Sunday, September 12, 2010

Sunday Evening Post & Morning Audibles

Good Evening Capitalists*,

The focus this weekend was on the Gold Market. I wish there were some great trading ideas there, but I could not find one. While the overall pattern looks like a bearish rising wedge with continued RSI divergence on the both the Monthly and Weekly scale, it's difficult to advocate a big bearish trade just yet. It looks to be in a technical "no man's land" for the next several weeks. I would much rather jump on the short train when this market first displays some sort of "impulsion" lower or can break below some supports. Otherwise, it just feels like you're fighting a band of lunatics who are convinced that Gold is the second reserve currency of the world and the only true hedge in a world that has gone mad, mad, mad.

The Dollar witnessed some bottoming action last week but now needs to explode higher. First and second levels of support are 82.40 and 81.41 for this week. We would be a dip buyer this week looking to use those levels as "stop points" on new length. A close below 81.41 would take us out of all DXY length.

The S&P 500 looks a bit toppy heading into the weekend. I'm expecting a pullback this week but think that 1065 should be support on the Cash S&P 500. Any break below 1040 should send all length to the sideline. We remain 20% of a Max Short position, looking to add to shorts on a break above 1130 or a break below 1040.


*Did you know that the word capitalism has taken on such a negative connotation that some conservative Texan educators have decided to drop the word from textbooks in favor of the more palatable term "Free Enterprise?"





The board removed the word "capitalism" from the standards, mandating that the term for that economic system be called "free enterprise" throughout the standards. Board members such as Terri Leo and Ken Mercer charged that "capitalism" is a negative term used by "liberal professors in academia."
I'm not sure what the greater "issue" is there: the fact that there some Texas crazies who get to monkey around with Social Studies textbooks; or, the idea that "Capitalism" is perceived to be a "naughty" word.

Interesting times....

Football Thought: How about them Texans?



Market Update 12 Sep 10


---

I'm only going to add, this morning, that YES - It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World... (and to think, back in the day, they were all actually "searching" for the BIG "W" to end their woes)...


Now we have the BIG "O" (same as it ever was)...







213 comments:

  1. Thanks Andy.
    I shorted gold on the break of the channel from 28Jul but it has stopped dead at the 50fib back of the last swing so no mans land for me now too. Tighten stops and see what happens.

    I agree 100% with your analysis of S&P and a pullback week for risk.
    Go Bucky!!

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  2. I still have S&P as a possible big diamond reversal pattern which if we confirm break long takes us to 1250-1300. Below 1040 and its 920 next.

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  3. Nice little rammer jammer on the open. Wonder what the "news" is?

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  4. Well, the story is not "how about them Texans"

    Not when the opposing quarterback is 40/57 with a quarterback rating of 110 and 433 yards.

    The story is the Colts, apparently as ever, have no defense against the run once again.

    I know Peyton may go down as the greatest quarterback, but he reminds me of Archie. Very talented quarterback on a mediocre team.

    Why in the world doesn't the genius (Polian) have a defense? Can you imagine what Peyton would have accomplished with a defensive team equal to his brother's team's defense?

    ...Love the commercial where Eli locks Peyton in the closet...

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  5. Perhaps that the Basel restrictions don't even start still 2013 so the banksters have a few more years to rape and pillage. The Eurozone banks have the most fund raising to do.
    I have seen this movie before, big jump in Asia Sunday night and then US opens and we go down all week.

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  6. Thanks, Andy. Interesting as always. I think Bucky holds the key right now. If that push was impulsive, Bucky should be ready to rocket at any moment, and everything else will fall in to place. Here is the 'news' of the week. Plenty of things for financial 'journalists' to explain the latest move.

    Date/Report/Consensus/Previous

    Sept. 14 Retail sales 0.3% 0.4%
    Sept. 14 Retail sales ex-autos 0.5% 0.2%
    Sept. 15 Empire state index 7.5 7.1
    Sept. 15 Industrial production 0.1% 1.0%
    Sept. 16 Jobless claims 458,000 451,000
    Sept. 16 Producer price index 0.8% 0.2%
    Sept. 16 Core PPI 0.1% 0.3%
    Sept. 16 Philly Fed 0.0 -7.7
    Sept. 17 Consumer price index 0.3% 0.3%
    Sept. 17 Core CPI 0.1% 0.1%
    Sept. 17 Consumer sentiment 69.5 68.9

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  7. @Nic 8:20

    I was thinking the same thing about this movie.


    *Anyone else having issues with blogger tonight?*

    ReplyDelete
  8. No problems with blogger for me

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  9. Thanks for the 'capital' summary and charts, Andy.. I second the no man's land and mad mad mad world.

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  10. CV was 5-7-2 (two "push" results) on NFL this weekend...

    However, 4 out of my 5 winners were high unit picks (which is why I use the strategy of UNIT PICKS in the first place - to identify games that offer potential VALUE in wagering)...

    Overall LOSERS

    Panthers (-$110)
    Broncos (-$330)
    Bucs (-$110)
    Colts (-$0)
    Bills (-$110) - this was a cheesy loss because of an on purpose safety that the Bills took at the end of the game.
    Raiders (-$110)
    49ers (-$440)

    Total LOSS = $1,210

    WINS

    Steelers ($+400)
    Lions (+$500)
    Pats (+300)
    Packers (+300)

    Total WIN = $1,500

    Net Total = +$290

    I'll put up game writeups for the two Monday Night Games later...

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  11. Forget about "Goldilocks"...

    I'm going to start calling this market the "Hansel & Gretel" market...

    Closing the 1120 gap (on SPX right now)... But since 1040, lots of fresh new gaps remain...

    Breadcrumbs...

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  12. FWIW

    http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

    Max pain on SPY at 105 now.

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  13. 3 Out Of 3 Analysts Agree: Basel III Will Guarantee Their Bonuses For 9 Years In A Row, As Banks Win Again

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  14. Basel III is BS. NINE years?!? It still doesn't do anything about toxic assets. That was a wasted weekend conference.

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  15. Today is so UFB that I almost stayed in bed : )

    " Stock futures have been bid higher in response to big gains among Europe’s bourses, which have been bolstered by news of an increased eurozone GDP forecast from the European Commission and the absence of adverse capital requirements for banks under Basel III. Meanwhile, the dollar is down sharply against competing currencies as early traders show an increased tolerance for risk. "

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  16. @karen

    Let me simplify...

    Stocks are higher on... THE ECONOMY - ror

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  17. while there are a few different ways to calc max pain, oddly enough we've been at 105 spy for almost three weeks now, never went up.

    I'm looking to short the small caps on this bounce, $RUT is likely to see at least some rejection here at the 200 day.

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  18. Things that make me go huh? on this rally: JNK, TBT, TLT.. in other words, where is the yield follow thru?

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  19. M2 Surges By $30 Billion In Past Week To Highest Ever, Even As Monetary Base Declines

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/m2-surges-30-billion-past-week-highest-ever-even-monetary-base-declines

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  20. It's good to be a "Harrisburg-ian"

    http://business-news.thestreet.com/business/2010/09/13/a/694905007-state-to-aid-harrisburg/

    by fiftybagger
    on Mon, 09/13/2010 - 05:50
    #577988

    Yeah, you can bet that Gubnor got a little call on Sunday from DC. And how about this little gem?

    "The state will also give Harrisburg $350,000 in grants and a $500,000 loan to hire Chicago-based financial consultant Scott Balice Strategies LLC to develop options for financial recovery, potentially including the sale and lease of assets such as parking garages and meters."

    Obongo's pals? Why don't they pay me 3/4 of a million bucks saving 100k, I could do it. Everyone's pay? Cut in half. Didn't fix it? Cut in half again.

    We are doomed

    Login or register to post comments

    by fiftybagger
    on Mon, 09/13/2010 - 06:26
    #578010

    FYI:



    Linda D. Thompson is the current mayor of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. She assumed office on January 4, 2010. Thompson is Harrisburg's first female and first black mayor.[1]

    Born and raised in Harrisburg, Thompson graduated from Harrisburg High School in 1979.[2] She went on to attend Howard University in Washington, DC where she received a B.S. in Communications. While in Washington, Thompson interned at the United States Department of Justice.

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  21. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied at Monday's open, as major banks gained after historic new banking reforms were not as strict as some had initially expected.
    http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/13/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

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  22. food for thot: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/the-money’s-gotta-go-somewhere/

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  23. anyone know who Invictus is over at TBP.. he sure seems to be drinking the kool aid when it comes to the jobs data.. from his recent article: "Although we experienced the worst job-loss recession since the Great Depression, this has not been as job-less a recovery as many would have us believe. It is demonstrably better than the past two recessions as measured from the trough."

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times-yup/

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  24. No... HERE is "food" for thot (last sentence)...

    "And forget about rice – that’s for poor people. The new Chinese consumer eats meat."

    ---

    It takes 7x the grain (pre pound) to feed and maintain a mature cow, than it does to feed a human...

    Thus, where does all the acreage, and water come from to breed and maintain livestock for all these meat loving chinese...

    Want chicken? How about bird flu...

    Humans are out of their freaking minds... Hey Barry! nice yo see your stocks are doing good though...

    I hope they taste good...

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  25. @karen

    he probably just listens to Erin Burnett...

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  26. that analysis on M2 = weak

    nor does it really reveal what the trend is....details though..., sort of like people that claim money has to go somewhere, because in their minds there are only two outcomes, inflation, or less inflation than was targeted.


    Aren't the potent directors arguments getting old to anyone else? Anyone?

    "I believe if the authorities introduce enough draconian measures they can slow down the housing market in Hong Kong. (And in Singapore and in China)"

    sorry, Peter, alls we gots in this world is credit, you keep confusing that with money....and the decoupling story... that was just as funny in 2008.

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  27. Invictus is a broker at Morgan I think.

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  28. if 113 spy doesn't stop this rally, i give up : )

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  29. two snippets from http://www.annaly.com/blog/

    Anyway, in our post, we suggested that ultra-low bond yields weren’t a function of overvaluation, rather they are a rational reflection of inflation expectations.

    Therefore, we aren’t in a bubble, but we are in a weak, disinflationary economic environment.

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  30. lol @ that jobs post...what is today, weak anlaysis day where we really try our best to make an argument using maybe a 1/4 of the relevant data?

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  31. I really like this tradeyouwayout guy that Nic posted..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZQRfb9RsRo&feature=player_embedded

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  32. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/09/13/three-signs-its-truly-a-jobless-recovery/

    Three signs it's truly a jobless recovery

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  33. PIMCO

    El-Erian: Though Europe’s banks are getting more transparent, its sovereign risk spreads remain high: there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

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  34. what is also fascinating on SPY.. falling volume.. If you have the CMF indicator.. you will really be scratching your head..

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  35. WTF are those labels, a nested i/ii to the upside? lol. I may not have a lot of confidence in any count right now but those aren't impulse waves....

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  36. Karen,

    10:27...and yet Lowry's says that their indicators show that we remain in a cyclical bull market and there is underlying accumulation/demand.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Tax Wars
    Washington Is Bracing for a Historic Battle Over U.S. Tax Law. Here's What You Should Do Now

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704644404575481903960961386.html

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  38. karen, per that video, I don't think he has his labels right but if we are in a wave iv right now you are more likely going to see 1150 instead of 1130....

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  39. Have we moved from hokey to charade?

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  40. ben, you mean 1220.. seriously.. if this inv h&s plays out..

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  41. i swear bac pulled off a miracle today after those two black candles..

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  42. @Bruce

    "Three signs it's truly a jobless recovery"...

    Sign #1 - Person 1 (private sector worker): "I'm out of work"

    Sign #2 - Person 2 (blue district union worker): "I'm still getting paid, but I don't know what for - oh yeah - my VOTE"

    Sign #3 - Obama - "Hey Gibbs - get on the tube and tell everyone about how we're in a recovery"

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  43. a new high! and where is it to go from here? back to the 2008 ?? $79.44

    makes less sense now than it did then!!! i am in shock..

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  44. @karen

    I don't have to pull out that chart again to show how many DOW stocks are near ALL TIME HIGHS again do I?

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  45. no, 1150, people are jumping the gun with any calls in the 1200-1300 range....way ahead of themselves imo.

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  46. BTW.. i hate, yes, hate, this bogger/blogspot.. why does it keep removing my "select profile" and making me click Post Comment so many times?? seriously, i'm going to lose it. LOL

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  47. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trading-against-90-lose-contrarian-cot-index-and-retail-positioning-analysis

    yeah, CAT, lol.

    I'm not short that, only RUT right now...we'll see what happens, using my turn date for my fibo work again, which was 9/12 +/- 2 days.

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  48. after reading about the super bull COT reports....I'd suggest just trolling the web....it would seem bulls had a fire lit under their ass over the weekend and the sentiment is THICK!

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  49. Is anyone else getting bad data on the CBOE PC ratio?

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  50. Ra I show it at .90 as of 9:30, the rest of my data is just blank right now for some reason.

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  51. @McF (10:42)

    "I'd suggest just trolling the web....it would seem bulls had a fire lit under their ass over the weekend and the sentiment is THICK!"

    Last week was very slim volume... It's likely that many did not participate, but are now enthused...

    Maybe they're jumping in here... I'm standing clear for now...

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  52. VIX 21.05...

    Remember that WEEKLY BB chart I put up last week...

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  53. looks like uup is headed back to the basement.. or hell

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  54. well CV, one thing is for sure, it certainly doesnt' appear that many are eager to do any selling, that much is clear.

    best to operate small here in either direction...

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  55. yeah that chart looks like shit (UUP)

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  56. @karen

    UUP "looks" bad... But all in all, it's just at a 50% retrace from the move off the summer low (with a big gap to fill)...

    23.64 would be a 61.8% retrace...

    Not looking good if you're holding SEPTEMBER calls...

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  57. from a wave perspective the dollar needs to get off its ass....like, now.

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  58. This doesn't make them solvent: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Big U.S. banks won't likely have to raise capital to meet the new Basel rules after the world's central bankers decided to give banks nearly a decade to comply with them.

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  59. Basel = more distractions to make you perform subjective trades, much like the election meme, there is no way you can look at this information without drawing subjective conclusions.

    Isn't that what we ARENT supposed to do as traders?

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  60. @McF

    Yeah, one thing about that is it might be seeing a DEATH CROSS (50 over 200 to downside)...

    Though what the hell? SPX "death crossed" back in early July and is up 12% since then -lol

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  61. alright, I'm going to be in one serious shit mood by 4 pm if we just hover here the rest of the day.

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  62. yeah I saw some people death crossing out the dollar last week, suppose they slept through all the buzz about the market death cross, I mean...it was two full months ago....so that's understandable.

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  63. @McF

    As TRADERS... I thought we were supposed to simply BUY BUY BUY into the two months before the elections...

    Isn't that why the stock market is up right now?

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  64. Isn't Basel the butler from Austin Powers?

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  65. Doug Kass, of the hedge fund SeaBreeze Partners, had already gotten to this one, having written recently that "the equity market…has morphed into a roulette-like casino setting in which risk is taken off and put on like the ball that falls into either black or red slots. And, as the U.S.stock market has been totally correlated—you either win or lose depending on the color you bet on."

    Watching HP and Dell (DELL) scrap for the right to buy data-storage firm 3Par (PAR)–a contest that sent 3Par's market value from $600 million to $3.1 billion in 10 days–was like seeing a couple of wealthy men of leisure vie, with gifts and promises of material comfort, for the affections of a starlet.

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204398504575477672361094224.html?mod=BOL_hps_dc#articleTabs%3Darticle

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  66. it would appear that larger dividend payers are a giant underperform today, if I were inclined to be long i'd rather roll with higher beta stocks at this point or just an index bet which would make the most sense given that almost all stocks are trending the same direction in any given day.

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  67. A good ROTH synopsis:

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204398504575477690982318122.html?mod=BOL_article_full_popemail

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  68. Hello Peeps
    Karen, the only thing with David at tradeyourwayout is you don't get the bitch fights like Daneric and Kenny. Otherwise he is cute ;)

    No one cuter than AndyT tho - Love the analysis this week

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  69. AT,

    thanks much for the gold charts this weekend, those were solid charts, same with the dollar charts, that 81.41 close is muy importante

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  70. @McF

    "Basel" is the inn owner from Fawlty Towers...

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  71. what did Andy call 1131, the ultra pivot? : )

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  72. @McF/karen

    so I guess it's not really a "stock pickers" market after all - lol

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  73. David will have that on his site with more visitors, if you are as big as Dan and Kenny and you do e-wave you are promised to get trolls that come around and knock wave just for the sake of knocking wave....it would seem the one tool that people love to hate the most, if he were more popular he'd be getting balls about that nested 1-2 count, it's schloppy.

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  74. my little miner is up 5.5% today..

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  75. are we going to get to 1130 on another gap, is that the deal, no price objectives are met without a gap?

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  76. so Ben, on my NXG that we talked about last week, see the volume there today? nearly 1.2 million shares since the open..

    ReplyDelete
  77. @mcf (11:18)

    I'm going to put up a chart on that... Just CV doodling...

    ReplyDelete
  78. For all you 1116-1140 zone lovers...

    NEW CHART IN THREAD

    Kind of messy... But it "continues" along that EXPANDING WEDGE from 1065 theme that CV has re-visited from time to time this summer...

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  79. for the most part the charts and sentiment indicators are lininig up again for a nice drop.

    will I go more short than the small $rut?

    nah...

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  80. Karen,

    it's all about that 2.80 level on NXG, seems like its using the 50 as support now.

    ReplyDelete
  81. @McF/Nic

    "for the most part the charts and sentiment indicators are lininig up again for a nice drop."

    ---

    How about THIS for a nice drop?...

    NEW CHART IN THREAD

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  82. CV,

    it would be nice to see us right around that 1140 zone on your chart, not quite getting to 1150, that would crush some people for sure, they'd take a quick trip back down to 1060-1040.

    ReplyDelete
  83. rtopstep

    $CL_F *AL-QAEDA MILITANTS BOMB #GAS PIPELINE IN S. YEMEN, XINHUA SAYS $$

    ReplyDelete
  84. and yes, the 87 comparison, not sure if that's tradeable but it's interesting. As I'm to understand it that was the last time so many stocks were all trending in the same direction like they are right now.

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  85. CV.. did you come up with that yourself?!

    ReplyDelete
  86. Socionomics post from BR:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/the-hemline-index/

    fun stuff, EWI has much more detailed info on these sort of things...more than the hemline a better correlation to market prices are the colors of clothes that become popular...remember PINK during the 03-07 run?

    how about NEON during our huge cycle bull?

    ReplyDelete
  87. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  88. But Ben, "“Hemlines are all over the place, very much like the stock market,” Burke, president of Robert Burke Associates in New York, said in an interview."

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGYEZ6MeoLv4

    I think your colors correlation is more applicable these days.

    ReplyDelete
  89. the issues with Harrisburg not being able to make debt payments started this time last year...magically here we are with another "bailout"....any takers on how long until their next bailout?

    ReplyDelete
  90. @McF

    "any takers on how long until their next bailout?"

    Yeah - probably about the time that the "Chicago based" firm assigned to handle this cashes their last check...

    ReplyDelete
  91. that 12% move comparison.. it is just beyond coincidental that it ends up at 1131.. I mean, if 1987 never happened.. 1131 would still be waving a us on the 2010 chart..

    ReplyDelete
  92. colors are easier to flip quick as well, different dyes for clothes are easier than an entirely new product line.

    watch it on cars as well, I believe socionomics institute is looking for green/gray/brown car colors to get more popular over the next 5 years....less reds/other bright colors.

    ReplyDelete
  93. drinking my first soda right now in months....tastes funny.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @karen

    to be fair... The move in 1987 actually started earlier...

    I just referenced the point from July 1st...

    I had that chart up last month (around the August highs)... I keep it nearby...

    ReplyDelete
  95. I can't figure out why this sell recommendation (China Agritech Inc. (CAGC) shares declined more than 16% after Chardan Capital Markets cut the fertilizer maker to sell from neutral) had such and effect on this fast money stock..

    ReplyDelete
  96. I shouldn't be sitting at my desk humming:

    It's just another manic monday....


    somebody virtual slap me already.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Was anybody watching the SKINS-Dallas game last night?

    At one point, (during "timeout" breaks)... NBC shows a live camera shot of the White House...

    Then dissolves to a shot inside the stadium of LeBron James in a skybox... He's drinking something out of a straw and wearing an OBAMA "Hope" t-shirt...

    I started raughing out roud...

    ReplyDelete
  98. About time:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/huge-first-high-frequency-trading-firm-is-charged-with-quote-stuffing-and-manipulation-2010-9

    ReplyDelete
  99. @Nic

    They'll only "charge" the firms that they want to fold up, cut into pieces, and sell to GS & JPM...

    ReplyDelete
  100. Oh...

    No "kudos" to CV over the weekend for aggregate WINNINGS in NCAA & NFL picks... (results above)...

    Tough crowd!

    ReplyDelete
  101. high speed rain in CA? I'll believe it when I see it:

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aK7V9c3LYem4

    ReplyDelete
  102. Nic, that is akin to the SEC going after Martha Stewart while Bernard Madoff reigned...

    ReplyDelete
  103. Ben, try refrigerated pelegrino with a squeeze of lime! do not drink soda!! besides, soda cuts into your frou frou drink calorie allotment.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @karen

    was that a "high speed reign" (like Ca?)... :-)

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  105. yeah, you guys are right, I hadn't had a coke in about 4 months until today, now I just feel nasty.

    ReplyDelete
  106. http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/spy-intraday-ascending-triangle-price-target-hit/

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  107. forgive me my typos, as i forgive yours, CV : )

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  108. and lead us not into temptation...

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  109. Which one of you was it that told CV he was "crazy" about a month or two ago when I said I liked the idea of buying silver coins?

    ReplyDelete
  110. mrtopstep

    $ES_F #futures [10:24:58 AM] $GS bot about 20K SPZ/SPU #spreads @-4.90 turns them bid , currently -4.90 / -4.85 2K / 7.5K
    27 minutes ago via TweetDeck

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  111. pretty good pics first week of the season CV.

    couple teams looked really good yesterday...couple not so much.

    I'm still buzzing about Michigans QB,those were TECMO stats he put up, almost better than TECMO.

    ReplyDelete
  112. @McF

    The only one I got "terribly" wrong was the SF-Sea game...

    If that had gone the other way, I would have had a monster week...

    ReplyDelete
  113. I'm going to put up picks for the games tonight, but I'm going to roll up my winnings for the week and not lay any more money out...

    The thing I don't like about tonight is that the BOOKIES made their nut yesterday when the late games mostly went their way...

    Huge money was bet on the 49ers, & Dallas...

    They also escaped PAYOUTS on the Cardinals when the Rams came in and pushed...

    ReplyDelete
  114. @Amen

    ROR - That looks like how CV's SURVIVOR CAPITAL ff team fared...

    My other two leagues I'm behind at the moment, but I have some guys going tonight that might turn those into wins...

    ReplyDelete
  115. yes, I was one of the people that thought the 9ers were going to be good (better) this season.

    they looked awful though, Philly looked better than I expected, especially once Vick got in there.

    Also, holy arian foster batman

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  116. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/13/the-monday-bull-market-resumes.html

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  117. Calvin Johnson got robbed yesterday imo, that's a crappy rule there, he caught that pass.

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  118. Tonight, the public is mostly taking the Ravens and the points... But the line has moved down from Jets (-3) to Jets (-2)... Which means that Vegas is "chasing" the line...

    They "hooked" the early Jets bettors, and now want to even the sides out... Technically, the RAVENS are slight favorites here because they're a road team, and the HOME TEAM usually gets a 3 point edge on the spread...

    ReplyDelete
  119. @McF

    Yeah, it's more crappy because CV has megatron on some of his FF teams...

    The Lions still "covered" tho (and won me $500)...

    ReplyDelete
  120. Arain Foster...

    Yeah... That was hard to keep quiet in the fantasy drafts...

    I know both Andy & I were about to take him in the next round of the fantasy draft... But Ba Ba Booey stepped in front of us...

    Booey is an experienced player...

    ReplyDelete
  121. In the 2nd game tonight, I like the Chargers...

    But so does the PUBLIC... And Vegas has moved the line from 5.5 to 4.5...

    Ask yourself why Vegas would be trying to attract more CHARGERS bets when 80% of the money is already siding with them?

    Answer forthcoming... (cue "Jeopardy" music - and don't forget to phrase your response in the form of a question)...

    ReplyDelete
  122. I've grown tired of the up Monday analysis because it all overlooks something pretty damn easy to see:

    from the april top to the July low there were 7 down mondays, trend changed down, Mondays were down....from there to the August top, you guessed it, a bunch of up Monday's, and then during the august sell-off, well, look at the Monday's. during the 09 rally, lots of up mondays....during the bull market of the 80's and 90's, lots of up mondays....during the huge cycle bull from the end of WWII, lots of up mondays.....

    back to the near term scale....it's 90% days almost every day in one direction or the other....I don't think the up Monday as a stand-alone has any importance at all.

    ReplyDelete
  123. I didn't think he'd get back to me in our draft but I had a chance at him (Foster) in my other and I passed on him, at least for week 1 that was a giant miss there.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Ding! Time's up...

    The correct response:

    "What is... by moving the line to 4.5, it means they DON't payout ("Chiefs") TEASERS of 11 or more, or, ("Chargers") TEASERS of 2 or more...

    There may be a lot of open teasers... If you teased the Chargers down, you're STILL only getting 1.5 points)... If you teased the Chiefs up... you're only getting 10.5 (not 11)...

    I wouldn't be surprised to see this game move to 4 point spread by game time...

    ReplyDelete
  125. and effing Ryan Grant, told the guys I work with I didn't like him this year, thought he would get hurt, later that night, well I pick him of course

    suppose I'm shopping for a FA this week.

    ReplyDelete
  126. I'm looking for the Ravens D and P rivers to rock the houses tonight. The Bo Jacksons looked hot week 1

    ReplyDelete
  127. @karen

    sorry for all the football talk...

    But on these IDIOTIC markets, at least there's something else to talk about...

    Obviously, CV is a hypocrite... I can stand hypocrisy in sports betting (because I expect it)...

    I haven't gotten around to forgiving capital markets for cheating & lying to me...

    ReplyDelete
  128. @McF

    Too bad too... The Pack has Buffalo (at home) this week...

    ReplyDelete
  129. I thought Karen was a huge Raiders fan like McFearless?

    ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  130. Please don't get me started on the Arian Foster debacle....I could have sworn he would drop to me at the end of the fourth. he had been falling to 6th/7th rounds in lots of mock drafts.

    Think anyone who is long Schaub and Andre Johnson is probably having some second thoughts right now...

    ReplyDelete
  131. I know man, I figured this first week wouldn't be a huge one for Grant but that week 2 match-up....he had a boot on last night, that's never good, he was gimping pretty bad.

    Ahhhhh!

    my other back in that league is Michael Turner, so my RB's got me smoked this week.

    ReplyDelete
  132. yeah, I did several mocks before the season started, Foster went as late as 8 in one of them but usually right in 6 or 7, real drafts roll around and he was gone way earlier.

    ReplyDelete
  133. @Andy

    What about MEGATRON (with Matt Stafford now out 4-6 weeks)...

    Doh!

    ReplyDelete
  134. Foster was going earlier and earlier as the weeks rolled by in pre-season...

    I was doing one draft per week (starting in late July)...

    Hell - In July they were drafting Ben Tate (and Foster wasn't even drafted)...

    By september 1st, he was going as low as the 5th round...

    ReplyDelete
  135. Curb your enthusiasm for rising bond yields:

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/13/news/economy/thebuzz/index.htm

    ReplyDelete
  136. For you, CV: http://www.thestockmasters.com/silver-long-buy-09132010

    ReplyDelete
  137. Jesse's spx chart targeting 1250

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/TIlAEC-77-I/AAAAAAAAOhc/QFfd-cQgANw/s1600/spfutuesdaily9.PNG

    ReplyDelete
  138. @karen

    I'm content to let silver run here...

    Hard to sit and watch all the others have the fun tho...

    ReplyDelete
  139. @karen

    Re: Jesse

    OR... 3 "knocks" on 1130 might just turn out to be 3P&DH

    inkblotz bitchez!

    ReplyDelete
  140. holy crap that is one busy chart from captain gold.

    laughing....how many H&S patterns sliced and diced people for labeling the upside targets before we even saw the neckline busted since the big one last summer?

    it's amazing to me that two weeks ago you could have found countless articles about excessive bearish sentiment all over the web....fast forward two weeks and despite bulls jumping way up again, you've got everyone less than afraid to call for, no, not 1,200, they are all 1250-1300 calls!

    i said a couple weeks ago a close above 1,100 would be the best for bears as it would drag a lot of bulls back in, and at the time it did, but I was very wrong, it was another test of the 1040 zone that brought the bulls back in force.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @McF

    Maybe it's just me... But that "triple bounce" off 1040 (seasonality factored in), still has a mighty hokey look to it...

    ReplyDelete
  142. CV,

    well, I just don't have the confidence in any near term charts to say much about anything right now but I do take interest in how many people are so bullish right now, and have been for about a year now to the tune of a nearly 0 return in stocks over that period, when you have a lot of people suggesting to buy dividend stocks in a secular bear market something is up.

    now this is the part when one of the bulls says, but ben, if you look at Apple or Netflix over that period.

    ROR...

    ReplyDelete
  143. ah, gotta love when buffett comes out to do his "long America" thing.

    ReplyDelete
  144. mrtopstep

    RT @Eubiquitous FYI AUG 10th GAP high in SEPT #SPX #futures was #1125.75#; today's high in SEPT's #1124.00# ALL ABOARD..time for some shorts

    ReplyDelete
  145. If anybody is annoyed, just watch that TALKING HEADS video parody (in thread) to get a good laugh...

    ror

    ReplyDelete
  146. "Earth From Above" is the result of the aerial photographer Yann
    Arthus-Bertrand's five-year airborne odyssey across six continents.
    It's a spectacular presentation of large scale photographs of
    astonishing natural landscapes. Every stunning aerial photograph tells
    a story about our planet.

    http://justpaste.it/3ky

    ReplyDelete
  147. CV, if i could keep my eyelids open, i might be annoyed : )

    ReplyDelete
  148. it is tempting to get pretty big short but i can't pull the trigger on that.

    ReplyDelete
  149. @karen

    I hope all those "cattle" pics are BULLS getting "hemmed in" here...

    ReplyDelete
  150. DougKass:

    i reported last week that i had taken a market neutral position - i can report now that i am slightly net short $$

    ReplyDelete
  151. too many bears....well, not in funds though:

    http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

    ReplyDelete
  152. so doug kass, my only question is, is this a generataional call or just one you'll hold for a few hours?

    His TBT call was about as bad as it gets, talk about taking a bath and not admitting to being wrong, just keep buying instead, can't say I haven't done it, but then again, I don't get worshipped like Kass does.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Mr Topstep:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WuuHC7HE7E

    ReplyDelete
  154. What's China's Real Inflation Rate? (What's China Real Anything?)

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bw-whats-chinas-real-inflation-rate.html

    ReplyDelete
  155. mrtopstep

    http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/13/whatcha-gonna-do/

    ReplyDelete
  156. Because I'm bored & doodling...

    new chart in thread

    Random thoughts:

    - On a 10 min chart, the RSI low was hit just before the "bullish divergence" hit on the first touch of 1040...

    - around 12.5

    - when we crossed 1100, the RSI peaked at 89% (roughly symmetrical to 12.5% on the other side), now we have a BEARISH divergence, with a higher high...

    - The thing is though, on a 20 day chart, it might take 6 more trading days to move that 12.5% RSI print totally off the charts...

    Not an IN DEPTH way of looking at things, but a perspective...

    It could be that it trades back down to 1110 this week (trying to confirm that level on the other side), and get yet another bearish divergence thrust higher (or couple days, even)...

    ReplyDelete
  157. spy daily candle looks ominous.. seriously..

    ReplyDelete
  158. mrtopstep

    RT @coffeygrinds #NYFed says they plan to purchase about $27 bil. worth of Treasuries between mid-September to mid-October with MBS proceeds

    ReplyDelete
  159. Jamie with sonar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6cNVR_zD98&feature=youtu.be

    ReplyDelete
  160. all I see are three types of calls:

    1. everyone is a contrarian now, every single thing that could be viewed as a contrarian indicator gets trotted out as some sort of thesis, magazines, sentiment surveys gone mainstream, erin burnett's outfit, we even use a Tony Robbins video where he doesn't actually say ANYTHING and claim....contrarian! and on and on...problem is you can't time sentiment. I've looked at sentiment daily for years, it cannot be timed and people claiming too much of anything since the April top are confused, sentiment has been mixed at best ever since the Flash crash, going into April I had never seen sentiment so collectively bullish, jmo.

    2. The QE2/Liquidity/money has to go somewhere, hold your nose and buy hope crowd. I trust I don't need to explain this, if anyone has been around the last month they've heard this rationale countless times.

    3. things are bad, stay bearish, short forever, it'll get worse before it gets better.

    it would seem the world has turned even more subjective in order to make a "call" than at any other time before the start of the secular bear in 2000, again JMO.

    ReplyDelete
  161. gap down tomorrow and you could have an abandoned baby Karen

    ReplyDelete
  162. I have added a little more to the small cap short....stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
  163. MBA Purchase Applications
    7:00 AM ET

    Empire State Mfg Survey
    8:30 AM ET

    Import and Export Prices
    8:30 AM ET

    Industrial Production
    9:15 AM ET

    EIA Petroleum Status Report
    10:30 AM ET

    ReplyDelete
  164. good for a gander : )

    http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/09/13/magical-monday-terrible-tuesday/

    ReplyDelete
  165. http://www.piercecountyherald.com/event/article/id/28867/group/News/

    MILWAUKEE - Almost 55-percent of Harley-Davidson employees in Metro Milwaukee voted today in favor of a new contract designed to keep their jobs from going elsewhere.


    The United Steelworkers at the Harley motorcycle engine plant in Menomonee Falls voted 619-507 in favor of a seven-year contract that takes effect in 2012. The International Association of Machinists, which represents about 135 Harley workers, also okayed the contract. It’s designed to cut costs by reducing at least 200 of the 1,400-plus full-time jobs at the Milwaukee area plant. It also lets the company hire seasonal workers at just over half the union members’ pay, in order to meet fluctuations in the product’s demand.


    ...Not your father's union contract...not even recognizable...this union seems to understand today's economic environment. They will have jobs.

    I heard one journalistic say that HD was trying to transition fixed labor costs into flexible labor costs..if so, it appears they are succeeding.

    ReplyDelete
  166. If "ifs" & "buts" were "candy & nuts"...

    ReplyDelete
  167. I saw the coolest thing this morning...

    I was driving back to MD (from WVA thin morning), and I'm going over the first of two bridges...

    - you go over the Shenandoah River, then you hug the the shoreline of that and about 2 miles down you cross over the Potomac River into MD...

    Anyway - It's THICK fog west of the Potomac River Ridge, but as you cross over the Shenandoah (from the west), you're almost looking due East down the River (as the Shenandoah & Potomac converge)...

    Well obviously it was "sunny" on the other side of the Ridge, but you could only see it off the reflection of the river (which as you look at it - you can see it stretch for 5-6 miles)...

    So I got this weird site of it being thick fog, yet you could see the the top of it, and way down farther you could see sunlight reflecting off the water coming back at you...

    It was like going through a tunnel or something...

    I wish I'd have gotten a picture of it...

    ReplyDelete
  168. "So I got this weird site of it being thick fog, yet you could see the the top of it, and way down farther you could see sunlight reflecting off the water coming back at you...

    It was like going through a tunnel or something..."


    Leftback's ear doctor said the same thing recently when trying to look at LB's ear drum...

    ReplyDelete
  169. Breathtaking sunrise, Bruce! and CV, you experience seems surreal!

    ReplyDelete
  170. @karen

    avatar... ROR

    We're sure glad you got THAT fixed...

    ---

    Ravens on tap for Monday Night Football - Stellas on ice...

    I'll need them... It'll probably be a 0-0 game...

    Kind of like Liverpool...

    ReplyDelete
  171. Nic has some hilarious tweets going about this:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/NFL-looks-into-Jets-treatment-of-female-reporter-15013326

    ReplyDelete
  172. @karen

    I swear... It was thick engulfing fall all around you and overhead...

    But then about 5 miles down river (straight through the river gap), you could see this tunnel of bright light which was reflecting all the way up the river bed...

    one of the most bizzare things I've ever seen...

    ReplyDelete
  173. @karen

    The JETS with female reporters...

    How about Joe Namath (former Jet), being interviewed by Suzy Kolber?

    ReplyDelete
  174. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc65NC44dSk

    ReplyDelete
  175. Naturally.. makes perfect sense:

    SPDR Homebuilders hovering near best level of the day and its 200 ema 15.47/15.49
    3:15 PM ET 9/13/10 | Briefing.com
    Its Sep/six week high is at 15.58 -- LEN, MDC, MTH, PHM, SPF, TOL, HD, LOW, SHW.

    ReplyDelete
  176. ...all I know is that if the trajectory of the $SPX candle gets any steeper, it's going to warp the space-time continuim...

    It's going to start bending itself backwards in time, on the "x"-"y" axis, and we'll actually find ourselves back in the month of May or something...

    ReplyDelete
  177. zerohedge

    stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil.... all up. lol
    less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

    ReplyDelete
  178. Hmmph. What was turning into a shooting star has morphed back into a long day (SPX).

    ReplyDelete
  179. ... at this rate, we'll be at 1576 by Thanksgiving...

    ReplyDelete
  180. $sox pulling off a miracle today, too, despite downward earnings revisions..

    ReplyDelete
  181. CV --porfolio performance wise, I'd be happy to find myself back in May. I went to law school at UVA -- the fog in the mountains was incredible and beautiful. Of course, the 65 car pileups coming over the mountain into C-ville weren't so great, but fortuately I wasn't ever in one. McF -- you were right to wait on the CAT puts!

    ReplyDelete
  182. Primary Dealers Prepare To Invest $27 Billion In Fed Money, Levered 30x Over The Next Month, To Buy High Beta Names

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/primary-dealers-prepare-invest-27-billion-fed-money-levered-30x-over-next-month-buy-high-bet

    So it "IS" the elections ramp-up after all...

    CV stands corrected...

    ReplyDelete
  183. Today's action in AAPL looks like backtesting a broken trendline, but that might be my bearish leanings showing.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Two POMO days this week ... this could get choppy

    ReplyDelete
  185. #NYSE imbalance $115MM to BUY $NYX

    ReplyDelete
  186. ah, yes, CAT, now I'll have an even better level to eventually short it at, but wait for the market to confirm it.

    ReplyDelete
  187. Straight lovin the tape today... you get the best of both worlds!

    Got I and I short fix inna di morning (Keep the I in harmony)... and then got to ride an uptrend after lunch. Love days like this...

    Dont know how it ends, but must say that objectively, daily chart looks constructive for YM... (which is Dow, for the non mini folks,)

    So, we could be set to make another run at the 10700 level, which was the January high and August high.

    If thats where we're headed, then it sets up a nice reversal right around... drumroll...

    McF and I-Man's birthdays (9/22, 9/23) but more importantly, the autumnal equinox... historically a market cycle changer.

    Interesting to see how much of a short squeeze we get here in the next few days if price continues higher... doesnt feel like the market is that short, feels more like folks are selling into strength, and if price continues rising, could easily get one of those panic buying mini rally's, right into, ahem... resistance.

    Gotta love it.

    -I

    Hail to the Redskins, Dallas.

    ReplyDelete
  188. thanks I, p/c never got very high today, seems some new bets are coming in for upside volatility in October as well.

    it "feels" like people are getting very bullish again, feels more like January than it did in April though....

    ReplyDelete