Ahhh, can you feel it?
One can almost feel the first inkling of the seasonal change from Summer to Autumn. The morning weather here (Houston) is now bearable--"bearable" in the sense that one can walk his dog in the morning without becoming a sweaty and pissed off person. More importantly, though, America's most popular sport is officially back on the television--our modern era Gladiators have taken to the Coliseums--the masses will be appeased for awhile. I must admit that Autumn is my favorite season (Football, Thanksgiving, Halloween, nice weather, etc...) so the current whiff of change brings a smile to my face.
With that in mind, I took a more 'reflective' tone in tonight's posting. I went "deep" as it were....
Presented here are some very longer term wave models as well as a more "actionable" update. The Dollar "took the hit" as far as my attention was concerned in that the DXY only received a one page update--though, there should be enough in that one page to create a trading strategy for the next week.
Hope everyone had a good three day weekend.
Best, Andy
Apol's in advance for taking down the post and resubmitting the Scribd files. I realized I had made a pretty significant math error on the first go....
ReplyDeleteHi Andy,
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for this work. It is incredible the detail and thought that goes in.
My curiosity of Neo-wave has been piqued this week following your chart about don't trust the count of this as an impulse. I will most definitely be reading Neely's book in the (hopefully) not too distant future.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out - and the outcome may speed my acquisition of Neely's book.
Thanks again.
mcHappy...
ReplyDeleteWell...the bad news is that we might all be dead by the time we find out how it all plays out....but the next few years will give some good clues as to who was steering down a better track.
andy,
ReplyDeletethanks very much for all this work, great stuff here, also really enjoyed the bigger picture Neely stuff. I'm looking to re-establish a dollar position in the near term, while the bigger picture view on equities remains bearish I'm not too confident in any particular count in the very near term, maybe we get another larger rally here, not sure, so I prefer the dollar trade to that.
thanks again man, I agree this time of year is the best.
Well...something is making the DXY move tonight....
ReplyDeleteThx a lot Andy...
ReplyDeleteI've been involved herding cats the past few days (which means organizing FF drafts)...
Finally we can settle back to markets starting tomorrow...
I plan on "going to cash" in 2150...
Andy.. we have a "few" years left?
ReplyDeleteCV, if you need a cat (or dog) whisperer... i do birds, too.
Still dealing with outside chores and green waste bin--which gets picked up tomorrow.. I'll dig into those charts in an hour.. I'm quite pliable at the moment, being in 'whatever' mode..
I cannot believe this oddity.. post my post.. my son emails me this video:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwM6f0liHpo
cv@9:29: bwaahahahahha
ReplyDelete@karen: Yes...just a few years until 2012...i think that's going to be a good year for stocks....
After that....
well....
you know the drill....
Running outside now to finish up.. so sorry I'm not into american football so I could give you all a piece of my mind on every game : ) and every player : )
ReplyDeletea couple is two.. a few is 3 or 4!! it is 2010. that was my point, laughing. okay I'm gone.. sun sets in 23 min or so..
ReplyDeleteAT<
ReplyDeletenice charts~ needless to say, I tend to agree..
those 'longer term' charts, based on Neely...~"we need to flush the BBoomers b4 there's a 'constructive case'"...are provocative.
tends to square with what I've long thought..
~~
also, same, on the shorter term SPX charts, seems Up 'is the new black', for the time being..
Another good NLY post: http://annaly.com/blog/2010/08/31/FollowingTheRealMoney.aspx
ReplyDeleteAsset bubbles and leverage are kindred spirits. Just look at housing, tech stocks, and tulip bulbs. But if this is a necessary bubble condition, bonds don’t make the cut. Thanks to data provided by AMG and the Fed, we know there has been real, unleveraged buying behind the bond rally.
Boise State, wow. that's a nice start to the season.
ReplyDeleteMark Hoffer...in the house.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that....
Yeah, it's weird to come up with wave counts that basically suggest:
"Mom and Dad: You're screwing the whole country right now. It was 'all good' for a while, but you need to go quietly now."
Thanks for reading the work.....
Boise State....been a fan for a long, long time....
Been watching them since they were "equals" with Fresno State in the WAC....
Equals no longer...
Though, the game with Fresno St. in November will likely be their "rubicon."
Just in case....
ReplyDelete"Rubicon"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
n.
A limit that when passed or exceeded permits of no return and typically results in irrevocable commitment.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Andy,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the all the charts that you put up.
A bigger thanks for being this generous and sharing what you know.
Prashant
I slept a little on this and I'm just throwing it out there.
ReplyDeleteI'm still not giving up on this as an impusive move down - yet - although it is getting close.
Here are a few reasons why:
1) You can make the chart fit 5-3-5-3-5 'by the rules' but (to me) it also fits in with a 3-3-3-3-3 for a leading diagonal that ended with an extended fifth wave. Diagonals are hybrids of motives and impulses - hence the confusion.
2) They are followed by large retraacements i.e. .786 which would be 1110.
3) It is rare, but C waves do often have 2.618 lengths of wave A. A = 1039.83-1065.21 for 25.38 x 2.618 is 66.44 for a target of 1106.14 off 1039.7 (B wave?).
4) 1 shorter than 3 shorter than 5, expanding lines off 1 and 3 with 2 and 4.
5) A leading diagonal to kick off a minor 3 would be quite fitting.
I do like the leading diagonal count better the more I think of it - especially with the correction that has unfolded.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aCa4iKYHesng
ReplyDeleteSept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Households and companies will continue to reduce debt built up before the financial crisis, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.
A study of 20 systemic banking crises that were preceded by surges in credit showed that in 17 cases, debt relative to gross domestic product returned to levels seen before the crisis, economists Garry Tang and Christian Upper wrote in the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS’s latest quarterly review.
“If history is any guide, we should expect to see a much more significant reduction in private-sector debt, particularly of households, than has so far taken place after the recent crisis,” they wrote. “Lower house prices may induce households to reduce their desired level of debt. Similarly, a lower level of output and tighter financial conditions could put firms under pressure to reduce their leverage.”
mcHappy: It's 'possible' that it's a leading diagonal lower to start the move. The issue tho' is that a LD impulse could also be an A-Wave, right?
ReplyDeleteI can see the LD but those are rare counts, I still favor the larger structure being corrective as I pitched aside P3 months ago but I'm not confident enough in any count to do anything more than small positions.
ReplyDeletedollar....look at that action.
Stocks, U.S. Futures Fall, Bonds Rally on Europe Debt Concern
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-02/asian-stocks-won-climb-on-imf-forecast-u-s-manufacturing-copper-gains.html
Oh - Debt wasn't a concern during all of August because we were all on vacation, but now that we have out asses back in our chairs for the one day of work we do per week... we're back in crisis mode...
This is why I hate August (especially the week before Labor Day)...
Of course, Barry O is doing the same thing...
ReplyDeleteBack from vacation(s), and yakking about how how he's going to spend another $50 billion fixing roads (probably the roads that go between voters houses in "unionized labor districts" no doubt)...
Didn't this already FAIL in January '09...
Nice stick save Barry...
And the beat goes on... Nice to know that nothing has changed over the long holiday weekend folks...
morning! glad I am up.. despite the lack of economic news today looks set to reverse last week's lemming run.. i'm seeing euro, aussie selling; dollar, yen buying.
ReplyDelete"Japan’s and Australia’s central banks signaled that the outlook for U.S. growth is deteriorating, making it tougher for them to set monetary policy."
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ax98RGimZWoM
copper is making a decent move today.. crude oil, an even better one.
ReplyDelete“I’m interested in finding investments that aren’t just simply going to float up and down with the market,” he said. “The incredible correlation that we’re experiencing -- we’ve been experiencing for a number of years -- is problematic.”
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayR3PjEbMErM
"While the likes of Zerohedge and Business Insider have now bludgeoned the general public into utter stupefaction and boredom with the various treasuries/gold bubble or not arguments, TMM are of the opinion that the most overstretched trades lie elsewhere. Take, for example, all things Southeast Asia. As you can see below their equities have had quite a run to say the least, but not without some choppiness over the summer. Foreign fund flows have been strong - look at the cash going into the IDX and EWM ETFs." http://macro-man.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeletea novel idea: "Let the housing market crash."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/economy/06housing.html?_r=1
"U.S. growth" (8:29)
ReplyDeleteNovel concept... What has "grown" in the US for the past 30 years but DEBT?
@Andy 7:39
ReplyDeleteYes. I should have mentioned that.
Anybody else have a mysterious print on the S&P cash that conveniently hit on the 78.6 retrace from 666 back to 1576???
ReplyDeleteTesting the FLASH CRASH response I suppose...
Tuesday, September 7th, 2010, 8:08 am
ReplyDeleteFor the first time since 1992, bank deposit balances fell in the first half of the year.
Deposits decreased 0.4% for the six months between January and June to $7.69 billion from nearly $7.7 billion, and the yields on the deposits fell to less than 1%, according to analysis from Market Rates Insight.
"Even inelasticity has its limits" said Dan Geller executive vice president at the California-based research firm. "For nearly two decades, deposit balances as a whole were very inelastic, and kept on growing despite substantial fluctuation in the average rate paid on deposits. It looks like in 2010 the inelasticity reached it limit."
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/bank-deposit-balances-shrink-for-first-time-since-92
was it something I said ? i wonder..
ReplyDeleteCV.. my $spx looks fine.. no misprints..
C,
ReplyDeleteI don't have that on mine.
All,
probably won't be around much next few days, busy time of year here, playing some catch from last week as well. I'll be around here and there though.
g. luck.
well, cv, we can talk spy if you want.. needs to fill the fri opening gap up.. perhaps even lower? 109 looks promising.
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeletesent you a return email. No doubt. Also-
Ryan Matthews?
C'mon man!
hey, check out this e-mail I got while I was out of town, our favorite tan man:
ReplyDeleteJoe Terranova is keeping his eye on the ball as September begins.
In Every Pitch Counts Now, Joe reviews several key economic indicators and identifies what you should be looking for through the remainder of 2010.
The September edition of Virtus' monthly calendar focuses on indicators and market events in the coming month. Visit Virtus.com at the start of each month for an updated calendar and subscribe to the RSS Feed for Joe's most recent comments on his blog.
For ideas to help position clients in an unpredictable market, please contact us at 1-800-243-4361 or visit Virtus.com.
Regards,
Virtus Investment Partners
Virtus.Marketing@Virtus.Com
800.243.4361
www.Virtus.com
I'm going to paste fotos of the print I was talking about in the thread...
ReplyDeleteSorry - I'm also raking leaves this morning :-)
I'm feeling pretty good about the draft last night, one more tonight and another tomorrow night. I can't think of something better to do three nights in a row.
ReplyDeleteI nice pictorial at http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-1100-price-level-in-the-sp500/
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeleteyeah- I got a few players I was interested in. I'm going to take some time reviewing everyone's team in the next day or two
Probably not news to you fellows: The Heisman Trophy Trust is expected to strip former University of Southern California star running back Reggie Bush of college football’s top honor by the end of September, sources told Yahoo! Sports.
ReplyDeleteNew charts in thread
ReplyDeleteThese were the prints on the S&P cash that I still have on my screen... Happened this morning...
Interesting that the candle stretches to the mark of the 78.6% retrace from the 666 low back to 1576...
Just curious... (and strange)...
@karen
ReplyDeleteRe: Bush
Yeah, but can he keep the Kardashian?
ahab,
ReplyDeleteyeah, sort of in the same boat, I made one awful pick, still not sure what the hell I was doing on that one, too busy preparing for the other two drafts I still have before I've looked over all the teams. Seemed a lot of people wasted an early pick on a QB in our league.
@McF
ReplyDeleteWasted QB pick...
Not exactly... In the points structure, there are structured bonuses that go out to QB's that exceed 250, 300, and 400 yards...
There are only a few QB's in the league that are capable of putting up those kinds of numbers several times per year...
In the end, I'm hoping it'll balance out the rushing yards & TD vultures...
b22-
ReplyDeleteas I was telling CV in my email- kind of glad I had a late pick- wanted to pick Ryan Matthews anyway and was hoping for a quick round two to pick up Andre Johnson (didn't get it though)
got Vernon Davis- and Schaub I picked up in the 4th round- he was my intended pick-
I really like Houston this year- was even looking at Ben Tate until he got injured
There are bonuses for 100+ rushing performances too... But those are fewer and farther in between...
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the season as a whole, many backs who pile up big yards tend to do so in chunks...
Adrian Peterson hardly did anything for the last 6 games last season...
Anybody whose QB goes down with an injury is going to really be hurting...
ReplyDeleteThat's why I took Flacco (who is a starter on most teams, as a backup)...
@karen
ReplyDeleteDid you see that PRINT on SPX that I posted?
new tax breaks getting announced soon?
ReplyDeleteBetter than Bush?
That's the new "killing-it"
i did! but i don't know what it means or what caused it..
ReplyDeleteI picked up Stafford as my back up. I am thinking Detroit is looking better all the time
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletewe'll see, I don't recall QB's having much of an impact on the league last year outside of Brees, RB's and WR's are the key...but that was last year. I'm happy with Rivers, wanted more RB's and WR's on my squad, I figure if Rivers gets hurt I can make do with Sanchez or trade.
We'll see if Matt Forte can offer an upside surprise, that line is suspect, but he's looked a lot better lately.
I read an article the other say that polled Ohio voters whereby something like 55%-45%, if given the choice now, would go back to Bush for the last two years instead of 2 more years with Obama...
ReplyDeleteOuch!
The "points" structure is a little juicier this year with QB's...
ReplyDeleteFrom DR today:
ReplyDelete"In sum, the most realistic assessment of the new announced fiscal packages is front and center on page 1 of today’s FT (Obama in $50bn Plan to Boost Jobs):
“But the president’s plan is almost certain to fail to win Congressional approval, with many Democrats unwilling to support new spending and Republicans loath to give the administration legislative victories before the November 2 vote.
The economy is chief among voters’ concerns and, while they criticize Mr. Obama for failing to focus sufficiently on jobs, polls show voters also balk at extra spending that resembles a second stimulus package.”
Also, EWFF had great points again about sentiment in the latest, I really believe many people are going to get burned misreading short term sentiment surveys....time will tell though.
@ben
ReplyDeleteThink of it this way...
If you have a QB who THROWS for 35 TD's... Times 4 points = 140 (plus the yards, plus the bonus)...
Anyway... Strictly off TD points, you'd need a back who scored 23 TD's... That's like LT in one of his better years...
Even AP or Chris Johnson would have GOOD years if they scored over 20 TD's...
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI like Houston as well this year, but the whole AFC is stacked again so it's hard to say what their record is going to be, they def. have a lot of talent on that team.
b22 @ 10:38
ReplyDeleteI wonder if that would have anything to do w/ this headline-
"Democrats Face Grim Election Prospects as Support Wanes"
a scramble to shore up votes
But then if you drop down to a sucky QB that tosses 22 TD's (but 14 picks)... Then you net out to 88 (minus 28 for picks) = 60...
ReplyDeleteThat's like 10 rushing TD's...
CV,
ReplyDeleteSort of, but that's like talking about cash without talking about credit, gotta factor in the negative points from turnovers. Less chances for turnovers in general from a top WR vs. a QB, but yes, I get your point. I think Rivers will get stats either way, I figured I had better still try to get a top guy when I could, even if he isn't a top 4 QB.
I like my running backs, I feel like I'm 4 deep there going into the season.
that said, I came really close to taking Peyton last night early, just decided against it.
but- personally- I don't think the GOP is all that either-
ReplyDeletebut what's your choices?
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that's exactly what it has to do with, but if the market keeps going down then so will the politico approval ratings...no matter what "they say", there is a very strong correlation.
"but what's your choices?"
ReplyDeleteObjectively I'll be voting for those I like the least this year, iow, someone I really don't approve of at all. I expect the market and the economy to be a damn disaster the next few years, I want to make sure I try to get right the people in office for when the blame game begins.....I feel like this is my smartest path.
sound crazy?
give me a better solution then....
@ahab
ReplyDeleteIf the GOP wins seats (or even a majority)...
The only thing that will happen is that it'll tie up ANY legislative proposal...
They'll propose things (that will get vetoed)... Obama will propose things (that never pass)...
Impasse city...
Good news is... More rounds of golf & vacations for Obama...
Oh... & let's not forget the never ending "corruption" indictments & hearings...
Yawn...
For me... the only thing I'd LIKE to see would be for the Healthcare bill to get repealed...
ReplyDeleteand speaking of football, PSU @ BAMA next weekend. It's pretty much make or break for my boys right there. Freshman QB looked good last week but I'm so nervous that there are still three guys in the mix each week and nobody knows the real starter. Reminds me of the Zach Mills days....
ReplyDeletethis weekend, I mean....
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest question mark is the Bears-
that will be interesting to watch play out-
being an old Bears fan- I hoping for the best-
(still strikes me as odd that Lovie kept his job- I wonder if he'll be calling any plays- Jim Zorn?)
@McF
ReplyDeleteYour boys are going to get slaughtered down there sorry to say...
Bears will lose to the Lions this week...
ReplyDeleteIt'll be a BAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHD start says sheep boy
@karen
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of the bucky bounce today?
One day, or is it starting its next wave up?
CV,
ReplyDeleteYou and everybody else have already told me that, if we start like we did this past week that's how it's going to play out too.
I'm just not sure we have the talent...but I'll go down with my squad til' the bitter end.
ReplyDeletere: sentiment,
ReplyDeleteexamples, which I'll provide all week, this from DR today:
"In fact, there really is very little in the way of real capitulation despite what a couple of surveys say. Barron’s this week is a classic case in point — the feature interview is titled It’s Not Time to Abandon Stocks (at true lows, you actually read the opposite) on page 36 and Barron’s forecasting roundtable (page 23 — Hoping for the Best — again, the title just about says it all). Not one of the 10 prognosticators is calling for a down equity market by year-end, and the average for the S&P 500 is 1,184 (the median is 1,160)."
b22 @ 10:52-
ReplyDeleteinteresting take
CV says-
For me... the only thing I'd LIKE to see would be for the Healthcare bill to get repealed...
yeah- that whole thing was a mess (doesn't solve anything- makes it more expensive) and how they passed it was a show.
I wonder how they pull that off
gotta roll
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThe main thing I read over the weekend is how much hedge funds, prop desks, etc. are all behind the 8 ball going into the end of the quarter...
How there's "artificial incentive" to prop the thing up...
It's hard to stand here, having watched the last few trading days (and the move off of 1040), and then have a long weekend, to NOT believe the theory...
Actually, I DO believe the theory... (I mean, tell me a prop desk or fund that DOESN'T want higher markets, ever)...
But I have a hard time buying into the idea that if that's what they all want, then that's what they'll get...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete#futures right now 30ish locals in the pit NO FLOW at all here NOT everyone back yet
less than 20 seconds ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet
mrtopstep
#futures We put out 1090 to 1093 as support so far the low in the SPU is 1092.00 total big SPU volume is only 4.5k with 850k minis
1 minute ago via TweetDeck
mrtopstep
good morning we are now in the roll over so we wont be Tweeting as much this Thursday DEC goes front month
@karen
ReplyDeletere: dollar
One thing I'm looking at is if the dollar does a DEATH CROSS of its own...
Friday it bounced off the 200MA and is still pinned under the 50... If it rallies here, it might start pulling that 50MA back up and avoid the death cross...
That ought to be bullish in many minds...
CV.. on UUP, it it can regain 24.10, it'll be back in up mode, imo..
ReplyDelete24.20 would be a bullish breakout.. : )
meant to post this: Six of Ten Largest Mutual Funds Currently Sport 0.99 Correlation with S&P 500
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/six-of-ten-largest-mutual-funds.html
also of interest: Home Equity Lines of Credit, the Next Looming Disaster?
ReplyDelete"Aided by the seemingly limitless desire of banks to lend money, homeowners opened an incredible number of HELOCs during the bubble years of 2004-2006.
Nowhere was the madness of HELOC borrowing more astounding than in California. During the two key years of 2004 and 2005, a total of 1.43 million HELOCs were originated in California just for the purchase of homes according to figures received from CoreLogic."
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/housing-bubble-home-equity-lines-of-credit-heloc-second-mortage-lien-holders-home-foreclosures-bank-failures-the-new-york-times-keith-jurow-3122.php
CV,
ReplyDeleteA couple points on that:
1. I thought several of the prop desks were starting to get unwound, so they wont' be as relevant moving forward.
2. EWFF discusses hedge funds specifically in the recent update and made what I thought were good points, here are the bullets:
a: HFRX global hedge fund Index showed the average hedge fund lost 26.3% from July 07-Dec 08, I would guess that average is skewed by the handful that had huge up years, point is we could have argued for a rally during the duration of the sell-off from 07-09 because hedge funds were "behind the ball". This year HFRX shows a decline of 2.45% since the April high vs, what was a 10.5% decline for the S&P at the time it was written, so you hear the same argument as we did then.
b: EWI draws a parallel between hedge funds and their positions and the "nifty 50" from the early 70's since according to ZH "little by little most hedge funds are now moving to the 100 or so stocks that account for 50% of the market volume" this is a scary development on a number of different levels.
We've seen this idea presented a lot lately haven't we...., get stocks with dividends, multi-nationals, they rarely ever really go down, you'll get your dividend....on and on...review the Nifty 50 strategy in the early 70's, it's very similar to the sentiment expressed today about blue chips that pay a div and that ended up being a disastor of a call.
TOPSTEP (traders not back from holidays)...
ReplyDeleteLOL
DOES ANYBODY FRIGGIN' WORK ANYMORE?
All summer... No volume, no trading, POTUS on vacation... CB'ers in Wyoming...
Jeez - it's after Labor Day and STILL nobody is working...
By Friday they won't be working because it's Rosh Hashanah... Yom Kippur...
effin Columbus Day...
get to work people and sell some stocks!
@McF
ReplyDeleteYes... That's the type of trading (or equity shifting) that triggers Hindenburg Omens...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ED_F #options CCM sold 20k E0Z 88 puts at 6
this day is torture..
ReplyDeleteI believe Nenner is now calling for a bump into September before his huge move down, where he still sticks to DOW 5k, someone at Dan's posted that the spiral calendar turn date is 9/12, Phi-Mate is on 9/11, with the fibo work I was going I pegged last top +/- 2 days from 8/12, I had 9/12 as next turn date so it matches some other stuff.
ReplyDeleteas long as the bump into september was the one we just experienced last week.. : ) can't we just trickle down now.. starting today?
ReplyDeleteI kno right?
ReplyDeleteSo many I've been reading (not Nenner)...
ReplyDeleteHave this thing SIDEWAYS for the better part of 2 months...
That viewpoint seems to be becoming the consensus... I'll probably die of boredom if it happens that way...
Boredom, or worse, being wrong... !!
ReplyDeleteI kno right? my new favorite expression.. been saying it (to myself) all weekend !!
The fact is... NOTHING makes any sense in aggregate...
ReplyDelete- The economy is stalled so we need stimulus (so they say)...
- Nobody WANTS stimulus (save for the politicians, only to say that they're doing something)
- The central bankers, DENY everything and actually say they're hopeful for modest growth
- Yet they are poised to pull out unprecedented and never ending QE2... After August 10th, the bottom line is... The easing we provide will NEVER be withdrawn...
- The market can't react to it...
- It can't go up because it's not positive in a REAL sense
- It won't go down because everything gets monetized, and supported at every sign of trouble...
Somebody get me a noose so I can hang myself...
re: election rally,
ReplyDeleteas discussed last week there will certainly be a lot of chatter around politicians "pushing the market up" for the elections.
was reminded when reading the FF that the September/October period in the second year of the four year presidential cycle tend to be bearish on top of normally being seasonally weak. Point is, these are fun to listen to, but they are such a mixed bag it's gambling to put money on them.
also re: sentiment.
how is it that so many worry so much about a bearish aaii (which btw is in line with what a bear market looks like) but will not acknowledge the record issuance of junk bonds?
sentiment remains mixed at best, you'd be stretching to call it too bullish OR bearish here.
I swear... The thing that I really think I want to buy are PM's, but it seems THOSE are heavy (in price) as well...
ReplyDeleteThey're stuck and won't go down... SLV at another high today...
cute tees for math wizards:
ReplyDeletehttp://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/09/back-to-match-fanatics.html
@McF
ReplyDeleteI'm not "bullish" or "bearish"...
I'm "bored-ish"
CV.. just stare at your tilapia tank.. or put your head in it, laughing..
ReplyDeletebored?
ReplyDeletewait till thursday, that'll change.
I'm switching to pirhannas
ReplyDeleteyeah.. i blew it on gold.. from now on, let me be the ultimate contrarian indicator.. if i ever go short again, just go long and don't look back : )
ReplyDeleteI'm getting ill..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/stage-set-for-short-refinancing-program-starting-today
I'm not worried about it (gold) because I haven't sold an ounce of the physical since I bought it in '04...
ReplyDeleteBut it's getting weirder & weirder that the price just won't go down...
eye popping!!
ReplyDeleteRussell 3000 Stocks Which Have Returned 100%+ in 2010
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/russell-3000-stocks-which-have-returned.html
Stiglitz thinks money grows on trees, i guess..
ReplyDeleteSept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European governments made a “wrong bet” by pushing for austerity after the global recession, resulting in slower economic growth for the region and the U.S., Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
“Europe has made a wrong bet with austerity,” Stiglitz, 67, told reporters today in Budapest. If Germany, the U.K. and France remain committed to budget cutting, “that will have systemic consequences for the entire Europe.”
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKQ.X9YAxId4
LOL!! "The disparity in the numbers could either mean the market is due for a correction or the recent stock rally will keep going, analysts say."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/39037896
@karen
ReplyDeleteA few weeks ago I was making an argument about the keynesian nature of those comments by stiglitz...
I was duly reprimanded for doing such...
(12:25)
ReplyDeleteThat statement wins the C'MON MAN of the week award...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete@mrtopstep # futures DEAD HERE 20 locals in the pit NY lunch time no flow at ALL
I figured the bears would have pushed the market even lower by now. AUDJPY is off its low, TRIN hasn't broken 1000 in either direction, BKX & XLF getting slaughtered, CHF & JPY higher (CB's in pain over there). Seems like traders are still trying to get their bearings after coming back from vacation.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteSeems like the traders are still ON vacation...
Or everyone is bust with their fantasy football drafts...
ReplyDeletebusy
ReplyDeleteTiger Woods got selected as a captains pick to go to Ryder Cup...
ReplyDeleteWe need more bailouts.... I mean stimulus...
ReplyDelete.... I mean infrastructure spending.
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/09/michael-lewis-talks-about-the-banks-that-brought-down-greece.html
ReplyDeletenot sure how I feel about him on Ryder cup....he has been very inconsistent to say the least.
ReplyDeleteThe stimulus package should go to creating jobs for:
ReplyDelete- flight attendants
- dog walkers & trainers
- caterers
- hotel bellhops
- limo drivers
- caddies
- greenskeepers
- associate ass kickers
and all the other INFRASTRUCTURE Owebama needs for all his personal vacations & expiditions...
expeditions
ReplyDeleteMy pension plan is underfunded.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100828/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_vacation
ReplyDeleteAt 10 days, it will bring to 48 the number of vacation days Obama has taken since taking office. Former President George W. Bush had spent more than twice as much time on vacation at this point in his presidency.
@Anon
ReplyDeleteThe last time I checked my calendar, the year said 2010...
George W. Bush is no longer President...
Neither is George Washington, who, for all I know, spent all his waking hours on vacation...
The point is... With the economy hurting, and Americans hurting, it does not help very much to have the headlines splashed every single week with how many rounds of golf Obama played, or which beach he happens to be visiting...
It pisses people off...
Hell, people were more pissed off at Bush for what he did while he was WORKING... They should be happy to know he was on vacation...
If he was on vacation all the time, how could all these problems be his fault?
I cant take this day.. I really can't.
ReplyDeleteOn another note: Burry on the SEC and GS..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5USSXfRpg8
Karen @ 1:41
ReplyDeleteMy suggestion: go naked.
I'm referring, of course, to an options trading term.
...and if anyone wants to argue the point in another direction and say...
ReplyDelete"Well it's a GOOD thing that he does these things because it projects POSITIVITY and the sense that all is well..."
Then... It's a LIE, because things AREN'T right...
And people don't (or shouldn't) vote for a "blow smoke up your asser in Chief"...
Worse...
When people come to the conclusion that the person that they BELIEVED in for HOPE & CHANGE (naively so), is just another FOS politicians, it deludes them further...
They're worse off than they were before...
What's even worse than that is that this time you have a figurehead that has the capability of being "culturally" divisive...
Those are dangerous HATE mechanisms to dredge up...
I'd argue that we may be in the process of taking BACKWARDS steps along those lines (not FORWARD ones)...
All because of acting hastily & irrationally...
@karen
ReplyDeleteI'm about to pack it in myself...
CV @ 1:54
ReplyDeleteNow Obama is suing the sheriff of Phoenix, in an effort to get the Latino vote.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/02/AR2010090202521.html
rolls eyes
ReplyDeleteI wasn't on vacation, I was CLEARING BRUSH...
ReplyDelete"Former President George W. Bush had spent more than twice as much time on vacation at this point in his presidency."
ReplyDeleteI'll ask this again....anon....why is Bush the benchmark for anything....better than bush is not acceptable to me.
this is the president that the Dem's claim was the worst in history yes? Why then are we comparing his vacation days to the candidate of hope and change we could believe in?
DL, glad to see that you are still around.. and in good form. Your absence was disconcerting.
ReplyDeleteOur team is much better than the 2008 Detroit Lions...
ReplyDeleteReuters FLASH: Hewlett-Packard sues Mark Hurd: report
ReplyDeleteHousingWire
CMBS delinquencies accelerate toward 9% in August: http://goo.gl/fb/CHoJu
"We'll probably win TWICE as many games"
ReplyDeleteYeah but, the 2008 Lions were 0-16!
K,
ReplyDeleteDisconcerting?
Now I'm going to feel perpetually guilty if I don't post comments.
Ben.. I am not posting this to annoy you! "Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to print more money to bolster the U.S. economy will likely boost the yen and franc just as the Japanese and Swiss governments seek weaker currencies, if history is a guide."
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aagWuP1qmptg
Wanna know how bored I am?
ReplyDeleteThis weekend I have to start putting up my weekly NFL game write-ups...
Well, I don't HAVE TO, but I will... It'll be part of the weekend threads this fall...
It's so dull, that I can't even get myself motivated to do the game write-ups...
Today is
ReplyDelete(a) quite a mixed bag
(b) up for grabs
(c) annoying as all h*ll
Well, DL, it is rather hurtful that you post more at TBP than here : (
ReplyDeleted) a mixed bag of GRAB ASS that's annoying as h*ll
ReplyDeleteThat's the best I can do...
It's not hurtful to me if DL posts at TWSWB...
ReplyDeleteI've run out of words for that site (so somebody has to represent)...
mrtopstep!!!
ReplyDeletehttp://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/
k -
ReplyDeleteDL @ a:54
or better, at san onofre
Here...
ReplyDeleteEarly handicapping for NFL kickoff week...
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Thursday, Sept. 9 (8:30 EST)
Line: Saints by 5
Skip the "NFL Kickoff Concert" and lets get right to the game... Actually, I understand why the networks do these things... You know, to try and lure in new demographics towards football viewing by associating pop stars with NFL games... And, of course to sell advertising time (so all the Romans will know what to waste their money on)... But I digress...
Besides throwing to high school kids in Mississippi, Brett Favre hasn't seen much action this preseason... I'm skeptical that his 41 yo body will be able to make it through an entire NFL season, but I'm not stupid enough to automatically discard him as a possible threat... The issue with Favre, this year, is that teams are going to be COMING AFTER HIM (pressuring him with blitz packages)... The NFL is a copycat league... The "playbook" was exposed in last years NFC Championship game where Favre was treated the way your dog treats a stuffed animal... Minnesota's offensive line is much sketchier than they were last year...
Adrian Peterson is going to have to come up big here... He managed to put up big yards (and score 3 TD's in their last meeting, but he also coughed up 3 fumbles)... We'll see...
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a defense that can put a lot of pressure on QB's, but Drew Brees negates a lot of that with his quick release and quick decisions...
Frankly, I don't like the matchup here... I think the Saints, player for player, scheme for scheme, match up very well vs. the Vikings... In last winter's NFC Championship, the game stayed close, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Vikings were "on a roll" (after having trounced the Cowboys), and the Saints had been kind of sputtering for the last few games of the season, and were struggling with injuries in the defensive secondary...
The hardest thing in this game for the Saints to overcome, IMO, will be complacency... They will be receiving their Super Bowl rings, and the Superdome arena will be supercharged... Sometimes it's hard to stay "focused" in an atmosphere like that, and if the Vikings can play with discipline, they might be able stay in this game... I think they still have a chip on their shoulder from last seasons finale (for them)... I don't like the betting prospects, but "laying" 5 points seems to be a lot...
Simply on VALUE, I'd tend to take the VIKINGS for (0 units)... IOW - Not worth tossing $$ down on...
Those, as always, are CV's words (not a cut and paste job that you get elsewhere)...
ReplyDeletethere you go! bearish sentiment is not at an extreme : )
ReplyDeletesorry, my 2:31 was in reference to topstep video.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI frankly think people are getting mixed up and interchanging BEARISH SENTIMENT (on the economy), with the markets...
All the chatter you hear is DOUBLE DIP, bad economy, yada, yada...
But the markets have yet to reflect this AT ALL...
Give me a nice little 20% crash here and I'll show you "bearish" on the markets...
People should be downright GIDDY that the markets are holding above 1000 here...
1999 baby!
karen, 2:18,
ReplyDeletehey "lady"...don't you be posting that shet....lol.
as for my real take: all these central bankers are going to have a big giant fail sign stamped on them when this is all over, in the meantime, they will keep playing games....lets call it the dilly dally plan.
my twitter is overwhelming:
ReplyDeletefirst, gotta luv her, AnneMarieTrades says $BIDU on its way back to 82.31
and how about this for interest's sake: BreakingNews
Rodney King is engaged to a member of jury that awarded him a $3.8 million settlement in police beating case http://bit.ly/a7zdjF
Great weekend. Didn't get to the Smokies, but did look at something interesting. Since we moved here, 13 miles from the nearest town, there has been a rock quarry that has been quarrying stone for sale across the US for decades. These guys work 6 days a week, usually, and the quarry is about 3 miles from the house and you can hear the large machines and sometime dynamite.
ReplyDeleteWell, for the last 6 weeks there has been little sound from the quarry, so my wife and I trekked over there to see what was going on Saturday. Nothing was going on. No fresh tracks, and the machines are idle.
CRE? RRE? This stone is used for both building arms...
I've sort of missed DL's comments as well.
ReplyDeletewe break 1090 and i'll revive my avatar...
ReplyDeleteMcF @ 2:44
ReplyDeleteO.K., so let's have an argument over deflation.
@karen
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it... but you can't use that "bottom" avatar anymore...
It makes the market go up...
lol, well, I'm always game for that. to your credit man, you and I disagree all the time, but I think you realize I'm not ever angry at you when we are doing that, just disagree with you on some things...and you never take that personal.
ReplyDeleteCV.. I was thinking lower.. my toes? maybe DL would post more..
ReplyDeleteAlan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/alan-greenspan-admits-america-crony-capitalist-system
"Cronyism you can Believe In"
ReplyDeletehmmm, watch the end of the topstep video today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv
1300 by year end
"put that in your pipe and smoke it"
color me hesistant to put more than just a little tiny bit of capital to work one way or the other. I'm a spectator here.
you know, there is an even bigger spy gap at 106 from last Monday..
ReplyDeleteWe don't like the SPY or the TBT here. Both have some work to do.
ReplyDeleteTLT could easily reach 106.50-107 again before carving out a right shoulder.
more on bonds:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/government-bond-yield-gap/
gathered from topstep that Tim is looking for spx sub 1000 before going higher..
ReplyDeletethemosmitsos
[3/3] Now the technical team of this crew is looking for "new lows <1000 before new highs >1127" keep in mind. Traders & Techs disagree
Tim is, but Danny says they don't agree with Tim, but Tim has made all the best calls on those videos...chalk it up with everything else that appears mixed.
ReplyDeleteI'm not in an S&P 1,300 camp fwiw, but still can't rule out a strong push to the mid/high 1,100's. We'll see if/when we get there how things are looking.
My client will be issuing a statement in due course.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/33-billion-3-year-auction-comes-record-low-yield-079-primary-dealer-takedown-highest-may-200
ReplyDelete@mcF
ReplyDeletePart of my thesis early August was just that...
Move under 1000, then go up and test those (higher than 1130 gaps)...
That's what's bugged me about this whole summer...
The constant pussyfooting around 1010 (avoiding sell-off), pussyfooting at 1040 (avoiding selloff)...
Now we're back up here again and the market needs to go DOWN again to hit those sub 1000 numbers to get back to 1200...
Schitzo!
Practically impossible to trade
I wonder why my web pages won't load and I have to restart everything on market drops.. it seems to happen more than coincidentally.. but I'd have to keep a log to prove it.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletethe lack of a true sell off not long after the flash crash is why I stopped messing with the idea of P3 in the near term....just wasn't lining up...didn't have the right "look"
I'll trade the dollar here, nothing else is really too appealing imo.
OT: An ideal pet is a lot like a trophy wife. They're both adorable, able to perform stunts in wacky outfits, and often cost an arm and a leg to take care of. But because they're so lovable, we often pay exorbitant medical bills should they eat something they're not supposed to. After all, it's just so devastating to have to put them down.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/the-cost-of-having-pets/
It does seem likely that the S&P is going to drift lower this month... maybe to 1050 or so. Certainly don't want to be long with a one-month time frame.
ReplyDeleteOn Tuesday 7th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:
ReplyDeleteRT @Eubiquitous SPX FUT #1090.20# was 9/03 highs...decent area to cover TLT highs SPY LOWS..this reminds me of the US. DOL trade..have to break the "PAIR"..
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ED_F #options $JPM & others bought total 40k EDV 93-95 put sprd from 2 to 2.5
seems there are two big objetives this week, for bulls it's 1127 and for bears 1060.
ReplyDeleteplace yer bets....(or don't)
3:27 PM ET 9/7/10 (MarketWatch) -- In the wake of gold's marginal record high Tuesday, it's entirely possible that bullion will mount a major push into new territory.
ReplyDeleteBut if it does so, it will be without the support of sentiment. That's because the gold timers are already too excited about the metal's recent action. As a result, there is a very weak wall of worry for a bull market to continue climbing.
Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among the shortest-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). As of last Friday's close, this average currently stood at 52.1%.
That's already higher than the vast majority of other readings of the past three years. And the HGNSI is likely to grow even more in the next few hours, as the gold timers digest bullion's new record close.
As contrarian analysts are fond of saying, bear markets like to descend a slope of hope. And the current sentiment environment would seem to be more accurately described as a slope of hope than a wall of worry.
Consider: The HGNSI has risen above the 50% level on five distinct occasions over the past three years. On each of those occasions, gold not only found further upside action difficult, it was trading at lower prices in several weeks' time.
-- Mark Hulbert
I'll take the Raiders & 6.5 and call it a day...
ReplyDeletei hate it when the indices %s correlate so evenly.. especially spx and compq today..
ReplyDeleteI'll take a bloody mary, please..
ReplyDeleteThe DSI on gold and silver got high 90% bulls a few months back, it's likely due for a turn down soon, but no way in hell will I try to short gold, I'm probably crazy enough to try silver though....again.
ReplyDeletesaid it before, those 90% sentiment bulls never mark the immediate turn, gold wasn't any different.
alaidi - All currencies acting "normally" on rapid risk aversion except $GBPUSD inexplicably standing apart. $EURJPY finally does 10630
ReplyDeleteBeige Book and Consumer Credit for tomorrow..
ReplyDeleteLaw firm wants Bank of New York to investigate Countrywide RMBS pools:
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/law-firm-wants-bank-of-new-york-to-investigate-countrywide-rmbs-pools
ok, just want to post this thought out loud because it's been on my mind all day and during my 16 hours of car ride last week.
ReplyDeleteI actually think right now, if you were really heavy into some longs (like JP's reflation portfolio, see here: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-paulson-portfolio-post-mortem-which-we-learn-maestro-himself-advising-jp-future-go) it'd be way harder to sell than it would have been at the April top yes?
I've had emotions like that before....and then you know what happens, your longs drop and you think they'll come back, and you just keep holding them and they don't and you find more reasons why they will, but it just keeps going against you.
thoughts?
harder now to abandon the long strategy than it was in April....do you rationalize by saying something about the Fed?
whats the psychology out there? this is what matters....
Ben, I don't talk to enuf people.. One shrewd fellow I know thinks the market is going to crash. I'll ask my appl buddy tonight at pizza.. he bot around $250, i think.. it's been above and below many times.. he planned as a long term hold.. other people i know wouldn't touch the market with a ten foot pole .. (No pole jokes!)
ReplyDeleteThey will keep on printing and QEasing and throwing currency at the wall until something sticks...
ReplyDeleteThat's where we are. So how about the sideways strategy? Buy some dividend stocks and a few corporate bonds. Activate snooze button....
LB is not convinced of this but thinks it is worth a decent percentage of his funds to make a bet against outright deflation. If there is outright deflation, as a cash-rich debt-free saver, I win anyway.
@mcf (3:53)
ReplyDeleteThe main difference between April and now... IMO...
Is simply technical...
Everyone knows the market is a piece of crap and doesn't reflect anything real...
The only reason to stay long anymore is because TECHNICALLY, it may have held support (1010 or 1040), or whatever...
That thought will persist... until it doesn't...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures $GS on the day was 300x 1,000 IN spu
# futures $ES_F #imbalace is 75 mil to buy spoos make new lows cant do the same thing every day $GS & $ Swiss Bank both selling
McF,
ReplyDeleteWhat were you doing in Ohio anyway?
Business, pleasure, or inlaws?
inlaws DL, was up there for a wedding, had a great time, love hanging with family.
ReplyDelete"They will keep on printing and QEasing and throwing currency at the wall until something sticks"
ReplyDeletewhat an interesting choice of words...have a client that works very closely with one P Fisher at blackrock and when she asked him what their plans were back in 08 his exact words according to her was:
we are throwing wet noodles to see what will stick, we just don't have a real plan
of course, nothing has stuck thus far...mainly because you don't solve a problem with more of the same problem, perhaps you can delay it though, for a time, but the outcome is then that much worse.
LB, I understand your strategy, and you are one guy, so it's easy enough for you to change that, but it would freak me out to follow that for hundreds of people...see my nifty fifty post, that's in the back of my mind, haunting me.
volume was low on the spy today.. trend is still down, need i remind you all.. and last week definitely worked off the oversold condition..
ReplyDeletei want to see 109 flat tomorrow.. 106 should happen but this week but we will see.
C,
ReplyDeleteI would agree with you about the technical difference....pissed as I should have bought the last test of the 1040 for a trade, you could have defined a stop easy on that set-up... I missed it though. andy had that mapped in his charts and I've had quite a lot of success trading off his charts for quite a few months now, I use them way more than EWI to verify my own work of late.
AT is the shet, though I'm going to destroy him this week in fantasy.
McF:
ReplyDeleteLB is nimble. He smells a year end rally, based on a QE2 and extended tax cuts, among other pre-election weaselry. If LB sees a Republican austerity package on the way then it's into Treasuries like a flash...
Ben, I thot I was the sh*t! or at least, according to you, I was posting the sh*t, laughing.
ReplyDeleteK.,
ReplyDeleteI can see a move right back to the 1040-1050 area. It's a range bound market until further notice. Mr Market could look at your top and bottom for ever, and I for one can't say I blame him....
BTW, campers, our FX genius Nic called this reversal after Labor Day quite clearly and accurately.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletethere are several people on my "the shet" list,
8-)
@AT:
ReplyDeleteThx fi the Neely... he's great.
Only had time to check the Dow charts, but I think his price is right... time may be off a tad.
@ Crew
Didnt think I'd pull an Onlooker, did ya?