GREECED LIGHTNING
Why this country is brok-o-matic...
It's mathematic
It's riot-o-matic...
Why it's GREECE LIGHTNING
You got some IMF lifters and some four barrel funds
oh yeah...
(Keep talking whoa keep talking)
A cash injection cutoff to last you two years oh yeah...
(I got the money I got I got the money)
There are riots at your door, people don't like bein' poor
You don't um give a shit, cause you're sucking at the teat
With GREECE LIGHTNING
Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go
Go GREECE lightning you're burning up the the Euro pile...
(Greece lightning go Greece lightning)
Go Greece lightning you're coasting through the sovereign trial...
You are supreme, the PIIGS will cream, for Greece lightning
Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go
You got your Merckle/French tail lights and thirty month hell
oh yeah
A Palo(Frilo) island you don't have to sell
oh yeah
You got new pistons, plugs, and shocks You can get off all your rocks
No one's really bragging that your GDP is laggin'
Greece lightning
Oh, and by the way, the deal that was "announced" over the weekend ISN'T exactly a "done deal" yet. It still has to be voted on by the Parliaments of the EU countries... The beat goes on...
And speaking of bad news, the OIL SPILL in the gulf appears to be A LOT worse than most people expect (and could prove to be quite problematic to put a fix to...
BUT STOCK FUTURES ARE UP (rolls eyes)... So just tune in to CNBC to have their people tell you which stocks you need to buy...
----
(courtesy of Andy T - 5/2/10)
Good Evening Capitalists,
The S&P 500 seems poised for more downside over the next several weeks. The next several months are historically a poor time to be invested in the stock market. So, why be in it? Maybe we’ll get another repeat of last year’s stella’ performance across the summer and fall, but why bet large against 80 years of historical performance? Maybe the Fed’s Nuclear amount of easing and money will prevent any meaningful correction yet again this summer…
What will be most interesting in the next several weeks is the influence the Euro has on equities. Last year’s tight correlation between the Euro and equities has clearly been smashed. As of the latest Commitment of Traders, large speculators are holding significant short bets in the Euro. People like Dennis Gartman keep pounding away at the Long CAD/Aussie vs. Short Euro cross trade. When folks like him get all “frothed” up on a single trading idea, we’re usually due for some kind of correction, even if only temporary in nature.
lol C, nice post.
ReplyDeleteyes, stock futures are up, but so is the dollar, in spite of the "bailout news"
@McF
ReplyDeleteBailout or no, IMO, the Euro is going to get hit...
Fact is, the very instant that any resolution is made on Greece, they'll start hitting up P, I, & S
So we've gone from PIGS to, um, urine...
What if traders around the world run from their markets to the US markets for safety? I know our economy is a lie but until the time that's recognized the dollar and indices go up while there is increased buying of Treasuries. They could also go to cash or commodities. We already know how much the US markets are willing to ignore the truth so this lie could last longer than one would expect. JTOL.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking the same thing...
I shudder to think, but you never know...
"US markets for 'safety'"...BBBBBBBWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!
ReplyDeleteIronically...
ReplyDeleteIn the STUPIDEST of all trades...
Paper gold may do well...
morning! i feel completely out of it as I haven't even turned my computer on since friday! that and the futures.. here we go again.. incomes and spending up ??
ReplyDeleteBloomberg.com: Faber says China will crash in next several months.
ReplyDeleteCan these "Anal-yst" be held responsible for just mouthing off headlines if that fails to materalize.
$copper down again...
ReplyDeleteNeverending Bailouts = market rally ad infinitum. Free money for all. Momo Monday back?
ReplyDeleteManny
ReplyDeleteLast Monday left them unsure. Today they're a little tentative. Fingers shaking over the buy button. :)
@Amen
ReplyDeleteI like how it keeps staying UNDER the 1194.18 level...
If it breaks... I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick run to 1204, but I'd bet it would quickly erase that as well (if it happened)...
In January, most of the WAVE peaks & valleys corresponded with FIBO days... (3,5,8,13,21, etc.)...
ReplyDeleteNext FIBO down (.034) is 1178... and that would be DAY 5...
I would not be surprised to see it...
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank joined the international rescue of Greece, saying it would indefinitely accept the country’s debt as collateral regardless of its country’s credit rating, underpinning gains in the bond market.
ReplyDeleteFor the uninitiated this means that the ECB will accept DEFAULTED Greek debt instruments, should it come to that.
More bluntly, if Papandreou's dog drops a deuce in a box and he presents it to the ECB claiming that it's worth $10 billion, the ECB will in fact issue $10 billion in real, honest-to-God Euros against that box - no matter how badly it smells.
That prompted Christoph Rieger, co-head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, to say today’s announcement “leaves a sour taste with regards to the ECB’s long-term credibility.”
The ECB has no credibility to lose at this point as it has now documented that the Euro is worth nothing at all as a currency, since it may be debased at will by Greece through the offering of worthless debt instruments into the ECB's clearing and margining system.
The Euro is now free to descend toward zero, targeting in the intermediate term my Par price-point .vs. the dollar, and likely headed for well below that.
Congratulations Europe, you have now demonstrated that your central bank is and has been issuing dog turds disguised as Euro bank notes.
If Germany has an ounce of sense they will withdraw from the Euro and return to the Deutche Mark post-haste.
(from KD)
CV, congrats on your winnings! must have been a very fun birthday weekend for you!!
ReplyDeleteThe day is still young but, quite frankly, if there was to be a resumption of the bull based on this news I would have expected much more fireworks. The fact the USD and the US markets are marching together also brings me to the same conclusion as last week that we are in the midst of a major trend reversal.
ReplyDeleteThanks k... :-)
ReplyDeleteThe Lobster was 'good' too!
@mcHappy
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree with you there...
SPX could fool around with some numbers between here and 1204 (or 1208 - as Andy T mentioned)...
But I think we're going lower... Nic's TOP survives...
I would not be surprised at all to see this mornings gain wiped out by the end of the day...
Despite equities being up...
ReplyDeleteJNK is down pretty hefty...
I pretty much agree with what AT said in his slides, it's a good time to do nothing if you aren't already short. the risk/reward for going long is just not there imo.
ReplyDeleteAs for the "safety trade", I have a different take:
1. the idea that there is a "safety trade" in any stocks comes out of the old social mood of optimism, which is waning for a decade now as negative social mood grows stronger.
2. the ultimate safety trade will be re-discovered, it's called....not trading at all, and being out of debt.
3. Most debts are based in dollars, the ulatimate safety net is...the dollar (ducking the swings of the gold bugs now)
Once most of the debt destruction is over I'll switch over to the gold camp.
Howdy traders,
ReplyDeleteHad another chart free, news free weekend. I might just unplug alltogether and go rural.
@ Andy
Thx for the hookup, yo.
@ Ra:
I hear your concern on the capital flows into the SPX...
My only consolation:
Watch SPX, watch LIBOR, watch EURUSD...
@BinT:
I did happen to catch a brief segment of Fox News over the weekend, only to see stories of carbombs in NYC, flooding and tornadoes in Memphis, and massive oil spills in LA...
I turned it off.
How long before West TN falls back into the Big River? My grampa, an intensely proud East Tennesseean, always said it was just "dried up riverbottom over there"...
@ CV
Got a new corn bed dug up and harvested my first radishes over the weekend... mmm....
aren't capital flows into the US part of EMH?
ReplyDeleteHaha CV
ReplyDeleteYou are on fire today.
In later news the ECB has said it will "create it's own ratings agency". How bad must you be that Moody's, S&P and Fitch don't even rate you.
Credibility is evaporating fast in the eurozone.
@McF
ReplyDeleteI do think you have to be careful though...
Why?
because you're assuming that when things start to get rough again that people are going to act RATIONALLY (and save)...
If the is ANYTHING that Obama has "taught the world", it is THERE ARE NO CONSEQUENCES FOR YOU ACTIONS...
Sure, it was Paulson that got us started on the road to bailouts, but hell, even most of that money has been 'supposedly' paid back by now...
Where has it gone? Back into the Treasury? HELL NO! It's a 'slush fund'...
The same attitude has nor bled into all the other countries & cultures (ECB), even China?
What started as "Obama will pay my gas & mortgage" has really GELLED into that concept... WORLDWIDE...
Nobody ought to have to worry about anything debt related anymore... Somebody will bail them out right?...
Just sit back and collect your checks... (Hell, play them at the casino if you wish)...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteHere's a sober take on the oil spill...
You ought to read...
FX saying risk off but indices still going up. Correlations are a bit haywire today.
ReplyDelete@Nic
ReplyDeleteBank holiday in many parts of world...
Markets open, but trading like a holiday...
C,
ReplyDeleteI don't think there is anything rationale about what I've laid out. The very basis of the thesis doesn't appear rational to almost anyone: dollar is the worst currency, so get in it! Rational is preparing before things happen, not after. Those things I mention all come about as a result of panic. If people were acting rationally with regard to debt then we would have never had the RE bubble or this rally. I read Liar's Poker again over the weekend, even when that book was written there were major concerns about debt.
Governments worldwide are doing what they always do, acting on the old trend, the one that has already passed, the spending trend. You know it's always the last trend by the time the government is in on it.
As for people sitting back and "collecting checks", if that is what is going on it proves my point, there is no rationale to that at all, and those folks will be forced out of debt and into dollars, this isn't coming about by choice for most...they are all just herding.
I agree with you McF re the dollar safety trade.
ReplyDeleteIt's very easy for people, given what we have been through, to think that it is worse where they are tan anywhere else.
Truth is most places have massive debt but the US is at least deflating its housing market whereas Europe, UK, Canada, Australia, China are still in full on bubble mode. The EUR is 50% of the dollar index and they are in dire straits because they do not have the tools to create a "one size fits all" solution.
I am a big time dollar bull because the US has the tools to fix its problems, it is deleveraging *relatively* well and has the best capacity for growth of any old money currency (outside of emerging markets like Brazil).
Lately the dollar has done really well on good US economic news and OK on risk off periods. win-win.
today is getting whackier and whackier.. correlation-wise..
ReplyDeleteNic,
ReplyDeletethe deleverging is the key. If I were smart enough I'd develop a program right now that tracked deflation in the debts of each currency (euro debts, yen debts, dollar debts, etc), you are long in those deflating the fastest or doing pairs trades and stocks are just an afterthought. This is part of the reason I wonder if the Yen is a great long against AUD, for example.
As for stocks, the DOW yield is so low it's only been seen at tops two times in the last 100 years, 2000 and 2007. At the top in 1929 the yield was 2.9%. Who is looking at us and allocating capital here based on safety, especially if you are trying to "invest" for the "long term"?
@ B22
ReplyDeleteI think the JPY is going to be a very nice long against the AUD, indeed...
BTW, is the Lefty back?
ReplyDeleteI was wondering that too, I'm having LB withdrawal I think.
ReplyDeleteI vote for more LB too.
ReplyDeleteHe probably had a crazy week last week, he had all of that long bond exposed hedged. Look at what TBT did.
If I understand his trading plan, he was looking for a high yield/low price on the 30y on friday. The exact opposite happened.
LB will resume normal service tomorrow. Frantic catch up after four days at a cricket tournament, with resulting physical exhaustion...!
ReplyDeleteKaren, those shoes are delightful, so glad your sexy ankles are back.
I don't know why LB isn't chiming in.. catching up at work perhaps, laughing.
ReplyDeleteLB had tight stops set while on the road, so was out of that trade well before Friday - and remains long bonds.
ReplyDeleteWhats "cricket"?
ReplyDeleteI got my auction weeks mixed up. Next week is the 2y 10y and 30y. I thought it was this week. The announcement is wednesday.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear you were playing. The action in the 30y and the silence had me a little concerned.
ReplyDelete"Glad to hear you were playing. The action in the 30y and the silence had me a little concerned."
ReplyDeleteSee, I just assume LB is thinking about karen when he is quiet.
the market is making it very hard to start the week.
ReplyDeleteLots of wavers were looking for an immediate continuation down to start today, so that didn't play, otoh, we haven't fully retraced the recent decline which looked impulsive despite the "bailout news" over the weekend.
It's likely we do Andy's correction of a correction of a correction chart for a little while here, perhaps all week.
I'm happy to sit and watch at this point.
Yeah, I had a feeling going into the close on Friday that the SPX would trade higher on light holiday vol's today.
ReplyDeleteThats why I didnt get my continuation hopes up, and was waiting for a move back into the 12's.
should get interesting right around 1203-1206 s&p. There are a bunch of wave clusters right around there.
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteand the fibo .013= 1203.94 is in that area.
I was watching 1204, with a throwover to 1206.
ReplyDeleteJNK is trading at a premium to the underlying again today.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know where to look for detailed, day to day market cap or shares outstanding information? I can't find it on the spdr's page.
My idea is that their is a huge amount of money being made by people putting together the junk portfolios, and then selling new shares into the market.
Why would anyone but Johnny be buying junk bonds at a premium? Selling is another story.
This etf could also be distorting the whole market, look at the demand for it.
Junk Bond Sales Set Record as Investors Waiver: Credit Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOWIvAiRJ3LQ&pos=4
Rally has junk trading at close to face value Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/26267320-5620-11df-b835-00144feab49a.html
Jinx Ra!
ReplyDelete(And I didnt even know it was a fib!)
Also S&P Vol A/D= 5.2:1 and NYSE Vol A/D= 2.6:1
ReplyDeleteARRGGHH!!!
This may be the creepiest video ever!
ReplyDeleteOlivia Newton John on Today's Market Action
I-Man
ReplyDeleteI also have 1204.00 as the fibo .01459 (using Fridays close)
Karen
ReplyDeleteEarly MTV days LOL.
"so glad your sexy ankles are back"
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to subtlety and restraint?
(This could get out of hand if left unchecked).
what's the latest on the oil spill? wondering if I might take a gamble on RIG calls....tiny of course.
ReplyDeleteWell, this has certainly become interesting (the marekts, not LB and K but that is certainly interesting as well). Leave for a couple of hours or so and this happens. I'm not convinced by the action. The EUR has been taken behind the woodshed by Bucky. Given bank holidays around the world and the unusual correlations, me be skeptical.
ReplyDeleteMcF @ 1:10
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the chart of XOM around the time of the oil spill in Alaska (3/24/89).
The stock didn't take long to recover.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/albert-edwards-global-economy-to-roll-over-in-six-to-nine-months-time-bearish-for-shares.html
ReplyDeleteBought two S&P contracts on Friday; sold them today. My timing was awful, but managed to make a few bucks anyway.
ReplyDelete@ K
ReplyDeleteFunny story about that song, "Physical"...
I got stuck with that one at karaoke one time... one of those you get to sing whatever song comes up deals...
The lyrics are a bit interesting to say the least.
Hearing I-Man croon "I wanna get animal, animal," equals, priceless.
I-Man: LOL. LB had to sing "I feel like a woman" once... challenging !!
ReplyDeleteLB, the trick is to sing "I feel like a woman" using a pirate voice......
ReplyDeleteIn the interest of Socionomic research...
ReplyDelete"Physical"
Olivia Newton John, circa 1981
I'm saying all the things that I know you'll like
Making good conversation
I gotta handle you just right
You know what I mean
I took you to an intimate restaurant
Then to a suggestive movie
There's nothing left to talk about
Unless it's horizontally
Let's get physical, physical
I wanna get physical
Let's get into physical
Let me hear your body talk, your body talk
Let me hear your body talk
I've been patient, I've been good
Tried to keep my hands on the table
It's gettin' hard this holdin' back
If you know what I mean
I'm sure you'll understand my point of view
We know each other mentally
You gotta know that you're bringin' out
The animal in me
Let's get physical, physical
I wanna get physical
Let's get into physical
Let me hear your body talk, your body talk
Let me hear your body talk
Let's get physical, physical
I wanna get physical
Let's get into physical
Let me hear your body talk, your body talk
Let me hear your body talk
Let's get physical, physical
I wanna get physical
Let's get into physical
Let me hear your body talk, your body talk
Let me hear your body talk
Let's get animal, animal
I wanna get animal
Let's get into animal
Let me hear your body talk
Let me hear your body talk
From the wiki entry:
"The video featured a lusty Olivia, dressed in a tight leotard, working out in a gym with several overweight men, who eventually transform into attractive muscular young men. The gym setting may have been partly an attempt to divert attention from the overt sexual connotations of the term "physical". This was further emphasised by the twist comedy ending of the video, when the transformed men who are now oblivious to Newton-John's advances are ultimately revealed to be gay (this was also a source of controversy; MTV frequently cut the ending when it aired the video, and the sometimes sensuous nature of the video also led to it being banned outright by some broadcasters in Canada and the United Kingdom). The video won a Grammy Award for Video Of The Year in 1983. The song was banned in South Africa for its suggestive lyrics."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_(Olivia_Newton-John_song)
I feel like a pirate...
ReplyDeleteKaren... don't forget - you started all this...
ReplyDeleteEurope's web of debt
ReplyDeleteCheck out the end of the link. No wonder they are trying to bail each other out. Unfortunately they forget what happened AFTER Paulson was given BILLIONS - money well wasted.
Bailouts beget more bailouts.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else read this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/iris-mack/bob-rubin-just-wants-to-b_b_557621.html
My reaction is to be put off that she's sharing this story..
DL,
ReplyDeletere: XOM, interesting. RIG has been pounded the last few, it might be worth a shot here.
@karen,
as is usually the case, the Rubin cuddling story is best told by Bess Levin:
http://dealbreaker.com/2010/04/bob-rubin-do-you-want-to-go-upstairs-and-cuddle/
Those Huffington Post articles should come with abstracts so you don't have to read the whole thing.
ReplyDeletesmn up, bzq up, dollar up... jnk down, but spx up??? dow up?? compq up??
ReplyDeleteMcF @ 1:54
ReplyDeleteThere's also shrimp futures, don't forget.
Alright, right in our area, and not busting through, this might be all it has for today.
ReplyDeleteDL,
ReplyDeleteyes, shrimp futures or go long this company:
http://www.newpig.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/TopCategories3_10651_13007_-1
McF @ 1:56
ReplyDeleteI'm "flat" right now; no opinion as to where the market goes over the next couple of days.
oh dear, thanks for the heads up, DL. i should know better than to use up with LB around, shouldn't I??
ReplyDeleteDL,
ReplyDeleteagreed, charts are "dirty" no clear path for this week, we could be in a downtrend and it's hard to see, we could be on our way to mid 1200's, lot of things conflicting. Flat seems the smartest move.
I'm still short China
And, I'm sick! but i may be able to sell a good chunk of my shipper today.. at a fair profit.. altho if it gets over $5.. maybe it will dbl! LOL
ReplyDeleteBob makes an interesting point about JNK underlying vs. the price. I'm wondering though if it means anything, BND has traded at a premium to NAV an awful lot since it came out.
ReplyDeleteIt's very understated how close you have to follow these ETF's, I think a lot of people treat them like the next free lunch.
C says Euro will rally on Greece Bailout.. did you all see this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/05/03/citigroup-nysec-says-euro-will-rally-on-greece-bailout-are-they-serious/
McF @ 2:00
ReplyDeleteIsn't the German Parliament supposed to vote on the bailout within the next several days?
If so, that'll impact the market.
* * * * * * *
Regarding China, Chanos was evasive as to the timing of the stock market decline, in his interview with Charlie Rose. But he did say that he thought it would be sometime next year
volume sucks again today, we'll get the cash/assets report for MF's soon, should be at all time lows in cash, if bulls are tired now then that isn't a good sign, retail isn't coming back....
ReplyDeleteThe market can set itself up here for a new top without the breadth we just saw the last few weeks when NYSE had over 600 new highs rivaling figures seen in the middle of our last "bull market" as well as 1998, I would imagine a new top will make sentiment ever more extreme toward the bulls, if breadth has divergence as well then all the parts will fall in place much like they did in January, time ratios will be in play as well. At minimum a larger correction should then take shape, this time I *hope we can count five waves though.
DL,
ReplyDeleteChina is in a bubble, I'm quite convinced of that, I'm not really in the position for a trade, so to speak. Also, for the benefit of blogger land, if I lost everything I went short china with, I won't be happy, but I'll be just fine, and back looking at the next trade the following day.
Maybe C will do a thread someday but I read BR's stops post with interest over the weekend. I actually use stops fairly rarely.
Karen
ReplyDeleteThere was an interesting article at FTalphaville this morning about that. Normally last day of the month the dogs do well as portfolios are rebalanced and the story is basically about Fed swap lines and why the dollar didn't do much worse:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/30/216871/fx-gyrations/
McF,
ReplyDeleteThey are a free lunch for the people arbing them, on the way up. On the way down, there are not many people that are going to be 'taking shares out' of the market.
On the way up(in the eyes of the arb fund)-Yeah, sure, I'll sell a bunch of JNK shares, go out and buy the underlying and make the spread.
On the way down- Who buys those shares? In perfect capitalism, someone buys the shares at a discount and then sell the underlying at a premium. In a falling market this is very dangerous, the fund would have to take the risk on of owning the junk on the way down.
Ahhh... stops...
ReplyDeleteI could write a book.
Talk about counter-intuitive psychology...
"i should know better than to use up with LB around, shouldn't I??"
ReplyDeleteWhy? Is UUP up? What else could be up, Karen?
Certainly, the next 5% move in the SPX is down, not up.
ReplyDeleteI'm also trying to get my head around Neely's target of 741, I'd be curious if AT could offer some more insight on how he's coming up with that. the way he counts is still foreign to me at this point.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said before, that type scenario would be welcome by me vs. a P3, in which case there is about a 99% probability I'm out of work and a career.
reverse cup and handle on jnk 10 min chart today.. : )
ReplyDeleteCV @ 2:14
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for the "CDO squared" derivatives to come out.
Thanks, Nic (for alpha link).. but i'm still confused.. every day gets weirder and weirder!
ReplyDeleteMrTopStep good today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VH0dzxIb_w
Bob,
ReplyDeleteindeed, and great post there at 2:12, it should be required reading for people that think we are always in equilibrium. That's how "values" vanish.
@I,
stops have ruined some of my best trades just before the trade worked out in my favor. What I have learned is that they did work for me when I had a shitty count on that I was projecting. I've learned when I'm in that space it's better to do nothing at all. I've got a lot of issues with stops as a matter of fact.
McF
ReplyDelete"shitty count"
Hey, you think you're a senator or something?
Nic, that was fantastic.. really good. thx. but equally scary, in my mind.
ReplyDeletebtw, I hope it isn't bothering anyone, but I had this little personal goal to insert the word shitty into at least 3-5 statements per day.
ReplyDelete:)
Anyone know what the 3x bull Greece ETF is?
ReplyDeleteI hear they might be getting some kind of bailout?
Probably a great trade there...
I believe the ticker is PIG, BROKE, or SHTTY, def. one of those.
ReplyDeleteI-Man
ReplyDeleteOPA
:)
Lara at forexinfo.us has some interesting reads today for anyone interested in using EW for trading.
ReplyDeleteNew to EW? Read this first
Timing your entry
More stop discussion
OPA...
ReplyDeleteThats the one!
The GS crew already put together two of the best tastes around into one trade. They call it the pigs in a blanket, bacon wrapped shrimp- short PIIGS, long shrimp.
ReplyDeletePIB
Now I am hungry.
B22...
ReplyDeleteAre you able to access Reggie's site at work anymore?
It appears my employer has blocked access to his site...
I wonder why?
http://boombustblog.com/
The last "P" well, that's not that simple...
ReplyDeleteI-Man @ 2:45
ReplyDeleteMe neither. Wonder why.
I,
ReplyDeleteI can still get it. I have a few guesses as to why you can't though.
@I
ReplyDeleteThanks for that site. I"ve never seen it before. Looks like a lot of deflation porn in there which is probably why you can't access.
OT: Can never stop laughing when "The End" by the Beatles comes on the iPod. Reminds me of Chris Farley:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNBIyGxV7Ek
McHappy,
ReplyDeleteif you want some extreme bear stuff then read Reggie.
I read a paper from him about two years or so ago on JPM that made me shiver....
pathetic volume on spy and dia.. rsi (3) and macd negative.. this day is ufb.. i gotta sun shower.. hope the market waits for me : )
ReplyDeleteThe guy is a genius. I've yet to find another analyst that can decipher the micro, and put it into the macro, quite like Reggie can.
ReplyDeleteI would really like to read some of his premium reports sometime when my budget permits.
The shrimp idea is old news, RIG is now positive. May as well buy BP too.
ReplyDeleteNic @ 2:56
ReplyDeleteToo bad there's no good way to invest in trial lawyers.
That gap on the SPX 1min chart at 1197 is like a beacon of shining light...
ReplyDeleteToo true DL
ReplyDeleteReggie's "The Doo Doo 32" showed which banks had horrible balance sheets and were insolvent. That was a good read.
ReplyDeleteBankruptcy lawyers. Thats the one to be on:
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/who-knew-bankruptcy-paid-so-well/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook
Having had someone who owed me money go bankrupt this shizzer makes my blood boil
Just print the 1206 already and lets get back to Happy Days...
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteCan you move the camera a little bit? Those ankles and shins have really whetted LB's appetite to see more - what lovely tanned skin....
Did everyone miss me? I-Man, Ra, Nic... how was life with no Report?
I missed you LB! I hope you had fun
ReplyDeleteLeftback.... who's Leftback?
ReplyDeleteI feel the same way, DL.
ReplyDeleteI cant speak for Miss Karen, of course, but I did miss your presence...
ReplyDeleteNow get your ass back to work and give us a FI update.
I gave you the Kentucky Derby winner...
ReplyDeleteMy job is done for the year...
LB will grab some pizza and be back at the close [no trades active]
ReplyDelete@cv: Maybe we should all just hit the track every day instead of the markets? Probably a less rigged game.
ReplyDeleteHey LB,
ReplyDeleteBe sure and grab your pizza from my favorite little NYC local pizzaria...
Its called Sbarro... ever heard of it?
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteThere's a SBARRO at every food stop on the new jersey turnpike...
new low on SRS.. that is wild considering the real state of CRE..
ReplyDeletealright, i was sort of hoping since 3 of us all came to the same conclusion about the range that we'd break out of it, we've been in it now since 12:45. lol.
ReplyDeletea good post at NLY:
ReplyDeleteTo summarize, the perceived chance of a rate hike has been declining as of late, not rising. Given this reaction from the Fed funds futures pit, it’s hard to blame the rise in LIBOR on strong economic growth and the expectation of future rate hikes by the Fed. It’s much more likely that LIBOR is reacting to counterparty risk rearing its ugly head once again. It may still be early, but perhaps Greece is the Lehman of 2010.
http://annaly.com/blog/2010/04/30/WhatIsLIBORAnyway.aspx
@karen: Time for another reverse split on SRS?
ReplyDeleteSbarro's a chain, I-Man. Tons of FAR better hole in the wall pizza shops all over NYC. I really miss the pizza there but my waistline doesn't.
jeff, i think the I knew that! lol..
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 3:42
ReplyDeleteYeah, I never touch the stuff any more.
Had an interesting weekend. Got to the salt mine this morning and the ceiling to my office had fallen in. Got a new computer, screen, will have new carpet, etc. Our lab is right over my office and the ultrapure water filtration system had leaked all weekend, and c'est la vie to the ceiling.
ReplyDeleteBut all is better now. I think. At least I'm not in Nashville, or on the coast. And I read the prognosis on the spill, thanks CV. I bet it will be a real b@@@@ to cap this sucker.
@karen (& I-Man): Oh, sorry! My irony detector must have switched off. Taking things too literally today. Probably my Monday mood and its gloomy outside today.....
ReplyDeleteblack candle for C.. and copper has a nice rounded top..
ReplyDelete@DL: Me neither. Maybe once a month but if I was still living in NYC, I'd probably be eating far more just because pizza is everywhere and a slice is way too convenient. Here, it's hard to get just a slice or two. Have to buy the whole pie and the crust (and pizza) overall just isn't as good. Not even close. Same with bagels. Hardly eat those anymore either for the same reason.
ReplyDeletei think we can infer that LB doesn't watch his waistline.. lol!
ReplyDeleteIt was a Michael Scott joke from The Office... I thought more folks would catch it.
ReplyDeleteDoh!
Karen @ 3:57
ReplyDeleteBetter for you to say that than me.
and, gentlemen, the flatter your belly the bigger your... appears.
ReplyDeletedarn! i wasn't ready for the market to close.. i was just getting into it : (
ReplyDeleteI'd say pretty much the bigger your .... is, the bigger it appears, as well...
ReplyDeleteTomorrow will be most interesting to sift through this sh*tty mess. Sh*tty volume today, sh*tty other markets closed due to sh*tty holidays, sh*tty conviction on the bull side (witness sh*tty bounce back of Goldman Sh*ttysachs), sh*tty news reported as the sh*t, sh*tty dollar and sh*tty stocks rising together, and finally the Greece/EU situation is still sh*tty. Overall a sh*tty day.
ReplyDeleteAn overview Levin would be damn sh*tty proud of. Still long FAZ and FXP - looking forward to bear raids on banks again and China markets re-opening with vengence to rate hikes.
5 day ema still under 10 day.. on the the spy..
ReplyDeletei'm surprised at the sell-off in the miners with gold up and the euro down.. perhaps it was the high price of crude.. but we will see how the next few days play out..
Karen,
ReplyDelete"the flatter your belly the bigger your... appears".
I don't get it.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteSo what do we get, exactly, if we combine your 3:57 post with your 3:59 post?
@karen: Speaking of which, time to go hit the gym and work on that belly thing!
ReplyDeletelol, I came back to see what you all were doing into the close.
ReplyDeleteis the answer 'your belt' karen?
we didn't even break 160 comments today.. let alone 200.. interesting.
ReplyDeleteit's that volume thing..
ReplyDeleteThe Bond Report 5.3.10
ReplyDeleteLB is fresh back from doing 200 sit-ups Karen, which have made his portfolio look considerably slimmer, as bonds of all shapes and sizes were sold off as investors departed the safe positions they had adopted last week. Today was a typical Magic Monday of little significance.
One presumes that the selling was in anticipation of a shining new era in Hellenic Investment, which seems guaranteed to last until next week's long bond auctions, thereby enabling banks to dump a few Ts before beginning another Grecian panic at the end of the week.
Corpies: LQD -0.39%; AGG -0.49%; JNK -0.70%; HYG -0.73%;
Govies: TLT -0.48%; IEI -0.39%; TIP -0.33%
We gave up hedging the Greek Tragedy and sat on our hands. The whole Government arb thing is getting tiresome. Seriously so.
Not sure if people saw it today in DR's but the Weekly ECRI Leading Index Growth Rate is now at a 38 week low.....and
ReplyDeleteECRI is NEVER wrong.
Also, did people read the post BR had from Floyed Norris from page B3 of the NYT?
ReplyDeleteVery interesting observations of social mood there. it appears anyone that can't see that optimistic social mood peaked in 2000 is in denial.
No worries, McF. It's a new Millennium. The old rules don't apply.
ReplyDeletePermanently high plateau....
I know this isnt a nice thing to say, and that it might get me drawn and quartered by his followers...
ReplyDeleteBut I hope that the Oracle's derivative book does him in.
McF @ 4:37
ReplyDeleteI didn't read the article. But no doubt there were a lot of real estate brokers and MBS salesmen who got pretty ebullient in 2005-2006.
I-Man, I was thinking the same earlier reading his GS comments.. "It's business." and that stock was up 2000 pts today..
ReplyDeleteGIB...
ReplyDeleteAll I can say.
And Karen, I was watching GDX a bit today with a wary eye... didnt like the size of the pullback or the dump at the close.
ReplyDeleteAny other thoughts on that?
My eyes keep getting drawn to the bull channel on the daily chart... could it really be a breakout?
I'll be looking at the weekly GDX later tonight.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteLB just bought a rowing machine....