Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Morning Audibles 8.11.10

As CV mentioned in the comment thread last evening here on PERCH HATERS ANONOYMOUS TRADERS ANONYMOUS SURVIVOR CAPITAL...



CV said...

Speaking of zombies...

The Nikkei is getting POLEAXED...

Just what is a POLEAXE? I'm "axekin' y'all... Here, I found one...



This is how it looks like in FUTURES...


I think the PORK BELLIES are up because their entrails are being removed...

There are other useful things for POLEAXES (and "poles" for that matter - and sometimes they even go hand in hand)... To wit:


So that's your lesson for the day...

"Learn it... Know it... Live it..."

324 comments:

  1. @Amen (from other thread)

    I think there's been a gas leak at the WH for about the past 100 years...

    They're just discovering it now?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Pork bellies are up because swine flu was officially declared over this week

    ReplyDelete
  3. What can be the Stupid News thing that the Central Bankers or Govt can come up in the next week which could stop this slide. I mean, I had never heard of the shit called TARP before I heard it. I am really thinking hard.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Anon (9:18)

    I know... I know...

    Obama could tell everyone how he plans to DOUBLE exports within the next 5 years! and cut the deficit in half!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trade-deficit-surges-highest-october-2008-trounces-expectations-q2-gdp-be-revised-sub-1

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Anon

    And if the message isn't getting through... Jeffery Immelt can "take the whip" to his crew at CNBC & MSNBC

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gasparino-confirms-jeff-immelt-scolded-cnbc-staff-being-anti-obama

    ReplyDelete
  6. good morning! buying the dip, CV? has anyone seen the kraken?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Forgot to write that it was me Prashant at 9.18. I still feel something could still go haywire on the upside in the next few days. Or maybe it is just that often screwed bear in me. Thousand times bitten, once shy, I guess.

    Prashant

    ReplyDelete
  8. so much going on!

    zerohedge

    New post: Richard Russell Slams Robert Prechter, Praises Gold, Tells Readers To Get Out Of Stocks http://tinyurl.com/36rx7gv

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ooh Karen's top just got removed.

    ReplyDelete
  10. but we are not dropping thru fast enuf... CV, must be buying bigtime.

    ReplyDelete
  11. two comments about russell since ZH is presenting what he's been saying in light of their gold obsession:

    1. RR has said for months he's 50/50 cash/gold, so prechter says to have all cash, this isn't really a crazy difference in advice not to mention, anyone that has read CTC knows that in 2000 while Prechter said he was worried about gold (they did advise buying in some theorist letters around that time as well), he said to buy it then anyway and then told you the safest places to get it and how to properly store it, because it was the only real money there is. Prechter is not anti gold, that's just wrong.

    2. RR's claims about the US dollar in deflation are both consensual as well as a direct contradiction to what has happened historically during deflation.

    that's all.

    ReplyDelete
  12. iow, my #2 point, is to say, it's double different this time.

    possible of course, but I highly doubt that.

    ReplyDelete
  13. @karen

    I actually am going to get NET NEUTRAL here at 1098 and see what happens...

    yesterday... By some kind of miracle, I ended up the day "perched" short...

    I'm covering that up now...

    ReplyDelete
  14. If this really wants to hold... I'll go long...

    If it stays dicey...

    There's still the 1072 gap on the table...

    Not sure what to do here...

    ReplyDelete
  15. still short myself and perched on the edge of my chair.. : )

    ReplyDelete
  16. What could be VERY delightful would be if the market makes some kind of wide band sideways ABC-ABC pattern (and attempts to buy more time)...

    1072-1050???

    I could handle that in a big way...

    ReplyDelete
  17. WOW. KARENS TOP revealed in all its beauty....
    LB is in SHOCK AND AWE.

    Just watching. I mean, who can blame LB?

    ReplyDelete
  18. I think I saw the minis touch 1095...

    I-Man could probably confirm...

    I wasn't sure why that number (it wasn't on my radar screen as much as 1098...

    Ben, Andy, & LB... KUDOS on Bucky!

    ReplyDelete
  19. looks to be a particularly gruesome morning- guess that what happens when you break out the poleaxe

    ReplyDelete
  20. ben.. zh/td tends to put a certain slant on things..

    ReplyDelete
  21. Are we all seeing what we would like to see this morning?

    ReplyDelete
  22. @LB

    Question is... With the 10y here... Whow are the BD's going to sell to?

    "Are we having fun yet"
    "What's that"?
    "FUN"

    ReplyDelete
  23. Nikkei will continue to be poleaxed until BoJ intervention.
    LB will continue to take profits on his long bond position.

    The guys who put on the yield curve 4-5% flattener are being carted out on stretchers. MS was a big participant in that stroke of genius.

    ReplyDelete
  24. One way to look at this weeks' auction is this; on PANIC DAY, every JOE is going to want the Ts. So the B/D take-down will be minimal, enabling them to short the product as they sell it, and then buy it back at higher rates. When B/D participation is high, they obviously can't do this....

    ReplyDelete
  25. Jim Carrion of Mordant ScamleyAugust 11, 2010 at 9:48 AM

    I still say my 5.5% 10y is a good call.

    For 2020....

    ReplyDelete
  26. @LB

    2 year under .05 (10y 5.5%)... Now that's what I'd call a steepener...

    ReplyDelete
  27. LB your fixed income calls lately have been Infinite Quality.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsuj9AIMUJY&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  28. LB likes JNK here, for a trade. Will add to JNK and LQD today. Here's why:

    The credit market is solid for now. The bond investor is going to seek yield, with the FED supporting the Ts, then they will move out on the risk curve and can do so without any significant interest rate risk. Of course the Fed's objective is to support MBS market again, as well as corporates.

    ReplyDelete
  29. I-Man,

    I did short the 10y going into Fed day, which wasn't good. But that was a hedge, obviously, in case the easing was priced in or didn't occur.

    Calibrated risk, bro.

    ReplyDelete
  30. So here we are...

    PERCHed halfway in between two HUGE chart gaps...

    Down near 1070
    Up near 1020

    karen - cue the Stealers Wheel...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hey we dont get em all right...

    Just trying to bat over .500...

    Harder than it sounds.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Credit will lead. Once the covering is over in the 2y, then we might see a bit of risk-taking emerge, in the bond market and FX before equities.

    ReplyDelete
  33. I was just charting JNK.. i want 38.25-50, at least.

    ReplyDelete
  34. just sold some bzq i think.. keeping what i bot under 20 for now.

    half my faz just went too.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Steepener helps the banks. The banks are floating above the Spooz.
    That's a clue as to what will bounce...

    ReplyDelete
  36. mrtopstep

    #futures $ES_F volumes abv recnt avg - sell prgms erly flvr - think weak shrts will b sqzed abv 1098 area

    ReplyDelete
  37. mrtopstep

    #futures $ES_F 09:00:28 we think the 1093.80 low is good for low for now 10 handle rule in effect 09:00:50 everyone short

    ReplyDelete
  38. nah.. i wanna see 1088-1090 for a bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  39. of course, third time might not be a charm..

    ReplyDelete
  40. @karen

    No question that 1088-1090 may be nabbed...

    I took some profits at 1098... Simply Bcuz I'm SICK of not booking profits this past month (and watching them vanish)...

    CV playing small ball here...

    ReplyDelete
  41. Yeah, one of these days and it wont be long...

    The dib buyer will be trapped, long.

    ReplyDelete
  42. b22 @ 9:35-

    the problem w/ ZH- although I like much of the content are the comments-

    talk about on the fringe

    ReplyDelete
  43. @I-Man

    It won't be long...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbL6OBT6Zc

    ReplyDelete
  44. I-Man is going to wait for a short entry...

    Today is a message I think.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Yields hit bottom at 49 bps on 2y and have backed up slightly.
    Small bounce trades initiated, with stops just below the 1090 area.

    ZHer: GOLD not going up FAST ENOUGH. MANIPULATION !!!

    Wonder what the NAZZ trader msg boards would have been like in 99..?

    ReplyDelete
  46. @ahab

    I think the comments at ZH are hysterical...

    I go there for my daily dose of comedy...

    ReplyDelete
  47. I-Man was channeling more of this one, CV:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hmcdoqtonuc

    ReplyDelete
  48. i love fringe !! long fringe : )

    ReplyDelete
  49. just exchanged an email with 72bat.. he is very very ill!

    ReplyDelete
  50. I feel naked without my avatar.... or half-naked, anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  51. @I-man @LB

    Frankly... I don't think it make a whole lotta difference whether one initiates SHORT or LONG here...

    We're going to end up COVERING both the chart gap at 1072 AND the chart gap from this morning...

    there are 20 points of S&P meat either way...

    So anyone who starts with half a position here, and gets it wrong could probably catch the other side on the eventual snapback...

    JM2c

    ReplyDelete
  52. Peeps...

    I don't know what the deal is on the avatars...

    I checked the blog settings... I just don't know...

    ReplyDelete
  53. Get well, Bat...

    Sick in summer blows.

    Good vibes from the I.

    ReplyDelete
  54. when I was seeing comments lambasting Jews for not joining the US military (ask me if I give a shit)- what of the Quakers- I bet their not represented well either- but really- where do you get statistics like that anyway-

    the KKK journal

    ReplyDelete
  55. Glad I sold my 2000 shares of QLD on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Blogger must have something about Rasta donkeys... broke the system.

    ReplyDelete
  57. More retirement insanity:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/110295/how-rich-is-rich?mod=fidelity-buildingwealth&cat=fidelity_2010_building_wealth

    With $34K saved up, JOHN Q BOOMER is well on his way to WEALTH ! This is the real deflation driver. To pay for JOHN and JANE BOOMER's MEALS on WHEELS so they don't eat dog food, we are all going to pay more tax. JOHN and JANE will not be spending much. Trust me.

    ReplyDelete
  58. . . .and b22- re RP- the way I see it- the dude is definitely not anti-gold- he is just pro USD

    ReplyDelete
  59. DL:

    Brilliant.

    Nice timing. LB twitched, it was a great day to sell. Low volume, grind up, FED ahead. Classic. Now we are still ITM (from 1040 area) but if we get a break below 1100 today, we are out.

    ReplyDelete
  60. i need a new avatar anyway.. this buys me more time. i attempted to foto my glossy fushia painted toes, but it was hardly impressive. one of those you-woulda-had-to-be-there moments.

    ReplyDelete
  61. LB.. we've been below 1100 all morning.

    ReplyDelete
  62. mrtopstep

    #futures #bonds $ES_F antr by opp in spoos on retest of lows-if 30yr trds 130.18 & lwer sud test 130.13 w/obj 130.07 w/spoos firming

    wondering where Nic is.. she was her last night.

    ReplyDelete
  63. mrtopstep

    ESTIMATES CRUDE: -1.8 MB -2.5 MB MOGAS: -300 KB +1.7 MBDIST: +1.3 MB +750 KB

    ReplyDelete
  64. wowza, on travel, pulled over to check the markets and... what a drop! 1098!

    Although I thought SPX would see 1098 this week, didn't think it would be hit in 10 minutes!

    fib numbers above and below 18's 1098 are near 1105 and 1091.

    Yesterdays 18's fib 1127 may have been the high in SPX for a few weeks IMO.

    Really thought a few weeks ago this "18" trading strategy might not work out well, but seems to be working BTE. (I just jinxed myself!)

    Good luck trading, NOW can not even guess if we close higher or lower than 1098 today.

    ReplyDelete
  65. HYG and JNK already up. Spreads are tighter.

    Be ready to cover.

    ReplyDelete
  66. K.,

    LB means a close below 1100.

    NICE TOP! By the way...

    ReplyDelete
  67. K @ 10:25

    Admittedly, it is a little seasonal. (At least for those of us who don't live in S. Cal).

    ReplyDelete
  68. Hey, I'm 18... so I'm old enuff to see Karens top?

    hehe

    18

    ReplyDelete
  69. Hello Karen
    Im practising my shorter term crude trading skills

    ReplyDelete
  70. LB.. you don't know everything! new low on spx right now. and the kraken is still missing.. i think CV left the dungeon unlocked on purpose.

    ReplyDelete
  71. We could still rally back to 1125 or so over the next week or two. But I would think that pre-election jitters are going to set in by early September.

    ReplyDelete
  72. The US is secretly bankrupt:
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiFjnanrDWVk

    ReplyDelete
  73. I have crude trading skills as well.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Nic! fun stuff! especially if it ever disconnects from the stock market..

    ReplyDelete
  75. SECRETLY bankrupt?

    I don't know... if we eliminate entitlements and defense spending, we'll be O.K.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Karen I think you and I are the only ones looking for lower lows today...

    Symmetry.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  77. The US is secretly bankrupt

    not a well kept secret

    ReplyDelete
  78. geeze.. bzq certainly has become a thinly traded etf..

    ReplyDelete
  79. and remember yesterday i said i wouldn't be happy unless we took out the low of last week.. and we did it! now the bulls have some technical damage to deal with on their jaunt to 1250..

    ReplyDelete
  80. Ladies & Gentlemen

    Our lovely karen provides the ENTIRE daily liquidity for BZQ...

    Glad to see you're a market maker karen...

    ReplyDelete
  81. oh, and have you heard? Ireland is the new Greece.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Karen,

    I don't know everything, and I forgot about the overnight Kraken...

    But I do know it's spelled fuchsia.
    But pronounced "FEWSHA"...

    Anyone noticed that KRAKEN is an anagram of KAREN K ?

    ReplyDelete
  83. mrtopstep

    bonds popin bak up w/out testin 13013 adds prssr to spoos but not ovr yet = slippery USE STOPSmor dwnside comes stps 9300 area 1087 area obj

    ReplyDelete
  84. @Amen

    You'd better be coming up with something "spiffy" for CREDITCANE...

    And don't forget "Whistling Straits"

    ReplyDelete
  85. typo LB! i'm hardly perfect.. but Kathryn was my middle name.

    ReplyDelete
  86. @LB

    Did you know that BL was an anagram of LB? :-)

    ReplyDelete
  87. creditcane!!!! definitely should be trademarked

    regarding BK of the good ole' USA-

    I like the idea of retrenchment of our military- however-

    can we look at the military as just a huge jobs program for young men-

    what of the future when they are all unemployed stateside?

    something to ponder?

    ReplyDelete
  88. That's how you were able to call the feftback bottom...

    You "felt" it...

    ReplyDelete
  89. thanks for the well wishes. just lurkin' while hurtin'.
    re u.s. bankruptcy, noted the author, Kotlikoff, also wrote "Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking"
    sounds like a plan. if only.

    ReplyDelete
  90. alaidi - those rumours abt ECB "dabbling" in those Irish bonds came mins after BoI said deposit margins remain under pressure #euro #forex $$

    ReplyDelete
  91. Slovak Parliament Rejects 816 Mln Bilateral Loan To Greece

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  92. $tnx at new 52 week low.. we knew that would happen..

    ReplyDelete
  93. mrtopstep - #futures ES_F 09:52:5 congestion lower 1090's to 1087 area note: two wk low 1084.70

    ReplyDelete
  94. btw...

    VERY much appreciated the TOPSTEP tweets :-)

    ReplyDelete
  95. JNK and HYG still above their lows for the day. TBT probably worth a small wager on a) spreads tightening or b) all rates rising from here.

    Treasury complex is really quite exuberant here.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Feel like a piker saying this down 2%, but I could see 100 handles off YM in a heartbeat...

    That 10285 could come into play with just a little push...

    Remember the Gann water quote... once the pump is turned off, it takes no energy...

    Gravity rides everything.

    ReplyDelete
  97. EUR-JPY 109.9450 -2.6355 -2.34%

    This is broken. Ra pointed out the break of 113 as important.
    The 113 level now serves as resistance to a bounce.

    The Market has never crashed in August.
    Of course there is a first time for everything....

    LB says BoJ intervention, tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Nikkei ended down 3.63% and we're only at 2.7% right now...

    ReplyDelete
  99. we talked about this, too: zerohedge - New post: NYSE Short Interest Lowest Since January As Selloff Buffer Disappears http://tinyurl.com/2ef46qn

    ReplyDelete
  100. @LB

    Keep in mind that next week is OPEX...

    I'm thinking that there are a bunch of STRANGLEs up near the 1120 area...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pxoGnFIsjA

    So today (maybe even tomorrow & early Friday, bears can have some fun)...

    But wait for it to get pull back into line...

    If it's slow getting there, there's ALWAYS the "surprise announcement" by the Fed on 3:55PM next Thursday)...

    ReplyDelete
  101. from nic's link-

    The fiscal gap is the government’s credit-card bill and each year’s 14 percent of GDP is the interest on that bill. If it doesn’t pay this year’s interest, it will be added to the balance.

    Demand-siders say forgoing this year’s 14 percent fiscal tightening, and spending even more, will pay for itself, in present value, by expanding the economy and tax revenue.

    My reaction? Get real, or go hang out with equally deluded supply-siders. Our country is broke and can no longer afford no- pain, all-gain “solutions.”


    no doubt- American's have proven however they won't forgive a President who delivers the real news-

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXvGKJF2XQU&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  102. A little gem, for you all, from Mr Practical:

    Money vs Wealth

    ReplyDelete
  103. CV:

    RUT is -3.22% so we aren't far away from Nikkei -3.63%.
    Congrats to Ra, who I think pointed out RUT as a good short.

    ReplyDelete
  104. HYG made a new low. JNK, TBT still off its low.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Very few ladies have ever complained about the Leftback Bottom.
    It was perfectly timed... when the market goes UP on bad news ....

    ReplyDelete
  106. That was delayed...
    LB doesn't make gratuitous references to his bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  107. I-Man.. a tweet for you: neiltyson

    A bullet fired level from a gun will hit ground at same time as a bullet dropped from the same height. Do the Physics.

    ReplyDelete
  108. So when does the carry trade unwind begin in earnest?

    ReplyDelete
  109. HUD To Offer Interest-Free Loans To Distressed Homeowners-

    pretty soon they will be paying them to stay in their homes

    ReplyDelete
  110. New SPX lows but no new TICK lows...

    ReplyDelete
  111. BoJ intervention or full-blown carry trade unwind?
    I'll take the BoJ this time around, fancy a flutter on the Nikkei.

    BUCKY just about stopped here above DXY 82.20
    This was a dress rehearsal for September.

    LB could be wrong, and if so, will be eviscerated by KAREN....
    ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  112. @72

    feel better man.

    @all,

    I'd be posting but sort of busy today, and I have this perch sandwich for lunch and all.

    king dollar! played with some call options on UUP, I removed one of them today....thanks dollar.

    also, I'm taking credit for the small cap short call as well, as I've been rapping about it for two weeks.

    this fall is going to be a traders dream come true I think.

    last, I'm not sure if it was the top but a few weeks back I posted based on some fib work I was doing a top around 8/9-8/11 +/- 2 days.

    I'll show my chart if it plays this way, if not, just pretend I never mentioned it.

    ReplyDelete
  113. @Amen

    It seems they like to pussyfoot all these FIB extension landings...

    Butterflies with sore feet...

    ReplyDelete
  114. "The future is no more uncertain than the present."

    -Walt Whitman


    "The future is no more than the rising sun."

    -Midnite

    ReplyDelete
  115. @McF

    "I have this perch sandwich for lunch and all."

    "MMMMM - Perch"

    ReplyDelete
  116. Way too many people had EURUSD target at 1.35
    I think the I-Man nailed that one.

    These 2 and 3% pull-backs are traditionally the stuff of "bull markets", so if we bounce off this low and close above 1100, it will be bought.

    The 5-6% drops are bear market moves, and are followed by 3-4% (=61.8% fib of 5-6%) squeeze days. That's ugly action and if we see that we are so in cash.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Other famous PERCH in history...

    "To sleep, perchance to dream. Ay, there's the rub,
    For in that sleep of death what dreams may come"

    Hamlet (III, i, 65-68)

    ReplyDelete
  118. That sneaky Mr Fibonacci and his 61.8's...

    ReplyDelete
  119. iPhone Users Have Twice as Much Sex as Android Users

    http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/iphone-users-have-twice-as/

    ReplyDelete
  120. EURJPY off its lows, European trading day coming to an end.

    ReplyDelete
  121. That's not frequency, Karen, it's promiscuity...

    ReplyDelete
  122. TLT is well below its July 21 high.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Re: SEX

    A Kentucky State Trooper was patrolling late at night off the main highway.

    He sees a couple in a car, with the interior light brightly glowing. He carefully

    approaches the car to get a closer look. Then he sees a young man behind

    the wheel, reading a computer magazine. He immediately notices a young

    woman in the rear seat, filing her fingernails.

    Puzzled by this surprising situation, the trooper walks to the car and gently raps

    on the driver's window. The young man lowers his window. 'Uh, yes, Officer?'


    The trooper asks: 'What are you doing?' The young man says: 'Well, Officer, I'm



    reading a magazine.'

    Pointing towards the young woman in the back seat the trooper says:

    'And her, what is she doing?'

    The young man shrugs: 'Sir, I believe she's filing her fingernails.'

    Now, the trooper is totally confused. A young couple, alone, in a

    car, at night in a lover's lane ... And nothing obscene is happening!

    The trooper asks: 'What's your age, young man?'

    The young man says: 'I'm 22, sir.'

    The trooper asks: 'And her .... what's her age?'

    The young man looks at his watch and replies:

    'She'll be 18 in 11 minutes.. '

    ReplyDelete
  124. LB is off until the auction. Stops in place....

    Enjoy.

    ReplyDelete
  125. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/trading-ideas-price-action-stock-market/8/11/2010/id/29560?page=1

    Jeff Cooper is Top Rankin.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Lefty,

    you trying to bait me or something? re: EUR:USD?

    I just said three days ago the 1.35 target wasn't going to work, it was the same target everyone had. I'd dig up the comment but on top of the avatar's being gone the blog search function doesn't seem to work either.

    REally though, I'm just crying that you aren't telling me how awesome I am, ahahahaha.

    My market calls have mostly been pretty crappy the last six months, but the dollar, I've had a bead on that p.o.s since last fall. It's been very profitable for me and for clients.

    ReplyDelete
  127. mrtopstep

    #futures $ES_F lunch time 60 locals in pit GS and ML (actually Bruce Kovner?) sold about 500 each lookin for 1094 area retst now key/bonds

    ReplyDelete
  128. Yeah that was Ben on RUT. Not I.

    ReplyDelete
  129. The uncertainty meme is really silly isn't it? We talked about this a few weeks ago.

    One claim that holds no water at all is that businesses aren't hiring because of "uncertainty" but if that were actually the case we should have been seeing hours worked increase, iow, there's work to be done but they are afraid to hire more so they make the current employees work more.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Washington (AP) -- The Obama administration is providing $3 billion to unemployed homeowners facing foreclosure in the nation's toughest job markets.

    The Treasury Department says it will send $2 billion to 17 states that have unemployment rates higher than the national average for a year. They will use the money for programs to aid unemployed homeowners. Some of those states have already designed such programs.

    Another $1 billion will go to a new program being run by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. It will provide homeowners with emergency zero-interest rate loans of up to $50,000 for up to two years.

    The administration was required to launch the programs by the financial regulatory bill signed by President Barack Obama last month.

    ReplyDelete
  131. gotta roll- leaving you all w/ a cover of Lady Gaga-

    Poker Face

    all have a good day

    ReplyDelete
  132. $3 billion.


    hmmm.....Is that big?

    NO!

    These guys don't even bring a knife to a gun fight, they bring sticks...no.... twigs.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Wednesday, August 11th, 2010, 11:13 am
    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said this week it plans to reinvest proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held by the US central bank into long-term Treasurys.

    Analysts are warning that the paydowns will in the long run boost supply of MBS, while demand may lag behind in the absence of the Federal Reserve's purchases — which ended in March.

    Capital Economics senior US economist Paul Ashworth calls the Fed's plan to reinvest paydowns into Treasurys a "largely symbolic gesture, designed to reassure the markets rather than boost the economy."

    http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/11/analysts-warn-mbs-supply-may-outstrip-demand-with-fed-paydowns

    ReplyDelete
  134. Nic

    EURUSD didn't just fall out of its channel, it had a gravity lesson.

    ReplyDelete
  135. ben @ 12:06.. absolutely true!

    ReplyDelete
  136. @McF

    Still.. I'd like me some of that cheese...

    ReplyDelete
  137. @McF

    I think we should OUTSOURCE all our federal jobs to China to save money... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  138. They could make that $3B go a lot further if they would just mail out checks for $1000 each to registered Democrats in swing districts.

    ReplyDelete
  139. B22:

    MEA CULPA. There are so many great calls here I have trouble remembering who made 'em. Nice job.

    The problem is, with the KAREN AVATAR, LB's mind just melts...

    ReplyDelete
  140. Businesses are not hiring b/c there is no effing demand.
    Period.

    ReplyDelete
  141. CV,

    這是一個好主意。

    ReplyDelete
  142. left,

    totally kidding man, everyone here has made some money calls at one point or another this year....everyone.

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  143. "we have systematic failure of disclosure of what is really happening on the fiscal side. Government and international organizations are lying effectively lying to us, there is no question about it. The present value of the difference between spending and revenues from the CBO is $200 trillion."

    remember that link i posted a day or two ago where that white house woman is saying the bill was paid for???

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  144. @HU

    Man who eat fortune cookie in bed have crummy sleep...

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  145. you can watch the interview with Kotlikoff:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/boston-universitys-kotlikoff-explains-why-us-bankrupt

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  146. No effing demand, yes.

    But how to revive the animal spirits without piling on another $5T in debt?

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  147. @HU

    Man who run in front of car become TIRED

    Man who run behind car become EXHAUSTED

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  148. CV,

    O.K., O.K., I get the picture.

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  149. I linked this before but I'll do it again, this slideshow is aces:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/agora-symposium-slideshow/

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  150. Hey, I.. thanks for the Cooper.. you know I <3 him and would have missed that one.

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  151. alright, I'll be back around the close, enjoy the perch, I mean markets.

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  152. kroo

    http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/kroo-small-cap-etfs-australian-etfs/8/11/2010/id/29561

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  153. kroo.. not sure if the article failed to point out the lack of volume cuz i didn't read it.. my excitement has vanished.

    ben! thanks for that slideshow!

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  154. B22,

    That BAZZA slideshow is terrific. Especially the politics part...

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  155. Karen,

    Do you still HEART me too?

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  156. David,

    KAREN does a lot of HEARTing.... get over it....

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  157. Interesting little new low at the tail end of lunch hour...

    Dont see that everyday.

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  158. Nouriel

    V is dead; anemic U growth is baseline; prob of a double dip W is now 40%; and a L shaped near depression is possible in US/Eurozone/Japan

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  159. Home Prices Rise in Many Cities

    Karen, want to comment on this POS news story?
    Home prices rising = beginning of the high end crumble?

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  160. For Leftback, from the Cooper link...

    "The Masterplan"
    Oasis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdvqss4S_-I&feature=email

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  161. Whatever happened to the inverted square root?

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  162. looking at spy which helped me with the turn around last time (the time i was calling for 106).. we've got a problem.. even today's open was below the uptrend.. it is clearly broken. i'm looking for 109 flat but why should that hold? it's weak support.. unless the cavalry comes in.

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  163. Here come the 10y Tsys?

    Who wants these beauties?

    SOLD to you, Mister CARON, to cover those UNSIGHTLY SHORTS....
    Mr MACK, please put the CATTLE PROD down until trading is over...

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  164. 10y sold at 2.73%, slightly above the 2.71%
    Coverage 3.03, strong but not overwhelming.

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  165. sonar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfVu3KVh6Gw

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  166. A last hour dribble into the close from here would get ugly.
    So my guess is the "PPT" activity will start soon, if there is to be any.

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  167. @McF (12:29)

    I'll bet slide 34 is your favorite...

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  168. topstep: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qKHCNio5Kw

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  169. did he say 1066 or 666.. i have major tree working going on here.. 3 canaries coming out and and a 45 foot eucalyptus..

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  170. @I-Man

    I concur... It goes back to the "fulcrum" of CV's EXPANDING WEDGE that I was talking about 3 weeks ago...

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  171. @I-Man

    Fore reference...

    The slides on this thread...

    http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/07/morning-audibles-72910-within-without.html

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  172. and that is my 106 SPY number.

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  173. DL.. PIMCO tweet

    Gross: We need to become job competitive, to direct more emphasis and investment in clean energy, infrastructure and education.

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  174. 1067.52 is the 23.6% retrace of the monthly 3LB range (1186.69-1030.71).

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  175. Karen @ 1:46

    Gee, thanks.

    (And don't get me started).

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  176. LB rode the THIRD WORLD NYC SUBWAY this morning. It is falling apart, something you really notice if you go to Copenhagen or London where they have actively updated sections of the Tube and continue to do so.

    Why not invest in that instead of sending my tax $ directly to BLANKFIEND? I guess BLANKY doesn't strap-hang...?

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  177. I love it. Everyone is so chirpy on big down days.

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  178. hahaha! alaidi

    RT @Martwittius: @alaidi How come USD rebounded despite weak outlook for US economy & FOMC stance on QE?. WILL ANSWER YOU SOOn

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  179. The formerly "strapless" karens top, now has the straps back on...

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  180. LB.. did you read about the mosque protest at the twin towers? the protestors think they were censored by the media.. i thot i read about it, tho.. maybe it was tweeted : )

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  181. LB @ 1:53

    I would agree that investment in the NY subway system is a more worthy objective than 80-90% of the "stimulus" goals that Obama has wasted money on.

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  182. CV

    We need illustrations. Like before and after...

    K is going to love it if LB crashes and eats his bounce trades....

    ReplyDelete
  183. If they would just turn AIR FORCE 2 and MARINE ONE into fractional jet & helicopter ownership and let every citizen take turns using them on their vacations and to fly 6 miles across town...

    I'd be on board with that... :-)

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  184. @LB

    That's why the avatars are down...

    karen crammed the system with nude fotos (which were censored by blogger)...

    ReplyDelete