The Week Ahead "Look" - April Fools Edition

Bring it, April.

Market Commentary 1Apr12


Addenda:

I like Kentucky in a blow out tomorrow.

25 comments:

qqqqtrader said...

Thx AT...

Have you done any waves on natgas lately, or do you have to wait for it to go to zero then start over? ...hehe

Orange Balls & Blue Balls

Andy T said...

qqqq.

Yeah, funny stuff those commodities.

In the last few years I've come to realize that Neely had it 'right' when it comes to analyzing commodities.

He doesn't do it.

The reason is that commodities are not a "living" thing like Forex or a stock or a metal.

Commodities can and do "perish."

Or, commodities can reach a point where this is, in reality, not enough storage to go around. There is so much supply that it cannot all be "cash and carried" to some future point in time.

Alternatively, commodities can, in reality, 'stock out.' I've seen situations where there really is 'nothing' left in the tanks. There's no more supply available for the immediate demand.

So, the issue with commodities is that they 'can' go to ZERO or basically Infinity.

Also, in the case of the Ag's...they can actually perish if they sit around too long.

So, Wave counts on commodities are sort of 'moving target.' I think you can use Wave analysis to assess the 'nature' of short term moves/patterns and I think you can use wave analysis to look at very, very long cycles.

But, both, or either of those, are sort of useless for general investment/trading ideas.

In short term analysis, you don't know if you're 'feeling' the trunk of an elephant or some kind of snake.

The long terms stuff....well...if I had a billion dollars of assets I was playing with..the long cycles would be cool to 'trade'...you know...for the 10 year move in soybeans and such.

Alas, I don't have a billion dollars.

Andy T said...

With all that said....I'm hugely bullish Natty over the next 10 years....

The problem is 'how' to invest in that idea.

I've come to the conclusion that the best strategy might be to just own the E&P part of ConocoPhillips when it comes public/gets split with down stream.

The problem with a lot of the other smaller E&P co.'s that might make you volatile bank is that they might also go bust before this whole washout is done.

A co. like conocophillips is NOT going bust and they have huge exposure to natty.

So, I'm going long the COP/E&P sometime this year...and i'll be in for the longer haul.

qqqqtrader said...

AT thanks

""The problem is 'how' to invest in that idea.""

yeh, not sure which way to go. Sort of checked into other stocks like...

pipeline companies... EP, WMB
conversion companies... CLNE, WPRT, OMTK

There is a shift to natty but how much and how long... I guess most of it depends on the price of oil.

qqqqtrader said...

... and the Govt.

AmenRa said...

Thanks Andy. I can't tell when prices will correct but last week had a higher high and low than the previous week. Plus this is the second week the SPX closed above the 50.0% minor retrace of 1402.42 (weekly chart). I can feel the correction in the air but algos don't feel. The weekly 3LB mid moved up to 1389.05 so it won't take much to change sentiment to bearish.

cv said...

Commodities can and do "perish."

~~~

Gee, & I was thinking of fiat currencies in that way... How silly of me...

qqqqtrader said...

GRPN can and probably will perish before our current greenback does

oh, cv, I saw what you did with the lotto pick numbers ;)

cv said...

"oh, cv, I saw what you did with the lotto pick numbers ;)"

~~~

Yeah, me too... I picked the "wrong ones"

AmenRa said...

ISM slightly BTE. Employment part up 2.9. Bulls sniping bears as we speak. Take cover.

cv said...

Let's get baseball underway already!

~~~

Oh... and as for bold predictions (market wise)... Here's mine... The S&P will start to fall apart AFTER the North Carolina GOP primary (New Jersey at the latest ~ PLAN B)...

cv said...

But since markets aren't rigged, I'd have no way of knowing that... :-)

Andy T said...

Bucky needs to set a new low here to help keep this little down trend going....

AmenRa said...

If equity markets are closed on Friday why would they release NFP? Why not wait until the following Friday?

AmenRa said...

...or are they going to release them on Thursday?

cv said...

Bucky theme song for the next 6 weeks...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cklxu7vTSlQ

cv said...

@Amen

Would it be sacrilegious to perpetrate a "lie" (like NFP) on Good Friday?

I'm not up to date on my Catholic rules...

~~~

Hey people... I said "Catholic"... Does that mean I'm anti-semitic or something & can expect a barrage of indignant comments?

Anonymous said...

AT,

nice to see you going with some Verbiage~

excellent Chartage, as per..~
~~~

cv--

are you sure you can't find some 'other Drums' to beat ('til, past, breaking)?

AAIP

AmenRa said...

3mth Libor spiked 52bps. Friday it was 0.468. Today it's 0.520. Ruh roh.

b22 said...

"Oh... and as for bold predictions (market wise)... Here's mine... The S&P will start to fall apart AFTER the North Carolina GOP primary (New Jersey at the latest ~ PLAN B)"

CV,

you been taking classes from The Big Picture on how to make "calls" for the public?

cause brother,....... you just nailed it

AmenRa said...

Anyone ever use "balance of power", "bear power" or "bull power" indicators. I'm trying to see if they are of any use.

cv said...

@AAIP (1:25)

Tounge in cheek bitchez... Don't have a stroke...

@b22 (3:31)

Did I nail it?... I don't really know... I'm just Johnny 'gut feel'... If anyone wants to truly understand CV, they have to understand one thing (faulty or not)... I DO BELIEVE IN SPOOKS...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q4C_TFdMws

(aka ~ I think markets ~ since 2008, at least ~ are rigged ~ which is why I quit)...

How f'in Ritholtz (TBP) factors in to this I can't possibly fathom... Barry Ritholtz & myself are probably 180 degrees separate on more than half of any isolated issue)...

I make calls because I like to make calls (nfl, kentucky derby, euro, PM's, whatever)... Anybody is at liberty to "take 'em or leave 'em"...

I've made some pretty good EXACT calls in the past...

- Euro (1.29) EXACTLY on 5/4/10 75 days prior
- Green Bay to win 2011 Superbowl
- "Super Saver" to win 2010 Kentucky Derby & "Nehro" 2011
- Ag to hit $50 before $20

e made some shitty calls...

- New England to win 2012 Superbowl (How stupid I was to NOT consider that Wes Welker would make a catch when he had 2 hands on the ball in the final minutes of the game, 6 months prior)

- S&P 84 "low" 2010... How "stupid" was I... In December, 2009, on the hybrid blog, to make a prediction of the TOP (within single digit points)... but then FAIL to realize 8 months in advance that at JACKSON HOLE 2010, THE BERNANK, would basically MONETIZE DEBT IN PERPETUITY... God am I DUMB...

~~~

So WTF?.. I'm making this one now... Y'all can come at me with all your 'Neely" & 'Prechter' based waves all you want...

S&P???... Pfft!... It was S&P '90' until 1957... & before that, the S&P only started in 1923... (10 years AFTER the FED started)...

E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G is based on DOLLAR hedgemony...

- Bretton Woods was PHASE 1 (after the US, basically, won WW2)...

- Nixon put an end to that in 1971...

- Arab Oil Embargoes followed shortly thereafter...

- Bubble after bubble has been blown since...

- The US... until recently... has been able to FORCE PROJECT (militarily)... the same hedgemony for quite some time...

- That paradigm is ENDING (IMO)...

- So place your bets...

~~~

Realize that UNDERLYING all of the above (currency wise) is the RACE TO THE BOTTOM (fiat wise)...

The main contestants are:

- Dollar
- Yen
- Euro
- Yuan

It really doesn't matter who, or who not, noses in front in the backstretch... The track medic says they all will be "VANNED AWAY" before any nose actually touches the finish line...

cv said...

The reast of my day was done "productively"...

- fertilized the lawn
- moved the thyme, marjoram, sage, & oregano plants to permanent spots
- put the heather, & daffodils in the ground
- prepared some beds
- powerwashed the deck
- made some fresh pasta
- oven roasted some tomatoes
- am making some fresh homemade ravioli for dinner

Buon appetito!

b22 said...

CV,

I'm not saying your call is wrong or anything of the sort

its just the way you went about making it, very professional man!

(not kidding)

b22 said...

oh and CV, in your flaming response I really find it hilarious that somehow you think you've spent more time studying markets than Glenn Neely or Bob Prechter, and that somehow you've uncovered the secret, and surprise! its based on your fiat obsession

in your dreams.....

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.