Morning Audibles 4.12.10 - Wait, did I say Audible?

In football, an "audible" is where the quarterback comes to the line of scrimmage, surveys the defense, and may decide in that moment to "audible" to an alternative play selection if he feels either that the play that was called would not be a successful one (because it appears to be properly defensed, or, if a different play might expose some weakness. Basically, when you see Peyton Manning flapping his arms around like Morris Day doing "The Bird", you know an audible is coming.

It appears that nevermore in the history of the New York Stock Exchange will an audible be required. The playbook is simple. Cover all shorts on Friday. Sleep happy and long over the weekends, and you'll wake up Monday, and be "magically" richer by owning stocks. It's really that easy folks!

So I'm not going to offer any more insights here. I'm going to K-I-S-S. Buy stocks, they go up forever! They don't even decline by 1%. If they ever do go down by 1%. Beg, borrow, and steal (kind of the way our world governments do things).

Illustration?

Greece, over the weekend. (They're the "beg" & "borrowers" - or, should I say, "first in line to do such"). But read the fine print people. Here's what was actually said. "This decision today was no decision on aid for Greece," Finance Minstry spokesman Michael Offer told Dow Jones Newswires. "But it was only about technical preconditions for aid by further specifying the decision of the heads of state and governments. We expect, we hope that Greece is now in a situation where it can continue to refinance itself on the capital markets, as previously."

What CV reads is that there was NO DECISION (until certain criteria were met). Doesn't matter... It's a reason to buy Euros, sell Dollars, and pump the S&P (while everyone was distracted watching golf - congrats Phil!).

Andy T has again given us his "technical" view on the matter. The following is a reprint of his Sunday afternoon thread (which I will make a habit of featuring as the Monday morning thread). Andy's charts offer a "calmer" picture of potential levels (and possibly durations of data points that get processed through the meat grinder which are the capital markets). Good luck people!

Lastly, CV would REALLY like to express his congrats and best wishes for Phil & Amy Mickleson and family. It was a great moment in what has been a difficult period!



---
By Andy T (April 11, 2010)

One of the very interesting developments the last several weeks has been the correlation between the Dollar and the stock market. Unlike most of last year when the DXY and the stocks/commodities were "inversely" correlated, that relationship has been broken. Basically, the "Peter Schiff/Jesse's Cafe Americain" crowd that was predicting both doom and gloom for the U.S. Dollar and the stocks have been wrong on both markets. While the Dollar strength was predictable and anticipated using technical analysis and sentiment, the associated rally in stocks and commodities has certainly been a surprise to me. It will be interesting to see how the stock market now reacts to any Dollar weakness....
This weekend's thoughts were dedicated to the DXY which has achieved all of the price and duration targets we had been expecting. It's probably time for longer term investors to take a few chips off the table. I would not advocate completely exiting long positions, but there is a decent chance of decline back to 78, giving us better levels to buy back in for the next phase of this bull market. The risk is that my count is incorrect and the market will just keep on chugging higher. For this reason, it would be prudent for longer term traders/investors to stay at least a little bit long (maybe 25-33% of a max long position?).
Traders who want to short this market should use 81.91 as a "stop loss." Alternatively, those who want to stay long this market should use 79.50 as "stop loss." That 79.50 has been good support for awhile now, hasn't it?
I don't have a report on the S&P because there's not much new here from last week. The market has not yet "peaked" and seems destined to print a 1200 handle. Short term support for the S&P futures is now 1183 and 1171. So, it won't make sense to bail on length or initiate shorts until 1171 is taken out on the futures.
Hope everyone had an enjoyable weekend. Good luck in the week ahead.
DXY Report 11 April 2010

210 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 210   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

@Nic

(from other thread)

"And the Greek tragedy continues.
First Greece says it may ask for EU loans as early as today. Then the German Govt says that the loans are only if Greece cannot raise the money themselves (they must want the EUR lower and a failed bond auction!)"


That's what I'm kind of saying above...

Officially over the weekend, there has been NO DECISION...

If you ask me... This was all a "trial balloon" to see if it would get THE MARKETS to buy Greek bonds...

I doubt it will work...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I agree Phil deserves congrats, with the family problems he's had. That said, what is wrong with golf?

The Masters...15 under par? I thought this was the ultimate test of the pro player. Remember when scores above par were the norm?

And Phil. Phat Phil. What other sport would Micklelson do so well in? Basketball? Er, no. Track, football, baseball, soccer?

Of course not. This is a game, and Tiger's athletic build looks out of place in a game played by the Walrus, John Daly, and Phil. Tiger could play 3rd base, but most of the golfers looked like they could use a dose of what atheletes in real sports use...a workout on a frequent basis.

Rant off.

CV said...

@Bruce

Perfect weather at the Masters (soft greens in the early rounds, sunny, almost NO wind)...

It's going to lead to lower scores...

On Sunday, they always leave accessible pins on the back nine (so low scores can be made if you're aggressive and don't choke)... There was NO WIND on Sunday, NONE!

Nic said...

Did you see Mickelsons shot from behind the tree???

Breakfast With Dave - http://ow.ly/1xm9s

karen said...

good morning.. weak morning.. won't hold my breath but look at tbt.. and they say hedge funds are net short the ten year? this day could get interesting.. ha! vxx green.. shocking!

karen said...

i'm going to use CEF as a proxy for gold.. broke out last week and projects 22 on a p&f chart.. GLD may be too hokey.. and the miners are all over the map.

CV said...

@Nic

That shot from behind the tree was incredible...

He missed the putt though! Grrrrr!

CV said...

@karen

FWIW - I'm biding my time here...

I really still think this could roll over any day, or any minute...

1200? So what... Even if it goes to 1220 in a couple of days, what's that? A percent and a half (which - upon rollover - gets erased on one trading hour)?

4 days to gain 20 stinkin' points on the index, 4 hours to reverse...

Leftback said...

Something changed overnight.... this doesn't look like a momo morning. Have some TBT but it's tightly stopped now. Still think we will see some risk-on play during the day.

The Masters was great. Tiger of course talked about himself. You have to like Lee Westwood - he was all smiles, basically said, he played well, Phil just played better.

I liked Phil's caddie's explanation of the shot on 13, "it's a 6-iron, 190 yds, just let me execute". UNfreakingbelievable, and of course the press would have buried him if he stuck it in the creek.

Phil won it on Saturday, really, playing 12-15. That half hour was the best golf I have ever seen from anyone.

karen said...

cv, all true! and my shipper is up over 2%, srs green, faz at a new low.. but lets see if GS can stick over 180.. it all feels so top heavy!

Mannwich said...

Good for Phil. Made some incredible shots out there yesterday. Wasn't to be denied.

That has to irritate Tiger even more that Phil won it, which makes me happier that Phil won it, of course.

CV said...

@karen

IMO - 1150 is an established left shoulder (not hard to see - I'm just stating the obvious)...

Find a head here, and be done with it...

& I think, it'll end up being a FAILED H&S...

So, perhaps down to 1120 - 1090 range for a 'correction'...

Then, when everyone thinks, it's ROLLED OVER, it'll resurrect again...

I've got the "Rasputin" images cued for June - LOL

karen said...

btw, it is so beautiful here this morning i am dumbstruck.. it rained in the night and the billowy tropical clouds are reflecting the morning light.. will try to get a better foto of my echium! as this one is at least a week old and i've got more and more and more sapphire spires!

CV said...

@LB

I gotta say... In the "interviews" after the tournament...

Lee Westwood was all smiles & very pleasant...

Tiger was "grumpy"...

CV has gained a lot of respect for Westwood, and LOST a lot for Tiger...

McFearless said...

No wonder why Andy had to include the last three words in this statement:

"So, it won't make sense to bail on length or initiate shorts until 1171 is taken out on the futures."

CV said...

My FXP (bought on Friday) is up 2.65%...

It's a "start", at least...

@LB
CV now wants Lee Westwood to win a major THIS YEAR (Pebble Beach or St. Andrews)...

CV said...

@karen

Hmmm... your "echium"

or my "kracken"...

vying for the title of best ICON...

Don't make me put it up to a vote :-)

CV said...

Alcoa up nearly 2%...

Typical BS!

CV said...

@karen

Hey karen... You like "abandoned babies"?

Look at the FXI "DAILY" CHART...

karen said...

Here's an understatement, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. may have to set aside an additional $30 billion to cover possible losses on home-equity loans, an amount almost equal to analysts’ estimates of profit at the three banks this year.

http://ow.ly/1xg8G

I-Man said...

Morning all,

I didnt catch any of the Masters this year... the Big City Classic lax tourney took my heart, and then had charts and garden to tend to. But big ups to Phil, always liked that cat.

Pretty sure the SPX prints a 1230 or so this week, at least thats what I determined over the weekend. I went through a lot of SPX charts, and couldnt really find a reason to doubt it. Except for all the obvious fundamental reasons which dont appear to matter at the moment as far as price action is concerned.

@ K

Will have to start watching this CEF, thanks for the tip. Curious if you've had a chance to look at the USO charts I did over the weekend. You always have a good feel for that market.

@ CV

I think I am going to have to respectfully decline on your offer to take up afternoon posts, just dont want to overcommit myself, and I have alot going on at the moment. Therefore, I am going to be using Dread Capital exclusively to showcase my wares for awhile, until I get some things in my "working life" straightened out. Thanks alot for the offer though, I was humbled by it, and hopefully we can collabo more in the future.

@ Nic

Will be looking through the links you posted last night, they look good.

Mannwich said...

It's hard for me to lose any MORE respect for the striped one.

karen said...

CV, fxi is not an abandoned baby.. but look at C! UFB.. it's doing that leapfrogging babies!

CV said...

@karen

I call anything that "looks" like something what it is...

I don't "split hairs" :-)

CV said...

I split "rails"

CV said...

Like these...

http://www.cedarsplitrails.com/sitebuilder/images/Snake_Rail_Fence-garden-center-654x311.jpg

CV said...

When I'm not doing my KRACKEN thing... :-)

karen said...

I-Man, I did go thru all your charts! (and think you missed your architectural calling!) I can only shake my head at USO and crude.. I'm biased! I see lots of negative divergence in the chart.. I think we are at the apex of $gaso's rising wedge on the weekly and no where to go but down this week.

CV said...

@karen

seasonality...($gaso)...

memorial day is fast approaching...

CV said...

probably getting to be about time to look at natty

I-Man said...

Which Natty?
;)

I-Man said...

OH BLOGGER...

Its too early for this shizz...

CV said...

@I-Man

Well, all the "natty"'s I consumed over the weekend aren't much to look at anymore...

That only leaves one kind left...

CV said...

@I-Man

FWIW - CV is NOT down with 1230 or so in the next couple of days...

I think this thing could roll over at any minute...

Everyone now "EXPECTS" 1200 (and higher) is a foregone conclusion...

I make a "gentlemens bet" here that we print the latest high today or tomorrow...

Disclosure:

I'm "short" SPY (with 1150 cost basis)... But not adding here

I'm long FXP (with 7.13 cost basis) - but only a minor position...

Still with near 40% cash...

karen said...

$gaso is at least 50 cents to high.. in 06, 07, 08, and 09 gaso fell in the early summer months..

Leftback said...

NATTY BO !!!

LB has decided to do "other stuff" today. So, we have hedged our bond portfolio with TBT, meaning we are more or less flat Ts today.

Therefore, if there is a Momo Meltup, we are hedged. If the World Ends, then we have a trailer on TBT, and we own Ts, so all good.

Just can't see sitting here all day waiting on the Alcoa BTE/WTE or whatever, so will check in late in the afternoon and see where we are.

Did anyone else have trouble making head or tail of the Greece deal and the resulting impact on the Euro?

Bye for now, and best wishes to all.

karen said...

Sorry Nic! just revisited last night's thread and saw that you posted that bloomberg article.. need to click that WaMu one, tho. thank! You and Ben never sleep I guess.. wish I needed less sleep to function.

CV said...

@LB (Greece Deal)

I have one thing to say... WHAT DEAL/

There was no deal... Just a lot of gum flapping about what "could" be arranged if a certain set of criteria were reached...

It was all a ruse to see if MR. MARKET would then come in an put a bid into the debt...

In the end... FAIL...

"Head's or Tails" - It means the coin landed on its side for a day or two and/or is otherwise still spinning on the table...

Nothing to see people... Go back to buying stocks...

McFearless said...

From Rosie Today:

More on US profits: Financial sector profits have accounted for 85% of the overall increase in corporate earnings.

Then, there is this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/464814/PIMCOs-Bill-Gross-Frantically-Dumping-Treasuries%2C-Thinks-U.S.-Interest-Rates-Will-Soar


Also, what's with all the comments on the boards over the weekend about how "huge" the rally has been. Last I checked, a re-trace like this is fairly common. yes, I understand the rally has been big, so was the decline, hence the size of the re-trace....

McFearless said...

sleep sucks, you miss stuff :)

Nic said...

Morgan Stanley say inverted spreads here for the long term:
http://ow.ly/1xp1P

karen said...

LOVE the Bill Gross "Frantically Dumping" article.. I forget which year is was.. the guy was SO, SO, SO wrong.. He actually had to recluse himself for a few months.. I got that info first hand. Last year was his day in the sun with government help.. this year, I pray not!

Nic said...

Karen getting up for London isn't good for me. I might take that deal from your plastic surgeon.
Your garden looks beautiful!

Leftback said...

McF: Just look at this every day, keeps me sane:

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/08/japan-during-deflationary-90s.html

karen said...

$XAD is red today.. game over soon! $USD nicely recovered from last night's (effing) low.

karen said...

oops, i meant ? not ! on "game over soon" above.

thanks for that link LB..

I-Man said...

Pimpco is too big... they have to do dumb shit like that.

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: PIMCO,

Now retail looks at PIMCO Total Return and says, wow, look, no down years since 99. Safe.

I look at that and say, he's due for a loss.....and maybe a big one.

Like I says, that fund started iffy to me when it became the biggest fund. I keep thinking of American funds.

karen said...

Nic, I do not have a plastic surgeon, laughing! and that doctor, from my previous post, was creepy. Actually consulted with two doctors and was creeped out by both! I've never even used botox.. I do now have a gorgeous friend that that has had work done. Her doctor is stellar.. I've met him and his staff.. If he emails me a discount letter, it will be tempting.

McFearless said...

"Actually consulted with two doctors and was creeped out by both!"

Bruce, why did you scare karen like that?

CV said...

@karen

Nice garden :-)...

But one of these days, for fun, indulge us with a picture of the stone wall you keep crashing your car into... -jk

Leftback said...

LB is sure that KAREN and NIC need no cosmetic amendment.

PIMCO isn't going to make any big gains or losses, too big and too many opportunities to front-run the government. Only thing that could hurt them would be a monster blow-out in yields. Not happening.

Did you see Black Rock likes the 10-yr? A few smart money folks out there who subscribe to LB's 4% ceiling idea for the 10y.

Salary increases in the real (non-WS bonus) world are going to be 1-2%. Conjure inflation or a major recovery in housing out of that...

Leftback said...

In-depth analysis from the Beeb:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/04/greece_one_day_at_a_time.html

LB agrees that a deal of ~5% probably isn't workable, and once the market works out what the rate is, then we see a repeat of the last few weeks and eventually Greece defaults anyway. We are probably in the can-kicking stage AGAIN.

Leftback said...

OK, I am really going now... :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, Karen, I missed your post, but I did another facelift Friday, and changed a couple of things. Beautiful late 40's woman, was in this morning and looks grand.

Let me give you one hint. If you are undergoing any type of personal upset right here, now is NOT the time to be making a decision about aesthetic surgery. Wait.

The other hint is don't believe what you hear in the office. Talk with the scrub techs who operate with him/her and see what they think....

Later.

karen said...

Bruce, how fun to finally learn what type of surgery you've been doing! It was several years ago that I visited two surgeons.. decided against doing anything--even the highly recommended one was scary--and I agree that NOW is NOT the time for me. My son had his nose "repaired" by dr. karam recently.. so yes, I have met everyone, including the anesthesiologist. Very, very impressive outfit.. drkaram.com if you have a curiosity! my son is even featured in the rhinoplasty section. My girlfriend goes to him for all her injectables and had a "mini" a year or two ago.. Even when she shows me where the incisions were, I can't really see them. Amazing.

karen said...

Wow, market seems to be going nowhere fast.. holding 11k tho, for those that care about the dow.

CV said...

Take a look at the $VIX.X DAILY candle (with bollinger bands)...

VERY MUCH like the January 11th candle, where it pierced the BB's to the downside (on a gap down), and the body of the candle stayed under the BB line...

CV said...

If the "fractal" from January would hold...

It would mean we'd have a couple days of HARSH ZIG ZAG's... Then, finally, a rollover...

In January, the pattern lasted 7 trading days...

McFearless said...

hey look, broken record, we are up again on no volume!

and it's monday

CV said...

In fact, In January, it played out in the exact same way...

The VIX move, co-incided with the beginning of OPEX week...

The eventual rollover came after OPEX week was completed... Both were EARNINGS SEASON OPEX weeks...

Same kind of thing happened in OCTOBER '09... That was when we hit 'karens top' (exactly 100 S&P points ago)...

June-July '09 wasn't that much different...

ALL, (per the "boxes" I published last week)... came between 51-54 days of rally... We are on day #44 now...

CV said...

@McF

Quit worrying about broken records and GET IN THERE AND BUY STOCKS YOU LAME @SS WUSSY! :-)

Nic said...

Bruce!!! Perfect, I can visit the salt mine for rejuvenation.

CV said...

@Nic

Bruce just pours a jar of Morton's Salt on your face... Then sends you a $4,000 bill... :-)

McFearless said...

C,

I did SPY for a few clients a few weeks ago. I'm completely on edge right now for having done it too.

Career Risk in both directions, how do you like that?

McFearless said...

test?

karen said...

Speaking of THE WALL, could this be LB as a young lad?

CV said...

@McF

Do you mean SPY or FXP?

CV said...

@karen

LB don't need no education!

But he DID learn this...

http://zenityerkes.deviantart.com/art/The-Wall-Pudding-and-Meat-157892683

CV said...

@Mannwich

Hey Jeff... Are you heading out to the ballpark today?

karen said...

And, CV, I didn't crash into it, just backed into it gently.. twice. But there will be no third time.

Nic, fyi, i backed my car out of the garage and scraped back bumper last August. I finally had it fixed six months later, and not two weeks go by before I back into it again. I have banished myself to the detached garage for the foreseeable future.

Nic said...

Karen, sounds like the kind of thing I do ... we have other talents ;)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen, You and CV wound me!

Couple of other things before I get away from the computer.

Be sure he's boarded by the American Board of Plastic Surgery. If he couldn't pass his boards, I don't care what you hear, go somewhere else.

Malpractice suits? Be sure he's not hiding any...

Most surgeons have a weakness. Be sure what you want done is not one of his. Some can do a very good rhinoplaty, and their meloplasties look like the first year resident did it.

Gotta run. Maybe tonight.

CV said...

Texas Stadium (former home of the DALLAS COWBOYS)
demolished... VIDEO (1 hour ago)

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/sports/article_212295027.shtml

---

Send that crew over to Wall St.

McFearless said...

C,

I can't advise clients anymore to purchase stuff like FXP, nothing inverse, nothing with leverage, this came out last year if you recall my freaking out about it, which nearly got me fired....but but, BAC....yep, that's allowed, C...even better!, it WAS SPY I bought, meaning long....I know I know. These were very large clients, so the dollar amounts have actually led to decent gains (dollar amount) for them.

I did it right after the Dow Theory confirmation, the wave count was basically unrecognizable to me at the time, not that it's much clearer now so I went with more basic TA.

McFearless said...

hopefully this shows that I'm not married to my thesis, but yes, I do want to be right, who wants to be wrong?

In the fullness of time I'll be proven right I think, until then, I have a job to do.

McFearless said...

have you all seen the pixels commerical from Nintendo? Very cool.

also, karen, did you see the Porsche that BR had on the Weekend tab at TBP. I'm too big to be comfortable in one of those but that was a sweet car.

karen said...

How in the world did I wound Bruce! I'm excited about what he does! And, yes, Dr. Karam is board certified..

Other talents.. yes, thanks.. i seem to have lost my most important one last year, tho.. and the malaise continues.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Yes, I am. My brother and I are heading out for the pre-game "festivities" (beers and bad food) shortly. Weather looks good, although not as good as the prior few days. Could get a shower later but in the 60's. Going on Wednesday and Thursday too. Sitting behind 3B today in box seats, 8 rows up (section 17).

McFearless said...

AT,

Could you point out why you will not label DXY as impulsive from the 09 lows? is it the 2's and 4's?

I took a hard look at my dollar count over the weekend and I also was looking for weakness near term but I have it as a five up. Some time frams show it better than others.

just would like to understand what you don't like about it since you can offer a lot more insight outside the traditional EWP rules.

Thanks man!

McFearless said...

Manny,

now that sounds like fun.....I looked for Phils tickets the other day, those are getting really hard to come by.

CV said...

@Manny

That sounds VERY COOL...

Always nice to "break in" a new ballpark...

Oriole Park at Camden Yards was the FIRST of this new genre that has been repeated around the league recently (but they're all very cool)...

I really like going to baseball games when the weather is nice...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Should be a fun day/week. Might as well go out and enjoy life a little, right? Will be a nice respite from the doldrums of the market. The new ballpark here is fantastic too. Better than expected. ;-)

CV said...

@Manny

I have Jon Lester (fantasy baseball), starting for my team today...

But I think you're a Red Sox fan anyway...

Mannwich said...

@cv: I love Camden Yards. Went a number of times during the first few years it was open. That one, to me, is still the standard for all newer ballparks. Pac Bell in SF (or whatever they're calling it these days) is also very good. Ditto the park in Pittsburgh, although the team is always dreadful.

CV said...

@Manny

You mean Twins fans won't "pine for the old days" with home runs off the BAGGIE? -lol

McFearless said...

"Should be a fun day/week. Might as well go out and enjoy life a little, right?"

Absolutely.

McFearless said...

All I can ever think about when I think of the Twins is Kriby Puckett

McFearless said...

kirby....

karen said...

Ben, I didn't see that post at TBP.. still can't find it.. maybe you feel you'd fit better in the Panamera.. it's perfection as well.

CV said...

@Manny

It's hard to beat the "smell" of Camden Yards with the smoke from "Boog's BBQ" filtering around the stadium...

McFearless said...

C,

How far are you from Ocean City MD?

DL said...

CV @ 12:08

Quite ominous for the (short term) bulls, I would think.

Mannwich said...

Yes, I am, cv. Big Red Sox fan, although not as crazed as I used to be. Still love a good outdoor ballgame on a good weather day. The sights, sounds and smells. Can't beat it.

McFearless said...

karen,

It's just a concept now, but here is the link, maybe a future purchase for you:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/porsche-918-spyder-hybrid-concept/

the Panamera is four doors right?

the FallingWater animation he had on there was also very cool.

I-Man said...

@ B22...

Re: that porsche
Yeah mane, thats a pretty sick whip for sure...

But give I and I a nice pickup truck, (like a 2010 F-250 King Ranch maybe, bought used of course,) and I'll feel every bit as pimp.

Gotta keep it real for all us dreadnecks out there.

:)

A Maybach Landaulet, RR Phantom, or SLR McLaren I do dream about though... but I'm way too self-conscious to ever own one. I'm a bit poor too... but that I can handle in time.

Mannwich said...

@ben: They are unveiling a Kirby statue today, I believe.

Mannwich said...

@cv: The DOME was just a HORRIBLE place for baseball. It was a joke, actually. Not real baseball in there.

McFearless said...

@I,

Man, I know they don't get any love anywhere, but a nice Corvette would be a great car to have. I've always liked the Tundra for a truck, not sure if they are any good or not, my dad always drove Ford trucks for work.

@Manny,

that guy was one of my fav's as a kid. Great player, seemed like a great guy too. So sad he passed so young.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yeah, Kirby was a beloved figure here. Like many retired pro atheletes, he had his difficulties after baseball filling that void. I really think that did him in in the end.

Mannwich said...

OK, gotta go catch the bus downtown. Will check in later!

CV said...

CV would be cool with this...

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://pictures.topspeed.com/IMG/crop/200910/boss-edition-aston-m-6_460x0w.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.topspeed.com/cars/aston-martin-v8/ke347.html&usg=__TeE37YDffGvonppU-Sn2qoV6NgY=&h=345&w=460&sz=37&hl=en&start=20&sig2=fJ06lrrR4VMd0gUldS2K3g&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=_VOL2nyeUA1bGM:&tbnh=96&tbnw=128&prev=/images%3Fq%3Daston%2Bmartin%2Bv8%2Bvantage%2Bspecial%2Bedition%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dsafari%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Den%26tbs%3Disch:1&ei=uFjDS829MYammwPjnYX-Bg

CV said...

@DL

(Re: 12:08)

Getting pretty LAZY out there (as evidenced by the comments)...

CV said...

@DL

I posted a few weeks ago (and you remember)...

The LAST two times the VIX printed under 16 were Oct '07 and May '08...

Before TODAY, of course...

McFearless said...

I'm quite bored, hence the car talk. We slow down big time the few weeks after taxes are due, will be kind of nice though.

karen said...

my shipper is up 5.5% today! (still effing underwater on it tho.) no fireworks thus far but an interesting day, nonetheless.. gold, the ten year, crude up and dollar down.. all makes for a headache.

that spyder was futuristic! thanks for that link! a bit racy for me, but very exciting. and yes, the panamera is the 4 door..

DL said...

CV @ 1:35

I've got limit orders to short ESM0, and to go long SDS, at prices very close to where we are now.

McFearless said...

yeah, futuristic, and I'm still holding out for the Jet Pak!

I-Man said...

Ha!
Wanna trade places, Ben?

On top of the normal tax time craziness... a certain insurance carrier has decided to halt new sales of our most popular fixed annuity, with a deadline for new contracts of April 15th...

Just fuckin brilliant!

Nothing revs up a salesforce like taking away their golden goose. Lets see how many app's I can process before Thursday.

CV said...

@DL

I personally think the 'set-up' is PERFECT...

Big YAWN... SPXGUF... All we have to do is wait around to print 1200 (or the 'discussed' technical levels just above [in the 1220's])...

It was the same 'set up' in January, in October, and last June...

- Most had their eye on the 'technical' number of 1172-ish (if I recall) in JANUARY

- Most were waiting for 1121 (50% retrace - back in October)...

- 960 - 72 was a highly anticipated zone back in June '09

---

In any case, WHENEVER a move happens, it's almost GUARANTEED to happen overnight... Anyone wanting to 'short' this market is going to have to ROLL THE DICE... (and sleep on it overnight)...

McFearless said...

lol I,... better limber up that writing hand, annuity apps are bad, not quite as bad as Long Term Care though. That's easily the worst.

karen said...

Sneaky state of CA.. not only did they raise sales taxes to nearly 10% in some cities, but they quietly upped vehicle registration fees! The Jetta was raised $42 from 09 to 2010.. normally, registration goes down yoy.

McFearless said...

I've certainly got no evidence of this, and I fall in LB's camp so I'm biased, my observation though is that these calls on treasuries (huge bubble, yields going way up), everyone is on the same side of the call and pretty much all for the same reason (inflation)

it seems that this group is confident that they "know for sure"

McFearless said...

Keep an eye on bankruptcy filings, they've been huge. As I'm to understand it this is common around tax time so I'm curious to see what they are as we get into summer.

Against the bond calls being wrong:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-equity-outflow-prior-week-market-goes-parabolic-36-billion-taken-out-domestic-equiti

I've never been able to find flow data like this from the GD but I wonder if this happened in 1930.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:52

"Sneaky"...?

Isn't the state of CA something like $50B in the hole, to say nothing of $300B+ in unfunded pension liabilities?

karen said...

Shocking!!! no it's worse than i reported! jetta license fee went from $129 ($215 for total registration) in 12/2008 to a license fee of $203 ($290, total.) the porsche lic fee went from $528 to $817.

DL said...

McF @ 1:55

A question of time frame.

The bond bears (i.e., those predicting higher yields) will eventually be right, but it may take a lot longer than they think.

CV said...

@McF

It isn't hard to imagine WHY they're all on the same side of the call...

Look... It's basically (INFLATE OR DIE) if you're running money (or a government)... Where the only thing worse than "mis-allocated" money is NO MONEY AT ALL...

Extend and pretend (thinking you can manage it in the process)... It's like kids playing a Monopoly game where nobody ever loses because every time you land on BOARDWALK with a hotel they just say "you can OWE me" (or they keep taking your "mortgaged" properties from you piecemeal as acceptance for payment to let the game last for a few more rolls...

For a "banker", the only way for the game to end is for the game to end... There's no real risk in being on that side of the trade because if the market CALLS them on it (which it occasionally will), they'll reshuffle the deck and keep right on playing...

DL said...

Karen @ 2:05

We should all weep for the porsche owners.

McFearless said...

C,

I actually view the calls on treasuries as a better example of extreme bullish sentiment than any reading on AAII or Investors Intel, if that makes sense.

CV said...

@ben

There are over $100B in "bill" auctions this week... Watch those...

McFearless said...

C,

I watch bills all the time for two reasons:

1. I have clients that do actually listen to me and they roll-over tbills all the time and

2. All you need to do is to watch those in order to determine when the Fed will raise rates.

DL said...

McF @ 2:10

What exactly do you mean by "calls on treasuries"...?

Are you referring to call options on TLT, or call options on Treasury bond futures, or something else?

CV said...

Did The Fed Just (Surreptitiously) Bail Out Europe?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2186-Did-The-Fed-Just-Surreptitiously-Bail-Out-Europe.html

karen said...

DL, my point was simply the ways in which the state of CA is making up for lost revenue.. ways that can't be circumvented in our black market economy. I earned that car, btw.

CV said...

Volume on the SPY today (barring any sudden surge), ought to reach 80M shares...

The only two days with LOWER volume in the past year were:

- Christmas Eve
- December 30th

And even THOSE volumes were almost higher...

DL said...

Karen @ 2:23

And all this time I thought the wealthiest 2% would pay for everything.

Silly me.

CV said...

...oh, and of course "Christmas Eve" '08

McFearless said...

DL,

ha, I guess that does sound strange and could be taken several ways. I just meant the calls people were making about the direction of treasury prices.

Generally most people think that if stocks are going up then bonds are going down, there is this whole asset allocation idea built around this completely false idea, so I think the calls for T's reflect a lot of that "bullish" sentiment, the Fed will force inflation, etc. etc. I don't even think half the people saying it are bullish in the traditional sense, it's about what they believe the Fed can do.

I-Man said...

@ K 2:23

Atta girl, Karen. Earn that whip!

CV said...

@DL

"The Wealthiest 2%", at some point will be the only SURVIVORS... As the rest of the population will be killed off due to famine & pestilence (or otherwise killing each other off for a few morsels)...

Therefore, at that point it WILL BE TRUE that the wealthiest 2% will pay for everything...

See? Obama WILL live up to his campaign promise after all!

McFearless said...

Karen,

would you ever get back into the real estate biz?

DL said...

Obama promised "change"; he gave us "change".

I don't understand what everyone is so worked-up about.

DL said...

McF @ 2:32

Probably best to wait for the next RE bubble. Not here yet.

McFearless said...

DL,

I think it's calamity that offers the best profit opps, not bubbles.

CV said...

@DL

"I don't even think half the people saying it are bullish in the traditional sense, it's about what they believe the Fed can do."

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependency back into bondage.”

---
Apparently - That notion applies to THE FED

McFearless said...

Ah, the bullet point map toward debt slavery.

DL said...

McF @ 2:36

In the stock market, yes.

But prices in the RE market can stagnate for many years in some cases.

karen said...

Ben, heck no! Now I just love the study of it.. altho I wouldn't mind building another house, or remodeling one.. I do not have the personality to manage income property either. I just want a house as a home. If I were in the top 2%, I'd live in hotels !!

CV said...

@DL

"prices in the RE market can stagnate for many years in some cases."

Yeah, there are some igloos up north that have gone for the same weight in walrus blubber for DECADES ON END now...

McFearless said...

DL,

I think you'd have to agree that while generally RE may appear weak for years that doesn't mean certain places won't provide fantastic profit opportunity. All the distressed sellers, etc. Wilber ross and others are on the same page as me here.

McFearless said...

oh boy, and to be clear, I'm certainly not an RE bull....

CV said...

@McF

A disproportionate variable in RE prices is the availability of CREDIT...

DL said...

McF @ 2:46

Being a landlord does require effort... one can hire a property manager, but the price appreciation has to be sufficient to make that option worth it.

Why don't you become a landlord there in DE...?

CV said...

@DL

I'll become a landlord in Detroit...

& send YOU around to collect rent for me... How's that? :-)

DL said...

CV @ 2:55

You can buy a house there for $1000.

McFearless said...

C,

exactly and that's the point, the person with cash can take advantage of that problem, I'm not talking about people that need to borrow, I'm talking about people that are liquid. I get the impression that karen, for example, has a little cash to push around.

DL,

I thought about it but I don't have any real interest in it and therefore I'd probably not do very well. I don't really have time either since I'm usually at work 10-12 hours per day and in DE prices haven't come down enough where if you added a prop mgr you'd make any real money. If someone was hungry enough though, and had cash, I'd bet some strategic purchases in certain areas/countries, would pay off extremely well in 20 years.

McFearless said...

See Detriot, lol, that's not what I had in mind.

McFearless said...

I think this has to qualify as the most boring day of the year thus far for markets.

is the paint dry yet?

DL said...

McF @ 2:59

"...would pay off extremely well in 20 years"

You sound like Franklin411.

McFearless said...

DL,

3:01

ha

if you say so.

AmenRa said...

Ok I'm back. had to install a bathroom sink. I see the Dow is holding on to 11k but the S&P hasn't been able to break 1200. Euro is up but not enough for a weekly 3lB reversal. Gold is down and their buying Tsys. What else did I miss?

McFearless said...

I think the key difference is that Franklin thinks he's getting a bargain on some blue chip stocks whereas I'm talking about being a vulcher that basically takes things from people for next to nothing.

is that harsh? perhaps.

CV said...

EARNINGS SEASON REPORTINGS

After the Bell Today
Alcoa
Tuesday, April 13th
- CSX
- A bunch of Leo's SOLAR names
Wednesday, April 14th
- JPM
- Yum!
Thursday, April 15th
- AMD
- Google
- ISRG
- Rio Tinto
Friday, April 16th (April OPEX close)
- BAC
- GE
- Petrobras

Next Monday
- McDonald's

CV said...

@McF

I'm VERY MUCH looking into the idea of buying more farmland here in WVA if and when a P3 starts to hit rock bottom...

People will be "starved for cash"...

CV said...

@McF

I think f411 invested all his money into OBAMA COMMEMORATIVE GOLD PLATED COIN MEDALLIONS...

- and dishes
- and figurines

McFearless said...

C,

Well, you get the point, I didn't say to buy everywhere right now, I'm talking about getting prepared. I don't feel bad taking things from people that didn't.

I still think a lot of people will have to make the choice btwn basic needs and staying in a home.

karen said...

thanks CV! ben, zapilote or vulture. AR, I doubt anything escapes you, but it is interesting don't you think? It's London Bridge day! yields down, dollar down, gold, crude, and copper.. commod currencies all down or flat.

karen said...

AR, i take that back.. you've missed DL being very crabby! lucky you!

CV said...

Back in January...

The "correction" got started about two days before BAC & GE reported... FWIW...

DL said...

CV @ 3:12

Jim Rogers says you should buy farmland right now. In Iowa, in Australia, where ever.

CV said...

@karen

Thanks for what?

I didn't say anything... I'm just sitting here bored out of my mind posting EARNINGS SEASON schedules, and trying to conjure up memories of January...

DL said...

Karen @ 3:17

I'm really not at my "crabbiest" today.

CV said...

Jim Rogers IS NOT a dumb person...

McFearless said...

I'm no pro farmer, but I don't think you can just buy farmland anywhere can you? All these guys here that plant seem to think the soil is very important, for example.

DL said...

McF @ 3:22

Well, OF COURSE, it's got to be able to produce crops of some kind.

CV said...

@McF

Absolutely...(soil)...

Even MORE important?... Water supply (access to well, or underground acquifer system...

CV said...

Can't grow crops with no water...

karen said...

CV, thanks for posting the earnings reminders, that's all. can't wait to see C's candle tomorrow.. i want triplets!

AmenRa said...

Alcoa hasn't traded above its weekly 3LB mid for 11 weeks. Which is around the last time they reported.

CV said...

@karen

I wouldn't doubt that C can "notch it up" one more as you desire...

It looks like there's ROOM on the divergence waves to do that...

DL said...

I hear that there are a lot of "farmers" in Mendocino county.

Leftback said...

Something is up. Treasuries are strong on a day when they usually are not. Will keep my hedge on for one more day, just in case there is a mad rush out of bonds into equities tomorrow after Alcoa reports. IGs are easily outperforming HY as well, so it is a bit of a flight to quality day.

As we have told you many times, JNK has not followed the SPX to new highs, despite the fact that yields on JNK are much higher than on SPX.

I-Man said...

@ Ra

So did you "go pedestal"?

karen said...

CV, what i want is another doji star between 4.50 and 4.60 tomorrow.. i don't know what that is called but it's rare! then a huge down on Wednesday.. a girl can fantasize, can't she?

CV said...

Keep in mind that GOOG gave it's EARNINGS REPORT (in January) on Jan 21st...

That was in the "meat" of the first selloff wave (which really began in earnest on 1/20)...

GOOG, had made a "high" on January 4th and NEVER retraced to the top...

Likewise, recently GOOG made a high on March 12th (and is STILL below that number - while the $SPX is almost 50 points higher - that was 1150, folks)...

- C is up about 30% since then
- AIG about 25%

Just saying...

Nic said...

Uh oh, contrarian indicator:
http://ow.ly/1xyjS

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Nah. Replaced a wall mount with a vanity. Wall mount was ancient and the old lock nuts acted like they were put on with cement.

karen said...

No way could they come out with that cover right now.. i want to throw up! !

CV said...

@Nic

How about THIS as a contrarian indicator: (I almost barfed reading it)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36322393/ns/business-businessweekcom

By Mike Dorning

WHY OBAMANOMICS IS WORKING

updated 12:58 p.m. ET, Fri., April 9, 2010

EXCERPTS:

A Bloomberg national poll in March found that Americans, by an almost 2-to-1 margin, believe the economy has gotten worse rather than
better during the past year. The Market begs to differ. While President Obama's overall job approval rating has fallen to a new low of
44 percent, according to a CBS News Poll, down five points from late March, the judgment of the financial indexes has turned resoundingly
positive. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up more than 74 percent from its recessionary low in March 2009.


Commodity prices have surged. International currency markets have been bullish on the dollar for months,
raising it by almost 10 percent since Nov. 25 against a basket of six major currencies. Housing prices have stabilized. Mortgage rates are low.
"We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board,"


the economy is growing again, jumping to a 5.6 percent annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009
as businesses finally restocked their inventories.


the Business Roundtable's measure of CEO optimism reached its
highest level since early 2006, and in March the economy added 162,000 jobs


For most of the past two decades, the reigning economic approach in Democratic circles has been Rubinomics, a set of priorities
fashioned in the 1990s by Bill Clinton's Treasury Secretary, Robert E. Rubin, the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs.


It is worth stepping back to consider, in cool-headed policy terms, this put the country on a path to prosperity.

Obama has riled Wall Street with occasional bursts of
populist rhetoric, such as his slamming of "fat cat bankers" on 60 Minutes last December.


The Obama team, he continues, navigated the financial crisis while never
losing sight of the importance of private enterprise and private markets (a point Obama stressed in his Feb. 9 interview with
Bloomberg BusinessWeek). "A lot of people on the left were urging them to nationalize banks. Instead they injected capital, and
now they're pulling capital out. That looks more like Rubinomics than a set of socialist or left-wing economic policies."
The Obama economic team looks a lot like Rubin's, too; three of its most prominent members — Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner,
National Economic Council Chairman Larry Summers, and White House budget director Peter Orszag — are Rubin protégés.


In short, Obama's instincts during the crisis were exceedingly Rubin-esque.

CV said...

It's all RUBIN-OMICS...

LMFAO!

Leftback said...

Karen said: "a girl can fantasize, can't she?"

Now that your shoes are back, LB can fantasize too...!

McFearless said...

Ah, the old cover indicator, that would seem like a good one too.

DL said...

CV @ 3:49

The journalists at MSNBC worship the ground that Obama walks on.

Nic said...

Earnings estimates for this week if anyone wants:
http://ow.ly/1xyvj

McFearless said...

please, "Obama's instincts" his personal finances reveal he's nothing but a dunce when it comes to money management, he was told what to do.

CV said...

Well,

If it hadn't been for this late day "profit taking"... SPY volume might not have reached 100M shares today...

LOL

CV said...

@McF

Dude probably can't even balance a checkbook...

They should have AT LEAST started him out in the mail room for crying out loud!

Nic said...

CV look at SPY vol on Jan 11th high

Leftback said...

Dudes, not sure I can compete with this, should LB hang up his boots?

http://www.thebondgurl.com/

McFearless said...

I'm getting sick of this "injected capital" nonsense.

Injected debt....that's what it is...just because they've "pulled it out" and decided to "spend it elsewhere" doesn't make it something else.

I-Man said...

@ Ra

Only asked because I did the same a few months ago, but removed an old school vanity, in favor of a pedestal. It was a fun remodel actually.

AmenRa said...

Nic

I check earnings estimates here: http://earningswhispers.com/calendar.asp

They have a whisper number of $0.08 for AA.

Leftback said...

LB HATES hates hates the start of earnings season.....

Everything is gamed. Game the gamers, fade the moves.

CV said...

I gotta go ladies & gents...

Way to HANG IN for another day!

Remember... AMEN RA'S DAILY CANDLE WRAP is on at 5PM from now on...

CV off to the gym... Lata! :-)

AmenRa said...

All the market cared about today was closing above 11k. Nothing else mattered.

McFearless said...

but LB, all the smart new posters at TBP know the market is cheap because of forward p/e's?

what do you mean it's gamed?

SNARK !!!!

DL said...

AmenRa,

There's still 1200 to be conquered.

Leftback said...

Forward P/Es is the territory of Yahoo Finance types.

COGNOS has made 85% a year for the last 57 years, remember.

AmenRa said...

LB

LOL a break in to steal Lil Wayne's gold teeth. Ways to profit from the gold bubble.

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