States Are Poised to Be Next Credit Crisis for US: Whitney
Excerpt: "It reminded me so much of the banks pre-crisis that we just kept working at it," she said. "We couldn't find anything that gave us a clear story, we couldn't find any information that was transparent. So we did it ourselves."
I love Meredith... She's from "Around the Way"
From the SOPHisticated to the SOPHmoric... Here's another Harvard/MIT genius that's been drinking whatever funky kool-aid must come from Charles River water...
Obama as Comeback Kid Just Needs Weaker Dollar: Simon Johnson
Excerpt: "We shouldn’t anticipate any kind of immediate growth miracle in the U.S., but just keep in mind that after its economic collapse in 1997-98, South Korea grew almost 11 percent in 1999, while Russia -- written off in economic terms after its currency, public finances and banking system effectively collapsed in the fall of 1998 -- still managed a 6.4 percent expansion in 1999 and 10 percent in 2000."
Nobody here needs me to point out the flawed logic in using 1997-98 South Korea, & 1998 Russia as your sole basis for constructing an argument that basically gives a "thumbs up" to the idea that if we can manage to trash the dollar, Obama's polling numbers might go up... Do they? Do they?
---
I hope this keeps up... Day 2 of the "Jane Tepper you ignorant slut" patrol (today starring Mish)..
Bashing David Tepper's 'Win-Win' Scenario: Day 2
Excerpt: "Let’s begin today’s round of Tepper bashing with Michael Shedlock, who points out that there is something seriously wrong with the theory behind quantitative easing. Japan is the test case for qualitative easing, having begun QE on March 19, 2001. It took two years to produce a market rally, which then ended in a tear-jerking crash..."
And so the debate continues... Soon to arrive in this discussion panel forum (if it hasn't already)...
Aah yes... and it wouldn't be complete without a little Hugh Hendry (for those of you who 'missed' catching this yesterday)...
Hugh Hendry (full interview)
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/9/28_Hugh_Hendry.html
Strange times, are they not CV?
ReplyDeleteIt seems while the dollar keeps going down, stocks are grinding and/or treading water and/or make late day 'comebacks'.
Very similar to another period of time.
Also, as the death watch is one for the dollar, according to any MSM report, treasury yield keep grinding lower. So I ask, is inflation or trashed USD the real risk here?
I'm highly skeptical.
1.38 area is the .618 retrace of the November move lower on EUR/USD. We hit 1.364 overnight.
Things are about to get interesting again. The question will become is it a:
2 of C higher
start of C lower
start of minor 3 lower
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39415142
ReplyDeleteBernanke must be really scratching his head, asking, "Prices are down. Rates are down. Where is the buying?"
As we've been saying all along:
You can't force banks to lend and you can't force people to borrow.
@McHappy
ReplyDeleteThis is like last May (in reverse)...
The Euro kept sinking to a technical area (which you remember, I'd identified as early as February, yet Goldman & Citi analysts were coming public with comments trying to get people to go the other way...
The final little "capitulation" move came on the EXACT day I'd predicted (and together with the Greek & other sovereign credit problems)...
Of course when Goldman, Citi, & even George Soros all jumped on to that idea and said the Euro was TOAST, then it miraculously found a bottom and has been trending up ever since...
I expect the same to happen in reverse now (or pretty soon)...
Everyone knows that the days of ALL fiat are numbered...
So it's like this 3 stooges movie where the rowboat is sinking and everybody keeps running to one side of the boat, then the other to delay the sinking...
But BB is in control people (he's surely got more "magic oars" up his sleeve)...
Vince Lombardi-
ReplyDeletethey don't make 'em like that anymore- Green Bay in for the win- QB sneak final seconds of the game- and Lombardi says:
"We gambled and we won."
juxtaposed to Belicheck going for it on 4th- his end of the field- Brady pass too short- Colts march in w/ a short field and win-
gambled and lost?
Regarding: David Tepper's 'Win-Win' Scenario: Day 2-
I saw a headline that said- "The Tepper Rally"
you see folks- it's just that easy- kind of like that book "The Secret"-
you only need believe
@McHappy
ReplyDelete"Bernanke must be really scratching his head"
---
I found a picture of him doing exactly that
http://eben.com/press/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/nytimes_wo_web_tightywhitey.jpg
@ahab
ReplyDelete"The Tepper Rally" & the Obama Economic Recovery illustrated...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfiY2nbV9RI&feature=related
CV,
ReplyDeletethanks for the MW clip, she's the best, who was it talking about muni's yesterday....oh yes, it was Survivor Capitalists.
Also, finally got to listen to HH, I'm not getting it word for word but his comment at the very start was money, it was along the lines of:
I've got this $2b short position so I don't like to hear this stuff about how they are doing more business, but the attitude that things can't get worse, well,....my understand of markets is that on a regular basis it makes the impossible, very possible.
good luck today everyone
excuse me for a bit- just need to peruse the Daily Kos-
ReplyDeletea must read- before I head over TBP-
and that damn Tea Party- who the hell do they think they are- complaining?
whiner's obviously-
if you are not championing causes like feeding the hungry and housing the homeless- well- STFU- because those are the only worthwhile causes
and free healthcare- (because it's paid for by taxes)-
hmmm . . .free? paid for by taxes?
oh . . .I get it- it's a riddle (or possibly a joke)
Normally with futures down I'd expect to see USTs being bought. But they're being sold. Odd. Or is that China?
ReplyDeletealso, I hope people did not miss the fine insight this morning on CNBC where Becky took a great amount of time to chat with St. Warren on his jet about the tie he got from Obama (lots of shucks and laughing of course, I've also noticed Buffett has taken to not combing his hair, does much for his public image of the 'sweet old man')
ReplyDeletebut the best part, the BEST part, was when he told Becky about how he loved this tie Jay-Z had, and he kept telling Jay-Z he liked it, so Jay-Z took the tie off and gave it to Warren! Awesome right!!!
CNBC: First in business (and ties) worldwide.
good morning! fantastic post, CV, really..
ReplyDeleteseems we are do for a lackluster open. i've been pondering from where or what (credit/leverage?) the $$$ is coming from to get the indices to these levels.. in 2007/2008 we found it was all leverage.. would they really let that happen again?
ben, isn't there chart somewhere or at some exchange that measures stocks bot on margin?
speaking of doomed fiat currencies.. anyone see the irony of buying gld and miners (gold in the ground) on margin?? we found out how well that worked in 2008..
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThe 'funny' thing about the MW interview was... Although MB did a pretty decent job of standing out of the way and actually listening...
In the last minute it was basically... "Well what's that mean for the markets? Which stocks would you buy here?"
CNBC anchors are laughably clueless...
I feel sorry for anyone who bought GMCR yesterday-
ReplyDeletethose damn little SEC investigations (I thought they didn't do those anymore?)
And any buyer I am sure was expecting the earnings beat to cash in on the upside-
tsk, tsk, tsk . . . silly buyers
@karen
ReplyDeleteKD laterally touched on the subject of the "gold vs. fiat" situation...
I liked most of his points (which were broad)...
Roughly speaking, his general thoughts are the same as my own... (so I suppose I am biased)...
The thread is down the column at this point, so I'll link it here...
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167754
Warren Buffet-
ReplyDeletethat silly 'ol billionaire-
gotta love 'em
speaking of gold-
ReplyDeletehas anyone looked at GLL? I know Denninger is not a big fan of gold
Karen,
ReplyDeleteyes, I'm pretty sure I've seen that chart before, I'll see if I can find it. I know I have seen recently that there has been a pretty significant uptick in retail call option buying of late. I haven't used any margin here for anyone for a long time, I'm not even sure what the rates are right now.
CV,
yep, MB always ends up with that question....she even does it to Bob, he basically says to her, yeah, I think the world is gonna come close to ending on this next down turn, and before he can finish....well so what are you buying!
CV.. read what he said.. thanks. seemed he liked that Bill Gross piece, too.
ReplyDeleteHeadline: U.S. stocks saddled with modest early losses as investors anticipate Fed steps
09/29/2010 09:42:42 AM
Tepper Rally to continue! Pull out your DOW 11K hats!
@karen
ReplyDeleteAs always, my "TAKE" on things (on whether it's good or bad structurally), is based on a long term view...
Not whether or not we mat see a sudden knee jerk spike in prices...
long term?
ReplyDeleteI measure success in miliseconds bitchez
>> juxtaposed to Belicheck going for it on 4th- his end of the field- Brady pass too short
ReplyDeleteJust as a reminder: on replay, you could see the REF spotted the ball *short* of where it actually was when forward motion stopped.
I think the world is gonna come close to ending on this next down turn, and before he can finish....well so what are you buying!
ReplyDeleteROR
They did that to Taleb a while back- what a riot- the dude's an options trader- taking losses daily w/ hopes of payoffs on black swans-
what's he going to say to CNBCs audience-
"yeah- here's another guaranteed loss- unless there is another terrorist attack" (or some other unknown event)
@karen
ReplyDeleteI'll "summarize" KD (in Cv's view)...
- The debt service on government borrowing is perilously close to unserviceable...
- If rates go up (even to say 5%), it will IMMEDIATELY become unserviceable (without eliminating and and all entitlements - which would basically crap out a large portions of Americans)...
- In any scenario, there are no safe asset classes... What might be safe? Physical land sufficient to grow enough food to survive...
- Bernanke doesn't have this under his control. He wants you to think he does, but he does not. His "nuclear option" forces him to monetize roughly thirty trillion of rolling debt. If he does it, the currency instantly collapses and the government very well might go with it.
- Geithner definitely doesn't have this under his control. The Government can only give him that control by ceasing deficit spending. We're talking about a 50% cut in the Federal Budget - including entitlements. Are you willing to accept that? You're going to have to be - because ultimately, that's going to have to happen.
- And Obama doesn't have this under control at all. His only mantra? Spend more money we don't have...
- Your wealth - all of it - will be lost
ALL OF IT...
Of course, Madden frequently asked: "why run a route short of the first down marker and expect the receiver to run for it?" So, you could fault NE for that. But, maybe all Brady's other options were closed.
ReplyDelete...and that's a good metaphor. Do you think this country has any choices better than cheapening the dollar? I don't. Receivers 1-3 are covered. Have to dump it off to the short route.
I.e., I don't object to cheapening the dollar. I object to how it's done (giving new money to people in exchange for crappy assets that *they* bought -- grossly unfair to people who made no such reckless decisions).
wunsacon-
ReplyDeletemaybe a kick would have been the better strategy
if we are going to get into football rules lets talk about how the Raiders got screwed out of a Super Bowl because of some BS calls, and I'm not talking about Franco Harris
ReplyDelete"Months after winning $1M in lottery, man wins $2M"
ReplyDelete[the winner]recalled a dream six years ago in which he won a lot of money. Even after the $1 million win in June, he didn't feel like the dream was complete.
I bet he has a copy of The Secret on his nightstand
>> maybe a kick would have been the better strategy
ReplyDeleteKick Peyton in the groin (to prevent him from mounting a scoring drive) and get ejected from the game? I didn't think of that.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThe FF trade I proposed?
CV needs to make some moves here... I'm not Jerry Jones you know!
"Do you think this country has any choices better than cheapening the dollar? I don't."
ReplyDeleteok, I'm really going to try hard and not freak out about this comment but are you kidding me???, I'm not even sure where to start, this idea that we have no other options besides devaluation of the currency is absolutely insane, has anyone ever studied the US economy in the 1800's? are you seriously promoting the collapse of the currency in the name of reflation?
perhaps I should crawl in a hole for a few years before I completely lose my mind.
The Patriots defense is garbage (especially in road games)...
ReplyDeleteYou do not... I repeat... DO NOT want to put the ball in the hands of Peyton Manning with time on the clock when you have a garbage defense...
If you ran the "calculus" on it... The SUCCESS rate of Manning in that situation was in the high 80 percentile...
Chances of you converting 4th & short were actually less...
Belchick made the right call...
"are you seriously promoting the collapse of the currency in the name of reflation?"
ReplyDeleteCV-INTERVENES
No - don't you get it?
The MIT "author" simply thinks we need to trash the dollar in the name of saving the Obama Presidency...
get it straight!
It's NOT about America or Americans... It's about Obama...
Now here's a 5 min candle I can get excited about...thanks for waiting for me to get home from preschool.
ReplyDeletewunsacon-
ReplyDeleteI never thought of that strategy- ror
CV-
dude I just proposed a trade to Coppie Nooners for Tolbert-
I want to hold onto Ryan Mathews- I was pinning on my hopes on him (and Schaub)
CV @ 10:16-
like I said- "gambled and lost"-
I don't think it was necessarily a bad call- however- it would have been much more heroic had they made it(-:!!
Today feels a lot like yesterday so far...or meybe its just premature dementia. This market is driving me crazy.
ReplyDeleteall,
ReplyDeletejohnny is starting to call again about stocks....this hasn't happened in a long time, stay tuned.
3 calls today, two of them want bee doooo.
CV,
ReplyDeleteWhatever....I'm fuming about that statment right now....is that what people actually think?
I need to quit this business, and fast.
California and Illinois are in a class by themselves, but not in a good way. (via @ManhattanInst) http://bit.ly/aXSQMb
ReplyDeletehave no fear everyone-
ReplyDelete"US Deficit-Cut Panel Convenes"
they'll get it figured out
my new ticker!! YCS (I want some : )
ReplyDeleteKaren -- loved this quote: "Their well-documented records of fiscal mismanagement..." gee, you think?
ReplyDeleteI live outside Chicago...it is amazing to me how willfully blind people can be to this situation. There are so many people/businesses/institutions that are owed serious state funds that just won't be coming. Hubby keeps trying to steer his company away from state contracts, but it is hard to get people to see that they should turn down work.
Homemade chart candy from CV...
ReplyDeletenew chart in thread
Ben, apparently NASDAQ puts out a monthly chart of margin activity.. i only found a paid subscription site offering it so far. I'll ask my friend at MS if he's seen any data, too.
ReplyDeleteOh, sweet! But that chart is just the point.. RSI can apparently run negative for longer than we can remain sane...
ReplyDeletethemosmitsos
ReplyDeleteOver here in the real world TYZ is setting up a breakout? while DXY setting up breakdown? Gotta go back2 school & learn Obamanomics
@karen
ReplyDeleteWhat I like more than the RSI are the FIB "time" ratios (and how they stick to the GANNS)...
Jennifer, did you mention EUO yesterday? it's also an ultra short the euro but with more volume..
ReplyDeleteI was looking for a short or ultra short the aussie but couldnt find..
ReplyDeleteI didn't -- I think LB did, but I saw the comment and I'll add it to my arsenal :-)
ReplyDeletegotta roll-
ReplyDeleteBlanda- sad to seem him go
Eagles/Skins should be interesting this weekend- also Colts/Steelers-
anyone thinking of shorting gold anytime soon (or silver)?
all have a good day
yikes.. no where to go but up???
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$NYAD
or...
ReplyDeletenew chart in thread
different view of same fractal...
Liberty Mutual postpones $1 billion-plus IPO, citing economic and market conditions
ReplyDelete09/29/2010 11:07:42 AM
Great chart!!! am trying to print that out..
ReplyDeleteKaren -- I didn't realize that Liberty Mutual was planning to demutualize...I would think that staying a mutual would be a big selling feature for them.
ReplyDeleteArt Cashin On The "October Syndrome" And Broken Seasonal Patterns http://bit.ly/96uM5m
ReplyDelete"But for heavens sake, the only thing we don't need while we sit here biting our nails is to be told by someone who manifestly has no idea what he is talking about that the danger has already past, even as we slide, inch by inch, onwards and downwards towards the chasm that gapes beneath."
ReplyDeletehttp://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/2010/09/and-then-there-were-none.html
i am dying here.. are we at a standstill, or what?!
ReplyDeleteI am a little disturbed that people have developed visceral reactions to the Tepper interview rather than taking it as a gift, which it was. How do people in the investment community make money? I look at it in two general ways. The follow the lemmings idea, like the tech bubble, here you have to be able to see the cliff, and stop in time. The other way people make a LOT of money is the blood in the street concept as Tepper outlined in the interview. He's not the first. Soros betting against the British currency. Billionaires created by betting on the subprime crisis. Shorting homebuilders. And so forth.
ReplyDeleteGuys, who cares if Tepper made money? I don't. Here was a guy who keeps a low profile who shared with us how he did it, and it can only add to our education. In the modern economic textbook that is today, this was a good homework assignment. Is the world undergoing a massive credit deleveraging? Sure. All here understand that. But the Fed is forcing rates to a level that is forcing money into equities to some degree, and to deny these facts is wrong.
I think this is probably the blog I get the most from in the entire investing blogosphere.Why? Because of the sharing of ideas with people. Not to make the wittiest comment, driest retort, or meanest put-down. We need to realize that ALL the information we get is important. Could he be wrong? Sure. But he shared with us his concepts of today's market, how he thinks the market should respond to the massive continuing Fed intervention, and we should just digest this without bias or overthinking. He is amoral about Fed intervention. All he wants is profit. Accept it at that.
Bruce, looking at a ten year chart of the $spx, makes me think.. Tepper was advocating the former idea, btw.. the lemmings idea, like the tech bubble.. LOL.
ReplyDeleteBruce, do you realize what drove the $SPX to the highs in 2007? it wasn't the economy (which was actually quite robust then, running on false wealth, but running nonetheless); it was leverage.. i.e., hot air. Obviously, this is just my opinion.. obviously valuations don't matter until they do.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Edward Hugh article. My favorite part was right before the part you quoted;
"According to one popular analogy currently circulating , the EuroArea countries could be likened to a group of 16 Alpine climbers scaling the Matterhorn who find themselves tightly roped together in appalling weather conditions. One of the climbers - Greece – has lost his footing and slipped over the edge of a dangerous precipice. As things stand, the other 15 can easily take the strain of holding him dangling there, however uncomfortable it may be for them, but they cannot quite manage to pull their colleague back up again. So, as the day advances, others, wearied by all the effort required, start themselves to slide. First it is Ireland who moves closest to the edge, getting nearer and nearer to the abysss with each passing moment. And just behind Ireland comes Portugal, while some way further back Spain lies Spain, busily consoling itself that it is in no way as badly off as the others who have already lost there footing. But if Spain cannot hold out, and all four finally go over, each dragged down by the weight of those who preceded them, then this will leave some 12 countries supporting four, something that the May bailout package only anticipated as a worst-case scenario. In the event that this is finally what happens, Mr Reglin will certainly find that the quiet life has come to an end for him, and that he has plenty of work to do, as will Mr Trichet’s successor at the ECB."
Well said Bruce. If Tepper thinks the Fed can save the world, there are probably many who (still) do as well. I, for one, continue to be stunned by how long the whole house of cards stays propped up, so I guess I need to be more tuned in to the Teppers of the world. I thought that it was obvious that the FASB changes were bogus...instead, if I had just closed my eyes and bought BAC at $2 I'd be sunning on a beach in Maui instead of chatting with you lovely people.
ReplyDeleteThey've been selling treasuries just to keep the market up today. Failure to defeat 1150 before weekly claims and GDP is a no-no. Shady azz.
ReplyDeleteJennifer.. that is the crux of my disillusionment with Tepper.. thank you! and, like Tepper, i thot buying after 666 was a no brainer.. You didn't know me when I used to tell everyone the Fed and Treasury were pulling a "Do Over." They just replaced the money that was lost.. We know who benefited from that.. but the underlying problems are still there.. The biggest of which is LACK OF JOBS.
ReplyDeleteSome IPO thoughts from Yelnick:
ReplyDelete2010 started with high hopes for IPOs. The economy had been recovering since the summer of 2009, and investment bankers combed through the ranks of venture capitalists to drum up filings for tech IPOs. Early on over 9x more IPOs were filed than in recent years, but as it has turned out, US IPOs have raised the least amount relative to filings since 1999. More than half the filings have yet to complete, and over 60% have left IPO buyers with a loss, with 2/3 of them raising less than desired.
anyway, the fed really cannot control interest rates.. the bond market is HUGE. China probably has more control over our dollar and interest rates than the fed and treasury.
ReplyDeleteThe IPO topic is something else I woke up thinking about this morning.. I remember when the market kept going up and up and up in 2007 till MS finally put out a paper justifying it because there was too much money chasing too few stocks..
ReplyDeletegone for a few.. don't let anything happen without me!!
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeleteyou've had me consider Tepper in a way I likely would not have on my own. That said, because I enjoy the discussion, let me try and offer a continued objective critique:
1. I prefer to learn from analysts and managers who's process is objective, rigorous, and repeatable. What Tepper offered in that video was instead a subjective speculation about the Fed's actions and his expected outcome as a result of said actions. Remember that this process has absolutely zero historical precedent or proof that it "works", so his call was purely speculation, which is fine....but this is the exact opposite of what I try to emulate as a trader. I have no use for quotes such as "buy when there is blood in the streets" because it's all relative....buy when there is how much blood? I need something I can clearly define before I take action on it, it's just the process I require, others are different.
2. I didn't find that he had anything "new" to say, though I suppose I'll admit it was a good reminder of the nets thinking. it's easy to see that many people that made the same call as him acted BEFORE the Fed....which still brings me back to whether or not the Fed actually drove the rally, or if it was the Animal Spirits that did so. I follow PIMCO very closely because I have tens of millions of dollars tied up in both PTTAX and PSSDX. Bill Gross oversees $1 trillion in AUM to Teppers $12 billion. More importantly though, Bill Gross has been way early about front running because he's been doing it since 08, and he didn't lose any money that year either. I sort of felt like Tepper wasn't really saying anything Gross hadn't already said, just in a more cryptic manner, he was really just repeating what so many others, John Paulson, countless other hedgies, mf managers and pension managers, had already said.
So, I think that's why you see the comments you do, it might have been more of an ah hah moment for some than it was for others.
Probably. It is always a problem for me to overcome my emotions in my investment decisions. And one of the things I took from the Tepper interview is that I would bet you my new Merrills that he is one of the most emotionless individuals making investment decisions that you could find in the state of New Jersey.
ReplyDeleteIs being emotionless a good thing in general? No. But I bet it is essential in becoming Buffett or Tepper when considering investments.
as for him being amoral about Fed intervention, I can't ever take that view myself in the name of making money.
ReplyDeleteI work with simple people, I have pride about the fact that I actually care about them and their well being, I know what the Fed is doing can only hurt them in the fullness of time. This is everything that is wrong with Wall St. everything is about short term gains and damn the long term consequence and anyone that gets i money's way.
no doubt Bruce, having control of your emotions is crucial to any success in markets. For me, I find I'm less emotional when I have really done my homework, then you act on your analysis, fully accepting that sometimes you'll be wrong anyway.
ReplyDeleteand also, it isn't only you that has the emotional issues about investments, it's everyone, Buffett included, though some less than others,...it's just how our brains are wired, and leading neuroscience studies are proving this to be true.
ReplyDeleteone more comment, isn't it interesting to everyone how his comments have caught fire but Gross' comments that were similar really didn't, or if anything more people were angry with Gross.
ReplyDeleteIt's social mood peeps. Tepper was different than Gross in that he used terms like "it's that easy" and the hype around his billion dollar pay-day. Is it any wonder this went viral during a rally? Gross otoh, when he's discussed it not only was he more crypitc, but it was always along with the new normal discussion, which positive social mood has 0 use or tolerance for.
Reminds me of how certain statements above others would get the masses more pumped about RRE back in the day.
Ben at 12:25.. I started reading that thinking it was from Bruce! and I was shaking me head in concurrence as I felt you were taking the words from my mouth.. "What Tepper offered in that video was instead a subjective speculation about the Fed's actions and his expected outcome as a result of said actions."
ReplyDeleteI am such a poor communicator. I just don't know how to put into words what my brain is thinking : (
Any, Tepper's whole QE and government backstop arguments kinda fall flat when you realize it is all a confidence game..
@Karen,
ReplyDeletere: margin, still can't find a chart, BUT, remember this....
look at the date:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1982327,00.html
Ben, you just scared the HECK out of me.. 1220 in April to 1010 in June.. yeah, buy on margin.. lose everything..
ReplyDeleteI remember the sharp bond man I met in first class on Virgin America.. was flying high as a young man in 1987.. till the crash.. He's never bot another stock.. ever.. essentially had to start over.
Uh-OH! http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/09/mr-topstepcharts-929-not-short-in-house.html
At least Tepper wasn't advocating margin!!
ReplyDeleteAnyway, last time Feds scared the shorts out to the market it didnt work out very well.
and so the question becomes is sentiment bullish like that today? Is anyone so bold as to write an article stating that it isn't "really" risky for young people to buy on margin right now?
ReplyDeleteseems a bit more mixed to me but bullish undertones are still always revealed in most pundits statements, I doubt I need to provide any examples.
Fascinating though that after the worst decade ever in US stocks, we get articles like that one.
I'm gonna dig up that Prechter from last April about what he said people would be saying when the rally hit their targets they laid out in Feb 2009....if what Tepper had to say was meaninigful for you, then Bob's comments should be even more so. I'm going to find it now.
the exact quote from the EWT was a lot more powerful than this but here's how Bob described what he said in an interview from this June:
ReplyDelete"On February 23, 2009 in the Elliott Wave Theorist, I said that we were almost at the bottom; that ideally the S&P should get down in the 600s before turning up; and that the Dow was going to rally from that low up to about 10,000. We put that target out a few days after the low. The main thing we said at the time was that it was going to be only a partial retracement, in other words a bear market rally. By the end of it, we said people would be bullish on the economy, there would be positive economic numbers, investors would think we have made the turn, the Fed would take credit for having saved the financial system, and there would be optimism across the board. All of this has happened."
Now consider, both he and Tepper are right about the outcome they thought would occur, though they have thus far taken completely different actions as a result of their outlooks because the end game for them is different.
Stay tuned, show isn't over yet.
The Confidence Game: "Plosser said he opposes asset buying under current conditions because he worries policymakers would squander public confidence in the Fed's ability to combat deflationary expectations by acting prematurely."
ReplyDeletethis is fantastic!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/29/hold-us-to-death.html
Excellent, Ben @ 1:24, thank you. What happened to CV??
ReplyDeletesaw that Shaw was cutting 10% of it's workforce this morning.. this is why:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/de-shaw-cuts-2010-9
he's out in his yard digging for silver
ReplyDeleteoh man do I love giving him balls about that.
I can't short the aussie but I can short the yen.. hmm.
ReplyDeleteI've always more or less agreed with Kid Dynamite, I certainly do with his comment here:
ReplyDeleteKidDynamite Says:
September 29th, 2010 at 10:48 am
@Dow – well, I don’t think that’s easy to do, but that brings up another point that I think is essential to address, which someone mentioned earlier when they said that most investors are “victims” in the market.
See, I think that most investors in the stock market 1) do little/no work on their investments 2) have little/no clue about their investments 3) expect that they can buy a few different ETFs or mutual funds and watch their money double every 8 years or so.
Then, when things go bad, they get religious and start screaming about how unfair it is!
___________________________________
Me: I think we've heard this screaming haven't we, it goes like this
The markets are rigged! (often stated with great conviction by people that are, oddly enough, still involved in said markets)
ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo: FX volatility bad
ReplyDeleteWritten by Jamie Coleman
September 29, 2010 at 16:35 GMT
Reuters reports that ECB managing board member Gonzalez-Paramo calls forex volatility bad. Exchange rates can change but not to the point of being volatile, he says.
There was very little attempt by the ECB to talk down the EUR last year as it surged above 1.50, so the early attempt by a high ECB official to talk it down at the 1.36 level is significant. Shows you how much they fear derailing the recovery, in my view.
I would suggest people read that thread over at TBP, draw your own conclusions about what HFT is and is not based on observations from Kid D and peterpeter, they clearly understand this better than Barry, which I'm sure is really hard for some people to swallow.
ReplyDelete@mcf (1:32)
ReplyDeleteNo... apparently someone ELSE around town was digging for silver and hit the fiber optic cable lines because my internet just went down for the past 2 hours...
And as for SLV... Well screw me because here's the SLV chart since I made those comments over the summer...
new chart in thread :-)
oh dude, I'm well aware of SLV, thing tore me up this year, it was a very good call you made, I just like to pretend you never made it and razz you about it. it's what I do.
ReplyDeleteI gotta have some fun somehow when markets are boring.
LOVED this retort to BR from KidD -
ReplyDeletebut let’s talk about the fixes:
“3. Return to the Specialist System: The Nasdaq-afication of the NYSE turned out to be a terrible mistake. We want human specialists matching orders, making a market, stepping in during a collapse.”
specialists step in during a collapse? like in 1987? Markets have always crashed and will always crash regardless of who is making the market. you cannot legislate liquidity (you can’t force people to provide it)
“8. Decimalization: Give up the decimals, and return to fractions. This would allow investment houses trading desks to earn a decent profit. And that might reduce their need for reckless speculation.”
Now you’re suddenly concerned about the investment houses? Oy vey. Anyway, do you think that would be better for the individual investor? paying teenies and eighths instead of pennies? really? no thanks – I’ll take penny spreads all day long.
2:00 PM ET 9/29/10 | BusinessWire
ReplyDeleteFedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) will increase shipping rates for FedEx Express by a net average of 3.9% for U.S. domestic and U.S. export services effective January 3, 2011.
The full average rate increase of 5.9% will be partially offset by adjusting the fuel price threshold at which the fuel surcharge begins, reducing the fuel surcharge by two percentage points.
CV, you are funny.. sorry about your internet tho.. that can be a frustration.. might have saved you some $$ tho but not letting you short this market : )
ReplyDeleteI don't wade into the HFT debate much because the truth is, I don't know shit about that stuff other than some real basics, I don't think many people do know about it, but those two are clearly involved.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, it was tweeted that Bespoke is reporting a near golden cross for Dow.. couldn't follow link but i did find this of interest since i bot dto again, http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/29/the-us-oil-glut.html
ReplyDelete"my internet just went down for the past 2 hours"
ReplyDeleteno worries man, I heard a proposal not long ago from some smartie (probably a closet PhD.) at TBP that what we needed to help along the recovery was high speed internet in every home....so just wait man, once Obama passes Universal Internet you'll never have to worry again, you can do your own Peggy J video.
Better than Bush buddy, but in the meantime, you know it was his fault that your internet was down....right?
oh god, lets hope the GC doesnt' happen again bespoke, remember the last time, every armchair tech in the world can see the MA's....was a huge bust.
ReplyDeletewe know this already..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-sp-500-gold-2010-9
just noted something TOO WIERD.. pull up a dow daily candle chart..
ReplyDeletecompare July 26 and ensuing candles to Sept 20-29
Papua, Indo, 7.2.. no word of a tsunami yet.
ReplyDelete"Nasdaq-afication"???
ReplyDeleteSounds like something that happens to ben after one too many frou frou drinks...
lucky that i clicked on this story on mortgage apps, accidentally:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/39419960
Just a reminder in case there is some obfuscation in tomorrows GDP number: http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp_full.png
ReplyDeleteAR, no worries on that.. the Fed has your back!
ReplyDeleteRSI's are showing divergence...
ReplyDeleteQuick - shove a mike in Bernanke's face!
great gossip!!
ReplyDeleteGoldman Sachs threatens to quit Europe
Lloyd Blankfein, the outspoken chief executive of Goldman Sachs, has issued a thinly veiled threat that the bank will shift operations out of Europe if the regulatory crackdown on the industry becomes too tough.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/793cb220-cbf2-11df-bd28-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss
rolls eyes
ReplyDeleteoh, no, CV.. wait till you see the graph I just got showing private pension funds under-exposed to equities.. it's the fuel for the next rally.. will email it to you.
ReplyDeletedry tinder just waiting to be ignited...
ReplyDeleteall that cash on the sidelines...
Here's some more cash on the sidelines... Just waiting to JUMP IN...
http://www.heyitsourwebsite.com/three%20card%20monte%20ireland%20oct%2009.jpg
there seems to be this creeping desire for a lot of people to make a "cash on the sidelines" argument of late....it's spun in a different way now because nobody will directly make that statment anymore since this fallacy was long ago destroyed for its nonsense, the market is an exchange, not a hot air baloon that gets bigger as more money flows into it.
ReplyDeleteSimply put, I think some people are confusing sector rotation for liquidity.
it's also funny that equity insects are still doing phrases like "under-exposed to equities".....and this was in relation to pensions!
What's the goldilocks allocation to equities Larry? When is the capital allocated to equities "just right" in a secular bear market?
karen, and CV,
ReplyDeletehey thanks for hanging out with me all day
ror
Looks like someone got the numbers early...
ReplyDeletewhere the hell is LB to tell us to sell the news on GDP.
ReplyDeletePeter Boockvar: The current dynamic in the US Treasury market are quite amazing, albeit highly distorted, as on one hand we have the influence of rising commodity prices and an ever depreciating US$ and the other, the Fed’s printing press and the deflation believers.
ReplyDeletesitting on bench on 5th ave.. LOL
ReplyDeleteI bet the I-man is having a little fun right about now....funk soul brother
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteI'm hanging too....at least reading....
ok Bruce, seemed like we were a party of three for a bit here, perhaps others are lurking.
ReplyDeleteyup.
ReplyDeleteHere's yet another (longer) view of those charts I was putting up earlier...
ReplyDeletenew chart in thread
yeah, well, if i am annoying some of you with my constant posting, i can stop.. and I apologize.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeletejust us and the algos (waiting for a chance to trade this market)...
I was watching one of those "sword fishing" shows last night on tv...
It seems just about as hard to find fish as it does to find the right place to go short this market...
@karen
ReplyDeleteit doesn't bother me...
Gives us something to do while watching the algos battle it out...
I'm good at finding the wrong places to short this market...
ReplyDeleteThe mine is a harsh mistress..
ReplyDeletejen -
ReplyDeleteditto
Of course, the GREAT thing, I suppose, would be if you were someone that was paid to do a job (like an IT job or something)...
ReplyDeleteAnd while you were sitting around not doing your job (but getting paid for it)...
You just hung around and blogged all day...
That would be SWEET!
Me? You?
Well I suppose we get some ironing done (and some leaves raked in the process)...
Not "stealing" from anyone here...
cv -
ReplyDeletemulti-tasking?
keeping an eye on the VIX here team....looking forward to tomorrow and we havent' even closed yet today
ReplyDelete@jen
ReplyDeleteI suppose (3:03) would have been a good time to short...
CV
ReplyDeleteYou know you wrong ;-)
Ring. Ring. Hello? It's Katherine. Click.
"yeah, well, if i am annoying some of you with my constant posting, i can stop.. and I apologize"
ReplyDeletewas thinking the same about myself, I always feel stupid when I post four or five times in a row and nobody is around.
Ben22 @ 3:23
ReplyDeleteNo one else is lurking, I can assure you.
Karen -- any topstep tweets? I saw on another blog rumors that there will be big equities selling/rebalancing tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSomeday Jennifer CAT is going to be an epic short, $80 bucks? hilarious. but we should wait for the trend to change again. I would really like to see an assault on 1158 or we just start to correct already, I need to know if this is just wave 2 of C or something more ominous.
ReplyDeletewell well, now I know what to do when nobody is posting.
ReplyDelete"was thinking the same about myself, I always feel stupid when I post four or five times in a row and nobody is around."
ReplyDelete---
It takes time to go thru and read a few links before coming back...
AnneMarieTrades - Took some $GLD and some $SLV profits off the table $$
ReplyDeletei posted the topstep vid earlier.. will check if i missed something..
JPM admitting same problems w/ forclosure docs that GMAC/Ally has.....oops.
ReplyDeleteSorry -- must have missed it...i'll go back.
ReplyDeletemrtopstep: $ES_F #futures imbalance HEADS UP hearing very big numbers for sale tomorrow for the 3rd Q re balance YOU hear it here first
ReplyDelete27 minutes ago via TweetDeck
AAPL looks like its in its flash crash formation.
ReplyDeleteJennifer, wishful thinking skewing your view?? LOL.. it's 20% of spx.. fed will backstop it, Laughing even more now.. : )
ReplyDeleteJenn, i just wanna confirm yesterday's trip to 275.. then you can buy more!
ReplyDeleteJenn, here it is for you..
ReplyDeletehttp://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/29/mr-topstep-intraday-charts-929-not-a-short-in-the-house/
Well, that's what I saw elsewhere, but its good to have confirmation...we shall see, I've been on the wrong side of those "rebalancing" things before...big one supposedly in the last week of October of '08 -- I'd made my goal for the year that week and gave a big chunk of it back w/in 3 days.
ReplyDeleteWhy is 1140 being protected?
ReplyDeletewhatever you do, do not look at nflx today..
ReplyDeletetoo late...I had a nice profit in some NFLX puts earlier today...stopped out at break even when I was out of the house. Karl D had a great post about how their whole business model is doomed to fail a day or two ago.
ReplyDeleteAR, was resistance, now support! remember that trading channel??
ReplyDeletebesides.. everyone likes a round number.. spx 1150.00, for instance.
ReplyDeleteSo, this miserable action that we had for most of the day today, would you call that a coil? And, if so, and it broke down, would you consider that a false break most likely to be reversed?
ReplyDeletewas a lot of VXX put action at CBOE today for December.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you who like AAPL's
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYm3vZ7aUGg
Because a movie rental company should trade for $170/share. And I like movies. Does no one go to the library anymore?
ReplyDeletehmm, probably nothing: 3:42 PM ET JPMorgan To Delay Some Foreclosures Pending Review-CNBC >JPM
ReplyDeleteDow Jones
I didn't think VXX could get any lower.
ReplyDeleteSantelli on 7 year auction:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232
@Jenn
ReplyDelete"Does no one go to the library anymore?"
All the libraries are being closed these days because the states & munis are broke...
Don't you listen to Meredith Whitney? :-)
whats a libary? is there an app for that?
ReplyDeleteFinally got I and I mojo back inna full swing today...
ReplyDeleteJAH was good to the I.
Nothing personal to any of yall, but I seem to trade best when I isolate myself, dont read news, and stay quiet...
So I'll have to lay off the intraday chatter.
Now, off to mow I and I acre.
Enjoy the afternoon!
vxx, two days ago, was lower : )
ReplyDeletezerohedge has a good article on the JPM business -- its as bad as you could imagine -- they have actually forged court summons documents, so that the people being forclosed did not get any notice of the proceedings. What a country.
ReplyDeleteGotta go peeps...
ReplyDeleteI'll check in later in da Corner...
Our library has cut back staff and hours, but still there...pretty bad if a library system has that has won national awards has to close. Of course, my phone only makes phone calls, so what do I know.
ReplyDeleteBen22 @ 4:01
ReplyDeleteKindle comes close.
Lotta free downloads available.
I read a piece by reggie middleton not that long ago about JPM that literally gave me chills.
ReplyDeleteDL,
ReplyDeletespeaking of, have you taken a look at the PlayBook tablet yet from RIMM.
If so, what do you think?
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/29/back-and-fill/
ReplyDeleteBen22 @ 4:10
ReplyDeleteI did see a couple of articles on it.
It's probably O.K.. I suppose for someone who owns a blackberry phone and likes it, the tablet would be something to consider.
http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-admits-one-of-our-employees-signed-thousands-of-foreclosures-without-reading-them-2010-9
ReplyDeleteAIG Plans Debt Sale Within Year, Chairman Miller Says (Update1)
ReplyDeleteSept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. plans its first debt offering since the insurer’s bailout two years ago as the firm moves toward independence from the U.S. government, Chairman Steve Miller said today.
AIG is “nearing the conclusion” of talks with regulators about its strategy to repay taxpayers and the insurer’s board is scheduled to meet today to vote on the plan, Miller said today at a Dow Jones private equity conference.
“We think that with the clarity of what we hope to get done, we’ll be able to re-access the public markets in six months to a year,” Miller said in an interview after a panel discussion, his first public comments since being named chairman of New York-based AIG in July.
I just looked at that pension chart....funny, why couldn't the argument just as easily be they were underallocated to bonds all this time?
ReplyDeletetoo simple?
Speaking of AIG and the repayments,
ReplyDeletewhat exactly has happened with all the TARP money that the banks have paid back?
Did it just go into Obama's slush fund?
good question DL, I know a few people had some ideas on what to do with it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/58027
it likely has become some sort of slush fund, as you said.
dl -
ReplyDeletedon't know, but mark calabria of cato institute had this to say to congress:
"A final concern with HR 3068 is both the precedent it sets for re-directing TARP funds and its potential to erode the checks-and-balances that come with the appropriations process. Once the line has been crossed to redirect TARP dividends to non-TARP uses, I fear it will only be a matter of time before TARP repayments are also redirected. While HR 3068 represents just over $6 billion, it could easily become the first-step in a process that results in $100s of billions being diverted. Such would only leave the taxpayer with an even greater burden. I strongly urge any additional housing subsidies, trust fund or otherwise, to be subjected to either the appropriations process or to pay-go.
"The repayment of TARP funds has raised a variety of legal questions, perhaps the most important of which is the Treasury Secretary’s ability to re-allocate those funds. Pronouncements from Treasury have been mixed and at times in contradiction. I would suggest Congress examine whether the Treasury Secretary has the ability to re-allocate TARP funds once they have been repaid. In order to reduce the potential for additional losses under TARP, Congress should consider explicitly restricting the ability of the Treasury to re-spend TARP funds that have been repaid."
But Pelosi PROMISED (back in October 2008) that all the money would be returned to the taxpayers.
ReplyDeleteNo one could have seen this coming.
(LOL)
i'm trying not to let nflx get to me.. let alone TARP, HAMP, and &%$!
ReplyDelete$tran made a new high today..
ReplyDeletelikewise $rut..
ReplyDeleteMan things getting interesting now, I bought gold at 870 now look where it is. Up over 1300 the investment guy I listen to was right, he called the stockmarket crash back in 2007 and has been spot on with things.
ReplyDeleteCheck out his video below. he is calling for higher prices. When the SHTF then what??. Many most the fat obese people in the US are so asleep. They aint got a chance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OSXpSGSz5M
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