SPXBearish harami cross day (confirmation would be sweet). Held above fibo extension 1153.47 and next price target is 1172.08. No daily 3LB changes. Buy the dip! Buy the dip! (snark off)
DXYBullish long day. Tested 10 SMA and passed. Tested 21 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish short day. Closed below the fibo ext of 61.8% (which may be the launching point). Midpoint still below 10 SMA. New low for daily 3LB with reversal now 22.27. Also it's now trending down on the daily 3LB.
GOLDSpinning top day that confirmed the bearish thrusting from yesterday. Closed above 89 SMA but held the 10 & 21 SMA's. No daily 3LB changes.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint is now below 10 SMA. Tested daily 3LB reversal and passed. Is it me or does this look like an evening star pattern? No daily 3LB changes.
SUGAR #11Bullish long day. Decided to avoid the monthly 3LB reversal by trading back above 18.61. Confirmed the bullish harami cross from yesterday. No daily 3LB changes.
BIDUDoji day. Traded into the gap but closed above it. Is it the bulls or bears who are indecisive here? Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.
AAII sentiment:
ReplyDeleteMarch 18: 35.37% bulls 34.76% neutral 29.88% bears
which shows that bears have jumped roughly 5% since last week. Little hard to get super bearish on that.
and bulls DROPPED by 10% roughly.
ReplyDeleteSt. Mary's brought the Thunder!
ReplyDeleteOnuaku is out for Cuse.....this could spell serious trouble for them if he can't get back and they make it to the later rounds.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteIt's you AND it looks like an evening star pattern... EURUSD
@McF
He'll be back... In time for when it's important...
@ben
ReplyDeleteThe "thunder from DOWN UNDER" (St Marys)
On EURUSD- I still think opex is more of the story in the short term. Waiting until noon before I stop sitting on my hands.
ReplyDeleteSU- AO is going to be fine, I think. Jackson can step in, and after that the irishman, riley.
St. Mary's- did not see that one.
All in all, good first day. Happens every year around here, great weather competing with great basketball. G'town tonight.
A Great Socionomic Indicator:
ReplyDeleteMichael Jordan becomes Bobcats owner. First former player to ever do so.
All, take a look at the $TNX part and go back to the December lows....I believe a set up is coming.
ReplyDelete$TNX....chart
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteI'm noticing something else as well... I'm going to have this in the charts for tomorrow's thread...
The VIX is very close to 16...
16 was the level it descended to in October '07... (after the summer scare, the Cramer rant, "They know nothing", and the FED started cutting rates"...
After equities started selling off in October '07, and really got going with Soc Gen in January '08, (and emergency rate cuts by the Fed at that time)... Bear Stearns erupted in March... The VIX was elevated again, but started to come down again after people started thinking Bear Stearns was taken care of...
The wave two UP (from the TOP in '07), ended in May '08... Where the VIX touched 16 again...
It has never seen 16 again (except for those two occasions, Oct '07 highs, May '08)...
We're there again...
F*ck St Mary's.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg.com "Fed may increase discount rate before next policy meeting - Economist say" and a Editors' video pick "Most U.S. stocks fall on concern Fed will raise rates"?
ReplyDeleteWhat?
wow- some long days here lately- good though- because that means $$$-
ReplyDeletegot a morning post in on the "brackets"- and was disillusioned that CV didn't have all the big ten teams pushing to the "sweetness" that is sixteen-
except for maybe Minn-
but he did show some respect to Wisconsin and Ohio State-
so I'll give him that
and- because I am basically lazy- and have not perused the previous thread with any diligence-
ReplyDeletedid anyone catch Faber's comments today?
very interesting and plausible
G-town getting their asses handed to them. The first major casuality in my three brackets.
ReplyDeleteNo ahab. What did he say? Rickards has chimed in about China being the biggest bubble of all time though.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aNZe4JWeV1aw
. . .and UNLV- needs to lose- I've hated that team since the towel sucking Armenian was the head coach
ReplyDeleteb22- yes Georgetown looks woeful- speaking of which- can you pick up the John Thompson show up in Delaware- dude still sounds like he has marbles in his mouth-
CV- being a local- do you ever catch the Sports Junkies- local boys- from Silver Spring I believe- dudes are funny- haven't caught the show in a long time- basically when WHFS turned into a spanish station when they had the morning slot- but I use to catch them all the time on my way home when they were on in the afternoons on WJFK
b22-
ReplyDeletehere's the link re Faber-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35912043
love this line- which I tend to buy into-
"I think interest rates forever in the US will be at zero, by zero I mean below the rate of inflation,"
Thanks ahab. FYI - It's me, Mannwich, not b22.
ReplyDeleteInteresting, ahab. What crazy times we are living in. I wonder just how much they can reflate this bubble (and for how much longer) before it all collapses?
ReplyDeletemanny-
ReplyDeletedude- that's funny- I saw your avatar and it kind of looked like b22's-
maybe I should read the name next time- lol
I remember you as the big dog(-:
@ahab: Yeah, I decided to switch things up a bit. A picture from my recent Kauai trip in Nov. ;-)
ReplyDeleteGeorgetown now only down by 7!!!
ReplyDeletemanny- that whole viewpoint- now that all stops are out- money printing forever-
Faber's takeaway- stocks have to go up-
in the end it all implodes- but down the road
manny-
ReplyDeleteI was born in Honolulu- I guess that makes me Hawaiian(-:
got caught in a nasty rip tide once body surfing about 2:00 in the AM-
made it back in- but barely
I was quite fearful
@ahab: You're gonna get your wish - UNLV going to lose too.
ReplyDeleteSounds plausible (anything does at this point), ahab. Might as well enjoy in the meantime, right?
ReplyDeleteI hear you about rip tides in Hawaii. There are some nasty ones there. Have to be real careful. That must have been a scary thing.
wow, G-Town out, #5 for Ohio played a great game.
ReplyDeleteThat G-Town loss really effs up all three of my brackets. I hope not too many picked Ohio there.
ReplyDeletemanny-
ReplyDeletehappened to me last year on a surf board- unbelievably-
I was down in the OBX w/ my younger son- 15- and he was surfing on my board but was drifting out way too far-
I had my older son's board- the real surfer in the family- and his board is as light as a feather-
got on it and rode out to my son telling him to get in-
next thing you know- I am getting pushed out to sea- on this almost weightless surfboard- and it took all I had to wrestle that surfboard back into shore-
I am going to leave the ocean to my kids at this point
@ahab: Wow, that sounds like a truly scary story. Must have shaken you up a bit. I don't blame you for staying away from the water. I mainly just boogie board, although I wouldn't mind learning how to surf for real someday. My wife and I took a quick course on our honeymoon but I could barely even get up and stay up. My wife, on the other hand, got up quite easily.
ReplyDeleteOn another note - had a blast skiing at Steamboat last weekend. Some nice fresh snow. Such a different (better) skiing experience out there. Soft, fluffy snow and really long, scenic trails. A lot of fun. Really improved over the weekend too. Can't wait to do it again next year.
manny-
ReplyDeleteSteamboat- awesome- I am a big snowboarder- all East coast though-
Vermont is great- but it's no Steamboat-
problem w/ East coast is ice
@ahab: Yeah, same thing in MN (and no real decent hills here except for maybe WAY up north in Lutsen). Too much ice. The skiing is like floating out in CO. Usually not icy at all. Like floating on feathers. Doesn't hurt as much when you take a spill either. I think I'm hooked. Would rather not get hooked on such an expensive hobby though.
ReplyDeleteGolden Eagles lose to the Huskies after a double-digit 2nd half lead - had 'em in my final 8, darn
ReplyDelete2small-
ReplyDeletemangy mutts?
My brackets in shambles. Huskies deserved that win. Pondexter is a beast.
ReplyDeletenot James Ahab, just 2small - long time reader, infrequent poster, no other handle
ReplyDelete2small & I-Man-
ReplyDeletepinning all your hopes on the home team?
Not skiing on ice is a completely different thing.
ReplyDeleteI'm on the east coast and you can do it, but you have to hike. There is a lot of good back country skiing that you can take advantage of. Watch out for the tress. There are a lot more people that do it than you think, they are just very protective of their snow.
My bracket is on life support. Big east letting me down.
bob
Kinda... I thought Richmond would win. I'm not a UW fan. I had Marquette all the way to the 16, and I should have picked ODU dammit, I called that shit.
ReplyDeleteIf Siena and Tennessee dont win I'm done for.
Yeah, Pondexter is good.
ReplyDeleteJimmer Fredette!
Ahab - Big East bias cost me 10 points ...
ReplyDeleteso- now that more folks are around- sports aside- who saw the Faber article?
ReplyDelete2small-
ReplyDeleteBig Ten is where you need to be-
not that I'm partial
i wish someone would sext me, i mean, text me, when you all are having a party!
ReplyDeleteAhab - re: Faber - the variation of opinion on the extent and sequence of -flation is vague ... seems he's predicting no deflationary collapse for 10 years ... long time to wait for pretend to end
ReplyDeletekaren-
ReplyDeletecrack me up(-:
Funny, K.
ReplyDeleteMy sis works at a very posh private day school in ATL, and they just had a big "sexting" scandal.
And no Capt, did not check the Fab-argh...
ReplyDeleteahab, i something for you: Best Divorce Letter Ever
ReplyDeletekaren-
ReplyDeleteawesome!!!! poor dude has it bad- his wife doesn't understand-
maybe she'll get her shit together and make it right by him(-:
2small-
ReplyDeleteexactly- 10 years- plausible???
maybe
the Fed has a track record of keeping the dream alive-
even if it ends in complete implosion- who knows when the real end is?
ahab, i know, i know, i can relate to his problems myself!!
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteI've seen that before and it still cracks me up when I read it.
so . . .you're in the tub with a teenage girl???
ReplyDeletewow- that's sexy(-:!!
Not!! and reverse the sexes! besides that, i only skimmed the end and am far from interested in babies..
ReplyDeleteokay, let's talk markets! i'm getting close to throwing in the towel, just as in 07..problem is, in 07, the FED wasn't the instigator of the leverage as it is now.. i mean, they were the facilitator, but not the promoter..
ReplyDeletekaren- you kill me(-:
ReplyDeletealright-
ReplyDeleteas we said in the Navy- the "rack monster" is calling-
meaning I am very sleepy-
anyway- Karen- your last post- I am feeling the same way-
catch you in the morning
xxx to you all!
ReplyDeleteAnyone else noticing that while USD gained some pips during the last 2days or so and Euro sliding down to 1.357 levels, Precious Metals seem to be hanging on, especially siver.
ReplyDeletePrashant
Testing, 1,2,3. My "big down day" on Monday prediction got eaten. Big brother?
ReplyDelete