You know... THE FUN... Here's what it looks like... Remember that 1051.87 was yesterdays close on the S&P... I can't tell you how many times the "low", or point of recognition has occurred in the first 5 minutes this summer by the thug algos... Most of the time it happens right on FIBO extensions... So when I see 1042.75 on the heat map, and realize that the .009 FIBO from yesterdays close is 1042.40... Then those are things that make you go HMMMMMM...
1040-1040 have also been important technical levels for all of 2010... I know I don't have to tell any of you hardcore traders that, but the more casual readers should know... So the market is REALLY deciding something important here... Whether to "give it up" now, or DELAY "giving it up" until possibly after Labor Day... The dollar seems rather quiet (all things considered), but gold seems to be getting more expensive again (in Euros)...
Hold onto your hats... While it may or may not turn into a wild day (day after 3rd Hindenburg Omen confirmation)... It sure looks like it's going to begin that way... The NIKKEI was trying hard "not to lose" the psychological 9,000 level... Result? Epic Fail...
In Tokyo they were singing... NIKKEI Don't Lose That Number
So... Huckleberry's... Pick up the phone, pick some stocks, and have yourself some FUN...
@Nic
ReplyDeletefrom other thread...
"Another rumor of macro fund blow up this morning. Full liquidation mode and many crosscurrents in commodityland"
---
That's the first thing I thought of when I saw the GOLD/EURO cross...
@ahab
ReplyDeleteGross said he told Geithner and other Treasury officials that they would never get housing starts of 1 or even 2 million a year under the wing of the private market.
and we need that many housing starts why?
---
Why that's easy to respond to... All Americans need cars & houses so that Obama has gas & a mortgage he can pay for them...
Why that's easy to respond to... All Americans need cars & houses so that Obama has gas & a mortgage he can pay for them...
ReplyDeleteof course! what's wrong w/ me
Looks like everyone had a fun night. Something I read here a while back made me think that some of you read Gary Savage's updates. (Author of smart money tracker and has a subscription service.) Here's where I have to make my confession: Hello, my name is Jennifer, and I'm addicted to stock market forcasting subscription services. So...Gary is obviously very bullish on gold, but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar. I like to read his stuff mostly as a foil to my uberbearishness. References to 12 step programs will be ignored -- I have not come anywhere close to hitting bottom yet.
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteThat's THE FUN of being President...
Ahab:
ReplyDeleteI agree 100% with your question. All the folks here know the housing ownership curve prior to 2000. With 20% down and the government out of the way, housing numbers will eventually find their proper equilibrium...but I doubt even Meridith Whitney could realistically tell you when that will be..especially with an interventionist government...and I don't just mean Obama here..
I read with interest early this morning letters from small business owners to Mish. The phrase "Going Galt" really caught my eye by one small business owner. I am beginning to consider this myself..
Fed policy makers will probably need to resort to “additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures” to shore up the economy, Hatzius said in an interview with Tom Keene yesterday on Bloomberg Radio.
ReplyDeletecall me stupid- but I don't get it- how does moving paper around do anything?
the old saying- "you can you lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink"
BinT-
ReplyDeleteno doubt- I like that- "going Galt"
Atlas Shrugged? Been awhile since I read that book
@Jennifer
ReplyDelete"but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar."
I can't speak for the others... & I also find it easier to give my own opinion on something rather than try and dissect someone else's treatise on a subject...
(except when it comes to annotating moronic Bloomberg articles)...:-)
Anyway - loosely stated... CV's near to mid term bullishness on the dollar is simply based on deflationary forces in effect and debt repayment... and the role the dollar will play during that phenomenon...
I just keep finding one stupid thing after another-
ReplyDeleteIn a bid to prop up the market, the Obama administration plans to offer $1 billion in zero-interest loans to help homeowners who’ve lost income avoid foreclosure as part of $3 billion in additional aid targeting economically distressed areas.
nothing like lending money to people w/ no jobs and no income-
another stellar idea from this administration- although- to put it in perspective- McCain would have probably done all the same stupid shit- outside of health care
CV -- yeah, that's where I am too. I'm thinking of kicking this service to the curb, even though it provides some bullish counterbalance. I'm at the breaking point anyway -- hardly enough time to read what I'm paying for. The whole deflation argument is funny, once you get it, there's just no going back. I find it frustrating that so many smart people I know just can't (don't, won't?) get it. My father has been investing since he was a teen very successfully and he just can't accept the enormity of the debt overhang. We used to be a good trading team but I find that I can't talk stocks with him much anymore.
ReplyDeletegood morning, all! thanks for the Steely Dan, CV. i predict going got will go viral much the way got milK? did : )
ReplyDeleteAhab,
ReplyDeleteI come down pretty hard on Obama, because I don't think there is much there "there"..
But if congress by amendment had to balance the budget every year, we'd be much better off no matter who was in power.
(And we'd have lots more living ex-soldiers...)
here's a market rumour for you: Dubai will sell valuable assets to reduce its debt.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O22Z20100825
@Jennifer
ReplyDeleteLike the Steely Dan Album
"Pretzel Logic"
Bruce-
ReplyDeletebeing President is a tough job- that's why eight months into the year you need to have a minimum of six vacations-
he should probably step it up to one vacation a month lest he become fatigued and not have his razor sharp intellect to guide us
I'm going to point out that YELNICK chart from yesterday and say that what I might be looking for here is one of those 60 minute candles with a tail...
ReplyDeleteObama had a choice early in his presidency - take the politically more palatable route - the "easier" choice, if you will, or go the hard way and try to truly fix things (not just kick the can). He chose poorly and will pay dearly for that. We all will.
ReplyDelete"Whether to "give it up" now, or DELAY "giving it up" until possibly after Labor Day..."
ReplyDeleteThis sounds like an after school special.
manny-
ReplyDeletesee my 9:24- I am not too sure it would have made any difference who was in the WH
Probably not, ahab. The political culuture in D.C. perpetuates this crap. The only thing that will stop it is something major outside of that cesspool.
ReplyDeleteThe Housing Mirage (lots of comments! haven't gotten into them yet.. i expect a lot went galt : )
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449751158395676.html?mod=WSJ_hps_SECONDTopStories
ha! a good one from DR: Quote of the day: “… Here’s how you will know if there is a bond bubble — ask your colleagues how many of them own bonds in their accounts. When nobody/almost nobody raises their hand you should be comforted in knowing that the prospects of the existence of a “bond bubble” have been reduced.”
ReplyDeleteAnd instead of radically changing course (and thus admitting the first one hasn't worked), he just keeps digging and the hole just gets bigger and bigger. Sounds very familiar.
ReplyDeleteInteresting quote, karen. Makes me feel better about being mostly in bonds and cash. For now.
ReplyDeletemanny-
ReplyDeleteDC has issues- but I found a great little pizza place on Capitol Hill-
so as CV would say- they have that going for them
@karen
ReplyDeleteSometimes logic just comes and kicks you in the head doesn't it...?
Meanwhile, TLT just slowly climbs every single day lately. Fun to watch.
ReplyDeletelol, ahab. See, we aren't always Debbie Downers over here on this blog.
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDelete"he just keeps digging and the hole just gets bigger and bigger."
That's what he meant by SHOVEL READY JOBS
The 4% drop in durable goods will just cement thinking about what has already transpired the last two weeks.
ReplyDelete..Damn that Rosenberg!
Well, there you go, cv. I must have initially misinterpreted that comment. My bad.
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteI like that avatar- I am going switch mine up one of these days-
I have been thinking about changing my username to Happy Sunshine- with a name like that I think I would see the world in a whole new light-
lol
You'd probably get a job offer from CNBC as well, ahab. Good career move.
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDelete"Happy Sunshine"
You'd be the star of every blog NOT named 'Survivor capital"
Morgan Stanley's at it again. Flailing. Might be right eventually but probably way early, which = wrong.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-says-governments-will-default-only-question-how
"but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar."
ReplyDeleteLoaded question here, I don't know who Gary is but we should recognize there are in fact several different methodologies one could use to determine a cycle. I would be interested in reading what he has come up with, or dissecting it rather. A 4 year cycle on the dollar makes me want to say a lot of things but I'll reserve my opinion on his until I can read it.
Some words on cycles from RP:
"There are two things that cuase cycles to be difficult. One of them is that occasionally there is a shift in one subharmonic. If you have, for instance, a 24-week cycle and it subdivides into three eight-week cycles, occasionally you find that there is a fourth 8 week cycle that you can't explain, pushing the more sever bottom out eight weeks.
The other thing, which is rarer, is a complete shift in cyclic length. One big key to good cycle work is to stay on the alert for a shift in dominance of the different length cycles."
I think the second point might apply to the dollar here, but again, would have to read his work.
From an Elliott Wave perspective I've got very bullish implication charts either using Andy's count or EWI's count. I've not found one instance in 2.5 years of a losing trade when the two of them together draw similar conclusions with an asset class.
@cv: And ZH. I think he'd get eaten alive over there.
ReplyDeleteyou all see tbt sub 30..
ReplyDeleteTLT a +109 handle. Wow.
ReplyDeleteCrescenzi discussing deleveraging Japan:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9oz3nk6w2U
did anyone catch Mark Cuban's very long post in response to BR yesterday-
ReplyDeleteI thought he had a lot of good things to say-
believe it or not
What is the deal with the VIX? I would have thought it would be higher at these levels.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteAt ZH... he could always retort with the
"Sunshine Bitchez!" defense (and get away with it)
DR's old buddy at Merrill made, what I thought was a good point this morning on CNBC, not word for word but as I recall it:
ReplyDelete"people are calling bonds a bubble because they don't understand it so today the reaction is to call it a bubble. I don't see the dynamics of a bubble being there, for one, you don't see people in mass quitting their jobs to day trade treasuries"
A simple, but effective point imo.
manny-
ReplyDeleteHappy Sunshine not a winner@ ZH?
hey- once they bask in the glow of my optimism- the whole dynamic of the blog will change-
no?
lol
@karen
ReplyDeletetbt... I bow to your call on that (I do)...
But I made money on the trade anyway - so we're both happy...
My profits on that bought me that 6 pack of STELLA (which was very good by the way)...
What rabbits do they have left to pull out of Benny and Timmy's ass, I mean, hat?
ReplyDeleteI saw the Cuban post, pretty much agreed with everything he said.
ReplyDeleteBesides outright printing?
ReplyDeleteany tweets on topstep on support?
ReplyDeleteAgree with ahab and ben on the Cuban post, as irritating as he can be.
ReplyDelete"you don't see people in mass quitting their jobs to day trade treasuries"
ReplyDeleteb22- exactly- people are diving into treasurys for safety- not to get rich
he also made the point of saying that the 10 year yield is hardly irrational right now, something that would be evident if it were a bubble, you are still getting a positive real return at these low levels.
ReplyDeleteAnd if you bought a large chunk of T's at the lows, you're doing pretty damn well right now.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteI agree he can be a bit wild but I've always liked Cuban, he's just very passionate, sometimes that comes across the wrong way, I can relate.
What he says about the Wall St. game couldn't be more accurate imo, and I love that he said that the odds are "stacked against" the individual investor, not that anything was "rigged", a slight, but very important difference.
CV, no topstep yet but remember they won't be doing a video till after Labor Day (?)... I'll run my movies out to the mailbox and put BladeRunner at the top of the queue.. unless I download it.. Don't forget Red.
ReplyDeleteJennifer.. i have VXX underwater.. DXD, too.. even now under 10K.. might close it out today.. it's a money vampire. Traded the others smarter.. Can't win 'em all.
while it's still Johnny's time here, bears really need to see this 1040 zone erased.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, ben. I go back and forth on my opinions of him quite a bit. I think he nailed Wall Street dead on. The retail investor really has no business being in that game unless they truly can accept the risk and fact the dack is "stacked against" them (better term than "rigged", agreed) and can do the necessary homework themselves, but Wall Street needs them in equities to thrive. They're the "mark".
ReplyDeletecv.. WE already know support.. 1040, 1010, 980... : )
ReplyDeleteNLY sub 17! finally.. but DRV hardly budging.. I'm dumping that one for small gains today. I give up! I might buy some NLY and JNK, laughing..
If you're going to get Blade Runner...
ReplyDeleteMight as well go with the DIRECTORS CUT
mrtopstep
ReplyDeleteremember this= $ES_F #futures cant fall in love with this, get in, get out take your $$ when they give it to you and ALWAYS USE STOPS!
mrtopstep
#futures #traders 4 those that can/like risk first time down we & top notch are looking at 1034-1037 area sup obviously caution w/homes #
@karen
ReplyDeleteI kno MY support... I just want to see if it's going to hold THIS MORNING or not :-)
karen-
ReplyDeleteare you kidding that you never saw "Blade Runner"-
those replicant's are bad asses- Darryl Hannah at her finest- the end is quite moving
CV- the director's cut doesn't have the voice over I believe- I actually liked the voice over
276K on new homes-
ReplyDeletewhen it gets to zero we'll be right where we need to be
Interesting... 1034-1037...
ReplyDeleteBecause while I have 1040 as an important number, there are patterns on the chart that align with something like that (a little lower - but not outright 1010 just yet)...
My guess is that the chart is starting to draw the price channels angles and boundaries that it will follow during minor 3 of 3...
Manny,
ReplyDeleteslowly but surely people are waking up to that fact about being in equities and how Wall St. is the place that makes money off that, "in the long run", not them. Whether or not we get a P3, I think Prechter's more social forecast that when this particular bear market is finally over, that stocks will be more hated than perhaps at any time before, is going to be spot on.
We seem to only be in the early stages of this, one of the wide lense reasons I'm still bullish on bonds.
Don't look now, but with 20 minutes to go in the Johnny hour, if the market can get itself back to 1048-ish or above...
ReplyDeleteYou'll have one of those "yelnick looking" 60 min candles (from chart yesterday)...
well, futures hit 1037 10 min ago? can't tell exactly.
ReplyDelete(d*mn safari "quit unexpectedly" on me; had to redo everything! so maddening : )
@McF (10:08)
ReplyDeleteThat and... THE FUN
CV,
ReplyDeletethere is a classic daily pivot at 1037.40 and a .618 fibo at 1036.47.
good eyes.
@ben: Agreed. Not there yet. In fact, had a conversation with one of the folks on my recent SA trip. He never sold anything on the last crash and says he won't now either. Nice guy though. Works at AIG on the insurance side and joined them in a strategic planning role right before all the shit went down in '08.
ReplyDelete276k housing...
ReplyDelete"The Summer of Our Discontent"
CV,
ReplyDeleteI thought that Yelnick chart might come in handy...
there are 4 cuts of Blade Runner..
ReplyDeleteWorkprint, Theatrical, Final, and Theatrical & Director's...
wonder if this is the way to go: The Workprint edition is a rarely seen, newly remastered work print version of the film ???
@ben
ReplyDeleteIn the S&P cash... you have that 1039.83 as the low, and a bounce from there...
It's re-tracing wave 2 (on 1 minute charts)...
So it COULD thrust up in a 3 and get to 1048 in a jiffy...
15 minutes to go to stamp that hourly candle...
"Works at AIG on the insurance side and joined them in a strategic planning role right before all the shit went down in '08."
ReplyDeleteThat's the key right there....he joined them in 08, he wasn't there to feel what that company used to be. I had a client that lost over $8 million in AIG stock in 08, had been there his entire life, he refused to sell no matter what I told him, all the way to the bitter end. Believe me when I tell you, all he thinks about now is how to protect himself before another large fall, it took 2008 for me to finally get his ear.
Has he embraced the bond? Yes.
Karen- I know the theatrical has voice over- which may be helpful if you are watching for the first time
ReplyDeleteOT: watching that oscar speech you posted last night, CV.. can you believe all 5 of those fantastic movies in one year?
ReplyDeleteI still have to say:
ReplyDeleteWWTT
What Was Tiger Thinking
Elin gets more attractive with each new pic i see of her....guess it just wasn't good enough for the big baller. Nutso.
Thanks, ahab.. i do like a voiceover..
ReplyDeleteembrace bitchez!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI agree with ahab... The voiceovers were good...
It helped to understand a lot of the more subtle aspects of what was going on...
WWTT! love that..
ReplyDeletezerohedge
For all wondering why Brian Sack (head of the PPT) is not at Jackson Hole this year, today's action should explain it
mrtopstep
#futures $ES_F in case another retest of the low take some $$ off the table & set up for another opp
been hanging out here too much lately, I got my water bill yesterday, opened it up and thought of CV, lol.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDelete"Shawshank Redemption" is in my top 5 all time too...
ah zero hedge, the gift that keeps on giving,
ReplyDeletehow's that illegal to short on POMO days call working out for them?
Agreed, cv. Have probably seen that movie more than 10 times. There was a stretch where it was on TBS literally every week.
ReplyDeleteOK people...
ReplyDeleteLet's get those DOW 10,000 hats ready for a big celebration!
ready! lmao
yeah I almost bought Shawshank once but it's on tv all the time. that is a great movie.
ReplyDeleteWell we tested the 1041.83 (.1459 from 1219.80). A close below should allow for a retest of 1010. A close above and we're headed back to 1110.02 (unfortunately).
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteWhere's THE FUN in that? :-)
BreakingNews - Colombia authorities issue red alert, highest level, for Galeras Volcano, indicating it could erupt at any moment - CNN http://bit.ly/cICgZa
ReplyDeleteI'm a little behind, just reading the Yelnick post about the wicks now. Funny, I always thought that those funny wicks were "pointing" the way that the market wanted to go. I get the whole idea of what makes the wick, which would really argue for a reversal. I'm guessing they are only good for 3-4 candles afterwards in whatever time frame you're trading in.
ReplyDeleteall I can say is... so far this bounce off the morning lows is UNDERWHELMING & UNINSPIRED
ReplyDeletespewing lava bitchez!
ReplyDeletetop five lists- reminds me of the movie High Fidelity w/ Tom Cusack-
ReplyDeletealthough he was talking music
@mcf
ReplyDeleteOne of the things that I've been seeing lately on Dan's charts is that he's been doing TRENDLINE breaks on the RSI's and MACD's...
(not just bullish or bearish divergences)
Sometimes it's pretty useful...
yes, blade runner, in my top 5 as well, favorite scene in his apartment with vangelis' love theme playing (loosely based on "you don't know me"?) encapsulates the whole premise of the story.
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeletemrTS new to twitter = who has the symbol for SPX #options? hearing a paper paid 5.00 on 20k 1100 calls we wud like to spread the word...
buying 1040 every time is only going to work until it doesn't.
ReplyDeleteit can't be that easy for long
5 bucks for 1,100 calls?
ReplyDeletewell, that's interesting.
@karen
ReplyDeleteI see that trade, but there's still twice as much volume in 1050 puts paying $3
Maybe they're all just SELLING everything north & south of 50 and will just wait it out until Yom Kippur...
ReplyDeletegiven what XLF has done today that chart looks dreadful now.
ReplyDeleteJNK hit 50 ema..
ReplyDeleteHi Ho Silver
ReplyDeleteSome commodity hedge fund must have blown up on a silver short...
ReplyDeleteThat's THE FUN!
ReplyDeletethere are some interesting takeaways from ths NLY letter:
ReplyDeletehttp://annaly.com/blog/2010/08/24/HomeSalesUpDownOrSidewaysFromHere.aspx
div yield on nly is now above 16%..
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeletefrom earlier 08:43:45 rolling down??? : hearing Barclay? SPX sep 1050-1070 put sld 44k @ 10.00
@mcf
ReplyDelete"buying 1040 every time is only going to work until it doesn't.
it can't be that easy for long"
---
Should have paid me on zat heand...
mrtopstep
ReplyDeleteRT drakoncapital @mrtopstep im seeing 25k contracts traded there so far...just a sec ago another 1000 at 4.50 broken up, all done in chic
stop twisting those oreo's!
ReplyDeleteC'mon Man!
I feel as though there is huge battle being fought in the market right now, point of recognition or something.
I'll stop posting those topsteps.. unless something really seems interesting.. are Nic and I the only ones on Twitter ??
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteAs for me... I like the topstep tweets... so post away...
Karen -- do you ever read Harry Newton's blog? Its called In search of the Perfect Investment. He freely admits he is a yield hog. The high yield chasers are in love w/ NLY. I wonder if they know what NLY does....but there I go being so negative again :-)
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI like those top step tweets, fwiw.
I'm not on twitter.
A Real Man... sighing..
ReplyDeleteA real man is a woman's best friend. He will never stand her up and never let her down. He will reassure her when she feels insecure and comfort her after a bad day.
He will inspire her to do things she never thought she could do; to live without fear and forget regret. He will enable her to express her deepest emotions and give in to her most intimate desires. He will make sure she always feels as though she's the most beautiful woman in the room and will enable her to be the most confident, sexy, seductive, and invincible...
No... wait... sorry... I'm thinking of wine. It's wine that does all that.......
Never mind.
Sometimes the yield hogs are right....
ReplyDelete"No... wait... sorry... I'm thinking of wine. It's wine that does all that.......
ReplyDeleteNever mind."
If you hadn't have come to that conclusion on your own... I would have stepped in to remind you... :-)
bulls need a strong close today, none of this little dump action at 3:30.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoSCyTgxaic&feature=search
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/08/25/oily-boom-trash-gulf-spill-heads-landfills-state-environmental-issues/?test=latestnews
ReplyDeleteOily boom, trash from Gulf spill heads to landfills, some with state environmental issues
"The oily waste may not be the most toxic thing in those landfills," said Kurt Pennell, an environmental engineer at Tufts University who sits on a National Research Council committee studying groundwater problems near landfills and Superfund sites. "But obviously if ... the landfill isn't well controlled, that is problematic."
EPA Assistant Administrator Mathy Stanislaus, who oversees the agency's waste management plans, said the landfills can handle the oily waste properly.
"The landfills ... have the system in place, the kind of liner, the kind of monitoring systems to manage this so that there are not environmental impacts," Stanislaus said in an interview. "If there are any issues of concern, we will revisit."
...You CAN handle the oily waste!
(Apologies to Jack Nicholson)....
Jenn.. haven't heard of harry newton but will look him up!
ReplyDeleteCV.. I forgot about that movie.. : )
Think about it...
ReplyDeleteJust last wednesday we were at KT...
BTW.. Jennifer.. NLY seems to be super smart.. I follow their blog..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.annaly.com/blog/
"The Last Time The 10 Year Was Here, The S&P Was At 805"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-time-10-year-was-here-sp-was-805
The last time the 10 Year was here, we weren't in ZIRP + QE 1.5...
ReplyDeleteKaren -- thanks, I didn't know they had a blog. I just figured that anybody that involved in MBS has to be trouble. Simplistic, maybe...but what can I say. I've never traded the stock.
ReplyDeleteYou take your 10k hat off,
ReplyDeleteYou put your 10k hat on.
You do the Hokie-Pokie and you shake it all around...You put your left foot...
Oh, I forget all those ditties..
@anon
ReplyDeleteOh... sorry... MY BAD...
Stocks are fairly and properly valued here because of the solid fundamentals that are brought about by ZIRP & QE...
I'm feeling as tho we've come to a stand still, or stalled..
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDeleteand according to Bill Gross...
No government entity = no housing recovery...
So let me re-phrase that...
no government = no recovery
null the sets...
government = recovery
It does not compute.... 666 fatal error
BLUE SCREEN
GLD candle is currently black.. might be a safe short here for an overnight trade.. DRV is going to drive me to drink : )
ReplyDeleteYep, cv. The gov't IS the housing market right now. They have no easy way out at this point. It's "keep digging" and doubling down time. They certainly won't radically change course, as that will be an implicit admission they were wrong, which our fearless elites never do.
ReplyDeleteJeff! Giraffes! That must have been something.. I got to feed giraffes from my hand at The Wild Animal Park on the Safari truck.. As exquisite and tempting as they are, we were told that they do not like to be touched.. Oh, my, and their eyes are perfection.. deep pools with the longest most luscious black lashes. Their tongues are blue-black and ever so long! A bit frightening but they seemed so docile. I respected the instructions but others in the group just had to stroke their necks.. and they did not like it one bit.. fascinating.
ReplyDeletei might buy back some DTO.. especially the 1k shares I sold above 85. Today is getting weird and weirder, to me..
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDelete[10:27:13 AM]: 10 yr U 26.5 Straddle Vs U 27C, ^ 26.25, 25 delta, UBS -7500 @ 31, straddle over.
3 minutes ago via web
mrtopstep
earlier $ZB_F shows [09:52:59 AM]: 10 yr Z 27.5-29.5 c/s, Barclays +6K @ 36, +16K all day also, 10 yyr V 25.5-26.5-27.5 c-fly, UBS -40K @ 9
Wow karen. We didn't get to feed them but walked upon three of them on an early morning walk last week. Quite a sight. We then saw more on a little drive through the game reserve, along with zebras, warthogs, hippos and other assorted animals. Pretty cool. I'll post some more of the pics on next Manny Monday's post on the other blog.
ReplyDeletewell, karen, if drv does drive you to drink at least it wiil make you feel as though you are the most beautiful woman in the room. (tho' i suspect you really are, regardless)
ReplyDeleteAs we walked toward them, they just stared at us and slowly walked the other way, eventually going into a trot into the hills. Was fun watching them move though. Funny looking creatures.
ReplyDeletebat, now you are embarrassing me.. but I will say that I know I will look and feel better this evening after my son gets on a plane back to NY : )
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteLOL - It was my dad's ritual to always drive me to Dulles Airport when I had to fly back to Italy after my visits...
When asked why he was so intent on handling that job... his response...
"I just wanted to make CERTAIN that you didn't miss that plane"!
CV.. that is perfect.. seems, too, that he may have contributed to your sense of humor : )
ReplyDeletefyi: mrtopstep
ReplyDeletethere is a free 2 week trial link there as well as futuresmonster.com we trust we have helped u make some $$ and we will try to remain here
mrtopstep
FYI this forum is not as timely as our subsrciption service. you can visit mrtopstep.com which is still under construction & meet us.
mrtopstep - we are working under the wing of option monster (CNBC fast money Najarian bros) they are guiding us thru this process... all the different names confuse me too! but it is a way to get the content out. subscribtion service has more flow/ideas for opportunity
ReplyDeleteeach move back up still look like 3's
ReplyDeleteEUR-JPY 106.9910 1.0248 0.97%
ReplyDeleteCarry not dead?
Weak auction of 5y Ts, 1.37% yield and BTC < 3.
I had to go out, got the verdict on my Yukon vs the moose. My yukon is a write off.
ReplyDeleteBefore we have a GM slagfest I will say that my mum and I and four dogs are all fine, whereas the moose which was about 1000lbs was not so fine.
Nic.. Glad to learn that.. I assume you and your mother were wearing seatbelts... but the dogs? I sounds lucky overall!
ReplyDeletealaidi - #Aussie remaining sluggish. w/ limited gains in $AUDJPY (see latest IMT) & $AUDUSD, still weakest currency ahead of bernanke & GDP $$
ReplyDeletedto at/near low of day.. i haven't rebot..
ReplyDeleteoh, just spent some reading time at TBP.. catching up on that Cuban business and enjoying some of the comments of philipat.. "The only equities I have are Gold Miners and EM/Asia, where I have lived for over 30 years and do know a thing or two about."
ReplyDeleteYep, very lucky. Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteAUDJPY will be stuck until after the election stalemate is resolved.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if we are in for a close similar to yesterday's last 30 minutes...
ReplyDeletewhile gdx is constructive and in an albeit temporary uptrend again.. there is nothing bullish about FCX on the long term weekly chart..
ReplyDeleteOZ has more problems than the election however.. that's just been the straw to break the camel's back, i suspect.
ReplyDeletewishing i'd thrown some cash at tbt under 30.. even for a half point trade : )
ReplyDeletedto at 81.51 will be a good buy, i suspect..
ReplyDeletealaidi
ReplyDelete$USDX BULLS BEWARE ahead of Bernanke's "unusual QE2 uncertainty" speech in JaxonHole & Q2 GDP revision on Friday
TBT will be down again tomorrow - POMO in 10-30y bonds. Once TLT makes a lower high, I could fancy shorting bonds again.
ReplyDeleteAgree with dollar bearish comment above. This is not a great set up for Bucky. Estimates of Q3 GDP now revised below 1.0%.
ReplyDeleteCV, sorry to do this to you.. it's not My Humps, at least.. but guess what song is running thru my head???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go8ABAkQcfk
LOL.. i just called my son by his old pet name, Cakey (as I informed him to his laundry was clean and waiting in the laundry room.) I am getting practically giddy.
Haha Karen, enjoy
ReplyDeletenew quake in central CA but i didn't feel it.. off on a music tangent.. didn't Ben post a great Oasis song some months ago? (it was something other than Wonderwall.. and it was so beautiful.)
ReplyDeleteI'm not really going out on a limb here saying you could easily take the other side of the statment that because GDP "estimates" have been revised lower, that the dollar may struggle.
ReplyDeleteGDP dropped in Q3 2008 more than any other time since 1982 and the dollar did what, exactly?
It's not 2008?
well, it's not 2009 either.
I might have karen, can't remember, they've got some cool songs that never got "big"
ReplyDeletetheir unplugged was actually classic, Liam heckling his brother from the rafters for the whole show, as he had backed out on them just prior to the gig.
oops on C.. CV.. are you tempted ?!
ReplyDeletezerohedge
Mayo says he believes Citi is violating securities laws in their disclosures
3 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet
themosmitsos
What the fuck is CNBC talking about Market Stablization? Am I looking at the same $ES_F 10YR etc charts? WTF?!?!
4 minutes ago via web
zerohedge
Gasprino discloses Citigroup has frozen out Mike Mayo; Citi is what started the bank collapse in 2007 post Whtiney's report
no worries crammer says banks could withstand a 1930's style collapse, nothing to worry about.
ReplyDeletebuy buy buy
Well, ben, i can't find that song.. meant to buy it at the time.. and never did : ( The flashbacks I'm getting of the video were seemingly a Philadelphia street scene.. a corner store of brick or something... some billboards.
ReplyDelete"Like a Champagne Supernova in the sky...."
ReplyDeletedto in 82s now.. think i'll put in the limit order for 81s..
ReplyDeletebtw.. DRV.. I don't even want it but it is tempting me.. UFB.
scratch that.. trying for a piece of dto here and will buy again a point lower..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteDo you really want to short crude here in the face of a weakening dollar outlook? Why not wait for it to hit a retracement target?
Look at Treasuries... yields are rising after the lousy auction. Some of the forced covering may be over. Oil has bounced hard off its lows.
LB's dividend stocks from this morning - green !!
Another POMO tomorrow in 10y and 30y, so there may be one last gasp in TLT. You have been warned, Jeff.
i'm not getting filled.. yet, LB.. on DTO, that is.. trading around a core position that is up over 30%..
ReplyDeletedrv making a new low on the day.. if i didn't have some under 25, i'd probably buy more, rolling my eyes.. hate that etf..
ReplyDelete@mcf
ReplyDelete"I'm not really going out on a limb here saying you could easily take the other side of the statment that because GDP "estimates" have been revised lower, that the dollar may struggle."
---
Yeah, but when it's Joe Lavorgna REVISING GDP estimates down... people tilt their heads & listen (rolls eyes)
@karen
ReplyDeleteEvery day, C and SPY have the most volume of options contracts traded...
So I suppose the good news is that a piker could get in there without getting EATEN ALIVE by a bigger fish...
"Joe Lavorgna REVISING GDP estimates down..."
ReplyDeleteis surely a LATE EVENT in the realization of slower growth, and therefore as far as Mr Market is concerned, a CONTRARY INDICATOR.
1051! i would love for this to hold.. that would mean a weak and weaker spx.. and more bulls would capitulate.
ReplyDeleteThe action in Ts isn't supporting the bear case here. I'm not going to capitulate today, but I am happy to help you get filled.
ReplyDeleteAt a lower DTO price, obviously.
OK... Which commodity hedge fund got blown up on silver today?
ReplyDeleteI don't know, CV, but it's all part of
ReplyDeleteTHE FUN.
LB, the action in Ts is a ten year under at 2.6% yield.. that is bearish and deflationary.. the little squiggles don't matter, yet..
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteHenry 12:35:49 CRUDE: nxt upside pivot is 72.35. A key reversal will require daily sttl abve 73.00. that we do not think is likely to occur
Speaking of "filling"...
ReplyDeleteAll this WEAK RISE action here is making me more bearish by the minute...
If we don't fill that gap from yesterdays open by either the end of the day today (or overnight), I'm going to start going by the notion that the market wants to extend way lower and forget about that for the time being...
Some fib areas from todays low back to complete coverage of that gap would be...
around 1957 (61.8%)
around 1061 (78.6%) - which would be just under, but not touch the gap...
tomorrow: initial and continuing claims..
ReplyDeletePlease vote for Michael from Nordland - click the heart if you don't want google to translate for you. You will see why
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lano.no/fylkesvinnere/flest-stemmer#/
Great post from Mr. Practical at Minyanville, via ZH:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-were-all-race-bottom
okay, i think i did that properly : )
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteThe 10y is clearly under the influence of forced unwinding and irrational exuberance, for the time being. I agree that credit leads, but that is under free market conditions without distortion.
does anyone remember that music ben posted one morning who knows how many months ago? i'm trying the search "feature" of this blog but it is not.. a feature, that is.
ReplyDelete"NIKKEI Don't Lose That Number" was exceedingly clever, btw..
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteHey LB
are there any "penny bonds" that Johnny can get out there and daytrade for 1000% profits when he figures out stocks aren't his cup of tea anymore?
@karen
ReplyDeleteWell since Nikkei LOST it's number (not so much 9,000 - but the fact that it chugged into 20% off of most recent highs)...
Guess what the DOW is going to do soon?
just did an overlay of $nikk and $spx.. which one leads?! LOL
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteWe are BIG MONEY. We don't "do" PENNY BONDS...
Although LEH preferreds might still be out there....