I can't battle the ABC-x-ABC crap... I surrender... Therefore - I can only offer a musical anthology (a timely one at that - from personal perspective - apologies to those with slow internet connections... This may end up being the SLOWEST, but BEST, "SC" post of all time)...
CV's solemn tribute to BEARS (and to CV himself, for that matter)...
GODZILLA - BLUE OYSTER CULT - 1978
ANDY T's tribute...
---ANDY T---
Good Evening Capitalists (provided Capitalism is still legal),
Embedded here are some thoughts on the S&P 500, DXY and a brief look at Gold.
Anyone else remember that violent puke out last Friday? It looked pretty scary last weekend but the technicals suggested we had experienced only an initial leg higher and that higher prices were likely. Indeed. The picture continues to look bullish for the next few weeks but some pullback/congestions seems more likely this week. The market finished right at key resistance, so if Monday starts strong, expect more follow through to the upside that would target 1130.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Side note musings:
I noticed some banter on other sites that implied that the "news" does move the market at times and that the "news" does not always follow the trend.
That idea is generally incorrect.
The NEWS ALWAYS FOLLOWS THE TREND. ALWAYS. An intra-week or intra-day "gyration" on some kind of "surprise" does not count as a "trend." That's just "noise" which is pretty meaningless when viewed on a longer term horizon.
I know that idea seems like an "absolutism," but in trading, as is in life, some things are "absolute."
Frankly... CV isn't MUSING that much... Except in a different way... I "apologetically" discarded you all last Friday to tell you all that I was headed to the EASTERN SHORE (which is, the DELMARVA peninsula, the EASTERN part of the Chesapeake Bay) to do some CRABBING (which I did, & which I hope we'll get to a narrative of this week... time permitting)... What many of you do not know is that CV went to college (you know, the FIRST year before [probation bound] SoCal, at Salisbury State College (hey-at least I didn't have to change school colors) on the eastern shore of Maryland...
Anyway - My first semester of college was 1978... Some kind of crappy year that nobody probably remembers, RIGHT?... Now... You have to think that CV has been back to the EASTERN SHORE of Maryland a couple of times since then (even tho I moved to SoCal in 1979, then lived in Italy from 1994-2006)...
But UNTIL YESTERDAY... The following had NEVER happened...
I'm driving back (not a short drive from southern DELMARVA... Crisfield, [actually SMITH ISLAND] - is where I was at)... And the radio stations start to play a 1978 anthology of music (the time when CV was "18" , a freshman in college, and KNEW ACTUALLY LESS than he knows now [which is hard to believe, right?]...
So the PURPOSE of this thread is to SHARE with you all... MUSICALLY... Why CV knows absolutely NOTHING about the world... Why "Lady GA GA" and the CD 6 packs (of unknown YOU TUBE bands) that I see every week tell the REAL story...
See? The weekend that CV "graduated" from high school, in 1978, (and drove down to Ocean City, Maryland) with... Steve Sebastian (a NASA physicist), Mike Kim (an Air Force officer), Richard Catano (an Air Force officer), Steve Kierstead (an NSA cryptologist), and David Buie (a Coast Guard officer)... The truth is... CV drove because he was the only SOBER person in the graduating class that evening (CV was very "religious" those days... WORSE... a religious JOCK... so he OFTEN drove)...
Anyway - Coming back in 2010 - this evening... It was like going thru a VORTEX... As soon as I passed "Salisbury" (on Rte 13)... The station started playing a 1978 ANTHOLOGY (I kid you not)...
I don't want to elaborate... So all I can do is share (how much we SUCKED back in 1978, and how much more ADVANCED we are to have LADY GAGA these days - plus, JUSTIN BEIBER, & all these anonymous YOU TUBE acts - that I'm sure will be as popular as the following in 30 years)...
Thank GOD you're all not CV... (think about how much your lives would SUCK if the following were the tunes that defined your transition from youth to adulthood - like CV)... Think about it!... Compared to Lady Gaga & Justin Beiber... Your lives would certainly be DULL!... (No HOPE...EVER!)...
SURRENDER - CHEAP TRICK - 1978
HOLLYWOOD NIGHTS - BOB SEGER -1978
2 TICKETS TO PARADISE - EDDIE MONEY - 1978
DON'T LOOK BACK - BOSTON - 1978
(Bonus - PEACE OF MIND - BOSTON) - 1978
YOU REALLY GOT ME - VAN HALEN I - 1978
SHATTERED - THE ROLLING STONES - 1978
DUST IN THE WIND - KANSAS - 1978
WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS - QUEEN - 1978
YOU'RE ALL I'VE GOT TONIGHT - THE CARS - 1978
-BONUS-
CV has to make special note here... To some... NOMINATING "The CARS" seems trivial... But notwithstanding the SUPERSTARS of that era... THE CARS were "it" in that moment... So... let me add...
let the good times roll
best friends girl
just what i needed
bye bye love
movin in stereo
known (to most), from... you know
This... UNHERALDED... Might say MOST of what CV is trying to say... In fact, Springsteen performed this at "the CAPITAL CENTER (which has since been demolished... CV saw Aerosmith - David Bowie - The Beach Boys - Lynrd Skynrd & others at that venue)... He later wrote "Hungry Heart" based on the legacy... Anyway, this (following) is kind of what CV tries to bring to the table... INTENSITY WISE... This is what CV tries to do everyday (night)...
SPRINGSTEEN - PROVE IT ALL NIGHT -1978
In all... It wasn't such a bad year, 1978... But if you GOOGLE "Billboard Top 100 1978"... Hardly any of these songs will show up... Oh you'll get great DISCO tunes from Donna Summer, Heatwave, KC & the Sunshine Band, the Bee Gees, & of course, GREASE came out that year (as well as "Animal House") so you get a collection thereof)... But it DOESN'T tell you the story of what CV (and his drunk buddies) were ACTUALLY listening to on that trip down to Ocean City in the summer of 1978 (and which, strangely, followed me home last evening)...
Despite Andy T's ABC prognostications... CV is "hoping" that algos aren't as DRUNK as my former high school friends...
Either way... I'll have to use my WITS to get us all to the final destination in a SAFE way...
Good Luck... I hope you enjoyed the story... I hope you all enjoy CV ripping off the bandages from time to time...
Thanks Andy. So quiet on the financial news front this weekend. Tumbleweeds on the homepage of most financial news outlets.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Andy. So I guess the 878 has been put on the back burner? I have to say I'm pretty bummed about it all right now. EWI is not doing too well the last couple of weeks nor is mcHAPPY lol.
ReplyDeletemcHappy.
ReplyDeleteI've never suggested 800's would happen overnight. Life's a journey and so is the market. There are plenty of twists and turns along the way.
Enjoy the ride.
mcHappy.
ReplyDeleteAlso, for whatever it's worth, I've never mentioned a Primary 3 as a possibility and none of my counts have highlighted any kind of impulsive wave-3 down coming.
I have a bearish "call" for the next few months, but nothing like what you may have seen in other places.
EWI is a good read, but please don't put a ton of money on their calls... and please don't put a ton of money on my stuff.
Good luck man.
"and please don't put a ton of money on my stuff"
ReplyDeleteO.K., maybe just a few thousand.
#Andy
ReplyDeleteNo worries on the 878. If you read it like I was calling you out I apologize. I meant "on the back burner" to mean it is still there just not imminent or anytime soon.
This market is difficult lately. One day you think the count is right in front of you and the next day it does a 180 on you.
I hope to figure it out one day.
@Andy, thanks for your Sunday night posts( even in Summer).
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reminder, "news always follows the trend".
I Can
@DL
ReplyDeleteOut of curiousity, your 9:50, is that sarcasm or snark?
McHappy @ 10:17
ReplyDeleteMe? Sarcastic?
NEVER.
A "180"?? Didn't you mean a "360"??
ReplyDelete"What is this, Benedict? First you're my friend; now you turn a... 360 on me!"
- Anthony Quinn as the crime boss in "Last Action Hero"
Enjoyed the story CV...
ReplyDeletehttp://m.cnbc.com/us_news/38409381?refresh=true
ReplyDeleteSupposedly, last week was full of good news.
hmmm -
ReplyDeletecv, did you pass a lime green '60 vw bug going north? 'bout that same time, i was driving the coast up from georgia with the objective of finding the best hush puppies on the eastern seaboard. along about ocean city, stopped to help a couple whose bug had broken down. she was headed for the graduation at the coast guard academy, so gave her a lift to annapolis.
didn't get very good reception on the bug's radio so probably had old 4-tracks in the tape deck and missed imprinting the same sound track you heard.
as to the markets..., bat is going to estivate for the nonce.
You know why they call them HUSH PUPPIES right?
ReplyDeleteuh, no.
ReplyDeleteCV, I would rather spend all day on your blogpost that the market.. Thanks for a great start to the day!
ReplyDelete@72bat
ReplyDeleteThey's feed 'em to the dogs as snacks to get 'em to stop yappin' & howlin'...
HUSH PUPPY!
That head fake didn't last long.
ReplyDeleteA must read DR:
ReplyDeletehttps://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_072610.pdf
YOU KNOW YOU ARE IN A DEPRESSION WHEN ...
Congress moved to extend jobless benefits seven times, as has been the case over the past two years, at a time when almost half of the ranks of the unemployed have been looking for at least a half year.
The unemployment rate for adult males (25-54 years) hit a post-WWII this cycle and is still above the 1982 recession peak, and the youth unemployment rate is stuck near 25%. These developments will have profound long-term consequences – social, economic and political.
The fiscal costs of the depression continue to mount, with the White House on Friday raising its deficit projection for 2011 to $1.4 trillion from $1.267 trillion. That gap in the forecast – $133 billion – was close to the size of the entire budget deficit back in 2002. Amazing.
You also know it is a depression when you find out on the weekend that the FDIC seized and shuttered another seven banks, making it 103 closures for the year. What a recovery!
Meanwhile, how are the surviving banks making money? By cutting their provisions for bad debts (at a time when the household debt/income ratio is still near record highs of 120% and at a time when one-quarter of the consumer universe has a sub-600 FICO score – which means they are also ineligible for Fannie or Freddie mortgage financing. The banks thus far have reduced their loan loss reserves between 23% (Cap One) and 73% (First Horizon) – as Jamie Dimon said last week, these are not real earnings.
You also know it's a depression when a year into a statistical recovery, the central bank is still openly contemplating ways to stimulate growth. The Fed was supposed to have already started the process of shrinking its pregnant balance sheet four months ago and is now instead thinking of restarting Quantitative Easing. Of course, we are in this bizarre environment where bank credit continues to contract – last week alone, bank wide consumer credit outstanding fell $2.2 billion; real estate lending contracted $9.2 billion; and commercial & industrial loans slid $5.1 billion.
Did we mention that you also know you are in some sort of depression when after two years of record $1+ trillion deficit financing to kick-start the economy,the yield on the 5-year note is sitting at 1.8%? What do you think that tells you? It tells you that the private credit market is basically defunct, especially when it comes to the securitized loans, which played such a critical role in promoting leveraged economic growth from 2001 to 2007 – the amount of securitized credit that has vanished since the credit bubble burst two years ago is $1.4 trillion – 40% of this market is gone. And what replaced it was this rampant government intervention into the economy – aimed at putting a floor under the economy. But insofar as the government stimulus fades and the contraction in credit persists, it will be interesting to see what sort of spending, output and income growth we are going to see in the near- and intermediate-term.
http://www.thefinancialphysician.com/blog/
ReplyDelete• 83 percent of all U.S. stocks are in the hands of 1 percent of the people.
• 61 percent of Americans “always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck, which was up from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
• 66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.
• 36 percent of Americans say that they don’t contribute anything to retirement savings.
• A staggering 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.
• 24 percent of American workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year.
• Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008.
• Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.
• For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.
• In 1950, the ratio of the average executive’s paycheck to the average worker’s paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.
• As of 2007, the bottom 80 percent of American households held about 7% of the liquid financial assets.
• The bottom 50 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.
• Average Wall Street bonuses for 2009 were up 17 percent when compared with 2008.
• In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector.
• The top 1 percent of U.S. households own nearly twice as much of America’s corporate wealth as they did just 15 years ago.
• In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.
• More than 40 percent of Americans who actually are employed are now working in service jobs, which are often very low paying.
• or the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011.
• This is what American workers now must compete against: in China a garment worker makes approximately 86 cents an hour and in Cambodia a garment worker makes approximately 22 cents an hour.
• Approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 – the highest rate in 20 years.
• Despite the financial crisis, the number of millionaires in the United States rose a whopping 16 percent to 7.8 million in 2009.
• The top 10 percent of Americans now earn around 50 percent of our national income.
Karen
ReplyDeleteSo DR is basically saying that we've been treading water for far too long and our legs should be too tired to continue.
Goodnight and good luck! See you after Labor Day.
ReplyDeletek -
ReplyDelete"The top 10 percent of Americans now receive around 50 percent of our national income"
there, fixed that
CV
ReplyDeleteHere it comes. Damn.
"The top 10 percent of Americans now receive around 50 percent of our national income"
ReplyDeleteThe rest are HOPE they can scrounge some spare CHANGE
@Amen
ReplyDeleteWhat's interesting is that CV's "expanding wedge" boundaries are right at the .09 and .1459 at in the same instant...
wow, lots of good music links, 1108 gap filled...I know, stating the obvious, we've just been waiting it seems like for a long time to see it.
ReplyDeleteif the dow closes around this level today it's above it's june high but the trannies are not, a dow theory non-confirmation, in fact, the trannies have a long way to go yet so this is worth watching, I still think this move is counter the largest trend so in this case I'll use more traditional TA to figure out when to take some action...waves are gonna be really hard.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteOf course I didn't include:
Stomes - Miss You
Lynrd Skynrd - What's Your Name
Springsteen - Badlands
Steve Miller - Fly Like an Eagle
and speaking of Eagles... HOTEL CALIFORNIA/LIFE IN THE FAST LANE
all 1978
"83 percent of all U.S. stocks are in the hands of 1 percent of the people"
ReplyDeleteit would seem then that outside of measuring retail sentiment, which sucks and is going to suck, it's pretty much a waste o' your time to be following mutual fund flows.
I think at this point there's sort of an upwards channel formed, so it may go back and test 1086 ish (the area around last Wednesday's open)...
ReplyDeleteBulls better watch out there because if they automatically think it's going to hold, it may not...
Great social history post, CV...
ReplyDelete1978...
July 23, 1978...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehEpMFTP0hs
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is on the verge of creating as much as $300 billion in credit for small businesses as bankers raise doubt about whether there’s demand for new loans and how much will be repaid.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac7hOU.3Frz4&pos=8
Is this idiot for real?
C,
ReplyDeletedon't feel bad either dude, I gave up on the P3 count a couple weeks ago, I couldn't deny the "look" of the ABC X ABC as being "right"
oh well, it is what it is
hope you had a good time crabbing this wkd. not much meat on those things, but they are good. I hope I can get to OC before summer is over, I love hearing some good bands at Seacrets.
Great post today man.
I-man would def. be into seacrets, you walk across this bridge to overlook the first main bar in there, they always have some sweet reggae band playing in the front, a kick ass rock band in the back bouncy floor room.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteI've been to that place...
And what do you mean about not much meat on a crab? Depends on what you catch and how you pick it...
I caught some "soft shell" crabs this weekend... Some people aren't into them but I love 'em...
You fry it up and eat the whole damn thing...
@Amen
ReplyDelete1110... just saying...
I know the OC...
ReplyDeleteBut its been a long time...
Some of the best tubes on the EC... OC can kick if the wind is right.
C,
ReplyDeletePerhaps I should have said a lot of work for not very much meat....but I'm a steak guy so...
truth be told, talking about it, I really feel like driving down to Seacrets right now, getting a table in the water and ordering up a couple frou frou drinks (one for each hand)
mmmm... soft shells
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteThe problem with 1110 right now is that the 200MA is so close overhead...
There's a lot going on here...
ReplyDeleteTechnically, the market is overbought... But there are a few levels that it seems to want to achieve...
I wouldn't mind being wrong about it but I think we'll see 1130 within the next two weeks.
ReplyDeletebtw, the big Cardinal T is this week....so far it seems like any other day, may turn out to be another Y2K...but there is still time.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLKlBGZaRpNI&pos=5
ReplyDeleteStock Buying Hits Bull Market Record at Mutual Funds
personally when I looked things over this weekend, I still see all of this as distribution, there is going to be a major puke out within the next six months but along the way pro's are pushing prices to all kinds of "buy signal" targets to sucker in home gamers and anyone else not paying attention. Look how many potential buy set-ups there were on Friday, they were all over...right down to the inverse H&S
ReplyDeleteoh, and when I say pro's...I'm sure as hell not talking about the raging herd of bulltards called MF managers.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteI don't care if we see higher prices on the indices... But I don't want to see it this week...
I don't want to see the market reverse any of the MONTHLY 3LB scenarios... (especially VIX)...
Friday is the last trading day of the month...
All we probably need is ONE scary day this week...
I just caught AT's comment on the news.
ReplyDeletelol, and no comments on that in the thread from anyone....how curious.
The news makes you lose.
ReplyDeleteZhè jiāng bùshì yīgè hǎo nián.
ReplyDeleteEsto no terminará bien.
Ce ne sera pas bien finir.
Questo non andrà a buon fine.
Af̱tó den tha teleió̱sei kalá.
This will not end well.
I was going to comment on the "news." But I'm a broken record.. It is not the news, but the reaction to the news.. (I'm back, btw : )
ReplyDeleteKind of like...
ReplyDelete"I'm the guy, behind the guy, behind the guy"
Karen,
ReplyDeleteGreat posts. Thank you. These are the type of things I follow and make plans with.
some of you stick readers...any thoughts on the $TRAN dailies?
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteFed Ex & UPS are positive...
They're showing strong growth in delivering packages of foreclosure notices and bankruptcy documents...
Strong market BUY signals there!
$tran looking incredibly bullish, Ben, turning the trend chart up today.. with an upside breakout of the downtrend line, too. (2010, downtrned line.. not the 2008 downwtrend line.) so, it's either a nasty bully trap or the real deal.. let's give it 2 more days.
ReplyDeleteLook at $xal.. makes perfect sense (not.)
ReplyDeletePulse of Commerce Index: http://www.ceridianindex.com/userfiles/file/Index-Report-June-2010.pdf
ReplyDeletebull, not bully, laughing..
ReplyDeletemainly what I see is $TRAN expending a lot of energy in a rush to hit a 61.8% retrace (which it achieved today)...
ReplyDeleteSo it broke through a leading diagonal in the process... I'm sure that means something to johnny...
$djw chart.. another index at resistance today:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJW&id=p36125238923&def=N&listNum=1
another big up for $copper/JJC.. fascinating!
ReplyDeletere: JJC..if it can make 3 closes above 43, that's pretty much to story..
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Industries-Find-Surging-nytimes-3446245046.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDelete"
By most measures, Harley-Davidson has been having a rough ride.
Motorcycle sales are falling in 2010, as they have for each of the last three years. The company does not expect a turnaround anytime soon.
But despite that drought, Harley’s profits are rising — soaring, in fact. Last week, Harley reported a $71 million profit in the second quarter, more than triple what it earned a year ago.
This seeming contradiction — falling sales and rising profits — is one reason the mood on Wall Street is so much more buoyant than in households, where pessimism runs deep and joblessness shows few signs of easing.
Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production. Harley, for example, has announced plans to cut 1,400 to 1,600 more jobs by the end of next year. That is on top of 2,000 job cuts last year — more than a fifth of its work force."
...Exactamundo! This is why multinationals may do well, even as we sink deeper into the pit.
There really is no reason why a superlean multinational can't make money here...
HOG chart looks exactly like SPY chart..if stuff doesn't roll over today (or by wednesday) forget seeing my top again anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of motorcycle sales, I hike in the Big South Fork National Recreational Area this weekend, and motorcycle sales are everywhere on the side of the road. And as I said before, this is a brand new phenomenon here in East Tennessee. I am thinking that some families are now having to choose between the cost of the car and the cycle...and the motorcycle is going....
ReplyDeleteanother breath-taking vista, thanks Bruce.
ReplyDeleteMt. Leconte in the Smokies..
ReplyDeleteJNK tagged its May top today. 39.43
ReplyDeleteAlso of note, hyg:lqd.. oh, and TBT! I think a sell off is coming..
This market could drive us all Batty...
ReplyDeleteEver spent the night up there, Bruce?
ReplyDeleteMonday, July 26th, 2010, 12:00 pm
ReplyDeleteThere is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully. Anyone who managed to read headlines around the U.S. Treasury's latest HAMP report card last week would likely have thought the program a huge success –- with more than one media outlet trumpeting impossibly miniscule re-default rates among permanent HAMP mods.
Surprisingly, even a few trade publications –- media outlets that ought to know better – took the “low redefaults!” theme and made screaming headlines out of it last week.
At HW, we chose not to run with the HAMP redefault numbers except to note that Treasury officials had added them into the latest report card. And this choice was made with purpose: we knew these numbers were fake. Nobody gets a 1.7% redefault rate 6 months after modification –- not even Uncle Sam — and any media outlet reporting that number with a straight face quite simply doesn't understand the industry it's covering.
The only way to come up with a 1.7% redefault rate is to change how redefaults are calculated. And that, dear readers, is precisely what our government did.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/26/the-new-math-surrounding-hamp-doesnt-add-up
Karen @ 9:52
ReplyDeleteAnd is there something that the government should be doing about any of that?
DL, but it IS the government's doing.
ReplyDeleteI-Man:
ReplyDeleteNot in that particular cave...and there is now some kind of eastern white nose bat fungus that is killing bats..most of the caves in my area have restricted access to cavers until this is over....
Karen,
ReplyDeletethanks for your thoughts on the sticks on $Tran, that's how I was reading it as well but I'm not a stick pro like some of you are. If it closes above 4467 while the DOW closes above 10,450.64 we get a dow theory buy signal.
While that's "bullish" I'd also point out the last time we got a buy signal from DT was in March, so it lasted until it didn't anymore.
EVERYONE AND THEIR COUSIN IS CALLING FOR SPX 1130. Guess what that means.. : )
ReplyDeleteOh, my bad...
ReplyDeleteI meant the lodge.
No. But we have lots of people from my alternate universe days that come and stay with us to hike or canoe or whatever...most don't climb...
ReplyDelete....What I'd like is to sponsor a chainsaw party after the winter is over (like a tupperware party), but I think I wouldn't get many takers..
interesting from alaidi
ReplyDeleteYellen says raising LT inflation objective to 4% is risky. Even if Fed dares raise objective to 2.5% or 3%, it would be ugly for USDX $$
Fed's inflation objectives....lol, these morons are still worried about inflation
ReplyDeletefools....with Phd's though.
uup is either in a freefall or making an inverted right shoulder.. left shoulder begins at the end of 2008.. i've seen uglier R H&S that have worked..
ReplyDeletekaren, yes, I'm watching UUP, not acting though...still watching,... boring.
ReplyDeletere: HAMP
ReplyDeletedelaying those figures coming to light is so meaningless and at the same time so very typical.
I love being a part of the soap opera, it's faketastic!
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
ReplyDeleteSo, what's the VIX doing now?
Well first, the VIX is close to its June/July support line. The actual support for today is 23.2 ... if it falls below that, Fear levels will drop with sentiment improving for investor buying.
But, there is also a bit of caution surrounding the VIX's Oscillator and Relative Strength right now.
Why is that?
It is because the two indicators are showing a positive divergence. That means that you should keep a careful eye on the VIX as it test's the current support line. With two outstanding divergences, it will be an important test ... see the chart below.
1937 All Over Again
ReplyDelete[However] Perhaps most profoundly, back then the economy had not been on continual fiscal and monetary stimulus for decades as we have now. Back then we may truly have had a "multiplier effect", where incremental spending from borrowing led to 1.6x returns; whereas now, as I have analyzed recently in the Peak Debt post, we may be approaching a point where incremental fiscal spending has very little impact on growth. We borrow $1 for each dime of growth so to speak, digging a deeper grave.
Do read my 1:39 link!
ReplyDelete"We are left with a troubling question: what policy moves can we count on to get us back to normal? Until we get on that path, the stock market cannot be expected to return to a secular bull market. What policies "work"?
To borrow a phrase from Clinton, it depends upon what the meaning of "work" is. "
@karen (ben- you'll like this)
ReplyDelete"There is no other way to say this: we’re being lied to. Willfully.
http://www.hermes3.net/2010.htm
The T-Cross of July 30, 2010:
The T-Cross of July 30 is cast for the moment when Pluto aligns with the Ascendant (at left in the chart below, at 3° Capricorn 16, in Washington, DC). This position, with Pluto only one minute from the Ascendant in the first house, demonstrates the way in which a country may seek to project its power, here specifically through Pluto's media: espionage and secret codes, including computer codes, and extremely well-crafted propaganda. Why cast the T-Cross chart for Washington, DC? Because by now the USA has boxed itself into something like the Macbeth role of the corrupted, conflicted, once-admired hero whose outer image and personality (first house), money (2nd) and communications (3rd) are all at odds with spouses and partners (7th house), financial obligations and events of death and transformation (8th) and authority and the law (9th). Choosing that emphasis, out of many that matter now -- and with the understanding that the USA is not trapped in any tragic fate, but can still choose to free itself and heal...
our whole tax system needs a fix but everyone knows that. I always found it beyond stupid that a couple that has an AGI of 374k found themselves in the same top marginal bracket as the couple making 3.74 million.
ReplyDeleteand spare me the nonsense about anyone over 250k blah blah blah. the reality is in a lot of metro areas a family of four with a gross income of 250k is middle class at best.
the middle class get hosed hard in our current set-up.
man, this T cross is getting a ton of media coverage, I find that sort of surprising ,most people think E-wave is some crazy voodoo, I can only imagine the internal reactions of the masses when they hear about the astro stuff.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteThe average joe probably can relate a lot easier to astrology than e-wave...
and there is no more middle class...
ReplyDeleteObama is destroying it (all the while trying to hitch himself to the UPPER)...
Movin' on up...
Trading Volume Leaves Plenty to be DesiredU.S. Markets are open. 2 hours and 5 minutes until close.
ReplyDeleteTrading volume is underwhelming, so far. Half way through the session and fewer than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. The light volume can often lead to exagerated moves among stocks. Though participation is lacking, the low volume action is consistent with trends of recent weeks and may be reflective of a lingering sense of uncertainty among investors. (breifing.com)
Volatility Sonar Report from today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv#p/a/u/0/ACS5lN_C_WM
"investors"... Ha!
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletewho needs volume when you can say things like
based on forward p/e's compared to the last 20 years stocks are so cheap!
@ben
ReplyDeleteOne big trader buying Oct 18 puts... With the spread on futures to cash with a 30-23 spread...
13k at 12.5 cents... (Not that expensive)... $162,500
Sounds like "The Squid" trying to get some sheep to follow...
Watch what the OTHER hand is doing (DISTRIBUTION IN EQUITIES)...
That's the thing that I don't like about OPTION MONSTER... They always make it seem like "someone knows something"...
For all anybody knows... That SOMEONE is just playing around with heaps of cash trying to get the herd running in a certain direction...
see look how efficient markets are, WSJ headline:
ReplyDeleteUS Stocks Climb, Boosted By Housing Data, FedEx Outlook
I mean, after all, in rational markets such as these, who would worry about the trend in housing data, or those pesky revisions when we have this month of "great" (prelim) figures, not to mention, we are pacing what we were doing in 1960's for home sales and like, there was, like, a lot of cool music back then, so that's like...groovy
right?
C,
ReplyDeleteit's hard to say, even I make trades that big on a regular basis, of course, I don't have any followers like GS, I'm never on tv, and I also don't have a pony-tail.
there must be power in the najarian ponies, there has to be. sort of like the chuck norris beard:
http://www.chucknorrisfacts.com/
$copper is the new $gold
ReplyDeleteFWIW-
ReplyDeleteThe RSI on $SPX (daily) is about 61.5%...
The last two times it was this high was at the January highs of 1150, and the April highs of 1220...
what are we the three musketeers today?
ReplyDeleteon a three month chart.. i use RSI (3).. it and MACD are have neg divergence on $spx and spy.. just sayin : )
ReplyDeleteall for one and one for all? LOL
ReplyDeletemore likely we are the three bears with the market as our goldilocks..
@karen
ReplyDeleteI kno...
There's a gap down at 1069-1072 just waiting to get filled in...
It'll probably do it all in 90 minutes time...
ReplyDeleteSell off into the close... Fill gap tomorrow morning on the open and rally right back to where we are in this "psycho" market...
http://www.hussman.net/
ReplyDelete"If you exclude the bubble valuations of 1995-2007, the current valuation of the S&P 500 is near the highest level ever observed in history. To expect valuations to expand from here is to rely on the sustained resumption of bubble valuations that have ultimately been devastating to investors"
...If you haven't read the Hussmeister yet today, this might be a good time...
the beginning of the...
ReplyDeleteMaterials Get Undercut
Mon Jul 26 14:30:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
The stock market has slipped a bit so that it now trades at the lower boundary of its afternoon trading range.
Amid the stock market's slip, the materials sector has moved into the red to trade with a 0.1% loss. It is the only major sector in negative territory. Fertilizer and agricultural chemical plays like Monsanto (MON 56.50, -1.87) have become heavy drags on the sector.
Bruce.. why does that waterfall look frozen??
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletere: 3 bears
I thought about going long last week but I just never pulled the trigger. Am I good enough to scrape the top of this rally when I can plainly see the larger trend? Eh, maybe....but probably not, so I just sit in cash. this market has been a beast to trade since the start of the year imo so when it's like this I'll let enrique be the hero.
The markets are taking that as a bullish sign...
ReplyDeletewas just staring at the faz chart.. it looks like an obvious trip sub 11 in play.. attempting a second guess, i can only think it is too obvious.. but, i have already learned.. I am not smarter than the market : )
ReplyDeletebruce,
ReplyDeleteprechter has offered some extensive research on valuations of stocks over the last 8 years and he makes a lot of similar points as Hussman on that front about how not cheap things are. it's why I always laugh at guys like Doug Kass and his blabbing about 20 year average forward p/e's. Anyone calling stocks cheap today based on valuations from 1980 on needs to widen the lense and snap out of their drunken optimism trance.
the valuations from the 90's until today say much about social mood, sort of hard to deny this, and when the dividend is this low on the S&P it's clearly capital appreciation on the minds of the net of market participants, so this will eventually reverse, because that's what moods do, there aren't feedback loops, else trends would extend forever.
push the sentiment indicators like AAII aside during a period like this, the markets show actions, those surveys only show intentions at the time the survey is conducted.
hey look at this from the EWI message board today, if only they actually listened to the answers to questions when they apply their own counts:
ReplyDelete"Can 5 waves down be immediately followed by 5 waves up?"
Five waves down followed by five waves up at the same degree indicates a change in trend at higher degree. In other words, the five waves up may be part of a larger A-B-C structure.
Andy and I had a good laugh at the STU Friday DOW update, they run with the wrong count till the bitter end!
Karen,
ReplyDeleteIt looks frozen because it is...
shot in the middle of January...I carry my camera everywhere we go...my IT girl says I have 6 gigbytes of pics on my computer..
ReplyDeletebruce, on that hussman piece.. the exchange between congressman garrett and bernanke..
ReplyDelete"It's important to understand that historically, the Fed has never actually "created money" out of thin air. What it has always done is purchase Treasury debt, paying for that debt by creating "Federal Reserve Notes" (see the top of your dollar bill). When it has purchased other types of securities, it has historically done so using "repurchase agreements." These enable the Fed to sell those securities back at a known price, even if the security itself was to default. By restricting the vast majority of its purchases to U.S. Treasury securities, the Fed has always operated under a budget constraint: Congress has always had the sole, Constitutionally enumerated power to authorize the spending that creates government liabilities, and the Fed has merely affected whether those liabilities were held by the public in the form of Treasury debt or in the form of Federal Reserve Notes (money)."
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI've summed up that para many times in the last two years
the Fed's primary role is to foster credit expansion. simple enough.
I ignore most people as soon as they say "printing money" because it is immediately clear they don't know where money comes from, and I don't buy the argument that it is "easier" to explain by just saying they print, what it is is factually incorrect.
i cannot believe how quickly this market day has drifted by.. we are nearly in the final hour.. that hussman was one of the best ever, imo. http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc100726.htm
ReplyDeletetrannies are "off the highs" gonna take some push now to get the DT buy signal by the close....
ReplyDeleteagreed, that was a great hussman, I think his best effor was debunking the cash on the sidelines paper, it came at a great time in 07 and was very spot on.
ReplyDeleteBruce, but in this case, they have effectively flushed the house with cash... in mirage-like manner and the future looms.. theoretically, there should be a run, i.e., short squeeze on the dollar as it would be needed to repay debt and leverage.. at least that is how my little mind grasps it..
ReplyDelete'We now have corporations sitting on a mountain of what seems to be "cash." But in fact, they are not holding cash. They are holding a pile of government debt that was issued during this crisis, which somebody has to hold until the debt is retired. Corporations just happen to be "it" in this game of hot potato. Bernanke and Geithner have done nothing but incur public losses in order to defend private interests. This is not skilled leadership - it is misappropriation." Hussman
ReplyDeleteOne push coming up... at your (I mean, "our" service)...
ReplyDeleteBullion, coin dealers call for investigation of U.S. coin blanks supply
ReplyDeleteis this a record for lowest volume of comments on a market day?
ReplyDeleteIt's not even the PPT anymore...
ReplyDeleteIt's the RFT (rally fabrication team)...
@karen
ReplyDeleteWhat do you expect when the market is just a daily jerkfest?
How can ANYBODY be interested in this?
an interesting Diana Olick article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38384149
ReplyDeleteppt?
ReplyDeletewhy not just say what it looked like, we closed that gap at 1108, looks like near term now it wants to act as support.
oh, that's boring, yeah, it was the PPT much more interesting, and it can generate posts for zero hedge.
I-Man is just trying to figure out wtf the trend is today.
ReplyDeleteAll the volume is on the downside smacks...
Overall its so whippy the second a trade starts to work, its done.
Have to be really, really, good on the entries to make dough today.
Guess I'll try to catch the ramp, and then the trap door imminently afterwards in the last 8 minutes.
Only thing I'm hearing is how bad bartiromo looks today, lol.
ReplyDeleteI'm not watching it, nor was I ever a fan.
I just read DR today, I fail to see how there is much significance in the cap gains tax rate going from 15-20%.....
ReplyDeleterather, an allowance for a larger than 3k in realized losses would be significant....as for the 5% increase on gains
what gains
and
for whom?
We ALWAYS run higher into the close, rolling my eyes.. so why don't i jump on that bandwagon? (rhetorical question !!)
ReplyDeletelook at $tnx on a 60 min chart and then on a daily..
ReplyDeleteand i beg you to look at JNK on a daily on a 6 month timescale.
ReplyDeleteI'm back. I see the SPX is still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). There are still four days left in the week though. Funny how the reversal price is very close to the fibo .09 (from high) of 1110.02.
ReplyDeleteI see TNX couldn't hold 3.00% either.
ReplyDeleteGoing running...back tonight...
ReplyDeleteBest of luck from the salt mine.
all we have left in the United States "leadership" is the majority accepted belief that problems can be solved (all problems) by insisting that numbers improve.
ReplyDeletenumbers are honest, counting rarely is.
If you forget that, the world you live in is nothing but a grand illusion.
And Karen, I have been a fan of Hussman for many years...
ReplyDeleteCaught the ramp, and doing a method air as we speak...
ReplyDeleteStill looking for Animal Chen tho...
Have you seen him?
@Amen
ReplyDeleteThat 1110 weekly close you're talking about was the day after the flash crash (which happened on a Thursday)...
Thats enough for I-Man... thanks Mr Market.
ReplyDeletethis might be of interest to some:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/money-supply-divergence-tms1-vs-tms2-vs.html
WHo am I kidding... theres about to be some nice action on the vert ramp...
ReplyDeleteMight have to drop in real quick...
11.5% move in a major equity index in 3 weeks time...
ReplyDeleteSigns of a HEALTHY market there!
don't forget your helmet...
ReplyDeletenew home sales: http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2010/07/25/cv-vs-carlsbad-new-tracts/
ReplyDeletebut in Laguna, another 7.5 million in unpaid loan amounts went up for auction in addition to this new OCEANFRONT short sale listed for $5.5:
"This short sale sits on a peninsula-like promontory, which positions the home to benefit from both ocean and coastal views.
The crazy part? The home directly next door is also for sale and asking $35 million. Those are some pretty differing comps!
The house to the right of the marked home with the red roof in the photo below is going for $35 million"
http://lagunahomes.ocregister.com/2010/07/21/new-oceanfront-short-sale-5-5-million/7289/
No vert.
ReplyDeleteMaybe next time.
Legg Mason 1Q Net Outflows $23.1 B
ReplyDelete4:01 PM ET | Dow Jones
Going to the gym
ReplyDeleteSee you all later on...
Dow Theory buy signal was confirmed btw.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how the market will react to that news.....errr, wait a second.
Really great news:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/bears-go-into-hibernation-stock-short.html
Investors are exiting bearish bets on global equities, pushing bullish wagers on stocks to a two- year high versus short sales, according to Data Explorers.
The firm’s long-short ratio has risen to 9.5, having surged from 5.75 in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse intensified the financial crisis, the London- and New York-based securities-research company said. The reading is the highest of the data that goes as far back as July 2008.
"BP's Hayward to leave as CEO; Russia job in works
ReplyDeleteOfficial: BP CEO Hayward to step down in Oct., take job with company's joint venture in Russia"
...I knew it! Siberia!