Merkel Tells Obama to "stick it where the sun don't shine" Germany Won’t Heed Calls to Focus on Growth
Excerpt:
OBAMA
The G-20 must “safeguard and strengthen” the economic recovery and promote “global demand growth that avoids the imbalances of the past,”
"order to public finances should be restored in the “medium term.”
MERKEL
"Germans are more likely to spend money if they feel the government “is taking precautions” to ensure solid finances..."
Gimme a minute to try and figure out which of these ideas is moronic...
---
Mortgage Bond Prices Rise to ‘Insane’ Records: Credit Markets
Excerpt:
“It’s gotten insane,” said Scott Simon, the head of mortgage-backed securities at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “This is rarefied air.”
U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly fell last month and purchases of new houses tumbled to a record low, underscoring how borrowers’ ability to qualify for financing is limited even as rates drop."
First of all they forgot the "P" in PIMPCO... Anyway, I'm trying for the life of me to figure out how in the world home sales could POSSIBLY be falling (after homebuyer tax credits expired)...
Oh wait... Maybe I found something...
Prison Inmates Claimed Homebuyer Tax Credit, $28 Million in Fraud
Excerpt:
"The United States Treasury Department released a report today declaring $9.1 million in tax credits were fraudulently claimed and received by more than 1,200 prison inmates. Some 241 inmates who filed for homebuyer tax credit are on death row."
---
But I'm sure Chris Dodd & the rest of those hardworking CONgress people are working on "fixing" that today... Well, not "TODAY" today because this is what they have to vote on...
Hollywood Backs Ban on Box-Office Futures in Financial Overhaul
Excerpt:
"Lawmakers negotiating an overhaul of financial-markets regulation are weighing a ban on futures contracts pegged to box-office receipts"
Hollywood, meet Lloyd... "We're from Goldman Sachs & we're here to help you"
---
Or... If you prefer your news on the LITE side...
CNBC (clickables)
- 'Fast' Traders: Horrible Housing—Hold Your Nose & Buy?
- Euro Zone Industry Orders Log Top Gain in Decade
- Hope For Afghanistan: Minerals and Economics
- Obama Approval Rating Slips to 45%: NBC-WSJ Poll
- Cramer ‘Applauds’ Fed Decision
- Why Are There So Few New Homeowners?
- Cool Android Apps
- Trichet Explains Why Soros Is Wrong About the Euro
Can't you just wait to sink your teeth into any of that "hard hitting" journalism?
---
CV was fooling around with some charts yesterday... I'm kind of "fixated" on the idea of this imminent "Golden Cross" (50 day MA crosses over the 200MA)... Technically, I think it's called something else when it crossed DOWN in that fashion...
Nevertheless, it ought to happen within the next 8-13 trading days... It looks like this (potentially) on the chart...
& I'll give you this chart to pull the 200DAY line into full view...
We're coming to End of Quarter...
I gotta admit... I was reading all the HFT riff raff on ZH last evening... It seems everyone on the planet has a bee in their bonnet about "order stuffing", FED interventions, etc.
But it seems to me that something as simple as this "CROSS" could really be much more overwhelming than any of those other market operations that happen in a low volume trend environment...
To many basic fund managers (just trying to beat their "Lipper Averages" - whatever the hell that is), this is the ONLY thing they look at...
50 over 200 and trending up = GOOD
50 under 200 and trending down = BAD
It's something to consider... Big question is... "When do the rats start fleeing the ship"?... Because the way the charts look, you're going to need to put 11 players (all with extra sized Hamburger Helper mitts) in front of the goal to prevent this one from getting through...
C,
ReplyDeleteNice post, the 3 stooges pictures is fitting...and hilarious.
From andy last night:
"[Sidenote: Whenever CNBC tells you that the market is acting stupid because the big traders are on vacation and the juniors are in charge....that's all BULLSHIT. Senior traders always know what's going on."
Exactly....I can tell you all about how I ignored the market on my honeymoon in the summer of 08...but that'd be a big lie of course.
Since 2000 there have been exactly 5 days I didn't think about the stock market and that is in February 2005.
futures could make for an interesting open, but we've got a while yet...a few people are looking for a low to be put in this morning and then that last wave higher.....so we should have a fun day ahead of us here either way.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteI can't really tell...
I added a few shorts right at the close last night (not much, just a little)...
We ought to get 'something' lower, but I'll be interested to see what happens in any area around 1072-1078...
I'm not sure what to expect...
Or it could be the straw that breaks the camels back. Got to make the quarter so traders may head for the exit and take the rest of the month off.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteGoing back to something you said yesterday... I don't think I can use blogspot to have EMBEDS in the comments section (I'll have to re-check that)...
For the most part, I try to keep it UNCLUTTERED as possible here...
Blogger has enough problems from time to time without cluttering up the thing with real-time stock quotes and hit counters and things like that...
If you ask me, unless you have a big commercial site with megalactic bandwith, you're wasting your time putting that stuff on a blogpage...
That is, unless you're a high school teenager whose sharing Britney Spears gossip with her 5 friends...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteYou're exactly right about that...
I'm very undecided about which way it mat break...
To me, since the FLASH CRASH, this whole thing has an "UNCOMPLETED" feel to it...
The COMPLETION ought to either be much higher (1150-1170), or MUCH lower (1020-980) - IMO...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIt would be GREAT to see a monthly closing VIX candle at 32+
C,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure either, but I do feel good about the short position put on Monday because we may not even get up there again.
I'm not in the camp that any significant move lower will stop above 1,000 neither the C wave, the extended fifth, and certainly not a third wave would forecast that outcome, and I'd be highly skeptical of a b wave getting that low with a c up to follow....
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteHow do you like the notion (that I put in the chart), that...
Counting back 50 candles, we're only 8 candles away from the MOVING AVERAGE (50) beginning to accelerate downwards... FAST...
To me, it basically makes that GOLDEN CROSS unavoidable... Because the numbers after the FLASH CRASH would start to get factored into the average...
The only real way to avoid it would be to have a serious rally start... NOW...
Furthermore, the rally would probably have to extend all the way up to 1200 for the cross to be avoided...
Low probability of that happening at this point...
@McF (8;46)
ReplyDeleteApplying that to the GOLDEN CROSS theme...
That could make the case for a "meltdown"...
IOW - If we get enough of a drop, that 50MA is going to slope down hard (won't have to wait 8 more days)...
Then, crossing that may accelerate selling...
CV-
ReplyDeletespeaking of things that are golden- dude- from last night- you must not of checked out my link- where Shooter McGavin steals Happy Gilmore's "gold jacket"-
one of the funniest movies ever made
I don't trade E-Minis...
ReplyDeleteBut we're in a spot that you could either make a fortune or get absolutely killed here in the next two weeks...
That's too much risk for me...
In any case, looking for MINOR ticks on the tape may not be the best thing... One needs a clear view of the larger picture...
C,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I liked those charts you put together this morning a lot....and we know that many techs are going to be watching for that cross....I don't like the MA's for a lot of reasons, but you're in denial not seeing that the 200 day is crucial...there are a lot of really interest fib relationships going on right now as well....Prechter's work on that stuff lately has been aces, some of your fib stuff has been spot on as well.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteOh yeah... I totally forgot about that...
Happy Gilmore was hilarious...
I loved it when Bob Barker beat him to a pulp :-)
ahab,
ReplyDeleteyou better listen to what I say...or you'll pay
and from CNBC-
ReplyDeleteObama Is A 'One-Term President':Investment Pro
that's interesting- I'll have to read further into the article on the appropriate trading strategy for that likelihood- lol
@McF
ReplyDeleteWhat fascinated me was this (happened by accident because I wasn't TRYING to do anything in particular)...
I simply counted back 200 candles (to see where the average was on that day)...
Then, I did a fib relationship between that level and 1220...
You can see that 161.8% of that differential = 903 (where there's a chart gap)...
It just worked out that way...
b22/CV
ReplyDeleteno- doubt that that bar scene was a classic
and Bob Barker is a bad ass
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThis is just idiot conjecture on my part (not the first time - but what the hell - I say what's on my mind)...
I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL, if Obama either ends up not running for a second term or resigning...
Despite his arrogance, his arrogance comes from a particular BUBBLE that he hasn't really ever had to DO anything in his life...
It all seems LAID OUT for him...
Now that people are COUNTING ON HIM to do something (and he's clearly failing)... It might end up getting the better of him...
I wouldn't be surprised to seem him just wimp out and skulk into a corner...
further in the CNBC article I find this-
ReplyDelete"There's a very good chance he won't even be running the next time around. This is only a four-year president," he said.
wow- that never even crossed my mind- even Jimmy Carter had it in him to go for a 2nd term
Johnson is the only one I can think of who said "the hell with it"
CV-
ReplyDeleteyou are are in sync with CNBC article-
same thoughts
I wonder if some kindly, indulgent soul could explain for the benefit of the more slow-witted what macroman today is anticipating in regard to fixed income yields?
ReplyDeleteThanks Bertie
@ahab
ReplyDeleteInteresting... I didn't even read the article...
. . .and here we go- Howard Ruff's advice from the article-
ReplyDeleteThe political unrest is making for a challenging investment environment, one that Ruff said makes the time ripe for gold investment. He is forecasting the metal to rise to $2,300, nearly double where it is now, while silver also will surge.
Overall, Ruff said he's encouraging clients to be "mavericks" and not follow the herd into traditional safe-haven investments, particularly bonds, which he thinks will get hit by rising interest rates.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteObama, to me, is the "quitter" type...
who said Obama gets to decide if he runs again or not?
ReplyDeleteIn any event, I'm still in the camp that says we are at the edge of the cliff and social mood is about to go over the side of it....obama will go right along with it if it plays this way, his popularity will drop like a rock right along with social mood and the market....if P3 happens he doesn't stand a chance.
CV-
ReplyDeleteyou could have been the one CNBC was interviewing and the thoughts would have been the same-
the investment advice I posted- possibly different- but it's interesting that the thought of resignation or no stomach for a 2nd term never crossed my mind-
Hillary Clinton's dream scenario
"The political unrest is making for a challenging investment environment, one that Ruff said makes the time ripe for gold investment."
ReplyDeleteoh brother....
No, the build in negative social mood has caused a challenging investment environment and the response has been political unrest.
Oh
and "long term" ...Gold usually does well during economic expansion....
who said Obama gets to decide if he runs again or not?
ReplyDeleteb22- good point- but- if they let Jimmy run again- it seems to me the party elders will always go w/ their faith in the incumbent
ahab,
ReplyDeletemaybe that's the way it plays...but the negative social mood we face according to the wave cycle will make the 70's look like sissyville.
I will be back in 2012!
ReplyDelete(as soon as I clean up this mess)... I never groped her I just wanted her to take her clothes off
@Bertie
ReplyDeleteSounds to me like MM is trying to, at minimum, say that the bond vigilantes are going to have a say here...
Of course all that will do is prompt the next action by the "wizards"...
So the stakes (all around) are going up...
Which is only what could be expected (because everyone, since late 2008, has chosen the EXTEND & PRETEND route)...
Which is basically equivalent to saying...
"Oh look - a staircase - I'm going to go up and jump off the 120th floor instead of the 5th"
Reminds me of when David Letterman used to toss watermelons off that 5 story tower that was a training site for the Fire Dept...
Morning team... got close to that 1072 you were talking about yesterday Ben... but not close enough.
ReplyDeleteThe NY open will probably push us up through the first resistance at 1084 on the ES, but I'm going to fade it.
The next resistance level is back up at 1093 or so...
Some minor resistance at about 1086 (gann without a plan) might come into play also.
Come to think of it, 1086 might be just off the radar enough to come into play...
interesting times indeed-
ReplyDeletethat's why these folks who are "all in" on the typical recovery-
I don't get it- in my mind there appears to be a lot of reason to believe in total upheaval-
but maybe I'm wack-
AL- I would love to see you run in 2012-
2012 could turn out like the circus show of 1968
@ahab
ReplyDeleteIn 1980, who did Carter have to challenge him?
Morris Udall? Ted Kennedy? (who tried to steal delegates from him)... Jerry Brown?
Both Kennedy & Brown were still "scandal tainted" at the time...
And Morris Udall? BWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!
And Ahab, I'd love for you to make my charts... but I do get to pick the data, just the way it is, or will be ;)
ReplyDelete"I did not have GROPING RELATIONS with that woman"
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteNotice the GAP OPEN right at 1091...
The monthly 3lb confirmation number... :-)
CV-
ReplyDeleteHillary I am certain is looking at her options- maybe her resignation is not too far off-
Al- dude- if you need a chartist- CV, b22, I-man or AT are your "go to's"
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThey're all jumping ship...
- Orszag
- McChrystal (he made those comments because he WANTED out)
- Rahm
- probably Hilary
expect others...
There are some eager sellers this morning...
ReplyDeleteThat usually means they're gonna get burned...
All I mean is, 1080 aint going down in the first 10 minutes...
ReplyDeleteRight?
If DOW gets to 10,000 (ahead of G-20)...
ReplyDeleteI'd expect an attempt at a kick save
CV
ReplyDelete1091.60 is the daily 3LB reversal and anything below 1089.41 is monthly confirmation.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIt's a long month...
But we ARE at the 6 furlong pole (in a 7 furlong race)...
That game was amazing by the way...
ReplyDeleteWe really fought it out hard, never gave up, and just kept swinging.
America.
Banks not looking too healthy this morning...
ReplyDeleteOh, brother, i'll never be able to catch up this morning.. got my coffee tho! Good morning!
ReplyDeletethat's a nice little pop in FAZ..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteYou can chalk that "pop" in FAZ to the latest clause in the FINREG bill (as it pertains to what the banks sold Fannie & Freddy)...
I dont trust this initial move lower one bit... smells trappy.
ReplyDeleteStill have that limit sell out there at 1086 and I'm going to wait for it, unless we take out 1077 very decisively.
Speaking of "coffee"
ReplyDeleteI-Man - How did that "ease off the pressure" tip help with the sludge issue?
The .1107= 1084.77 has been broken, retested and broken again. Up next is the .1272= 1064.64
ReplyDeleteNear Term Pros and Cons..
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI'm going to re-post this (from you - from yesterday)... As a guide...
MJ fibo
.09= 1110.02 (check)
.1459= 1041.83 (retest coming)
.1855= 993.53 (if break below 1040)
MN fibo
.10= 1097.82 (closed below on 6/22/10)
.1107= 1084.77 (will test today)
.1272= 1064.64 (fear begins)
.1618= 1022.44 (KATHERINE)
@Amen
ReplyDeleteAlso...
Did you see how 1022 lines up with the chart I put up today?
It was great advice, Cvienne... re: the presshah.
ReplyDeleteJust went short at 1076... target, 1071.5
ReplyDeletea good post from TWSTB (am I getting that right, CV?)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/2nd-leg-down-in-housing/
funniest line: Credit, once given to anyone who could fog a mirror, is now tight.
debateable: The net result of this was a credit bubble and a housing boom. (A true housing bubble formed only in a handful of places).
And out just as fast...
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteJust float it down gently...
High pressure is only for the italian machines (which they need because the apertures are very tight and keep the fine particles out)...
I see the line in the sand is 1080. How long before it gets bum rushed?
ReplyDeleteApple Might Sell 1 Million IPhones in New Model's Debut
ReplyDeleteall this hysteria- I don't get it- can't you get one in a month or two? I mean really-
and the way I look at it- an expensive phone is one more thing to worry about-
I have a blackberry- company provided and paid for- if I lose it or break it- what do I care? They'll just get me another one. And if not- I couldn't care less-
I have a piece of crap personal phone that works fine
@I.... and I can promise, tons of wavers are counting this 1-2, 1-2 and looking for lower prices immediately...p/c was at 1.36 first thing this morning and yah....not quite to the 1072.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteTWSWB... LOL
In our "heart of hearts" we all love him... A jolly figure... Kinda like a St. Nick...
Are there any Jewish saints? Jesus was Jewish so there ought to be...
CV
ReplyDeleteYour line in the chart at 100% is 1022?
this is a great site (picked up from comments at TBP)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=public:commentary
@Amen
ReplyDelete"How long before it gets bum rushed?"
LOL
Amen, I'm starting a collection of your "one liners"... I'm gonna bind it in gold leaf paper at the end of the year and hand them out as Christmas presents...
that trader mark is a pretty good writer...I don't agree though with the Bear #1 being on the "pro" list...in the end...that's a huge CON...in both senses of the word.
ReplyDelete@Amen (10:06)
ReplyDeletePretty close... It's something like 1024-1022...
I'll have to check...
above I mean Beard #1...the Wizard.
ReplyDeletebeyond bp's ecological disaster...
ReplyDeletezerohedge picked up on the jim sinclair commenter's A Bankrupt BP - Worse For The Financial World Than Lehman Brothers
"If BP does go bust (regardless of whether it is deserved), and even if it is just badly wounded and the US entity is allowed to fail, the long-term OTC derivatives in the oil, refined products and natural gas markets that get nullified could be catastrophic. These will kick-back into the banking system. BP is the primary player on the long-end of the energy curve. How exposed are Goldman sub J. Aron, Morgan Stanley and JPM? Probably hugely. Now credit has been cut to BP. Counter-parties will not accept their name beyond one year in duration.
"Although never really discussed, the world is highly reliant on BPs provision of long-term credit to many core industries. Who makes good on all the outstanding paper that so many smaller oil, gas and electricity companies, airlines, shipping companies, local bus, railway and transportation networks that rely on BPs creditworthiness and performance for? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how this could all unwind. If BP has to be bailed-out, like a bank, the system will have to print even more unimaginable amounts of money."
of course, the conclusion drawn is "turn towards gold at full speed."
How long before the Euro just blows up?
ReplyDeleteGreece CDS at all time wide levels, again...
72bat-
ReplyDeletehow did I know the final words would be to "buy gold"(-:!!!
@ahab
ReplyDeleteHell... Even "Rosie" is on board with higher gold...
His prediction was that the CROSS would be Dow 5,000 - Gold 5,000...
Caveat: That would be in roughly 5-6 years time...
No telling if you couldn't buy gold "cheaper" in the interim (which CV predicts one could)...
ahab -
ReplyDeleteyah, considering the venue...
still, the thesis is worthy of note, i.e., if the well blows out altogether and the reservoir flows freely into the gulf, bp's exposure to fines and damages would be pretty much unlimited. what kind of impact on credit markets would there be?
CV-
ReplyDeleteI'm putting all my money in iphones- there appears to be an insatiable appetite for those
Of course, at that point (when gold hits $5,000), the government will just steal it from you (by saying it is illegal to own it)...
ReplyDeleteThey will "philanthropically & magnanimously" offer you $500 for it...
Then, upon confiscation, de-value the paper fiat they offered in exchange...
Remember: "They're here to help"...
@ahab
ReplyDeleteI'm putting my money into FOOD STAMPS...
Huge appetite for those too...
hey let me be an idiot:
ReplyDeleteThe Fed will never let gold get to $5,000 an ounce.
72b-
ReplyDeleteno doubt- I wonder what would ensue if "hands" are thrown up in capitulation and the words were- "sorry- it's unstoppable- there is no fix"
a turn down right here will put wavers in a tizzy!
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThat was "Rosie" who threw out that number (not CV)...
CV is more inclined to believe that the DOW/GOLD cross will come around the $1000 level...
@McF (10:28)
ReplyDeleteWell all I can say is the banks aren't helping out much here...
CV-
ReplyDeleteI think Denninger has a pretty different take on gold
Mortgage Rates Sink to Lowest Level on Record
ReplyDeletesorry- but I just don't see this as good news- ominous if you ask me-
rates were real low during the depression too- but not too many people were stepping up to buy a home
Morning all
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteEven though I own some gold, I could really care less about it...
You know what I do now? I save NICKLES...
I pay cash for all transactions... Everytime, I get change, I ask for it all in NICKELS...
Thus far, it's the only coin that has not been dampened with regards to it's metal content...
- Post 1982 pennies are mostly zinc...
- Post 1965 quarters are mostly copper (but - WEIGH less than 5 nickles)
- Dimes are too light...
You want to save...
pre 1982 pennies (when they were 95% copper)
pre 1964 quarters (when there was a good silver content)
ALL NICKELS which are mostly copper with some nickel - and are heavy - they haven't changed metallic content since 1946)...
IMO - It's easier (and smarter) if you're worried about inflation to save your coins than run out and buy gold...
Want to start a nice NICKEL collection (under the radar)?
ReplyDeleteGo to your local Indian Reservation and play the "nickel slots" at the casino...
Ask the cashier for $100 in nickels put -em in a jar and walk out of the place (after trying ONE PULL for luck)...
THAT's you're best INFLATION/DEFLATION hedge...
If there's inflation, the price of "melt copper" will go way up...
If there's DEFLATION, the cash value of the coins themselves serve you...
hmmm .. interesting-
ReplyDeleteI have rolls of silver quarters and dimes-
do have some WWII steel nickels that received as change through the years- kept them just because they are interesting-
but haven't even considered the value of the regular ol' nickel- outside of its nominal value that is
@ahab
ReplyDeletehttp://www.coinflation.com/
@Ahab
ReplyDeletethe WW2 PENNIES were steel (not nickels)...
Nickels actually had a lot of SILVER in them...
Containment Cap Was Reinstalled At 7:30 PM EDT On Wednesday
ReplyDelete10:46 AM ET | Dow Jones
why i am doubtful this will do anything ?
CV-
ReplyDeleteyou know what- I think they were pennies- haven't looked at them in a while
Nic-
some advice from BR-
For those of you thinking about trading currencies, I have one word: Don’t!
I knew this dude in the mortgage business who signed up for one of those Forex seminars a while back-
not sure he did anything with it- but they do like hooking people on the thought of making millions in currency trading
@ahab
ReplyDeleteIt's very hard anymore to find a 1964 (or pre) quarter anymore in loose change...
It's worth sifting through pennies though... I find about 1 in 4 of them might be a pre-1982... (which basically makes it worth about 2c because of the price of copper)...
Dimes, or post 1965 quarters are hardly worth the effort...
@ahab
ReplyDeleteIn an article from ZH yesterday, they were talking about FOREX being the next big target for HFT batch order stuffing...
Now - add leverage to THAT...
I'd be scared "s**tless" trying to trade against algo with leverage on that...
"more shoes in this closet than Imelda Marcos had."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/art-cashin-hints-of-double-dips/?
CV-
ReplyDeleteinteresting link-
modern coinage- what a joke
Picasso Portrait Fetches $52 Million; Monet Leads Auction Flops
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ae0hkKSO9EuE
@ahab
ReplyDeleteIt's the current version of the ROMANS clipping coins...
although- I still on occasion receive a silver quarter and dime as change-
ReplyDeletewhen I was a kid my mother use to raid my dad's silver coins- and go to the gas station and buy cigarettes (she died of lung cancer of course)-
maybe I should invest in cigarettes
@karen
ReplyDelete"Monet flops" - LOL "Mon-ey Flops" (more socio-economics for ben)...
Plus - ABC came out with a new show this week... It's called "DOWNFALL"...
The gist... You either win a million dollars or get tossed off a high rise building (I kid you not!)...
Phi 1078.87 (using the low) has been breached. Just saying.
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteIn case of disaster... I have tobacco "seeds" sealed and saved...
You never know... I might become the next Thomas Jefferson...
@karen
ReplyDeletehttp://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/06/downfall_needs_more_falling_do.html
CV.. bizarre.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteThe containment cap does nothing for the other leaks. That's the part being kept under wraps.
have to head out-
ReplyDeleteall have a good day
im surpised by the lack of follow through with gold and silver today? any thing out there im missing exept the flight to quality bs..
ReplyDelete@Mack
ReplyDeleteMaybe they're trying to hold the Euro together thru the G-20 meetings...
Hmmm looks like gold contracts have expired and it's free to run higher.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDelete"it's free to run higher."
Ought to lead to a slow comment day at ZH :-)...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteI don't know, but I'm inclined to believe that we're going to visit your 1064 today...
Which reminds me. At what yield (for the 10yr and 30yr) increases the chance for a failed auction? If yields keep dropping no one wants them. Not for that length of time.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteIMO - The FED will keep buying it and hiding it under the rug...
Oh wait... I mean "households"...
ReplyDeleteThen, if that ever gets exposed...
ReplyDeleteWell then - UNCLE SUGAR just steps in, and ORDERS all 401ks to be liquidated and FORCED to buy TSY bonds...
Good for America! You know...
CV
ReplyDeleteIsn't that still under the "comment" period. or have comments closed?
@Amen
ReplyDeleteOr, they set a NEGATIVE rate on the 2y... LOL
You pay a penalty to hold anything short duration...
Who the hell knows?
@Amen (11:34)
ReplyDelete??? I don't know what you're asking...
"If there's DEFLATION, the cash value of the coins themselves serve you..."
ReplyDeleteIn deflation whatever is widely used as "money" is going up in value because it will be scarce and it's what everyone is going to want...and need.
I'm doubtful we are on a gold standard in the next two years, and I'm doubtful anyone will accept gold instead of dollars as payment on things such as a mortgage or a credit card balance.
"At what yield (for the 10yr and 30yr) increases the chance for a failed auction? If yields keep dropping no one wants them. Not for that length of time."
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest checking the yields on JGB's...we aren't even close.
@McF
ReplyDeleteThat's my point...
So the most logical HEDGE (if you can't decide on the INFLATION vs. DEFLATION issue) is coinage...
Pound for pound... Nickles are the best value...
CV
ReplyDeleteThe UST and Fed were proposing using 401k's to help support auctions.
"You pay a penalty to hold anything short duration..."
ReplyDeletein a P3 this is a promise with t-bills, and for the wise, they'll be more than happy to pay a fee to have a promise of some return of capital.
C,
ReplyDeletedamn....I like also those pretty state quarters they've come out with....
@Amen
ReplyDeleteDoesn't surprise me one bit...
I almost consider it a FOREGONE CONCLUSION eventually...
"The UST and Fed were proposing using 401k's to help support auctions."
ReplyDeleteoh they still are...check out the institute for shared prosperity....that will likely happen at some point.
I'm waiting for the mandatory monthly spending bill, where you are forced to spend a certain amount on discretionary items each month.
@McF
ReplyDeleteQUARTERS
1999-2009: Statehood designs
Metal Composition: 91.67% copper, 8.33% nickel
Total Weight: 5.67 grams
---
NICKELS
1946-2004, 2006-2007: Monticello, Jefferson's mountaintop home in Virgina.
2005: Westward Journey Series including "American Bison" and "Ocean in view! O! The joy!".
Metal Composition: 75% copper, 25% nickel
Total Weight: 5.00 grams (x5 = 25.00 grams)
So... 25 grams of 75% copper 25% nickel versus 5.67 grams of 91.67% copper in the same "denomination" value...
You're a math whiz... figure it out...
I good buddy of mine just got his Phd a few months ago, he lives in Rhode Island, does a lot of work with fisheries, etc and is in the gulf now helping clean, here is something he sent me in an e-mail last night as we were discussing the idea of the gas tax, which I'm way on board with:
ReplyDeleteagree about the gas tax... the public is so naive sometimes... everyone switched their driving practices when it hit 4 bucks a gallon, people were in shock, now we're back to 3 bucks a gallon, with millions spilling into the Gulf every day, and people are mad at BP? We're fueling the demand, ya know? And don't get me started on the lack of environmental analysis... we just did an environmental impact statement on some new fishing regulations, it was 1000 pages long... that rig that blew up was EXEMPT from any analysis, called a "categorical exclusion," by MMS.... they never DID an analysis on it... friggin rediculous...
lol C, I was just kidding about the quarters...I'm with you though on coins...and just to keep it simple, you can't have all hundreds in a real problem situation...good luck getting change.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteI agree too...
100% gas tax would be fine with me...
Maybe many would start converting their cars to NATTY...
ah man, totally off topic but spam email is funny, I got one today from Milf4U: Subject: this cougar is looking for a boy toy.
ReplyDeleteclassic.
@McF
ReplyDeleteI know I sound like a "tin foil" hatter...
But despite the absurdity (and inconvenience) of having thousands of dollars of nickels lying around, it's REALLY the best option for the average person...
Better than GOLD even...
C,
ReplyDeleteI talked with a not so bright client once about natty cars...she said she would never do it because of the smell.
G
I
B
@karen
ReplyDeleteAre you sending McF e-maila again? :-)
-yellow card
@McF (11:59)
ReplyDeleteI won't even bother with a quip in response...
where is everyone today? no noise up in this place. I'd love to see a complete breakdown through to Friday's close....
ReplyDeleteI bought DEC SPY puts on Monday...I see no reason to sell them right now.
@McF
ReplyDeleteNo noise anywhere...
I've been across all the boards...
I gotta roll out for a bit
ReplyDeleteback later
calm before the storm maybe
ReplyDeleteAhab
ReplyDeleteThere are truly evil people that suck people in to FX trading with those kind of marketing hooks and insane leverage.
I agree with BR. You can make money in FX but it is really HARD.
@McF
ReplyDeleteit reminds me of a fantasy football draft...
You have 1:30 seconds to make your pick... And the person in draft position waits and waits for the clock to expire...
I'm always typing in "thinking....thinking" in the comment section (just for a tease)...
@Nic
ReplyDeleteAre you insinuating that most novices will eventually have their "asshats" handed to them? :-)
In FX 90% lose, broker statistics prove it
ReplyDelete@Nic
ReplyDeleteHarry Wanger says... "I never lose" :-)
Haha Lucky Harry Wanger. I have a 50% win rate
ReplyDeleteMagic numbers... That's the key...
ReplyDeleteMoney management. THATS the key
ReplyDeleteItaly out of World Cup...
ReplyDeleteArrividerci....
RSI trendline channel on DAILY SPX is about to get busted to the downside...
ReplyDeleteA federal judge on Thursday denied the Obama administration's request to stay his ruling lifting a moratorium on offshore drilling moratorium until an appeals court could review the case
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/24/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The way I figure it, Florida has 27 electoral votes, Louisiana only 9. Texas won’t vote for Obama (in 2012) in any case.
Nic @ 12:31
ReplyDelete...and not overdoing it on the leverage.
well, i have been having unpleasant personal dealings for the last hour or so. hope to be back now..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteJust the lady I wanted to see...
I think your statement from a few weeks ago is going to be right...
next time C hits $3.50 I doubt I'm going to like it as much :-)
BTW
ReplyDeleteMacro Man had a pretty good post today...
Heavy, but good...
Anyone long apple ... there is chatter out there about antenna probs with new iphone
ReplyDeleteNo long AAPL...
ReplyDeleteI'll go long when it hits $40... (maybe)...
C'mon guys... you only lose money if you sell, get with the program... pffft
ReplyDeleteNic @ 12:47
ReplyDeleteDon't know about the antenna problems.
But as a user, I'd rather stick with Verizon than to go with AT&T.
CV, funny.. i looked at C and BAC first thing this morning : )
ReplyDeleteI have no idea about today's close.. and the spx can't fall five days in a row.. that's inconceivable !
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletei should have gone to trader mark before my last post:
ReplyDeleteMy anecdotal scanning of a myriad of 'swing trading' type of financial blogs show a lot of people antsy to buy here as they believe we are (a) oversold and (b) there must be a mark up into quarter end. I don't know whether I want to respect these folks views or to fade them. We are in nowhere man's land once more... 1040 at the bottom and the 200 day, let's call it 1100+ at the top. It's such a big range and we are almost smack dab in the middle.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/anecdotal-reading-of-trading-blogs.html
@Nic
ReplyDeleteI'm I'm not really joking when I say ("when it hits $40)...
Think of it this way...
MSFT went from $60 to $20 in the 2000 crash...
But really, if one thinks in larger 16 year cycles yo might think of the MSFT share price (versus 16 years), the 1984 price (less than a dollar)...
That would be kind of ridiculous (perhaps), so maybe a better comparison would be to take the AAPLE recent high and run it back in years 16...
Roughly 1994...
In 1994... MSFT was about $4... AAPL reached a high of about $11...
But MSFT was "the thing" back then... So even the 2000 recession never got MSFT back to $4...
To make a long story short... I think you have to count on a 90% loss in ALL TIME share price metrics on a severe recession or depression...
So... AAPL ought to go to $28... But one could probably start buying at $40...
@DL
ReplyDeleteI don't know about cell phones... But I sure know this...
Verizon is 100x better than COMCAST as far as "cable" service is concerned...
CV @ 12:59
ReplyDeleteI have Verizon FIOS. (internet/phone/TV).
Not bad.
What's the antenna issue going to do to the stock though, there were issues with the first iPhone's as I recall...didn't matter. But hey, I clearly know nothing about aapl....I thought I was a smartie selling that last year in the mid 100's after buying in the 80's...left a wee bit on the table with that one...lol.
ReplyDelete@karen (12:56)
ReplyDeleteFrankly... We're so close to another FLASH CRASH scenario at the moment it isn't funny...
I would be VERY CAREFUL going long here...
If the market DOES rally, it's going to rally WITHOUT CV... I'll just be patient and wait for the next wave...
You know what that's all about surfer girl, don't you?
comcast cable blows...I'm thinking about moving to FIOS since we have it installed in the hood now.
ReplyDelete@DL
ReplyDeleteI <3 FIOS...
Raymond Babbitt says... "Comcast Sucks"
New 52-week low for BP.
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDeletePoor guys... Can't catch a break... :-/
random: I watch the Hugh Hendry and Joe Stiglitz video every week since it came out...it's my fav.
ReplyDelete"the notion of a bailout is oxymoronic".....he's a rock star
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteDid you catch that Krugman feature on Newsweek?
I swear... In 2012 "The TICKET" is going to be Krugman/TWSWB
@cv: I wonder where it will end? Could they really go belly up? Will that even be allowed? If so, wouldn't the wider ramifications be pretty dire?
ReplyDeletejust checked fxe on the 30 min.. it's only a little ETF but the downturn looks set to go..
ReplyDeletei really don't want to see xlf back about 14.30, tho.. i'm not liking this day.
Testing.
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 1:09
ReplyDeleteBy "they", do you mean BP...?
One point that the politicians never make is that BP is made up of subsidiaries; the subsidiary at issue is BP North America.
I don't see Obama getting his hands on assets outside of this subsidiary, at least not without the help of the British government.
C,
ReplyDeleteI make a point of not reading any Krugman, he's a damn fool...but I did read Ra's ZH link last night...where ze Germans basically said:
hey krugman...you're a damn fool.
A political hack if there ever was one....
@karen
ReplyDeleteThere was a little more intervention in the Eur today...
Paintball "Hit & Run" job
Yes, DL. BP. Where's "the bottom" for its stock? Can't be zero, can it?
ReplyDeleteI do not think that was intervention in the EUR
ReplyDeleteEURGBP and other crosses hit a big weekly levels and there were a lot of buy orders there.
It ain't all about the dollar ...
@DL
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, I'm sure the British Government would be eager to cooperate and help him out...
You know - As a "thank you" for the nice I-Pod he gave the queen with all his important speeches on it...
I'm sure that's behind bullet proof glass alongside the "Crown Jewels" by now...
Mannwich @ 1:15
ReplyDeleteNo, it's not zero. And that is partly due to the fact that BP is made up of subsidiaries, and the U.K. government is not going to let Obama go beyond the N. American subsidiary.
@Nic
ReplyDeleteYou may be right... You have PM expiries going on as well...
Or maybe some "hedgie" is just blowing up...
HH fix:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/hugh-hendry-i-want-bring-george-soros-down
the elliott fractal guy is based in Erie PA....that's a little different.
ReplyDeletelol, remember remember june 24, when stated on this board was the impossibility of BP going to $0....come on guys.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be interested in getting a MR TOPSTEP fix...
ReplyDeleteMcF @ 1:20
ReplyDeleteIf it were up to Obama, BP stock would be at zero already.
@DL
ReplyDeleteI wonder how close Obama's stock will eventually get to zero?
@DL
ReplyDeleteAccording to CNBS poll today... It's down to 45%
DL,
ReplyDeleteyeah, maybe you are right but,
it isn't up to Obama, nor will it ever be....
just watch the DOW C, president popularity will move right up or down with it....
ReplyDeleteI-Man is getting sliced and diced today... dug a hole, dug out of it, and right back in it...
ReplyDelete@DL: Yeah, the question is, where's the bottom there? I wonder if we're getting close?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, too risky for my blood.
uup and fxe trading tick for tock today.
ReplyDeletefrom Nic's link:
ReplyDelete"The noose is getting tighter and tighter... not in Europe, but in Asia."
Meanwhile, the advancement of the masses (what we might call the sheeple) when it comes to markets is further set back by our dumbass fed chair, as he, in a round-about way, blamed Europe for the economic "issues" that have "unexplectedly" shown their face in recent data.
efficient markets for life