There's not much change to the S&P and DXY counts, so I decided to take some time on the Gold model. It seems to be very "hot" right now and worthy of some focus. My last large report (Dec. 20th) on the topic noted that $1,026 was an important level to hold--Bears had no case for a major peak until that level was taken out. Alas, it was never violated, with Gold printing a low of $1045 on February 5th.
One of the main reasons I haven't published anything on Gold in awhile was due to the complexity of the model. As the price action unfolded the last several months, I began to have more doubts on previous counts/theories. The work here represents my latest thoughts and a MAJOR recounting of the larger Gold model.
Bottom Line: This market is quite "frothy" right now with plenty momentum. Bullish sentiment is quite high and Speculators are positioned very long, thought not quite as long as they were into the December peak. This would be a perfect moment to "shake out" some of the new length. The medium term wave count also supports this idea as we seem to be in the final stages of triangle pattern--we're seeing the E-Wave of the triangle right now.
@Andy
ReplyDeleteNice work. I have had the Royal Canadian Mint on speed dial for months now for when/if gold ever breaks $1000 - from your charts the end of the D-wave.
Also, not sure if you've got the comments from previous pages but your page 3 chart from last weekend on the bullish case for the DXY has played out perfectly after a correction to 82.90 it skyrocketed. I was very much watching your 82.71 invalidation point. Nice work, again.
(From previous thread)
ReplyDelete@Ben
Yes I am learning. I took your advice and went through the best-of-traders-classroom. As I thought I had it saved on my computer. It is one thing to be on the right side of the trend, it is another to make money on the trend. Essentially would one rather make 30% on the right side of the trend or make 20% 4 times. I prefer the latter without the swings.
I am very much considering signing up for the Financial Forecast Service through EWI. This is why I have been probing for people's thoughts on if the top is in because if the top is actually in, I would like to have access to their counts and when P3 is over. It seems over the years Prechter has had more luck calling bottoms than tops - which is understandable. What are your thoughts on EWI? I know you are a subscriber which is why I ask.
I'm trying my best here to read the chart on the S&P from Friday. Does any of this make sense to wavers:
ReplyDeleteWe have a descending contracting triagle into the close. How the market behaves Friday should determine if we have a minor wave 2 correction or minute wave 4 correction. In other words, was the 1126 on Friday the end of a minor 1 or minute 3.
If it was teh end of minor 1 we should have a strong bounce to around 1150's. 1173 would be our invalidation point.
If it was the end of minute 3 we should have a bounce to 1143 or so. But 1137 could also be the end of minute wave 4. Our invalidation point would be about 1160.
If we drop on Monday, add a small long position.
If we rise on Monday, add to shorts, all in, EU style. :D
mcHappy.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I'm glad you could get some value out of the work. Hope you've made some money.
Great reports Andy, I really learn a lot from them.
ReplyDeleteAndy, I luv gold, as you know.. but wish you'd done a crude report.. (ungrateful wench that I am..) interesting futures tonight.. i know one person that was betting on a bounce tomorrow.. i just want 69 taken out hard.
ReplyDelete68-69 level on crude does look important, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteI think we're setting for one of those "false breaks" on the Euro. I think "they" get it below the 1.23 (previous low) to gun the stops...get a bunch of technical types to sell the new lows...then the market snaps back a bit...in order to washout all the Euro short who just sold fresh lows...
I can justify any scenario at this point.. and it is maddening..
ReplyDeleteNic, did you finish that MeltUp video? I hate those sensationalist things..
Karen
ReplyDeleteI see you like to test new pictures out on Sunday evenings.
If this doesn't bring Leftback out of his cave, nothing will.
Daisy's little black nose is too cute.. makes me miss my little black nosed Baby.. interesting that some furry animal slept on my pool chaise the other night..
ReplyDeleteOn another subject,
ReplyDeletefutures are showing quite a bit of activity for a Sunday evening.
Doesn't auger well for the bulls.
The Kospi is -2.75%, Sydney is -2.3%, the Nikkei is -1.75% and HK is opening over 1.5% lower. Gold is 0.75% higher and the risk trades in the FX market like AUD/JPY are being sold off at an increasing rate. Sterling is being cremated and EURUSD just broke the 08 support level.
ReplyDeleteThe USD is the big winner on the FX markets, up against every other major currency and flat against the JPY.
LB will be in Obama's neck of the woods the next few days.. still, he may not be able to post for a variety of reasons.. and I have no interest in bringing him out of his cave : )
ReplyDeletethe futures tonight can't be real.. can they? i was more or less counting on a big down monday..
That meltup video was exactly that - sensationalist but it didn't make a believer out of me. Imagiflation and asset bubbles more like.
ReplyDeleteI am still in the other flation camp.
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ReplyDeleteKaren the ass is falling out of the currencies, its going to be an allnighter for me.
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is the USD squeeze I have been waiting for... but i love the way it isn't hurting gold. (Nic, some of the others know what a gold fanatic I am.. I keep it hidden.. laughing.. I am so old world!)
ReplyDeleteOh! this is exciting!!
ReplyDeleteHong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index falls 2% in opening minutes
"the ass is falling out of the currencies".
ReplyDeleteYet another technical term that I never knew before.
Don't click on this link if you don't like RED..
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Bucky 87.15 - whooooo
ReplyDeleteBeware of the Euro headfake. Every technician and trader in the ENTIRE world knows how bearish the break below 1.23 is...so, it stands to reason that the break down will result in some kind of SNAFU for anyone who sells the lows....
ReplyDeleteLonger term, I'm pretty bearish the Euro and bullish the DXY...but this one doesn't "smell" right....
Euro below its .1855 fibo of 1.2336. Futures getting slaughtered. I love the smell of carnage. Brokers being told to head to the office NOW.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing if Greece finds a way to roll its debt over on the 19th prepare for an epic squeeze.
ReplyDeleteAT,
ReplyDeletethanks for the gold charts, a lot there to get in to. I'm inclined just to watch that one, at least for now.
Wow, look out below on the U.S. futures.
ReplyDeleteEUR, CHF and now sterling have smashed through the "flash crash" lows and AUD is less than 50 pips off. It isn't looking pretty for bulls.
ReplyDelete113.50 was major support for EURJPY, if we hold below it could be 103.00 next.
ReplyDeleteNew old new news: FT Says Volcker Rule, Given Up For Dead, Is Likely To Pass
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/ft-says-volcker-rule-given-dead-likely-pass
AmenRa @ 10:41
ReplyDeleteAre you implying that there's a chance that they WON'T find a way?
What then was the trillion dollar bailout for?
DL
ReplyDeleteYou ever play three card monty?
I do hope this is not another one of my nightmares. I go to sleep with dreams of carnage only to wake up with futures up 1.5%.
ReplyDeleteAmenRa,
ReplyDeleteI fully expect Greece to default (on part of its debt) at some point. But not in the next few months.
AR, those are the mildest of my dreams!!! Actually, Ben and I have had similar dreams.. i mea,n nightmares.
ReplyDeleteHaha we all have the same nightmares here!
ReplyDeleteWell, if SPX does make it up to 1150-1155 tomorrow, it would become a relatively safe short at that point (I would think).
ReplyDeleteI hope everyone is prepared for INFLATION.
ReplyDeleteI have a late night in store.. driving to LAX soon to pick up my son flying in from JFK.. i will try to be ON TIME tomorrow and not spill any beans!
ReplyDeleteI will be looking for a bounce tomorrow morning after a very quick touch in to the 1110's. I might try a small long trade with every intention of getting out before 1150. After 1150 I'm thinking putting a short anywhere will be extremely profitable as the next wave down should be a doozy and it should start before the end of the week. Look out below indeed! Nic, I check out your blog too.
ReplyDeleteLooks like forecasts are already starting to be revised. Revisions, revisions.
ReplyDeleteWait until earnings estimates miss the mark and revisions start there. Forward P/E's are a great way to determine market valuation you know.
Gold currently is up and holding on. What I would love to see is a sharp down move in Equities ALONG with a fall in Gold. But panic trade from Euro decline seems to be still driving the buying in Gold. Tch.
ReplyDeletePrashant
McHappy @ 12:03
ReplyDeleteYeah, if you can go long at the 1115 level before 10:30 A.M. tomorrow, you should have no trouble selling in the afternoon at a profit.
I've a feeling that many bears will awaken very disappointed.
ReplyDelete