've "sort of" come to know the following as "one of" those SURE THINGS (until it's not), but graciously, Goldman Sachs is out there doing God's work again and
Goldman Advises Clients To Front Run The Fed Via POMO
Even Betty White is sick of this...
Allegedly, it'll all happen in accordance with this calendar...
So there you have it... It's that simple... Just follow the easy plan, and then WASH, RINSE, & REPEAT (enjoying the "agitation", and "spin" cycles on your journey)... Rejoice in the knowledge that, with the help of the Fed & Goldman, that all your trades will be "ILLER" than the others...
In other "calendar" news...
2012 Apocalypse -- Postponed
Good news -- the Mayan calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012.
I'll admit that I haven't perused the article yet, but I'm guessing that Bernanke has figured out some kind of monetary policy level to pull & thereby stave off the end point of the Mayan calendar...
I'll do some reasearch over the weekend, and by Monday morning, I'll have parsed the "Goldman Trade" on the issue... I'm guessing it'll have something to do with all the
cv -
ReplyDeletehere's your chance to leave another trail on the web to be dredged up years later. submit your creds to wikipedia and imdb to gain instant worldwide "thing" recognition :^}
"Thing, the disembodied hand/arm limb, was usually played by Ted Cassidy. When Lurch had to be on camera at the same time as Thing, however, associate producer Jack Voglin lent his hand. A third actor also played Thing on occasion, but his identity is not known."
as to other things, thanx for the cash on hand chart. have wanted a good source to illustrate this point to those who go on about "cash on hand" but esp. the amount of reserves the banks are sitting on that in no way approach offsetting their vast liabilities (not even including off-balance sheet siv-type sh*t)
@72bat
ReplyDeleteI was JUST KIDDING about being "The Thing" (to make a joke)...
I AM Betty White though! :-)
(or - somedays I feel like I'm TRADING like Betty White)...
Thanks to "our ben"...
ReplyDeleteNOT those OTHER ben's for finding that chart on 'cash on hand"...
@72bat
ReplyDeleteTo complete the cycle...
There are also "MISS THING's"... But they are authors on other blogs...
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=miss+thing
@72
ReplyDeleteThere are also "SURE MISSES"...
That's like when Shaq has to make a free throw, Sebastian Janikowski has to make a clutch field goal...
... or the ones that come along every 3 months when Alcoa reports earnings...
By the way...
ReplyDeleteCV even "scooped" ZH on this one...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wikileaks-prepares-release-largest-cache-secret-us-documents-history
I was even going to use it as the morning thread (from another source)...
But opted for the comedy instead...
You know... Friday & all... It seems we need a little humor to start our "green Fridays" these days...
CV
ReplyDeleteI thought you meant this Miss Thing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccXtYT7o9wE
@Amen Ra
ReplyDeleteI thought you were going to pull up an old "In Living Color" skit...
Every time TG speaks at the G20 and mentions a "strong dollar" it drops a little bit more.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteZ-snap in a circle...
Probably another LAME attempt this morning to push back up towards 1186...
ReplyDeleteAS IF they think "retail" is chasing this...
It's like...
1. Do POMO and make equities rise (since August)
2. Since retail still isn't interested, get on the horn and ANNOUNCE TO EVERYONE in plain English... "When we do this... PRICES RISE... So PLEASE... frontrun us"...
3. Still no interest
I got news for you BB... RETAIL is out buying snickers bite size candy bars...
Here's Ben Bernanke in his Halloween costume...
ReplyDelete"Hello Mrs. Jensen... I notice you don't have any crappy equities in your shopping cart... Here - let me help you"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgSv1SKCteQ
good morning! I was going to add that CV would have been too young to play The Thing in The Addams Family.. except perhaps for the "movie" and he was probably in Italy, then..
ReplyDeleteNot sure i am quite ready for this day.. and your point about this being a SURE THING is what a lie in bed awake thinking about..
today is important, should give us some clues about next week, I'm itching to short the Q's....but I need some more clarity.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteSince you brought up "In living Color" do you remember this episode during the Super Bowl: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OKwRsnWO84
I think I choked on my beer when I saw this that day from laughing so hard.
Every night when my husband asks what happened with the market I say something like "tomorrow is going to be really important because..." but the clarity never comes.
ReplyDeleteI got a call yesterday from a PSU friend that works at a bank in Cleveland....he's a great guy but an even better contrary indicator...yesterday he kept yelling into the phone...BIDU! BIDU! BIDU!
ReplyDeletelast I talked to him was early April, similar story then. the best ever was at my wedding in July 2008, where he told me how bullish he was.
couple charts to take a look at from Cobra:
ReplyDeletethis one here I've never seen before, very interesting:
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TMGM_iFT6zI/AAAAAAAAI7s/W8HIiYWpuog/s1600-h/2%5B2%5D.png
this signal has led to very nice trading results with high probability:
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TMDnncjXDQI/AAAAAAAAI7c/geZxnqTstVA/s1600-h/NYMOSell%5B2%5D.png
Guess I missed the excitement with BIDU.
ReplyDeleteto his credit,....he did buy BIDU in April when we spoke, it was a good trade, it's just that he's still buying a lot of it.
ReplyDeletealso, not sure if people saw it but GS put out a paper yesterday advising to front run POMO.....
ReplyDeleteNo economic data or major earnings announcements means the algos can churn & burn all day. Unless someone cuts the power...
ReplyDeleteI had a good trade on BIDU (back in May)...
ReplyDeleteLiterallt "top ticked" it by "shorting" within about 20 cents of the peak...
Held on for about 10 handles down, then dumped it...
It was BEER $$ though... So all I got was to drink STELLAS instead of NATTY BOH's for a few weeks...
@Amen
ReplyDelete"unless someone cuts the power"
Where's JOHNNY (from Airplane movie) when you need him?
Unless there is some major dumpage this afternoon...
ReplyDeleteUUP will finally have a HIGHER LOW on the "weekly" candles...
baby steps...
our cash mgmt mm's are now officially at 0%.....get ur risk on bitchez.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteRe: BIDU
At that peak (in May), BIDU hit just above $80...
Everybody should have known right then and there that all stocks that hit $80 eventually go to par $100...
Why?
Because CRAMER TOLD YOU SO...
Here's what I'd do... If I were the CFO of a company, I'd just engineeer a stock split or a reverse stock split at a co-efficient so that my stock reflected an $80 share price after the split...
Then it would be GUARANTEED a 20% rise... Right? Right?
10/22/10 US Treasuries Cross of Death?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.insidefutures.com/article/181362/10/22/10%20US%20Treasuries%20Cross%20of%20Death?.html
Front run Pomo? Yeah, I'm sure it's A SURE THING. What could possibly go wrong, as Andy would say : )
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletewell, funny you bring that up, because somebody just did some analysis on stocks with higher prices in the DOW:
someone might have linked this already
http://market-vipasyana.blogspot.com/2010/10/easy-road-to-higher-stock-prices.html
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI think it's obvious a lot of people do in fact think it's a sure thing, (they rationalize all the down POMO's in August....those were Black Swans, a whole pack of them)
Ben, FYI:
ReplyDeleteA group of swans is generally and generically called a flock of swans; but, according to the Oxford English Dictionary, the correct appellation is a wedge of Swans (when they are flying in a "V" formation). I've also heard of a bevy of Swans but I am not certain this is correct. A bevy usually refers to a group of larks or quails.
@karen (9:53)
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing about that is that most folks will REASON it out to mean that if Treasuries sell off, the $$ will move into equities...
You and I have both laughed about the separation in the 10y vs. ES charts over the past few months...
So who is to say that BOTH equities & Treasuries will sell off together...
I suppose CASH isn't considered an asset class...
sorry if this was posted already, seen it a few times this morning.. my kind of view:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/cash-cow-who-has-cash-who-has-debt-by.html
I was NOT surprised to see WMT underwater in debt...
Karen
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the 30yr bond last night and noticed that it is below its weekly 3LB mid and heading for its weekly 3LB reversal at 130.594.
keep in mind that higher yields will boost the dollar!
ReplyDelete@karen (re: SWANS)
ReplyDeleteAnd then there's always the tasty and appetizing "SON OF SWAN"
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_bd6xxWdZdxo/Sr7Cqk3awEI/AAAAAAAAFSY/R3dKFJfsrsU/s400/swansonmeatloafdinner.jpg
Matt Taibbi’s new book, Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America, comes out next month. There is an excerpt at RollingStone.com that is well worth your time to read:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/griftopia/
ndmyfund
ReplyDelete$$ when goldman sachs is telling clients to front run Fed's POMO - doesn't the MEME reach "jump the shark" status?
http://is.gd/gcRlE
which meme breaks first? "weak dollar" "POMO" "QE2 means can't lose"
I always suspected that Clinton was a little "limp in the bizkit"...
ReplyDeleteGeneral: Clinton Lost 'The Biscuit' -- Nuclear Codes
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/general-clinton-lost-the-biscuit-nuclear-codes/19684849?icid=main%7Chp-desktop%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk1%7C179355
LOL! only you CV! (and I was afraid to look! cuz i don't watch psycho killer movies..)
ReplyDelete"So who is to say that BOTH equities & Treasuries will sell off together...
ReplyDeleteI suppose CASH isn't considered an asset class... "
DING DING DING DING!
I don't understand this logic. What happens when margin is called, re-financing is not available, restructuring is not available, and people just want their money back? At some point people will get it and it will happen.
It is all one trade despite what people may say.
I love the last sentence in that article...
ReplyDelete"As for the complex, layered security system that ensures America's nuclear secrets don't fall into the wrong hands, Shelton wrote, "You can do whatever you can and think you have an infallible system, but somehow someone always seems to find a way to screw it up."
ROR - Kind of like QE2
London's bankers are splurging on strippers even as layoffs in the City are predicted to hit 500,000 The Sun reports.
ReplyDeleteRead more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bankers-spend-strippers-london-recession-2010-10#ixzz13651T5f2
@karen
ReplyDeleteSometimes... FOR A MAN...
The decision between a SWANSON TV DINNER or a CAN OF SLOPPY JOE mix can be a tough one...
Generally, I'd go with the Swanson...
Keeps the strippers off welfare...
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteTrickle it down!
Well at least if the TEAMSTERS don't show up in enough force, the STRIPPERS can get out there and vote for all the big spending candidates...
ReplyDeleteTNX and TYX seem to be saying that it will be more expensive for the US to borrow. Uh oh.
ReplyDeleteSo who is to say that BOTH equities & Treasuries will sell off together...
ReplyDeleteI suppose CASH isn't considered an asset class...
LB expects this to happen once Bucky firms up and heads vertical. Are you listening, Karen? But the sell off in equities will be brief as there will be a scramble for yield at the expense of "growthiness". Expect domestic divvies to prosper at the expense of the emerging mark-ups where P/E ratios are now frightening even LB (India at ~50).
CAT is threatening to take out candle closes going back to Sept 24...
ReplyDelete@LB (10:24)
ReplyDeleteGenerally speaking... I'd agree with your assessment in a medium term timeframe...
LB is getting very itchy on the EEM/SPY/QQQQ sell trigger.
ReplyDeleteWon't be long now.... happy to sit in my divvies and high yield bonds and add to them if there is a 5-10% melt. The more meltage the more I will buy. Treasury bonds are done for me, until we float out to 4% on the 10y again. That's the EVENT HORIZON when we are in the BLACK HOLE of ZIRP.
We like the idea of cheeky gold and long bond shorts as leveraged long bucky trades. We also like the idea of KAREN in short shorts, we like that a lot.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDelete"TNX and TYX seem to be saying that it will be more expensive for the US to borrow."
---
I'm fairly sure that as much BORROWING as can be accomplished will be done during the lame duck session of CONgress...
They'll rape and pillage, & max out the credit card before they high tail it off to lobbyist jobs...
Final Act of "Hope & Change"...
before
EPILOGUE to HOPE & CHANGE
HOPE & CHANGE 2
HOPE & CHANGE (European Vacation)
SON of HOPE & CHANGE
BRIDE of HOPE & CHANGE
HOPE & CHANGE (the resurrection)
& HOPE & CHANGE (an ANTHOLOGY)
Then they'll "change" the technological platform of it, so you can enjoy it on...
- disk
- 8 track
- cassette
- cd
- mp3
- mp4
- blue ray
- holographic 3-D
Please OBI WAN I need your help!
LB,
ReplyDeleteYou still have your ticket for the D-Train? Or are you jumped off the track?
(part 1) Good Dividends Push REIT Performance to the Top
ReplyDelete12:18 PM ET 10/14/10 | Marketwire
Dividend paying companies are attracting a lot of attention right now. Investors usually count on dividend paying stocks during hectic times in the market believing in the company's security and real earnings power. Typically this is the case, but there are some risky exceptions. High yielding REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) must pay out 90% of their taxable income in dividends, meaning that making their dividend payouts will be more volatile. The Bedford Report examines the outlook for diversified REITs and provides research reports on Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) and Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (NYSE: ANH). Access to the full company reports can be found at:
www.bedfordreport.com/2010-10-NLY
www.bedfordreport.com/2010-10-ANH
part 2: REITs earn their money on the spread between low-interest short-term borrowing and purchasing high-interest long-term securities. REITs have posted a nice turnaround in the most recent quarter. The Dow Jones All Equity REIT index rose 12.5% during the third quarter, a vast improvement from the second quarter when REITs posted a 5% decline. A recent study in The Wall Street Journal found that REITs were helped by confidence that credit is becoming more available to commercial real estate.
ReplyDeleteThe Bedford Report releases regular market updates on the REIT Industry so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to register with us for free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.
As mentioned, REITs have some of the highest yields on Wall Street. While high yielding dividend paying stocks are appealing, be forewarned that companies can cut, slash, or suspend dividends at any time, often without notice. Presently, Annaly pays an annual dividend of 2.72 for yield of about 15.30%. Meanwhile Anworth pays 0.92 annually for a yield of 13%.
you all know how i love overlay charts.. well, check this one out: $gaso and $spx daily over the last year (i'm using lines not candles).. correlation break as of october..
ReplyDeleteNo D Train for LB right now - not until we see what Driver Ben has brought us all on board the Q and E trains....
ReplyDeleteLB took the B and the C this morning...
K.,
ReplyDeleteHigh yielding dividend stocks are why one only allocates 2-3% of the portfolio to any one stock. So one would own some 4% drug stocks (BMY, PFE, MRK) and 6% telecoms (T, VZ) to balance out the high dividend guys.
High dividends are like junk bonds, sure they might crash and burn but all the time they are not crashing you make that income....
ReplyDeletesome only pay out quarterly.. 2 quarters can make a miserable holding period in this market, LOL..
ReplyDeleteThe Q&E Train???
ReplyDeleteI'll repeat this ad nauseum...Sell the "news"...
I take everyone back to this announcement...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20071211a.htm
... and what ensued because whatever Halloween candy the market was (or is) waiting for... it WASN'T ENOUGH (or never is)...
new chart in thread
further only qualified divs get the max 15% capital gains tax rate. the rest, ie. most, get taxed at the up to 35% rate..
ReplyDeletei've got a long term div stock myself! thot it would be a safe place to park extra cash but it turned out to not be so safe : )
i suspect this person is an idiot:
ReplyDeletehttp://4oil.blogspot.com/2010/10/crude-oil-is-going-up-to-150-200-barrel.html
Here's a good place to park some cash...
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HrY1jFHQTyU/SM0WhLORW3I/AAAAAAAABGA/08D_Ke3IcG4/s1600/Monopoly-Free-Parking.jpg
oh, brother.. check a daily chart of C.. is that gonna break up or down!??
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI suspect that person is an idiot as well...
But there's the thing... As LATE as we are in the game, I still haven't figured out which is going to happen first (in which ORDER)...
Deflation or Inflation (of course one will inevitably bring about the other)...
What's CLEAR only is what the Fed WANTS to achieve... but, of course, NOT that it will be successful... The "smarter" chips are probably bet the OTHER way...
CV.. @ 11:24, got it.. and also, laughing at what an idiot I am.. I saw that Cash on Hand Chart at least 3 places today.. here first.. but then i forgot and reposted.. sorry! (but it was right up my alley : )
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteand to ADD to my (11:38)...
That's why this is all just a GAME to me... (fooling around with markets)...
My REAL bet (as you know)... Is with hard assets...
Food, Fuel, Shelter, raw materials...
As annoyed as I seem sometimes... In many ways, I'm mildly 'satisfied' with this KICK THE CAN strategy because it has bought me more time to make the necessary preparations without having o be hasty...
@karen
ReplyDeleteI noticed you were talking about GRUBS in the other thread...
There are many different kinds...
Grubs are basically larvae (which could be larvae of anything)...
The main thing to consider first is if they're really a threat to your crop produce or not... If NOT, I wouldn't worry about them too much...
Or... Do what you're doing already and just feed them to the crows for a treat...
Let me ask...
ReplyDeleteDo you have a "japanese beetle" problem?
or "stink bugs"?
There has been a huge explosion of "stink bugs" here in the East this year...
dare i point out the H&S in FXE? and this time i think the beneficiary with be the dollar.. not gold as i posited before..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI posted earlier that were going to finally get a "weekly" HIGHER LOW candle on UUP...
It's a start...
CV.. i have to imagine these are the japanese beetle grubs.. tho i do control them in the lawn and have no brown patches.. but they are in my raised beds! to excess I feel.. some of the beds are dormant (no plants).. i keep digging them up as i work that soil into something fertile.
ReplyDeleteCV! and now i'm wondering if it isn't the japanese beetles that keep eating my jalapeno plants.. but whatever it is, it just eats down low.. my beds are 4 ft high.. rabbits can easily jump up there, i know..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteYou could try some of this stuff (which isn't POISON)...
http://www.planetnatural.com/site/milky-spore.html
But in the end... The stuff you're experiencing is more of a nuisance than anything else I suspect...
Mostly, I just "live with it"...
ReplyDeleteI didn't mind too much some of the minimal tomato crop damage I had this year (because I had an abundance going)...
I DID mind, though, when the jap beetles attacked my grapes... That was a bummer... I lost a lot...
Mess with what CV can turn into LIBATIONS...
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm pissed! :-)
interesting list of potential short squeeze candidates:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/unsatisfied-frontrunning-fed-presenting-most-likely-short-squeeze-candidates
@karen
ReplyDeleteLAST WORD on FRONTRUNNING...
Ancient Chinese proverb...
"Man who run BEHIND car become EXHAUSTED... Man who run IN FRONT of car become TIRED"...
Sounds like slugs to the I, Mistress...
ReplyDeleteOct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials need to be mindful of the effect their actions are having on the dollar, said Richard Fisher, president of the Fed bank of Dallas and a former deputy U.S. trade representative.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=axE1WMhEmf9o
I don't think I have slugs in those beds.. I know I have grubs.. laughing.. I'll keep my eyes out for those devils, tho..
ReplyDeleteBidu's PE? 110+ ??? !!!
ReplyDeleteslugs & grubs are different...
ReplyDeleteyou're "grubs" are probably little white things... right?
I suppose it's possible that we could get a brief USD rally in the wake of this G20 meeting.
ReplyDelete"The banks have only themselves to blame for the fix they’re in. Three years ago, as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spiral, one of the lessons the public should have learned is that the leaders of these companies often have no idea what’s going on inside them. We may be witnessing the same phenomenon again. There’s no excuse this time for anyone to be surprised."
ReplyDeleteJonathan Weil, "Banks Clueless About Foreclosure Mess Severity"
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aFgHqCb5UTAY
my grubs are real grubs! not slugs.. not even close.. that's like calling a slug an earthworm.. do you all think i don't know the difference?
ReplyDeleteDL, I suppose you are right! LOL
OF COURSE DL is correct.
ReplyDeletethis is serious: http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/five-chickens-that-look-like/
ReplyDelete(famous financiers.. : )
another wedge: $xeu:$xjy
ReplyDeletei can't take any more of them..
enjoy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kPCYcBm-C8
oh, that might not be ok at work.
ReplyDeleteIf only Bennet Sedacca were still alive... i might not be questioning my sanity.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amu4eHi32MJ8
Thanks, BEN! one of my favorite clips.. i love how it's been recycled time and time again : )
ReplyDeleteThe Hitler video was funny, but there isn't anything that Pelosi and Reid do that isn't fully choreographed with Obama.
ReplyDeletejust catching up after morning meetings...
ReplyDeletek -
maybe i-man was refering to the damage down low as possible slug damage.
unless u positivley i.d. grubs as harmful, best to non-treat
re k’s bevy of swans (much earlier), a little lunch time comic relief..
three mid-victorian, oxford dons upon espying ladies-of-the-night gathered on the street, vied to name the proper collectiove noun :
1st don, professor of music:
hark, a herald of strumpets!
2nd don, a bon vivant & gourmet:
no sir, a tasty jam of tarts.
3rd don, professor of literature:
not at all gentlemen, unmistakably an anthology of english prose.
(bada-bump)
bat.. hilarious! loved the word play, very sweet..
ReplyDeletethis slow motion day is gathering tension in my back.
the stuff this fellow tweets! tradefast
ReplyDeletemost recent 11% move in spx coincided with a 4% move in financials - yet so many people stuck with mindset that mkt can't rally with finnies
(i think he meant w/o, but whatever : )
Will Bank of America Shares Fall Hard?
ReplyDeleteBy STEVEN M. SEARS
BANK OF AMERICA'S (ticker: BAC) mortgage woes could continue to depress the banking giant's stock for years to come. At least that's what some high-level investors are telling us through their trading activity.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903878204575564301377552976.html
tradefast
ReplyDeleteaccumulate gold on weakness - going higher over the medium term, imo - inflation expectations keep making new highs (based on tips)
@karen
ReplyDeleteI'm not worried that you know the difference...
My guess is that they're jap beetle larvae...
interesting tidbit: http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/the-death-of-the-abacus/
ReplyDeletesight unseen...
ReplyDeletethe commodity space seems to be making a move now that it's getting closer to closing time..
ReplyDeleteI love trading on expectations.....NOT!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/tablet-growth-may-threaten-pc-chip-makers-2010-10-22
ReplyDeleteRemember when the netbooks were cutting in to sales of PC's and profit margins of the computer giants?
Now the tablet is cutting in to sales of PC's and netbooks.
Essentially, technology is getting better and MOST people don't need or want a PC capable of editing a movie or playing the latest video game.
They want something to communicate, watch videos, download movies, store pictures, surf the net. Tablets can do all that.
I think this transcends in to many other areas of life. TWSWB may not see the change coming because on Manhattan island this might be crazy talk but for the average person, less seems to becoming more.
CV,
ReplyDelete"Jap beetle"?
No racial slurs, please.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteRabbits? Deer?
Anything between 4 and 12 inches is vulnerable to being nibbled on, not sure if that's the case in Southern California. You need a fence....
look, here's what's still going on in private REIT land:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ireic.com/Broadcasts/pdf/IW/101110CMGTenderResponseCard.pdf
"the commodity space seems to be making a move now that it's getting closer to closing time.."
ReplyDeleteLB concurs with this sentiment, Mistress.
12 inches?
ReplyDeleteDream on
mrtopstep
ReplyDeleteNew Video: Thin Market With Range Trading http://mrtopstep.com/?p=912
look at some of the commodity stocks today as well, FCX, for starters.
ReplyDeleteon the g-20
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agUyU6.HYQZ4
there was some mention about technological during periods of war the other day, here is some data, I'll change my avatar to a chart you can view in a minute:
ReplyDelete"When do you think society would tend to come up with more technological innovations, when social mood is in a positive trend or a negative trend? If you were going to use the frequency of patent grants to answer this question, would you expect those applications to be a leading or lagging sociometer? Our graph shows that social mood trends, as recorded by the DJIA, do anticipate trend changes in patent grants, which constitute a lagging sociometer. We knew that patent applications would be a lagging data series because it generally takes two to five years from the formation of an idea until the prototypes are made, the drawings completed, the legal aspects investigated, the applications written and submitted and a patent finally granted. The ideas themselves arise more easily during a time of a rising and heightened social mood. A few years later, we see the result."
the picture
ReplyDeletealso, since there is discussion about where the money will go...the behaivoral perspective via EWI:
ReplyDeleten 2007-2009, the DJIA fell 54%, the S&P and CRB Commodities Index fell 57, oil fell 78%. (Figures from Bob Prechter's Oct. Elliott Wave Theorist, which also shows you supporting charts.) Both the U.S. Treasury bonds and the 10-year T-note in 2009 delivered their worst year on record: down 26% and 9.7%, respectively Gold, emerging markets and real estate fell hard in the 2007-2009 crash, too.
The money didn't "move" -- it went "poof." And those who had cash left didn't rush to buy "cheap" assets -- because, "In economics, lower prices tend to bring about an increase in sales. In finance, prices do not regulate behavior in this manner... as prices fall, investors do not increase their percentage holdings of stock; they decrease it."
okay.. the $spx on the ten min is scary as all heck.. and it's a friday : (
ReplyDeleteben... pts taken. poof.. as you say.
ReplyDeletezerohedge
ReplyDeleteFed's Plosser reiterates reservations about QE 2 and says would like to eliminate Fed purchase of private assets
I started shedding some bonds for clients today....lots more to go.
ReplyDelete@karen (1:35)
ReplyDeleteJust change it to a 180 min chart and it'll look like a homing pigeon...
EURJPY & AUDJPY, DXY, TNX, TYX, OIL are up. BKX, XLF, YEN, GOLD are down. Market basically flat on the day. Is this setting up for a super squeeze or a massive dump?
ReplyDeleteBetter hurry, Ben, big shorts might move in to this market soon. There are POMOs next week, but the selling might not even wait for FOMC.
ReplyDeleteLB has scrubbed all rate risk from his portfolio, other than his HY which he will hedge with TBT. You can see from the TLT chart that it is dying...
i don't have 180 min.. but it's putting me at the edge of my seat..
ReplyDeleteIs this setting up for a super squeeze or a massive dump?
ReplyDeleteThere is time for one more squeeze.... the FX guys will sell the dollar hard at least one more time before we get to the November 3 meeting.
these charts are identical on a 3 day 15 min: $spx, spy and fxe.
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletewe dont' have much exposure to govies at this point, I'm actually much more worried about what I have exposed to MBS now, and our OPSIX fund is buying too much HY for our comfort level at this point. Not to mention, we have profits to capture.
It's just time to sit in some cash for a bit with some of this money.
but yes, the COT is showing that the govvie bond trade is waaaay one sided with a bullish bent, which normally wouldn't bother me right away, but it's been like this now for months...it'll give sooner or later, so I'm not going to try and time the top, if it's not already in.
ReplyDeleteIf I wanted HY for clients now I'm better of using JNK than a m-fund where at least I can use a stop loss.
ReplyDeletePsssssssst....
ReplyDeleteQE's going to be a lot smaller than the market expects.
Keep it under your hats.
uup on 3 day, 15 min, trend is up.. fxe down, gld very down, tbt up, tlt down..
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHey hey. Homing pigeon is a bullish reversal pattern. Looks like a bullish harami but both bodies are black. Occurs in a downtrend. So I don't want to see any homing pigeons on the SPX today.
ReplyDelete"If I wanted HY for clients now I'm better of using JNK than a m-fund where at least I can use a stop loss."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, but the risk to JNK here is rate risk, not default, so you can simply hedge your rate risk as we are doing.
Cash looks great going into November 3 !!
volumes today bordering on pathetic??
ReplyDeleteLarry Flynt said...
ReplyDelete12 inches?
We were discussing seedlings in Karen's yard, for goodness sake...
Ben
ReplyDelete130.594 is the weekly 3LB reversal and 130.053 is the 23.6% retrace on the 30yr bond. FWIW.
sake? mmm, delightful with sushi..
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletefor now anyway, my take is that I prefer cash over the hedge because I believe some buying opps will develop over the next 90 days and I'd rather be able to act fast instead of unwind and then buy, if it were only me, sure, I'd go thtat route...I hide out in cash a lot for clients instead of hedging, retail has a really hard time grasping the concept of a hedge in the account, I wish you could listen in on one of those talks, it's tough.
http://www.keyt.com/news/local/Deadly-Shark-Attack-105537773.html
ReplyDeleteRa,
ReplyDeletethanks man, we used to hold a lot of TLT for peeps that's all since been sold, when it hit $104 I sold the last remains which was maybe only a dozen people. I think it's likely I do not rec that for quite some time for anyone now....maybe not again ever, we'll see. What is the upside, after all.....I can pretty easily see the downside, not so much on the up.
I hide out in cash a lot for clients instead of hedging, retail has a really hard time grasping the concept of a hedge in the account, I wish you could listen in on one of those talks, it's tough.
ReplyDeleteLMAO... JOHNNY don't play that HEDGE game.... LOL....
I hadn't looked at it in a long time until today but man...CHK...what a dog.
ReplyDelete"I think it's likely I do not rec that for quite some time for anyone now....maybe not again ever, we'll see. What is the upside, after all...."
ReplyDeleteQE3 ??? ROR !!!
Agreed with all of the above, ben.
if you try to explain that "pros" hedge then it gets even more confusing for them, I've found it's usually best to use cash over the years...that's a concept anyone can understand.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-we-go-fitch-places-bank-america-all-us-banks-rating-watch-negative
ReplyDeleteShould we squeeze em, Giles?
ReplyDeleteTop Step really pounded the table on it getting "spooky" around Halloween, I think they are going to be exactly right...those guys really made a ton of good calls so far this year, I think next week could get real ugly....even if it's just a correction it could be the spooky kind.
ReplyDeletealso, in the interest of disclosure...I got a little short the Q's today....the Q's have provided the best options trades (for me) this year....we'll see how it goes this time.
ReplyDeletesake? mmm, delightful with sushi..
ReplyDeleteCouldn't agree more, Karen. Perhaps we could indulge together some time, on the West Coast?
Although, be careful, things can get out of hand after a few too many sake. Just ask the Bank of Japan....
Shall I squeeze them Lloyd....?
ReplyDeleteI thought about a short of the EXAS stock but too many puts in there recently
ReplyDeleteCould be alot of fun...
ReplyDeleteIt is friday, after all...
we are getting some sushi tonight up in philly, can't wait...Osaka!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.yelp.com/biz/osaka-japanese-restaurant-philadelphia
LB,
I need some foodie recs for NYC, we are going up in two weeks to see Wicked, I think we are staying in Hells Kitchen area....
Cue the prison shower algo...
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteCool. Remind me Monday afternoon when I am not rushed off my feet, and I'll send some recs. Also would be happy to buy you a beer on 9th Avenue.
LB
Please Lloyd, some of the shorts are getting cocky here. Look, one of them is actually mooning you out on West Street....
ReplyDelete"Cue the prison shower algo..."
ReplyDeletewow, that's an instant classic
LB,
sure man...I'll remind you Monday. Can't wait to get back to the city, it's been a long time for me.
Blackrock CEO Seeking Partner To Buy 35% BofA Stake -Fox Business's Gasparino >BLKDow Jones
ReplyDeleteQQQQ High 55.07 in Oct 07. So there's only about a 7% upside and plenty of downside. Hmmm I may have to look into this myself.
ReplyDeletegold and crude moved up.. effing dollar : )
ReplyDeletelets just say for arguments sake that BB saves us, credits us out, reflates....
ReplyDeleteit would seem to me the most obvious end game is then global currency of some sort...I don't think the dollar could survive that.
@I.
what did MA say about gold in that latest update? I didn't get a chance to read that yet.
Wait until the shorts are bending over, Giles, and then apply the....
ReplyDeleteCOLD STEEL, Lloyd?
ReplyDeleteI'm lurking....
ReplyDeleteHavent read that one yet either...
ReplyDeleteI would assume he is still with the 5k target tho...
CV
ReplyDeleteI see a gap on the SPX 180min (10/18-10/19) that hasn't been filled...yet.
Gaps get filled.
ReplyDeleteHave all your recent orders been filled, Karen?
Nevermind Ben, I thought you meant the Sept 17th one, havent read THAT one yet...
ReplyDeleteFor the most recent one, he only touched on gold briefly, no charts or anything, but he said to expect gold and DJIA to rise together.
Here's the site:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
gaps....plenty of those below...I look at this charty daily anymore:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s197588018]&disp=P
here's a question, the gap from early September....was it a breakaway gap? I can't come to a conclusion.
GLD, SLV, EEM, TLT, EMB, TIP, AUDUSD...
ReplyDeleteAll leveraged dollar trades. Hedge funds are involved.
So it's not hard to guess what happens next.
WTF are you doing Giles?
ReplyDeleteIf I cant trust in you boys to screw everyone else over to protect your own interests, who the fuck can I trust???
Now turn this shit around so I can make a quick buck off your evil ways...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/blackrock-ceo-seeking-partner-buy-35-bofa-stake-charlie-gasparino
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures NO VIG here NO flow no VOLUME 25 locals in the pit only 4k SPZs and 720k ESZs trade in the day session DEAD HERE
Even the bots have gone home. This market is a snoozer.
ReplyDeleteExisting homes Monday, Case-Shiller Tuesday, those data points will likely be dollar NEGATIVE and trigger all the QE trades once more.
Weak housing data + POMOs = dollar carry trade. Don't be short.
LB would never be short around Karen.
Hmm...
ReplyDeleteContinuation diamond pattern on 1min YM...
Up or down?
Long then, I assume
ReplyDeletehave w ever had a really flat day like this in the spx before?
ReplyDeletei suppose no one cares but: Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- California’s unemployment rate, the nation’s third-highest, held at 12.4 percent in September, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
ReplyDeleteThe state lost 63,500 jobs last month, the largest decline in the U.S., the Labor Department said today in a regional and state employment report.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6j0rwQkgKiE
@McF
ReplyDelete"lets just say for arguments sake that BB saves us, credits us out, reflates....
it would seem to me the most obvious end game is..."
---
Answer: The END GAME IS...
Own food, fuel, & farmland...
vxx made new 52 week low today, btw.. headed that way again, too.
ReplyDeletePeople REALLY need to consider what I just said (2:48)...
ReplyDeleteBecause the REALITY is that if "reflation" actually does occur (in a monetary sense)...
Then an entirely new game will come about from what exists now...
Things will DE-COUPLE in a way that the very few on one side of the fence will continue to simply zero in on ASSET PRICES...
They won't stand for STATUS QUO... They'll cannibalize each other in an attempt to play KING OF THE HILL...
All at the expense of the OTHER SIDE (who will only become VICTIMS of higher prices)...
Inflation is only contained right now by a mountain of debt...
ReplyDeleteThe HOLDERS of the debt consider it an income stream...
But frankly - the DEBT is never going to get repaid...
So when the HOLDERS of the debt come to terms with that & the point of realization occurs...
They'll flip the switch as just convert evertything they own into hard goods (and/or corner the market on the ability to acquire those goods)...
Of course... Governments will attempt to respond with tarriffs & price controls... Which will only exacerbate the problem...
But you all know this already...
Hmmmm then... Why don't all you whiz kids own food, fuel, & farmland?
About fuckin time, Giles...
ReplyDeleteSlack ass.
"Own food, fuel, & farmland.."
ReplyDeleteand a sword
And herb...
ReplyDeleteAnd a Bible...
And an iPad.
I-Man
ReplyDeleteI just saw TICKS running higher like a bat out of hell. Desperate to force the squeeze.
Glad I took those 10 handles when you gave them to me, Giles...
ReplyDeleteSo Lisp wants to dump em now? Now that all the shorts are gone...
Cool. Lets do it.
I say, I-Man, give a chap a chance. We like to surprise...
ReplyDeleteyeah cool... let's do it...
ReplyDeletealright squad, I'm out, everyone have a great weekend.
ReplyDeletei'm sure you all saw this: FDIC Called On To Put Bank Of America Into Receivership
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/22/fdic-called-on-to-put-ban_n_772535.html
Range, range, range...
ReplyDelete10pt scalper's paradise today.
Maybe we trend again Monday.
boy.. take about the pain trade.. lol
ReplyDeletei need a teq and tonic in the worst way!
Are ya feelin' me, yet? Sometimes I like to come late, very late.
ReplyDelete