AmenRa's Corner 2.9.12

...can prevent market melt ups based on phony Greece rumors.


Creditcane™: Banks getting off "free" from robosigning. Greece "plans" to have austerity. My type of preconditioning.


SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1344.90). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (78.43). Tested and failed SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.58).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.87).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1759.30). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3207).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.49).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Holding above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.49).



WTI
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21,55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (97.71). Dally 3LB reversal up (reversal is 96.36). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.20).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.61).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).



AAPL
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Gapped above its 0.0% retrace (476.79). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 463.97).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

22 comments:

cv said...

@Andy

guess i wasn't the only one who thot the eastwood/"halftime in america" commercial was a bit overwrought and jingoistic

The Clint Eastwood commercial was total bullshit...

I used to kind of like the guy... Now he's immediately DEMOTED to "shill"...

QQQQ said...

UNG Sets 4-For-1 Reverse Share Split

man does AAPL look ready to short... hmmm

BinT said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/10/business/global/after-accord-in-athens-uncertainties-loom-for-europe.html?_r=2&ref=business

In Europe, Stagnation as a Way of Life

"And the growth divide that already existed between wealthy northern countries and those along the southern rim has widened even more in the last year, while those toiling in what is likely to be a drawn-out recession — Greece and Portugal especially — seem to be creating a third, ultraslow zone in the euro zone.

Those weak economies will weigh on Europe for years to come. They are already helping to weaken growth in Germany and once-robust countries like France, both of which are seeing their exports to other European countries suffer."

BinT said...

http://www.indystar.com/article/20120210/SPORTS03/202100334/Colts-notebook-Peyton-Manning-throws-Duke-University?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports

Colts notebook: Peyton Manning throws at Duke University

...Goes to show what sport reporting is..not much...

This is not the first time Peyton has thrown at Duke. I had Christmas with the in-laws of my son in Nashville, big UT supporters, and we talked about Peyton throwing at Duke the week before with Cutcliffe and some old UT football grads...

Nerve injuries, the serious ones, regenerate at about 1 millimeter/day. So after the delay he's had, the information Polian released yesterday on ESPN makes me think he's probably going to do ok...it was known at Christmas the nerve was showing signs of improvement.

AmenRa said...

It appears the Greece situation is ready to implode. Expect many headlines indicating all is wel.

BinT said...

Amen,

If congress doesn't get their act together this year, and since it is an election year, I imagine they won't..., I would expect another downgrade or two before June.

And they may not matter this year either...but then again, they might.

AmenRa said...

BinT

S&P already put the US on another downgrade watch. Yet neither Moodys or Fitch has dared to touch the US...yet.

cv said...

@Bruce

What are you going to do if Manning gets traded to the RAVENS???

Bwahahaha!

Don't laugh... I've heard exactly ZERO people mention this... But it's just an idea that I have...

1. Joe Flacco will be playing out the last year of his rookie contract (so by next year, they'd be on the hook trying to re-sign him)...

2. The Ravens need a center to replace Matt Birk (who is close to retirement)... If Manning were to come to Baltimore, almost 100% Jeff Saturday would also come with him...

3. Cam Cameron (Ravens OC), as I've said numerous times needs to go... That wouldn't be a problem if Manning were to come in... Manning could also bring in an OC of his choice

4. The Ravens offensive line is solid enough to not put Manning in any danger (which would be a problem if he were to land with other teams)

5. The Ravens defense is old... So the idea that the Ravens need to adopt a "win now" attitude is stronger than ever... They've been to the AFC Championship 2 out of the last 3 years... They're a missed FG away from probably being in the SB this year...

6. Chuck Pagano (Ravens DC) just got the HC job at Indy... Caldwell (Colts head coach), just got the QB coaching job in Baltimore...

7. Baltimore & Indy, obviously, have ties...

8. The Ravens are a play away from the Super Bowl... As we speak, they're probably betyter than the Patriots or Steelers, and they're still two steps ahead of the Houston Texans...

9. Manning knows how to beat the Texans as well...

10. Reggie Wayne is a free agent and may also be able to come along in the deal...

11. Manning's BROTHER Eli just won his 2nd Super Bowl... If Peyton is still healthy, don't you think he wants another chance...

12. It's hard to think of ANY teams closer to the Super Bowl right now than the Ravens (except for ones DEFINITELY not in the market for QB's, which include: Patriots, Packers, Saints, Steelers, New York Giants, Texans, 49ers)... Most people don't consider Flacco elite & as I said before, it's the last year of his rookie contract... He could be dealt...

13. A Ravens-Giants SuperBowl, next year would be Manning vs. Manning... A Ravens-49ers SuperBowl, next year would be Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh...

Just saying...

cv said...

Assuming Manning is healthy (and that's a big IF)...

Saturday, Manning, & possibly Reggie Wayne coming to Baltimore would INSTANTLY make them the favorites to win the SuperBowl next year...

cv said...

In case you missed it...

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/News/Articles/2012/01/Press_Release_-_Jim_Caldwell_Named_Ravens_Quarterbacks_Coach.aspx

Anonymous said...

the (C)Ravens..good golly..

though, it was a +, for the NYG-Defense, that they did, afterall, 'break' Gronkowski's leg..
~~

Peyton is as likely to show up in STL, to replace Pujols (in a Fan/Media sense)..

ibid.

Random Weblog Syntax Clarifier said...

"...that they did..."

they = the (C)Ravens

cv said...

The Gronkowski play was a clean play... There was nothing malicious about it... It just happened...

cv said...

I'm not saying that Manning will end up in Baltimore...

I'm just saying that there are many reasons that it would actually make sense to consider...

It would require a lot of salary cap issues to be addressed...

The Ravens have a lot of big players signed to contracts who are vital... Haloti Ngata is probably the most important... Terrelle Suggs & Ed Reed after that (but Ed Reed may only play a few more years)...

But then you have Jarret Johnson, & Ray Rice whose contracts are up... At this point, they could probably put a franchise tag on either of those to keep them around for another year...

But still... The Ravens pay a lot for top defensive talent... That's why they lost Bart Scott & Jim Leonard to the Jets... & Adalius Thomas before that...

cv said...

@AAIP

Let me put this to you another way...

The Ravens aren't as "old" (as they're made out to be) on defense as everyone imagines... For chrissakes, the Steelers (on aggregate) are older than the Ravens...

However (& this is a big however)... The heart & soul of the Ravens defense are Ray Lewis & Ed Reed... Forget about diminishing physical skills, there is just no replacing the experience they bring in keeping a unit together...

Ray Lewis has already said that he'll play another year (but this is almost SURELY it)... Ed Reed is likely to go with him even though he's 3 years younger... Both are from "the U" so they're kind of bros...

The big thing is that NOBODY on the Ravens has a SuperBowl ring except for Ray Lewis (despite the fact that they've played in 2 out of the last 3 AFC Championships & have won more ROAD playoffs than any team in the history of the NFL...

The window is closing fast before the heart & soul of the team dissolves (yet the defense ought to still stay somewhat dominant even thereafter)...

Anyway... If you're the Ravens, you're thinking "we're 1 play away" from the SuperBowl... It starts in your own division (& they were 6-0 vs. the Steelers, Browns, & Bengals last year)... Both the Steelers & Bengals made the playoffs, so it's a tough division... Arguably, the Bengals are the team to watch out for because they are young & are now loaded with high draft picks because of the Carson Palmer trade...

What you're mainly thinking is... 4-2 in out division might make the playoffs, but we probably need to go 6-0 again (or 5-1), to get a #1 or #2 seed... The Ravens haven't lost a home game in over 3 years, so a HOME AFC Championship game would be awesome...

To get to that... they probably need to go 13-3 (& win some tiebreakers)... Besides the 6 AFC North games they play and AFC West & NFC East schedule, along with the obligatory head to head matchups vs. division winners...

Thats...

Home: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants

Away: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

I have little doubt that they can win all of their home games (at worst, lose one)...

ROAD GAMES they might find struggles in Pittsburgh, Houston, & Cincinnati... There is no other margin of error...

Oddly enough, the Ravens tend to get up for big games & slack off on EASY games... I'd be afraid of how the schedule comes out who they play right after the Steelers (actually ~ hopefully it'll end up being a tough team)...

But probably the Patriots, & Houston will also vie for "best record" status (it's unlikely that that will come from the AFC West division)... So the fact that they play New England (at home) & the Texans (on the road) is crucial...

I have little doubt that they'll beat New England at home... Houston (on the road) will be tough, but if it falls at a critical juncture, the Ravens will come to play...

Manning would be the guy in most of these crucial games to give them the edge...

cv said...

keep in mind that they only have to travel to the West Coast (San Diego), once...

Two ROAD games are less than an hour in either direction (Philly, Washington)...

cv said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manipulation-and-abuse-confirmed-350-trillion-market#comment-2146502

~~~~~

But I was led to believe that "the market" was all E-Trade babies "firing off" $7 trades on their online accounts when their "pattern recognition" software started beeping at them while they were hitting balls on the driving range...

Anonymous said...

cv--

the Ravens will it 'cut out for them', with that Schedule..

13-3 would be a great result..

Personally, I don't care where (if?) Peyton goes..

Jim Rome has been asking: "Why would he Risk it?" (any further Injury) "What does he have 'left' to Prove?"

here, I think those are Valid Q:s..

the real Tragic outcome would be for him to get Injured.

it's sad, enough, to see Troy Aikman..

I, only, hope that if He does choose to Play--it's for the 'Right' reasons (as He sees it)..

Flacco, though, does seem 'burned-out' on all of the Criticism that's been heaped his way (over the years)..

personally, I think it's been mis-placed(on him), but, again, it isn't me..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

"..E-Trade babies.."

now, with "Elite PRO"-Accounts..~

no kidding..

ibid.

cv said...

I have nothing against Flacco (& I think they can still win the SuperBowl with him)... He's won more playoff road games than any QB in NFL history (in only 4 years)...

It's just that he's yet another contract that will be coming up for renewal next year...

It would not be out of character for the Ravens to let him go... as they did with Jamal Lewis or Willis McGahee, or Todd Heap...

The first & foremost question is 'IS PEYTON HEALTHY'?... Until I see him putting on pads, I have my doubts... I have little doubt that Peyton still wants to play (& compete at a high level)...

Playing for some motley gang isn't going to cut it... I'm highly suspect of any of this talk regarding the Redskins... I could be wrong, but I just don't see it...

~~~~~

As for Jim Rome? He's a douche...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uczUKTwgqeY

cv said...

@AAIP

on... "the schedule"...

See? that's the funny thing... THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND... Which means, the "tough" games that Baltimore has to play are all at M&T Bank Stadium (zero losses in 3 years ~ wait, ONE, against the Steelers, in overtime)...

That's why I had NO PROBLEM laying 4-1 odds against Andy T coming in there with his "New Kid on the Block" Texans with a rookie QB in the playoffs...

I'll stick with THE TREND until it doesn't work anymore... Odds are that the Ravens will win 7 out of those 8 games...

Then you have to beat Browns, Chiefs, Eagles, & Redskins... (on the road)... I'll blindly say they can go 3-1 there...

How do you think I handicap the SuperBowl each year? I start IN THE DIVISION & work outwards from there, then compare that to the schedules of likely division winners...

It doesn't work perfectly, but I can get pretty close... I picked the "Colts" to win the AFC South last year (pre-season)... But that was before Manning wasn't going to play...

AmenRa said...

The bots are staging a comeback. Again.

Rumor is the bank "settlement" is not even signed. So what's with the happy talk from the government?

Italy is going to want similar haircuts.

Sissyphus is ready to throw in the towel.

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.