Friday, May 21, 2010

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bullish thrusting day. Still far below 1110.02 (fibo .09) Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. Back above the 233 SMA (1079.31). Also back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1165.87). Trending down on the daily 3LB. Made new weekly low (confirming reversal) and is below the monthly 3LB reversal price. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (barely). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. Weekly chart is bearish thrusting. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish engulfing day. Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. Closed back below the 38.2% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. "Ring ring. Hello? This is your margin call. Sell whatever you have to...again." To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1220.30.



EURUSD
Doji day. Guess they're unsure about the BS also. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Don't be fooled. It still has problems. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish engulfing day. But it didn't close the gap. Now above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Still below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 (oh yeah it's coming). Note: All MA's are still pointing down. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 142.32).


WTI
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed above 23.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.61).
at

19 comments:

  1. CVMay 21, 2010 at 5:08 PM

    @Amen

    You answered my question from the other thread with this wrap...

    Thanks... Have a cold beer! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. CVMay 21, 2010 at 5:08 PM

    To show my appreciation, I'm DOUBLING your salary next week!

    ReplyDelete
  3. McFearlessMay 21, 2010 at 5:16 PM

    Ra,

    thanks so much for the wrap man.

    RR had this to say in his letter today:

    I've been computing my PTI on a daily basis since the early 1960s. In 50 YEARS THIS IS THE MOST DECISIVE TOP (chart below) I can ever remember.

    ReplyDelete
  4. NicMay 21, 2010 at 5:19 PM

    McF Who is RR? did you mean RP?

    ReplyDelete
  5. NicMay 21, 2010 at 5:19 PM

    Thanks Ra-Man

    ReplyDelete
  6. McFearlessMay 21, 2010 at 5:21 PM

    Richard Russell Nic.

    I do read other people besides Prechter, hard as that may be to believe.

    Prechter is my market hero though.

    ReplyDelete
  7. McFearlessMay 21, 2010 at 5:22 PM

    He's also got a P&F of the DOW

    Target: 8,600

    I'm not a huge fan of P&F's but when they work they are typically quite accurate.

    This would match EWI's call for the end of intermediate wave 1. A large wave 2 would follow with all our typical retracement levels.

    ReplyDelete
  8. McFearlessMay 21, 2010 at 5:44 PM

    Nic,

    Just read the posts at your blog, gotta love when people get on you for taking profits. Last I checked that never put anyone into the poor house.

    I got a lot of similar comments on AAPL, as one of many examples.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AmenRaMay 21, 2010 at 5:59 PM

    Funny that Cramer is calling the ramp into the close BS. I figured he'd be all for it and how bullish the market looks.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AmenRaMay 21, 2010 at 6:02 PM

    Normally with 3LB the weekly would trend before you would break the monthly reversal price. Thanks to the "flash crash" certain moves have been accelerated.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AmenRaMay 21, 2010 at 6:06 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AmenRaMay 21, 2010 at 6:07 PM

    CV

    I don't care if the month closes at 1095.62. It's still a reversal :o)

    ReplyDelete
  13. AmenRaMay 21, 2010 at 6:33 PM

    Also what was the deal with the rumor that GS had settled with the SEC?

    ReplyDelete
  14. mcHAPPYMay 21, 2010 at 8:30 PM

    I'm seeing nothing now. I cannot see how this can't be the end of a 2. I'm seeing a solid A-B-C from 1055 with a 5-3-5 for A and 5 waves up for C on the 2 minutes.

    HOwever, if we break 1095.09 I'll be selling out because I can't see any other count that works. Anyone care to enlighten me?

    ReplyDelete
  15. karenMay 21, 2010 at 11:09 PM

    i'm livid! Chop AR's salary in half! no $wtic chart..
    did LB ever show up when i left?

    ReplyDelete
  16. NicMay 22, 2010 at 12:02 AM

    No LB :(

    McF - Doug Kass was on fast money tonight:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1500618765&play=1

    ReplyDelete
  17. AmenRaMay 22, 2010 at 12:28 AM

    Karen

    Leave my salary alone. Now refresh the page :o)
    Enjoy the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  18. qqqqtraderMay 22, 2010 at 1:54 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  19. qqqqtraderMay 22, 2010 at 1:58 AM

    Weekly Scorecard

    Indices
    S&P 500 1,087.69 -4.23%
    DJIA 10,193.39 -4.02%
    NASDAQ 2,229.04 -5.02%
    Russell 2000 649.29 -6.44%
    Wilshire 5000 11,227.32 -4.52%
    Russell 1000 Growth 484.44 -4.18%
    Russell 1000 Value 560.89 -4.46%
    Morgan Stanley Consumer 669.65 -3.43%
    Morgan Stanley Cyclical 837.87 -5.63%
    Morgan Stanley Technology 545.05 -3.64%
    Transports 4,241.59 -5.48%
    Utilities 361.79 -4.75%
    MSCI Emerging Markets 37.13 -6.63%
    Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 980.07 -.75%
    Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 855.88 -.22%
    Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 843.21 +2.11%

    Sentiment/Internals
    NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +82,319 -6.03%
    Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -399 -547
    Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 54.0 +3.85%
    CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +67,361 --27.49%
    CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,387,907 -5.60%
    Total Put/Call 1.33 +19.82%
    OEX Put/Call .89 -27.05%
    ISE Sentiment 64.0 -21.95%
    NYSE Arms .34 -89.03%
    Volatility(VIX) 40.10 +28.36%
    G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 15.74 +15.57%
    Smart Money Flow Index 8,726.50 -4.53%
    Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.844 Trillion -1.2%
    AAII % Bulls 41.30 +12.84%
    AAII % Bears 33.70 -7.92%

    Futures Spot Prices
    CRB Index 251.42 -2.76%
    Crude Oil 70.04 -7.56%
    Reformulated Gasoline 196.12 -8.24%
    Natural Gas 4.03 -7.03%
    Heating Oil 189.67 -8.28%
    Gold 1,176.10 -4.60%
    Bloomberg Base Metals 190.62 -5.20%
    Copper 306.10 -2.05%
    US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 370.67 USD/Ton -.71%
    China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,291 Yuan/Ton -3.31%
    S&P GSCI Agriculture 300.23 +1.81%

    Economy
    ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 127.30 -3.56%
    Citi US Economic Surprise Index +19.40 +5.1 points
    Fed Fund Futures imply 90.0% chance of no change, 10.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/23
    US Dollar Index 85.37 -.84%
    Yield Curve 247.0 -20 basis points
    10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.24% -22 basis points
    Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.333 Trillion +.64%
    U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.47 +2.77%
    Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 126.17 +10.51%
    10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96% -27 basis points
    TED Spread 34.0 +4 basis points
    N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 123.49 +13.97%
    Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 141.35 +9.37%
    Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 304.34 +21.20%
    CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 304.0 +50 basis points
    M1 Money Supply $1.700 Trillion -2.02%
    Business Loans 607.50 -.65%
    4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 453,500 +.7%
    Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.6% unch.
    Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.84% -9 basis points
    Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.20 -1.54%
    ABC Consumer Confidence -44 +3 points
    Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% -20 basis points
    Nationwide Gas $2.83/gallon -.05/gallon
    U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 36.0% above normal
    Baltic Dry Index 3,844 -2.16%
    Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 50.0 -4.76%
    Rail Freight Carloads 218,206 +4.50%
    Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 79.40 -4.62%

    Best Performing Style
    Mid-Cap Growth -3.97%

    Worst Performing Style
    Small-Cap Value -6.99%

    Leading Sectors
    Education +3.41%
    Semis -.93%
    Telecom -2.38%
    Restaurants -2.93%
    Wireless -3.65%

    Lagging Sectors
    Alternative Energy -7.99%
    Steel -8.62%
    Gaming -8.68%
    Coal -10.15%
    Gold -10.61%

    ReplyDelete