Who knows how the BLS will manage to fanagle this one?... As for CV, this "team" is the only I'm interested in seeing get pink slips...
Anyway, if the man in the "E-I-E-I-O" Suite needs any help on how to do a TEAM firing, this is how it's done!
But you'd have to toss in this guy as well...
That video is, at this point, ancient history, but it's needed in this moment as we are soon likely to hear the same person tell us why the next round of spending the wealth of future generations to feed his bosses ego is so necessary at this juncture...
To bring to further along the story line, here are the same two protagonists in another encounter:
For all the "non-PHD's" out there, I'd like the Chairman to explain the BREAKING NEWS: caption that is on the screen at the (2:31) mark... "Fed might respond by raising rates"...
Now... Can you jive that with this story?
Namely, that BlackRock (custodian of the Maiden Lane 1 portfolio) is actively rolling off interest rate hedges...
Jan 29 Hedges
March 31 Hedges
"As the cost to roll and retain these hedges is negligible, especially since taxpayers are paying the cost of carry, this kind of lack of fiduciary prudence is cause for alarm. Either the Fed is convinced there is no chance in hell rates will ever go higher, or it is perfectly happy to risk impairing a $28 billion portfolio from a spike in interest rates."...
Further on the subject of Maiden Lane...
On April 2, 2008, Chairman Bernanke and "then" New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.”.
Now we find that some of these, namely HG-Coll Ltd. 2007-1A, were in fact CDO's and mortgage-backed bonds & that more than $40 million already had been reduced to less than investment-grade.
The law states the Fed is not permitted to lend unsecured. To anyone. PERIOD!
Per Sections 13 and 14, the Fed also can't buy anything without a full faith and credit guarantee.
It's probably going to take a PHD to explain to people how credit default swaps qualify under that (which is, of course why you have MAIDEN LANES in the first place). The Fed set these up and then "lent money" to them to dance around The Federal Reserve Act.
Forget about the "legality" of what is being done... Let's talk about the consequences of the custodianship... If they're trying to save a few pennies by not hedging the portfolio against interest rate hikes (which, with a FED FUNDS RATE near zero would mean that even a quarter point hike would blow the portfolio to smithereens), then it basically means that rates are on hold... FOREVER... (and probably "double secret QE2" is coming soon and frankly, has ALWAYS been in the cards)...
Of course this may not be all that sinister... One could re-establish these hedges at any given moment...
But it tells you something about how these charlatans operate...
Be careful out there!
Pretty funny - and sad - to watch Ron Paul spin circles around Beniccio. Pretty funny - and sad - that anyone still gives any credence to BB, O, Timmy.
ReplyDeleteQE 2 oo
ReplyDeleteTick tock tick tock...
ReplyDeletearrgghh watching futures inch higher before the release.
ReplyDelete-125k
ReplyDeletebig deal
can we move on already
@McF
ReplyDeleteI know right?
"when I look at the market, it looks like they've priced in armageddon"
ReplyDeletesteve liesman
bwahahahahahahahahahah
These NFP days are like a friggin' cattle prod...
ReplyDeleteThe civilian labor force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage
ReplyDeletepoint in June to 64.7 percent. The employment-population ratio, at
58.5 percent, edged down over the month.
Within professional and business services, employment continued to
increase in temporary help services (+21,000).
In June, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm pay-
rolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours.
U6 16.5 down from 16.6
When CV "listens" to LIESman, my first instinct is to "price in armageddon"...
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteNothing must look like armageddon to a guy who is PAID to shill for the Fed and the Administration...
c,
ReplyDeleteit's just funny, in 2008 after having dropped as much as we have from the peak thus far (and it's not really much) they would have said:
"this is a healthy correction"
the S&P isn't even down a full 8% for the year and that's armageddon
idiot
but, we better get used to it, as one of the themes is the nets willingness to buy the dips a long way down.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDelete"Tutto Sommato" (all things considered)...
Cv would be quite content to see a rise and rally here today (if they can muster the courage to put one together)...
I'd have NO PROBLEM holding shorts into the weekend if they can gun this thing up 12-18 handles...
Very good piece.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=amxKVlW5p1XU
U.S. Versus China
Today, manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is about 166,000 -- lower than it was before the first personal computer, the MITS Altair 2800, was assembled in 1975. Meanwhile, a very effective computer-manufacturing industry has emerged in Asia, employing about 1.5 million workers -- factory employees, engineers and managers.
Hardly conclusive employment news.
ReplyDeleteSchizophrenic indecision day ahead.
Good videos CV, thanks!
I am glad I am not THAT GUY.
ReplyDeletejames altucher needs to get himself together...is he trying to look like a slob?
ReplyDeletefunny how all the pundits can see with such clarity that "everyone is a pessimist" yet they could identify at all that the sentiment surveys nearly across the board were hitting record extremes on the bullish side in April.
By the way, the above link is 7 reasons why the S&P is going to 1500.
ReplyDeleteSince weekly hours dropped companies are not in need of hiring employees to take up the slack. Also I thought a 0.1 increase/decrease equated to 225k jobs. So would that mean NFP(-125k)-Temp(21k)-WH(-225k)= -371k decline?
ReplyDeletegood morning! CV, i know you are quick but your posts must take a lot of time to put together.. are we paying you enuf??
ReplyDeletei think i'm most interested in watching gold and miners today.. also wanting to exit my oil short completely.. the futures make me crazy : )
ReplyDeleteWhoTF is james altucher?
ReplyDeleteanother cheerleader?
i've never heard of him nor seen him until yesterday...
writes for the financial times! i've hated him for years! he's an idiot at all times.
ReplyDelete@wes
ReplyDeletealtucher is just some rah rah dude that cramer picked up off the street and gave a job...
okay, okay, a quick easy trade could be drv..
ReplyDeleteHe's dopey and nerdy enough to make himself appealing...
ReplyDeleteThe "appeal" equation goes something like this...
First there were "MILFS"
Then there were "NILFS"
And from that you get "NIL2GSPF"
GSPF = get stock picks from...
i'm laughing at myself as i look at spx to hit one of those 18 numbers.. then go short again.. 1044? how could we possibly get there from here.. maybe 9s will work 1044-9 is 1035.. yikes.. am i dying to get short or what?! sitting on my hands, i promise. not stabbing my thigh with pen, tho, Andy!
ReplyDeleteLocal news spin on NFP...
ReplyDelete"You have to remember, 225,000 census workers stop working so without counting them, the numbers would have been much better..."
This news guy is a NAILTS!
(news anchor I'd like to shoot)
@anon
ReplyDeleteTell him to keep fucking that chicken...
factory orders coming up..
ReplyDeleteanon, 9:42, that's hilarious, of course, we counted census jobs as +'s before, so it only makes sense in the GIB that we'd ignore them when they go away.
ReplyDeletethe exogenous cause model is more than alive and well, it dominates the thinking of nearly everyone.
another etf to check (via stockcharts arthur hill this morning) DBB.. he's thinking dbl top.
ReplyDeletesomewhat interesting on jeff immelt:
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/2010/07/02/ges-immelts-attacks-china-and-obama-company-disavows-comments/
I'm loving this song lately:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpv8-5XWOI
@karen
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Obama, on hearing Immelts comments, called Rahm into the Oval office and asked if he could fly Immelt back (like McChrystal), and fire him...
...the words of the ceo do not reflect GE's view?
ReplyDeletehow can that be?
spin control, i guess
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI'd appreciate any comments from Jesse and Sinclair that "explain" in their own kind of special way, how gold gets rocked as hard as it did yesterday with the dollar down like that at the same time.
I could use a laugh on a Friday.
...yeah O is big on firing people - McChrystal, Liz Birnbaum, Chris Oynes...
ReplyDelete...said he would fire Tony if he could, but, not to worry that will take care of it's self, he is toast
...i guess it makes him feel potent...man of action...
...why doesn't he fire Timmy, and Bernochio?...
Pain in the ass for Obama that just won't go away... gotta love it!
ReplyDeleteimmigration leads to beheadings
Ben, just for you!
ReplyDelete"The metal bears and bullion banks certainly get an 'A' for effort in this most impressive 'shock and awe' smackdown in the gold bullion futures. I was getting concerned about this sort of attack given the recent things floated out in the press about gold and its relationship to external events.
More importantly, it helps us to understand the context of this sell off, which looks like the banks 'threw the kitchen sink' at the futures market over growing concern about the potential for a breakaway rally, and the physical offtake at the Comex getting out of control." (Jesse)
and sinclair's take: "The gold banks piled on the Comex paper exchange, therein scaring the hell out of the super leverage guys, taking gold down hard."
ReplyDeleteoh Karen, that was easy, lol!
ReplyDeleteFactory Orders Down 1.4 Percent in May
ReplyDeletejust a slower expansion folks- move along
"Wes said...
ReplyDelete...yeah O is big on firing people - McChrystal, Liz Birnbaum, Chris Oynes...
...why doesn't he fire Timmy, and Bernochio?..."
Because Timmy and Bernochio fit into his domination plan!
@Wes
ReplyDeleteI think he tried to get Angela Merkel fired last weekend...
They're still trying to explain to him why that's not possible...
the comments on that immigration article were interesting!
ReplyDeleteSwitzerland should be branded a currency manipulator.
ReplyDeleteLOVE that song Ben
today, I'm still scratching my head over how treasury was able to unload a billion shares of Citi at an average 4:03, not saying it was impossible, but it just goes to show that there were a lot of dummies buying at the top in April, it's the only time they really could have been selling them in any meaningful way to get that average price.
ReplyDeletebut hey, sloppy altucher says he's the only person that's optimistic.
Nic, it is a great song isn't it....I've got some sentimental attachment to it as well.
ReplyDeleteFrom my friend at MS just now: Trader Rule- Its OK to be wrong but its NOT OK to stay wrong. Guess our guys never heard this one.
ReplyDelete(in reference to MS's interest rate forecast)
So the econ data was bad yet somehow the market has managed to stay slightly positive. Can't have armageddon before the holiday weekend. Especially since the Senate and House will be back in their hometowns where J6P can complain in person.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDelete...not to mention shoot bottle rockets up their ass!
"just a slower expansion folks- move along"
ReplyDeletehehehe, and some would have you believe that calling for a double dip or not is somehow "a trade"
Hey! I never heard that song! LOVE it!! So sweet!
ReplyDeletebut Ra wait, I thought bad news meant more QE?
ReplyDeleteI'm so confused.
:-)
AR, you are being to sound like one of those tin hat fellows.. : )
ReplyDeleteHey karen, wanna borrow a pen?
ReplyDeleteI keep checking the Daily RSI's on Bucky & the Euro...
ReplyDeleteDespite the amount of correction this far (price wise), they both still seem like they have "more room" to go (strictly from the RSI perspective)...
I think we've got further to go off yesterday's lows (on the updside) be prepared to short if you are so inclined....we only had about an hour to take action near 1130, doubt this is going to be much different, not with the selling pressure that is out there.
ReplyDeleteGLD is at its lowest RSI in over a year, but still has not reached EXTREME levels...
ReplyDeletethere are a lot of fibo dates that come together toward the end of next week, maybe we grind around slightly higher until then....
ReplyDeletenot a bad tune... a little poppy for I-taste
ReplyDeleteI-Man... no! obviously wishing I had bot drv in the 7.70s this morning..
ReplyDeletened - 0
ReplyDeletebra - 1
You'll be able to get some lower...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69453582456
ReplyDeleteI think even BEARS are a little exhausted at this point...
ReplyDeleteNot in a way that they want to "cover shorts" or are scared of a COUNTER rip...
Instead, just tired (going into a holiday weekend)...
Everyone knows that the PRICES that equities need to adjust to haven't been achieved, but BEARS might be willing to "call a truce" until next Tuesday, when...
THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES"...
There is a message to be found in how the mkt responded to the data this morning...
ReplyDeleteof course, for every luke warm bearish sentiment data you get extremes like that % of stocks under 50 day moving average like Nic put up the other day....those seem to have been decent for at least some kind of bounce, but big trend is down.
ReplyDelete"karen said...
ReplyDeletethe comments on that immigration article were interesting!"
Yeh, I read some of them. Jan must have a full staff thinking of stuff for her to say 24/7! She just won't back down.
I lived in southern AZ in the 70's. We use to ride our dirt bikes in the desert, chasing jack rabbits, exploring old mines, old military bombing ranges, stuff like that. One time we found a boot with part of a foot in it. Later we found a Border Patrol and told him where we saw it... they didn't seem to care. Some of our outings, we'd see trucks full of mexicans driving through the desert at higher than normal speeds or just a group of them walking carring water jugs. Was a problem then but now some of them carry guns so I respect her aggressiveness on this issue, even if she stretches the truth.
@McF
ReplyDeleteJeez (on that chart)... The base jump from April - May looks like El Capitan...
Karen
ReplyDeleteWait until you see people camping out at the representatives local headquarters to lodge complaints. Slowly but surely people are waking up.
...and I'm not the tinfoil hat wearing kind but do see the games that are being played.
Which just goes to show you...
ReplyDeleteNothing like a little 15% drop in equities to put everyone in a pissy mood...
So when does QE2 happen? Before the end of the year?
ReplyDeleteManny
@Amen
ReplyDeleteHow many of these incumbents do you think want Obama "stumping" for them on the campaign trail as election day approaches...
My feeling is that Obama is going to have more "golfing days" than he'd originally planned...
i'll tell you one i don't want to buy.. vxx.. dopey etf.. got $5.5k out of it yesterday and if i'm ever tempted to buy it again i will slit my wrists first!
ReplyDeletealoha! leaving the mine early for the holiday weekend, leaving conditional spxu orders should spx pop up during the rest of the day.
ReplyDeletey'all have good weekends wherever ya are.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteLast night, CV was "kickin' it" with some RED STRIPES (in the "I"'s honor mon)...
Note to karen:
ReplyDeletePens & razor blades OFF LIMITS until further notice...
You're starting to sound like Glenn Close...
let me re-write this one:
ReplyDelete"Nothing like a little 15% drop in equities to put everyone in a pissy mood... "
Nothing causes a 15% market drop quite like everyone's pissy mood.
Manny,
That would seem pretty likely wouldn't it? QE2 before the end of 2010.
anon @ 10:34, interesting.. i also lived in AZ for a time.. there have been some frightening, perhaps drug related, murders toward the south.. a older rancher that might have just been in the wrong place (his home I think) at the wrong time..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteVXX blows, not to mention, it's an ETN, not an ETF. if a bank blows up, so could it, and you lose, while volatility skyrockets.
how bad would that suck.
"there have been some frightening, perhaps drug related, murders toward the south"
ReplyDeletethat was Wachovia....
@Manny
ReplyDeleteQE2 is probably already here... You probably just don't know about it yet...
You see... All those things like "TARPS" will forevermore just be treated as slush funds...
would someone just pull the rug out from crude so i can call it a day! just give me $70, pls.. tho i may hold out for $65 again, laughing.
ReplyDeletepeeps watching RUT?
ReplyDeleteanyone here bought a new car recently?
ReplyDeleteif so, I'd be interested to hear what color you picked....
ReplyDeleteyes, ben, you are right, an etn... there is a difference : )
ReplyDeletemy friend bot a truck recently.. white. my husband bot a truck last summer, also white. my neighbor bot a range rover recently, white.. that's all i can think of right now.
ReplyDeleteI'd handicap QE2 in this way...
ReplyDeleteAny stimulus that does manage to get through before the elections is going to be highly targeted...
Labor Labor Labor
The union vote will be protected at all costs (at the risk of losing favor of whatever fringe there is)...
They're going to have to circle the wagons on this one and hope for the best...
It's going to get more divisive than ever...
Just thinking outloud... time to sell FAZ?
ReplyDeleteGood run up since the 21st.
@McF
ReplyDeleteI bought a new truck last year... And my mom just bought a new car a month ago...
Both were white...
3 white cars....ok. thanks.
ReplyDeleteany others out there, let me know.
In the coming years look for "muddy" colors to become more popular, greens, browns, mixes of those.
ok, five whites....and all within the last several months....curious no?
ReplyDeleteOptimism isn't gone yet....5 white cars....
as an aside, white cars are hard to keep clean, especially on a farm CV!
looking at uup.. yesterday actually turned the trend down (13 crossed 34); no what.. either it picks back up on tuesday or... i could buy it for a bounce but it doesn't move much anyway (will those be famous last words?)
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteneighbor bought a black Challenger, don't think they come in many colors.
well mine is a deep metallic gray.. i'm a practical girl and prefer the understated.. i think some of those whites i mentioned were just a factor of what was cheap on the lot!
ReplyDeleteForget the farm...
ReplyDeleteThe driveway in the house in Maryland has a mature cherry tree over it...
First you get the cherry blossoms (which are beautiful), but then they fall off, then the fruit berries come, then the birds come eat the fruit and crap on your car...
okay, i'm on my third replay of 'hey, soul sister' : )
ReplyDeleteI've got a blue car, but I bought that in 05.
ReplyDeleteand birds, last summer left the moon roof open and got a nice little surprise inside the car, lol.
@McF
ReplyDeleteYou need to look at the 5 whites from a different perspective...
These are coming from MARKET BEARS who are "optimistic" that they have prepared themselves to survive P3...
great song....great summer song.
ReplyDelete"nice little suprise"
ReplyDelete(straight from the birds "moon" no doubt)...
CV, LOL! isn't that the truth?! my friend's house is in the path of some dang seagulls! i hate parking there during the day.. the night is a different story! (hysterical now.)
ReplyDeletewhoever bot tsla at thirty isn't happy.. what's that trick the issuers have to keep it at a certain price.. it's some overhang thing.. anyway may stay around 20.. and in six months lock up over.
ReplyDelete@K
ReplyDeleteYou short?
Why wait for 1044?
you could've done that "18" number 1026 or CV's 1030 already today :)
the dollar needs a bid, seriously..
ReplyDeleteremember a few weeks ago when we said the euro would correct as would the dollar, lol
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for dollar re-entry in the not too distant future, deflation is hardly over.
I'm pretty sure that a lot of people here have way out-traded GS on the Euro and the Dollar this year.
ReplyDeleteObama to announce $795M in broadband grants
ReplyDeleteTo allow for high speed internet access in rural areas...
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/posttech/2010/07/obama_to_announce_795_million.html
In a similar story... The PORN CHANNEL has announced that it is adding "Hillbilly Porn" downloads to its category selections...
from wave principle
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteread my (10:24)
ECRI drops to -7.7%. Yeah things are rosy alright.
ReplyDeletejust re-read that CV.. but that rsi on the dollar could be positive divergence..
ReplyDeleteanon above, i am notably short crude.. just thot i could have taken another turn with drv for a day trade since it seems to like me so much.
organic fuji apples are the best!
ReplyDelete@K
ReplyDeleteeveryone like you so much :)
even when you don't change your avatar
CV, another thing.. try RSI (3) on the shorter term charts.. 3 months or less.
ReplyDeletehere we go.. exactly what has been on my mind: BP
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6611RF20100702
ned - 2
ReplyDeletebra - 1
@karen
ReplyDeleteI kno...
I just tossed that out there for perspective (because I tend to look at FOREX moves "pricewise" and usually ignore other momentum indicators)...
Bottom line (to me) is this...
I've said many times before that I have this theory on currency and commodity moves to "make moves" over holiday weekends (where some markets are closed and others are open)...
4th of July qualifies...
I'd expect today's move in Eur-USD to, AT LEAST, mark a wave top... If it consolidates later, we'll see...
But I kind of expect to see the the dollar strengthen and euro weaken over the weekend... (by the time equity markets in the US open on Tuesday)...
That might be the time that a "9" handle is put on SPX...
At that point, the threshing back and forth into earnings season can commence...
I think most BEARS would be happy to "call it a day" on "minute 1" of a decline in the SPX at around the 992 level...
Then, let financial earnings play out, let the "yammering" about EARNINGS ARE HOLDING UP play through the high profile techs (Apple, Google, etc.)...
Then pull the plug...
We'd be at least halfway thru July by then...
$NDX is on track for 10 straight closes below the open. First time in its history. Had 9 straight on 03/30/94
ReplyDeleteAnyone look at the details of NFP?
ReplyDeleteHours worked - DOWN. May revision to private hiring - DOWN.
LB's guess is that with $gaso at 1.99 we are probably about to enter retail sales deflation if we have not done so already. Retail results depend heavily on gasoline prices.
Nic,
ReplyDeleteQID BABY !!!
(in honor of Steve Barry)
We are close to the end of this downward swing.
why aren't any of us talking about what is going on in the muni markets???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fns.usda.gov/fns/key_data/april-2010.pdf
ReplyDeleteFood Stamps
MoM +310771 +0.77%
YoY +6672477 +19.77%
Green shoots baby!
Deflation
ReplyDeletethat's what the job numbers say to me.
Hourly earnings down for the first time.
Hours worked down says employers have some room to take up slack from current employees and won't be hiring soon.
Ben
ReplyDeleteTrue. Especially since states and locals are cutting everything they can to try and have a budget for the next fiscal year.
wonder if we can take out yesterday's lows.. i have 2 bad short positions, qid and dxd that i want to dump.
ReplyDeleteAR... what's the ETF for food stamps?
ReplyDeleteAnyone watched yesterdays' greenspan on cnbc? He spent quite a bit time in explain capital gain effects. He suggested stock price moves economy.
ReplyDelete@McF (11:33)
ReplyDeleteLMAO
wondering if 9500 would stop this fall.
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeletewhy dump your short position since we believed it is on downtrend and not over yet? Are you anticipating a better short entry?
Thanks!
@Amen
ReplyDeleteWhat's the ticker symbol for the 3x ETF on FOOD STAMPS?
@ McF and AR
ReplyDeleteSo muni's would be good into the next year? or longer? I just trade a few market ETF's and don't follow that stuff. What ye saying?
@ K
lovely pic :)
When today is over, LB likes corporate bonds and high yield over Ts for a bit. It's time to hedge those long bond positions, and risk on credit will be much safer than risk in equities/commodities.
ReplyDeleteCorporate balance sheets are strong and interest rate risk is low. It's time for a bit of LQD, HYG and even JNK. JNK is already up today. Munis are the high risk arena, along with emerging market bonds (repatriation risk).
LB
ReplyDeleteIs there a ticker for Munis aka an ETF that tracks Munis? Does Markit have an index for them?
CV and Anon
ReplyDeleteTicker symbols are AK47, C45, 9mm, SOSG...
@Amen
ReplyDelete@ 30O6
BRAZIL OUT
ReplyDelete"AmenRa said...
ReplyDeleteCV and Anon
Ticker symbols are AK47, C45, 9mm, SOSG..."
cool, already own some... and a shovel!
Let's see. C, BAC, GS, WFC, JPM, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, RIMM, AIG, FRE, FNM all wish the day would end sooner rather than later.
ReplyDeleteTrading Diary,
ReplyDelete(1) "Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are designed to achieve their investment objective on a daily basis meaning that they are not designed to track the underlying index over an extended period of time."
(2) "Typically, the longer you hold a Leveraged or Inverse ETF, the greater your potential loss. Accordingly, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs may not be suitable for investors who plan to hold positions for longer than one trading session. "
(3) I don't trust this market.
(4) I need to raise cash to split with husband.
Lastly, even tho i got some QID in the 16s.. I also have some in low 20s.. cost basis 21.36..
My DTO, on the other hand, is up 13% or so..
JNK is up today.. no wonder since it's paying out .32 again in July (reportedly.) ex-div was yesterday.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteFigure this... (But first show me your PHD)...
Crude is down over a percent...
At the same time, an array of trannies are down... (as well as the entire index)
FDX
CSX
AMR
CAL
Airlines are getting hammered!
What is this? Your coming out party?
ReplyDelete:)
Amen:
ReplyDeleteMuni ETFs: SMB, TFI, MLN. Lots more...
Wave 3 of minute 1 has started for the airline sector...
ReplyDelete"Ladies & Gentlemen, please store your tray tables and assume crash positions"...
I-Man, how were you to recognize me on the beach this August!? This foto is only two weeks old.. i prefer the 25 yo one, naturally : )
ReplyDeleteNLY still green today.. people looking for yield.. also, two new posts there: http://www.annaly.com/blog/
ReplyDeleteI would have recognized your aura...
ReplyDeleteJokes aside, its going to be September that I'm down there.
We flipped our kauai trip to aug, and san clem to sept.
"Where are we now versus a year ago? From the Fed’s decision-making perspective, we think it is unchanged to worse. Capacity utilization at 74.1% has bounced off its recent lows, but it is still no better than the cyclical low of the 2000 recession. The unemployment rate is exactly where it was a year ago, though this is primarily due to a mass exodus from the labor force (the number of workers no longer in the labor force has increased by more than 3 million since last year). And the core inflation rate looks like it will soon be called the core deflation rate. "
ReplyDeleteI-Man.. very smart! September is much better.. kids back in school.. guaranteed sunshine.
ReplyDelete"I would have recognized your aura..."
ReplyDeleteI bet Karen has a delightful aura, with all that beach walking.
LOL... Yall are always guaranteed sunshine... what is it, like 325 days a year?
ReplyDeletePelosi: Unemployment Checks Serve As "Job Creator"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/07/01/pelosi_unemployment_checks_best_way_to_create_jobs.html
"It injects demand into the economy," Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said of unemployment checks.
"It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name."
Pelosi calls unemployment checks a "stimulus" that is a "double benefit" helping "those who lost their jobs" and at the same serves as a "job creator"
"It's impossible to think of a situation where we would have a country that would say 'we're not going to have unemployment benefits,'" Pelosi said.
If BP gets the relief well in business, there will be a big squeeze.
ReplyDelete"It never rains in California, but girl don't they warn ya... It pours, man it pours"
ReplyDeleteI-Man.. June gloom hasn't left.. it is our coolest summer in 20 years.. All of July may be gloomy as well.. ha! west of I-5 that is. The ocean is warm at least and the color is exquisite!
ReplyDeleteK.,
ReplyDeletePerhaps you should travel until So Cal warms up for you?
CV, she is out of her mind! Has the US hit bottom yet?! And, what Greenspan said about the market yesterday had me in shock.
ReplyDeletePelosi = 3rd heartbeat from the Presidency...
ReplyDeleteGo figure THAT if you were not scared out of your wits already...
LB, warmth I have no lack of.. blue sky is all, laughing.
ReplyDeleteAnother unpleasantness I am noting is that the rev etfs aren't gaining much upside momentum with this downtrend. if anyone follows that..
ReplyDeletewhat do you wavers think of this down leg?
crap missed some of the muni discussion...pza is one ETF muni, and hell no am I saying muni's should be ok, look how expensive it is getting to insure muni's, there is major trouble brewing there.
ReplyDelete@Ra,
You still holding that July put?
I hate twitter. Completely blown up because Brazil lost.
ReplyDeleteI am going to catch some rare sun and come back for the last hour. Laters
Liquidations by European energy hedge funds. Plenty of supply out there, this is one falling knife that I have had enough of for now.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afvNYuAuNzjA&pos=5
Nic! you are so funny! i hadn't noticed because i only get new tweets when i refresh..
ReplyDeleteK,
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for long entries rest of the day...
ahhaha Nancy Pelosi,
ReplyDeleteAs usher might say
O O Oh Oh O O O Oh Oh O O O Oh Oh
Oh My God!
"what do you wavers think of this down leg?"
ReplyDeleteyour comments above this ? support the idea of this being some sort of fifth wave....which means we get a rally very soon, maybe starts later today.
I still question the overall idea that this is impulsive, the flash crash gives an odd look to the charts of course, we could have had an A wave down, a B wave top and are currently in C down with lower prices to come but small rallies along the way.
Will be interesting to see Andy's charts this Sunday assuming he is able to put some out as he mentioned the other day the downside was a little more than he'd expected. I'm thinking he still hasn't changed yet to the impulsive count down...
i simply cannot get long here.. would rather sit it out.. great bloomberg article on the energy hedge funds.. precious metals next? or was yesterday's drop it..
ReplyDeletePelosi's comments are pretty revealing, thinking that people just take those unemployment checks and spend them in the economy, what a damn fool, those people in most cases can't even service their debt with the unemployment check. Get a clue already.
ReplyDeleteNancy, the party is over!
But my best trades so far today have been on the short side...
ReplyDeletei have been rather right lately about this down legs coming on/holding.. i'm probably overdue to be wrong now.
ReplyDeleteK.,
ReplyDeleteWhen the PM hedge funds blow up it will be really ugly. That won't happen just yet, but the next big rally in BUCKY will take them all out on a stretcher, once we see the truly deflationary data roll in.
@McF
ReplyDeleteSo you're thinking a 5th wave that DOESN'T dip below 1110?
I'd find that hard to grab on to...
karen, you have been money this week... no question.
ReplyDeleteRetest coming. New lows would be interesting but 1014 and 1010 are the levels du jour.
ReplyDeleteI can't help but agree with EWI about the risk in munis. They have a nice chart today of the US Municipal Treasury Swap Spreads, they are at levels not seen since Q4 2008 and rising rapidly. They state:
ReplyDelete..."the initial thrust toward what will eventually be a record widening, far exceeding the 2008 extreme." (which today is only maybe 50-100 bps lower than the 08 peak)
As DL was saying yesterday wealthy people would try to find ways to avoid a higher capital gains tax...go for those munis, lol!
I love losing money in the name of tax avoidance...err,... wait a minute.
I really want to nail a countertrend trade today...
ReplyDeletePut a nice cap on my week.
I'm with karen here... (I think)...
ReplyDeleteI'm hell bent on seeing a 9 handle on the S&P before we get a sustainable relief rally...
Whether that bottom is hit today, Tuesday, or next Wednesday is anybody's guess...
But for CV it's 992 or bust...
Disclosure: Not "playing" for that outcome specifically, but all shorts are riding and will continue to ride (even at risk of reversing upwards)...
Hell, if I'da thought that, I would have covered some yesterday...
CV, you meant 1010, right? sorry.. looking at the chart we gotta get to the 900s maybe today.. at least if this were a real market.
ReplyDeleteCatch 1010 and ride it back to the 1014... exit.
ReplyDeleteGet long again at 1016... and ride it to 1026 to end the week...
Probably a fantasy...
uh-oh.. CV, it always scares me when we do that! of course I didn't see your 1:04 as i was typing my 1:05.
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeletethe fifth wave could always extend right on into the 900's, but if it's a fifth wave your on borrowed time if you are trading that short term. I'm not talking some big rally here, just a simple correction on our way down to lower prices, I'm with Karen, I'm not messing around on the long side.
@McF
ReplyDeleteAll I think about when I hear MUNIS is the squid out there underwriting loans and writing credit default swaps against them...
Therefore, my interest in them is LESS THAN ZERO...
@McF
ReplyDeleteYesterdays low was 1010...
992 is a 1.8% decline from that level...
VIX is at what?
A 1.8% round trip move from yesterdays low could happen within the span of ONE HOUR...
(so there's your TIME expiration)...
But I'll agree that if this doesn't happen by next Tuesday afternoon, I'll start doubting it)...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing your thoughts on your positions. I have not covered yet because I am afraid that I will forget to re-enter later. As many here anticipate sp500 down to 800 this year, it probably suits me better to stick to those shorts until it reaches the goal.
I guestmate the slippage of inverse etf (TZA and SDS) over a few monthes will be bearable. I treat them as cost of the trade, like the time-decay of buying put.
Have a nice day!
can anyone see what $gaso is doing today? I can only get that after the close.. thanks.
ReplyDelete$gaso was 1.99 this morning
ReplyDeleteHas anyone looked at the shape from May 25 to June 8? Looks pretty much identical to yesterday's lows until today - on both SPX and DOW
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteQuestion:
Wouldn't one tend to see a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE (in, say DAILY CHARTS), at the end on a "minute one"? (if that's what this is)...?
Just asking...
Because we're "flirting with" that scenario, but it hasn't happened yet...
C,
ReplyDeleteyeah man, that's all I'm saying, if it's a fifth wave the probability *might not be way on your side to make money in the very very near term (I'm talking over the next week or two)
@trading diary (1:11)
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the "slippage" you refer to will decay less than has been experienced lately because of the increased market volatility...
VIX sub 20 was "horrible" for inverse ETF's
VIX +30 won't be as bad...
I would think QE2 before the GOP takes over Congress, so it would have to happen before year end.
ReplyDeleteTest
ReplyDeleteI sold my shorts from yesterday at extremely small gain. Everyone should probably go short now.
ReplyDelete