Sure I could get on board with that, waves come first of course. I do wonder now if the dollar is going to make a big wave 5, perhaps and extened fifth to kick this off making the eventual wave 2 down in the dollar coincide with the wave 2 up in stocks.
thinking the correlation will come back that easy is probably a dream though, at least for now anyway.
I believe it. I wondered months ago if the market would ignore completely the entire intial advance in the dollar. At the time I figured it wouldn't be able to, I did underestimate how crazy people would get again and so quickly.
On another note, I'm not a speech writer, but if I were, I likely would not have suggested for Obama to use the phrase "join us" when discussing Wall St and the reform. I'm not so sure that's what the idea is here, where he and Lloyd hold hands in Michelle's garden. Words hold a lot of meaning when the general populace doesn't understand even the basics of what is going on here.
ok karen, that's roughly the mortgage pmt on a 10 million mtg @ 5% over 30 years not including taxes or insurance. So, they think they can get renters to continue to cover the mortgage on those, that's why I was asking. My conculsion is same as yours, unrentable.
Really though, I just wanted to see if I could hang out with LC in the summer.
I think the best thing I could say right now is based on the move this afternoon I'd throw out the drop the other day as an impulsive, the volume wasn't impulsive looking this morning either, I realize technically we haven't broken a rule but wave 2 shouldn't retrace like this. So perhaps a slightly higher high and then a down move which will be only a B wave, then a C after that to complete the larger triple zig zag from the 3/09 lows. If that doesn't play there is nothing else after a triple zig zag and I'll have to become a bull.
There seems a triangle forming now so I'm just going to have to sit and wait and see which way it breaks.
I think all the traders realize the significance of the Lehman range AT and Dan have been talking about. This is a huge battle.
Sad day. I was away from computer better part of my afternoon. Disappointed the market bounced back like this. Was hoping for more downward action to get a real B feel. All positions RED *tsk tsk tsk* and coming close to stops.
Folks at BAMInvestor have been right on things but awful on timing. They started calling for 4-5 mini-crashes by the end of March, 2010. They were calling for $36 oil from Spring '08 until July '08 before prices went down - of course they were eventually proven correct but it took a while. Here are latest predictions:
$EURUSD--bounce coming short-term (1.338-1.34) but that 1.29 target should be seen on 4-26/4-28 according to model.
$EURUSD model sees decline to 1.29 level over coming three sessions and crash to .9988 magnet possible this summer!
yeah, I checked BAM out after SC talked about them the other day, pretty interesting stuff, not sure what goes in the model but the behavior ideas are very similar to socionomics/waves.
You just know BX wants a haircut on the principal.. this is all BS:
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010, 2:59 pm Source: Business Week Blackstone Group may ask creditors to restructure $4.94bn of debt remaining from its 2007 purchase of Sam Zell’s Equity Office Properties Trust, according to two people familiar with the discussions.
Blackstone would consider paying down about 5% of the balance and agreeing to a slightly higher interest rate in exchange for extending the maturity, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. The debt, which was packaged and sold as a commercial mortgage- backed bond in June 2007, matures in 2012.
While US commercial property values have fallen almost 42% since 2007, the Blackstone properties are generating enough cash to pay the mortgages.
I've been following BAM via twitter (the only thing I've ever looked at on twitter in fact - with the exception of a few links from BAM) since September/October. Following them now seems like it was following oil in 2008. They kept saying it is going to crash as oil kept going up, up, up, up. They kept saying add, add, add, add to your short positions. That is what they are saying now about equities. I hope lightning strikes twice!
BTW, they are calling for KO at $12 by 2014.
They went quiet from February 17-April 7th. Something about crying wolf I guess. Either way, I hope they are right in the end. I enjoy the tweets.
so, the N. Korea missle issue is true?
ReplyDeleteaccording to Ticker Guy...
ReplyDeleteI haven't confirmed...
Faber:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/36704832
check out this one way street: $xad:$xeu
ReplyDeletethen compare to $xad;$xjy
what a toss up it would be if $xad and $xeu fell hard in tandem, with $usd and $xjy carry undone in the flurry
I haven't watched TV in a while, when did bernie quit Bloomberg?
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one who has a problem listening to a bald guy with a pony tail?
oh come on anon, what about the mouth foaming najarian brothers!
ReplyDelete@karen (2:53)
ReplyDeleteThat's the set-up IMO...
It's going to correlate with the end of this C wave...
R U on board with that McF?
KUNG FU had a pony tail...
ReplyDeleteYou just never saw it...
you can all kiss me goodbye if GS ends green. i will slit my wrists..
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteSure I could get on board with that, waves come first of course. I do wonder now if the dollar is going to make a big wave 5, perhaps and extened fifth to kick this off making the eventual wave 2 down in the dollar coincide with the wave 2 up in stocks.
thinking the correlation will come back that easy is probably a dream though, at least for now anyway.
@McF
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you something honestly tho...
That's the EXACT scenario I've been contemplating since February 27th...
I'm not kidding you... Since that EXACT date...
Facing Foreclosure at $5 Mil and Up
ReplyDeleteThe only difference is... I'd pegged the SPX high to finish at 1183, and the 30 year bond to hit a "5" handle in the process...
ReplyDeleteSo those variables are slightly off...
but basically...
C,
ReplyDeleteI believe it. I wondered months ago if the market would ignore completely the entire intial advance in the dollar. At the time I figured it wouldn't be able to, I did underestimate how crazy people would get again and so quickly.
On another note, I'm not a speech writer, but if I were, I likely would not have suggested for Obama to use the phrase "join us" when discussing Wall St and the reform. I'm not so sure that's what the idea is here, where he and Lloyd hold hands in Michelle's garden. Words hold a lot of meaning when the general populace doesn't understand even the basics of what is going on here.
just under $10 million in unpaid loans headed to auction in LB again this week.. http://lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com/
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many Chinese are ending up buying those...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteCan you rent a lot of those houses?
How much would it cost to rent one for about a month?
...or druglords
ReplyDeleteCanadiens CV. Using all the "equity" from their own homes. I had this dream that a few years ago that was going on with people here.
ReplyDeleteWait,....that wasn't just a dream.
@McF
ReplyDeleteQuestion... Because I don't know EW like you do...
Is this a wave 5 up from 1190 this morning?
If it is... it could be the ending to the C
ben, hope this link works for you.. they start at $50k/month (LOL!) those are obviously unrented and unrentable.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Laguna-Beach_CA/price-4000-100000/type-rentals
If my crystal ball is still working, then 1209 should be tops...
ReplyDeleteok karen, that's roughly the mortgage pmt on a 10 million mtg @ 5% over 30 years not including taxes or insurance. So, they think they can get renters to continue to cover the mortgage on those, that's why I was asking. My conculsion is same as yours, unrentable.
ReplyDeleteReally though, I just wanted to see if I could hang out with LC in the summer.
C,
ReplyDeleteI think the best thing I could say right now is based on the move this afternoon I'd throw out the drop the other day as an impulsive, the volume wasn't impulsive looking this morning either, I realize technically we haven't broken a rule but wave 2 shouldn't retrace like this. So perhaps a slightly higher high and then a down move which will be only a B wave, then a C after that to complete the larger triple zig zag from the 3/09 lows. If that doesn't play there is nothing else after a triple zig zag and I'll have to become a bull.
There seems a triangle forming now so I'm just going to have to sit and wait and see which way it breaks.
I think all the traders realize the significance of the Lehman range AT and Dan have been talking about. This is a huge battle.
Sad day. I was away from computer better part of my afternoon. Disappointed the market bounced back like this. Was hoping for more downward action to get a real B feel. All positions RED *tsk tsk tsk* and coming close to stops.
ReplyDeleteFolks at BAMInvestor have been right on things but awful on timing. They started calling for 4-5 mini-crashes by the end of March, 2010. They were calling for $36 oil from Spring '08 until July '08 before prices went down - of course they were eventually proven correct but it took a while. Here are latest predictions:
ReplyDelete$EURUSD--bounce coming short-term (1.338-1.34) but that 1.29 target should be seen on 4-26/4-28 according to model.
$EURUSD model sees decline to 1.29 level over coming three sessions and crash to .9988 magnet possible this summer!
1209.07 open and high of 9/29/08. That's the target. We've had 2 closes above it so far. This may be the 3rd. Damn.
ReplyDeleteyeah, I checked BAM out after SC talked about them the other day, pretty interesting stuff, not sure what goes in the model but the behavior ideas are very similar to socionomics/waves.
ReplyDeleteEWI hasn't made many good calls lately so they are offering up what they wrote about Goldman now for free if anyone is interested:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/16/Goldman-Sachs-Charged-With-Fraud-Who-Could-Have-Guessed-Part-I.aspx?code=cg
GS just went red and popped green again.. okay, we're under 1209.. and indu a full 20 from 11154.. still UFB, all in all.
ReplyDelete1209.07 REJECTED! Probably needs to get the gray out.
ReplyDeleteYou just know BX wants a haircut on the principal.. this is all BS:
ReplyDeleteThursday, April 22nd, 2010, 2:59 pm
Source: Business Week
Blackstone Group may ask creditors to restructure $4.94bn of debt remaining from its 2007 purchase of Sam Zell’s Equity Office Properties Trust, according to two people familiar with the discussions.
Blackstone would consider paying down about 5% of the balance and agreeing to a slightly higher interest rate in exchange for extending the maturity, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. The debt, which was packaged and sold as a commercial mortgage- backed bond in June 2007, matures in 2012.
While US commercial property values have fallen almost 42% since 2007, the Blackstone properties are generating enough cash to pay the mortgages.
I've been following BAM via twitter (the only thing I've ever looked at on twitter in fact - with the exception of a few links from BAM) since September/October. Following them now seems like it was following oil in 2008. They kept saying it is going to crash as oil kept going up, up, up, up. They kept saying add, add, add, add to your short positions. That is what they are saying now about equities. I hope lightning strikes twice!
ReplyDeleteBTW, they are calling for KO at $12 by 2014.
They went quiet from February 17-April 7th. Something about crying wolf I guess. Either way, I hope they are right in the end. I enjoy the tweets.
off for now! will look forward to your wrap AR.. wincing already.
ReplyDeleteTHank God Karen you didn't slit the wrists! GS closed green by .12 but were down .05 1 minute after the bell. I have a feeling you know this though.
ReplyDeleteOuch, down .44 now.
ReplyDeletemore reading:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.esquire.com/the-side/richardson-report/stock-market-predictions-2010-041410
Sorry Karen, missed your comments above. Blogspot has been a cruel host as of late.
ReplyDeleteCV outta here for a bit too...
ReplyDeleteAMEN... Do me a favor...
I'd like to always put that AMEN CORNER foto (from yesterday) and the caption under it at the top of your wrap...
So... Could you copy and paste it to the top of your HTML?
Thanks! :-)
man, it's no wonder PTTAX is so huge, I can't remember the last time I saw a 401k that didn't have it as an option.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteFunny you should mention that. I had already copied the html info to add.