I'm going to PUNT...
Here's what ZH says...
Yen Now Back To Pre-Intervention Levels
Whoop de damn do!
Excerpt (eh, forget it - the whole enchilada): "The BOJ has now learned the hard way that these days $20 billion doesn't buy you much: specifically - about 20 days, and a Geoffrey Batt painting of Ben Bernanke running naked behind the US dollar with a chainsaw and a homicidal grin. The USDJPY is now back to where it was when Shirakawa injected Y2.125 trillion, only to see the impact trickle down to nothing. Considering Monday's BOJ action did nothing to weaken the yen, it is almost certain Shirakawa will pull another $20 billion rabbit out of his hat: this time we expect the impact to last at most half as long as the last time..."
"As for what completely irrelevant and totally bubble stocks will do today, here is your answer:"
Well - It's OVER THERE anyway...
In other news... For futbol fanatics...
Liverpool Agrees on $476 Million Sale of Club to Red Sox Owner
Good thing in that is at least you don't have to change your socks... So you have THAT going for you... You're going to have to get used to the new high tech scoreboard though (cause that's how we roll)...
OK - I'm going to have to wrap this up now, because I have to go shopping for some bullshit stock to buy to save Obama's presidency...
It would certainly be nice to open minus a gap today.
ReplyDeleteAT-
ReplyDeleteI'm considering that trade- Moss for Colston
Karen-
yeah that TBP post- I mean really- as if anyone w/ half a brain doesn't know exactly what the game is-
but hey- thanks for telling us (yes we're that stupid)
also- we are now at the point where Bernanke . . .er-I mean Alice asks the Cheshire cat which path she should take-
and the Cheshire cat inquires- "where are you going?"
and Alice says-"I don't know"
and the Cheshire cat says- "then it doesn't matter which path you take"
morning!! no more gaps up here, mcHappy, please!
ReplyDelete"There is a high chance that gold pulls back a couple of hundred bucks in the course of the next 12 months."
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96990?oid=112450&sn=2010+Detail&pid=92730
Looks like Moss might get traded to the Vikings...
ReplyDeletei'm afraid to revisit last night's thread.. was attempting to drown myself in wine.. between, my divorce, the market, and my deck problems.. which one sheet metal guy said they need to take the bottom ten inches of plaster off my house, now, to properly flash.. take the 3 french doors out to put sill pans in.. you can't patch this plaster.. the entire wall would have to be re-floated.. the mess, the expense.. my head is spinning now.. stone guy told me up to $10k and 4 weeks to relay stone.. (i'm sure that's an over-estimate.)
ReplyDeleteI saw that
ReplyDeletelast post responding to CV
ReplyDeleteSounds like a nightmare, Karen. Don't drown yourself, though - we need to around here to class the place up.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteJust go long the S&P for a few days and you'll have your $10k in no time flat...
oh, we are a cheery group this morning!
ReplyDeleteOn #BloombergTV: John Studzinski, a senior managing director at Blackstone Group LP, Says Equities Are `Overvalued' http://ow.ly/2Pi6O
ReplyDeleteritholtz - Leaning against the rally because POMO is "unjust" and "wrong"? Recall Ned Davis: Do you wanna be right, or do you wanna make money
(you all should see his outrageous arm chair avatar on twitter.)
just renamed my team the Singletary 49r's-
ReplyDeleteI need Foster out w/ an injury so Schaub throws the goddamn ball
thank you, spoonman, i'll try to sit up straight today : )
ReplyDeleteA 2.3x% handle on TNX? Uh oh. The curve isn't getting flattened, it's getting steamrolled.
ReplyDeletethank goodness, no gap.. of course, if $spx runs to 1550.. oh never mind.
ReplyDeleteGold touched above 1350. How do you like those apples BB?
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteYou're missing the point on Schaub...
First of all, the Oakland run defense blows, (so they were going to use their best weapon Foster all day there)...
2nd... Andre Johnson & Owen Daniels were hurt... Meaning you have all pro Nnadi Asamogha draped over an inferior receiver (like Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones)...
There's NO WAY I'd have expected Schaub to throw many passes there... They just wanted to get out of town with a win and go back home...
http://www.businessinsider.com/11-long-term-trends-that-are-absolutely-destroying-the-us-economy-2010-10
ReplyDeleteExcellent slide show from BusinessInsider..
ReplyDeletethat ADP was 59k upside down-
ReplyDeleteit seems to me that the truth is going to come down like a hammer- when it does-
Karen- its all ok- I always find if I had a Pabst or two-
I get downright belligerent (not my usual sunny self)
CV-
I have Walter on another league- so was just looking for Schaub to Walter all day long
oh, brother!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/bill-fleckenstein-heres-why-gold-could-shoot-to-8250-2010-10
chart retweet of Nic's: http://chart.ly/aye4oyq
"When you print a lot of money, the people who get the money are better off -- there's no question about it. But the country, the world is worse off," Rogers says. "Sure some of us feel much better, especially people in the financial markets but...the world is not getting better. The world is getting worse."- Jim Rogers
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteYou're still missing the point...
You NEVER, EVER start any receiver that's facing Darelle Revis, Nnadi Asamogha, or Champ Bailey...
You just don't
gdx made a new 52 week high this morning.. $copper up again today, too..
ReplyDeleteand JJC made a new 52 week high, as well.. of course, my jr copper&gold miner has just ignored this run up.. no where near its old highs..
ReplyDeletebreaking news:
ReplyDelete"Done deal: Moss returns to Vikings"
Karen,
ReplyDeletewell, just think, it probably can't get any worse, a year from today maybe all those things aren't a worry to you at all and your biggest problem will be what to dress your salads with.
also, who needs jobs when you have....stimulus!
Interesting on Costco.. "Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) posted lower-than-expected comparable sales in September, pressuring shares even as quarterly profit beat expectations."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69515020101006
Yes, Ben, thanks for the reminder.. and health is the most important thing after all! I need to regain my normally positive outlook.
ReplyDeleteso new england goes after vincent jackson now?
ReplyDeletebig game for the Phils tonight...on the way to the series!
ReplyDeletetoday is weird.. volume must be off the charts ; )
ReplyDeleteI'm going to write this in caps lock because I am trying to emphasize how blown my mind is:
ReplyDeleteHAS ANYONE SEEN THE 10YR? THE 2YR? TNX? WHAT IS GOING ON? DOES ANYONE ELSE THINK THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CRAZY?
Jim (Jimmy?) Rogers video from tech ticker:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/markets-soaring-%22but-the-world-is-worse-off%22-jimmy-rogers-says-535479.html?tickers=%5EDJI,SLV,GLD,UUP,TLT,DBA,MOO&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
spy yields 2+% and you get the price appreciation..
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteGarrard managed 3 TD's against the Broncos at the beginning of the season
is Jim rogers really short? he looks like it in that video. CV is going to love that video.
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteChamp Bailey was hurt
@McF
ReplyDeleteI thought about Patriots & VJ... But it's really not their style...
I think they want to develop Brandon Tate...
ReplyDeleteAlso...
ReplyDeleteBills traded Marshawn Lynch to Seattle...
Lynch & Forsett played in the same backfield at Cal...
ReplyDeletecourse I'd like to be the one that points out that Jim Rogers did in fact say in that video, in a round about way, that "real assets" can't go down.
ReplyDeletewe'll see about that.
Whitney Falters in Trying to Repeat Success of Citigroup Call
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRitpA_AAMqg
and for McHAPPY, Fed Becomes The Second Largest Holder Of US Treasurys In The World
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deconstructing-pomo-fed-becomes-second-largest-holder-us-treasurys-world
@ahab,
ReplyDeletere: comments about propping up asset prices...lol, right?
we were saying over a year ago....so we got a stock market rally, now what?
Also, what a clueless dolt to think that higher asset prices instantly equates to a higher wealth, or what we might call someone's "net worth".....hahaha, not exactly the case all the time smartie.
from the MW bloom article:
ReplyDelete"Bahl & Gaynor’s McCormick said institutional investors don’t pick stocks based solely on the advice of analysts. “What they want is consistency, logic,” he said."
oh see, I'm so dumb, I was thinking reading this that what people want are as follows:
1. Her to be right every time
2. Her to be right immediately
http://www.businessinsider.com/accidental-tweet-breaks-huge-nfl-story-2010-10
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/do-you-wanna-be-right-or-do-you-wanna-make-money/
ReplyDeleteThe comments are going to be wild, I'm sure.. Something to amuse us!!
I gotta go out for a bit peeps...
ReplyDeleteSo don't let this market FLASH CRASH without me...
Be back soon..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/foodstamp-usage-climbs-new-all-time-record-highs
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures -On the day UBS bot up to 2k DT trading bot 1k and MS sold 500 JPM 100 x 300 TOP NOTCH prefers to sell rallies for now
Barry has really taken to bashing Prechter lately, he'd do well to actually read what Prechter has advised people to do rather than just repeating second hand stories incorrectly, which he has done at least three times to RP on his site in the last month, crediting him with calls he's never made. I'd think he'd freak out of someone did that to him, no, I know he would.
ReplyDeleteI guess when you never make mistakes though, you know, like calling for DOW 6,800 in 2006, then you can do that and it's ok.
also, sometimes being right on wall street is about keeping money, not making it, a lesson from 2008 that seems to already be lost for most people, the idea that every turn needs to be called correctly is one of the things at the heart of what is wrong with wall street and oddly enough, the people that are the most upset are also typically the ones that demand that kind of accuracy, or else they label you a fool.
ReplyDeleteTraderMark running with this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/goldman-sachs-says-2-scenarios-for-us.html
"Oil prices were down fractionally ahead of the latest weekly inventory data. They haven't really moved much in the wake of the report, which showed a build of 3.09 million barrels in the face of a consensus call for a build of just 413,000 barrels."
ReplyDeletecursing the dollar! and the fed!
interesting: tradefast
ReplyDeleteno shortable $SPY at fidelity - happens on occasion, not a reliable indicator, imo
b22 @ 10:16-
ReplyDeleteno doubt
dollar dropping.. crude and gold rising..
ReplyDeletegotta roll out-
ReplyDeleteall have a good day
Random morning musings: I heard Dennis Gartman on Kudlow last night (if I keep CNBC on all the time it prevents the kids from watching things I really hate like Spongebob...I've convinced them that Mommy really needs "her" tv shows) and he was saying that his phone is ringing off the hook w/ people wanting him to give interviews on gold and the last time this happened gold promptly sold off $150 bucks. I thought Daneric had some interesting comments re: the nature of wave 2s and where we are w/r/t the flash crash candle. Also interesting to see how weak the naz is compared to the others. CAT seems to have finally broken a trendline and done a little backtest...got burned the last time though so I'm not sure. Maybe once POMO hour is over I'll take another look... Thanks for all the book recs everyone.
ReplyDeleteanyone care to express their views on capital punishment?
ReplyDeletehttp://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101006/NEWS010702/310060048/Butler-County-man-executed
new high in FXA (aussie) today.. boy did i call that wrong.. along with the dollar, of course.
ReplyDeletePIMCO McCulley: We’re confident monetary policy in the developed countries will remain extraordinarily accommodative for a very extended period.
ReplyDeleteI've had mixed feelings about bonds lately, as I mentioned several weeks ago I removed all client money that was left in TLT but I remain heavy weight in BND and PTTAX along with some other bond ETF's and I have a large amount of money in OPSIX which we bought back in mid 2009. This allocation has served clients well in 2010 without much volatility at all and far superior returns vs. the major stock indicies.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go out on a limb and stick with Hendry's/Gary Shillings idea that bond y's are in fact going much lower, they may shock people with how low they go before they blow up, another case of the seemingly impossible made possible by Mr. Market. So while I'm not doing much buying, I'm not selling either, and I have some junk in my trunk with those holdings anyway.
While traders positions according to COT are bullish on bonds still, I do not agree with the idea expressed that traders have not been betting against bonds or the idea that there isn't anyone that doesn't think bond prices will go down from here, Karen linked a business insider article a few days ago showing hedge funds have been betting against govvies for months on end. There are in fact many many prominent hedge funders/mm's that are bond bears of late, Buffett, John Paulsen, Larry Cooperman, Jim Rogers, David Tepper, among many others. Further, retail investors are not in fact embracing safe bonds, they are buying hy and munis according to the fund flow data.
While sentiment was recently in the stratosphere for bonds, and so perhaps a few months of poor performance could be here, I'm not convinced this bad boy doesn't have a lot more room to run.
anyway, long post, just trying to remind myself I should be paying more attention to bonds anyway, stocks are the sideshow.
" I thought Daneric had some interesting comments re: the nature of wave 2s"
ReplyDeleteyeah, that was a good post by dan, of course, wave b's can be just like wave 2's as well
;-)
thanks for your thots, ben.. i am feeling the same.. 2% on the ten.. could happen.. we are below El-Erian's low prediction right now! 2.383!! 2.22 seems a sure bet.
ReplyDeletea red aapl? i thot the market offered only one variety, green aapls.
ReplyDeletethis is not a recommendation to short oil!
ReplyDeletehttp://bespokeinvest.squarespace.com/thinkbig/2010/10/6/oil-inventories-much-higher-than-expected.html
ok Karen, feel free to rip me to shreds if this doesn't play out because I'll deserve it but I have considered us seeing a 1.5 on the 10 year....wacko I know, but its a mad mad mad mad world.
ReplyDeleteI have lunch with PIMCO tomorrow, will share what they tell me afterward.
seems the big boys are heavily short nas so no surprise to see it lagging, would love to see NDX show some relative weakness for a few days straight since most of the high momentum plays are in there.
ReplyDeleteBen, i think you will find this fascinating..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/model-for-pricing-gold-2010-10
karen, i'll spend some time on that one tonight. I don't think it's all that complex, golds value comes from perception, there is no secret formula, people have perceived gold to be valuable for 1,000's of years, sometimes we perceive its value to be higher than at other times, just like everything else, but I'll read about the model.
ReplyDeleteI opened a gold money account recently, I've got a tiny bit of money in it now, hoping I don't completely get left in the dust, one of the hallmarks of a real bull market is that it never truly pulls back to let you in at a great price, and that window might have closed when gold went down to $680.
ReplyDeletetoo many links to follow today!!! 8^0
ReplyDeletejust now catching up. from Dear Conspiracy Crackpots: Here’s How QE Works fed buys Ts > long rates down > homeowners re-fi > lower monthly payments > homeowners spend more. same as it ever was: home as atm. but it might just be different this time. my sister just re-fi'ed with credit union for significantly lower payment, yet will use the savings to accelerate mortgage pay-off. i likely will do the same in near future.
I just blew it.. couldn't take it after reading one of BR's replies.. what a d*ck!! anyway, i had to post.. i am such an idiot. Well, i won't go back there.
ReplyDeletelike I said, his idea is you need to hit every single move, you can't say "there is no excuse for missing the rally" if you dont' feel the same way about hitting every big decline, iow, if you aren't long every rally and short every decline you are somehow failing, and as I've mentioned before, Barry lost money in 2008 in the primary fund they use at Fusion, so, I'm not sure why he is going on and on like this.
ReplyDeletealso, nobody take this the wrong way, I'm not 'calling anyone out', but I do not understand the statement "trade what you see, not what you think"
ReplyDeletefor staters, I still have to think about what I see, and at the same time, I don't think the statement is meant to imply you shouldnt' think when you trade. I think it's a little bit silly, even if were just trading charts, there is always more than one possible outcome.
Bye bye netflix...suddenly dropping like a rock.
ReplyDeleteBen, I agree with you across the board.. thanks..
ReplyDeletek -
ReplyDeletedo us a favor, luv. give us a link to your tbp post. please don't make us read thru all the other comments. thx.
sorry, my bad, didn't look first. just assumed there'd be a sh*tload of chaff to wade thru
ReplyDeleteFCX seems to have gone parabolic.
ReplyDeletedarn it, bat!! i didn't want to go back there, and look he replied:
ReplyDeletekaren Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 11:35 am
Hindsight is 20/20.. this post wreaks of hubris.. and i find it hilarious..
~~~
BR: This is not me pounding my chest — as I have made it very clear in prior posts, we are still 50% cash. This is an observation of the armchair policy wonks who have missed the rally.
oh, Jenn, rub my face in it! my copper/gold miner in the tank and FCX going to the moon.. thanks.
ReplyDeletejust in:
ReplyDeleteBanks Holding Derivatives: Big Threat?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1608051050&play=1
K -
ReplyDeletefeel for you, but look at slw vs. ngx since '08 when my "advisor" unloaded all my slw
(i meant just in my inbox..) okay i'll be gone for about 20 min.. : )
ReplyDeletethat's for DL as I know he awaits my every word.
The premise of "trade what you see" is simply to remind you to not overthink trading... if the trend is up, it is up...
ReplyDeleteI think the spirit of it is to keep you from trading what you think, if it is in opposition to current price movement.
If you are a reversal trader, this is one of the toughest concepts to grasp.
I get into this struggle all the time, and most of the time, the best trade is what the market is doing, at that moment.
But you do have to think... thats the human element.
Algos dont think, they just trade. Thats why we will always have an edge.
Just some thoughts, getting I and I ass kicked in this range today... no conviction, alot of $$$ chewing going on.
you know why CV is an excellent blog host, because whether you agree with him or not, like what he says or not, you don't need some sort of decrypter to understand what he is saying or where he stands. Barry seems to have to explain what it is he means to say quite often.
ReplyDeleteI hope I can work on being as straightforward with people as possible in my lifetime.
Well, finished until the mine opens. I noticed the pictures of CV have been removed...hmmmmm..
ReplyDeleteI still can't find the Economist story about the Investment Cycle that in their study of the markets of the entire time that stock markets existed (this was about 12-15 years ago) that the strongest correlation to rising equity prices was the availability of liquidity for stock purchases. Globally. But I assure you that is what the conclusion was.
That said, this is such an abberation. I don't know how long it can go on, but as Tepper and Barry said today, it is what it is. My own opinion, and I posted the lesser education white vote in November will go overwhelmingly against current policies on the Amen Ra post last night, that when the election results are in in November we may see the market decline. Not because Bernanke will be gone, but because analysts will see that Federal sponsorships of redistribution of taxes will stop due to the new makeup of the congress...
..just my two cents.
bruce.. from how many months ago.. i have a stack of economists.. okay.. i really gotta go now! just for a bit..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI photocopied that article and gave each member of my investing "group" a copy during the tech bubble, so it had to be prior to 1998. I have tried everything I know short of going to a library that has all the old Economists on electronic storage.
We used to get it in the office in my prior life.
@karen
ReplyDeleteWhile yacht shopper Barry is glibly deciding whether he should be right or make money...
Here's what the innocent "poor" people are dealing with...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/out-control-listen-terrifying-911-call-thugs-hired-jpmorgan-chase-breaking-down-door
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteThat a**hole blog host at SC deleted my pictures...
Can you imagine that? This blog sucks!
Low of 2.360% on the TNX? Damn!
ReplyDelete"but because analysts will see that Federal sponsorships of redistribution of taxes will stop due to the new makeup of the congress"
ReplyDeletebut but, I thought that was what Obama was bringing to the table?
here's what I think it's going to be like by Thanksgiving:
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
I'm back! Bruce, can't you ask any of those people if they kept a copy of the article?? anyway, that's why stocks levitated in 2007/08
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/06/citigroup-sells-credit-card-portfolio/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDelete"Low of 2.360% on the TNX?"
That probably puts fair value on the S&P around 700...
OTTAWA (Dow Jones)--Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Wednesday there is a danger that freely traded currencies will be "disadvantaged" by interventions and currency inflexibility.
ReplyDeletein whatever! news: (Reuters) - Fitch cut Ireland's credit rating Wednesday and consumer morale slumped as the cost of cleaning up its banks hit home and the financial regulator warned of more bad news as the country's property market continues to unravel.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6952X220101006
U.S. Restaurant Sales Signal ‘Resiliency’ of Consumer Spending
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYk2j_mwhAkA
(wishful thinking)
ReplyDeleteChartLines - Dollar turnaround back up can be "surprise" for mkt, keen to see impact on yen also if euro turns back from the Fib test @mrtopstep descr.
26 minutes ago via Mobile Web
Retweeted by mrtopstep
@karen
ReplyDeleteLet's see... After 18 months...
- half of, what was, the competition, is now boarded up...
- The government extended unemployment benefits
- nobody is paying their mortgages or credit cards
- offer a $7.99 dinner plate
PRESTO... Restaurant sales up!
Now when the S&P drops below 1040... The rest of them will get boarded up...
BTW -
ReplyDeleteThat John Stewart video link yesterday was hilarious...
CV
ReplyDeleteThat's the same thing I've been thinking about same store sales. It's up but there are far fewer stores.
TLT back up at 106...
ReplyDeletedid AT say he was leaving for Vegas yesterday? I just sent him a bunch of e-mails.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI went out to eat last night (but mostly because most of the staff at the the restaurant I went to are all in a FF league with me)...
Anyway... It's a decent example because it's in a pretty decent area (yet it caters from casual to upscale)...
There are a decent amount of tables and it can get busy at times...
Tuesday's they feature "half price burger" night (and have for MANY years, way back before 2008)... Usually that PACKS the place, as the burgers are pretty good, and you can order anything off he menu anyway...
Mostly the people spend the same amount as they would for a normal dinner tab... What they save on the burgers, they just buy a few more drinks or appetizers to go with it...
Anyway - It wasn't all that PACKED yesterday... It wasn't DEAD either, but not even close to what it normally is...
i thot AT was posting from Las Vegas last night.. did you read that thread? you missed some fantastic fotos of CV..
ReplyDeletemy wife and I ate a cheesburger in paradise a few weeks ago, it was jam packed, took my cousin out this past weekend as he was in town, every place was booked solid Saturday night.
ReplyDeleteI haven't really seen what it's like a week-night though.
Luckily I saw them this morning, I was working on something at home last night so I couldn't get on much, I still can't believe he could do a full split, that was pretty impressive to me.
ReplyDeletewell, while I wouldn't mind eating a cheeseburger in paradise (which is in PA, ror), meant to say we ate at one....
ReplyDeleteI had several frou frou fruity madness drinks while I was there as well.
@McF
ReplyDeletesplits are easy... I can still do them now no problem...
It's the jumps that are hard...
did they have alcohol in them?? LOL
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I live about 3 miles from a rock quarry here in East Tennessee. Fellas, I live WAY out in the country.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, this quarry has been busy since we built our house. Often working all day Saturday and half days Sunday. The rock quarried from this place is sent all over North America for residential and commercial buildings.
For the last six weeks we've heard none of the occassional noises one hears from quarries so this weekend we took a hike to the quarry. All the equipment has been moved to storage sheds and the lubricants and other essentials carefully stacked and in order. No vehicle tracks. Dead as a doornail...closed.
i was a mess last night on less than a bottle of wine.. my nerves are shot.. meeting with a forensic contractor at 10:30 PT.. so I may be out of pocket for a bit : )
ReplyDeletegoog has given up a good half of yesterday's gains if anyone cares..
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGlumShYwrhI
ReplyDeleteDollar Drops to 15-year Low Against Yen as Companies Cut Jobs
"Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs in September, according to figures from ADP Employment. The median of a Bloomberg News survey of 37 economists projected 20,000 added jobs.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, reached 77.39 today, the lowest since Jan. 20.
“The negative dollar, this has been the big market driver and will continue to be,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. He said the Japanese will not intervene in the currency market before the G7 event scheduled for Oct. 8 in Washington.
Both the euro and the yen are “broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals,” the International Monetary Fund said, while the dollar is “on the strong side.”
TREND... we have TREND!
ReplyDeleteSo if the dollar is on the stong side......
ReplyDeleteand meanwhile in Germany...
ReplyDeleteGermany saw a surge in manufacturing orders in August, boosting hopes that Europe’s largest economy will still power growth across the continent even as the euro strengthens and the US recovery splutters.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5e88d26-d13a-11df-8422-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss
sw ohio employment picture update: we still haven't hired back all staff laid off in june '09. our latest hire just received her m.s. in chemical engineering @ uwisc madison. a lot paperwork involved though, since she's a chinese national. export blue collar jobs to china, import white collar professionals from china. go figure.
ReplyDeleteOne more mini push into the next lower high?
ReplyDeleteWhere my dogs at?
McF @ 1:08
ReplyDeleteThe "cheeseburger indicator".
Does that mean go long stocks?
@DL
ReplyDeleteNo... I'm only buying stocks because of THE ELECTIONS...
And because Barry Ritholz said I needed to be "in" and make money, not "wrong" on the sidelines...
AT's about to get vindicated... are you smiling Andy?
ReplyDeleteRithholtz is an ass, anyway. I have always thought so...
ReplyDeleteAre there any really obvious economic events that would otherwise prevent the market from going down scheduled for tomorrow? Thinking of buying a few puts...
ReplyDeleteThinking that oil would be range bound at year end is turning out to be a mistake. I overwrote one of my energy positions in September (deep out of the money calls) and, low and behold, a 20 percent rally. I'm about 2 percent away from being short an in the money call. (ugh)
ReplyDeleteLuckily, my junior miner has been doing well.
Anyone up for gambling in shippers? Karen? :D
where's my catalyst at?
ReplyDeletetry the new catalyst app.
ReplyDelete"Anyone up for gambling in shippers?"
ReplyDeleteonly if it is a greek shipper, like DSX, I only buy greek.
Cant someone stir up a currency crisis real quick?
ReplyDeleteRosie and following, currency wars.
ReplyDeleteGood for a chuckle or two...
http://video.ft.com/v/626138135001/US-headed-for-Japan-style-economic-slump-
ReplyDeleteCould be anything...
ReplyDeleteGreek, Dubai, Irish, Portugese, Chinese currency manipulation, Kim Jong buying dollars... anything.
Spanish insolvency...
ReplyDeletegive us sumthin...
yall hear bernanke was long GLD?
ReplyDeleteI heard Lloyd was selling spoos...
ReplyDeleteand Obama's long SSO calls.
ok one last comment on this:
ReplyDeletedo I want to be right or do I want to make money?
Um, I'm going to go for both, how about that?
also, how could you make money and be wrong?
also, how could you make money and be wrong?
ReplyDelete...Lloyd said the same thing...
Open a 3 trillion dollar FX account and buy dollars...
ReplyDeleteyeah, like I said, my question is fair because you can't be wrong and make money, you would have placed a bet directly against the winning outcome.
ReplyDeleteapparently the post was just a reminder not to fight the tape, so I repeat, I hope in my lifetime I can practice being straightforward with people.
Hussman says 5% growth on S&P over ten years.
ReplyDeleteso, check this, my old compliance supervisor asked me in 2008:
"why are you running the gross returns in your financial plan retirement analysis at 5%, it should probably be higher because historically.....(charlie browns mom's voice is all I heard after that)"
you know, cause compliance is there to help our clients by making sure I'm doing the right thing.
I think all those census workers were recruited to buy dips in the equity markets instead...
ReplyDeleteMaybe they all got no doc loans from GE Capital and GMAC, subsidized by the USG.
HAHA. TNX closed at 2.399%. Couldn't get back to 2.4%. Balls in your court BB.
ReplyDeleteSo CV... are you still as ripped as you were in those photos last night?
ReplyDeleteOr was that peak physical condition?
yeah, I wonder that myself I. CV, also, did you have to cut your water intake in order to get that cut?
ReplyDeleteMaybe that's my problem...too much water. And all this time I thought it was too much time sitting in this chair in front of the computer monitor.
ReplyDeleteInspiration from Trader Mark: However, after being beaten like a seal by Ben Bernanke's club for 6 weeks straight you lose your fight, especially in a rigged market where Fed officials now blatnatly say out loud they are trying to manipulate asset prices. What a joke the market has become. An embarrassment.
ReplyDeleteAll the momos are falling apart...APKT is down 9% today.
ReplyDeleteSounds like Trader Mark needs to step back a bit...
ReplyDeleteShit cant fall apart unless most believe that the Fed will take care of everything...
Thats the whole point!
i'm back.. trying to catch up.. had to meet with several more contractors.. (a forensic one, general one, and waterproof one.)
ReplyDeleteshippers! i still have my dht.. do like the dividend... the price not so much.
water is good!! you guys are crazy! it's fat that is covering your muscles..
@I-Man/McF
ReplyDeleteI've been more "cut" than that for foto shoots and other things...
I wasn't training for "look" there, I was training for performance...
That's an all out, 2 minute, balls to the wall, lung busting routine... Just to get thru 2 minutes without puking, you naturally have to be in good shape...
So nothing special...
Not really even a lot of weight training, or much dieting... More sport specific training, and just eating to keep your energy up for 5-6 hours a day of training...
It's hard to eat really (because you have to mix it in with training)... Most of the time, by the time it came to eat, I was too tired, and had had to force myself to eat...
karen,
ReplyDeleteyeah I'm sure CV drank a ton of water when he was training but I know that a lot of bodybuilders go through some crazy stuff right before a competition to get that kind of muscle striation
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteThat's why I think most of these exercise videos & programs that people sell are a load of horsecrap...
Anybody can get in shape doing anything, as long as there's an objective, and time dedicated to the purpose...
But you can waste your money if you want...
I cant even imagine the strength it takes to do that standing on one arm breakdancing move...
ReplyDeleteSick...
CV,
ReplyDeletewhen I was a hardcore runner doing 80-100 miles per week I would almost always ended up sick by the end of my season because I didn't eat properly, I never felt like eating after training like that but my body needed it. I got anemic as a result of this my junior year, which was a disaster, I was having a great season up to that point, major bummer.
CV,
ReplyDeleteYou could probably outperform the nittany lion in one arm push-ups.
Thats kind of how I feel about shorting at the moment...
ReplyDelete"you can waste your money if you want"
Jah knows I've tried a few times today...
@McF
ReplyDeleteBodybuilders and posing routines are completely different than this...
A two minute routine is like running back to back 400 meter sprints (but instead of just running), you have to jump, do presses, high kicks, pushups, and smile & present all the time you're doing it...
this is the most different the indices have been for many months.. naz down 1.08.. dow up .03 and spx down .29
ReplyDelete"A two minute routine is like running back to back 400 meter sprints"
ReplyDeletewell, I was a half-miler, so if it's like that, yeah, you throw up, ....often.
I also noticed you were detailing pointed toes and such, it looked hard.
karen,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure EWI will note tonight that the higher beta nas being down more means that P3 is imminent.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI want to see you "pancake" :-)
new foto in thread
I love this comment from poster "jw" on that ritholtz thread:
ReplyDelete"Careful you don’t become a contrary indicator, since we’re now living in the bizarre world where it pays to fade the faders who thought they were fading the fade."
On point.
CV, I'm enamored of the parkour movement-have you watched any videos of their training? Lots of body weight stuff, some moves from gymnastics. Cool stuff, and interesting philosophy using the environment, challenging the way you confront barriers, etc. Good prep for the revolution.
ReplyDeletewho were those ladies with the signs CV, groupies?
ReplyDeleteDude... I couldnt do that shit in my senior wrestling season...
ReplyDeleteNo way I could do it now.
I-man.. i liked that comment, too! almost reposted it here ; )
ReplyDeleteCV.. pls.. how inferior do you want to make us feel !! and btw.. i have pulled my favorite fotos onto my desktop.. drag and drop.
where are these fotos everyone is ogling?
ReplyDelete@short crone
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry to say I'm not familiar with what you're referring to...
I'm a "basics" type...
In the end, it's calories in, calories out... Energy utilization profile... and type 2 fiber recruitment...
There are a lot of ways to achieve those ends...
That's why I don't like people coming along and saying "my way is the way to do it"...
@72
ReplyDeletegone... vanished...
Like any comment that CV tries to put up on Ritzy's board...
ReplyDeleteYou know... the last two times the dollar was down here...
ReplyDeleteThe market was a lot lower 5 months afterwards...
Just saying...
Here's a link to a 4 part video series: long, but hey, what else can you do in this market? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poph6Jmc688&p=98E854F495913919&index=1&feature=BF
ReplyDeleteAfter training for a triathlon, the idea of using the environment to develop your body and mind has been refreshing and inspiring. I'm not likely to be leaping from wall to wall, but I can incorporate strength development in my runs, etc.
I'm not sure how verifiable this data is but:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-cash-flows-etfs-2010-10
remember yesterday i pointed out Hyg:LQD.. well, look at it today.
ReplyDeleteOn the subject of FLASH CRASHES...
ReplyDeleteDaneric had some words on the S&P trying to get back it's May FLASH CRASH candle... yada yada...
Well AAPL had a little "mini flash crash" last week, and it's still not managed to close a 60 minute candle to regain what was the level before...
Just saying...
short crone.. you mean they came up with a special name for just having fun?!
ReplyDeleteI think the British version is "general messing about"! What's interesting is that they meet to train, then do what looks to be incredible stunts. Later in the video they say that there are actually few serious injuries-just scrapes and bruises. My version is quite small-sometimes leaping onto park benches in the middle of my run.
ReplyDeleteI'm training for survival skills that will be needed in a post apocalyptic meltdown...
ReplyDelete"My version is quite small-sometimes leaping onto park benches in the middle of my run."
ReplyDelete---
When I want to beat myself up like that, I just go in and short some stocks...
Works fine!
How about a bowdrill forearm workout?
ReplyDelete:)
"The only solution is a long period of debt deflation, downsizing and economic rehabilitation, including a sustained downshift in consumption and corresponding rise in national savings"
ReplyDeleteRead more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-us-is-in-race-to-the-fiscal-bottom-2010-10#ixzz11bwvpIvs
according to my friend, this is brilliant macro commentary.. i am going to listen now:
ReplyDeletePart 1 with Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608686095&play=1
Part 2 with Kyle Bass and Alan Fornier of Pennant Capital...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608699590&play=1
Part 3...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608700028&play=1
interesting reading the posts still over on that TBP threadm, it's a good social mood post, I often wonder how many of these blowhards have actually realized their huge gains cause they don't mean shit if they haven't. I cashed in every stock at SP 1k, so the gains became real and i was lucky to extract some money from the market....none of us are still faked out by paper right?
ReplyDeleteAlso, if anyone is worried about fiat going up in smoke (silly I know because the Fed will take care of.....er...nevermind) well, you can't wait ini the name of not missing a rally because the doors that luckily are still open that allow you to get your money out of the country, safe, and accessible, well they are slowly closing, some did a while ago, by the time everyone wants to do it though, they will all be shut, it's too late then.
I guess though while the market is "massively rallying" that doesn't matter?, I mean, what kind of dumbass might be willing to deal with some opportunity cost by creating peace of mind in getting a portion of their assets safe.
also, note that bulls in frustration have resorted back to labeling anyone bearish as those that believe "the world will end", a bear is simply someone that thinks the trend of prices are going to be down for a time, the biggest bears I know are not calling for the end of the world, not even close.
anyway, the faith based movement led by the First Assembly of the Fed really puts most other religion to shame with the amount of faith the followers have in the "church"....
a good quick read!
ReplyDeletehttp://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/what-is-eqix-telling-us.html
How about a little prediction?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised to see a quick dip & return to 1130 this week...
Bad news in Asia overnight peeps?
gotta go peeps...
ReplyDeleteCheck back later...
oh brother do I have a dangerous situation here.. a bin full of watermelon and lime juice..
ReplyDeletelol karen
ReplyDeleteEWI Update is early for the fine folks of Survivor Captial. That is what your subscription fee gets you, er, um, nevermind.
ReplyDeleteMinor 3 has begun - again.
Oh yes, and I REALLY REALLY REALLY mean it this time.
ReplyDeletehere is a specific example of my bond post up top, this is WB via Rosie today:
ReplyDelete"“They’re making a mistake, the ones that are buying the bonds ... It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can’t imagine anybody having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities, a diversified group of equities. But people do because they lack of confidence. But that’s what makes for the attractive prices. If they had their confidence back, they wouldn’t be selling at these prices. And believe me, it will come back over time.”
there is no bigger mouth than his, so it's a bit hard to swallow this idea nobody thinks bonds are the wrong bet.
funny the "diversification" mention...market myth.
Ben, that reminds me of a quote that one of my first trading mentors used to say alot:
ReplyDelete"Never confuse brains with a bull market."
The context was, dont think you're hot shit in a trade... ever. Gains... not brains.
also:
ReplyDelete"There are now, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report, 79,796 short contracts on U.S. Treasuries on the Chicago Board of Trade, and there are 78,361 long contracts."
Diversification = Shotgun Approach
ReplyDeleteAsset Allocation = Shotgun Approach
If you have an idea, know it inside and out, and take your risk there... you cannot know everything.
So much of the wealth mgmt industry does the shotgun approach...
yeah, i'm in that school, if you've done your homework as a trader and you are confident and want to place your bet, you would not diversify, you would concentrate.
ReplyDelete