Afternoon Delight 4.27.10 - Werewolves (the Sequel)

Like a good "B" movie producer...


I offer you... THE SEQUEL...



121 comments:

Leftback said...

Hey, it's AHAB..

Mannwich said...

LOL!!

bob said...

Great quote LB.

I-Man said...

Have these guys, any of them, directly answered a question... ALL MORNING?

That usually means you arent comfortable with the truth.

CV said...

Quote of the month!

bob said...

Burning time, extend and pretend, it's in their blood.

AmenRa said...

Best day ever because the CNBC anchors have been duct taped during the hearings. :)

But then again I watch Bloomberg.

CV said...

@Amen

As I mentioned at the end of the last thread...

This IS the 55th daily candle since 1044...

FWIW

DL said...

I am certainly open to the idea that the SPX is forming a top in the 1190-1220 area. One of these 2% drops will turn into a 10% drop, before long.

CV said...

@1195... we're sitting RIGHT ON the 21 day SMA...

Haven't touched that since February 25th

CV said...

The last day we "dipped below" (and closed UNDER) the 21 SMA was January 21st...

mcHAPPY said...

Denninger took a few days off and came back refreshed. He has two great reads up - of course, the problem is anyone who follows him semi-regularly knows the deal. But it is still good reading.

I-Man said...

Oooohhh...

Its getting good now...

CV said...

2 "closes" under that 21SMA have led to 5% or 9% market corrections in the past 12 months...

CV said...

Frankly though...

In the 3 market corrections in the past year... When the 21SMA was taken out "with aggression", the dips ended up being short lived... (a day or two below - then back up above)...

Instead - when the CLOSE was a BATTLE to hold the line, a deeper correction ensued...

JTOL

Leftback said...

This is the bit where B/Ds bid up Ts, drive yields lower so they can off-load these piles to Croatian and Macedonian hedge funds or whoever needs to hedge their exposure to Ouzo manufacturers. Then they will sell 'em in the overnight, and we will wake up to higher yields at the short end ahead of Bennie's Wednesday missive.

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/36805723/1

Hopefully German voters let him down.

karen said...

Is it safe to come out? I'll promise to keep my mouth shut.

AmenRa said...

Is there a policy to not put certain information in email?

Damn skippy.

CV said...

@karen

Cute! :-)

DL said...

K @ 2:20

A whole new point of view, I see.

CV said...

@Amen

Better not curse SKIPPY...

He'll punch your lights out!

AmenRa said...

The major problem is that no one in Congress actually works on Wall Street until after they leave office. Which makes this hearing quite laughable.

CV said...

@Amen

Welcome to the KANGAROO COURT!

Leftback said...

Delightful, KAREN.

DL. Subtle. But that's a yellow card from my... perspective.

Mannwich said...

What shoe size, karen? If it's a 6, you should model them for pay. The wife does it. Nice, cool $150/hour. Not kidding.

Mannwich said...

She was also Nicole Kidman's hands in the film "The Interpreter". Residuals still rolling in (but getting much smaller, hundred bucks here and there) from that one.....

McFearless said...

@Ra,

It is amazing the things these guys put in e-mails. Like I've been saying....GIB.

DL said...

AmenRa @ 2:25

I find that politicians are quite dumb about a lot of things.

But most senators are pretty smart about politics, per se.

Mannwich said...

Arrogance, ben. Arrogance. Knows no bounds.

AmenRa said...

McF

I'd figure people know by now to not put anything incriminating in email. Better yet call me on a throwaway.

I-Man said...

The attitude with which these guys are blatantly unanswering questions under oath is a bit troubling to me.

They either are convinced that this is just a show, or they are so filled with hubris that they feel above it.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

The guys at GS know where the politicians skeletons are buried. They're not worried.

DL said...

McF @ 2:29

Yeah, I never get over how dumb people are when it comes to e-mails.

And you'd think that the general counsel at GS would tell management to purge the main computer of all emails every 6 months or so.

At least Bernie Ebbers had the foresight to refrain from using email (not that it helped him in the end).

mcHAPPY said...

Ra, Ben, Manny:

There is an obvious pattern of superiority in their thinking and subsequently their business deals. This is bad on so many levels. Luckily it is bad on such a low level that even J6P is pissed. I mean even they understand, "Good job offloading that shitty paper on some other schmuck."

DL said...

McHappy,

Yeah, but this kind of thing was going on in the 1980's, the 1960's, the 1920's, etc.

It'll never end.

mcHAPPY said...

Not sure if anyone noticed European markets close. As bad as things are going in the US today, Europe got rocked twice as bad (thus far, another hour and bit to go).

bob said...

"I'd figure people know by now to not put anything incriminating in email."

Or what? What is going to happen to them? THey get hauled in front of congress to not answer questions?

Sorry, I had to turn it off a while ago.

We need more dead golden retrievers.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=219426&title=tron-carters-laworder

CV said...

EverySecretariat

is accompanied by a
Sham...

Well... at least until the far turn...

1973 Belmont

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

Of course it has always gone, not only in the 80's, 60's, and 20's as you say. Johnny and Jane are usually oblivious because as long as they have the house, 2 cars, flat panel in every room, American Idol on each flat panel in every room, and a job, they don't give a rats ass. You take that away and watch how quickly Johnny and Jane catch on. This is what is going on now and that isn't good for the elite.

McFearless said...

well, I'm glad others think the emails are crazy.

I mean, putting something like "that's a sh**ty deal" in an e-mail.

Crazy.

McFearless said...

The bad stuff always goes on, we only go after it when social mood is negative and demands it. I've always loved the quote that it's not even the people we care about, it's the persona.

Let's not forget there is certainly class warfare going on here. As I recall WB was asked some time ago if he thought there was class warfare, and he said of course there is, and it is my class that is winning.

P3 changes all of that, at least for a time. Then we repeat it all over again many many years later when everyone thinks it couldn't happen again, yet all the signs are there.

DL said...

McHappy @ 2:42

I more or less agree, but with regard to the narrow, specific charge against GS, only "fat cats" lost money (plus a few taxpayers in Germany, I think).

CV said...

@Manny (2:29)

Residuals still rolling in (but getting much smaller, hundred bucks here and there) from that one...

When I lived in Los Angeles, I was in the Screen actors Guild for awhile (and did several movies & commercials)...

I used to love those residual checks rolling in...

My biggest on was actually for a Dodge/Chrysler/Plymouth commerical that they aired the hell out of...

Eventually the residuals on that stopped though...

I keep looking for the RE-LAUNCH of the 1985 Le Baron, so I'll can be rolling in green again :-)...

Ironworker said...

I-Man,
Not sure what you expect from the Goldmanites...They're under oath and are understandably concerned that they know exactly what the question is that they're answering. I'm not defending their actions for Goldman here, but they'd be foolish on a very personal level to answer vague questions as put by the committee members. I'm much more annoyed at the performance of the senators than the witnesses. But I suppose asking specific pointed questions doesn't create as much adversarial drama (back and forth dialog/appearance of exasperation).
IW

CV said...

@Amen

The guys at GS know where the politicians skeletons are buried. They're not worried.

I'm sure they are all trained at the J Edgar Hoover school of economics...

McFearless said...

DL,

who lost and who did not lose is a gray area really. The impact of those derivatives goes beyond the instrument itself wouldn't you agree?

karen said...

Jeff, how fascinating and fun about your wife! thanks for telling.. i guess i never saw The Interpreter.

bob said...

Question #1 I would like someone to have the balls to ask-

How much money have you personally donated to the political campaigns of the members of this committee?

Mannwich said...

@karen: Go rent it sometime. Not a great film but OK for a rental. Every close up scene of Nicole's hands are my wife's. Stunning hands. She once had her legs up on a huge billboard around Times Square too. Was up for at least a few weeks, so we got a kick out of it while we lived there every time we walked by. She always jokes that she's not pretty enough to have her to be a "face model". But I beg to differ. ;-)

DL said...

McF @ 2:57

I agree absolutely.

But I'm also trying to look at this from the narrow perspective of a defense attorney.

CV said...

Barry Ritholtz says...

"Well when I was invited down to give a testimony before Congress... In between my GREY POUPON asking sessions... I decided I was too important to go... But if I did, I would have simply answered 'I'm just a Wall Streeter who blogs' and left it at that"...

I-Man said...

@ Ironworker

I've seen more than a few very specific questions unanswered.

bob said...

Low on EUR not correlating to low on SPY.

Very close to new year low on EUR.

Mannwich said...

The whole "parts model" thing always reminds of when George was a hand model. Little do many people outside of NYC and LA know that people actually make a pretty nice living doing these gigs.

Mannwich said...

In "Seinfeld"....

DL said...

CV,

Ritholtz is all over this thing. Numerous posts on his blog, and a public appearance on Bloomberg.

He also got top billing in Alan Abselson's column on Saturday.

It's a crusade for him.

AmenRa said...

I take it Blanky won't be in front of the panel today. Probably kicked it over to the nearest golf course.

Nic said...

Mannwich that's very cool.

Buckle up people its BUY time

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/cramer-on-morning-joe-42610/

Did anyone see this? DL, you may wish to re-think you stance on GS after watching Jim Cramer, yes Jim Cramer, do a total 180 degree turn from a couple of weeks ago. Just in case anyone forgot his initial reaction, here you go!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AWktx-tCZg

I believe JIm and Erin owe an apology.

Ironworker said...

I-Man,
Agreed.
I'm willing to accept the possibility that my contempt for our elected officials is coloring my perception of this hearing. Many of the senators come across as intentionally obtuse, at best. The witnesses are trying to cover their collective asses.
IW

mcHAPPY said...

WOW, AIG is getting the shite kicked out of it. Any reason, besides the obvious that has been ignored for months?

Nic said...

Sadly as I amat 5'11" with proportionate hands and feet and they have already made Shrek and the sequel I would be out of luck in the parts modelling thing

karen said...

mcHappy, here is part of the downgrade on AIG today:

AIG Shares Fall As Stock Analyst Grows Bearish
9:54 AM ET 4/27/10 By Brendan Conway Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares in American International Group Inc. (AIG) fell Tuesday after a Wall Street stock analyst said the company has no net earnings per share in the conventional sense, and also set a bearish $6 target price for the stock.

The assessment appeared to put the jitters into some AIG shareholders on the same day that Goldman Sachs Groups Inc. (GS) officials are scheduled to testify on Capitol Hill, with shares off 5.6% to $42 in early Tuesday trading.

Any positive earnings figures from AIG "cannot be valued in the normal sense" because the company's unusual post-bailout capital structure means earnings don't accrue to common shareholders, wrote Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Cliff Gallant Tuesday as he downgraded his investment rating on AIG shares to "underperform" from "market perform."

"If one were to include the Series E preferred stock as debt (formerly, this was simply TARP debt), then the total AIG debt level is $188 billion versus diluted common equity of just $23 billion," he wrote. Even a $6 price target seems "optimistic and somewhat implausible" under those conditions, he added.

DL said...

McHappy @ 3:13

I haven't yet watched the video.

But the question is whether or not the FINAL verdict (after all appeals are exhausted) will be one of guilt (of actual fraud, and not some lesser charge).

I'm still betting "no".

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, Nic.

Down over 13% now.

mcHAPPY said...

DL,

BR has a bet going. Take him up on it. My betting money is on FAZ.

karen said...

TraderMark sold the rest of his spy puts:

I sold the 2nd half of the SPY puts as there appears to be no miracle coming in the last 90 minutes. Main logic here is not to compound a mistake, go back to cash aka a clean slate and start anew tomorrow. In the old days I'd also list overnight risk but since almost every morning we are greeted with positive futures it has not been a risk very often the past year+.

From here the only drama is to see if S&P 1194 will hold on the close. If not, the first close below the 20 day since mid February.

Despite the drop today, it still remains a market that only seems to fall when human emotion is involved... if there is no specific news event, we just grind up.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/bookkeeping-sold-remaining-50-of-spy.html

Nic said...

AIG's previous assets were all tax credits. I guess they are pretty worthless if you are never actually going to earn anything.

Mannwich said...

@karen: Oh, is that all? $6?? LOL. The dash out of trash about to commence?

CV said...

@karen (3:23)

x2

I'm with Trader Mark... 1194.1842 to be exact...

We'll look at 1210, I'm pretty convinced, at some time, so if one is DAY TRADING this thing, it's probably time to close up shop and head home...

Leftback said...

"the company has no net earnings per share in the conventional sense,"

Also known as "making a loss.." LOL.....

CV said...

@karen

But my reference to 1194 (as expressed early in the day on the other thread) was TWOFOLD...

First - it's a .21 FIBO retrace from 1219.8

Second - I'm using the 21 day SMA (from Feb 22nd) as my reference...

They're both the same number...

Glad Trader Mark is a reader :-)

CV said...

1178.33 is probably the next BIG fibo number down if we stay below 1194...

Leftback said...

Sold some 5y Ts to raise cash. Will move it further out to the long end in a few days. Some kind of flattener is coming. The risk/reward is better at the long end.

McFearless said...

man, I like Trader Mark, but the news event stuff, come on.

What was the event today?

goldman: No, we knew about that a while ago

Greece: Ditto

did I miss one?

markets can't only drop when human emotion is involved because it's ALWAYS involved, so it is there on the way up too.

come on people, it aint the news.....how about just a lot of people are bullish, I know stating the obvious like that isn't as cool as finding a news event to prove causality, but it's more truthful.

bob said...

there goes eur...

CV said...

1194 is also the 144SMA on the 60 min charts...

Mannwich said...

How about a final 20 minute dump for good measure?

CV said...

233SMA on the 60 min. charts comes in at 1181.37

I-Man said...

It wasnt inaccurate, it was less than accurate.

CV said...

@I-Man

"I know stating the obvious like that isn't as cool as finding a news event to prove causality, but it's more truthful."


The Lone Ranger and Tonto went camping in the desert. After they got their tent all set up, both men fell sound asleep.

Some hours later, Tonto wakes the Lone Ranger and says, 'Kemo Sabe, look towards sky, what you see? '

'The Lone Ranger replies, 'I see millions of stars.'

'What that tell you?' asked Tonto.

The Lone Ranger ponders for a minute then says,
'Astronomically speaking, it tells me there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets.

Astrologically, it tells me that Saturn is in Leo.

Time wise, it appears to be approximately a quarter past three in the morning.

Theologically, the Lord is all-powerful and we are small and insignificant.

Meteorologically, it seems we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. What's it tell you, Tonto?'

Tonto says:

'Kemo Sabe... you dumber than buffalo shit. It means someone stole the tent!'

mcHAPPY said...

So this is how the bulls felt every day waiting for the market to finish strong in to the close.

Lord John said...

Only need another 14 or so days like today and I'll be back to even :-)

Mannwich said...

Meanwhile, HarryWanger decided to go take his daily beatings at another blog, ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/earnings-update-ex-financials-there-are-no-upside-revenue-surprises

Mannwich said...

Can we get two of these kinds of days in a row though? I'm skeptical, for obvious reasons.

CV said...

I know it's too much to hope for...

But keep it up thru the week and the April MONTHLY candle will look pretty horrible!

McFearless said...

lol, Wanger, that dude is funny.

Man, back to the drawing board again tonight. Too low for the triangle....

karen said...

my little miner is green! nice up in $gold! that is what gold is supposed to do.. go in the opposite direction of the effing dow.

McFearless said...

man, not saying we'll close here, I mean who knows what happens in the next 10, but I for the life of me can't even remember the last 2% down day on the S&P. We never had one in any of the corrections since March 09 did we?

CV said...

@Lord John

14 more months like this and we might be back to 666...

Mannwich said...

Someone was kind of enough to pull out one of his comments from the Yahoo message boards back in the day.

by AllSingingAllDa...
on Tue, 04/27/2010 - 14:23
#320240

HarryWanger is a liar. And just abasement troll. Let's see some statements proving your investment genius.

Here's one of your statements: DOW will not go below 9000 again in our lifetimes. October 31, 2008.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_S/threadview?m=...

McFearless said...

C, 3:41, lol.

McFearless said...

well, perhaps this is me just feeling tired, but for the sake of all our sanity, probably shouldnt' get too excited about today just yet.

Mannwich said...

So THIS is what a down day looks like? I almost forgot.

CV said...

@Manny (3:45)

LMAO - My man HW is into some serious S&M :-)

karen said...

GS is still green. C, BAC, not so much : )

CV said...

FWIW

We now be back BELOW the 144SMA on the MONTHLY charts for $SPX...

Mannwich said...

Someone over at ZH pulled out one of lb's classics from last year.

by BorisTheBlade
on Tue, 04/27/2010 - 13:14
#320052

Come on guys:

The Scene: Schadenfreude Asset Management World HQ.

Harry WANGER, genius investor and noted BULL on AMERICA is at his desk. The door opens. LEFTBACK arrives, even later than is his custom, yawns and smiles insouciantly at HARRY, who is watching CNBC, playing with a little JIM CRAMER bobblehead doll, and wearing a RALLY CAP on his head for luck.

“Jeezus, LEFT” exclaims HARRY, “where have you been? You are missing the greatest PROFIT opportunities in a LIFETIME as the MINI-BOOM rolls on and the indices continue to lead”.

“Been at lunch with a client, Harry”, replies LEFTBACK, “Tatiana Getchikitoff, a well-known Russian model and former tennis player. Very worried about the declining dollar. Where did you get that revolting headgear?”

“Quite sensible” replied HARRY, ignoring the jibe, “You should really introduce her to our firm’s leading money manager MYSELF! In any case, I hope you put her in some miners, drillers and metals, Left. As you know, we hold a lot of those in my top-rated fund: Soaring Eagle Leveraged Long-Only Flagship Fund (SELLOFF).”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/baltic-dry-index-2/

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Harry%20wanger

CV said...

No close on that candle (until Friday)...

Mannwich said...

Or maybe that WAS lb who pulled that out? Was that you lb?

McFearless said...

sellers picking up, happened yesterday into the close also.

mcHAPPY said...

The fact bulls are expecting it to go higher and the fact many bears are expecting it to go higher before lower (myself included).... dare I ponder the, you know, the ^ .

CV said...

We now be back BELOW the 144SMA on the MONTHLY charts for $SPX...

I say that NOT in jest...

Looking back 20 years... Not until AFTER Lehman did SPX ever get a MONTHLY candle close UNDER the 144SMA (not even at the 'bottom' of the 2002 recession)...

We just ticked over it in April (but the month ain't done yet)...

Question?

Is the LEHMAN LINE "Little Round Top" (Gettysburg), and is the market going to end up doing a General Pickett?

Didn't end up too well for the Confederate Army as I recall...

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is the true contrarian indicator! From now on do the opposite of what I say. This is from Friday, as I was waiting to get stopped out this week:

mcHAPPY said...
I think the trend has shifted on the SP500. Looking for new highs.

April 23, 2010 4:03 PM
DL said...
McHappy --> McBear --> McBull.

April 23, 2010 4:06 PM

Leftback said...
McHappy --> McBear --> McBull

CONTRARIAN INDICATOR ALERT...!!!

It's OK, it's either McBull or McGiant McInsect...

April 23, 2010 4:08 PM

mcHAPPY said...
LB, I would not mind being a contrarian indicator. Came awfully close to my stop on FAZ and FXP is crawling ahead since I joined in - but still in on both. I was looking for a close over 1215 - we got it.

mcHAPPY is still very much a bear. Looking for a final leg up before all hell breaks lose for DL. I do not think the highs will extend too far beyond previous highs. Just a long grind higher to get more Johnny's onboard and inflate DL a little more - don't get me wrong, you haven't been wrong so pat on the back for you.

Here is my music for Friday night, appropriate for anyone tired of waiting for P3:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR8plv3q7p0

(video starts around 0:30)

April 23, 2010 4:58 PM

Mannwich said...

I gladly hand off my "contrarian" baton to you, McHappy. ;-)

Leftback said...

NO I am not Boris....

mcHAPPY said...

Manny,

I love being wrong when I am green. It is a rarity for me. I'll expect to slide back in to the red tomorrow.

mcHAPPY said...

I should clarify: it is a rarity to be green, not wrong. I'm wrong a lot, as you all know.

AmenRa said...

I just remembered that this is the EOM week. Got to get the books in order before the buying frenzy on MFM (mutual fund mondays & start of month).

CV said...

I'm BORIS dammit!

Mannwich said...

No doubt, McHappy.

@lb: Well, it looks like Boris took some of your past well known screeds and kept it alive even nearly a year after the fact.

mcHAPPY said...

Oil is also getting hit hard. Oil reports tonight and tomorrow should be interesting - but not for me. Never again will I touch oil.

CV said...

@Amen

Keep in mind that May 1st is a holiday in many parts of Europe (&Russia)...

LABOR DAY

I haven't checked, but there are likely to be some closed markets on Monday (the 4th) overseas as May 1st falls on Saturday...

DL said...

McHappy @ 4:12

I'd probably be a buyer of oil @ $75.

CV said...

I meant Monday May 3rd...

LSE, DAX, MIBTEL, & Paris closed...

CV said...

Sorry...

Observation of May 1st (May 3rd)... is a bank holiday, but markets will be open...

Better double check... In case...

Mannwich said...

Off for 9 holes of golf. Have a great night, peeps.

karen said...

CMP just reported.. sickening, i owned a bunch in the 20s several years ago.. before "the crash" it ran to $84.. recently made it back to $82.. in AH now, 76..

karen said...

Hope AR is up for the wrap this evening.. doped up and all! till later!

CV said...

AMENRA's CORNER UP

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