A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
The creditcane weakened over land. It's back over the water again.
SPXSpinning top day (again). 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) was tested (failed again). Back below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1117.51). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (2 more days). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has held (91.80 is next). Still below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.23).
VIXSpinning top day (again). Still below the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (come on you can do it).
GOLDBearish long day. Smells like intervention. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).
EURUSDBearish long day. Confirmed hanging man. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2244).
JNKSpinning top day. Start of evening star pattern? Tested the 50.0% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish engulfing day. Resistance at the SMA(21). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
BPBearish short day. I'd say harami but first candle body is too small. Still below the 0.0% retrace (I guess that's going to get changed soon). Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested 0.0% retrace (failed). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 32.00). Can you say 2.0%? Is the Fed getting worried yet?
Thanks AmenRa!!
ReplyDeleteI love Jamie Coleman ...
Visitor to his blog asks: "Jamie what do you see as the next safe haven after the USD"?
Jamie replies "That has been the problem for 3 years now, I continue to rely on canned food and ammunition"
Stocks and bonds showing highest correlation since 1962:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avr171WDUdiY
"Stocks and bonds showing highest correlation since 1962"
ReplyDeleteIf it looks like capital flight, and sounds like capital flight.....
Ra,
ReplyDeleteGreat wrap as usual man.
McHappy,
def. see the triangle, I'm just not sure about the larger structure overall. Look at Andy's slide 3 and 4, they can be counted like that as well rather than the larger impulsive wave EWI is labeling, and in the big picture I think if we are being objective we have to give it to Andy's count. In any event, lets see what happens tomorrow, we could be all set up for that c of circle ii, in which case it might be a great short entry day. I've slightly changed around my capital allocation price targets and timeline based on how the market played out from the highs last Monday.
good luck man
whats going on right now in the long bonds is the most interesting development by far imo, looks as though TLT is going to move higher so it'll be important to see how this next wave develops there.
ReplyDeleteEWI showing it as a corrective pattern ABC rally with the C wave still mostly incomplete...
Come on July and let the games begin: Spanish Banks Panic Over ECB LTRO
ReplyDeleteLooks like liquidity will dry up even more when the ECB lets their LTRO (442B euros) mature.
Another view on the ECB LTRO: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/28/271711/the-e442bn-question-a-guideline/
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteLOL :-)
You're friggin' hilarious...
Thanks for earlier Iron Worker.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteAlso... From the other thread...
For the record... CV "realizes" what he's saying when he says another 200 basis point reduction in the Fed Funds rate implies...
That's why I'm the COMIC RELIEF... (or supposed to be)...
Jeez this is turning into...
- Rowan & Martin
- Smothers Brothers
- Abbott & Costello
- Laurel & Hardy
As long as it doesn't turn into...
- Cagney & Lacey
- McMillan & Wife
or anything like that...
In the end tho... FOR ALL OF US... We know deep in our hearts that it's just
THELMA & LOUISE
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_doj_russia_arrests
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeletePretty soon we're going to have to start penning...
"MUST... NOT... LET... 10YR YIELD... GET... A "2" HANDLE..."
LOL
I wonder if "Bernocchio" has stocked up on a supply of "DEPENDS"...
ReplyDeleteBTW
ReplyDeleteKudos to WUNSACON (who turned me on to the moniker "Bernocchio"...
CV
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling the 10yr will see a "2" handle in the next few days (as a test).
Where is LB when you need him for a bond prediction?
ReplyDelete@Amen & @Nic (5:42)
ReplyDeleteAmen - I agree with you... A 2 handle yield will likely be TESTED...
Actually - I'm in the camp that we end up seeing some BOJ type action that takes us down into the "1"'s on that within the next few years...
But somebody tells me how that JIVES with Nic's LINK to that BLACKBLOOMIE article...
If you follow the correlation, one would be looking at 1962 10yy's at 3.91 and heading to "14" by early 80's...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DLIvw6mZGBU/StjmMxuZ4WI/AAAAAAAAAn8/GWm6ZxQalqM/s1600-h/treasury-10year.jpg
Basically, I can see BOTH... I can see "1" in the near to medium term... and a BLOWOUT after the dollar finally collapses (which might not be for awhile)...
But according to the article (and the chart), there's a direct path...
Therefore, CV doesn't see the CORRELATION as expressed in the opinion article (ESPECIALLY because Krugman was in it)...
@Nic
ReplyDeleteI think LB would be on board with CV in talking the BOJ scenario...
If her were HERE (which I wish he was - maybe he's in mourning)...
I think Hugh Hendry would say the same...
ReplyDeleteIf only because CV likes the chances that Hugh Hendry is on the OTHER SIDE of any trade that Krugman is in...
ReplyDeleteOK, I realize Frank Farkel failed figuring fractals on friday. If Frank flypes the fractals, losing frangible fractionalism should be > fifty/fifty, forthwithly, the fissility of fractals would facilitate a favorable financial win.
ReplyDeleteAww to hell with it, I'll just bet on what the color of the candle will be tomorrow :) green?
@Ben,
ReplyDeleteI had the triangle starting off the low of Friday. We shall see. I would love to see a drop to below 1040. From an intermediate term perspective (i.e. end of summer) it would be one hell of a ride down.
I really hope it plays out like this. As I've said numerous times in the last couple of days, when that happens bring on the W shaped recovery and double-dip recession talk. Ass hats won't know what hit them after intermediate two of P3.
Nic
ReplyDeleteThe last paragraph in the Bloomberg article is the same thing investors were saying in 1929.
@Frank Farkel
ReplyDeleteAlotta alliteration for an anxious anon seeking antecedent adjuncts...
CV answers (ashamedly)... GREEN
asshat anteriorly tilted...
ReplyDeleteAs in... "strategically dipped below one eye"
>> Kudos to WUNSACON (who turned me on to the moniker "Bernocchio"...
ReplyDeleteLOL. Thanks. Glad to pass around a laugh. (Can't remember whether I heard that first on SlopeOfHope, ZeroHedge, or CR/Hoocoodanode... Sh**, I lurk on too many blogs!)
@wunsa
ReplyDelete"I lurk on too many blogs"
Well, here are some possible ANAGRAMS to psychoanalyze this phenomenon...
- A Knob Monologs... Truly
- A Logbook Only... Mr Nuts!
- A Bogy Skull Moron?... Not!
- A Knob Glumly... No Roots :-(
Case-Shiller could throw a wrench into the bulls agenda tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteFeingold won't vote for FinReg: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65R5SI20100628
ReplyDeleteFeingold Votes His Conscience
CV, I suck at verbal games. But, if reality TV taught me anything, it taught me to cheat:
ReplyDeletehttp://boulter.com/anagram/?letters=I+lurk+on+too+many+blogs
Bears are definitely in charge in Asia tonight.
ReplyDeleteBack in a bit to see if London can put a floor in it.
Good evening! THANK YOU, AR! Well, if you were in Texas, you might be in mourning, too! (No offense to Andy..) I have actually always wanted to visit San Antonio.. and Dallas. If LB would just update Safari or download Goog's chrome I'm sure he could post from the road.. While he might know blondes, I mean, bonds, computer savvy he is NOT!
ReplyDeletewhat i am watching this evening:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_-Y__rh9Ok&feature=related
2 out of 3 isn't bad (pls read!)
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDelete1) shadowstats.com for a more realistic unemployment rate.
2)The US is the best of the worst so bonds haven't exploded yet (it's coming). Right now the only safe places seem to be the USD and the CHF.
3) We're partially under socialism. The programs were created after GD to assist the populace. Some game the system, others don't.
CV
ReplyDeleteI just saw 2.99% on the 10yr. Earlier than I expected.
AR, what state/time zone are you in?
ReplyDeleteCV, some betta for you.
Nice... down at 1064.
ReplyDeleteGetting close to your audjpy target there Nic... having a good night are we?
ReplyDelete:)
Nice trade.
And what do you think about cable? Looking pretty strong to I and I...
ReplyDeleteWorth a shot from the long side in your opinion?
@Nic,
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome.
IW
I-Man if we rally today sterling is really the strongest so cable would be the best long.
ReplyDeleteI was looking for 1.5250 for the reversal in cable so we have some room to the upside
gonna be a fun open at least....
ReplyDeleteChris Christie passes a budget in NJ this morning at 2 am that cuts $11b in spending.
ReplyDeleteInteresting..more signs of deflation.
A new trend starting at the state level?
and no contribution to the pension fund.
ReplyDeletethis guy is a rock star.
Uh oh. McF has brought out his angry bear avatar hehe.
ReplyDeletehe's hungry Nic.
ReplyDeleteAsia markets and European markets were hammered. The 10yr is stuck at 2.99%. Bernoccio is having cold sweats about now.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteIL/CST
Uh oh. The ECB sterilization auction failed (from ZH): http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-ecb-reports-failed-sterilization-auction-demand-fixed-term-deposits-comes-06-btc
ReplyDeletegood morning! need to press some beans yet but thot today might need more attention than others..
ReplyDeleteTrader Mark says, "While S&P 1040 has held as support the last few iterations, I have never heard of a quadruple bottom so if we get there this time (which seems likely) I do NOT see it holding this time around."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/bookkeeping-selling-direxion-small-cap.html
@ karen -
ReplyDeletejeez louise, betta pic #2 has me speaking in tongues.