Of course, now it's 9AM, and the stick saving algos, I see, have been hard at work the past 5 hours to assure you hard working Democrats, Capitalists, Obama Supporters, Americans, morons out there who pour every last cent of your hard earned, stolen, saved from not paying your mortgages money into risk assets (because you'd rather make money than be right)...
When are those elections? And who is this guy, and when is his "bitch" coming back?
good morning! you took the words right out of my mouth.. overnight lows as follows:
ReplyDeletedow 10877
spx 1151.75
nas 2007.50
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/equities-report-1012/
ReplyDeleteEARNINGS REPORTING TODAY
ReplyDeleteCSX - after bell
INTC
POSCO
retail interest in stocks continues to accelerate, five e-mails this morning on stock purchase inquiry.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, commercial traders have reduced exposure to S&P for 6 straight weeks
I could have gotten long some vix calls yesterday but I didn't.
ReplyDeleteEARNINGS TOMORROW
ReplyDeleteJPM
Thursday
GOOG
Gonna have to consult back to Andy's charts if 1158 gets taken out...
ReplyDeleteCouldn't break through the round number 1160. Figures. I want a retest. I alos wonder how many stocks will get FC'd during the day.
ReplyDeleteFC'd=Flash crashed
@McF
ReplyDeleteI just looked... I'm playing you this week in FF...
Ruh Roh... I've got Aaron Rogers with a concussion, and Finley out with a hamstring injury... Steve Smith is out, Green-Ellis & beanie Wells on BYW weeks...
Things aren't looking too good for CV...
Spoke too soon.
ReplyDeletein a perfect world-
ReplyDeletethe market reflects reality, Dwayne Bowe can catch a football and Ryan Mathews runs for a 100
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteGoldman Tells Clients To Buy COMEX Gold At $1,364.2, Raises 12 Month Gold Forecast From To $1,650, Silver To $27.60 http://bit.ly/9x9TTH
C,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I was looking over your roster late last night. I'm really liking where my squad is at right now, but you never know. If Rogers doesn't play that's obviously huge for me.
Dwayne Bowe made it onto C'MON MAN last night...
ReplyDeletea dubious honor...
It'll be a huge loss for me...
ReplyDeleteHard to recover his kind of production...
I saw that-
ReplyDeletethat drop in the end zone-
woeful
Luckily, I play THEM THUGS next week, and that's Peyton Manning's BYE week... So some of it evens out...
ReplyDeleteUSD-JPY 81.8910 -0.1782 -0.22%
ReplyDeleteAre we there yet?
no worries, Japan's Central bank has it under control, just like ours.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/kiss-coasting-along-13-day-moving.html
ReplyDeleteLB
ReplyDeleteConsidering how quick the last BoJ intervention lasted I'd say probably not.
here's a question- all the talk of QE2-
ReplyDeletewho has guaranteed that that is a lock-
where was it said- "yes- in November- we will start QE2?
it could all be fantasy and wishful thinking
e-mails keep rolling in peeps:
ReplyDeleteDear Benjamin:
Today's market is forcing Financial Advisors to look for alternative strategies for attractive client returns. While the High Yield market is garnering a lot of attention in the media with headlines like the NY Times' Junk Bonds are Back on Top, positioning High Income investment strategies and overcoming client apprehension requires a certain level of education and awareness.
We'd like to share with you a recent webinar on the High Yield and bond market lead by our partners at SMH Capital Advisors. In this free 30 minute audio and slide presentation, you will learn:
How to debunk the myth that High Yield is risky
Why 'stocks for the long run' may not be the best option for your clients
Why it's important to consider SEC Yields when examining bond funds
Why ETFs tend to massively under-perform the High Yield index
Where you can go to download supporting documentation on the high yield market to share with your clients
Is anybody getting any anecdotal reasoning as to why we're red today...
ReplyDeleteExcept for... THE ECONOMY
You see, what happened was that THE ECONOMY has been great for the past 34 days, but last night, THE ECONOMY got bad...
That's it...
ahab,
ReplyDeletewho says when QE2 is implemented it isn't fantasy and wishful thinking....where do we think all the credit comes from anyway?
CV,
ReplyDelete9:51....now what kind of question is that....easy.
BUSH
Yesterday was the first pure doji I've seen on the SPX. Open and close were 1165.32.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX yesterday was good for at least a day or two of Red, we'll see if this biatch can stay down much longer....
ReplyDelete. . .or maybe the market is setting up an expectation which the Fed then has to follow through on-
ReplyDeleteor not
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThe QE2 notion came about from the comments at Jackson Hole in August...
But it's all really BS, because stated or not, the Fed's going to pull every lever it can in its little "experiment"...
The Teppers of the world are just using it as a reason to unload their longs at higher prices...
This is no different than realtors telling you that house prices would rise for at least a decade (back in '05)...
All I will say about HY is that rate risk is fairly limited. Buy the dips, but especially the big ones that are related to rate risk perception.
ReplyDeleteEarnings season starts soon, no? What's the schedule? If we rallied weakly today on the Fed minutes and ended into resistance I might short the close.
Watch the 2y auction. At some point the enthusiasm for 34 bps will wane...
ahab
ReplyDeleteThe Fed doesn't have to announce QE2 at its Nov meeting. Put a scare in Wall Street. Then three days later make the announcement. Which is what they've been doing anyway.
This is no different than realtors telling you that house prices would rise for at least a decade (back in '05)...
ReplyDeleteI had many a realtor type tell me that the DC market was different and at the very least- no matter what happened- the homes on or near the Potomac would never go down in value-
although I didn't quite laugh in their face- I was certainly thinking it
earnings season has already begun, didn't AA already report?
ReplyDeleteSorry, 3y auction today.... but you get the point.
ReplyDeleteDoes AA earnings actually mean anything? ROR.
@Amen (9:56)
ReplyDeleteThat's basically what happened in 2007 when the market was waiting for more 50 basis point easing...
Then they came out with a 25 basis point in the December meeting and the market took it with a THUD...
It managed to rally back and stay buoyant thru Christmas, but by January 2008, they were leaving the market in droves...
That was the beginning of the end...
I put some of the earnings reporting (of note) earlier in the thread...
ReplyDeletehere's today's:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US
Given where operational earnings estimates are going into next year, which imply 7% nominal GDP and 5% inflation according to DR, then yes, all the earnings matter.
ReplyDeleteMarc Faber's call: sell bonds, buy stocks, dollar and rates to rise.
ReplyDeleteFaber Says Turn Coming
He is usually right, often a month or so early. We concur, although we are cash rich waiting for a correction in stocks.
Ra-
ReplyDeleteI see much of what is going on as jawboning-
and I see the Fed in a very tight spot- all they can do is shoot for speculation (to keep asset prices afloat)-
the Hail Mary of the finance world
Ben
ReplyDeleteI meant that AA is widely considered to be the most groomed and "gamed" b/c it is out first and hence nobody pays attention.
cursing the XLF/$bkx...
ReplyDelete. . .and really- how helpful is driving down rates when rates are already at unprecedented lows
ReplyDeletefrom Ben this morning:
ReplyDelete"retail interest in stocks continues to accelerate, five e-mails this morning on stock purchase inquiry.
Meanwhile, commercial traders have reduced exposure to S&P for 6 straight weeks"
Clearly we are headed for one of those periodic 3% sell-offs that have punctuated this run-up. But the big dump doesn't come until after the QE announcement.
"how helpful is driving down rates when rates are already at unprecedented lows"
ReplyDeleteIt is helpful to us, obviously. The rest of you can fuck yourselves.
Well, Faber also published a subscriber letter on 10/1 stating that he'd use rallies to "lighten up positions" and remains worried we see 850-900. He advised a short of Apple in his last letter.
ReplyDeletehe's been wrong about bonds all year, like most people, his central thesis is the same as the nets, as follows, from 10/1/10 letter:
“the reason I am less confident for the S&P 500 to break below support around 1040 is that I am increasingly convinced that, should the economy weaken again, the Fed will implement much more monetization.”
Currency Wars Are Necessary If All Else Fails
ReplyDeleteby Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
quote:
"The atomic bomb, of course, is quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. America has in effect issued an ultimatum to China and G20: either you stop this predatory behaviour and agree to some formula for global rebalancing, or we will deploy QE2 `a l’outrance’ to flood your economies with excess liquidity. We will cause you to overheat and drive up your wage costs. We will impose a de facto currency revaluation by more brutal and disruptive means, and there is little you can do to stop it. Pick your poison."
Leftback,
ReplyDeletethe way retail is talking it leads me to believe that a 3% pullback isn't going to phase them too much here, would support a run up to challenge the April highs by year end.
Thanks, Ben.. those bloomberg pieces can be misleading.. and at this point.. Buffet is a fade..
ReplyDeleteI love this quote from MM post today: "Similarly, those in the know aren't arguing about whether AUD is fair value but more just how many sigmas worth of deviation we are looking at here. TMM estimates range from 1.7 to 3. Hardly a great long term buy unless you really think the USD is going down the toilet, in which case there are better things to buy."
wonder is buffet is distributing his cop shares now that he is about break even on them...
ReplyDeleteAnyone else notice a set up for an ED on the hourly chart? One more push above 1168 anyone?
ReplyDeleteAlso the move off the EUR/USD highs does not look impulsive. One ore push higher in there as well?
meant to copy this line from Faber as well after he says he's more doubtful the market can get to 850-900, it's pretty clear where he stands so I wouldn't read too much into his comments:
ReplyDelete"The reason for this slightly more optimistic view is that on renewed asset market weakness quantitative easing is almost a certainty."
QE1 was to save the banks. QE2 is to save the system. To save the system is to crush all other systems. BB has his hand on the save button.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteWhat's QE3 gonna be for?
"The way retail is talking it leads me to believe that a 3% pullback isn't going to phase them too much here, would support a run up to challenge the April highs by year end."
ReplyDeleteAgreed entirely with this. The QE announcement may trigger something larger than 3%, but it will be bought.
I am not quite sure what your argument is about Faber, he is correct. You buy assets on the expectation of QE and then set yourself up for a stronger dollar and some rate rises.
Oh I know...
ReplyDeleteIt'll be to save all those "crushed" systems that QE2 brought about...
Problem solved...
"What's QE3 gonna be for?"
ReplyDeleteTo save the FED obviously... and prevent rates from running away.
Damn are those boys smart!
ReplyDeleteSimply pointing out Faber is really not bullish, if you read his letters all the way through you'll see he's in fact very cautious right now more than anything and moving forward so while he might state he's bullish in the public, his subscribers letters reveal something quite different. He stated over and over again in the last letter that he was reducing risk in equities, not buying them.
ReplyDeleteAs for his thesis....well, I don't argue with the Fed will save us all thinking anymore, you can't have a discussion with people that have made up their mind about this at this time, just like I doubt any of you argue with any religious zealots.
@Ra,
slight correction....QE1 maybe saved SOME banks, but
1. We still close a lot of banks almost every Friday
and
2. I'm not ready to call this movies end just yet, so maybe they saved the banks.....time will tell. I don't think it's out of the question within the next 5 years one of the big four goes up in smoke.
" . . .on renewed asset market weakness quantitative easing is almost a certainty."
ReplyDeleteasset depreciation not allowed under Bernanke's watch-
. . .and the mandate of price stability- are they really talking about houses and stocks?
or are they talking about food, staples and energy?
stocks are a choice- you take a risk- and you can lose (all of it)-
seems they have their priorities all backwards
"Simply pointing out Faber is really not bullish"
ReplyDeleteNor am I, which is why I am 30% long and not 300% long !!! But I will buy a substantial correction in equities.
So the Fed controls rates now as well? I think not, please review chart within this thread:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.safehaven.com/article/16281/you-still-believe-the-fed-can-stop-deflation
Leftback,
ReplyDeleteFaber is also anti-leverage, dude has been pounding the table on that since 08 "don't ever use leverage!"
"and the mandate of price stability- are they really talking about houses and stocks?"
ReplyDeletebeanie babies and baseball cards....er wait, those are stable either.
Ben
ReplyDeleteI think that's why the FDIC said they are guaranteeing all deposits. It's the only way to deal with a TBTF.
lol, the FDIC doesn't have enough money to cover all the deposits at the top four banks, let alone all the banks!
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteAfter QE2 the other CB's will come up with another reserve currency. They will not want the US controlling their outcomes anymore. Welcome to Rome.
Ben
ReplyDeleteI know but they get credit from the Treasury when they're short.
And who, pray tell, bails out treasury?
ReplyDeletethat's where all this leads, all the schemes come back to this, some might call it the "keynesian end-point"....some have, but that dude didn't have a PhD....
@McF
ReplyDelete"I don't think it's out of the question within the next 5 years one of the big four goes up in smoke..."
I'll go you one further and say that this entire charade is a step in the process so we can, in fact, get to that point...
Last man standing gets all the confetti...
Reminds me of a bunch of cowboys in a bar shooting at feet to get you to dance...
"After QE2 the other CB's will come up with another reserve currency. They will not want the US controlling their outcomes anymore."
ReplyDeletebut what of the 60 some odd trillion in dollar denominated debt? What do those creditors want back for that? A new currency?
b22-
ReplyDeletethe USG has been able to lever up at will
ambrose pritchard-evans on 9/27
ReplyDeleteShut Down the Fed (Part II)
"I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing.
"My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America."
THE FED (National Anthem)...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ42zxu94hE
and speaking of debt- what of possible austerity measures w/ a probable GOP takeover?
ReplyDelete(as an aside- that will give Obama plenty of cover for the next two years)
and Jerry Brown- can't see him losing to Meg Whitman (who is devoid of any personality)
ReplyDelete"the USG has been able to lever up at will"
ReplyDeletethis is trend extrapolation, people always default to physics when predicting social trends....iow "momentum will remain constant unless acted on by an outside force"
of course, the most certain aspect of social history is in fact dramatic change, here, try to extrapolate these:
It is 1886, Project the American railroad industry
It is 1970, Project the future of China
It is 1963, Project the cost of medical care in the U.S.
It is 1969, Project the US space program
and one for CV
It is 100 AD, Project the future of the Roman civilization.
"but what of the 60 some odd trillion in dollar denominated debt? What do those creditors want back for that?"
ReplyDelete---
Ummm... How about the "business end" of an American M1A1 Abrams tank for starters?
:-)
b22-
ReplyDeleteplease note my use of "has been" not "will be"
point being-
it "has been" the case so far
also- projection:
1990 Soviet Union
1914- Austro-Hungarian Empire
@McF
ReplyDelete"It is 100 AD, Project the future of the Roman civilization"
---
I'd say it's more like Rome AD 180-192 right now (because we have "Commodus the Magnificent" as Emperor)...
Going back to Faber... (and any notion that interest rates would rise anytime soon)...
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I'm wrong (or if something has materially changed since I last looked at it)...
But it seems to me that back in April/May, I'd posted something here about Blackrock having removed the interest rate swaps off the Maiden Lane portfolio it's handling for the wizards...
Sure, they could put these back on, but C'MON MAN... These things would blow sky high with even a 50 basis point move...
Rates AREN'T GOING UP...
Which makes me question Faber's logic there...
Faber has been bearish on bonds in general since 07ish, he's been really wrong about them. he's more a commodity/gold kinda dude, and has in general been very right about those, and about stocks.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteLast word on subject (for me)...
It is VERY difficult for me to get this chart out of my head...
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fundamental-question-for-investors-which-will-blink-first-bonds-or-stocks-2010-10
As soon as I can latch onto something that justifies that, then I'll expand my consciousness to encompass other schools of thought...
BI-FLATION I tell you...
ReplyDeleteThat's it!
CV,
ReplyDeletecan't we envision a situation where they both go down?
Impossible? We'll see about that.
RMFAO
ReplyDeleteYale Ph.D., And Former Fed Member Tells Obama To Pull A "Gordon Brown" And Sell All Of America's Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/yale-phd-and-former-fed-member-tells-obama-pull-gordon-brown-and-sell-all-americas-gold
"can't we envision a situation where they both go down?"
ReplyDeleteI'm just waiting for somebody in the FED to accidentally KEY the "divide by zero" function...
That ought to be a fun day...
aapl made a new high today.. can we just get to $300 already?
ReplyDeleteand now we've got YCS solidly below 16.. not just a quick tap but stuck..
ReplyDeletenew lows for vxx..
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteLooked at that chart. When it decides to revert it's going to get ugly.
*When doing correlation coefficient what is usually the better range? A fibo number? Or something even simpler?
interesting post here and onlooker commented:
ReplyDeletehttp://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/so-you-like-alan-grayson.html
Fed’s Hoenig continues to try and hold back the tide
ReplyDeleteWritten by Jamie Coleman
October 12, 2010 at 15:48 GMT
US data trends highly encouraging
Recovery has slowed but not faltered
Fed must focus on long-term goals, not short-term targets
Legitimate reasons to be cautious quantitative easing
Buying $500 bln in Treasuries may not even lower rates 10 bp
Dumping another trillion into the economy likely to have little impact on economy, stocks
Second round of QE could undermine Fed independence
Further QE risky, could lead to 4-5% inflation
Fed should consider ending reinvestment of maturing securities
Remove low rates for extended period commitment, hike rates to 1%
KC FED president Hoenig continues his quixotic quests to hold back the coming tide of quantitative ease. Good luck with that, Tom…
@karen
ReplyDeleteMaybe AAPL won't make it to $300?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1KqbDdmuE
meant to post this up yesterday:
ReplyDelete"Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show hedge funds and other large speculators are more bearish on the dollar than at any time in history, with bets on a decline exceeding those on a rise by 341,683 contracts as of Oct. 5."
LB
ReplyDeleteDidn't you say something about 2yr, TIPS and Gold getting sold at the same time?
even today.. i look at C and BAC and see nothing bullish in those charts..
ReplyDeletecheck the WMT candle... not bullish..
ReplyDeletewhats the matter Karen, don't you see the little QEII's inside the candles on those charts?
ReplyDeleteoh my.. the insider sales at lulu in september...
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteC reports next Monday... & BAC reports on Tuesday...
I've said many timess... It's been like clockwork about the last 5 quarters in a row to ramp these stocks into earnings reporting, then sell the news...
Like CRUDE THURSDAYS...
but we all really know it's THE ELECTIONS...
ReplyDeleteOther blogs told me so...
DR is blunt this afternoon: This is a market completely based on hope. Throw fundamental investment principles out the window. It’s now all about how the Fed can manage to inflate asset prices now that fiscal policy has tested its limits with the voting public.
ReplyDeleteCV.. this will make you smile:
ReplyDeletehttp://devour.com/video/she-is-a-thing-of-beauty/
karen, use the word religion instead of hope, not only is it a more accurate description, but it really gets under the skin of those that have placed all their faith in the Feds...which is fun.
ReplyDeleteNot only do those evil corporations ship jobs overseas, now it turns out that they're trying to buy the election.
ReplyDeleteInvesting and the Irrational Mind!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/webinars-archived/investing-and-the-irrational-mind.html
tradefast
ReplyDeleteisi degraff technician on cnbc - last week he said spx 1220 year end - currently, he is saying need pullback to work off overbot condition
ben, at 12:44, i follow ya : )
ReplyDelete@karen (12:44)
ReplyDeleteFantastic! :-)
It is supposedly Wes Anderson directed.. Life Aquatic, the Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox.. I could the connection.. : )
ReplyDelete@Obama
ReplyDeleteThanks Barry...
Feel free to chime in anytime with your insights...
I, for one, am a citicen who constantly needs to be reminded how to THINK (being as I'm incapable of doing it on my own)...
@karen
ReplyDeleteLove the music on that too...
we need a thought czar
ReplyDeletemust click:
ReplyDeleteStimulus Package: http://twitpic.com/2x19g9/full
Quantitative Easing: http://twitpic.com/2x19jj/full
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Yields on Mexican government securities fell Tuesday at the Bank of Mexico's weekly auction as investors continue to expect interest rates to stay low for an extended period of time.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteWell on the subject of CZARS... At least we know ol' Barry is auditioning for his next gig...
http://thepeoplescube.com/images/Czars_Dancing_200.gif
all I got was a cheerleader on those links.
ReplyDelete3 Year Auction Closes At Lowest Bid To Cover Since February, Highest Primary Dealer Participation Since February 2009
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/cYMaom
You guys are making it difficult for me to cheer you up!
ReplyDeleteJim Grant: Here Is Where The Fed Went Wrong http://read.bi/a67nn6
sorry... i probably posted that Jim Grant already.. yes.. i did..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI'm not in a bad mood today...
But if you REALLY want to cheer me up, link me to the site that says the DOW is down 4,000 points...
Administration lifts 6-month oil drilling freeze
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_drilling_moratorium
Translation: We're behind in the polls in some states
That CAGEY Obama... He know JUST WHEN drilling is "safe" and "unsafe"...
Man - I have to get me a prescription for some of those SMART PILLS he wolfs down by the fistful...
getting a real kick out of all the "it's all going to end badly" chatter of late.....what do they mean "going to"
ReplyDeletelets see, has it already ended badly for the 17% counted in U-6....check
has it already ended badly for the 1 in 7 families on food stamps....check
should I keep going?
OT:
ReplyDeleteI have to come out with it...I think I have an addiction to popsicles, no joke.
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/overnight-china-news-and-fed-weighs-on-morning-trade/
ReplyDeleteI'm getting a kick of how the market avoided being down 1% as the FOMC minutes get released. Could've ended up down 3-5% after the release. Thanks PD's.
ReplyDeleteben, i'm not surprised.. cold and sweet seems to do it for you! frou frou drinks!?
ReplyDeleteugh.. GS just wrecked my day..
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThe definition of "It all will end badly" is when a banker (any banker) doesn't get a bonus check...
A bunch of leading hedge fund managers has just published a collection of essays looking at the serious possibility that the recent financial unpleasantness was just an amuse-bouche for the main event – the really ghastly crash that awaits us all when governments start debasing the currency, when stock and bond markets go into extreme meltdown, when sovereigns themselves go belly-up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-gathering-storm-book-2010-10
when you see people on the street with cardboard signs that say...
ReplyDelete"WILL CREATE DERIVATIVE SIV's FOR FOOD"
Then you'll know it all ended badly...
@karen
ReplyDeletehow TF long does "a storm" take to gather anyway?
from ZH: Shorts Refuse To Capitulate
ReplyDeleteChart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/Short%20Interest.jpg
"The definition of "It all will end badly" is when a banker (any banker) doesn't get a bonus check..."
ReplyDeleteSo I guess all the banks that have been closed in the last three years have already visited the "it will end badly" path.
my point was....it's already really bad for a lot of people, they aren't waiting for the next shoe to drop.
do you all have a lot of people outside around you with signs asking for food or money?
ReplyDeleteI see them every day all summer here, a couple key spots where people always are, I know you aren't supposed to do it but if I'm stopped I always give whatever cash I have. The guys/girls with the military story make me very sad.
OK, people, this isn't the end of days for the Treasury market, but I have been warning about these auctions at these levels:
ReplyDeleteA week of heavy supply gets off to a bumpy start. Coverage of 2.95 at today's $32 billion 3-year note auction is the lowest level since the February auction.
Buyside participation was weak with dealers taking down an over sized 59% of the auction for their largest share since January last year. In another sign of weakness, the stop-out rate of 0.569 percent is 1/2 basis point over the 1:00 ET bid.
The issue's record low coupon of 0.500 percent is a reminder how much rates are coming down. For comparison, the coupon on the April issue is 1.750 percent. The Treasury auctions $21 billion of 10-year notes tomorrow.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteyeah, anything cold...I'm drawn to it, I'm the 30 year old getting the icee every time I go to WaWa, or some frozen vanilla something when I go to the bookstore.
CV, this might be up your alley..
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.afraidtotrade.com/smoothed-breadth-and-market-dead-air-internal-divergences/
All those riots and protests in Greece and France are coming to a neighborhood near you.
ReplyDeleteBut it'll take a few years.
hey.. just found out i can get buzz and banter free from e*trade but it's not launching when i press launch.. hope they work out the bugs on that..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-city-pension-accounting-2010-10
ReplyDeleteYou can get "buzz-n-banter" for free here.
ReplyDeleteif these minutes move this market i will be disgusted.. it really shouldn't matter..
ReplyDeleteDL, you know i just talk to myself here.. and i won't be able to post and buzz&banter.. lucky them.. i've had the service before and loved it..
ReplyDeleteleftback,
ReplyDeleteisn't tomorrow a POMO, no mention of how that could have impacted today's action?
This link might be worth a look:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig
If we're not all SHOCKED by the fed minutes, then we'll be SHOCKED by the intel earnings.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteThe "biggest" DIVERGENCE I'm looking at right now shows up on the 60 minute charts...
I put up a SPY chart about a week ago here that showed the amplitude peaks and what TIMEFRAME I might be anticipating a correction to occur...
You remember... I was talking about TIME (not PRICE) and you made a comment...
Anyway - we're now within 6 trading days of probably needing some kind of move to occur...
It could happen at any moment, but I don't mind being a little short here...
I'm too lazy right now... But tomorrow morning, I'll put that chart back up (because it's the main thing I've been looking at for the past 3-4 weeks that's nagging at me that this market could possibly stay buoyant for a little while longer)...
That, and, of course... THE ELECTIONS... ror...
@DL
ReplyDeleteIn a HFT world, why do they do FED MINUTES?
I mean... by now... we should be down to FED MICROSECONDS...
Right?
any top step video today?
ReplyDelete1st ~10 minutes after release of minutes is a headfake, you kno' right?
ReplyDelete@72
ReplyDeletekaren says: I kno right?
cv says" I kno right?
LB (pretending to be CV's ex girlfriend) says: I kno right?
ben.. i posted the top step video already!!! (1:33)
ReplyDeletehttp://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/overnight-china-news-and-fed-weighs-on-morning-trade/
my bad, my mouth was hot around then.....thanks!
ReplyDeletegld isn't buying the QE yet.. crude either.. eem either.. only XLF and $bkx !!
ReplyDeletei wonder why : )
Didn't BUD FOX chew on popsicles?
ReplyDeletegold isn't buying the QE yet?
ReplyDeleteWhat's it been doing over the last month?
oop, i spoke too soon.. gold, crude, EM, jumping on the band wagon..
ReplyDeleteoh, you don't want to chew the sticks, knew a guy that had problems as a result of doing that.
ReplyDeleteCV (pretending to be LB's ex girlfriend) says: I kno, right?
ReplyDeleteso from top step...sub 20 VIX could stay, point out that all sell-offs are weak...
ReplyDeleteyup...
LB would like a nice rally in the tech stocks into the close here (the PUMP) followed by a crappy set of results from Intel (the DUMP).
ReplyDeleteall I can say is...
ReplyDeleteTHE PROBLEMS that resulted from chewing on the sticks, were probably NOT NEARLY as bad as the problems that CAUSED the act of chewing on the sticks...
If you know what I mean...
Is gold a QE story? I doubt I need to explain my opinion, so here's another:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/is-gold-a-dollar-phenom/
Bad results from intel?
ReplyDeleteImpossible.
BTE, BTE, BTE
Karen said: "i've had the service before and loved it.."
ReplyDeleteThat's what we understand..
@DL
ReplyDeleteWTE from Intel means that all of QE2 will go into supporting INTC stock...
I heard it from Tepper...
BUY!
LB is crabby. This is what he had to deal with at futbol last night:
ReplyDeleteNYC Hail Storm
aapl ever so close to $300 now..
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that Tepper video.
Well - that "penny stock" that I've hel onto for 4 years now is up 46.8% today...
ReplyDeleteSo I have that going for me...
wow, that's some big hail,....hope you had that new beamer under a roof man.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said before, I do think that Bernanke is going to keep flooding the system with money until the price of oil becomes a political liability.
ReplyDeletewell, like him or not DT really made some waves when he went on CNBC, that's gotta be one of the most talked about interviews of the last few years.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking this is going to end up being a FUN next... about... 10 days...
ReplyDeleteFirst we have to put Andy under his desk at 1174...
Then the FUN will start? You know... THE FUN
well, Neely is long and strong as of right now
ReplyDeleteto be fair that is only for hourly traders, though if the upside target is 1200 I'm not sure why it isn't for weekly traders.
ReplyDeleteI also think that if we get a Republican president in 2013, the pressure on the Fed to tighten money will be greater than will be the case if Obama is re-elected.
ReplyDeleteas I said Friday I was interested in going balls to the wall short with Andy on that trade but I doubt it at this point, just going to have to sit this one out. The 1,200 target is just too high of a probability.
ReplyDeleteSo many retail suckers are going to get reamed in the next six months, but they could have a little fun first with their unrealized gains.
@LB
ReplyDeleteThe hail (& lightning) delayed the start of the JETS-VIKINGS game by 45 minutes...
It was bad, because the sports announcers on ESPN had to "cover" (and they weren't ready)...
They were tossing POLITICS into it by the end...
It was UGLY... Worthy of it's own C'MON MAN!...
ok, see you all tomorrow....g.l. with your trades.
ReplyDeleteFucking Tom Jackson was talking about how Rex Ryan wants the jets to win the Super Bowl so he can go meet Barack Obama...
ReplyDeleteI mean... FUCK... That's the C'MON MAN of the year!
Oh no wait...
ReplyDeleteDL's (2:24) just got the C'MON MAN of the year...
@McF
ReplyDeleteI'm going to disagree... At least in this way...
I think that within 6 days we get a meaningful correction... IOW - we get the meaningful correction BEFORE 1200 (if that ends up getting hit)...
Just a timing thing...
Well there's one good thing. The Fed minuetes didn't reverse the 30min 3LB. Phew.
ReplyDelete“I think that within 6 days we get a meaningful correction”
ReplyDeleteI agree. But that’s what I thought 6 days ago.
72bat
ReplyDeleteThe first 10min eh?
DL, I beg you to read this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-explains-qe2-using-bernanke-chief-horticulturalist
also.. just did a chart of FXI with JJC overlay... another lockstep correlation.
@DL
ReplyDeleteWell... You were only 6 days off...
So you have that going for you :-)
K @ 2:37
ReplyDeleteI took a quick look at it.
can i have a drink now???
ReplyDeleteK @ 2:39
ReplyDeleteIt cures arthritis, among other things:
http://www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/Drinking-Alcohol-May-Halt-Arthritis-Research-Finds_3353
The first 10min eh?
ReplyDeleteThat was a piece of mickey-taking....
I kno, right?
okay, Ben, I'm eating ice cold watermelon chunks with fresh lime.. better for you than popsicles! oh, my, they just melt in my mouth.. I think i'll find a use for the leftover juice, too.. but after noon, for heaven's sake.
ReplyDeleteLots of data to show protective effects of moderate alcohol. Several protective cellular mechanisms are activated by modest levels of alcohol.
ReplyDeleteThe trick is to stop at the right time and not to drink all the time ... higher levels of alcohol over longer periods of exposure promote inflammatory processes.
as if today wasn't miserable enuf.. now my email won't work..
ReplyDeletewill aapl at 300 be the equivalent of ringing the bell?
LB @ 2:46
ReplyDeleteI'll drink to that.
TBT BITCHEZ...
ReplyDelete"Lots of data to show protective effects of moderate alcohol. "
ReplyDeleteSo LB has read, it's not like we are a brain scientist or anything.