AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Can you hear me now? Can you hear me now? Eventually the ball stops bouncing.



SPX
Bearish short day with a long tail (body too small for hanging man & too big for doji). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1178.10). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 76.4% retrace at 76.29. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).



VIX
Bearish short day (but closed higher) again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.71). Ejected from the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1370.50).




AUDJPY
Bearish long day. Failed its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below SMA(21) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8045).



JNK
Hanging man day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.42).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Now above the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) and above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.95).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day (long tail). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 4779.72).



CRB
Bearish short day (long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 292.98).



WTI
Hanging man day (at rising wedge support). Tested and failed the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 50% retrace at 81.07. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 84.00). Rising wedge apex just ahead.


LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The QE2 Bond Report 10.27.10

More weakness in fixed income land today as a rather horrid 5y auction was met with limited enthusiasm by weary punters. Once again, HY led the pack with IG and the entire Treasury complex in the rear, and a steepener that began in the morning continued into the close after a little interruption as equities sold off in the early going. A 7y auction tomorrow.

Corpies: LQD -0.26%; AGG -0.19%; JNK -0.03%; HYG -0.11%;
Govies: TLT -0.88%; IEI -0.30%; TIP -0.62%
Hedgies: TBT 1.70%

We had a little dip into the long bond this morning at 9.55am and were out again by noon for a tiny profit as some equity punters piled in for a bit until the auction rendered the complex inedible. Can't win 'em all. We remain involved in high yield only here, and will hedge rate risk here and there until such time as Treasuries offer a decent risk/reward or spreads come in to ridiculously tight levels.



66 comments:

Leftback said...

Nicely done, Ra.

I left the Report at the other thread, and changed my icon to please the Mistress of the Sticks.

AmenRa said...

LB

Saw it and added it.

AmenRa said...

Eleven!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FFRoYhTJQQ&feature=player_embedded

LMAO

AmenRa said...

As I continue to take my mind off this sham of a market: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK7IzfLmyco&feature=player_embedded

Andy T said...

Thought this a humorous/good post at Business Insider: There's some wild shit here:

Drive Thrus

AmenRa said...

Andy T

They left off the drive thru liquor store. What is the world coming to?

Andy T said...

Yeah, the drive through liquor stores are very common now. Still trying to figure out the drive through strip club? How does that happen? $10/min? What the hell?


I watched that "Eleven" clip...pretty funny stuff there.

cv said...

@Amen

ELEVEN = LMFAO :-)

cv said...

@Mutt

There's a last post on the previous thread...

AmenRa said...

Andy T

For $10 min they'd be better off saving it and finding free p*rn sites. Just sayin'

McFearless said...

@anon, previous thread, re: M. Lewis

Make no mistake, there isn't any "structure" that matters if the intent is to prevent crisis, crisis will always happen, over and over again. That said, I am on board with the idea of privatizing firms that are trading, your incentives change, pay the employees primarily in the private stock of the company.....ala old school Solomon Brothers. The idea of the firm being "closely held" is the basis of my thoughts here.

Also, as for the Fed, my stance has never changed on this issue, the Fed should be ended, I am not in the camp that screams that they are necessary.

McFearless said...

by the low pivot today "worked".....annoying as that is for bears

Everybody's ex-girlfriend said...

@Amen (8:00)

I kno, right?

McFearless said...

@mutt,

from earlier....a nation ruled by reason

is that what the Patriot Act was, was this the proper response to 9/11?

I'm in the NO camp on that one....you want to know about how your rights can be taken away, get with the Patriot Act.

McFearless said...

also, I'm all for privatizing SS, no doubt.

If the argument is that people can't understand the market....tell me, how many people do you know that can explain how the social security system works?

McFearless said...

also, who says just because ss is privatized that people have to then put that money in the market? wouldn't that be the idea....you have options, and more importantly control.

McFearless said...

also, mutt, it's good to have you posting over here again man.

P!INK said...

@McF (8:02)

"annoying as that is for bears"

"It's bad when you annoy yourself... Don't let me get me..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asaCQOZpqUQ

McFearless said...

I'm reposting this post from newgirlinboston at Dan's site, she's always got something smart to say, this was a really good post imo:

Before getting too bullish or too bearish, people should take note how the intraday highs/lows and LOD/HOD of today align very neatly with previous pullback highs / lows and short-term trendlines of the past several trading sessions. There is little doubt in my mind that this is mechanical short-term trading and it does not represent decisive movements that would be caused (bullish or bearish) by large players stepping in and either dumping or adding to large portfolio positions. In my opinion, emotional, non-mechanical transactions of high volume cause impulsive waves at the primary, intermediate and minor levels. Everything else is best described as programmed / channeled / algorithmic / corrective.

It's not a convenient reality for predicting and trading, but we need to accept WXY-wxy waves ad nauseum until irrational impulses kick in. With all due respect for the excellent analysis seen on several E-wave websites - how many times will the 12345s and i-ii-iii-iv-vs get replaced with consonant wave letters as more price action reveals itself? How many times will an inconvenient overlap be described as a diagonal? Leading diagonals are rare, and ending diagonals are meant to correct "too far, too fast" preceding movements. I personally do not see a leading diagonal down from the summer and I do not see an ending diagonal now. I do not see any impulsive waves above the minute level. I see corrective waves until I vomit while Wall Street packages and sells get-rich-quick, structurally-flawed leveraged short ETFs, along with increased option writing (aka "trading operations income") to siphon 401ks away from an insecure public.

cv said...

@McF

x2... x10... x100 (her comments)...

I'd describe it PRECISELY that way...

In fact... I don't know if you've noticed or not, but lately, the THREAD POSTS here have become more SOCIO-METAPHORICAL in nature (rather than "chart" oriented)...

That's because I "feel" like "newgirlinboston" apparently does...

I'm kind of tired of the mechanical feel... I've expressed multiple times, recently, that it seems like OPEX, or like it's "fitting" an adjacent fractal (late 2007 has been my flavor du jour)...

Of course... I'm still INTERESTED... and I'm here to supply COLOR (to a gray trading environment)...

But until the ROBOTS "toss a horseshoe", then I don't have much to offer except to make paragons to the macro...

IOW - I'm dancing as fast as I can to make "1"'s and "0"'s, if only for a moment, ANALOG AGAIN... Just to experience the richness of what's been lost in the transition...

McFearless said...

some charts:
uempel
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16191296759&listNum=3&a=170193954

cobra:
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TMiTjQeiqbI/AAAAAAAAI-E/Rp76QkjZwYY/s1600-h/1%5B2%5D.png


shanky:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/TMbLsh_tWVI/AAAAAAAAD5Q/cfKbB35n66w/s1600/2010-04-21-TOS_CHARTS.png
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TMiTjQeiqbI/AAAAAAAAI-E/Rp76QkjZwYY/s1600-h/1%5B2%5D.png

focal equity:

http://www.focalequity.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/goog1min.png

keep an eye on that inverse H&S on goog, rejected at the neckline so far.

I guess the Fed probably loves when the worlds biggest bond manager calls them for running a Ponzi, and he's also an advisor to the govt yes?

AmenRa said...

Ben

Taking what she said and looking at recent moves a close below 1171.17 leads to 1166.92 which leads to 1159.71. Algos made sure we got close but didn't cross the threshold.

I-Man said...

Thanks for posting that Ben, thats perfect. She nailed it.

cv said...

This comment ABSOLUTELY is not "flaming"... It is, in fact, QUITE the opposite...

I just wish to draw attention to the following (and give my personal 2 cents)...

BERGSTEN (publicly & privately) has never been "other" than a PROFESSIONAL & GENTLEMAN to CV...

He's made a thread post... (link here)

http://andytsgang.blogspot.com/2010/10/honor-and-trust.html

If you feel inspired to do so... Honor him with a comment... I did...

cv said...

@Amen (9:08)

All roads... EVENTUALLY... Lead to zero... :-)

AmenRa said...

Correlation breakdown? Dollar down and futures down. Unless that's the new normal. ROW decides to hell with the dollar and US equities.

Andy T said...

ben22: I have a crush on newgirlinboston with that kind of analysis.

cv said...

@Andy T

"newgirlinboston"... ROCKS!

cv said...

@Amen

"correlation breakdown"?

No way dude... it'll never happen (as long as the "newgirlinboston" meme is in effect... NOT LOGICAL)...

"Communication Breakdown"?... Now that I can get on board with...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrSWNvHD1R8

(u gotta love this... It's the EARLS COURT version)... :-)

napoleon said...

from the newest other blog:
"We can collectively ban the worst offenders without someone getting their pants in a bunch about some imaginary "censorship" idiocy."

wtf?
as in "some animals are more equal than others"?

McFearless said...

yeah that was a classic post she made there, had to share it here. glad everyone liked it.

Andy T said...

Holy Shit. Bergsten....

"Boom Goes the Dynamite."

Interesting to see some "colors" come out. Potty-mouthed group over there.....

McFearless said...

yeah that was some post he made

AmenRa said...

You don't turn towards 2nd base unless you're going to go for it. Should've learned that in Pee Wee league.

AmenRa said...

I read that post. Geezus. It's just a blog.

AmenRa said...

There's only a 3% range on the weekly 3LB which is too compressed IMO. This is where the SPX needs to break up or down. There was almost a daily 3LB reversal but ended up closing higher. It should test the daily reversal again before making a move in either direction.

cv said...

@Andy

I'm going to say... AGAIN...

That "bergsten" has always comported himself respectfully, fairly, intelligently, and gentlemanly, towards mine own self...

cv said...

@Amen

When you turned me on to the whole 3LB thing...

Which I expressly remember... Because we were all at TBP then... and it was July... and it was hot as shit... and I was at the farm in WVA...

and I blogged a comment to you... "WTF is 3lb" (risking embarassment in the process)...

Well... I got IN TO IT after that...

And towards what you're describing now... My impressions are THE SAME (as my first impressions back then)...

The "compression" factor (whether it be hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly)... Should make somebody take NOTE...

AmenRa said...

BTW Texas is getting their ass handed to them...

AmenRa said...

CV

What's interesting is that the 23.6% and 76.4% retrace of the weekly 3LB are in line with the recent lows I posted about earlier.

ben22 said...

everyone strategizing about your vote? sitting up late at night reading each candidates proposals, checking important votes if they have a past history, their ideas on how to "fix the economy"?

c'mon...be honest

ben22 said...

I didn't know what you guys were talking about with the Charlie Sheen thing until later today when I heard on the radio, funny he's on maybe 3 billboards through philly/95 where I drove today. I couldn't escape that guy today.

Andy T said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Andy T said...

Charlie Sheen,

I'm all for live and let live, but geez...

Lay off the blow for a while.

Andy T said...

For the record, "bergsten" is NOT CNBCSucks. I can GUARANTEE that fact.

cv said...

@Andy (1:17)

OK... but bergsten is STILL cool to CV...

He's always been righteous (in buisness OR in social)...

CHARLIE SHEEN?

I kept READING all those comments today (references)... & I was, like, saying WTF?...

Frankly - I STILL don't know what went down... I guess I have to check it out...

If it involves viewing sexy Denise Richards pics, then I guess it won't be a TOTAL waste of time...

But like Forrest Gump's MOM said...

Lif is like a box of chocolates... YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GONNA GET...

karen said...

I've already mentioned that they live in two separate states.. but no one pays attention to me.. LOL..

and sorry.. newgirlinboston was a bit wordy for my taste.. again, LOL.. nothing we haven't shared here everyday..

but, ben, you should invite her here.. : )

karen said...

dying over ELEVEN!!!

karen said...

CV..they say he got upset because he thot she took his watch.. whatever.

cv said...

@karen

I consider myself a THINKING guy (especially in a metaphorical sense)...

But I have NO IDEA what you're referring to (1:39)...

cv said...

(1:36) ...lol

Eleven was HILARIOUS!

karen said...

CV.. this will help.

http://www.tmz.com/2010/10/27/charlie-sheen-stolen-watch-missing-capri-anderson-christina-walsh-plaza-hotel-bathroom/

karen said...

And, CV.. thanks for linking JB's post over here.. I never would have known..

cv said...

@karen

OK... I'm going to totally have to go after this... THIS CHARLIE SHEEN LATEST THING...

I feel like I've been out of the solar system for a MONTH now (because I STILL don't know what's going on)... EVEN IN MY CLASSES AT THE GYM (where "dish" never fails to be discussed)...

Excuse me... let me leave the planet... & I'll be back tomorrow... LOL

I'm still on the SIR GALAHAD meme (for a moment)... my bad!...

cv said...

@karen

for the umpteenth time... JB has ALWAYS comported himself as a PERFECT gentleman towards mine own self...

karen said...

(from you-know-who) Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

How can anyone be so silly as to be riveted on "Will he QE" next week?

Of course he will QE to infinity. The date he announced however does not mean a damn thing.

To throw away good gold anything on the madness of the trading crowd and algorithms is just plain STUPID.

Gold is going to $1650 and likely a great deal more. Don't join the Lemming Society.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/neil-reynolds/the-scary-actual-us-government-debt/article1773879/print/

cv said...

@karen

I'm just glad that in 2004 I bought the PHYSICAL GOLD (with real estate paper profits)... & STILL hold it... nary a redemption...

The REST of this stuff is just a joke...

It was INTERESTING to me (for awhile) which scenario would come first... The DEFLATION, or the INFLATION...

Since... I've only come to understand one thing (POLICY WISE)... That is... That THE FED... would save "it's own" BEFORE it would ever entertain the idea of trying to save THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...

Whatever you want to think... the END RESULT of that committment isn't hard to extrapolate...

As for me?

- I own the land (outright - & have claims to more)...
- I warehouse the food...
- I have access to the water supply...
- I can REPLICATE "energy demands" (in various senses)

So?... FUCK IT ALL UP!... SEE IF I CARE... :-)

karen said...

Obama on Jon Stewart?????!!!!

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/10/the_ambiguously_earnest_duo.html

karen said...

Andy made some really good comments on that TBP/Invictus "Oil's Well That Ends Well" post.. and I'm mad I didn't think of his points myself.. namely pulling some 2003 forecasts.. and poking fun at their absurdity, when those same people may have changed their tune later.. (the actual run began in 2004) was very lame.. but I've brot Invictus to the attention of this group before in utter disgust..

ben22 said...

here is the full PTJ letter if anyone is interested:

http://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/10/TudorInvestmentsLetterOctober2010.pdf

ben22 said...

I gotta say, the blow up last night, probably the best entertainment all year, and further, it was like a social mood test tube.....holy crap!

ben22 said...

I posted on the consumer confidence thread at TBP, pretty chart, but as we like to say, there is nothing new under the sun:

The all-time high for consumer confidence occurred in October 1968, with a reading of 142.3. The Dow topped two months later and lost 36% over the next 18 months. Conversely, in February of 2009, consumer confidence hit an all-time low — and the DJIA bottomed days later. In April of 2009, after the stock market rally had already started, the Conference Board consumer confidence Index leaped 45% to 39.2, the second biggest jump on record. The biggest-ever increase came in April 1974, when three-quarters of the damage from the 1972-1974 bear market was still to come.

ben22 said...

the point being, lots of people want to claim today that that is all about wall streets disconnect with main street, or that the algo's made the people do it or there is no way the market would be up without them or something along those lines......nah...it's just the way it always is.

ben22 said...

also, super interesting topic on CNBC right now about the 2G card....

cv said...

new thread up

ben22 said...

does anyone else read the Tudor letter and find it funny that anyone thinks they can model the effect of a renminbi revaluation on employment four years from today?

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