Morning Audibles 9.1.10

Welcome to September (traditionally - the WORST performing month of the year, on average, for equities - though you wouldn't know it by the S&P futures which are on track to gap up 10 points on news that China’s purchasing managers’ index had a WHALLOPING rise to 51.7 from 51.2)...

Pardon Me while I Raff Out Roud

For those of you who don't understand Chinese, that basically means that there will be 517 vacant buildings in every city instead of 512... A 5 building increase!

So now the FOXCONN employees won't have to stand in line anymore to jump out of windows...

Anyway... Since CV gets paid just about as much as these contented little worker bees... I'll offer my ENTIRE PAYCHECK and give you all the 5 cent rundown:

- Yeah I suppose the indices (which always lead) are a little oversold "short term"
- Yeah we had a "generational" triple bottom at 1040... count 'em! 3 in 26 hours! GENERATIONAL I say!
- Yeah it's the first of the month (time for Jamie & Lloyd to offload their overpriced crap onto your friendly neighborhood 401k manager... You know... For THE FUN)...
- Yeah it's still summer (and remember - this is the SUMMER OF HOPE - so we have that going for us)... And even though "Creditcane Earl" is bearing down on the Hamptons, well, for masters of the universe, that is just an excuse to go windsurfing, right?

So the question is? How long will this last?

Frankly... I have no idea... Many wavers still have tight ranges (not giving much more than the 1070 - 1080 area)... Some others like RETESTS back up in the 1110 area... And then there are still gaps to fill, potentially, around 1120 and way up at 1150...

What I thought I'd do is take a broader look at things... The following is a MONTHLY chart (going clear back to 1987)... Stock Market people remember that year... And it was also the year that this movie came out...


And here's what the S&P has done since then...

I think pictures tell their own words but since I make the BIG BUCKS here, I'll offer up what I see for free... (admitting this is REARVIEW MIRROR analysis)...

- The straight line ruler from the post 1987 crash low thru the monthly closing candle low in 2002 takes us to a point that the market lost this summer, and is thus far failing to regain... It is very close to the 1130 level where the market failed on the July candle, and now the August candle as well

- The 233 month moving average & 377 month moving averages are on the chart... When looking at things from a long term perspective, you need to apply long term thinking... 233 months takes you back to about 1991... 377 takes you all the way back to 1978... At minumum, these should "smooth out" presidential cycles, credit bubbles, and CRAZY IVAN Fed czars...

- The RSI (of the "bubblicious" 2003-2007 period, and the "fear-a-licious" 10/08 - 7/09 period can be seen is periods OUTSIDE of a fairly flattish wedge which extends back 15 years. The most recent months show some consolidation within, but the August candle produce a a trend line break of the trajectory since the March '09 lows... It may be nothing, but in May the trend line was broken as well, and the move to do so happened to be the flash crash...

So again... For all I know, this chart is worth nothing more than looking back at 1990 candles and reminiscing about that night in Copenhagen with "Rannevig" from Iceland...

Or you could instead LOOK FORWARD to Wall St. II... Where I suppose "Greed" is still "Good" and "Money Never Sleeps" because it's all debt and electrons anyway... (Here, see for yourself)...


Good luck trading...

268 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 268   Newer›   Newest»
Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, what appears obvious to me as a hobbyist in the financial world is that now the ADP number was revised down, this time you lose 10k private jobs and government is finally facing up to having to release public employees.

..I don't don't care what China is doing...they don't have the massive public and private debt we do..we in the Salt Mine aren't hiring, and the only place I know that is expanding is the new liquor store in town...

...Interesting times..

spoonman said...

look at the dollar...yikes

qqqqtrader said...

BnT
How's that new $600 reporting tax (starting in 2012) going to work on the ones that buy more than $600 of booze from the same liquor store? Owebama's new tax is going to be a mess for everyone! It applies to gold sales also.

Revelation 13 said...

"How's that new $600 reporting tax (starting in 2012) going to work"

16And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

mcHAPPY said...

If anyone is wondering what the hell is going on, it is summed up here quite succinctly here:

There is a shit-storm comin'

mcHAPPY said...

Shit, here is the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAJjM4aRniE

1:18 of pure truth.

CV said...

@McHappy

ROR

Anonymous said...

the futures- what a show-

here's DH's take at TBP-

Today’s fraud of choice is an old favorite … pumped financial markets. Look at the futures. ADP just announced a horrible number and, like always, when bad news comes out to play, the markets almost always go up a lot. . .

. . .and you [BR] hint that you are anxious for buyers and real investors to return to capital markets. Why on Earth would anyone with less than half a brain fall for this scam, especially since it is played several times per week and idiot newsies never question the correlation of up markets with bad news. It’s a fake market that has more in common with barkers in front of tit*ie bars shouting at passer-bys . . .At least, this is what the visitors on TV business news and ‘professional investors’ who manage investor money for profit frequently sound like to me.


it appears- akin to Peter Finch- he's "mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore"

Anonymous said...

CV-

ROR??

raf the fuck out roud

CV said...

@ahab

BR happens to be one of those barkers in front of a "ti**ie" bar, so WHAT, him WORRY?

Nice Maserati!

CV said...

RTFOR

karen said...

Morning! Glad you for sense of humor, CV.. tempted to buy FAZ and DTO again.. Ben.. remember that 23.89 on the UUP.. it went once cent lower.. need to recheck the chart to see if damage done..

karen said...

yup on upp.. damage done.. let's see if it can regain 24..

karen said...

good news is gold didn't follow suit..

Anonymous said...

I am certain BR will have a post later about how a surging market in spite of bad news is bullish-

and the Ebay post regarding the bid for the Maserati-

bad form

CV said...

@karen

I do it all for you...

I've even decided to start peeing in the yard just so the toilet seat & lid stay permanently dowm :-)

CV said...

Except for the bounce in the major indices, nothing really STANDS OUT here...

Financials are actually trailing the move...

Gold/Silver... FLAT

Harry Wanger said...

The "indices" are leading...

CV said...

@ahab

BR wants what everyone else around him want...

MONEY... & things to buy to "show it all off"

and THAT's the truth...

Leftback said...

Stocks are UP, on THE ECONOMY.

Morning all. Shorted the long bond last night so LB is fat and happy.
Actually just happy, and in extremely good athletic shape, Karen...

karen said...

Sticks and stones, CV :P

Bot nothing sitting out.. if this sells, off it won't stop at 1040 this time.

CV said...

@karen

Good call on UUP (waiting)...

I'm tempted to go long some CALLS here (actually "add" to a few I already have)...

Something tells me that the market may hang on higher for a few more days though...

The most important NFP number in history is on tap for Friday... Then, 3 day weekend (Europe OPEN on Monday - you know my theory on that)...

Anyway, my gut tells me that there's still "time" for an entry... However, the price may not be much different...

Leftback said...

LB sees it this way:

A big September rally to round out Q3 and ensure big bonii for the banksters, which are going to be EARLY for TAX REASONS.

Johnny gets his ass burned in Treasuries and starts to pile into stocks again BECAUSE OF INFLATION.

Then, whoops, they pull the rug out from under JOHNNY. Cue the HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER™, banksters are short and make more money.

The long winter of discontent ends with QE2 and Son of Stimulus. Banksters get long and make more money.

Rinse and repeat.

karen said...

ahab, i told you he was a d*ck a few days ago.. did you see that comment? I mentioned the maserati bid, as well.

Leftback said...

The Wanger quote is an all-time classic and will live in infamy.

Anonymous said...

MONEY... & things to buy to "show it all off"

hey man- that's why I have my sweet 4runner-

chick magnet- and quite the head turner

ror

CV said...

@LB

Timely move on TBT...

My take is this (and I realize it's a very CONCENTRIC view)...

I had 30.39 as a target (it was a 1.618 ABC extension from '09 highs down)...

So I bought there, and quickly sold the next day at 31.00...

It then proceeded to take out 30.39 and print into the 29's... Which I felt was logical, as I never really expected for a PRECISE number like 30.39 to ever stick on a leveraged ETF vampire anyway...

Anyway, now this big bounce is still way below where I'd sold it last week (by quite a bit)...

So I'm just wondering how much energy is actually there or is this all just some kind of wishy washy consolidation...

I'm not really ASKING your opinion on that... JTOL...

Anonymous said...

sorry Karen-

didn't see the post- did a few glances here and there on a few financial blogs- been tied up w/ a few things-

did catch the Maserati post at TBP though- didn't bother posting anything

CV said...

When I want your opinion I'll give it you you :-)

Leftback said...

You don't really need a flash car if you have a sizable portfolio.

Leftback said...

C,

If we get what we bond traders refer to technically as a BIG HONKIN MOVE up in yields, then I will just take my profits.

Less in need of a portfolio hedge these days, as I now own no Treasuries, just trading opportunistically around the POMOs, BITCHEZ.

bob said...

LB,

The high close on the zb concerned me yesterday. It was the highest close yet, there were higher intraday moves.

Japan looks out for their own, seemingly telegraphing far enough ahead of time to let ms. wantabe pile into treasuries. Next time they threaten to intervene, everyone will be on their side. Saw some graphs over the weekend of the rush from japan out, ahead of the "intervention".

Trying to focus on the other side of the world lately, I need more personal experience with following it.

McFearless said...

CV,

Nice post man.

Karen,

yes, been watching the dollar since late last night, we'll see, may get stopped out there on my most recent buy, which is fine, have made some good money on the dollar recently since getting bullish again, sometimes you give a little back.

given my worldview I'm delighting in the sentiment being expressed everywhere this morning regarding the market,...meanwhile MBS purchase applications show more trouble ahead, ADP, it was a disaster AS EXPECTED, and on and on, but and bulls from a TA perspective have almost everything in the TA world to be excited about because lots point to a bounce.

So I predict massive pain for bulls by Halloweenie.

Tricks, no treats.

Anonymous said...

First Hurricane Earl Evacuations Begin

outer banks no less- good thing my dentist clued me in

CV said...

"A big September rally to round out Q3 and ensure big bonii for the banksters, which are going to be EARLY for TAX REASONS"

---

CV's take is that the quarter started (in July) with Wangers "indices" hovering on 1010...

Probably some profits are already locked in (because 1040 seemed to hold, for now)...

So while they may be able to run this thing a little higher... Quietly, many may be tiptoeing towards the door as well...

It would be a SHAME to lose all your hard earned bonuses (while you were hard at work in the Hamptons), during the Rosh Hashanah - Yom Kippur window... Or stagger to the finish line with ZILCHO at the end of the month...

Profits ain't PROFITS until they are "booked"...

karen said...

is this some short covering or what?! LOL.. UFB.. hope it isn't a 4% up day.. grabbed some faz and dto.. we will see.

Anonymous said...

I guess you can't lose if you always buy the 1040

CV said...

Well I take back a little of what I'd mentioned earlier...

The banks have now joined the party...

McFearless said...

"I guess you can't lose if you always buy the 1040"

lol, yeah, we'll see how that works out, seems a lot of people actually believe this.

McFearless said...

everything will join the party, we had a 90% down day Monday, typically leads to 2-7 days of rally, if it's a big up day it'll likely be another 90% up day, ya know....stock pickers market!

CV said...

I'm actually very content that it's happening this way...

This is enough to bring the RSI & MACD waves into a better balance over a 20 day period or so...

What ought to happen after that would be a few "divergences" (as the market ground a little higher)...

Then, when the FEAR side of it dropped off the radar, we could begin to prepare for THE CRASH...

karen said...

spx 20 ema is just under 1074.. hope it turns here..

McFearless said...

so some gaps are filled, back above the big trendline....we'll see how much more energy bulls have.

some wavers had us in a iv, probably good to keep in mind with this move this morning.

Cold Steel said...

I'm back.....

McFearless said...

CV,

yes there was some bullish cross on MACD, dont' forget either something you brought up the other day which i hadn't noticed was that the 200 day is turning down again....we all know how widely followed that is

Brian the Broker said...

@mcf

Brian:"Look at my record! I picked 8 out of 10 winners"

CV: yeah - but dude - 90% of all stocks were up...

Brian: I still claim "Victoly"

http://pix.motivatedphotos.com/2008/7/6/633509838705161772-Engrish---Victoly.jpg

karen said...

so much excitement that i forgot to twitter !!

some pre-market charts from mrtopstep http://chart.ly/rgvto6y

McFearless said...

Karen,

keep us up to date on the top step tweets today please, imagine those guys are all over this.

CV said...

@Cold Steel

Hiya dude!

Last time I saw you we were at 1100...

Time before that... 1130... before that 1183... before that 1220...

What's up? U been busy lately?

karen said...

look at FXA.. i'll call that a right shoulder..

karen said...

CV @ 10:14, I <3 U !!

karen said...

ignore my 10:15.. was looking at spx not fxa.. rolling my eyes.

CV said...

@McF

The 200MA is up around 1116 right now, and the 233MA is around 1110...

Both have been highly visited numbers...

I'm content to just sit around here for awhile and keep some powder dry...

I'd laugh my ass off to see some major bullishness start to emerge...

karen said...

why is jnk down? 10% yield not good enuf?

McFearless said...

C,

Same plan here, as I said monday, I'd be an observer this week, lots of data, nobody really trading, better week to watch, for me anyway.

Cold Steel said...

C,

I am a caricature.
I am not a real bulltard, I am a figment...

But it is traditional that I show up on massive up days.
You know, for THE FUN....

Leftback said...

JNK is down on THE ECONOMY.

Actually it is down on a run from all fixed income.
Rout, more like......

karen said...

dollar picking up as it should on our bullish economy, lol.. crude inventories next!

McFearless said...

some decent fractals going on today....check late July early August charts, compare to now.

thoughts?

McFearless said...

Karen,

there is never any comfort in being a dollar long, no matter how good your charts are, because we all know the dollar blows, but I'm feeling a little twinge of comfort with the way it held thus far.

bob said...

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/6276/eurj.gif

EUR weekly, showing fibs, stuck between long term 23's.

CV said...

With all this bullishness...

All we need now is a little QE2 to make things even BETTER!

Why waterski behind only 1 yacht when you can waterski behind 20?

J6P (in Ohio) is "celebrating" this 200 point DOW rise, I'm sure...

Jennifer said...

McF -- I see that your favorite short CAT is back up against that downtrend line...

CV said...

Meanwhile, the "teleprompter in chief" is probably scouring the newspapers for headlines which connect his "combat mission accomplished" speech to the rise in the DOW today...

Bubba Clinton said...

It's THE ECONOMY stupid...

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

yep, I'm not sure if it's got one more leg up or not but if it touches 70 I'll short it again.

karen said...

from 7 min ago: mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures r up 27 handles & up 30 frm globex low even if you LUV the mrkt there needs to be caution at this poin = back and fill $$

McFearless said...

@mcHappy,

the count you presented maybe yesterday or the day before is looking pretty good man, that 1080 area you cited makes for some nice fibo relationships....nice job man.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0OXi6Xii6B4&pos=2

ADP Estimates Companies in U.S. Unexpectedly Cut Jobs (Update3)

“The labor market is really in peril as businesses are just being very cautious,” said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, the only economist surveyed to accurately forecast the loss in private jobs. Today’s figures “will drag down expectations for the Friday payrolls report. The stability surrounding the recovery is declining.”

“This number is disappointing and maybe even a little disconcerting,” Joel Prakken, chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, which produces the figures with ADP, said on a conference call with reporters. “The weakness was pretty much across the board. Employment is going to be lethargic through the second half of the year.”

...I am voting for disconcerting as the new Unexpectedly....

AmenRa said...

The bears after ISM: http://www.hollyvoguevintage.com/furjkt5.jpg
Ouch

McFearless said...

"The stability surrounding the recovery is declining.”

how can anyone say this with a straight face?

also, I'm going to motion that we strike the work "unexpectedly" from our vocabulary for the next couple of years. I imagine some of you are about as tired of hearing that as I am.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-data-Americans-still-apf-33112638.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Retail data: Americans still cautious in August

NEW YORK (AP) -- Not even skinny jeans for $20 are pulling Americans into stores.

Nervous about jobs and an unraveling economy, shoppers spent -- at best -- only slightly more this August than last, according to data released Wednesday by MasterCard's SpendingPulse.

The figures confirm a flurry of anecdotal evidence that retailers will be disappointed by this year's back-to-school season -- a time they see as second only to the winter holidays.

"We are still not seeing a rebound," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for SpendingPulse, which includes transactions in all forms including cash..


.....Demand, demand, demand...the article also talks about going back to school with last year's clothes, computers, and so on.....

Mannwich said...

People don't need jobs. They have the market.

CV said...

@McF

"unexpectedly"...

hmmm... I'm not sure...

Let's look at some use of that word...

Americans voted for HOPE & CHANGE in 2008, but "unexpectedly"...

karen said...

zerohedge

New post: GM Reports 21.9% Adjusted Decline In August Car Sales, Estimate At -19%, Just In Time For IPO http://tinyurl.com/348gku5

CV said...

You know what funny? Unexpectedly...

There WAS NOT much of a chart gap at the open this morning...

UNEXPECTEDLY (depending on who you ask that's not named CV), you then get a chart gap RIGHT AT 1065 which shows up on 5, 10, 15, and 30 minute charts...

Things that make you go hmmm... Only if they were "unexpected"...

McFearless said...

I don't think the net realizes what it is doing when they vote, there is no thought process, it's more instinct...herding.

karen said...

EXCELLENT David Rosenberg this morning:

https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_090110.pdf

CV said...

Wavers?

Doesn't being here at 1078 "negate" the move down from 1129 from being a 5 wave down? Is that correct?

karen said...

Mish getting into banks loan losses:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/loan-loss-loan-loss-provision-bank/9/1/2010/id/29900

CV said...

"I don't think the net realizes what it is doing when they vote, there is no thought process"...

In America, at least there is a CHOICE...

1. Death by lethal injection
2. Death by a million paper cuts

Americans chose to do a #2 last time out...

CV said...

Wait...

Make that a QUADRILLION paper cuts...

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ZB_F #futures bouncing off lows adds attention/pressure 2 $ES_F chatter= some locals still carrying shorts in spoos 8/23 hi 1080 area res

CV said...

uup clawing back...

CV said...

@karen (11:10)

I just noticed that there are small gaps (from 10 days ago) on the 30 min. SPX at the 1085 and 1093 levels...

So someone may to run the stops on those "locals" before the move is over...

McFearless said...

C,

you've got iv and i overlap now there, so it is a problem.

Cold Steel said...

Locals may find their 1080 stops will be violated...

McFearless said...

I love the rah rah everywhere today, this probably has higher to go but it's got bear market rally written all over it.

I bet you'll count 100's of articles written before weeks end about an "election rally"

bank on it

karen said...

CV.. i'm watching 1085-86.. the overhead 50ema

and 1080 is the 34 ema..

what a hokey day, really.. i'd be dying if i hadn't sold what i sold yesterday..

Leftback said...

"this probably has higher to go but it's got bear market rally written all over it. "

Indeed. Watch this become a classic bear market 3-4% day.

McFearless said...

yeah, some big pump at the end, we haven't really had a good one of those in a while. what a day.

Leftback said...

"..i'd be dying if i hadn't sold what i sold yesterday.."

You're not just beautiful. You're brilliant, too...

karen said...

alaidi

BoA MerrillLynch: Fed likely to expand balance sheet by buying $500-$750bln in Treasuries over 6 mths. FullFledged QE2 $USDX negative $$

McFearless said...

the question is though, if you want to short, near term, I think you are better off using October puts instead of Sept....

just thinking out loud

McFearless said...

If it were so easy to call for a negative dollar based on QE2 then perhaps alaidi has a really legit explanation for the Yen right now....I doubt it though.

karen said...

LB, hardly.. just remembered how dumb i felt for not trading my dto.. and faz is NEVER a hold.. thot i'd learned that with drv and vxx but apparently not..

karen said...

alaidi might be a closet goldbug : )

Leftback said...

We are all closet goldbugs....

CV said...

@McF

"I bet you'll count 100's of articles written before weeks end about an "election rally""...

I was already reading that sort of crapola being tossed out on other blogs this past week...

Something to the effect of...

"They won't let markets tank any further through the elections"...

Oh yeah... I'm going to stake the billions I have under management on that notion...

ROR

CV said...

If it were so easy to call for a negative dollar based on QE2...

ROTFROR

McFearless said...

CV,

we knew that was coming though right, especially this particular election. If we get a big rally to November you'll never hear the end of it just like how QE caused the 2009 rally (all over the world and in virtually ever single asset class)

McFearless said...

speaking of gold, I'll just put out there, I'm an idiot for not being long gold....giant miss at this point, should have been buying heavy sub 1,000.

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures hlcamp [10:40:21 AM]: Whenever the #trin is below .50 you never ever short the spoos. last 0.29 $$

Jennifer said...

I'm going out on a limb here but I think we are due for a rally that last for more than one day. I could see us getting a big squeeze into the close, which will prompt more buying/covering tomorrow. When the November decline finally ended, DRN went up 100% in about a month. I'm not bullish in the slightest, but it seems to me that we should have gone down hard a couple of days ago and since we didn't I have to lean toward big rally. To me the failure to break 1040/1010 argues in favor of a brief reprieve for the markets.

Jennifer said...

McF re: gold -- I was a huge fan of the Financial Ninja before he stopped posting. I still recall a post which argued in favor of waiting to buy gold until it was over $1000/oz and you could "hear the sounds of countries exploding." This was pre Iceland. Alas... Also, while on vaca the last week in July I was looking at the chart of AEM. Said to my father "If you were interested in buying some (more) now would be a good price." He says "are you buying?" No. He buys at $54, sells yesterday at $65. Me...nothing.

Jennifer said...

I subscribe to Fred Hickey's High Tech Strategest. [Hello, my name is Jennifer, and I am addicted to stock market forcasting newsletters.] He has been pushing the gold thing for a really long time. It just never felt right to me...I guess that means there still are lots more people to buy gold.

AmenRa said...

So far there is a daily 3LB reversal up (above 1071.69) and we're above the weekly 3LB mid (1072.11).

ROR

McFearless said...

RR's rule on the 90% down days like Monday is we get a rally of at least 2-7 days, that's pretty much been the case with most of the 90% downers since the April high, since I'm highly skeptical we are in some third wave then I don't see any reason to expect this time to be different.

with S&P at the 50 day and the RSI on the 50 marker we'll see how far it can go.

Jennifer said...

My SPY charts have these weird ticks between 11:15 and 11:30. Anybody else have this? It shows that we traded down all the way to the opening price.

McFearless said...

My main hang up with a lot of the gold bugs is they are all worried about inflation, they build the whole gold strategy on that concern, yet none of them can explain how gold tanked for 20 years while M3 tripled....that's about as much inflation as one could ask for.

just keeping it really simple, it would seem I misread gold sentiment and that I underestimated just how few people understand that gold is real money.

Anonymous said...

Jennifer

That's a TDAM/TOS "feature".

McFearless said...

if we break above 1,100 all the super bear wavers gotta toss counts and call the move a 3...until then....

karen said...

gotta luv these pre labor day $compq rallies..

mrtopstep

waitin on $ES_F "pullin back"shud rmembr trdrs shrt into mnth & QTR end & ystrdys big buy imbal=whats fueling this higher w/out lkin back $$

Anonymous said...

"We got good economic news on the manufacturing side and on the employment side,” said Michael Binger, a Minneapolis-based fund manager at Thrivent Asset Management, which oversees about $70 billion. "There’s a sigh of relief among the long-only funds and the short-sellers are saying that maybe the sell-off is over.

good employment news?

raff out roud

Anonymous said...

BR has it all down-

"Pop! Back Into the Trading Range

I have recently been complaining about the excessive bearish sentiment.

Whether it was Tony Robbin’s economic warnings, the excessive bearishness of Wall Street Analysts, or the the recession porn of the Hindenberg Omen, there has simply been too much negativity"


you see- BR has this contrarian thing down cold.

CV said...

"the sell-off is over"...

Yeah... That TOUCHDOWN barrage that the Baltimore Raven are laying on your team is OVER too...

Until the networks return from commercial break, and your team fumbles the ensuing kickoff return...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

DETROIT (AP) -- Auto sales, once a bright spot in the economic recovery, stalled last month as the nation's largest car companies reported falling sales.

General Motors Co.'s August sales fell 7 from July, and an even sharper 25 percent from August of 2009, when sales were boosted by the government's Cash for Clunkers rebates. Ford saw sales slip 5 percent from July. Subaru, whose strong lineup of smaller cars benefited from clunkers last year, also suffered.

Buyers who are nervous about the economy's health stayed away from showrooms, a worrisome sign since August is typically a strong month. Analysts say total industry sales could fall below 1 million new vehicles, making it the worst August in 27 years.

....This is almost as long as LB has been trying to get a date...

karen said...

Ben.. in answer to your 11:59.. From Ferdinand Lips's "Gold Wars" published in 2001: "For the last forty years, there has been no free gold market. During the 1960s, the gold market was controlled by the central banks' Gold Pool at the behest of the US Treasury, which wanted the price of gold suppressed. At tat time the price of gold served as a perfect monetary barometer signaling the oncoming dollar crisis.

During the 1970s, the US Treasury and the IMF auctions capped the gold price. As we know, all attempts failed."

skipping on a bit: "As everybody knows, a bar of gold, like a banknote, yields nothing. At the beginning of the 1980s, some creative Wall Street dealers found ways to change this. They invented the gold loans/forward sales business... this activity turned into a vicious circle contributing to lower and lower gold prices. So, if somebody wanted to manipulate the gold market, he only had to convince the central banks to lend more and the mines to hedge more.

IMO.. this is a must read book if you really want to understand gold.

karen said...

forgot all about this, Fuld's testimony is beginning..

Leftback said...

Good one, Bruce. You are back on form...

karen said...

anyone else have that bad spy tick on the 30 min chart that fills this morning's gap up?!

Leftback said...

Mr Fold, is it true that your wife Kathleen is in fact a vacuous money-grubbing bitch who goaded you relentlessly over the small size of your equipment...?

Auric Goldfinger said...

"During the 1960s, the gold market was controlled by the central banks'"...

No it vazn't... It vaz contrholled by me...

CV said...

@karen

Shhhh! Nic doesn't want to hear anything about "bad ticks"...

Anonymous said...

this is pretty easy stuff- buy the 1040 sell the 1110-

I think I saw a commercial on it already

karen said...

looks like a little distribution in cstr today.. check out the volume and price range today.. wonder if that was einhorn selling..

Anonymous said...

a follow up to my 12:23-

and I didn't see Tony Robbins as a contrarian indicator by any means-

dude was basically telling his audience to be careful-

pretty reasonable advice- WTF is he supposed to say- BUY!!!!

BR kills me

David Einhorn said...

"I check to the raiser"

CV said...

@ahab

I haven't been over to TWSB's place in a bit, but last I remember from him was that he was mostly in cash (something like 80%) and expecting a move to 950...

And he's pointing fingers at Tony Robbins now?

Leftback said...

Einhorn was selling so he could buy you some jewelry, K...

CV said...

I gotta admit...

I'm expecting a move to "something like" 950 as well (note the splashy new avatar...

But on a day like today... I'm not pointing any fingers...

I'm just R'ing OR (and waiting for a decent entry point)...

Maybe I should wait for the master of the universe BR to give me a wink and a nod as to when he's going to deploy some of that cash...

Anonymous said...

CV-

that was the last call I remember- but he did bring up the Tony Robbins video a few weeks back-

basically saying- "who is this douche bag giving financial advice"-

but I didn't see the video that way at all

CV said...

@LB (12:44)

ROR...

That reminds me of the scene from "Trading Places" where Reggie Hammond (Eddie Murphy) is sitting in the fancy restaurant and the big whale asks him his opinion about some investment...

The whole restaurant turns to listen (like the EF Hutton commercial)...

Reggie says to the guy "We'll I'd SELL because judging by all those rocks you have on your girlfriend... looks like you're going to need that cash to keep her happy"...

CV said...

@ahab

I basically saw the TR video the same way as you did...

I'm not a TR fan in any way shape or form (and basically watched it only in the hopes of finding some fodder to make a joke out of)...

But instead... I found it as a simple attempt to advise "caution"... Which is a concept I happen to agree with in this moment...

And since many people turn to the likes of a TR for advice, I didn't think it was a bad thing in aggregate...

Better than listening to "(H)OPRAH" anyway...

karen said...

HOD on spx 1080.00 ??!! no way.. guess we will be higher into the close..

CV said...

CV is sitting here contemplating whether or not to attempt to "day trade" this little "fiasc-ino"...

1065 is CLEARLY a bogey to the downside, so there's meat on both sides of the bone for a few days anyway...

Leftback said...

Fancying a good ramping this afternoon, K?
LB could certainly go along with that.

McFearless said...

Um, anyone reading Barry for the last few years should be able to see by now his analysis on sentiment lacks any sort of rigor whatsoever, go back and read the sentiment post at the peak in April how bullish sentiment was waning, there are many examples. He's awesome at the big macro stuff, not so much on technical detail.

Anonymous said...

CV-

that's the way I saw it- and that is the first time I ever heard him speak on anything-

outside of "Shallow Hal"

Anonymous said...

headline-

All Eyes on Apple Ahead of Mystery Media Event

ohhhhhh- I am so excited-

remember what research from Mindset Media said:

"Mac users are snobs.The company surveyed 7500 Mac and PC owners . . .Apparently, Mac fanboys and fangirls are perfectionists, more likely to use teeth whitening products, notebooks over desktop computers, drive station wagons and/or hybrid cars, pay for downloaded music, visit Starbucks frequently. The study also says that Mac users are environmentally conscious and have purchased five pairs of sneakers in the last year."

McFearless said...

If there is a late day pump that TRIN is going to need to come down in between now and 3 pm.

CV said...

John Holmes was awesome at the big macro stuff too...

McFearless said...

Marc Faber has suggested a short of AAPL.

any takers?

I'd rather be short of CAT.

Anonymous said...

that five pairs of sneakers makes me laugh every time I read it-

I wonder who though of that question as a "must know" from Mac users-

how about asking if they have an espresso maker

karen said...

Ahab and CV.. likewise i found nothing to criticize in the TR video.. other than he might have been talking PTJ's book, but aren't all of us with half a head on our shoulders.. it is our story after all..

It may also be a great future PR video if he turns out to be right..

Anonymous said...

or how often they take their dog "berber" to the doggie park

CV said...

"desktop computers, drive station wagons and/or hybrid cars, pay for downloaded music, visit Starbucks frequently. The study also says that Mac users are environmentally conscious and have purchased five pairs of sneakers in the last year."

Are you sure that didn't say that they "sneakily downloaded hybrid music onto their hard drives in order to consciously save bucks"?

McFearless said...

it would seem to me stating the Robbins video was somehow a contrary indicator was grasping at straws imo, he didn't actually provide any advice other than to simply consider playing it safe, sort of hard to be labeled a contrarian when you didn't really offer anything specific.

we've seen Barry recently state the herd is correct most of the time, though I don't see this hashed out in any of his posts about sentiment recently that possibly the herd is finally turning negative, albeit after half the secular bear market is over, they've been wrong and bullish for the entire ride thus far....this is the idea of a long term bear is that eventually everyone does become negative and it stays that way until the mood changes.

During P1 in the first large wave down we had aaii bears where they are recently for six straight weeks....

I suppose a normal response would be that "it's not 2008" which is correct, we are so much worse off now than we were then!

karen said...

Toyota's August U.S. sales slump more than 30%

Anonymous said...

CV-

I think the flip side to that survey is that PC users "pirate" music and don't pay for it-

apparently they are modest in their sneaker desires as well- whatever that means

Leftback said...

K.,

Toyoda end Cash for Crunkers Ploglam.

CV said...

Looking at the UUP...

despite todays drop... it's still holding above the 50% line of its mid 20,2 BB's...

McFearless said...

I use Mac, but I didn't buy 5 pairs of sneakers in the last year, why would you need that many pairs?

Samurai Saunders said...

No buy Toyoda...

Buy YUM...

It's finger ricking good...

Anonymous said...

this is the idea of a long term bear is that eventually everyone does become negative and it stays that way until the mood changes.

it would seem that there comes a time when there is no contrarian play-

I wonder- Hitler as Time Magazine's "Man of the Year" in 1938- looking at it with a contrarian eye-

meant no war was on the horizon

Nic said...

Haha CV you are funny about the bad tick.
It is just a swing trade, I am not married to it. I don't believe the stock market or risk appetite represents the economy or anything silly

CV said...

@ahab

You know... Hitler's "issue" with Zionists was largely due to the fact that they were the usury money grabbers during the Weimar period...

Sound familiar?

CV said...

@ahab

Scary to think...

karen said...

ben.. just found a big section on the gold silver ratio in "Gold Wars."

ratio has been as low as 10 and as high as 100 (during the depression when silver was selling for .25/ounce). "From this all time high, the ratio started its long descent pari passu with the deliberate debasement of world currencies to reach a low of 16 in 1980. From there it began climbing again. At the time of this writhing the Au/Ag ration is at 61. "

"Some believe the [silver/gold] ratio will ultimately again fall to 16:1, but it should not be forgotten that silver is no longer a monetary metal. However, in future inflationary periods, it may again resume its monetary role as the gold of the 'little man', and there may be renewed silver speculation and crises as long as money creation remains under the purview of s small specially privileged cabal."

Bruce in Tennessee said...

McFearless said...
I use Mac, but I didn't buy 5 pairs of sneakers in the last year, why would you need that many pairs?


...To walk your pet octopus?

McFearless said...

Karen,

Key line:

"However, in future inflationary periods"

like I was saying earlier. What is this author's def. of inflation? If it is the proper one ( an increase in money supply plus credit) his thesis is immediately destroyed.

on the point though of silver being the gold of the little man, this is what I had in mind when I made the comment the other day that "silver is just as much real money as gold is", so I agree with that idea.

CV said...

@ahab

I realize that is a broad stroke, but I'm not in the mood to do a "geopol" treatise on the subject...

Instead, I'd rather so my silly "Asian accents" schtick... :-)

Anonymous said...

samurai saunders-

you definitely know what you're talking about- you trip over KFC's in Asia-

reminds me of a story- I was talking to this young college girl who worked in our office a few years back and mentioned that someone was oriental-

shock and horror- as Asian is the politically correct term-

and why is Oriental bad- means "from the east"

karen said...

ahab @ 1:04! same with me! that's another reason i was so curious about the video.. also that he lives or lived in this "castle" in del mar, ca.

CV said...

"What is this author's def. of inflation?"

INFLATION -

Here's one definition...

http://pix.motivatedphotos.com/2008/7/18/633519401846781541-Japanese-Body-Pillows---Why-not-go-the-last-mile-and-buy-a-blow-up-doll.jpg

Hot Japanese Girls said...

WE ruv the sirry Asian accent schtick !!

CV said...

@ahab

and why is Oriental bad- means "from the east"

Well let's see consider that GEOGRAPHICALLY...

If you're IN Beijing... FROM THE EAST could mean you're from Japan...

OR

If you're IN Tokyo... FROM THE EAST could mean you're CALIFORNIAN...

karen said...

Another quip, "In a world where the stock market becomes the new monetary tool to manage the economy, we are not far from the era of John Law."

Pee Wee Herman said...

"I know you are but what am I"?

karen said...

i'm getting nervous now.. looking at $spx 10 min chart.. you know what happens when it flat lines like that..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Judge-rules-against-rb-2726568043.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Judge rules against government on drilling halt

...This goes back to the ready, fire, aim school of governing, but at least some of the deep water drilling jobs may be kept.

McFearless said...

John Law,....what about John Titor?

what about John Locke...or is the black smoke monster?

McFearless said...

looks like some sort of fourth wave karen, we might blast higher...keeping an eye on TRIN.

Anonymous said...

man- I don't know about anyone else but I can't get enough of the Asian/Oriental banter-

raff out roud-


CV- noted- but the flip side is "Occidental"- from the west-

so looking at it from a cultural perspective- if someone says occidental-

I don't have a vision of Wyoming or California because it is west of Virginia

CV said...

FWIW...

CV says this isn't going to be some wimpy 2% handle move today... It's "gotta" close in the "3"'s...

Here's a good number... 1083-ish...

There4 - a .009 fibo jump/followthru tomorrow would push it up into covering that gap area which resides in the 1092-94 area...

Any takers?... I knew there would be...

I-Man should be here PROFITING off this insanity instead of kickin it on a beach in Hawaii!...

On second thought... CV is INSANE for thinking I-Man should be ANYWHERE BUT a beach in Hawaii...

CV said...

They pay me to be a DEEP THINKER...

karen said...

glad i haven't bot a second piece of faz.. yet..
but i will be cursing if 1080 breaks.. or maybe i'll go wash my car..

oh speaking of cars.. my ex is moving from hawaii to austin, so he just sold his brand new nissan truck and told me he took a bath on the sale.. i said, why didn't you ship it? wasn't fancy enuf for your new girlfriend was it.. he replied that it wasn't fancy enuf for him! then i said, "whatever! right.. that's why you won't be buying the Prius you always wanted.. " rolling my eyes..

i'm livid at everything now! especially the indices, laughing.

CV said...

@karen

My (1:48) was a response to your (1:45)...

Without knowledge that you were even composing that post...

CV is "psychic" I tell you... PSYCHIC!

I have answers to questions that none of you have even formulated in your minds yet...

Leftback said...

If you are in LA, ORIENTAL would mean San Bernadino, for example.
OCCIDENTAL would mean Santa Monica.

LB bets the I- is I-peeking at his Blackberry..

Anonymous said...

karen-

he's definitely buying a convertible

CV said...

@ahab

Coming DUE EAST of you at the moment is Hurricane Earl...

So you have that going for you!

CV said...

@karen

"i'm livid at everything now! especially the indices, laughing..."

---

Especially when they're LEADING... right?

but glad you're laughing... me too :-)

Leftback said...

K.,

Your ex- will be buying whatever Porsche is more fancy than yours....

Anonymous said...

CV-

stroke of luck I cracked my tooth and had to visit the dentist-

I would have driven to Hatteras Island Monday night (which is being evacuated right now)- unknowing-

what a nightmare that would have been

LB-

do you follow American football?

CV said...

@karen

IN TEXAS... he's gonna need one of these...

http://www.jalopnik.com/cars/images/pickup_limo_texas.jpg

Leftback said...

LB doesn't really follow that gridiron stuff. Hard enough keeping up with the EPL and the upcoming cricket tour Down Under.

LB was once a Redskins and Orioles fan, but that was the 80s.

Anonymous said...

tough being a Redskins fan the last decade or so-

anyway- gotta roll-

all have a good day

Leftback said...

K.,

It's boring this afternoon, I think we need the French panties.
Your ex- must be certifiably insane, btw....

karen said...

ahab.. no way. he hates convertibles, we both do and have owned three in the past. (two vw things and a 911 with a hard top.. i think we took it off once.) that said, if he doesn't buy a Prius.. i will be shaking my head.

CV said...

Priuses are ridiculous...

I'd rather own a tricked out golf cart...

McFearless said...

Other thoughts about gold/metals/inflation:

1. I still remember that gold and silver bottomed in october/November 2008 at the very peak of the crisis so far, bottomed, not topped....that's the opposite of what most gold bulls reason "should have happened" or "will happen" in the future. EWI did a great long term study showing gold tends to perform well when the economy does, it's not free though or I'd link it. This seems counterintuitive, but the study is compelling.

2. Gold hit 98% bulls on DSI back in early June late May, as I've said recently, I never see the big 90% readings in sentiment and then a turn right away. commodities also tend to have blow-off tops, and we've seen all throughout this secular bear that things are topping in stages, not all at once. In 2001 DSI on gold was 95% bears.

3. Even if I play along with most of the gold bugs and agree the fed will "print money" that won't cause any inflation either. If they monetize all of the outstanding dollar denominated debt there is no inflation because money + credit supply would remain the same, and price levels on investments are based on total monetary assets, not just base money.

4. As discussed a lot of times, there are more flaws than can be listed here regarding the Fed's ability to actually do this anyway. We've barely monetized anything and the Fed is fighting internally, they wouldn't buy crap assets from Fannie and Freddie until Treasury backed them, and the fighting within the Fed is getting worse it would seem, not better. I'm doubtful they'll all agree to destroy the Fed by monetizing the other 57 trillion still outstanding.

5. If QE were the simple answer to getting financial asset prices to rise then Japan would logically be full of inflation right now....they are not.

karen said...

LB.. if you revisit last night's thread you'll find some chinese ones.. LOL.

McFearless said...

I heard austin is a really cool city.

karen said...

On Wednesday 1st September 2010, @mrtopstep said:
when the fund mngrs have to "catch up" they throw your money to anything to see if it will stick... for now that is equities as investors have regained an appetite for risk...??? the s&p up 30 handles and the biggest retracement was 4 handles is evidence of such lets also, throw yesterdays range in and that is 40ish handles and still tickin up EUBIQUITOUS[10:10:09 AM]: #1083# SPX FUT TOPS THIS MOVE / #1077 decent to start

karen said...

Ben, yes! I think/hope Austin will be nice.. he loves music, too.. It's one of the TX cities he always liked.. rolling hills and oak trees.. Never been myself.

karen said...

except not "cool" in respect to weather.. ; )

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures 1:09 pm $GS bot 500 to retest hi 1079 area $$
6 minutes ago via web

CV said...

@karen (2:13)

"#1083# SPX FUT TOPS THIS MOVE / #1077 decent to start"

---

refer to CV... (1:48)

karen said...

don't read as it will just make you crabby:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/ten-bailed-out-banks-spent-163m.html

karen said...

CV.. Bruce has two Prius vehicles.. so don't hurt his feelings..

LB @ 1:55, interesting thot !!

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