OK - So lets pause and reflect here for a second...
- On July 30-Aug 1st we had the "Cardinal Cross"
- On August 11th*/12th we have a confirmed "Hindenberg Omen" (more later)
- Today is Friday the 13th
Are we, like, seriously screwed or what?
First, the Hindenburg...(read up because even though I might be stupid, I'm not THAT stupid as to make comical annotations on harbingers of doom)... At least I give them a wide berth...
| Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal | # of Signals In Cluster | DJIA Subsequent % Decline | Time Until Decline Bottomed |
| 9/21/2005 | 5 | ? | ? |
| 4/13/2004 (1) | 5 | 5.4% | 30 days |
| 6/20/2002 | 5 | 15.8% | 30 days |
| 23.9% | 112 days | ||
| 6/20/2001 | 2 | 25.5% | 93 days |
| 3/12/2001 | 4 | 11.4% | 11 days |
| 9/15/2000 | 9 | 12.4% | 33 days |
| 7/26/2000 | 3 | 9.0% | 83 days |
| 1/24/2000 | 6 | 34.2% | 44 days |
| 6/15/1999 | 2 | 6.7% | 122 days |
| 12/22/1998 (2) | 2 | 0.2% | 1 day |
| 7/21/1998 (3) | 1 | 19.7% | 41 days |
| 12/11/1997 | 11 | 5.8% | 32 days |
| 6/12/1996 | 3 | 8.8% | 34 days |
| 10/09/1995 | 6 | 1.7% | 1 day |
| 9/19/1994 | 7 | 8.2% | 65 days |
| 1/25/1994 | 14 | 9.6% | 69 days |
| 11/03/1993 | 3 | 2.1% | 2 days |
| 12/02/1991 | 9 | 3.5% | 7 days |
| 6/27/1990 | 17 | 16.3% | 91 days |
| 11/01/1989 | 36 | 5.0% | 91 days |
| 10/11/1989 | 2 | 10.0% | 5 days |
| 9/14/1987 | 5 | 38.2% | 36 days |
| 7/14/1986 | 9 | 3.6% | 21 days |
Whether you're superstitious or not... Here's what ACTUALLY happens when you CROSS a CARDINAL
August 10, 2010 - Reds vs. Cardinals
As for Friday the 13th?
Look - Jason is handy with the POLEAXE too...
I don't know people, do what you want... Go long, Go short... Go TO SLEEP...
OK... I'll cut the crap and get to the real anthology of drama...
Oh... Let's just get it all over with at once, shall we?
With a little music to go along with it...
Way to go Stevie... Way to scare the hell out of all the young SESAME STREET viewers - lol
Howdy punters,back from another week of travelling (for work unfortulately) in South Australia (the home of Barossa, McLarenVale, Claire Valley for any wine drinkers, though I wasn't able to sample those delights) and now catching up on the blog.
ReplyDeleteNow, DL and McFlipflop you blokes are both totally cool and have no business ever getting into a squabble with each other. Maybe its the age gap thing (I'm prolly somewhere in between age-wise), anyway very glad its all working out amicably there.
Bertie
Yes, shiraz-impaired again, as you've can probably guess. Speaking of matters age-related, I cant help reflecting on the LB swagger... which may well be the soul of the blog, certainly the spice anyway, and I wonder which age group the uncannily-correct-on-bonds LB falls into. I mean, said swagger might suggests late 20's, but yesterday LB talked wistfully about his 30s. Is the persona we know and love merely an alter-ego offered for the enjoyment of the online world?
ReplyDeleteBertie
squabbles?
ReplyDeleteI live for squabbles.
I'm not a politician, where I expect everyone to live in a perpetual state of a agreement.
Often I disagree to see if my own view can be challenged by someone, something I find healthy.
per wiki - hindenburg omen on 8/12, first since market lows of 2009. another nearly occurred on 8/11, failing only in that 67 stocks hit new lows, rather than the required 69.
ReplyDeletebertie -
ReplyDeletebelieve lb self-admittedly at the 50 bar
not to mention outside the inflation/deflation debate it would seem I have a lot in common with DL
ReplyDeleteit's not squabbling (wonderful sound to that, birds on a roost) per se but the mode thereof (birds on a roost vs. cock fights) that can be off-putting at times
ReplyDelete@72bat
ReplyDeletedetails...details...
C'Mon man... Don't ruin a good SCAREFEST! :-)
I gotta say...
ReplyDeleteThe RAVENS first team offense looked sharp last night...
The rest of the game was pretty much of a joke...
Are you an early riser 72bat or another foreigner?
ReplyDeleteI don't need to ask about McF, he doesn't sleep.
Bertie
Flacco...
ReplyDelete120 yards & a TD in one quarter...
Extrapolate that over a game and those are some pretty big numbers...
bertie,
ReplyDeleteyou are in India?
@McF
ReplyDeletebertie is DOWN UNDER
Young Bertie is a resident, not of india, but another english colonial outpost that is much further south.
ReplyDeleteB.
oh ok, why did I think India
ReplyDeletewonder if markets end up a little quiet today....my eyes are glued to Bucky.
ReplyDeletebertie -
ReplyDeletejust another robotron on first shift at the salt mine, sometimes feelin' like a foreigner here in the hinterlands of ohio
right, cv, i'll get with the program. always up for a good frisson
@McF
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for a "hammer bottom" type daily candle...
I seriously think we'll open a little on the weak side... Get some kind of sell off down near 1070, or in the 1060's...
Then come back by the close...
Just a hunch...
@72bat
ReplyDeleteI'm good at this on ROCK BAND... Go figure...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5zFsy9VIdM
good morning !! love the post and thread.. thinking ben needs a strong cup of coffee, tho, if he didn't realize Bertie was in Oz, laughing..
ReplyDeleteoperating with a wine headache extraordinaire and no coffee yet.. bad wine at party! I should have opened the bottle I brot.. oh well, at least i'm not hungover..
@karen
ReplyDeleteEat a few cucumber slices before going to bed if you overdo it with the wine...
Well that talking heads clip was cool, David Byrne was pretty handsome in his day. Actually, so was "Norman Bates" from that 72bat's clip. Have no idea what either of those clips had to do with anything... but not about to re-read from the top to get the context ha. Bertie
ReplyDeletecv -
ReplyDeletenow tina weymouth gives me a frisson fer sure
never heard of that cucumber thing.. anyway, longtime, local restaurant and catering business owner was at the party and said business had never ever been as bad as it is now.. i had not been aware that one big and popular spot had closed down.
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt that there will be an attempt, this morning, to try and get back up over that 1088-1090 area that some were looking at yesterday (and get a "higher high" candle going)...
ReplyDeleteBut if it keeps failing, bulls are going to give up here until this find a better technical bottom...
@karen
ReplyDeletethe cucumber thing works pretty well...
@karen
ReplyDeleteDidn't you just say yesterday that we were in NO MAN'S LAND?
I agree...
Theerfore, no ABOVE 1088 velocity? This market is going to seek lower...
my 2c
LB is 51, Bertie, but still maintains his youthful swagger, having added great wisdom and maturity, all in a tongue-in-cheek and slightly ironic manner, may I add, lest LB be taken too seriously.
ReplyDeleteTrying to imagine Karen at a party in Southern Cal, a little flirtatious perhaps after a glass or two of wine.... too hot, too hot..!!!
CV has opened the floodgates for a number of cucumber jokes.
@LB
ReplyDeleteIt took YOU to bring that fact to the surface :-)
So let's see...
ReplyDeleteLB is 51... karen is 51...
Cv will be 51 next year...
Maybe this blog should be called "AREA 51"
CV @ 9:45, i'm so flattered you read one of my posts! LOL.. and remember what I said about 1088-1090.. it's the new top until we find a technical bottom, as you say.. at least that is the scenario i'm working on.
ReplyDeleteCAGC has been all over the map in the first 20 min! would love to try a trade but can't function until i've got some coffee in me.
Retail not ripping today.. XRT down as it should be in a real world..
slices of cucumber. norman bates. don't go there, lb
ReplyDeleteWhere's Bruce been?
ReplyDeleteis he on vacation?
ReplyDeleteLB.. he said "slices of cucumber"
ReplyDeleteand, just for the record not to mention my vanity, i'm a younger 51 than LB
a more mature as well as younger 51, karen
ReplyDeleteOf course, Karen. You could easily be mistaken for 31.
ReplyDeleteBTW, 1090 nothing, the KT is the only TOP that counts.
Bonds are up again today, and corporates are along for the ride.
"a more mature as well as younger 51, karen"
ReplyDeletebut it's a low bar, right, bat?
Yeah, where's the Tennesseean?
ReplyDelete(Nice post CV, it is looking rather dark out there for risk...)
michigan sentiment only slightly LTE @ 69.6
ReplyDeletenothing to see here folks, move along.
gld flat and gdx down.. interesting after yesterday!
ReplyDeletemrtopstep - STPS above 1085 area ystrdy hi 1084.80
just remembered to pull up twitter..
if you say so lb ;^)
ReplyDeleteI'm 3 X 18 in 2 months, but much less educated than most on this board :(
ReplyDeleteYesterday range bound between 1080-1086.88 (.382 1080-1098). Check the 1min chart... is true. Probably much of the same today.
Any takers we see 1062 next week before we see 1098?
18
Blackstone in deal to take power-plant operator Dynegy private, paying 62% premium
ReplyDelete08/13/2010 08:29:21 AM
I have an extreme hatred for BX..
Alot of parallels between a market frenzy (either direction) and that Reds/Cards clip...
ReplyDeleteI'm sure McF would agree.
"OMG, it's so VOLATILE, BRIAN.... can I buy Treasuries?"
ReplyDelete"Sure, we can get you in there, JOHNNY.
TAWNY can fix you up..."
@18
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking if they'd named "STUDIO 54"... "STUDIO 3 x 18", it wouldn't have had the same effect...
LB is off for the morning. You can all insult me in the afternoon. Or indeed, the morning....
ReplyDeleteWater off a duck's back, as they say.
I mean... "STUDIO 3 x 18"...
ReplyDeleteThey might have all ended up dancing in LB's flat...
CV, you crack me up, love the personality, ALL of them... LOL
ReplyDelete18
@I-Man
ReplyDelete"Alot of parallels between a market frenzy (either direction) and that Reds/Cards clip..."
Not sure...
But LB avoided a RED CARD (barely), with the cucumber tease... :-)
thinkin' on consumer sentiment..., can't recall the outfit that publishes an indicator based on crunching current/real-time retail data. anyone know which one i'm thinking of?
ReplyDeletewondering what it's saying about back-to-school sales.
Karen was right about no mans land :)
ReplyDeleteSometimes a cucumber is just a cigar.
ReplyDeleteI 10:02, yep, when I watched it this morning that's all I thought, how's this relate to social mood....
ReplyDeletewine headaches's....ugh, I can't think of a worse kind, maybe those tension types you get in your neck.
anyway, I'm looking to short this 1085 witha tight leash, I think perhaps one more wave down before the stronger move up.
paper trading here, put shorts on now just above 1086 according to "18" fibs.
ReplyDelete18
@LB (1010)
ReplyDeleteYou're gonna go far...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDpc04r_QM
@72
ReplyDeleteI don't know which calc. you are talking about but they had some retail ANALysts on CNBC yesterday, one said b2school looked soft, the other said strong.
So there you go.
also, re the cards/reds clip, I had no idea how big Scott Rolen was.
ReplyDelete...and to think TEA PARTIERS are all RACISTS...
ReplyDeleteHarry Reid: "I don't know how anyone of Hispanic heritage could be a Republican."
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/harry-reid-i-dont-know-how-anyone-hispanic-heritage-could-be-republican
Way to tell the hispanics how they should be thinking Harry...
ReplyDelete"Reid supports the Obama administration's lawsuit against Arizona over its immigration law, but 63 percent of Nevada voters oppose the lawsuit, according to a Rasmussen poll."
ReplyDelete...way to serve your constituents Harry
Forgot to mention.. there were two massage girls at the party.. with those special chairs you sit forward in with a face rest so they can work on your neck and back.. it was an amazing treat..
ReplyDeleteBen, what in the heck is that avatar.. i'm afraid to click on it.
@karen
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the "primordial ooze" to me (bens avatar)
got it. scroll down for
ReplyDeleteconsumer metrics institute daily growth index vs. bea's quarterly gdp
Still paper trading, I'd cover half here with tight stops on the rest.
ReplyDelete18
bookmarked that site.. thanks bat.
ReplyDeletespeaking of hispanics.. i forget who it was that greeted me last night with "You look like a Mexican!" I was a bit taken aback because I know a lot of very light skinned Mexicans.. and I thot, what an odd comment, laughing.
i'm seeing it as a bit of lace edging on a pale blue fabric..
ReplyDelete30yr under 3.90%, 10yr about to fall back under 2.70%, 5yr under 1.50%, EURJPY down, AUDJPY up (probably will be down soon enough), gold flat, dollar flat, BKX & XLF up (bastids). Something's about to give...
ReplyDeleteJCG down another .75 today.. very interesting.. an institutional favorite. umm, have we ever entertained the notion of "distribution" in this chat room?
ReplyDeleteI missed last night's wrap! was it a good time?
ReplyDeleteYou know... speaking of the HINDENBURG OMEN...
ReplyDeleteone of the criteria is that "the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising."...
Now, I know this isn't the same thing... But I just checked the 10 week MA on SPX... As expected, it it rising too, but you know what the number is as we speak?
1086 - The number we can't seem to get anything going above since yesterday...
Just saying...
@karen
ReplyDeleteCV was watching football last night
Good work 18...
ReplyDeleteThis market hasnt been kind to "hangers on"...
I have flattened my best trades this week way before I normally would. Its saved me leaving alot of money on the table.
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete#bonds mak new intra day hi=17 mo hi - $ES_F #traders watchin 1079.20 sttl next lvl belo 1076 area formin good res 1085 area
mrtopstep
that = growin stops abov 1085 = big target = NOBODY RIDES RISK FREE
I don't see the...
ReplyDelete"NEGATE HINDENBURG OMEN" radio button on Bernocchio's desktop...
http://mortgagenewsclips.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/ben1.png
"Ben, what in the heck is that avatar.. i'm afraid to click on it."
ReplyDeleteThat's the explosion on the sun Aug 1.
ok, I'm going to close the short from 1085. it's 3 up 3 down, wait for another bounce and re-load.
ReplyDelete@ I-Man
ReplyDeleteThx, I love daytrading! but don't really have the time to do it. More of a swing trader these days. Today I'm telecommuting so doing work and market together... LOL
Still holding tons of SDS from last week when I didn't think SPX would ever get to 1134. Going to sell most today just to clear the books. Probably before lunch when we might go below 1080.
18
new 52 week low in TBT today !!
ReplyDelete2.5% yields coming up !! All you have to do is look at a 4 year weekly chart of the spx to see why no sane person puts their money in the market : )
peep this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201008130735/NEWS/100813003
Ben.. that is so wild.. he earns $300k! i am assuming he has health insurance so this isn't one of those instances of crushing medical costs...
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteBWAHAHAHAHA. Priceless.
who knows, but with an income of $300k per year, there is just no excuse. Philly is not the most expensive city around by a long shot, and look at his job!!!
ReplyDeletezerohedge - GM IPO delayed
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/2010/08/12/poll-do-taxpayers-really-want-gm-ipo-shares/
ReplyDeletelol, who's gonna buy that IPO?
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeletechop shop #futures $ES_F #traders lacking conviction=no fllow thru in slowin mrkts=keading for exits but temp 93 plus in chicaaaggo
@I
ReplyDeleteI hear ya. Very hard to trade this sideways action. Almost sold SDS a few minutes ago when SPX price went through one of my trend lines... but held tight. Going to sell within 15 min or so even if we don't breach 1080.
18
ben.. look at that poll.. 45% said they wanted in the GM IPO.. color me bewildered.
ReplyDeletezerohedge - Eddington Fund of Funds shuts down
ReplyDeleteWasn't someone saying that if the GM IPO doesn't happen then that's a signal all is not well in marketland.
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I saw it, herding at its finest, you know there are a bunch of people that think they can "make a killing on it" but really, we are all technically owners already,....so double down? Oh, and the small group that is undecided, they'll but after the IPO goes up 30% the first few days, only to watch it tank afterward.
I'll let someone else have my shares.
it would seem this years IPO's already reveal as much about the market Ra, or at minimum about Animal Spirits. EWI has touched on this recently. IPO's have been basically a bust this year,
ReplyDeleteExhibit 1.618
TSLA.
i don't know why topstep linked to this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703723504575425773401964114.html?mod#articleTabs%3Darticle
and a little insanity for ya:
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/makemytrip-mmyt-why-can-barely.html
@McF (11:02)
ReplyDeleteLOL...
I guess Obama didn't pay for his mortgage...
Maybe he picked up the gas bill tho...
Could you do a follow up story?
dollar looking a little stronger as we go along here.
ReplyDeleteAR, are in insinuating all is not well in marketland?? That's heresy!
ReplyDelete#TOP NOTCH concern bulls willingness 2 protect 1076 area tday a breach w/momentum cud trigger up to 10 handles lower w/ minor sup 7250-7050
ReplyDeletealaidi - HAWKISH HOENIG: no evidence deflation is most serious threat; still against too low rates for too long $$
There we go :)
ReplyDelete18
@McF
ReplyDeleteThere is a gentleman who takes my class that said he saw a TESLA in the parking lot of the gym this week and was talking to the owner...
I told him I had my skepticism about the whole ELECTRIC car thing (mostly because of the POWER INFRASTRUCTURE needed to make something like this viable)...
I gave him all the statistics that I'd published here on this blog a few weeks ago (about the gigawatts, transmission, etc.)...
In the end, he didn't seem very pleased with my REALISTIC assessment of the situation...
Oh well...
yeah man, I'll keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteThere is this big debate going on in Philly right now about this thing called DROP:
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local-beat/Time-to-Drop-DROP-says-Nutter-99931704.html
City Council is in recess however until September, and in the meantime, I think something like >500 workers have rushed to sign up for drop since Nutter made these comments, prior to these comments I believe some 20 people had signed up. So while city council is on vaca the bills pile up bigger and bigger.
Ed Rendell, who as I'm to understand singed DROP into law, was questioned on the news about it two nights ago, his response:
"I don't know enough about it to make a comment"
classic.
@karen (11:32)
ReplyDeleteGreat... let's get it over with already!
"I don't know enough about it to make a comment"
ReplyDelete"We've got to pass this bill so that we can see what's in it"
"no evidence deflation is most serious threat"
ReplyDeletewhere is the first part of that quote?
you know, the part that reads:
If you read the MSM....there is no evidence deflation is the most serious threat.
Kansas City Fed's Hoenig: Current Fed monetary policy a 'dangerous gamble'
ReplyDelete08/13/2010 11:33:54 AM
and other shocking news:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=al6359ElixDE
C,
ReplyDeleteI'm not a car junkie or anything, I think the Tesla cars look call, but I think Lambo's look cool as well. I wouldn't buy either one of them and more importantly most people can't afford them even if they wanted to.
One of my clients had his car stolen in Va. yesterday. That's always fun.
maybe we see that 106 in short order here? I dont' know, I'm flat right now. Been a decent day so far.
ReplyDeletecars look "cool" I meant.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThe DeLorean "looked" cool when it first came out...
So did bell bottom jeans, hip huggers, afros, fat ties, and many other things...
@McF
ReplyDeleteI drive the Honda when traveling, drive the Expedition when home. Not into this "hey, look at me in my XXX". Think most peeps are like me. They drive what they have out of necessity.
18
I hope the TESLA has a trap door in the bottom so that you can move it along like Fred Flintstone would when we start to have rolling "brown outs" because our electricity grid is crumbling...
ReplyDeleteOr... if you wanted to "charge it up" with a couple of solar panels on your roof...
ReplyDeleteAt least it might get you out of your driveway...
(or, crashed into your stone wall - as might be the case with karen)... :-)
but was it a DeLorean with a flux capacitor?
ReplyDeleteMy last word to people who think electric cars (en masse) are a solution for the future... At least, in terms of how we think we use cars today...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
like I've said before, I'm holding out for jet packs.
ReplyDeleteOr... CV's favorite BUGS BUNNY...
ReplyDelete"What a TA RA RA GOON DE AY"
after receiving this tweet, fundmyfund -$$ ALERT. Bob Doll is cautiously bullish and advises to buy stocks in high quality firms, I found this article from June 8 with 106 comments!
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748703561604575282893796461472.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
@ cv
ReplyDeletere "bell bottom jeans, hip huggers, afros"
check foto in ur email @yahoo.com
talk about COOL!
Spreads are wider at the long end, TLT leading.
ReplyDeleteSpreads are tighter at the short end, IEI lagging.
Credit markets actually look very healthy today.
Unless your name is Papandreou....
ReplyDeleteJNJ got off a 2.95% 10-year recently. TWO POINT NINE FIVE.
ReplyDeleteOne day we'll look back and laugh...
Seriously, someone made a big bet on low inflation there.
Bob Doll?
ReplyDeletelol
another soft patch embracer
@karen
ReplyDelete"cautiously bullish"
I love these terms people use to hedge themselves...
Is that anything like "pleasantly plump"?
if crude breaks 75, i will be very very pleased.
ReplyDeleteCrude at 75, lots of FX pairs at support, we could see some lunchtime short covering now
ReplyDeletewell, if you are bored.. read the comments from that WSJ article..
ReplyDeleteLB there are guys on twitter laughing at MS getting killed on their 2s10 trade a la meriwether
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm just a jerk...
ReplyDeleteBut at least I say what on my mind... At least I'm not UNORIGINAL...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymsHLkB8u3s
Obama's desktop..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trichet/Dear%20Leader.jpg
MS seems to have made some really awful calls this year. They need a blythe masters to get things together over there.
ReplyDeleteK.,
ReplyDeleteI am short the long end again and long risk credit.
HYG + TBT. LB calls this "the spread tightener".
3.88% was the low yield for 30y on flash crash.
Bad Calls?
ReplyDeleteNah. We were just a tad early.
Nic
ReplyDeleteLB may have stirred that pot. A lot of people read Macro Man....
I'm not a forex trader, but KD has a chart up in the last little while showing a huge drop in the euro this morning...any news I haven't found?
ReplyDeleteI post macroman on twitter every day, trying to get commentary up again ... you are right, a lot more read than comment
ReplyDeletelb.. 52 - Week Range of $tyx 38.26 - 48.58 (7/1/10 - 4/7/10)
ReplyDeletetoday's low 38.79.. so i don't get your point about flash crash.. this is no dble bottom.
@karen
ReplyDeleteHa!... I thought this was obama's desktop...
http://coolcanucks.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/mylittlepony.jpg
EUR drop was despite better than expected 2Q GDP but Italian bond auction and chat about liquidity issues in EUR.
ReplyDelete"any news I haven't found?"
ReplyDeleteEuro bulls at the lows this spring = 5%
Euro bulls at the recent highs = 86%
Dollar bulls near the recent highs = 98%
Dollar bulls at the recent lows = 6%
mooooooooooooo!
McFearless @ 9:05
ReplyDeleteI don’t know if that’s true or not.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A new avatar, I see. No longer “bearish”…?
http://247wallst.com/2010/08/13/ambac-vs-bankruptcy-days-looking-numbered-abk/
ReplyDeleteCV! LOL.. how would you even know about those psychedelic ponies? shaking my head.
ReplyDeleteLB @ 12:07.. i remember you posting about GS vs MS forecasts.. it was very funny.
ReplyDeleteMcF -- I saw those stats from EWI too...I never know if I should believe them.
ReplyDeletei have an uup target of 24.20 today.. i just want to get there and take some money off the table.. it might even shut me up for a bit.
ReplyDelete@Nic
ReplyDeleteThose "liquidity" problem ought to come to the surface PRONTISSIMO (as September draws nigh)...
Europe is still on complete holiday as we speak...
AUGUST 15th is the traditional "giornata della festa"...
Things should get put on hold until after that (unless some "Soros" type wants to make a move to force the issue)...
"A new avatar, I see. No longer “bearish”…?
ReplyDeleteSolar Tsunami = super bear
though I will bet the way the waves dictate
"I'll ride the wave where it takes me"
Eddie Vedder
oracle vs goog - http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aR6Dzym2KJEY
ReplyDeleteDL,
ReplyDeleteI guess my comment at 9:05 was maybe more along political lines, I agree with many (most) of the comments you make about the govt, such as the one you left at TBP yesterday about states authority.
Outside of that though, I pretty much ignore everything you say. :)
j/k!
@karen
ReplyDelete"CV! LOL.. how would you even know about those psychedelic ponies? shaking my head."
I don't know...
Maybe I'm a closet JACKWAGON...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFgiUm4lQig
@karen
ReplyDeleteI'll think about it deeply over the weekend...
And if, come Monday, this blog is entitled
JACKWAGON CAPITAL... you'll know...
Long jalapeno bagels...
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteNow THAT sounds good...
http://www.cdkitchen.com/recipes/recs/270/Jalapeno_Bagels44860.shtml
Be careful though, rubbing your eyes after touching any jalos...
ReplyDelete@cv....or, according to my hubby, be careful using the restroom post hot pepper dicing. Ha!
ReplyDeleteWouldnt want to get red eyed...
ReplyDeleteAt least not this early.
AAPL $250...
ReplyDeletecome on DL... aren't you buying?
Didn't some tout put a $400 price target on it the other day?
Man, we are so close I can taste it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjJ86bKIUA8&playnext=1&videos=NuEgx8YciZQ
WE ARE!
@jennifer
ReplyDeleteVERY GOOD TIP! :-)
A little history behind that...
CV, as a freshman in high school, made the varsity football, baseball, & track squads...
For football... The freshman HAZE punishment for such was having had BEN GAY ointment put in my jockstrap...
For baseball... The freshman haze punishment was being grabbed from the showers and tossed NAKED into the school hallways...
Track wasn't so bad because you have to EARN a varsity letter on points (rather than making the squad on the coaches election)...
Lesson? If you're a freshman... SUCK at your athletic skills and pay your dues on the jayvee squad for a year...
lol
this is something that needs more attention: America's 100 largest corporate pension plans were underfunded by $217 billion at the end of 2008.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/scary-facts-about-the-coming-pension-crisis-2010-8#americas-100-largest-corporate-pension-plans-were-underfunded-by-217-billion-at-the-end-of-2008-1
our school was partial to icee hot
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteIt was actually this stuff called "HEAT" that they used...
http://www.obsessedwithfilm.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/deep_heat.jpg
But since it's not used so much anymore, I explained it with the BEN GAY reference...
lol C, Deep Heat, so many things could be said here.
ReplyDeletei posted about the luxury condos in Manhattan getting fha financing earlier.. guess it irked santelli, too!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/video-rick-santelli-goes-off-and-luxury.html
@McF
ReplyDeleteI "jacked" about football season starting too...
I said before... I was watching the RAVENS last night...
The first team offense looked good...
Front 7 on the D is good too, but the Ravens have a glaring weakness at the CB position...
Man I wish they could get Darelle Revis... It would be a guaranteed SUPER BOWL if they could...
Which is EXACTLY why the Jets wouldn't let him go...
trader mark has good performance. He's got MELI in his account, I traded that last year. Nice stock to have if you are on the right side of the trend.
ReplyDeleteBaltimore's offense is CRAZY now...
ReplyDeleteThey went from being one of the worst offenses in the past decade, to now having...
- Flacco
- Anquan Boldin
- Donte Stallworth (to stretch the field)
- Derrick Mason
- Ray Rice/Willis McGahee/& LeRon McClain out of the backfield
- This "new guy" DIXON at TE (who is a beast)
And the largest O-LINE in the NFL...
They'll lose some games on bad "match-ups" this year... But they'll make the playoffs, and you NEVER want to face the Ravens in the playoffs... You're not even safe at home...
That clip has been going around the chicago crowd like wildfire...
ReplyDeleteIts so great to hear the pit cheer!
yeah I'd expect the Ravens to be solid this year. AFC is going to be a lot of fun to watch, I'm hoping the Raiders can get close to .500.
ReplyDeleteCV @ 12:47
ReplyDeleteA couple of weeks ago, I floated the idea of a paired trade: long GOOG/short AAPL.
12 month holding period
I love a good Rick rant and he is right on target here.
ReplyDeleteAh yes, DEEP HEAT, that is a universal prank. Cricketers use a device to protect the CROWN JEWELS and we used to occasionally introduce a foreign substance prior to usage. LB also fond of shaving foam inside the batting gloves and other forms of amusement.
I think the Raiders have a shot at .500
ReplyDeleteHell - goat blood drinking AL DAVIS thinks they can make the Superbowl - lol
"Just WIN Baby"
Anyway - thing is that the AFC west doesn't have a tough schedule this year, so YES, they have a chance at .500
Then, understand that 9-7 may win you a division this year out there...
Oughta be interesting...
my ears are still ringing from that shout fest..
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteSo tell me...
Shaving FOAM? Gloves?
Did somebody mess up and put the shaving foam on the OUTSIDE of Robert Green's gloves back in June?
:-)
big yelling festival there
ReplyDelete@DL (1:17)
ReplyDeleteI didn't comment on that before... But my feelings are that that trade is well calculated...
mrtopstep - $ES_F interesting article Hindenburg Omen on BBberg 8:28CT suggest slump in #stocks by Alexis Xydias anyone finds link share w/our friends
ReplyDeleteIf the Raiders win the division...party at my house.
ReplyDeleteDearest K.,
ReplyDeleteI think 3.88% was the closing low on flash crash day, but you're right it was 3.828 for one nanosecond.
Anyway, I need to hedge my rate risk, minimal though it may be, now that I am loaded in the higher yield end of the fixed income universe.
I still think Monday sees a big push into risk, in credit at least, and looking at HYG and JNK, a few people are already front running it. LB was already on board yesterday.
We'll see, I know you love it when I'm wrong, angel...
I'm hoping PSU can nail down a good season this year. Gonna be hard as always.
ReplyDeleteWasn't "FIRE RICK SANTELLI" one of the item's on Obama's desktop?
ReplyDeletekaren (12:05)
@McF
ReplyDeleteI think they play in Tuscaloosa on the second game of the year...
That's going to be MAD TOUGH...
DR:
ReplyDelete"The yield curve is really meaningless as an indicator when the policy rate is at zero."
LB, I don't love it when you are wrong! I love it when you make me $$$, laughing.. I've just been pointing out that I thot you were jumping the gun, so to speak.
ReplyDeletethey always play powder puffs early, though I recall very well the Akron game that was supposed to be powder puff earlier this decade, and they came to our house and pounded us.
ReplyDeletethose were the zach mills days....rough time.
I wanna see a cage match...
ReplyDeleteAnd not between Obama and Santelli...
Not between Ben and DL either...
ReplyDeleteOr Thor and CV...
Karen and Leftback?
ReplyDeleteI can't stop playing that shout fest.. it really makes me feel good for some reason.. and I hate shouting and loudness. i guess santelli was giving me a voice!!
ReplyDeleteBingo...
ReplyDeleteWe need a neutral ref tho...
I was thinking Nic at first, but there's the british thing...
Then I thought Bruce, but he already hates LB.
Maybe we could get Bertie or Prashant to referee.
2s10s now 216 bps.
ReplyDeleteThe GS call for the 10y was 2.75%, I think, MS was 5.5%.
Mine was probably 2.5%, can't exactly remember.
I doubt if we see that on this swing, but right now I wouldn't even be that surprised to see a 2.0% by EoY. If US savings rates pick up, a 1- handle might be out there. Look at Japan...
Hmm... housing collapses and LB can get a 2.0% mortgage, buying a foreclosed banker's penthouse at a fire sale price. How sweet would that be? Pretty soon there's a knock on the door, and it's Lloyd Blankfein, the super, asking if LB needs any recycling put out, and LB says no, but Mrs Liebowitz said there were some WICKED cockroaches in the laundry room, Lloyd...
WAKE UP, LEFTBACK. WAKE UP....
Sorry, I was dreaming...
PIMCO's Crescenzi: The Fed move can affect the job market in the long run primarily through the low interest rate, which helps corporations borrow.
ReplyDelete"I've just been pointing out that I thot you were jumping the gun, so to speak."
ReplyDeleteIt would be very unusual for me to go off half-cocked, angel.
I think we're gonna get squeezy in the heezy if this grind higher continues much longer...
ReplyDeleteI loved the Rosenberg bull/bear debate, video is at the same site. Two guys predict the past and then when Rosenberg disagrees with data and actually gives a forecast the response is to tell him that his data doesn't tell us if we will be in a double dip or not! T
ReplyDeleteClassic nonsense past predicting.
What Tony C is saying is this: FED move not intended to help JOHHNY buy a pile of govies, it is to lower the base interest rate that determines rates for corporate bonds. IOW, if risk stays even, spreads stay the same, but all rates decline and this supports the corporate bond market.
ReplyDeleteGM To File IPO Plans Early Next Week; Monday Target Date
ReplyDelete1:37 PM ET 8/13/10 | Dow Jones
Brian, aka MM, for mrtopstep:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJoSZIJtXVs
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteHow about RODNEY KING?