They call baseball "The National Pastime", but that was a name that was created many years ago (before the TV era), and frankly, is a description that has not been shed, and is really no longer valid...
The "National Pastime" (in this country) is sitting on the couch (or in the stadium parking lot) with a double beer helmet on and shoving brats and chips down your pie hole... (or "steak tartare", as the case may be for your more sophisticated palettes)...
The now-essential relationship between pro football and television actually began on October 22, 1939. That’s when the National Broadcasting Company earned a spot in pro football history by becoming the first network to televise a pro football game. A meager crowd of 13,050 were on hand at Brooklyn’s Ebbets Field on that now-historic day when the Philadelphia Eagles fell to Brooklyn’s Dodgers 23-14.
Five hundred-or-so fortunate New Yorkers who owned television sets witnessed the game in the comfort of their own homes, over NBC’s experimental station W2XBS. Many others saw the telecast on monitors while visiting the RCA Pavilion at the World’s Fair in New York where it was scheduled as a special event.
But really, the moment of recognition of the "popularity" (read DRAMA), of the sport probably came about during the fiasco of the HEIDI GAME...
Within two years, MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL was born, (which extended the "distraction" capacity of the NFL to two days out of seven)... In rapid succession, over the next 4 decades, the following have occurred:
- Cable television has expanded the need for "content" (more games televised)
- Games have become larger spectacles (because of more advertising dollars)
- College Football has been folded into the "spectacle" aspect (adding Saturdays to mix)
- Sunday Night games have been added (meaning now, WHOLE SUNDAYS are filled)
- Thursday Night games have been added (taking the total to 4 days per week)
- Schedules have been expanded to 16 games (creating SATURDAY games to fill in December when the college season ends [and before BOWL GAMES begin])...
- The NCAA has added Wednesday & Friday games (so now, there are NO DAYS without football)
- Fantasy Football has arisen to fill in the time when games aren't ACTUALLY being played.
In short, this has become the MODERN DAY version of "bread & circuses"...
Investors have heard about things like "The January Effect", or the "Santa Claus Rally", or "Sell in May & Go Away"... But truly, the month of September has been the worst performing month in equities over the past 50 years of data... Here... see for yourself...
While I have no "hardcore evidence" to support what I'm about to say, I get the sense that SCARY market moves tend to correlate very closely with the start of the NFL season... I can't find a YOU TUBE clip, but at this moment, ESPN is running a commercial using the song "HIGH HOPES" (and featuring a bunch of guys digging out the banners of their teams and putting them up on the flag poles in their front lawns)... The ending line? "At this point, EVERY team is still undefeated"...
So say what you want about "low volatility" summers, "traders in the Hamptons", Congress on vacation in August, or whatever... CV holds out that these days, it would be political, and economic suicide to allow systems to crack and crumble before the BREAD & CIRCUSES start...
So don't worry about bubbles in bond markets, FOREX, Hindenburg Omens, Implied Correlations in equities, dark crosses, just yet... Wait for J6P to get his ass firmly on the couch, with his beer helmet on, the remote in one hand, and the chip bowl within reach of the other... Wait for Jane6P to pull her pink jersey out of the wardrobe closet... Wait until you see those little flags on automobiles as you drive around town...
They're coming very soon... Then you'll know that the CIRCUSES have started, and ROME can burn down all around it, if it so pleases...
So as to get into the spirit myself, I'm going to start a feature on Tuesdays (which I'm unabashedly copying from ESPN called "C'MON MAN")... I won't waste time explaining what it is, but here's an example)...
Between CNBC, Bloomberg, the WH, Congress, and other blogs, that dance card ought to easily get filled on a weekly basis...
It's just PRE-SEASON (as we speak)... Which means that "starters" usually only play one quarter... So I'll keep this weeks version "lite"...
Is It Time to Surrender to the Downtrend?
Excerpt:
Instant Insights with the Fast Money Traders:
"I’m seeing a lot of investors buying long dated options protection, says Tim Seymour. Specifically, a lot of huge hedge funds are buying SPX puts. The action suggests to me they think the S&P is going lower."
---
C'MON MAN!
"Does ripe fruit never fall?"
ReplyDeleteCV, you probably won't think this strange when I say I think the *familiarity and love of football* keeps people occupied and distracted. For instance, as the market kept plummeting in 2008-2009, the "doom" felt palpable to me. But, the appearance of football on my TV told me "it's not the end".
ReplyDeleteAt least (for me) not until the first week of February. (I don't watch any other sports...) ;-)
hold the tartare sauce-
ReplyDeletethat's pretty funny
Housing starts in July 2010 were 546,000, up 1.7% from the prior month, but down 7.0% from the prior year. Building permits were 565,000, down 3.1% from June and down 3.7% from July 2009.
ReplyDeletehoping we get a day or three of low volume ramp to sell.
ReplyDeleteCome on Man!
@McF (8:44)
ReplyDelete"You'll get nothing and like it"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrpx4NAtsFQ
from our man Timaay-
ReplyDeleteWe will not support returning Fannie and Freddie to the role they played before conservatorship, where they took market share from private competitors while enjoying the perception of government support," Geithner said.
seems that perception turned out to be cold hard reality-
C'mon man!
(great post by the way)
shoot.. do i need to read this morning's audible, ahab? I thot it was about football and baseball. big up day not doning much for me either way except i should have bot that silly CAGC I keep talking about : )
ReplyDeletemorning!!!
C'mon Man!
ReplyDeleteawesome! we got 1089.05, "that'll do, Pig."
ReplyDeleteyesterday after the close i posted some of paulsen's fat dumb bets.. not sure if anyone saw them.. i wasn't on line last night so missed the wrap completely.. : (
ReplyDeleteOK karen - Here's a thread especially for you... (on a low volume August Tuesday)...
ReplyDelete"Housing Starts Up in July, Permits at 14-Month Low"
The US housing market remained weak as housing starts rose, but to a much weaker rate than expected, while permits for future home construction fell...
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
still have the gold short but it is barely uup.. : )
ReplyDeleted*mn aussie jumped the lines.. but that won't last, just torture us a bit.
I read the opposite yesterday: Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Production in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July, easing concern the industry that led the economy out of the recession is beginning to slow.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1f1FJJ0EjDg
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI hope you are using sunscreen..
1088.71 was the .009 fibo extension from yesterdays close...
ReplyDeleteJust as 1069.63 was the .009 fibo extension from Fridays close...
Is this the C wave of ii? I don't know, if it is one more push up might complete it, but who knows.
ReplyDeletec'mon man!
Paulson will explode before 2016. Heard it here first.
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeletehow are you short gold...etf?
The Bacon Indicator: What Sizzling Prices Say About the Economy
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38725523/
Excerpt:
"Well hold on to your frying pan because, as it turns out, it’s actually a good sign for the economy.
We’re seeing consumers making their very first step toward taking that luxury item,” said Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale Inc. “They may not be buying steak instead of hamburger, but they will put bacon on their hamburger or other things,” he explained."
---
all CV can say is... C'MON MAN
"THE BACON-ATER"
ReplyDeleteHarry Wanger says... "The indices will lead us higher"
take a hard look at that PPI data,
ReplyDeletegive me a D
give me an E
give me an F
"We’re seeing consumers making their very first step toward taking that luxury item,” said Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale Inc. “They may not be buying steak instead of hamburger, but they will put bacon on their hamburger or other things,” he explained."
ReplyDeleteWTF?!
seriously....WTF?
DOH!
ReplyDeleteMorici: Deflation and President Obama’s Legacy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38735535
ben. 2k dzz at 10.94. yesterday's boredom might be today's loss.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteSo I'm thinking that when they start putting bacon on their hamburgers IN BRAZIL (who will be getting the Olympics)...
We'll see DOW 36,000 shortly thereafter...
That's why Rich Nelson makes the BIG BUCKS...
peeps seen the Tonny Robbins video that is all over the web. Everyone seems to think he's talking about PTJ, which would seem correct.
ReplyDeleteCharles Hugh Smith's Bullish Case, Part 2
ReplyDeletehttp://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug10/disconnect-bullish08.html
it could just as easily be Robert Prechter though.
ReplyDeletetoday I will not open his nonsense link Karen, that was one of the worst articles I've ever read, some of the weakest analysis I've come across.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteIs this the C wave of ii? I don't know, if it is one more push up might complete it, but who knows.
If you look at the AH prints, this "C" as you describe looks to be like this mornings move was a "3" within that C (and that right now we're in a flat wedge "4")...
I'm guessing that 109.50-is (SPY) would be the ending wave target of that...
...but who knows?
this video of Robbins?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/11/how-to-weather-the-econom_n_677769.html
C,
ReplyDeleteyour guess is as good as mine that short term but you are seeing it basically like I was, that the C wasn't over, we were maybe just in the middle but it won't take too much longer, should complete before the week is over if that count is correct, lets see if the bulls have it in them to run at 1,100 again.
Karen,
ReplyDeletethat's the one, and the pause on that one is hilarious, with is banana hands. (From Shallow Hal)
I don't really care what he says, just curious who it is he's talking about.
Stuff we already know...
ReplyDeleteNevertheless - a "treatise" on the subject...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-purpose-behind-engineered-economic-collapse
Jennifer - Maybe you print a copy of this and take it to the group to have to explain things to...
@McF
ReplyDeleteI've been saying since last week that... this being OPEX week... There's a chance that SPY 110 might be protected...
So at this point I wouldn't be surprised to see anything...
I'm kicking myself for not getting back to neutral yesterday (when my GUT was telling me, at the .009 from Friday's close, to "call it a day" 5 minutes into trading)...
Oh well...
Chances are, IMO, we'll see a "stall" somewhere around here (because there are too many chart gaps both above and below)... Too many OVERBOUGHT & OVERSOLD wavelets on the 5 & 10 day charts to really create any divergences...
If it's TRUE that 110 SPY needs to get defended for Friday (and we're shy on Thursday)... Watch for the "surprise FED announcement" to come Thursday at 3:55PM to get it over the hump)...
my 2c
C,
ReplyDeleteI read the ZH post, well, skimmed it.
so....let me see if I have this right:
Buy gold?
hey it's winter- and FWIW- I liked the Tony Robbins writeup on Karen's link (first I've heard of it)but didn't watch the video-
ReplyDeleterisking a possible "fuckinggoogleit" link in response- but what the hell is PTJ?
from zh post:
ReplyDelete"Like a steam locomotive on a collision course with a bottomless canyon, globalist banks can slow or speed up the pace of our descent, but the final destination never changes."
- wtf?
ahab.. Paul Tudor Jones, for heaven's sake.. exercise your brain! laughing.
ReplyDeleteptj = paul tudor jones
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteStrip out all "buy gold" innuendos & references and you have something that you can explain to people...
Namely - that their "illusions" that politicians and bankers are working for their best interests is FALSE...
That's the biggest hurdle IMO...
because if you run around just saying "the sky is falling", people don't want to listen to you...
k -
ReplyDeletedibs! you owe me a coke
or...PTJ
ReplyDeletehttp://justfuckinggoogleit.com/
I thought maybe it was some kind of sandwich-
ReplyDeletealso- not to get all geo-political and all but-
former US envoy to the UN, John Bolton . . .if Israel wants to prevent Iran from acquiring a working nuclear plant, then a military strike must be launched against the Bushehr nuclear power facility within the next eight days.
I could definitely see Israel taking it out
Hello, you people are very bright. Want a job at Tudor?
ReplyDeleteAlthough that might lead you on a WGC (wild goose chase) in this instance
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteyour last post gave me the best laugh of the morning- even better than "hold" the tartare sauce-
gotta roll- all have a good day
@MCF
ReplyDelete2 new charts in thread
Here are the AH & premarket SPY charts that I'm looking at right now that sort of make your case for the ABC wave you're referring to...
The weird thing is... There was a VERY bizzare print at 9:14 this morning... (which could have)
- signaled the END of a wave c
- or, opened the door to a HIGHER print later this week (in the 1103-1110 area)
It's very hard to tell at the moment (but these PRINTS ARE NOT FAT FINGERS - they happen all the time and usually point to the correct conclusions as they conform to all fibs, LD's, ganns, etc.)...
Anyway - I'd be listening to MR TOPSTEP here... If they start chattering about 1104 - 1110 levels, I'd pay attention...
In the same way, if they say it's breaking down, I still wouldn't be surprised to see 1062 action...
We'll see... You decide...
I'd work for Tudor in a hot a second.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteI think that 1104 is extremely critical. Where you have your C?, Id think due to the structure before it that it looks more third wave than fifth of C, but I wouldn't say I'm confident to try to swing long on that count.
HYG is up. TLT is down.
ReplyDeleteThe TIGHTENER, baby.
@CV 10:10 -- very funny! Strangely, I had read that earlier this morning, and wondered to myself whether I'd be allowed to go home first and pack a bag or if the group would just send me direct to the funny farm if I tried to persuade them of that. There's a pretty big leap to be made from "what, 8% annual return is unrealistic?" to "we are trapped in an economic box designed by our world-dominance aspiring overlords." In a "sinners in the hands of an angry god" kind of way, I can see the overlords getting ready to give the box a nice shake.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteIf you ignore the PREMARKET prints...
The "C" looks to end at the tip of the diagonal from, what would become, a double price channel (around 109.50)...
First chart...
We'll see soon...
TIM SEYMOUR CONTRARIAN INDICATOR never fails !!!
ReplyDeleteWhat are you trying to say? Don't like my tan?
ReplyDeleteWe'd like to SEE LESS of you, Tim.
ReplyDeleteKnock, knock...
ReplyDeleteIt's me.
In that chart I have above, 109.64 is a 61.8% FIBO between the low print yesterday and the high print this morning on those SPY premarket charts...
ReplyDeleteFuckin jugular...
ReplyDelete@cold steel
ReplyDeleteFor reference:
COLD STEEL
- in April was 1220
- in May was 1173
- in June & August was 1130
Detect a pattern?
Now you're telling me about COLD STEEL at 1094?
Where did we open up 2010? 1116?
Cold steel appears to be a victim of global warming...
yes, was thinking perhaps that cold steel slept through the last few months with that post.
ReplyDeletealso, how much are we going to read into TLT today after a 2% up day.... the S&P is +1.5% right now with a TLT down less than half a percent, those sentiment extremes like we saw yesterday in the long bond rarely if ever indicate an immediate turn, we could provide 30+ examples in the last two years alone. Johnny is just finding out about bonds not to mention.
C,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you've watched his counts, Daneric had this move pegged quite well today. I'm still very skeptical of the impulse count off the April highs...just doesnt' seem to have the right look, but you would have said the same thing trying to count waves during the GD.
either way, AT's guideline or rule about lower degree wave 2's vs. the largers will come in handy again this week. it would have saved you a good amount of money a few weeks back when everyone was calling for the huge third wave down.
ReplyDeleteI didn't see it...
ReplyDeleteI'm still pissed off at myself because this is the 2nd time in the past 6 weeks that I was waiting for a "marginally" lower low and didn't get it...
July I was waiting for a sub 1000 print...
This time I was waiting for a 1065 print...
As Maxwell Smart would say...
"Missed it by that much"...
C,
ReplyDeleteyou need to get to the next level in how you place your fibo markets to time those entries better, beyond using the high and low prints:
get this book man:
http://www.amazon.com/Fibonacci-Analysis-Bloomberg-Professional-Constance/dp/1576602613
I've made some bang trades in the last two months after having read this book several times and trying to perfect the techniques.
fibo markers....
ReplyDeleteonce we can label second waves properly in impulse patterns the starting your fibo work at the bottom of the second wave rather than the price low extreme makes the charts do some wonderful things, that book will get you to the point where you can place the golden spiral on the chart properly.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I'll check it out...
ReplyDeleteI'm usually VERY close, but it's those last little wiggles (and mostly the TIME just before that the market appears patternless - that prevent me from pulling the trigger)...
The good thing is it usually leads to a NO TRADE...
ReplyDeleteWhich is better than jumping on something and getting stopped out...
Over time I've found it's better to be LATE than EARLY...
CAT is well over 70 today, time to go shopping.
ReplyDeleteStart looking at the low before the low, and the high before the high...
ReplyDeleteGee thanks anon...
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid i haven't reached that high level of sophistication...
Just tryin' ta keep ya honest....
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteYou know, SPY just ticked over 110...
I've been "barking" about SPY 110 calls since last Thursday (saying they might be "protected")...
Could it be that they're being OFFLOADED/UNWOUND here?
Lots of volume at the 109 & 110 strikes (perhaps "normal"), but just saying...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteIf I get up on tiptoe, I can just about see your Top again !!
@McF
ReplyDeleteHere's a different perspective ($SPX)
10 minute charts...
NEW CHART IN THREAD
thanks, CV.. now back to the regularly scripted melt up : )
ReplyDeleteKaren, Mr Market is looking at your Top in a funny way again..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteThe last chart would caution any "melt-up" enthusiasts... NOT SO FAST...
A melting top...
ReplyDeleteI like that.
excuse me while i roll my eyes:
ReplyDeleteMcCulley: CB independence is based on the proposition that the political process makes fiscal authorities prone to an inflationary bias.
C,
ReplyDeletere: 110, I'm still eyeing that 1104 area, we might be in some sort of triangle now wave iv before this last thrust higher we'll see what that last wave does, maybe just a smidge above 1104, perhaps we'll get some truncation on the fifth wave, and as discussed a few days ago it appeared the RSI on s&P needed to challenge the 50 line again which has marked trouble basically since the April high.
ok, maybe we are busting out here, though I often think triangles are breaking before they really are.
ReplyDeleteI love the ignorant comments that Barry can draw out with his cycle charts today. It makes me smile to know so many fools speculate in markets.
ReplyDeletecycles are nearly impossible tools in trying to place trades effectively for any length of time.
ReplyDeleteFrom KD today, very scary to me what's likely to go down with these pulbic sector pensions, going to cause huge problems:
ReplyDelete"The opinion acknowledges that the constitution creates a contractual agreement between the workers and the state's employee pension funds. But it concludes that neither the constitution nor the law say the state is a guarantor of that obligation.
Got that?
For those who don't want to read the whole article (you should), it basically means that:
Yes, The State has a contractual relationship with the pensioners.
No, the obligation does not extend beyond the pension fund's resources.
That is, The State cannot steal the pension money. But it is not obligated to stand behind a bankrupt pension fund that runs out of money and is unable to meet it's obligations.
What's better is that the PBGC doesn't provide any safety against such a condition either - PBGC options exist only for private pensions, not public ones."
anyone watching this Kyle Bass video?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/must-watch-kyle-bass-interview-there-no-way-i-can-be-long-stocks
or are all eyes on my top? laughing.. 1 pt to go : )
my silly limit order for faz is pennies away from getting tagged..
ReplyDeleteTopStep! (Nic, where are you?!)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S3-4zqa23g
"or are all eyes on my top? laughing.. 1 pt to go : ) "
ReplyDeleteWe are waiting for you to bust out...smiling.....
lol, Karen, David Faber's intro on the video:
ReplyDeletestocks are in rallly mode!
yeah, all the way back to where we were last Wednesday. give me a break. The trend changed in April in case anyone missed it.
Kyle Bass was one of the guys they profiled on 60 minutes as I recall about his bets against sub-prime, he did it legit, he's no JP.
ReplyDeleteHe's lost some weight, probably has a pesonal chef now.
I usually put bacon on my granola..what kind of an indicator is that?
ReplyDeletethis video is great, btw, Karen.
ReplyDeleteit must take a lot for him not to laugh at the questions.
you watched them both, didn't you Ben? I enjoyed them so much I am re-watching.. and I'm definitley <3ing Kyle Bass.. so handsome and well-spoken.
ReplyDeletedrv is absolutely killing me.. down nearly 8% today..
ReplyDeletejust finished up the second one, they were both very good, he did a nice job, handled himself well, that guy has a lot going for him.
ReplyDelete"You must be a real downer at dinner"
ReplyDeleteGIB QOTD.
Bears are Bad, Bulls are Good, facts are bad, hopes are good, and so on.
who knows if true, got link from a poster at Dan's
ReplyDeletehttp://debka.com/article/8973/
I've been waiting for this, very curious to see what happens to oil if this all starts getting hairy...will be a fantastic case study.
think all your old school indicators still work right now? doubt it, from Alberta at Dan's:
ReplyDelete"Unless something changes, this is going to the the twenty second 90% up day or down day (combined) since the April high. If I'm not mistaken the last cluster like this was only 8 occurrences (combined) and I believe it was 62 years ago. Quite seriously, this is indicative of the truly bizarre world that equities have become."
hat tip AlbertaRocks
just finished part 2 for second time.. what a perfect ending.. comparing oultook in 2008 to 2010: how many of your problems that you've kicked down the road have gotten better?
ReplyDeletei'm going to start drinking.. LOL..
i'm going thru bass withdrawals.. and didn't get fillet on second serving of faz : (
ReplyDeletetry the perch
ReplyDeletec'mon (wo)man!
Karen,
ReplyDeleteActually, I have a belly. So you might find me sub-prime.
From DR today:
ReplyDelete"The world, except for China, loves U.S. treasuries: net long-term flows into U.S. assets increased in June with foreigners picking up $33.3bln in Treasuries"
Karen,
ReplyDeleteIs that Chick-Fil-A ?
mrtopstep - $ES_F aug #expiration nears it will bcome harder to ID exact lvls Testin band of res 1097/99 then 1103 area obj abv that lots of stops
ReplyDeleteA lot of stops on your Top !!
ReplyDeleteEWI actually got today's bounce right in the STU, cant' wait to read Wed. now so we can hear about how they had it all along. if they have the next move correct freshly minted bulls are about to get chopped up.
ReplyDeletethis should pretty much cover where lots of stops will be placed on either side:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php
I-man got me into this site.
Well, looks like my call a few days ago we see 1062 before 1098 has failed... neither long or short ATM.
ReplyDeleteback to work... depressed :(
18
despite this likely being one of over a dozen 90% up or down days since the April high I promise old school pundits in their dailies are going to hype the 90% upside today as bullish, but none of these days were bullish since the April high with repsect to the larger trend. It's like they lose their memory each morning.
ReplyDeleteThis is just one of those "fun" days that Brian has been promising Johnny...
ReplyDeleteYou know "the fun"...
@CV,
ReplyDeletesure you saw this last night:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTCghpSRn4Y&feature=player_embedded
This rally may have legs:
ReplyDeletePOMO Days
Although I am sure Karen's legs are much prettier.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteYou're right. This is FUN.
Get me in that POT, Brian, C'mon, Man !!
Ben,
ReplyDeleteSmall volumes make for unusual outcomes.
This HFT and computer driven market moves are so different from even just a few years ago...how can any of us small fish swim in this pool?
@McF
ReplyDeleteIf you read DEBKA...
Someone is taking out Iran's reactors about once every 10 seconds...
If there had been an actual strike for every one of those links I've clicked on over the past months, every square inch of Iran's geographical territory, by now, would be cratered out due to a bomb strike...
Once the summer is over, we will be back to watching the action in Athens.
ReplyDeleteEuropean Debt Crisis to Resume
leftback,
ReplyDeleteWhere is that analysis for all of the other global stock markets? DAX started looking strong weeks ago, as just one of many examples.
but we'll just have fun measuring this, and we can go back and review this statement:
"What this means is that going forward, every single day that the Fed is monetizing bonds via 10:15-11:00am POMOs, it will be very foolhardy to short into the Fed's stock surging offensive. As a reminder, here are the immediately upcoming POMO days through the end of August: August 19, August 24, August 26, and September 1."
So, ZH has announced every single one of those days from 10;15 to 11 you can go long, it's that simple. Right.
and if anyone is wondering why this stuff is so popular, well just read the comments, it's another way to defer blame for your own shitty trades:
"I can just confess....I got screwed today. I wondered WTF happened 10.37 EST.
Now, I at least believe I know"
CV,
ReplyDeletehence my qualifier that it might not be true, that site sort of pushes the envelope on reality. Even still, I believe war is coming to that area quickly, I have no basis for this, just a hunch.
"how can any of us small fish swim in this pool?"
ReplyDeleteBruce,
who said you had to get in the pool? You haven't bought into the idea that Fed has forced you into the market have you? We just watched a video of someone that made billions on the sub-prime debacle saying there is absolutely no reason to be in stocks right now.
Not a big deal, Ben, just pointing out liquidity injections that have to go somewhere.
ReplyDeleteThe equity rally was telegraphed by moves in credit IMO, and it was the Fed's intent to support non-Treasury credit instruments.
We will be back to shorting after Labor Day, I think.
No-one should be in the pool without:
ReplyDeletea) knowing where the exit is
b) a life preserver
c) a lamp for when the squid releases ink
d) a knife for shark attacks
look how the Fed is ramping Netflix, crucial to the recovery.
ReplyDelete"The equity rally was telegraphed by moves in credit IMO"
ReplyDeletenow THAT I can live with!
funny too how on these POMO days the Fed's paint Elliott waves, if you can't see the waves the last few days what are you looking at, it's about as clear as they get.
ReplyDeleteEven still, I believe war is coming to that area quickly, I have no basis for this, just a hunch.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Persian_Wars
---
Gee, da ya think? I mean "war" with the Persians...
Note: I realize that the "Persian Empire" back then was located in what is largely today's Turkey...
But the point is the same... Persians are Persians... They, as everyone else, have WARRED throughout history...
It makes me laugh the naive nature of Americans (or OTHERS) who think war is avoidable...
Every time I see one of those "War Is Not The Answer" bumper stickers on cars, I laugh my ass off...
Once again, the difference between naive hope and reality...
PIMCO Gross: Without gov’t guarantees, mortgage rates would be hundreds of basis points higher, resulting in a moribund housing market for years.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteWhy doesn't he just say...
"People - your lives will be ***tty if you don't all just gel to the idea that you want your government to give guarantees such as this, and we can then own the bonds on them and mint ourselves money in the process at no risk..."
What's a matter with you people... Don't you know it's my God given right to be set up as a king?
"Without gov’t guarantees, mortgage rates would be hundreds of basis points higher, resulting in a moribund housing market for years."
ReplyDeleteA free housing market at higher mortgage rates would result in a raft of resets, an avalanche of foreclosures and carnage on a scale that few of us have witnessed. This would also mean The End of the Banks as We Know Them. Of course, LB thinks this would be absolutely marvelous...
Not going to happen. Extend and Pretend.
Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto
I looked closely at your Top today, Karen. It was delightful.
ReplyDeleteBut I am not a barbarian, so I backed away, now admiring you from a respectful distance. I will hold the memory of your delightful Top in my mind tomorrow as we mull the commodity and FX market, as we do on Wednesdays. But I am lying in wait.
On Thursday we have more economic data. You may awake to find that I have conquered your Top in the middle of the night, while you slept, and that I am all over your Top for the rest of the day, until by the close you are revealed, Topless, fully exposed once again.
a rather tedious but necessary market day I suppose. could have been worse.. the highlight was stumbling upon two video clips with flash sightings of LB in south america on youtube, LOL.
ReplyDeleteI'm back. Had errands to run. I see the bulls couldn't hold the highs. But AUDJPY and EURJPY were pushing higher in the AH. Plus the 2, 5, 10 and 30yr USTs were getting sold in the AH. Figured today would be up.
ReplyDeleteLB in South America?
ReplyDeletemore wisdom from PIMCO, but, warning! hold your nose.
ReplyDeleteMcCulley: When the economy suffers from Post Bubble Disorder, and fat-tail risk of deflation, conventional monetary policy is not enough.
The Bond Report 8.17.10
ReplyDeleteToday was a mild risk-on day in credit. HY rallied early at the expense of IG and Ts, but that move moderated in the last hour. Overall spreads were tighter, especially at the long end.
Corpies: LQD -0.16%; AGG -0.12%; JNK 0.13%; HYG 0.38%;
Govies: TLT -0.57%; IEI -0.18%; TIP -0.22%
We did nothing. We have a modest hedge (higher long end yields) and we see today's trade (spread tightening) continuing for some time against the backdrop of a strong bond market and equity chop.
sorry to mention this but the horror is never ending and seemingly escalating: BreakingNews
ReplyDelete8 killed, 44 wounded after bomb attached to fuel truck blows up in a Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad, police say - AP http://bit.ly/bsHMuh
ah, nice graphic here, another slap in the face for everyone crying about how unprecedented everything is because the many extrapolate every current trend into the future forever:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/history-of-world-gdp/
It isn't Ward and June Cleaver in the world any more, Karen, and Eddie Haskell has grown up and gone of to run the Treasury.
ReplyDeleteAnd, LB...just keep your attention focused on the TOP of Karen's top...no wandering...
PIMCO Gross: Without positive fiscal stimulus in the next six months, unemployment could approach double digits and stay there.
ReplyDeleteI think, guys, that if I were to "Pull a Rabbit Out of My Hat, Rock" as Bullwinkle once stated, my off the wall prediction for the election:
ReplyDeleteOnce the election is over and congress is a lame duck, with Obama essentially also a lame duck at this point, I wouldn't be surprised that they pass a VAT tax and Obama signs it before the new congress is seated.
..Would be interesting, wouldn't it?
What are all these comments from Bill Gross??? I gotta go back and read all these a few times. These guys never talk so much unless they want something.
ReplyDeleteMethinks it may have something to do with the several billion they have recently invested into the new PIMCO equity funds...the last go round in stocks for these guys didn't go so well, I doubt he wants to lose twice.
Bruce, new taxes are way out in the future and the Bush tax cuts may not even be allowed to expire in full.
ReplyDeleteThe Krugman argument that we have to spend our way out of this is now in the vanguard of economic policy in DC.
Austerity next year along the lines of the UK policy would lead to a return to steep deflation and a 1937-type scenario.
I am not taking any sides about what should be done.
Ben, yes they want something! to be back-stopped.. it all has to do with the FRE and FNM meeting taking place.. they are talking their book to any media outlet that will give them air time.. and guess what? twitter is free! but, they've got some commentary on bloomberg today as well..
ReplyDeleteB in T @ 4:54
ReplyDeleteZero percent probability of that occurring this year.
However, the longer we continue the march towards Obama's version of utopia, the more likely a VAT tax becomes.
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