But there are some interesting things to report overnight... Let's put up the heat map!
CV warned everyone YESTERDAY about the "Baconater"... See? It can sense fear.
Oh, first... I'll entertain you with the Bloomberg analysis (LB... now they're stealing "our" carefully crafted headlines)...
Stocks, U.S. Futures, Oil Fall on Concern Economies Slowing
Excerpt:
Stocks dropped for a fourth day, U.S. futures slipped and commodities fell while the yen strengthened to a 15-year high against the dollar on concern the economic recovery is dissipating.
The author was later found roaming the streets...
I realize his body of work is highly technical for a lot of "drive by-ers", so let me break that up into smaller McNuggets...
Stocks futures slipped
Which screen is the PORN on?
Bonds rallied.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average entered a bear market...
For you native New Yorkers (who are doing blow in the Hamptons)... It means this...
I'm not here to tell anybody how to trade this (even though there are abundant hints on previous threads)... It's all just a PROBABILITY MATRIX (as any half baked technical trader would tell you)... The bottom line is... this is a "trading" blog, and many of the traders here do this for a living (managing large accounts for others), or otherwise trade large accounts for themselves...
We may joke around from time to time, but when it comes to making trading profits?
We ain't talkin' about PRACTICE...
Good Luck Today!
Hoochie Mama!
ReplyDelete$TNX - 2.52
@wunsacon (sulu)
ReplyDeleteWas that actually some kind of quote from Sulu?
I was never a "Trekkie" (though I didn't mind the show that much either)...
So I suppose the reference was lost on me...
PPT hard at work this morning trying to keep things above 1050...
ReplyDeleteLOL...ZH
ReplyDelete"This is not the start of the global panic you are looking for. That is all..."
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/hildebrand/YEN%208.24_0.jpg
Japan's fiscal crisis- An Anatomy of a Keynesian Failure
ReplyDeletehttp://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/02/japan-anatomy-of-keynesian-failure.html
Obama? Summers? Bernanke? Krugman?
You'll need an extra bib while eating that lobster dinner...
Practice?
ReplyDeleteYears ago when EWI laid out their ideas about what the dollar would do during deflation they stated over and over that the dollar would not rise against all currencies as debts in some currencies might deflate faster than debts based in dollars. If you think about it that way the USD:JPY relationship isn't really a big shocker.
ReplyDeleteam i seeing what i think i'm seeing?? i wouldn't gotten up before this!!
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
PERHAPS matching today's GLOBEX LOW ~#1051.50#??) 08/24/10
dissention in the ranks at the Fed is the buzz o' the morning. Potent Directors....yah...sure they are.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteIt was the "Stellas"... It was the "Stellas"...
We have a new STELLA INDICATOR!
Usly start - sell the rumour and buy the news..?
ReplyDeleteNo matter what happens... CV is going to book some profits here at the open, go back to neutral... and wait out the next move...
ReplyDeleteI'm already having fun...
no matter where we open all the action is in that 1040 area, really need to see how it acts there.
ReplyDeleteWhy do I hear the little piggy going "wee, wee, weeee!"
ReplyDelete@mcf
ReplyDelete"The Bears... are who we THOUGHT they were" :-)
I might be inclined to play a jump if there were a big drop out of the gate but buying the dips was the game plan before....as stated here we switched to selling rips about two weeks ago, the scalping may be easier on the long side for a time, the down waves are tending to be fives, the up waves threes.
ReplyDelete1040 is definitely the GAME LINE...
ReplyDeleteoh, just a reminder, mercury went into retrograde at Friday's close, that seems a fairly reliable indicator since 07, if nothing else it's just fun to look at right?
ReplyDeleteon my 9:25, I meant to say that the scalping would be easier on the short side, since we are going in five waves down and three up.
ReplyDeleteb22- regarding the Fed-
ReplyDeleteThe Fed is still way behind the curve in terms of how bad the economy is. It's paralyzed . . .there was this fear that the Fed knew something about bad news coming down the pike that the public hadn't heard yet. In fact, as we now know, the Fed isn't seeing what everyone else is.
today is the FULL Moon.. I saw it last night and it is HUGE.
ReplyDeletethis is for you Ra-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F_G2zp-opg
ahab,
ReplyDeleteinteresting quote/comment, you already know my thoughts.
yes, full moon, good looking out Karen!
ReplyDeleteI saw it last night and it is HUGE.
ReplyDeletethat's what she said
(ok- I'm like a 15 year old)
b22-
that was from the Tech Ticker at YF- not my words
calculated risk has put out a horrid forecast for today's housing figures, they do a little too much of the "other beard" at that site but it's still about as good as it gets for RE info.
ReplyDeleteahab
ReplyDeleteLMAO.
Where's my DOW 10K hat?
ReplyDeleteprofits bitchez!
ReplyDeleteOn more of a political front, I've heard several people mention since Sunday morning that both Bernanke and Obama need to "stake out positions"
ReplyDeleteha!, lets get real, neither one of these guys are prime time....anyone saying this is street dreaming, they are both lost, sort of hard to stake a position when you don't know where you are.
Classic post, cv.
ReplyDelete"Where's my DOW 10K hat?"
ReplyDeleteCNBC has supposedly purchased the remaining supply, they wanted to buy now before the inflation hit.
well, I would have liked to see a bigger dump here at the open, it really isn't so wave 3 like, so I remain skeptical that we are really dropping hard right here right now. this isn't the worst thing in the world though.
ReplyDeleteKaren's 2.50% coming into view for the full moon.
ReplyDeleteNice call. 2.52% on the 10y here..
CV, bet you are glad you sold your TBT.. : )
ReplyDelete@mcf
ReplyDeleteYeah... I'm over & done with for now...
I'll wait to see the next move...
@karen
ReplyDeleteQuickies can be fun sometimes...
Brian says (to Johnny):
ReplyDelete"The FUN"
much confusion reamins around the web, too many people are taking the term "printing money" literally, I feel bad for them, they are not understanding.
ReplyDeleteCV is turning into I-Man in his absence
ReplyDeleteLOL.. again, you are not telling me anything I don't know !! Another area of expertise for me : )
ReplyDeletesort of hard to stake a position when you don't know where you are.
ReplyDeleteb22- reminds of Alice in Wonderland when she asked the Cheshire Cat which path she should take- and he asked her where she was going- and she responded that she didn't know where she was going-
so the Cheshire Cat wisely said- if you don't know where you are going then it doesn't matter which path you take-
ok- that's my story tellng for today
Holy TLT.
ReplyDeleteBen, I feel bad for me! get the dow below 10k, pls; then we can start feeling sorry for people.
ReplyDeleteMcF -- too bad you didn't keep the CAT puts.
ReplyDelete$copper down but $gold getting bot like... stink?
ReplyDelete"so the Cheshire Cat wisely said- if you don't know where you are going then it doesn't matter which path you take"
ReplyDeletewow, this may in fact be a brilliant description of current Fed and govt. policy. Nice one ahab.
TLT is now officially a bubble....
ReplyDeleteJennifer,
ReplyDeletere: CAT
ahhh! seriously. oh well, my Sept SPY puts will give me something today at least but yeah, I messed that trade up pretty bad.
LB -- which means it can continue for at least 2 more years based on my previous experience with bubbles.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteRe: "not wave 3-ish"...
I'd tend to agree... (Not that I can interpret wave impulses like you can - but I'm not totally oblivious either)...
Either way... As I've said recently... I've missed too many moves this summer waiting on the last prints (which never seem to come)...
I see a lot of chart gaps overhead:
- This morning
- 1093
- 1118
While we may go down and do further damage here in the 1050 - 1040 area, I'm not convinced that THIS IS IT just yet...
If we settle here, I'm inclined to reverse to a slightly long bias until September rolls around...
Let's see what the tape says...
but this should be a lesson, CAT has no business being above $70....none.
ReplyDeleteI <3 Jennifer @ 9:52!!
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteJP and Morgan Stanley selling the #SPU not looking so nice here
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
"It's Now or Never....." for the bears. Either this number tanks the market or... WHAM-O... it comes in BTE... and we get a reversal.
ReplyDeleteJennifer, true, true, true. I marvel daily at the performance of my bonds, even as I slowly reduce fixed income exposure.
There is an awful lot more yield out there in corporate bonds and dividend paying stocks than there is in the 2y. When does that start to matter?
Thanks, Karen. Sadly, just cuz I can see 'em don't mean I can trade 'em.
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteWe won't know until we know. I'm basically trading right alongside AT of late, I've got small shorts on the equity markets ~35% of portfolio, (biggest on the RUT) but I'm nowhere near max because we might chop like this all the way through the end of the year, per his B wave slide, a fine interpretation of where we are.
I heart the dollar, and despite my troubles, I may take another shot at silver on the short side soon....maybe.
would love to see UUP drop below $24 handle again so I can buy more calls.
ReplyDelete@karen (9:55)
ReplyDeleteThey may be selling, but I'm not seeing excessive VOLUME selling...
CV,
ReplyDeletere: 9:53,
Dan's got that alternate flat count which would bring us back to 1087/1090, that would be a nice for the long side trade if it played out.
yes, volume still looks much more like a B wave than it does a C or a 3....can't deny it, it's august, but I dont' want to make excuses, if people were in a hurry to sell the time of year wouldn't matter.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteTheres your DOW under 10K
Existing Home Sales Drop a Record 27.2 Percent in July
ReplyDeleteIf this blog had a HEAT MAP, all the HEAT would be around Karen....
ReplyDeletecheck out this chart via EWP via Yelnick:
ReplyDeletehttp://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef0133f3470101970b-popup
i only know that gld under 120 is not so hot.. in other words, will continue to hold the dzz a bit longer..
ReplyDeletemight lower my dto target.. want 86.. it's making a 3 mo high today..
@McF (10:00)
ReplyDeleteI was just going to say that about Dan's count...
My thinking is that if "1" of minor 3 should take us below 1010... Then "timewise" a move back to 1087 would probably look better (unless we just fall off a cliff here)...
wow, Calc Risk almost nailed the number, that's some bad shet right there.
ReplyDeleteIt's not like we didn't know no homes were selling. The summer season was completely dead around New York. Everyone wants their 2005 price!
ReplyDelete@karen (10:03)
ReplyDeleteThis is an opex week in PM's
can someone help me with a drv target? it's such a piece of cr*p !! I will make a pittance on it.. (2%) if I sell right now..
ReplyDeleteThat number was WTE, worse than even a lot of bears expected.
ReplyDeleteLB, stop teasing me! where was my wake-up sext?! JK, JK : )
ReplyDeleteSo based on that YELNICK chart...
ReplyDeleteLook for the next 60 minute candle with a long tail/wick...
It's that easy... Just like POMO Thursdays...
ZH headline-
ReplyDeleteHello Double DIPression
"Everyone wants their 2005 price!"
ReplyDeleteI continue to be amazed at how many people say to me.
"Well, I don't want to sell now because the market is bad"
still hanging on to the dream...hitting the snooze button over and over again.
uh, no, it's just....the market, and it's probably going to get WORSE.
@karen
ReplyDeleteThis comment...
"it's such a piece of cr*p !! I will make a pittance on it.. (2%) if I sell right now..."
That ought to pretty much tell you what to do...
BREAKING NEWS
ReplyDeleteStocks are down on THE ECONOMY!
We tagged 2.48% on the 10y....
ReplyDeleteKaren, I capitulate and bow in your general direction (West)....
C,
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't compare the two, Yelnick put that out yesterday afternoon as an example of fractal finance, POMO days....I'm not getting started on that again, I'm simply keeping score.
hmm.. i was thinking of using spx as target for drv.. 1040 isn't really gonna hold, is it??
ReplyDeleteEd Freeman needs a shave and a haircut.
ReplyDelete@ben: CR has been all over the housing situation. Very impressive.
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeletere "everyone wants their 2005 price"
much of it may be necessity- because they can't go to the table w/ cash they don't have to sell their property-
more folks will just walk once they realize they are never getting near what they owe
Anecdotally in my hood I AM seeing some "SOLD" signs nearby. A couple around the corner on a very nice block went very quickly. One went off in less than a month. Am curious about the prices on these though.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry people...
ReplyDeleteObama is on a conference call right now with his LOBSTERNOMICS team...
A solution will be forthcoming...
ahab,
ReplyDeletebut then they'd give up their tax deduction ;-)
Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.- Lawrence Yun
ReplyDeleteboy that last line is like a "get out of jail free" card-
talk about hedging your calls
LQD +0.35%.
ReplyDeleteAGG +0.28%
Nice.
last two 15 min spx candles showing turn.. it's gotta get past 1056, tho..
ReplyDeleteThey should stop d*cking around with the housing market and just let it fall.
ReplyDeleteI guess they were rationally exuberant..
ReplyDelete@ahab: "Rationally"? Rationally's got nothing to do with anything in our culture right now.
ReplyDeleteLooks at the months of supply graph. Wow. Is that due to the shadow inventory now being counted all of a sudden? Or something else?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/existing-home-sales-lowest-since-1996.html
oops.. there goes gold! Ben.. they must be hearing the helicopters..
ReplyDelete12.5 months of supply!!!! Yikes.
ReplyDeleteThat might be all THE FUN we have in store for you today folks...
ReplyDeletePlease return to your usual boredom...
What's that?
ReplyDeletedollar dropping hard.. no money falling from the sky at my house..
ReplyDeleteTHE FUN!
ReplyDeleteSo I guess that means the homebuilder stocks should go nutso, as they build more homes we don't need.
ReplyDeletemanny -
ReplyDeletehave you looked for the sale prices in your neighborhood on zillow?
ZK kills me- check out this picture they have a BoJ central banker-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/hildebrand/Deer%20Headlights_0.jpg
lol
There is always a bull market somewhere.
ReplyDeleteDollar falling will eventually put a floor under this market...
ReplyDelete@72bat: Good thought. Will do that once these homes close. Very curious about what these two homes went for...
ReplyDeleteput everything together we may get a huge bounce here, dollar, gold, support in 1040's, lack of huge volume....put/call was at 1.2 to start the day,...I won't play the long side though, too risky, what's your reward vs. the risk you take to do it?
ReplyDeleteman, I might get that sub $24 UUP before noon at this rate!
ReplyDeletemanny -
ReplyDeleteu might look now to see what they are/were listed at and then compare to sales price once closed.
what else can you say about the housing supply figure now other than:
ReplyDeletethis is NOT good
High yield credit is not selling off.
ReplyDeletewishful thinking ben.. won't happen !! buyers were waiting at 5 ema support line.. bet ya trend turns up by next week!
ReplyDeleteunless you actually believe the FED will PRINT!
without a sharp break of the 1040 zone I'd rule this out as a third wave...no way, back to the alternate for EWI, hehe.
ReplyDelete8 or 9 pennies Karen!
ReplyDeleteYep, will do that too, 72bat. Not that it matters to me. We aren't selling any time soon. Just curious for the bigger picture though.
ReplyDeleteoh I do think the Fed is going to someday literally print, I really do, but that's a long ways away, they are going to continue to try and fight credit destruction with more credit until they just have to admit it isn't working, then I'll finally start to worry about inflation.
ReplyDelete"A double dip is not the most likely outcome but I am concerned about how strong the recovery will be" - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans
ReplyDeletemy impression is that all these central bankers are delusional-
what recovery? where is it already?
@McF
ReplyDeleteYou should be lovin it...
Might get a great chance to add to the dollar calls...
I'm lovin' this market right now...
Sideways doesn't hurt that bad...
CV,
ReplyDeleteno doubt, I'm not fully loaded on the dollar yet so I welcome these corrections so I can find better entries.
also, double dip double schmip
got a recruiting call from LPL in La Jolla today, probably have to pass on that one, but LPL is a good shop. I think that's where Richard Russell lives.
ReplyDeleteI find it really worrisome about what the public's reaction will be when we finally do get the vicious dip that seems inevitable. I don't think it will be pretty to say the least.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteC'MON MAN... La Jolla! Take it...
karens hood...
But you'd have to buy a Porsche...
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I'm wealthy enough to move there, DE is nice and cheap, just the way I like it.
ReplyDelete@mcf
ReplyDeletejust get a piece of land and put one of those log cabin shacks on it just to piss the neighbors off...
La Jolla is in San Diego-
ReplyDeletenice little area for diving
@ben: Not a bad place to be. You and karen could hang out for "real".
ReplyDeleteThe VIX isn't all that high here... Still resting comfortably under 30 with lots of room to spare...
ReplyDeleteMore thing telling me "this isn't the sell-off" we're looking for...
And if the world falls apart a bit, at least it will still be sunny out that way.
ReplyDeleteBut I hear you on the cost of living thing.
DIA yield 2.57%; 10y UST yield 2.50%
ReplyDeleteHYG 8.89%; LQD 4.86%
Gold 0%
We are getting there.
See you all later...
yeah b22-
ReplyDeletemaybe you can hang out at Black's Beach- literally-
lol
I'm not moving....nothing against Cali, but doing what I do, why would I go all the way out there to start over? Would seem like a bad move.
ReplyDeletemain reason I bring that up is that we used to get those calls every day of the week during the "bull market" but they are few and far between now.
ReplyDeleteBen, the only aspects of LJ you would like are the weather and coastline views. whenever RR raves about LJ, I roll my eyes.. lived there, done that : )
ReplyDeletenude beaches bitchez!
ReplyDeleteahab.. a great white pup breached completely just beyond the surf line yesterday.. only 4-6 feet long. i had just averted my eyes, so I missed it. only one surfer left the water : )
ReplyDeletethe only nudes at blacks are men..
ReplyDeletei definitely should have sold the drv.. : (
ReplyDeleteuup holding for now.. i'm still fascinated with gld.. and still watching spx for 1058..
If you want to measure an A-B-C down from 1129...
ReplyDelete1048 would be about the 1.618 mark from the "a" wave (as measured from "yelnick's" 60 minute closing candle that had a tail)...
That CLOSE was right at 1078 (which is a favorite level of Amen)...
Just saying...
maybe RSI has to touch the 30 line again before a tradeable bounce, volume appears like it's going to be stronger than the last few days but it still contradicts the impulsive third wave count. If the flash crash was wave 3 of 1, we've got serious work to do in order to see that kind of volume, and volume on 3 of 3 *should be a lot stronger.
ReplyDeleteI'll put up a chart here in a minute...
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletekeep an eye on this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2010/08/23/2010-08-23_cashstrapped_philly_bloggers_must_pay_for_business_license.html
karen-
ReplyDeletewow! not sure I would have stayed in the water. Saw a croc in the surf in Costa Rica- everyone got out of the water-
and blacks beach- used to be plenty of women if my memory serves me right-
the hang gliding was pretty cool- never tried it myself
NEW CHART IN THREAD
ReplyDeleteDraw your own conclusions...
check out the 8/23 fractals trade, front page, prettay good:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.elliottfractals.com/
I prefer a jump to conclusions matt CV
ReplyDeletehttp://a1.phobos.apple.com/us/r1000/036/Purple/42/6b/1d/mzl.ljgpyakv.320x480-75.jpg
@mcf
ReplyDeleteJefferson County West Virginia isn't cash strapped...
CHARLES TOWN RACES & SLOTS bitchez!
@mcf
ReplyDeletethat woman in the "philly bloggers" link has the expression of karen looking at her DRV...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete10:11:58 TOP NOTCH now looking for 1050.50 support area
CV-
ReplyDeleteI just heard an advertisement for "Hollywood" something or other casino in Charles Town-
did they change the name of it? Have been there in a while
@karen
ReplyDeletethe 1050 support is EXACTLY the level I'm looking at right now...
Here's why...
From yesterday...
- the 1057.5 was a .009 fibo extension from yesterdays close
- from todays low, the market bounced and touched right on that 1057.5
- now it's pulling back, but 1050 is a 61.8 retrace from 1057 back to todays low...
It ought to be a decent indicator...
@ahab
ReplyDeleteCharles Town now has TABLE GAMES...
Blackjack/Craps/Roulette/ & a poker room...
They call it "Hollywood"
CV.. for fun, look at the daily C candle.. aapl, too.
ReplyDeletethis day is not over!
A sermon I can appreciate:
ReplyDelete"Government interference in housing markets, which helped produce the disorder known as the financial crisis, is still producing disorder. When houses are "owned" only because the government is supplying lenient, subsidized credit, that is disorder. Given this disorder, rational people do not wish to buy. The rational person wants to buy low, sell high, not buy when the market is rigged to try to keep prices higher than they should be."
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/08/a_consensus_to.html
We just got table games in DE about month or so ago. I live really close to Delaware Park, so I drove down a few weekends ago, $25 minimum bets...so I walked right back out. The place was packed, but they won't be able to do $25 minimum every weekend for very long, once the new-ness wears off it'll be more like $10 so people can bet singles.
ReplyDelete@ben: $25 Min. is high. Once their regulars have lost all of their money, that will go down to $5 or so, I'm guessing.
ReplyDeleteCV/b22-
ReplyDeleteso are these like full blown casinos- is their drinking allowed?
Manny,
ReplyDeleteindeed it is, there is no way they will be able to keep it that high for very long. The roulette tables, pretty much the worst table game, were packed full and people were waitinig to get in at $25. Nuts. At least they could have done craps, or blackjack with those kind of min. bets.
ahab,
ReplyDeleteyeah, full blown casino, poker tourney's all day and night, etc., you can drink in DE but we have really strange laws here with the alcohol, last call in the bars is at 1 am, very early, so they don't serve after 1 at the casino, which is lame and they are not giving free drinks to people playing table games.
they'll wisen up soon enough, you want people to drink when they gamble, even if they aren't paying for the drinks, they water down any mixed drink you ask for anyway.
right now though the one by my house is still dominated by horse races, they've got a big track right there, you can bet football there as well, but no other sports at this time.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI would not be surprised at all to see the day end green...
I covered my "net" shorts this morning... Back to neutral... waiting, actually, for a little more indication of support to actually lean the bias to "net long"...
FWIW
@ben: Yep. We have a few of those here and a racino with full table games. I used to gamble a bit back before moving to Minny but I never go to these places here. Been to the racino once but didn't gamble at the tables. Just really small wagers on the ponies.
ReplyDelete"Interesting article from Jon Hilsenrath in today’s WSJ notes the most contentious issue now is whether to print more money and buy even more long-term securities, which would expand the Fed's portfolio further. A decision hinges largely on whether the Fed sees inflation falling much further or if economic growth fails to revive. The Fed and most private forecasters still expect faster growth in 2011, and few economists are predicting outright deflation. Mr. Bernanke, though striving for consensus, is determined to avoid mistakes of past central bankers that created devastating bouts of deflation. As a Princeton professor in the 1990s, Mr. Bernanke lectured Japanese officials for being too timid about combating deflation. And in now-famous remarks he delivered as a Fed governor at a 90th birthday celebration for Milton Friedman in 2002, Mr. Bernanke promised the Fed would never allow a repeat of the deflation of the 1930s."
ReplyDelete"Goldman’s Economist Jan Hatzius out this morning noting that over the last few months, the US economic indicators have shown a broad-based slowdown. Such a slowdown around the middle of 2010 has long seemed likely given the dependence of growth over the prior year on the boost from the inventory cycle and fiscal policy. The GS forecast is that real GDP will grow at a 1½% (annualized) rate in the second half of 2010 and in early 2011, and the risks to it are tilted to the downside. But the forecasting community has only partially caught up with the deterioration in the numbers. Last week’s FOMC statement suggests that Fed officials still expect the economy to grow at a slightly above-trend rate over the next year or so. Likewise, most private forecasters predict that GDP will grow at roughly a trend rate in the second half of 2010 and a somewhat above-trend rate in 2011. If their view is correct, substantial further downward revisions are coming. In turn, these are likely to trigger downgrades to consensus earnings forecasts toward our strategists' more cautious views, as well as a return to large-scale asset purchases or other forms of "unconventional" monetary policy by the Fed. "
ReplyDeletethey'll wisen up soon enough, you want people to drink when they gamble, even if they aren't paying for the drinks
ReplyDeleteexactly- that way everyone throws caution to the wind-
I wonder how this affects places like Vegas and Atlantic City
@ahab
ReplyDeleteYup... Full blown... Drinking not only allowed, but just like Vegas (drinks are FREE)...
But the CHEAPEST tables are $5/$25...
So they don't want grandma there with her nickles...
I went once to check it out... I'd planned on playing POKER but there was a line a mile long (and they have 27 tables)...
All the craps/roulette/& blackjack tables were PACKED...
FULL HOUSE
I'll play some cards there at some point, I've been tempted to drive down there several times in the last month since I don't sleep much, it's probably nice and quiet at 2-3 am, but I certainly don't want to make it a habit. Cards though isn't really gambling. I like playing Pai Gow Poker but I didn't see any tables for that when i was there.
ReplyDeletenow I'm in the mood to watch Rounders....great movie.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/buy-puts-on-australian-banks-on-bubble-concerns-morgan-stanley-says.html
ReplyDeleteKaren-
ReplyDeletethe way I see it- the Fed is cornered-
I guess if their only goal is to keep asset prices up- then they queeeeze along hoping it works- but there is no way that I see monetary policy helping the unemployment and structural problems with this economy
themosmitsos
ReplyDeleteTough ol' British Julia Childs-type broad talking $¥ Bonds JGBs USTs BUNDs etc on CNBC Europe ... *FUN*
(He must be referring to Nic's gal: Nicole Elliot!)
and I find it interesting that all the prohibitions against gambling are being tossed aside
ReplyDeleteto keep the populace occupied..
ReplyDeletemonetary policy that focuses on borrowing in order to "create expansion" wouldnt' seem to be the most efficient way to encourage job growth eh?
ReplyDeleteThis wouldn't seem to take a PhD to figure out....but I'm not one, so what do I know.
@mcf
ReplyDelete"should have paid me on zat heand"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qPgrCFcwFk&feature=search
@mcf
ReplyDeleteThat's what CV did this morning...
I laid down a MONSTER...
KGB, 11:58
ReplyDeletesweet!
don't twist those oreo's man!
some Damien Hoffman-
ReplyDeleteCompounding the problem is the seismic shift of industrial jobs to emerging markets in Latin America and Asia. Hoffman worries a disappearing middle class and a compromised currency "doesn't bode well" for living standards in America. He warns that unless we fundamentally fix our economic imbalances it'll be wise to teach our children Mandarin -- one of the prime reasons famed investor Jimmy Rogers says he moved his family to Singapore more-than three years ago.
that last line re Rogers- doesn't hold water as everyone speaks English which is mutually understood by all the other dialects that are spoken there-
does everyone remember when it was said we would be speaking Japanese?
gotta roll-
ReplyDeleteall have a good day
Briefing.com is talking down new homes tomorrow in thier briefing note on existing homes today..
ReplyDelete..Seems like someone just got ice water down their shirt...
"Having grown accustomed to a housing market aided and abetted by Uncle Sam, the habit cannot be broken by going cold turkey into the camp of private lending. The cost would be enormous in terms of yields – 300–400 basis points higher than currently offered, crippling any hopes of a housing-led revival to the economy. And why do I and PIMCO support this view? Is it some self-interested, money-making plot to allow us to dominate the bond market? Hardly. "
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-explains-why-housing-ponzi-must-go-or-else-society-nevermind-pimco-will-suffer
Remember that he recently paid $21 mil for his lot or teardown in NB..
ReplyDeletei can hardly deal with this anymore.. the only thing i hope the Fed understands is that if they want to uphold asset prices.. the two that will benefit the most are crude and gold..
ReplyDeletehttp://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=DOMESTIC&guid=%7BEC9CC43F%2D0C99%2D4B85%2D8592%2DA08584406B60%7D&loc=interstitialskip
ReplyDelete"The National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing U.S. homes fell more than 27% in July, the largest one-month drop on record. .
In a speech delivered in Indianapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said unemployment is now behind more housing defaults than careless lending."
....Well, fixing that unemployment thingy...that could prove a little harder nut to crack...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI think economic historians will say that extremely low interest rates had a paradoxical weaking effect on the economy. We have become a nation of cash hoarders...
weaking may also be code for weakening..
ReplyDeleteDbl bottom breakdown on USO P&F chart today.. bearish price objective, $26.. rolling my eyes..
ReplyDeleteFall is right around the corner. How do I know? The high school marching band just did their annual practice march by our house. Good stuff. Bring on some football!
ReplyDeletebruce, funny, but i prefer to think of it in another way.. rates are low, low, low cuz the demand to borrow is not there.. rates will fall until demand picks up.
ReplyDelete@cv: When is our fantasy football draft?
ReplyDeleteif dollar shorts could just feel a little squeeze.. fxy seems to be getting benefit of fxa selling today..
ReplyDeletei keep forgetting, this is the sex/drugs/rock&roll/ff/gambling blog : )
ReplyDeletei bet you all come back out at 1050, laughing. or 2% $tnx : )
ReplyDeleteAs I'm to understand it, mandarin is also very difficult to write vs. English.
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/2010/08/24/china-oil-talking-down-the-price-snp-bhp-pot-ceo-bp/
ReplyDeleteyen intervention my divert money to usd.. so far so good..
ReplyDeletejapan must be full of morons, 20 years later and they are still rapping about "intervention"
ReplyDeletebwahahahahah
filling in for LB: zerohedge
ReplyDelete$37 Billion In Two Year Treasurys Price At Record Low Yield 0.498%, 3.12 Bid To Cover, Indirects Lowest In Over A Year http://bit.ly/cV1u2W
sex/drugs/rock&roll/ff/gambling bitchez!
ReplyDeleteso far 24.05 on the dollar today.
ReplyDeleteC'mon Man!